Modelling has played a key role in the evolution of insights on the Waterloo Moraine groundwater system as a water source for Waterloo Region. As models evolved over the last four decades, so did new insights. Starting from a simple layer-cake concept, models eventually became three-dimensional, while the focus changed from well interference to multi-layer analysis, capture zone delineation, wellhead protection areas, groundwater age and the prediction of impact due to various land uses and threats. An important insight gained was that the reliability of predictive methods depends heavily on the travel paths from source to receptor, which in turn depend on the connectivity between the various hydrogeologic units – i.e. the conceptual model. The elusive issue of predictive uncertainty in the delineation of well capture zones is approached at two scales: the local scale representing uncertainty due to heterogeneities within the individual aquifer units, and the global scale representing different conceptualizations and scenarios, where the latter is found to be the dominant uncertainty. In the case of a multi-scenario analysis involving scenarios of equal plausibility, the precautionary approach can be used to arrive at a conservative prediction. Practical applications provide insights on the dynamics of groundwater systems, the impact of changes and threats being imposed and the effectiveness of mitigation measures, as well as the time scale at which threats and mitigation measures act. These insights should help hydrogeologists to use models more effectively, and to better understand and manage predictive uncertainties that inevitably arise in dealing with complex groundwater systems such as the Waterloo Moraine.
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