Well-documented Population Research Articles

Training Pathways in Critical Care Cardiology: Competencies and Considerations for Cardiologists.

Critical care cardiology (CCC) is a rapidly developing field undergoing a renaissance of interest and growth to meet the well-documented population shift in the cardiac intensive care unit (CICU). With this has come the emergence of novel training paradigms that seek to combine specialties with meaningful overlap. The benefit of having critical care expertise in the CICU has been clearly established; however, there is no formal or uniform CCC training pathway. Contemporary approaches seek to provide appropriate clinical and procedural experience while minimizing opportunity cost. The combination of additional cardiology subspecialties, specifically advanced heart failure or interventional cardiology, has been demonstrated. Educational tracks that integrate critical care training have generated interest but have not yet manifested. CCC training strives to meet the needs of an increasingly sick and diverse patient population while preparing trainees for fulfilling and meaningful careers. The hope is for ongoing development of novel training pathways to satisfy evolving needs.

New extralimital breeding records of saltmarsh sparrows (Ammospiza caudacuta) and Nelson's sparrows (Ammospiza nelsoni) and their implications.

Saltmarsh (Ammospiza caudacuta) and Nelson's (A. nelsoni) sparrows are sister taxa that breed in tidal marshes along the coast of the Northeastern United States and Canada. The Saltmarsh Sparrow breeds from mid-coast Maine south to Virginia, while the Acadian Nelson's Sparrow breeds from the Canadian maritime provinces south to northern Massachusetts. Here, we present three extralimital observations of breeding Saltmarsh (n = 2) and Nelson's (n = 1) sparrows. In 2021 and 2022, we observed Saltmarsh Sparrow females attending nests at Mendall Marsh, ME, and Milbridge, ME, respectively, approximately 60 and 110 km beyond the documented northern extent of the Saltmarsh Sparrow breeding range. In 2022, we observed a breeding-condition male Nelson's sparrow singing in the upriver portion of a marsh on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, approximately 115 km beyond the previously documented southern extent of the Nelson's Sparrow breeding range. We confirmed morphological species identification using a panel of microsatellite DNA loci. Due to both the well-documented population declines of these species in the region and the intensity of sampling effort undertaken in recent years, we suggest that these observations likely are not indicative of range expansion. However, they do indicate that these 2 taxa have the capacity to use and successfully reproduce in marshes well beyond their established breeding limits. Our findings provide novel insight into the potential for these taxa to occur and successfully breed outside their documented breeding ranges. Given increased interest in their conservation, these results support the idea that management actions aimed at creating or maintaining nesting habitat across both species ranges could benefit both taxa.

Designing a Wastewater-Based Epidemiology Study at the U.S. Air Force Academy: Using Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 to Test a Sentinel System forEarly Disease Outbreak Detection.

The presence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) in wastewater has been proposed as a sentinel surveillance epidemiological tool for detection of infectious disease at a community level and as a complementary approach to syndromic surveillance of infectious disease outbreaks. We have designed a study to test the presence and quantity of SARS-CoV2, the virus responsible for COVID19, in the wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) of the U.S. Air Force Academy. Wastewater samples were tested in the laboratory to quantify the amount of SARS-CoV2 RNA using reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Raw SARS-CoV2 viral titer in wastewater was normalized to the viral titer of a fecal marker, pepper mild mottle virus, to correct for dilutions. Temporal and spatial trends of COVID19 were analyzed. Furthermore, we compared wastewater analysis results against clinical data to assist public health decisions. Preliminary data suggest that wastewater analysis can provide temporal and spatial trends of COVID19. The geographically discrete WWTF at the U.S. Air Force suggests that wastewater testing is a useful approach to developing a comprehensive sentinel surveillance system. Together with ongoing syndromic surveillance data, this proof-of-concept study seeks to determine whether early detection of SARS-CoV2 in a closed system WWTF correlates to changes in community and clinically reported COVID19. The well-documented population served by the geographically discrete WWTF at the U.S. Air Force Academy may serve to better elucidate the adjunctive role of wastewater testing in a comprehensive surveillance system. These results may be of particular interest to the DoD and local commanders given the WWTFs under their immediate control and the information that these studies may provide in support of operational readiness through early detection of disease outbreaks.

Effects of local domestication warrant attention in honey bee population genetics

Honey bees, Apis mellifera, have for millennia been managed and exploited by humans and introduced into most suitable regions worldwide. However, given the lack of records for many introduction events, treating A. mellifera populations as native would predictably bias genetic studies regarding origin and evolution. Here, we used the Dongbei bee, a well-documented population, introduced beyond the natural distribution range approximately 100 years ago, to elucidate the effects of local domestication on animal population genetic analyses. Strong domestication pressure was detected in this population, and the genetic divergence between Dongbei bee and its ancestral subspecies was found to have occurred at the lineage level. Results of phylogenetic and time divergence analyses could consequently be misinterpreted. Proposing new subspecies or lineages and performing analyses of origin should thus strive to eliminate anthropogenic effects. We highlight the need for definitions of landrace and breed in honey bee sciences and make preliminary suggestions.

Country-wide genetic monitoring over 21 years reveals lag in genetic recovery despite spatial connectivity in an expanding carnivore (Eurasian otter, Lutra lutra) population.

Numerous terrestrial mammal species have experienced extensive population declines during past centuries, due largely to anthropogenic pressures. For some species, including the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra), environmental and legal protection has more recently led to population growth and recolonization of parts of their historic ranges. While heralded as conservation success, only few such recoveries have been examined from a genetic perspective, i.e. whether genetic variability and connectivity have been restored. We here use large-scale and long-term genetic monitoring data from UK otters, whose population underwent a well-documented population decline between the 1950s and 1970s, to explore the dynamics of a population re-expansion over a 21-year period. We genotyped otters from across Wales and England at five time points between 1994 and 2014 using 15 microsatellite loci. We used this combination of long-term temporal and large-scale spatial sampling to evaluate 3 hypotheses relating to genetic recovery that (i) gene flow between subpopulations would increase over time, (ii) genetic diversity of previously isolated populations would increase and that (iii) genetic structuring would weaken over time. Although we found an increase in inter-regional gene flow and admixture levels among subpopulations, there was no significant temporal change in either heterozygosity or allelic richness. Genetic structuring among the main subpopulations hence remained strong and showed a clear historical continuity. These findings highlight an underappreciated aspect of population recovery of endangered species: that genetic recovery may often lag behind the processes of spatial and demographic recovery. In other words, the restoration of the physical connectivity of populations does not necessarily lead to genetic connectivity. Our findings emphasize the need for genetic data as an integral part of conservation monitoring, to enable the potential vulnerability of populations to be evaluated.

Inferred family structure and dispersal patterns of a Critically Endangered species, Pinna nobilis, using molecular analyses: implications for conservation

Knowledge of the genetic structure and dispersal patterns for keystone and vulnerable species is essential to the establishment of conservation strategies. Since autumn 2016, the Critically Endangered Pinna nobilis bivalve has suffered mass mortality events throughout the Mediterranean Sea, causing mortality of up to 100% in affected populations. To propose appropriate reintroduction programs for its recovery, the present study sought to determine the genetic structure and local dispersal patterns from a well-documented population of P. nobilis. Using 19 microsatellite markers, we obtained genotypic information for 771 individuals from 9 localities within Cabrera National Park (CNP). The CNP population of P. nobilis was a single and homogeneous population, with nearly half of the sampled individuals being related through 333 half-sib and 14 full-sib relationships. The siblings belonged to 126 different family clusters composed of 2-8 individuals recruited during several recruitment events from up to 4 different localities. No evidence was found to suggest that the population was self-sustaining, since no parent-offspring dyad was found. However, the fine-scale dispersal patterns observed in Santa Maria Bay highlight the importance of this locality for the sustainment of the population as a whole. These findings suggest that the CNP could be a good choice for future reintroduction programs. Future studies that compile data from this and other studies conducted in CNP should be considered when modeling for reintroduction.

Repeated long-range migrations of adult males in a common Indo-Pacific reef shark

The grey reef shark, Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos, is one of the most abundant coral reef sharks throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, this species has been critically impacted across its range, with well-documented population declines of > 90% attributed to human activities. A key knowledge gap in the successful implementation of grey reef shark conservation plans is the understanding of large-scale movement patterns, along with the associated biological and ecological drivers. To address this shortfall, we acoustically monitored 147 adult and juvenile grey reef sharks of all sexes for more than 2 yr across the New Caledonian archipelago, West Pacific. Here, we document multiple adult males undertaking return journeys of up to nearly 700 km in consecutive years. This constitutes the first evidence of repeated long-range migrations for this species. Although only a limited number of adult males were definitively tracked undertaking migrations, similar timing in changes in the detection patterns of a further 13 animals, mostly adult males, suggests this behavior may be more common than previously thought. The paucity of evidence for juvenile migrations and timing of adult movements suggest that mating is the motivation behind these migrations. Our results have important implications for management, given the potential of mature individuals to recurrently travel outside managed or protected areas. Future management of this species clearly needs to consider the importance of large-scale migratory behaviors when developing management plans.

Assumption-versus data-based approaches to summarizing species' ranges.

For conservation decision making, species' geographic distributions are mapped using various approaches. Some such efforts have downscaled versions of coarse-resolution extent-of-occurrence maps to fine resolutions for conservation planning. We examined the quality of the extent-of-occurrence maps as range summaries and the utility of refining those maps into fine-resolution distributional hypotheses. Extent-of-occurrence maps tend to be overly simple, omit many known and well-documented populations, and likely frequently include many areas not holding populations. Refinement steps involve typological assumptions about habitat preferences and elevational ranges of species, which can introduce substantial error in estimates of species' true areas of distribution. However, no model-evaluation steps are taken to assess the predictive ability of these models, so model inaccuracies are not noticed. Whereas range summaries derived by these methods may be useful in coarse-grained, global-extent studies, their continued use in on-the-ground conservation applications at fine spatial resolutions is not advisable in light of reliance on assumptions, lack of real spatial resolution, and lack of testing. In contrast, data-driven techniques that integrate primary data on biodiversity occurrence with remotely sensed data that summarize environmental dimensions (i.e., ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling) offer data-driven solutions based on a minimum of assumptions that can be evaluated and validated quantitatively to offer a well-founded, widely accepted method for summarizing species' distributional patterns for conservation applications.

Inheritance of reduced Varroa mite reproductive success in reciprocal crosses of mite-resistant and mite-susceptible honey bees (Apis mellifera)

A well-documented population of honey bees on Gotland, Sweden is resistant to Varroa destructor mites and is able in some way to reduce the mite’s reproductive success. The aim of this study was to determine the genetic and maternal contribution to the inheritance of the reduced mite reproductive success trait in this population. Four genotypic groups of colonies were established by crossing the mite-resistant population of Gotland with a mite-susceptible population in Uppsala, Sweden, through artificial insemination of reared queens with drone semen. All the colonies in groups with a genetic origin from the resistant population expressed reduced mite reproductive success regardless if the genetic origin was maternal, paternal or both, and no statistical differences were observed between the reciprocal crosses. These results strongly imply a dominant genetic component to the trait’s inheritance, as opposed to maternal effects or epigenetic mechanisms, and that the trait can be easily produced through selective breeding using the mite-resistant Gotland bee stock.

L’homme de Tautavel. Un Homo erectus européen évolué. Homo erectus tautavelensis

One hundred and forty-eight human remains have been discovered during excavations carried out between 1964 and 2014 in la Caune de l’Arago, in Tautavel, in the Eastern Pyrenees. They come from a detailed stratigraphic context comprising 15 archaeostratigraphic units with human presence, with ages ranging from 550 ka for unit Q at the base, to 400 ka for unit C at the top (OIS 14 to 10). During this long period of time, Man experienced two cold and dry climatic periods (stratigraphic complexes I and III), separated by a humid-temperate period (stratigraphic complex II). Most of the human remains come from units F and G, in stratigraphic complex III, associated with a cold and windy steppic environment. The human remains were mixed with the archaeological material and waste from hunted and consumed fauna. The inventory of human remains comprises a majority of cranial elements, and in particular, the anterior portion of a skull, Arago XXI, discovered on 22 July 1971, which revealed the physical aspect of the first Europeans for the first time. The remains are made up of 5 mandibles, 123 teeth (isolated or still on the alveolar arch), several post-cranial skeletal fragments: 9 upper limb elements, 19 lower limb elements, representing 30 deceased individuals, comprising 18 adults and 12 children. The study of these fossils relates them to Asian and African forms of Homo erectus, as they display common characteristics. This observation raises questions as to the existence of this group in Europe. The contribution of the collection of human fossils from Arago thus presents a threefold interest; paleontological, population-based and behavioural. The multiple remains allow us to assess the biodiversity and the composition of this small population. These remains present original features in comparison to Mauer, the classical Homo heidelbergensis European ancestor. The Arago fossils display archaic characteristics not observed on the Mauer mandible; in particular, the great anteroposterior extension of the convex arch toward the fore, the large proportions of the premolars and of the M2, the high robusticity index of the mandible body, the sub-horizontal alveolar planum and the slightly inclined prominent mylohyoidian line. The face of the skull is not yet reduced to allow for the expansion of the brain, a process which develops at a later stage. The skull is low, with an extended frontal, very marked facial prognathism and a powerful masticatory apparatus with temporal crests and a prominent torus angularis, conveying a pantagonal coronal cross-section, contrasting with the regular convexity observed on the skulls from La Sima de los Huesos and Neanderthals. A comparative analysis with the well-documented population discovered in La Sima de los Huesos shows that the latter fossils are more evolved and are more similar to the Neanderthal shape, and at the same time, not very different from the Mauer mandible. The currently known European human fossils point to the following scenario: Homo georgicus, a similar form to the habilis-rudolfensis group, bearing pre-Oldowan and Oldowan technology, was present at the gateways of Europe approximately 1.8 Ma ago. From 1.2–0.8 Ma onwards, the somewhat fragmentary records from Atapuerca, Elefante, Gran Dolina-TD6, could be related to this first lineage. The first Homo erectus with biface cultures to leave Africa arrived at the gateways of Europe some 1.2 Ma ago, as shown by the discovery of the Kocabaş skull cap in Anatolia, similar to the fossils from Buia in Eritrea and Daka in Ethiopia, dated to about 1 Ma. From 0.55 Ma, the set of 148 human remains, and in particular the skull Arago XXI, point to the presence of a new, well-documented form (distinct from Mauer). We propose to relate these remains to Homo erectus tautavelensis, thereby giving this subspecies a geographic connotation. The morphofunctional and cultural characteristics of Homo erectus tautavelensis represent the stock of a long European lineage, leading to the emergence of Neanderthals.

Do nuclear DNA and dental nonmetric data produce similar reconstructions of regional population history? An example from modern coastal Kenya.

This study investigates whether variants in dental morphology and nuclear DNA provide similar patterns of intergroup affinity among regional populations using biological distance (biodistance) estimates. Many biodistance studies of archaeological populations use skeletal variants in lieu of ancient DNA, based on the widely accepted assumption of a strong correlation between phenetic- and genetic-based affinities. Within studies of dental morphology, this assumption has been well supported by research on a global scale but remains unconfirmed at a more geographically restricted scale. Paired genetic (42 microsatellite loci) and dental (nine crown morphology traits) data were collected from 295 individuals among four contemporary Kenyan populations, two of which are known ethnically as "Swahili" and two as "Taita;" all have well-documented population histories. The results indicate that biodistances based on genetic data are correlated with those obtained from dental morphology. Specifically, both distance matrices indicate that the closest affinities are between population samples within each ethnic group. Both also identify greater divergence among samples from the different ethnic groups. However, for this particular study the genetic data may provide finer resolution at detecting overall among-population relationships.

Contrasting genetic structure of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) across a latitudinal divide

The Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) is recovering from well-documented population declines that occurred during the 20th century. Little is known about the genetic impact of these declines in northern Britain and the current understanding of otter genetic structure in Britain is incomplete. This study reexamines genetic structure in Scotland, one of the otter's major strongholds in the United Kingdom, and combines data with a published microsatellite data set from the remainder of the United Kingdom to produce the 1st comprehensive assessment of genetic structure across the entirety of mainland Britain. We show that there is a remarkable contrast in genetic structure of otters in northern Britain compared to the south. Population fragmentation and high levels of genetic structure were typical of southern Britain, whereas in the north we observed a virtually panmictic population. These results imply very different demographic histories of otters in these 2 regions. Our findings also suggest a more favorable environment for the Eurasian otter in recent times in the north of the United Kingdom, possibly linked to human population density and anthropogenic habitat impacts. This study therefore provides a complete description of population genetics of the Eurasian otter in the United Kingdom, and allows inferences to be made regarding the relative importance of landscape characteristics on the recovery of otter populations.

Foraging behavior, prey distribution, and microhabitat use by bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus in a tropical atoll

The study of habitat use by top predators is important for understanding community interactions and is necessary for sound ecosystem management. In marine systems, top predators such as sharks and cetaceans have a strong impact on the structure and function of communities. While the observation of habitat use and foraging behavior of most marine predators is logistically difficult, bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus offer less of a challenge due to visible surface behavior and well-documented populations. We examined bottlenose dolphin behavior in relation to microhabitat classes at Turneffe Atoll, Belize. The dolphins were found to feed proportionally more in boundary microhabitats, areas where dense seagrass beds adjoined open sand flats, than in other microhabitats. Fish density, particularly schools of grunts (family Haemulidae), were higher in the boundary microhabitat than in seagrass or sand microhabitats. Extensive acoustic recordings yielded few fish calls, suggesting that passive listening for soniferous fish was not the dominant means of diurnal prey detection. The dolphins’ disproportionate use of boundary microhabitats for feeding was likely due to the abundance and accessibility of prey.

Hospital Admissions for Childhood Asthma After Smoke-Free Legislation in England

To assess whether the implementation of English smoke-free legislation in July 2007 was associated with a reduction in hospital admissions for childhood asthma. Interrupted time series study using Hospital Episodes Statistics data from April 2002 to November 2010. Sample consisted of all children (aged ≤14 years) having an emergency hospital admission with a principle diagnosis of asthma. Before the implementation of the legislation, the admission rate for childhood asthma was increasing by 2.2% per year (adjusted rate ratio 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.03). After implementation of the legislation, there was a significant immediate change in the admission rate of -8.9% (adjusted rate ratio 0.91; 95% CI: 0.89-0.93) and change in time trend of -3.4% per year (adjusted rate ratio 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96-0.98). This change was equivalent to 6802 fewer hospital admissions in the first 3 years after implementation. There were similar reductions in asthma admission rates among children from different age, gender, and socioeconomic status groups and among those residing in urban and rural locations. These findings confirm those from a small number of previous studies suggesting that the well-documented population health benefits of comprehensive smoke-free legislation appear to extend to reducing hospital admissions for childhood asthma.

Prenatal and Perinatal Characteristics Associated with Pediatric-Onset Inflammatory Bowel Disease

The majority of studies that report early life risk factors for pediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) do not account for potential confounding, which can lead to spurious associations and incorrect inferences. To assess the relationship between prenatal and perinatal characteristics and the risk of pediatric-onset IBD accounting for potential confounding. We conducted a nested case-control study of 189 cases aged ≤18 years and 3,080 age- and membership-matched controls born at a Kaiser Permanente Northern California facility between 1984 and 2006. The cases were diagnosed with IBD between 1996 and 2006 and diagnosis was confirmed by chart review. We obtained prenatal and perinatal characteristics from the electronic clinical records of the mother and child. Conditional logistic regression was used to assess the associations between these factors and risk of incident IBD, Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis. In analyses accounting for confounding, maternal IBD (odds ratio [OR] 5.1, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 2.0-12.9) and white race (OR 2.3, 95 % CI 1.6-3.2) were the only factors statistically associated with pediatric-onset IBD. Maternal respiratory infection during pregnancy (OR 2.0, 95 % CI 1.0-4.0), age < 20 years (OR 2.0, 95 % CI 0.8-4.7) and gestational hypertension (OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.0-2.7) were associated with pediatric-onset IBD, but did not achieve statistical significance. Maternal history of IBD and race were the only characteristics of those that we examined that were associated with the development of pediatric IBD in this well-documented population of cases and matched controls.

Left Out at Sea: Highly Migratory Fish and the Endangered Species Act

Of the nearly 2,000 threatened and endangered species protected by the Endangered Species Act (ESA), not one is a highly migratory fish. Despite well-documented population declines in many species of highly migratory fish over the past fifty years, including tuna, marlin, and shark, no highly migratory fish has ever been listed for protection. In light of current controversy over the proposed protection of Atlantic bluefin tuna under international and domestic law, this Comment seeks to explore reasons for the curious absence of any protection for highly migratory fish under the ESA. Specifically, this Comment will examine how societal perceptions and values of fish as commercial commodities perpetuate a statutory and administrative regime that militates against the protection of highly migratory fish under the ESA.

Les neuropathies optiques au cours de la maladie de Behçet : à propos de 18 cas

Introduction The objective of this study was to analyse the incidence and the main characteristics of optic neuropathy in Behçet's disease. Methods A retrospective review of a well-documented population of 376 Tunisian patients with Behçet's disease was performed. All patients fulfilled three or more criteria defined by the International Study Group for Behçet's Disease. The diagnosis of optic neuropathy was based on the clinical examination, visual field, visual evoked potentials and retinal angiography. Results Eighteen patients (4.7 %) presented an optic nerve involvement. The mean age at presentation of these patients (10 men and nine women) was 39.11 ± 12.9 years (range 17 to 73). The mean vision at presentation was 4.2/10 ± 2.9, the vision was less than 1/10 in 34.5 % of eyes. The optic neuropathy was anterior in 89 % cases (26 eyes, 90 %), posterior in one case (2 eyes, 7 %); one patient (1 eye, 3 %) presented an optic atrophy. The optic neuropathy was associated with other ocular lesions in 13 cases (72.2 %). It was an inflammatory neuropathy in four cases (22.3 %) and a stasis papilledema complicating a benign intracranial hypertension in five cases (27.8 %). Corticosteroids were administrated in 17 cases (94.4 %), cyclophosphamide in six cases (33.3 %) and anticoagulant therapy in one patient (5.6 %). After a mean duration of 79 months (range: three months to 12 years), a third of the patients (8 eyes, 27.5 %) have a visual loss. Conclusion Optic neuropathy is a rare ocular involvement in Behçet's disease. It can be related to an inflammatory neuropathy, a stasis papilledema complicating a benign intracranial hypertension or an ischemic neuropathy. The association of optic neuropathy with other ocular lesions could be responsible for a diagnostic delay. Its treatment relies on systemic corticosteroids and immunosuppressive drugs. The prognosis remained poor, with a third of the patients having lost their sight.

Functional groups of rare plants differ in levels of imperilment

Comparative examination of a large sample of plant species can reveal important aspects of life history that influence the ecology and distribution of taxa and their vulnerability to local extinction. We investigated whether functional groups of 71 rare plant species with contrasting life history traits differed in terms of population losses over time, regional range contraction, and range-wide levels of imperilment. Using town-level occurrence data from herbaria and Natural Heritage Program databases, we characterized species' extents of occurrence as α-hulls encompassing the centroids of New England towns that contained well-documented populations of these rare taxa. Family affiliation was used as a covariate in analyses to reduce phylogenetic bias. Disparate functional groups of plants differed both in proportions of populations lost and declines in range areas over time, with insect-pollinated taxa, upland (vs. wetland) taxa, species with localized seed dispersal modes, and taxa reaching their northern range boundary in New England significantly more imperiled than other functional groups. These techniques permit a broad comparative assessment of the distribution of large numbers of plant taxa, so that we can identify several functional groups that warrant more concerted conservation attention.

Lifestyle‐ and diet‐related factors in late‐life depression—a 5‐year follow‐up of elderly European men: the FINE study

Late-life depression is one of the main health problems among elderly populations and a key element of healthy ageing. Causal relationships of lifestyle- and diet-related factors in late-life depression are unclear. This study investigates prospective associations of lifestyle- and diet-related factors with development of categorically defined late-life depression in a well-documented population of elderly European men. Altogether 526 not-demented and not-depressed European men aged 70-89 at baseline were included in the analyses. The association of lifestyle-related and dietary factors with development of categorically defined depression (> =48/80 on the Zung Self-rating Depression Scale) was assessed in a follow-up of 5 years. Eleven percent (n=59) of the men developed depression during follow-up. An independent association with development of depression was found for baseline depressive status [Odds Ratio (OR) 1.19, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.10-1.28, p<0.001], a decline in serum total cholesterol level between study years (OR 1.76, 95%CI: 1.01-3.04, p=0.045), physical activity (OR 0.97, 95%CI: 0.94-1.00, p=0.022) and moderate alcohol intake (OR 0.35, 95%CI: 0.14-0.87, p=0.023) but not for dietary factors. This study of a well-documented population of elderly European men confirms that physical activity and moderate alcohol consumption may protect against depression in the old-old. Our results are the first to suggest that a decline in serum cholesterol level may predict development of late-life depression. As the effects of age, medication and incipient cognitive decline could not be entirely ruled out; this finding must be interpreted with care.

2007 MURDER RATES IN NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA

In an earlier estimation of the murder rate for New Orleans, Louisiana, for 2006, I concluded that the best population data available translated the 162 recorded homicides into a 2006 murder rate of 96.6 per 100000—a record high. An alternative measure of 72.5 per 100 000 can be calculated using the US Census Bureau’s 2006 midyear population estimate of 223 388 for the city.2 This US Census Bureau population estimate for midyear 2006 is much higher than the other systematic and well-documented estimates undertaken during 2006. Well-documented population estimates for 2007 are not available, but voter turnout in the fall 2007 and 2003 elections alongside population extrapolations can provide an upper bound to population size in New Orleans in the fall and summer of 2007 and a lower bound for the 2007 murder rate. If turnout had been the same in both elections, this would imply a maximum New Orleans population of 291045 on October 20, 2007. Backward projection using the growth rate implied by this figure and the US Census Bureau 2006 midyear population estimate provides a maximum (highest plausible) population estimate of 273382 for New Orleans in July 2007. The 209 recorded homicides translate to a minimum murder rate of 76.4 per 100000. If one accepts the low figure of 72.5 for the 2006 murder rate, which many city government leaders do, the murder rate in New Orleans during 2007 was higher than that in 2006 by no less than 5% and higher than that in 2004 (the last full year before Hurricane Katrina) by no less than 34%. The above 2007 population figures should be considered upper-bound estimates for the following reasons: the 2007 election took place in a smaller city (where turnouts are higher3), on a day with perfect weather, with the significance of election outcomes never greater, and with substantial post–Hurricane Katrina demographic shifts toward groups more likely to vote. This estimate, based on the assumption of “no difference in turnout,” resulted in the highest plausible population figures for 2007, and the resulting murder rate is the lowest it plausibly could be. In other words, the true population size is most likely to be lower, and the true murder rate is most likely to be higher. The murder rate for New Orleans remains stubbornly elevated at extraordinarily high levels since Hurricane Katrina and has yet to begin a decline to even prestorm levels, which were very high in the first place.