2007 MURDER RATES IN NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA

Abstract

In an earlier estimation of the murder rate for New Orleans, Louisiana, for 2006, I concluded that the best population data available translated the 162 recorded homicides into a 2006 murder rate of 96.6 per 100000—a record high. An alternative measure of 72.5 per 100 000 can be calculated using the US Census Bureau’s 2006 midyear population estimate of 223 388 for the city.2 This US Census Bureau population estimate for midyear 2006 is much higher than the other systematic and well-documented estimates undertaken during 2006. Well-documented population estimates for 2007 are not available, but voter turnout in the fall 2007 and 2003 elections alongside population extrapolations can provide an upper bound to population size in New Orleans in the fall and summer of 2007 and a lower bound for the 2007 murder rate. If turnout had been the same in both elections, this would imply a maximum New Orleans population of 291045 on October 20, 2007. Backward projection using the growth rate implied by this figure and the US Census Bureau 2006 midyear population estimate provides a maximum (highest plausible) population estimate of 273382 for New Orleans in July 2007. The 209 recorded homicides translate to a minimum murder rate of 76.4 per 100000. If one accepts the low figure of 72.5 for the 2006 murder rate, which many city government leaders do, the murder rate in New Orleans during 2007 was higher than that in 2006 by no less than 5% and higher than that in 2004 (the last full year before Hurricane Katrina) by no less than 34%. The above 2007 population figures should be considered upper-bound estimates for the following reasons: the 2007 election took place in a smaller city (where turnouts are higher3), on a day with perfect weather, with the significance of election outcomes never greater, and with substantial post–Hurricane Katrina demographic shifts toward groups more likely to vote. This estimate, based on the assumption of “no difference in turnout,” resulted in the highest plausible population figures for 2007, and the resulting murder rate is the lowest it plausibly could be. In other words, the true population size is most likely to be lower, and the true murder rate is most likely to be higher. The murder rate for New Orleans remains stubbornly elevated at extraordinarily high levels since Hurricane Katrina and has yet to begin a decline to even prestorm levels, which were very high in the first place.