Abstract Background The Canadian Paediatric Society (CPS) recommends an enhanced 18-month well-baby visit incorporating a developmental screening tool to stimulate discussion with parents, and notes that a widely used tool is the Nipissing District Developmental Screen (NDDS). For early detection of autism spectrum disorder, the CPS notes that a commonly used screening tool is the Infant Toddler Checklist (ITC). Objectives To examine the predictive validity of the ITC and NDDS at the 18-month visit using later neurodevelopmental consultation as the criterion measure; and examine whether positive developmental screening was associated with health care utilization (HCU). Design/Methods Using a prospective design, parents completed the ITC and the NDDS at the 18-month visit in primary care practices. Seven types of HCU were collected from health administrative databases, via linkage using the child’s health insurance number, including: neurodevelopmental consultation, special paediatric consultation, scheduled primary care visit billings, unscheduled primary care or minor visit billings, other non-primary care visit billings, hospitalizations, and emergency department visits. Covariates included child and family characteristics. We calculated screening test properties (using neurodevelopmental consultation as the criterion) and used multivariable negative binomial regression to estimate rate ratios (RR) for each of the 7 types of HCU. Results For both the ITC (n=1460) and NDDS (n=802) cohorts, mean age at screening was 18 months and mean age at follow up was 8 years. Of the ITC cohort, 11% were screen positive, 2.6% had a neurodevelopmental consultation. A positive ITC had 40% sensitivity (95% CI 24%-57%), 90% specificity (95% CI 88%-91%), 10% false positive rate (95% CI 9%-12%). A positive ITC was associated with 6 of 7 types of HCU, including neurodevelopmental consultation (RR=2.78, 95% CI 1.37-5.67). Of the NDDS cohort, 36% were screen positive, 2.5% had a neurodevelopmental consultation. A positive NDDS had a sensitivity of 50% (95% CI 27%-73%), specificity of 65% (95% CI 61%-68%), false positive rate of 35% (95% CI 31%-40%). A positive NDDS was associated with only 1 of 7 types of HCU: unscheduled primary care or minor visit billings 1.24 (95% CI 1.01, 1.53, p=0.04). Conclusion The predictive validity of the ITC was stronger than the NDDS due to high specificity and low false positive rates. The low sensitivity of the ITC is similar to other screening tools used at 18 months, highlighting the importance of ongoing developmental surveillance. The false positive rate of the NDDS is unacceptably high for a screening tool.
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