Welfare Cost Of Inflation Research Articles

The simple macroeconometrics of the quantity theory and the welfare cost of inflation

The quantity theory of money hypothesizes that the price level is determined through the equilibration of money supply and demand. Predicated on this causal structure, a single-equation error correction model decomposes from a larger vector autoregressive system so as to make available bounds tests for a levels relationship that are robust to the univariate integration properties of the variables. This model is estimated using three monetary aggregates and two money demand specifications, for U.S. and U.K. annual data over the past century and quarterly post-WWII data. The classic homogeneity propositions of the quantity theory are testable, and are found to be most compatible with U.S. annual M2 using log-log money demand with structural change permitted. Nevertheless, the resulting welfare costs are similar to those yielded by the U.K. annual data, being less than one percent of GDP at interest rates experienced during the past century.

The Welfare Cost of Inflation in a Steady State: An Application of Various Utility Functions in the Sidrauski Model

The Welfare Cost of Inflation in a Steady State: An Application of Various Utility Functions in the Sidrauski Model

Welfare cost of inflation, when credit card transaction services are included among monetary services

Abstract We investigate the welfare cost of anticipated inflation, when the volume of credit card transactions is included in measured monetary service flows. We use the credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates in a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) New Keynesian model and calculate the welfare costs of inflation. The welfare costs of inflation with credit card services included are greater than without them in the New Keynesian DSGE model. Because of the complexity of the model’s dynamical structure, we are not aware of a simple explanation for the increased welfare sensitivity to inflation.

Nonlinear unemployment effects of the inflation tax

Long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. We show this using a standard monetary search model with two shocks – productivity and monetary – and frictions in both labor and goods markets. Inflation lowers the surplus from a worker–firm match, in turn making it more sensitive to both productivity shocks and further increases in inflation. We calibrate the model to match key aspects of the US labor market and monetary data. The calibrated model is consistent with a number of empirical correlations, which we document using panel data from the OECD: (1) there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated inflation and unemployment; (2) there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and unemployment volatility; (3) the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is stronger when unemployment is higher. The key mechanism through which the model generates these results is the negative effect of inflation on measured output per worker, which is likewise consistent with cross-country data. Finally, we show that the welfare cost of inflation is nonlinear in the level of inflation and is amplified by the presence of aggregate uncertainty.

Nonlinear Unemployment Effects of the Inflation Tax

<ns3:p>We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent effects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using panel data from the OECD, we document three correlations. First, there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated inflation and unemployment. Second, there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and unemployment volatility. Third, the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is not only positive, but also stronger when unemployment is higher. We show that these correlations arise in a standard monetary search model with two shocks – productivity and monetary – and frictions in labor and goods markets. Inflation lowers the surplus from a worker-firm match, in turn making it sensitive to productivity shocks or to further increases in inflation. We calibrate the model to match the U.S. postwar labor market and monetary data, and show that it is consistent with observed cross-country correlations. The model implies that the welfare cost of inflation is nonlinear in the level of inflation and is amplified by the presence of aggregate shocks.</ns3:p>

The welfare cost of inflation

This paper uses neoclassical demand theory and applied consumption analysis to calculate the welfare cost of inflation, in the context of the Bailey (1956) approach. We integrate the demand for money with the demands for consumption and leisure, estimate flexible demand functions in a systems context, and show that raising the inflation rate from 2% to 4% in the United States, would impose (on average) a welfare cost equivalent to a loss of 0.30 percent of output when money is measured by our preferred (broad) Divisia M4 monetary aggregate. We also show that the welfare cost of inflation is countercyclical and trends upward over time.

Information frictions, monetary policy, and the paradox of price flexibility

The introduction of digital price tags and e-commerce facilitates the implementation of price adjustments and thereby diminishes the degree of nominal rigidity in an economy. Is this phenomenon welfare-improving? We address this question using a multi-sector New Keynesian model with information frictions and dispersed beliefs. Increased price flexibility may decrease welfare through the dispersed belief channel and the amplified spillover effects. Dispersed beliefs create a novel channel through which the welfare cost of inflation in a sector increases with price flexibility, altering the optimal inflation index stabilization policy. A monetary policy that stabilizes the optimal inflation index mitigates this paradox.

Nonlinear Unemployment Effects of the Inflation Tax

We argue that long-run inflation has nonlinear and state-dependent e ects on unemployment, output, and welfare. Using panel data from the OECD, we document three correlations. First, there is a positive long-run relationship between anticipated inflation and unemployment. Second, there is also a positive correlation between anticipated inflation and unemployment volatility. Third, the long-run inflation-unemployment relationship is not only positive, but also stronger when unemployment is higher. We show that these correlations arise in a standard monetary search model with two shocks - productivity and monetary - and frictions in labor and goods markets. Inflation lowers the surplus from a worker-firm match, in turn making it sensitive to productivity shocks or to further increases in inflation. We calibrate the model to match the US postwar labor market and monetary data and show that it is consistent with observed cross-country correlations. The model implies that the welfare cost of inflation is nonlinear in the level of inflation and is amplified by the presence of aggregate shocks.

Information Frictions, Monetary Policy, and the Paradox of Price Flexibility

The introduction of digital price tags and online shopping may facilitate price adjustments and reduce the degree of nominal rigidity in the economy. Is this welfare-improving? We address this question in a multi-sector New Keynesian model with information frictions and dispersed beliefs. Increased price flexibility may deteriorate welfare through the dispersed beliefs channel and the amplified spillover effects. The dispersed beliefs create a novel channel through which the welfare cost of inflation in a sector increases in price flexibility, altering the optimal inflation target policy. A monetary policy that stabilizes the optimal inflation index mitigates the paradox.

Preferences, inflation, and welfare

Abstract This paper systematically examines how degrees of household risk aversion (RA) and elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) impact the welfare costs of inflation in a heterogeneous-agent environment featuring capital and essential money. Empirical evidence suggests that households have degrees of RA and EIS that differ on average from traditional values and display large amounts of dispersion. Capturing these empirical features of preference values in an otherwise standard model leads to welfare enhancements of inflation due to household substitution of money for capital. The analysis also compares the welfare implications for alternative ways to implement monetary policy.

Time-varying money demand and real balance effects

This paper presents an analysis of the stimulants and consequences of money demand dynamics. By assuming that household's money holdings and consumption preferences are not separable, we demonstrate that the interest-elasticity of demand for money is a function of the household's preference to hold real balances, the extent to which these preferences are not separable in consumption and real balances, and trend inflation. An empirical study of U.S. data revealed that there was a gradual fall in the interest elasticity of money demand of approximately one-third during the 1970s due to high trend inflation. A further decline in the interest-elasticity of the demand for money was observed in the 1980s due to the changing household preferences that emerged in response to financial innovation. These developments led to a reduction in the welfare cost of inflation that subsequently explains the rise in monetary neutrality observed in the data.

Deposit spreads and the welfare cost of inflation

High nominal interest rates are associated with high deposit spreads, which is consistent with a model where banks have monopoly power and currency and deposits are substitutes. Therefore, higher interest rates raise the implicit price of banking services, increase bank profits and attract entry into the banking sector. Taking these effects into account, a one percentage point increase in inflation has a welfare cost of 0.083% of GDP, 6.7 times higher than traditional estimates.

Time-Varying Money Demand and Real Balance Effects

This paper presents an analysis of the stimulants and consequences of money demand dynamics. By assuming that households’ money holdings and consumption preferences are not separable, we demonstrate that the interest-elasticity of demand for money is a function of the households’ preference to hold real balances, the extent to which these preferences are not separable in consumption and real balances, and trend inflation. An empirical study of U.S. data revealed that there was a gradual fall in the interest-elasticity of money demand of approximately one-third during the 1970s due to high trend inflation. A further decline in the interest-elasticity of the demand for money was observed in the 1980s due to the changing household preferences that emerged in response to financial innovation. These developments led to a reduction in the welfare cost of inflation that subsequently explains the rise in monetary neutrality observed in the data.

Tax, credit constraints, and the big costs of small inflation

This paper develops a heterogeneous‐agent overlapping generations model that examines how the neutrality of the tax system with respect to inflation depends on the price elasticity of the housing supply. The model, which endogenises house prices and rents, and which incorporates detailed tax regulations and bank‐imposed credit constraints, shows (a) inflation has large effects on the tenure arrangements of young households irrespective of the housing supply elasticity; and (b) inflation can improve the welfare of some low income young households if the supply is sufficiently elastic. The welfare costs of inflation are reduced by taxing real rather than nominal interest.

Tax, Credit Constraints, and the Big Costs of Small Inflation

This paper develops an overlapping generations model incorporating credit constraints, owner-occupier and rental sectors, and detailed tax regulations to examine how the interaction of inflation and the tax system affect the housing market. It shows that even modest rates of inflation can have very large effects on the home-ownership rates of young households, particularly at low real interest rates. This occurs even if there is a large supply response in the quantity of housing. The model suggests that the welfare costs of inflation could be ameliorated by exempting the inflation component of interest payments from income tax.

Welfare Cost of Inflation: Evidence from India

In this paper, we estimate the welfare cost of inflation (WCI) to understand how costly anticipated inflation is in India. The WCI is estimated both in partial and general equilibrium framework using consumer surplus and compensating variation approaches. Based on the quarterly data from 1996–97Q1 to 2014–15Q2, we found that the WCI at an inflation rate of 10% is ~ 0.53% of GDP. This implies that reducing inflation from 10 to 0% may result in an output gain of 0.53% of GDP. The study also shows that the WCI is an increasing function of rate of inflation and inflation elasticity of money demand. The inflation elasticity is estimated through double-log and semi-log specifications of money demand using Fisher and Seater (Am Econ Rev 402–415, 1993) long-horizon regression approach. It is found that the specification of money demand influences the magnitude of WCI.

Price Dispersion and the Costs of Inflation

The new Keynesian literature typically makes the assumption that firms always have to satisfy demand. Because this assumption is at odds with profit-maximizing behavior under Calvo pricing when long-run inflation is positive, we present a new Keynesian model that relaxes this assumption. Our model predicts that inflation causes a substantially smaller loss in effective aggregate productivity compared to a benchmark model without the possibility of rationing. Moreover, under positive inflation, firms choose smaller markups over marginal costs in our model than in the benchmark model. As a result, our analysis suggests that the standard new Keynesian model may exaggerate the welfare costs of inflation. We also show that the effects are plausible to be quantitatively important.

New monetarism with endogenous product variety and monopolistic competition

I examine the role played by endogenous variety and monopolistic competition in the long-run transmission of monetary policy. I integrate free entry, product variety and monopolistic competition into a New Monetarist framework, considering preferences that give rise to either constant or variable markups. I find that inflation generally reduces variety. Under CES preferences, firms are inefficiently small, with the inefficiency increasing with product differentiation and the extent of search frictions. The Friedman rule is the best policy under CES preferences. In contrast, with variable elasticity of demand, inflation can increase firm size, reduce markups, and raise welfare, even though output is lower. Under CES preferences, the welfare cost of inflation is high; moreover, this cost increases monotonically with the markup and is higher with endogenous variety than with a fixed product space.

Search Models of Money: Recent Advances

In this paper, we focus on the Lagos and Wright (2005) monetary search model - a workhorse in the so-called New Monetarist Economics. After describing this micro-founded yet tractable framework, we review recent developments in extending it to study a variety of issues from monetary theory to policy analysis. The topics include the role of money, credit and financial intermediation in facilitating the exchange process in decentralized economies which impeded by explicitly specified frictions, the implication of liquidity for asset pricing in monetary environments, monetary policy analysis when money is essential, welfare costs of inflation, and the interaction between money and capital accumulation in economic growth models. Besides mapping out the literature, we also provide some suggestions on how to apply the benchmark model in possible ways to generate new insights about classic topics or deal with new issues in the light of the recent financial crisis.

On the Distributive Effects of Inflation

This paper undertakes a quantitative investigation of the effects of anticipated inflation on the distribution of household wealth and welfare. Consumer Finance Data on household financial wealth suggests that about a third of the US population holds all its financial assets in transaction accounts. The remaining two-third of the US population holds most of their financial assets outside transaction accounts. To account for this evidence, I introduce a portfolio choice in a standard incomplete markets model with heterogeneous agents. I calibrate the model economy to SCF 2010 US data and use this environment to study the distributive effects of changes in anticipated inflation. An increase in anticipated inflation leads households to reshuffle their portfolio towards real assets. This crowding-in of supply for real assets lowers equilibrium interest rates and thereby redistributes wealth from creditors to borrowers. Because borrowers have a higher marginal utility, this redistribution improves aggregate welfare. First, this paper shows that inflation acts not only a regressive consumption tax as in Erosa and Ventura (2002), but also as a progressive tax. Second, this paper shows that the welfare cost of inflation are even lower than the estimates computed by Lucas (2000) and Ireland (2009). Finally, this paper offers insights into why deflationary environments should be avoided.