The welfare cost of inflation

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This paper uses neoclassical demand theory and applied consumption analysis to calculate the welfare cost of inflation, in the context of the Bailey (1956) approach. We integrate the demand for money with the demands for consumption and leisure, estimate flexible demand functions in a systems context, and show that raising the inflation rate from 2% to 4% in the United States, would impose (on average) a welfare cost equivalent to a loss of 0.30 percent of output when money is measured by our preferred (broad) Divisia M4 monetary aggregate. We also show that the welfare cost of inflation is countercyclical and trends upward over time.