Weather Research And Forecasting Single-Moment 6-class Research Articles

Rainfall Sensitivity to Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Convection-Permitting Simulations over Northwestern South America

Convection-permitting modeling allows us to understand mechanisms that influence rainfall in specific regions. However, microphysics parameterization (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes remain an important source of uncertainty, affecting rainfall intensity, occurrence, duration, and propagation. Here, we study the sensitivity of rainfall to three MP [Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6), Thompson, and Morrison] and two PBL [the Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi Niino (MYNN)] schemes with a convection-permitting resolution (4 km) over northwestern South America (NWSA). Simulations were performed by using the WRF model and the results were evaluated against soundings, rain gauges, and satellite data, considering the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over diverse regions prone to deep convection in NWSA. MP and PBL schemes largely influenced simulated rainfall, with better results for the less computationally expensive WSM6 MP and YSU PBL schemes. Regarding rain gauges and satellite estimates, simulations with Morrison MP overestimated rainfall, especially westward of the Andes, whereas the MYNN PBL underestimated precipitation in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands. We found that the uncertainty in the rainfall representation is highly dependent on the region, with a higher influence of MP in the Colombian Pacific and PBL in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands. When analyzing rainfall-related processes, the selection of both MP and PBL parameterizations exerted a large influence on the simulated lower tropospheric moisture flux and moisture convergence. PBL schemes significantly influenced the downward shortwave radiation, with MYNN simulating a greater amount of low clouds, which decreased the radiation income. Furthermore, latent heat fluxes were greater for YSU, favoring moist convection and rainfall. MP schemes had a marked impact on vertical velocity. Specifically, Morrison MP showed stronger convection and higher precipitation rates, which is associated with a greater latent heat release due to solid-phase hydrometeor formation. This study provides insights into assessing physical parameterizations in numerical models and suggests key processes for rainfall representation in NWSA.

The impacts of hail microphysics on maximum potential intensity of idealized tropical cyclone

Maximum potential intensity (MPI), which a TC may reach in certain environment conditions, can be affected by microphysical processes. Latent heat released in the process of TC development plays a significant role in it. However, the impacts of hail added both to single-moment and double-moment microphysics parameterization scheme on the MPI remain unclear. In this study, high-resolution sensitivity experiments are conducted in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model by using four bulk microphysics schemes belonging to a family, namely, WRF Single-Moment 6-Class (WSM6) scheme, WRF Double-Moment 6-Class (WDM6) scheme, WRF Single-Moment 7-Class (WSM7) scheme, WRF Double-Moment 7-Class (WDM7) scheme. Results show that SM schemes simulate the greater MPI than DM schemes. Adding hail in SM scheme increases the MPI while in DM scheme makes less difference. There is a close relationship between the MPI and the radial peak location and intensity of latent heat. The closer the latent heat peak is to the TC center and the greater the peak intensity is, the greater the MPI can be achieved. Though the presence of hail plays a cooling effect thermally, it may affect the TC structures due to the larger sedimentation speed. WSM7 scheme including hail microphysics simulates the TC with smaller size and eye wall inclination, and thus the latent heating efficiency in the eye wall is higher, which is more conducive to TC intensification. However, the larger content of hail resulting from the accretion of liquid water in WDM7 scheme brings a stronger cooling effect and probably offsets the dynamic advantage.

Assessment of physical schemes for WRF model in convection-permitting mode over southern Iberian Peninsula

Convection-permitting models (CPMs) enable the representation of meteorological variables at horizontal high-resolution spatial scales (≤ 4 km), where convection plays a significant role. In this regard, physical schemes need to be evaluated considering factors in the studied region such as orography and climate variability. This study investigates the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as CPM to the use of different physics schemes on Andalusia, a complex orography region in the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula (IP). To do that, a set of 1-year WRF simulations was completed based on two “one-way” nested domains: the parent domain (d01) spanning the entire IP with 5 km spatial resolution and the nested domain (d02) for the region of Andalusia at 1 km of spatial resolution. 12 physic schemes were examined from combinations of microphysics (MP) schemes including THOMPSON, WRF single moment 6-class (WSM6), and WRF single moment 7-class (WSM7), and different options for the convection in d01, the Grell 3D (G3), Grell-Freitas (GF), Kain-Fritsch (KF), and deactivated cumulus parameterization (OFF). The simulated precipitation and 2-m temperature for the year 2018, characterized to be a very wet year, were compared with observational datasets from different sources to determine the optimal WRF configuration, including point-to-point and station-point comparisons at different time aggregations (from annual to hourly). In general, greater differences were shown when comparing the results of convection schemes in d01. Simulations completed with GF or OFF presented better performance compared to the reference datasets. Concerning the MP, although THOMPSON showed a better fit in high mountain areas, it generally presents a worse agreement with the reference datasets. In terms of temperature, the results were very similar and, therefore, the selection of the “best” configuration was based mainly on the precipitation results with the WSM7-GF scheme being suitable for Andalusia region.

Uncertainty Quantification of WRF Model for Rainfall Prediction over the Sichuan Basin, China

The mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been widely employed to forecast day-ahead rainfalls. However, the deterministic predictions from the WRF model incorporate relatively large errors due to numerical discretization, inaccuracies in initial/boundary conditions and parameterizations, etc. Among them, the uncertainties in parameterization schemes have a huge impact on the forecasting skill of rainfalls, especially over the Sichuan Basin which is located east of the Tibetan Plateau in southwestern China. To figure out the impact of various parameterization schemes and their interactions on rainfall predictions over the Sichuan Basin, the Global Forecast System data are chosen as the initial/boundary conditions for the WRF model and 48 ensemble tests have been conducted based on different combinations of four microphysical (MP) schemes, four planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, and three cumulus (CU) schemes, for four rainfall cases in summer. Compared to the observations obtained from the Chinese ground-based and encrypted stations, it is found that the Goddard MP scheme together with the asymmetric convective model version 2 PBL scheme outperforms other combinations. Next, as the first step to explore further improvement of the WRF physical schemes, the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) approach is then adopted to quantify the impacts of several empirical parameters with uncertainties in the WRF Single Moment 6-class (WSM6) MP scheme, the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme and the Kain-Fritsch CU scheme on WRF rainfall predictions. The PCE statistics show that the uncertainty of the scaling factor applied to ice fall velocity in the WSM6 scheme and the profile shape exponent in the YSU scheme affects more dominantly the rainfall predictions in comparison with other parameters, which sheds a light on the importance of these schemes for the rainfall predictions over the Sichuan Basin and suggests the next step to further improve the physical schemes.

Atmospheric–hydrological modeling for Beijing's sub-center based on WRF and SWMM

The combination of intense climate change and rapid urbanization means that urban storms and floods capable of causing substantial economic losses are becoming one of the principal disasters that threaten sustainable urban development. Therefore, atmospheric–hydrological modeling, which could effectively extend the forecast period and support related research in regions lacking precipitation data, has received increasing attention in relation to urban hydrology. In this study, considering more comprehensive optimization of the physical parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, an atmospheric–hydrological modeling system based on the WRF model and Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was proposed and applied to Beijing's sub-center. Results showed that the cumulus parameterization scheme has greatest impact on simulation of heavy rainfall. Overall, the combination of the WRF Single-Moment 5-class scheme, Grell–Freitas scheme, Yonsei University scheme, the newer version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model, Revised MM5 Monin–Obukhov scheme, Noah land surface model, and the Urban canopy model produced the best performance. Application of the proposed system demonstrated the feasibility of simulating urban storms and floods via WRF–SWMM system, which can represent the entire process from the rainfall produced by atmospheric movements to the formation of the urban floods.

Evaluation of Simulated Winter Precipitation Using WRF-ARW during the ICE-POP 2018 Field Campaign

AbstractThis study evaluates the performance of several cloud microphysics parameterizations in simulating surface precipitation for two snowstorm cases during the International Collaborative Experiment held at the PyeongChang 2018 Olympics and Winter Paralympic Games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign. We compared four different schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, namely the double-moment 6-class (WDM6), the WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6), and Thompson and Morrison parameterizations. Both WSM6 and WDM6 overestimated the precipitation amount for the shallow precipitation system because of the substantial amount of cloud ice, mostly generated by the deposition process. The simulated precipitation amount and distribution for the deep precipitation system showed no noticeable differences in the different cloud microphysics parameterizations. However, the simulated hydrometeor type at the surface using WSM6 and WDM6 showed good agreement with observations for all cases. The accuracy of the mean mass-weighted terminal velocity of cloud ice applied in WSM6 and WDM6 is ±20%. The number concentration of cloud ice and the ice microphysics processes are newly retrieved with 1.2 times increased . For the shallow snowstorm, the precipitation amount was reduced by approximately 8% because of the inefficient deposition and its effects on the subsequent ice microphysical processes, such as the accretion of cloud ice by snow and the conversion from cloud ice to snow.

Performance of the WRF model in simulating intense precipitation events over the Hanjiang River Basin, China – A multi-physics ensemble approach

Intense precipitation events frequently occur in the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB) in China, causing major economic losses and affecting human security. Accurate precipitation simulations are sensitive to the choice of physical schemes in numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, in this study the performance of the different combinations of physical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was investigated for the HRB. Five intense precipitation events in summer during the period 2008–2011 were selected. For simulating each intense precipitation event, an 18-member multi-physics ensemble was designed by using three cumulus (CU) schemes and four microphysics (MP) schemes. The temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of the simulated precipitation were evaluated systematically by a comparison to the China precipitation analysis reference data. A quantitative analysis using the Euclidean distance metric to synthesize the evaluation results was performed. The performed uncertainty analysis suggests that the skill of precipitation simulation is more sensitive to the choice of the CU scheme and less sensitive to the choice of the MP scheme. Our analysis shows that a suitable WRF physical configuration consists of Kain-Fritsch and WRF Single-Moment 6-class, which reaches a performance similar to that of the ensemble mean method. To our knowledge, this multi-physics ensemble study is the first effort to comprehensively evaluate the applicability of the WRF model to intense precipitation simulations over the HRB. Therefore, this study potentially contributes to the improvement of climate simulations for central China.

Effects of single- and double-moment microphysics schemes on the intensity of super typhoon Sarika (2016)

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double Moment (DM) 6-class (WDM6)/WRF DM 5-class (WDM5) and WRF Single Moment (SM) 6-class (WSM6)/ WRF SM 5-class (WSM5) microphysics schemes were selected to conduct four simulation experiments for super tropical cyclone (TC) Sarika (2016) using the WRF model. Both the SM and DM schemes had little effect on TC track, but there were significantly difference in TC intensity simulations. TC simulated by the SM schemes are stronger than that by the DM ones and are also closer to the observed. The SM and DM schemes affect TC intensity through its dynamic and thermal structures. TC simulated by the SM schemes has a smaller eye, a smaller radius of maximum wind (RMW), stronger tangential wind, closer latent heating area to TC center, higher positive temperature deviation in about TC center, and thus stronger TC. The latent heating rate of condensation in the SM schemes is higher than those of DM ones. The higher latent heating areas of condensation in the SM schemes are in the inner side of the eyewall and are significantly closer to the TC center and strengthen TC. On the contrary, the higher latent heating areas of condensation in the DM schemes exist within in the outer side of the eyewall and TC weakened. For the DM schemes, since equations predicting cloud water and rain water number concentrations are added, the production rates for autoconversion and accretion are also changed. The DM schemes have distinctly different cloud water and rain water distribution characteristics when compared with the SM ones.

The Role of Polygonal Eyewalls in Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Megi (2010)

Abstract High-resolution numerical experiments for Typhoon Megi (2010) in the western North Pacific are conducted using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to understand the mechanisms of rapid intensification (RI). With a dynamically initialized vortex, sensitivity experiments are carried out focusing on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the following microphysics schemes: WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6) and WRF double-moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics with Yonsei University, Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ), and Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) 2.5-level (MN2.5) and 3.0-level (MN3) PBL schemes. The largest differences are found between WSM6-MN3 and WDM6-MN3, and we therefore examine RI mechanisms based on the results of these experiments. Prior to RI, WDM6-MN3 shows a drier environment and stronger downdrafts in the lower troposphere than in WSM6-MN3. As a result, during the RI period, WSM6-MN3 (WDM6-MN3) significantly intensifies with the minimum sea level pressure decreasing by 51 (29) hPa and the maximum surface wind increasing by 28 (12) m s−1 in 24 h. In both experiments, the maximum values of surface heat fluxes, potential vorticity (PV), radial absolute angular momentum advection, inertial stability, supergradient wind, and convective bursts inside the radius of maximum winds are frequently observed at each vertex of polygonal eyewalls in the lower troposphere. In particular, WSM6-MN3 exhibits more convective cells inside the inner-core region, a more persistent and thicker polygonal eyewall in the lower troposphere, and a more robust vertical structure of hydrometeors and vertical velocity than WDM6-MN3. This study suggests that within the inner-core region, polygonal eyewalls like WSM6-MN3 provide favorable conditions for RI.

The Use of Partial Cloudiness in a Bulk Cloud Microphysics Scheme: Concept and 2D Results

The source and sink terms of microphysical processes vary nonlinearly with cloud condensate amount. Therefore, partial cloudiness is one of the important factors to be considered in a cloud microphysics scheme given that in-cloud condensate amount depends on the cloud fraction of the grid box. An alternative concept to represent the partial cloudiness effect on the microphysical processes of a bulk microphysics scheme is proposed. Based on the statistical relationship between cloud condensate and cloudiness, all hydrometeors in the microphysical processes are treated after converting them to in-cloud values by dividing the amount by estimated cloudiness and multiplying it after the computation of all microphysics terms. The underlying assumption is that all the microphysical processes occur in a cloudy part of the grid box. In a 2D idealized storm case, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) single-moment 5-class (WSM5) microphysics scheme with the proposed approach increases the amount of snow and rain through enhanced autoconversion/accretion and increases precipitation reaching the surface.

Sensitivity of Numerical Simulations of a Mesoscale Convective System to Ice Hydrometeors in Bulk Microphysical Parameterization

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their associated cloud properties are the important factors that influence the aviation activities, yet they present a forecasting challenge in numerical weather prediction. In this study, the sensitivity of numerical simulations of an MCS over the US Southern Great Plains to ice hydrometeors in bulk microphysics (MP) schemes has been investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It is found that the simulated structure, life cycle, cloud coverage, and precipitation of the convective system as well as its associated cold pools are sensitive to three selected MP schemes, namely, the WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6), WRF double-moment 6-class (WDM6, with the double-moment treatment of warm-rain only), and Morrison double-moment (MORR, with the double-moment representation of both warm-rain and ice) schemes. Compared with observations, the WRF simulation with WSM6 only produces a less organized convection structure with a short lifetime, while WDM6 can produce the structure and length of the MCS very well. Both simulations heavily underestimate the precipitation amount, the height of the radar echo top, and stratiform cloud fractions. With MORR, the model performs well in predicting the lifetime, cloud coverage, echo top, and precipitation amount of the convection. Overall results demonstrate the importance of including double-moment representation of ice hydrometeors along with warm-rain. Additional experiments are performed to further examine the role of ice hydrometeors in numerical simulations of the MCS. Results indicate that replacing graupel with hail in the MORR scheme improves the prediction of the convective structure, especially in the convective core region.

Sensitivity of Convection Schemes and Microphysics in Mesoscale Simulations of Squall Line Observed During the AMMA Campaign Using the WRF Model

In this paper, a sensitivity study of convection schemes and cloud microphysics is performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It concerns the mesoscale simulation of the squall line observed during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis campaign on September 22nd, 2006. Four convection schemes (Kain-Fritsch, Grell-Devenyi, Tietke and New Simplified Arakawa-Schubert) and five microphysics schemes (WRF Single-Moment 3-class (WSM3), WRF Single-Moment 5-class (WSM5), WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6), Thompson and NSSL2-moment) are used. Each microphysics scheme is associated with a convection scheme, giving twenty combinations. The goal is to find the combination able to provide a realistic representation of the meteorological fields associated to the studied squall line, especially those of precipitation. The New Simplified Arakawa-Schubert convection scheme combined either with the WSM6 microphysics scheme, either with the WSM5 microphysics scheme or Thompson scheme was found to give a result closer to observation. The study also confirms that convection schemes have much more influence than microphysics on precipitation heights.

Impacts of Microphysics Schemes and Topography on the Prediction of the Heavy Rainfall in Western Myanmar Associated with Tropical Cyclone ROANU (2016)

The impacts of different microphysics and boundary schemes and terrain settings on the heavy rainfall over western Myanmar associated with the tropical cyclone (TC) ROANU (2016) are investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The results show that the microphysics scheme of Purdue Lin (LIN) scheme produces the strongest cyclone. Six experiments with various combinations of microphysics and boundary schemes indicated that a combination of WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) scheme and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) best fits to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data. WSM6-MYJ also performs the best for the track and intensity of rainfall and obtains the best statistics skill scores in the range of maximum rainfall intensity for 48-h. Sensitivity experiments on different terrain settings with Normal Rakhine Mountain (NRM), with Half of Rakhine Mountain (HRM), and Without Rakhine Mountain (WoRM) are designed with the use of WSM6-MYJ scheme. The track of TC ROANU moved northwestward in WoRM and HRM. Due to the presence of Rakhine Mountain, TC track moved into Myanmar and the peak rainfall occurred on the leeward side of the Mountain. In the absence of Rakhine Mountain, a shift in peak rainfall was observed in north side of the Mountain.

Optimal Physics Parameterization Scheme Combination of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for Seasonal Precipitation Simulation over Ghana

Seasonal predictions of precipitation, among others, are important to help mitigate the effects of drought and floods on agriculture, hydropower generation, disasters, and many more. This work seeks to obtain a suitable combination of physics schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for seasonal precipitation simulation over Ghana. Using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as forcing data, simulation experiments spanning eight months (from April to November) were performed for two different years: a dry year (2001) and a wet year (2008). A double nested approach was used with the outer domain at 50 km resolution covering West Africa and the inner domain covering Ghana at 10 km resolution. The results suggest that the WRF model generally overestimated the observed precipitation by a mean value between 3% and 64% for both years. Most of the scheme combinations overestimated (underestimated) precipitation over coastal (northern) zones of Ghana for both years but estimated precipitation reasonably well over forest and transitional zones. On the whole, the combination of WRF Single-Moment 6-Class Microphysics Scheme, Grell-Devenyi Ensemble Cumulus Scheme, and Asymmetric Convective Model Planetary Boundary Layer Scheme simulated the best temporal pattern and temporal variability with the least relative bias for both years and therefore is recommended for Ghana.

Evaluation of double-moment representation of ice hydrometeors in bulk microphysical parameterization: comparison between WRF numerical simulations and UND-Citation data during MC3E

The influence of double-moment representation of warm-rain and ice hydrometeors on the numerical simulations of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) over the US Southern Great Plains has been evaluated. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the MCS with three different microphysical schemes, including the WRF single-moment 6-class (WSM6), WRF double-moment 6-class (WDM6), and Morrison double-moment (MORR) schemes. It is found that the double-moment schemes outperform the single-moment schemes in terms of the simulated structure, life cycle, cloud coverage, precipitation, and microphysical properties of the MCS. However, compared with UND-Citation observations, collected during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), the WRF simulated ice hydrometeors with all three schemes do not agree well with the observations. Overall results from this study suggest that uncertainty in microphysical schemes could still be a productive area of future research from perspective of both model improvements and observations.

Numerical simulation and analysis of the April 2013 Chicago Floods

Summary The weather event associated to record Chicago floods on April 2013 is investigated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Observations at Argonne National Laboratory and multi-sensor (weather radar and rain gauge) precipitation data from the National Weather Service were employed to evaluate the model’s performance. The WRF model captured the synoptic-scale atmospheric features well, but the simulated 24-h accumulated precipitation and short-period temporal evolution of precipitation over the heavy-rain region were less successful. To investigate the potential reasons for the model bias, four supplementary sensitivity experiments using various microphysics schemes and cumulus parameterizations were designed. Of the five tested parameterizations, the WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) graupel scheme and Kain–Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterization outperformed the others, such as Grell–Devenyi (GD) cumulus parameterization, which underestimated the precipitation by 30–50% on a regional-average scale. Morrison microphysics and KF outperformed the others for the spatial patterns of 24-h accumulated precipitation. The spatial correlation between observation and Morrison-KF was 0.45, higher than those for other simulations. All of the simulations underestimated the precipitation over northeastern Illinois (especially at Argonne) during 0400–0800 UTC 18 April because of weak ascending motion or small moisture. All of the simulations except WSM6-GD also underestimated the precipitation during 1200–1600 UTC 18 April because of weak southerly flow.

Numerical simulations of heavy rainfall over central Korea on 21 September 2010 using the WRF model

On 21 September 2010, heavy rainfall with a local maximum of 259 mm d−1 occurred near Seoul, South Korea. We examined the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in reproducing this disastrous rainfall event and identified the role of two physical processes: planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics (MPS) processes. The WRF model was forced by 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final analysis (FNL) data for 36 hours form 1200 UTC 20 to 0000 UTC 22 September 2010. Twenty-five experiments were performed, consisting of five different PBL schemes—Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), Quasi Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE), Bougeault and Lacarrere (BouLac), and University of Washington (UW)—and five different MPS schemes—WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6), Goddard, Thompson, Milbrandt 2-moments, and Morrison 2-moments. As expected, there was a specific combination of MPS and PBL schemes that showed good skill in forecasting the precipitation. However, there was no specific PBL or MPS scheme that outperformed the others in all aspects. The experiments with the UW PBL or Thompson MPS scheme showed a relatively small amount of precipitation. Analyses form the sensitivity experiments confirmed that the spatial distribution of the simulated precipitation was dominated by the PBL processes, whereas the MPS processes determined the amount of rainfall. It was also found that the temporal evolution of the precipitation was influenced more by the PBL processes than by the MPS processes.

Evaluation of and Suggested Improvements to the WSM6 Microphysics in WRF-ARW Using Synthetic and Observed GOES-13 Imagery

Abstract Synthetic satellite imagery can be employed to evaluate simulated cloud fields. Past studies have revealed that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) single-moment 6-class (WSM6) microphysics scheme in the Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) produces less upper-level ice clouds within synthetic images compared to observations. Synthetic Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-13 (GOES-13) imagery at 10.7 μm of simulated cloud fields from the 4-km National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) WRF-ARW is compared to observed GOES-13 imagery. Histograms suggest that too few points contain upper-level simulated ice clouds. In particular, side-by-side examples are shown of synthetic and observed anvils. Such images illustrate the lack of anvil cloud associated with convection produced by the 4-km NSSL WRF-ARW. A vertical profile of simulated hydrometeors suggests that too much cloud water mass may be converted into graupel mass, effectively reducing the main source of ice mass in a simulated anvil. Further, excessive accretion of ice by snow removes ice from an anvil by precipitation settling. Idealized sensitivity tests reveal that a 50% reduction of the accretion rate of ice by snow results in a significant increase in anvil ice of a simulated storm. Such results provide guidance as to which conversions could be reformulated, in a more physical manner, to increase simulated ice mass in the upper troposphere.

Intercomparison of Bulk Microphysics Schemes in Model Simulations of Polar Lows

Abstract Four spiraliform polar lows, two over the Sea of Japan and two over the Nordic Seas, were simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Five mixed-phase bulk microphysics schemes (BMS) provided with WRF were run respectively in order to compare their performance in polar low simulations. The observed cloud-top temperatures (CTTs) were compared with the model simulations. Precipitation rates estimated by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and gauge-calibrated surface radar precipitation estimates around Japan were also used for validation. Although definitive validation is not possible with the available data, results from the WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) scheme appear to reproduce the cloud and precipitation processes most realistically. The model produced precipitation intensities comparable to validation products over the Sea of Japan. However, in the Nordic Seas cases, all five schemes produced significantly more precipitation than the AMSR-E estimates even though the latter estimates are known to average slightly high in the same region when validated against monthly totals measured at Jan Mayen Island (Norway).

Development of an Effective Double-Moment Cloud Microphysics Scheme with Prognostic Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) for Weather and Climate Models

Abstract A new double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) Microphysics scheme, which is based on the WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6) Microphysics scheme, has been developed. In addition to the prediction for the mixing ratios of six water species (water vapor, cloud droplets, cloud ice, snow, rain, and graupel) in the WSM6 scheme, the number concentrations for cloud and rainwater are also predicted in the WDM6 scheme, together with a prognostic variable of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration. The new scheme was evaluated on an idealized 2D thunderstorm test bed. Compared to the simulations from the WSM6 scheme, there are greater differences in the droplet concentration between the convective core and stratiform region in WDM6. The reduction of light precipitation and the increase of moderate precipitation accompanying a marked radar bright band near the freezing level from the WDM6 simulation tend to alleviate existing systematic biases in the case of the WSM6 scheme. The strength of this new microphysics scheme is its ability to allow flexibility in variable raindrop size distribution by predicting the number concentrations of clouds and rain, coupled with the explicit CCN distribution, at a reasonable computational cost.