Weather-related Risks Research Articles

The weather-stains of care: Interpreting the meaning of bad weather for front-line health care workers in rural long-term care

This paper addresses the gap in health services and policy research about the implications of everyday weather for health care work. Building on previous research on the weather-related challenges of caregiving in homes and communities, it examines the experiences of ‘seasonal bad weather’ for health care workers in long-term care institutions. It features a hermeneutic phenomenology analysis of six transcripts from interviews with nurses and personal support workers from a qualitative study of institutional long-term care work in rural Canada. Focussing on van Manen's existential themes of lived experience (body, relations, space, time), the analysis reveals important contradictions between the lived experiences of health care workers coping with bad weather and long-term care policies and practices that mitigate weather-related risk and vulnerability. The findings contribute to the growing concern for rural health issues particularly the neglected experiences of rural health providers and, in doing so, offer insight into the recent call for greater attention to the geographies of health care work.

Self-organizing radial basis neural network for predicting typhoon-induced losses to rice

The issue of the typhoon-induced economic losses to rice is investigated. In this study, we propose a hybrid self-organizing radial basis (SORB) neural network for estimating economic losses of rice for the whole Taiwan as well as three sub-regions. The data sets of 143 typhoon events from 1961 to 2008 were collected and analyzed. Data include rice losses and typhoon-related meteorological factors. A number of different input combinations of meteorological and temporal variables are implemented to select the optimal network for predicting the losses, and a two-stage clustering method is used to explore the spatial classification of 15 counties in Taiwan into three sub-regions. The simulation results indicate that the constructed SORB network has a great ability to capture the relationship between typhoon-related variables and rice losses. Furthermore, the SORB model also demonstrates its outstanding reliability and predictability for efficiently providing a valuable reference for counties in Taiwan that could protect farmers from exposure to increasing weather-related risk and accelerate the official decision making process on compensation for rice losses after the invasion of typhoons.

Integrating local and scientific weather knowledge as a strategy for adaptation to climate change in the Arctic

As the climate warms, stressors are developing that challenge the adaptive capabilities of Arctic peoples. In Nunavut, one of Canada’s Arctic territories, increased weather variability and changes in physical and climatic conditions are having profound effects on residents. One problem is that while these changes have magnified risks associated with travel and land-based activities, individuals lack sufficiently reliable and useful information on which to base decisions. In this paper, we argue that weather-related risk assessment can be improved by integrating local and scientific weather knowledge and making this information accessible to residents through the creation of weather hazards impact advisory groups. We present a qualitative case study of Iqaluit, the capital of Nunavut, using data from participant observation and semi-structured interviews conducted with indigenous and non-indigenous long-term residents in summer 2009. We examine how long-term residents of Iqaluit acquire, perceive, and use both local and scientific weather knowledge. We find that various barriers, such as a lack of land-based experience, cultural and linguistic differences, and an absence of social networks, prevent most people from obtaining all the information required to make fully informed decisions about the risks associated with land-based activities at different locations. Experienced hunters are perceived to be a reliable source of weather-related information, while scientific weather knowledge is not as accessible or informative as it could be. Increasing the potential use of traditional and scientific hazardous weather knowledge, by making both more universally accessible, can enhance strategies for adapting to climate change in the Arctic.

Assessment of weather-related risk on chestnut productivity

Abstract. Due to its economic and nutritional value, the world production of chestnuts is increasing as new stands are being planted in various regions of the world. This work focuses on the relation between weather and annual chestnut production to model the role of weather, to assess the impacts of climate change and to identify appropriate locations for new groves. The exploratory analysis of chestnut production time series and the striking increase of production area have motivated the use for chestnut productivity. A large set of meteorological variables and remote sensing indices were computed and their role on chestnut productivity evaluated with composite and correlation analyses. These results allow for the identification of the variables cluster with a high correlation and impact on chestnut production. Then, different selection methods were used to develop multiple regression models able to explain a considerable fraction of productivity variance: (i) a simulation model (R2-value = 87%) based on the winter and summer temperature and on spring and summer precipitation variables; and, (ii) a model to predict yearly chestnut productivity (R2-value of 63%) with five months in advance, combining meteorological variables and NDVI. Goodness of fit statistic, cross validation and residual analysis demonstrate the model's quality, usefulness and consistency of obtained results.

Index Insurance for Pro-Poor Conservation of Hornbills in Thailand

This study explores the potential of index insurance as a mechanism to finance community-based biodiversity conservation in areas where a strong correlation exists between natural disaster risk, keystone species populations, and the well-being of the local population. We illustrate this potential using the case of hornbill conservation in the Budo-Sungai Padi rainforests of southern Thailand, using 16-y hornbill reproduction data and 5-y household expenditures data reflecting local economic well-being. We show that severe windstorms cause both lower household expenditures and critical nest tree losses that directly constrain nesting capacity and so reduce the number of hornbill chicks recruited in the following breeding season. Forest residents’ coping strategies further disturb hornbills and their forest habitats, compounding windstorms’ adverse effects on hornbills’ recruitment in the following year. The strong statistical relationship between wind speed and both hornbill nest tree losses and household expenditures opens up an opportunity to design wind-based index insurance contracts that could both enhance hornbill conservation and support disaster-affected households in the region. We demonstrate how such contracts could be written and operationalized and then use simulations to show the significant promise of unique insurance-based approaches to address weather-related risk that threatens both biodiversity and poor populations.

Index insurance for pro-poor conservation of hornbills in Thailand

This study explores the potential of index insurance as a mechanism to finance community-based biodiversity conservation in areas where a strong correlation exists between natural disaster risk, keystone species populations, and the well-being of the local population. We illustrate this potential using the case of hornbill conservation in the Budo-Sungai Padi rainforests of southern Thailand, using 16-y hornbill reproduction data and 5-y household expenditures data reflecting local economic well-being. We show that severe windstorms cause both lower household expenditures and critical nest tree losses that directly constrain nesting capacity and so reduce the number of hornbill chicks recruited in the following breeding season. Forest residents' coping strategies further disturb hornbills and their forest habitats, compounding windstorms' adverse effects on hornbills' recruitment in the following year. The strong statistical relationship between wind speed and both hornbill nest tree losses and household expenditures opens up an opportunity to design wind-based index insurance contracts that could both enhance hornbill conservation and support disaster-affected households in the region. We demonstrate how such contracts could be written and operationalized and then use simulations to show the significant promise of unique insurance-based approaches to address weather-related risk that threatens both biodiversity and poor populations.

Decadal forecasting

In this report of an RMetS meeting in February, Nick Dunstone and Doug Collins from the Hadley Centre cover a few points that take us beyond the article above. Full details of the presentations can be found at: http://www.rmets.org/events/meeting/archive.php Trevor Maynard of Lloyd&'s gave an overview of insurance industry needs. Some of the largest insurance losses are caused by climate-related events, with record claims coming from hurricane Katrina in 2005. Catastrophe (CAT) models are key tools for assessing risk and would benefit from skilful climate predictions to ensure stability of insurance premiums. Realistic disaster scenarios are also being developed, many of which focus on weather-related risks. The insurance industry is keen to encourage further research and collaboration to improve risk management, and Lloyd&'s have recently introduced an annual Science of Risk Prize (http://www.lloyds.com/scienceofrisk). Adam Scaife highlighted the successful prediction that 2010 would more likely than not be the warmest year on record for global surface temperature, and described recent work showing skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency and ongoing research into the prediction of extremes. Adam and Ed Hawkins both highlighted the importance of the high-latitude North Atlantic region, shown both in modelling studies and statistical predictions. This is consistent with the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, identified using multi-model reanalyses and prediction experiments. A strong message throughout the meeting was the need for careful analysis of accuracy and reliability in order to build confidence in decadal predictions. Tim Palmer stressed that ‘reliability’ has an exact meaning: if an 80% probability is forecast for an event, then over a long series of forecasts the event should occur 80% of the time. Andy Challinor outlined the End-to-end Quan-tification of Uncertainty for Impacts Prediction (EQUIP, http://www.equip.leeds.ac.uk) project, which aims to assess and improve the treatment of uncertainty and develop risk-based prediction for decision making. Several speakers discussed potential improvements in decadal forecasts. Ed Hawkins suggested that optimal perturbations might improve forecast reliability. Len Shaffrey outlined some of the potential benefits of higher resolution seen in the HiGEM model for improving the mean state in the equatorial Pacific and for storm development and tracking. Adam Scaife showed that higher horizontal resolution improves the simulation of blocking, and a better representation of the stratosphere improves the simulation of important teleconnections. Such model developments are, of course, more expensive, and Tim Palmer made a strong case for improved computer power for decadal prediction: a number one computer for a number one problem.

Concept and Unintended Consequences of Weather Index Insurance: The Case of Mexico

Recently, Weather Index Insurance (WII) has received considerable attention as a tool to insure farmers against weather related risks, particularly in developing countries. Donor organizations, local governments, insurance companies, development economists as well as agricultural economists are discussing the costs and benefits of WII. While the literature on WII has mainly focused on many cases in Africa and Asia, in this article we analyze the WII program in Mexico, which is one of the largest WII programs worldwide. In this context we discuss potentially important spill-over effects on related markets which so far have not been considered in the academic literature. First, we argue that WII creates disincentives to invest in other non-insured crops leading to potential overspecialization and monoculture. Secondly, WII generates disincentives to invest in irrigation systems because farmers are insured only as long as production takes place on non-irrigated land. Third, in case of catastrophic events food prices can potentially inflate with indemnity payments at the expense of the uninsured poor. We also suggest that in Mexico the thresholds of the weather index be (continuously) re-calibrated in order to adjust for the development of drought resistant seeds. Finally, the index could relatively easily be extended to account for precipitation variances. We argue that these factors and spillover effects should be accounted for in cost benefit analysis of WII.

Concept and Unintended Consequences of Weather Index Insurance: The Case of Mexico

Recently, Weather Index Insurance (WII) has received considerable attention as a tool to insure farmers against weather related risks, particularly in developing countries. Donor organizations, local governments, insurance companies, development economists as well as agricultural economists are discussing the costs and benefits of WII. While the literature on WII has mainly focused on many cases in Africa and Asia, in this article we analyze the WII program in Mexico, which is one of the largest WII programs worldwide. In this context we discuss potentially important spill-over effects on related markets which so far have not been considered in the academic literature. First, we argue that WII creates disincentives to invest in other non-insured crops leading to potential overspecialization and monoculture. Secondly, WII generates disincentives to invest in irrigation systems because farmers are insured only as long as production takes place on non-irrigated land. Third, in case of catastrophic events food prices can potentially inflate with indemnity payments at the expense of the uninsured poor. We also suggest that in Mexico the thresholds of the weather index be (continuously) re-calibrated in order to adjust for the development of drought resistant seeds. Finally, the index could relatively easily be extended to account for precipitation variances. We argue that these factors and spillover effects should be accounted for in cost benefit analysis of WII.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Comments on “Plotting Positions in Extreme Value Analysis”

AbstractThis comment addresses the role of sampling error in extreme value analysis. A note published in this journal claimed that Weibull’s 1939 estimator for sample probability has a unique status that invalidates all other estimators and renders invalid all of the developments of unbiased distribution-dependent estimators made since 1939. The note concluded that the use of distribution-dependent estimators should be abandoned and that many estimates of the weather-related risks should be reevaluated and the related building codes and other related regulations updated. This comment uses rigorous statistical proofs to make the diametrically opposite case: namely, that development of distribution-dependent estimators has resulted in an improvement in accuracy over the past half century and that no changes are required to the basis of weather-related building codes and regulations. These rigorous proofs are supplemented by sampling experiments that demonstrate their validity. This comment provides an introduction to the basic statistical concepts of the statistical modeling of extremes, including unbiased estimators for the model parameters.

Climate Change and the Potential Use of Weather Derivatives to Hedge Vineyard Harvest Rainfall Risk in the Niagara Region

The widespread recognition of current and impending climate change has led to the examination of possible impacts and potential adaptation strategies to deal with the prediction of increased variability of weather. Viticulture in particular faces a myriad of weather-related risks that could increase significantly with climate change. In addition to changes in agricultural practices, the use of financial solutions must also be sought in order to deal with the impending economic risks. Weather derivative contracts are a growing market that provide for the hedging of many of the financial risks due to weather. Although their use is widespread and increasing, their adoption by the agricultural sector, including viticulture, has been relatively slow. Using the Niagara region of Canada, we provide an example of how a weather contract can be designed to hedge the financial risk of a critical weather-risk factor common in viticulture, that of excessive rainfall during the harvest season. The variability of rainfall in the Northern Hemisphere has been predicted to increase with climate change and if weather-related risks intensify, weather contracts could prove to be useful tools for the viticulture industry.

Management Insights

Management Insights

Innovative Weather

The Innovative Weather program at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (UWM) is a weather service provider, staffed 24 hours per day and seven days per week by paid upper-level undergraduate and graduate students, a full-time academic staff member as director of operations, one other full-time-equivalent academic staff member, and one faculty member to oversee the program and manage research activities. Innovative Weather coordinates the needs of a select group of community clients exposed to weather-related risks with the research and operational expertise that exists at the university. Through the program, students broaden their academic studies into the realm of operational and applied research meteorology. Students provide key input to client decisions worth thousands of dollars and learn how to communicate credibly this high-value information. The program, initiated with fiscal backing from the UWM College of Letters and Sciences, has in two years developed a paying client list that includes major representatives in energy, metropolitan sewage treatment, education, transportation, and the media. By partnering with community clients, new research opportunities and resources become available that leverage traditional funding sources and ensure ongoing student involvement with demonstrated positive impact on student education and students' subsequent career choices. The direct use of the operational tools and products by clients provides important feedback that benefits the research. In addition to the many benefits of the program, the challenges to developing and maintaining such an entity within the fiscal and bureaucratic constraints of a public university are discussed.

Farmers’ Willingness to Purchase Weather Insurance in Rural China

China frequently suffers from weather related natural disasters and is a source of wide-spread systemic risk throughout large swaths of China. During these periods farmers crops are at risk and for a largely poor population few can afford the turmoil to livelihoods that goes along with drought. Throughout the developing world there is serious interest in index-based weather insurance for agriculture, and in China the China Insurance Regulatory Commission is investigating the insurability of weather related risk. Beyond that little formal research has appeared on either the demand, use or design of index insurance in China. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of farmers’ willingness to pay for drought insurance. Based on a survey of over 890 farm households in Shaanxi and Gansu provinces the results show that while there is significant demand, price may be an issue. Our results show that the majority of farm households would transition from a no-demand state to a demand state as prices fall. This suggests that in order to gain wide gain adoption there may be a need for governmental intervention.

Chapter 6: Insurance industry

Chapter 6: Insurance industry

Storms drive altitudinal migration in a tropical bird

Although migration is a widespread and taxonomically diverse behaviour, the ecological factors shaping migratory behaviour are poorly understood. Like other montane taxa, many birds migrate along elevational gradients in the tropics. Forty years ago, Alexander Skutch postulated that severe storms could drive birds to migrate downhill. Here, we articulate a novel mechanism that could link storms to mortality risks via reductions in foraging time and provide, to our knowledge, the first tests of this hypothesis in the White-ruffed Manakin (Corapipo altera), a small partially migratory frugivore breeding on the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica. As predicted, variation in rainfall was associated with plasma corticosterone levels, fat stores, plasma metabolites and haematocrit. By collecting data at high and low elevation sites simultaneously, we also found that high-elevation residents were more adversely affected by storms than low elevation migrants. These results, together with striking temporal capture patterns of altitudinal migrants relative to storms, provide, to our knowledge, the first evidence that weather-related risks incurred by species requiring high food intake rates can explain altitudinal migrations of tropical animals. These findings resolve conflicting evidence for and against food limitation being important in the evolution of this behaviour, and highlight how endogenous and exogenous processes influence life-history trade-offs made by individuals in the wild. Because seasonal storms are a defining characteristic of most tropical ecosystems and rainfall patterns will probably change in ensuing decades, these results have important implications for understanding the ecology, evolution and conservation of tropical animals.

The Effectiveness of Using a Basis Hedging Strategy to Mitigate the Financial Consequences of Weather-Related Risks

This paper examines the effectiveness of using a hedging strategy involving a basis derivative instrument to reduce the negative financial consequences of weather-related risks. We examine the effectiveness of using this basis derivative strategy for both summer and winter seasons, using both linear and nonlinear hedging instruments and the impacts of default risk and perception errors on weather hedging efficiency. We also compare the hedging effectiveness obtained using weather indices produced by both the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (RMS). The results indicate that basis hedging is significantly more effective for the winter season than for the summer season, whether using the CME or RMS weather indices, and whether using linear or nonlinear derivative instruments. It is also found that the RMS regional weather indices are more effective than the CME weather indices, and the effectiveness of using either linear or nonlinear hedging instruments for weather risk management can vary significantly depending on the region of the country. In addition, the results indicate that default risk has some impact on nonlinear basis hedging efficiency but no impact on linear basis hedging efficiency, and reasonable perception errors on default risk have no impact on either linear or nonlinear basis hedging efficiency.

Field Evaluation of Virginia-Type Peanut Cultivars for Resistance to Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus, Late Leaf Spot, and Stem Rot

Abstract Susceptibility to viral and fungal diseases is a major factor limiting profit in the production of virginia-type peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) in the South Carolina coastal plain. Field tests were conducted over a three-year period (2006–08) to evaluate the disease resistance of 47 experimental virginia-type breeding lines and eight cultivars. Relative to commercially available standards, cultivar Bailey (recently released by N. C. State Univ.), three sister lines (N03088T, N03089T, and N03090T), and N03091T were found to have consistently less susceptibility to tomato spotted wilt tospovirus; late leaf spot, Cercosporidium personatum (Berk. and Curt.) Deighton; and stem rot, Sclerotium rolfsii Sacc. The level of field resistance measured for these three diseases was comparable to that of a resistant runner-type cultivar, Georgia-03L. Yield was highly correlated with multiple disease resistance, and yield performance of some resistant lines exceeded the best commercial standard cultivars under reduced fungicide programs. Potential negative attributes of Bailey, its sister lines, and N03091T were a greater susceptibility to leafhopper injury, Empoasca fabae (Harris), and a relatively larger plant size at maturity, without well defined rows to facilitate digging. Other lines that demonstrated reduced susceptibility to both tomato spotted wilt and stem rot were N03005J and N02009. Although only evaluated in the last test year, five Univ. of Florida lines (FLMR7, FLMR9, FLMR12, FLMR14, and FLMR15) and Georgia-08V (recently released by the Univ. of Georgia) also showed some reduction in stem rot susceptibility relative to the standard (cultivar NC-V 11). Equally important, many experimental lines were identified with significantly greater disease susceptibility than current commercial cultivars. Under South Carolina production conditions, these lines would be poor candidates for advancement. Deployment of the multiple disease resistance found in these experimental cultivars offers several potential benefits beyond direct yield improvement: reduction of fungicide input costs for both foliar and soil disease control, prolonging the utility of currently available fungicides, and reduction of weather related harvest risk by allowing earlier initial planting dates.

The Use of Weather Derivatives by Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Reasons and Obstacles

Weather events have a strong influence on the operating figures of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The emergence of weather derivatives offers opportunities to manage these weather-related risks. General pricing and valuation issues of weather derivatives have already been widely discussed in the literature, but, so far, no research has been undertaken to examine the reasons and obstacles regarding the usage of weather derivatives within a SME context. The present paper fills this research gap. It introduces the fundamental characteristics of weather derivatives and reviews the theoretical hedging rationales of SMEs. Above all, this paper presents and discusses obstacles that may impede the application of weather derivatives by SMEs. According to results of a survey conducted among 215 Austrian SMEs, the primary obstacles are the lack of expertise and awareness regarding weather risk management.

Measuring Expertise in Weather-Related Aeronautical Risk Perception: The Validity of the Cochran–Weiss–Shanteau (CWS) Index

Two studies were conducted to measure expertise in aeronautical weather-related risk perception using the Cochran–Weiss–Shanteau (CWS) index. In the first study, qualified pilots, student pilots, and geography students were presented with weather-related scenarios, and rated the risk involved in each scenario. There was no relationship between flight experience and the CWS scores. The 3 groups of participants did not significantly differ in their CWS scores, although the qualified pilots were the most discriminating, and the geography students were the most consistent. To decrease reliance on memory, the CWS procedure was modified to involve a blocking task and a second study was carried out with qualified pilots. In contrast to Study 1, there was a relationship between flight experience and the CWS scores, suggesting that the adapted CWS procedure was a more valid measure of expertise in weather-related risk perception than the CWS task used in Study 1. The CWS procedure could be a useful tool in assessing expertise in aeronautical judgment and decision making.