Weather Advisories Research Articles

Knowledge Evaluation on Weather Forecast and Agro-advisory Services to Farmers in Srikakulam District of Andhra Pradesh, India

Weather is the major factor for crop growth and yield. Farmers were more interested on the current real time weather parameters such as rainfall, humidity in air , air temperature, direction and speed of the wind, Knowing of weather forecast is useful to reduce the yield loss and to obtain more yield with high remunerative price. The precise real time data at exact time allows the farmers to plan field management practices like choosing of correct crops, land preparation, field operations like spraying of pesticides and herbicides, irrigation, fertilizer application, harvest, drying and post harvest operations to reduce the crop damage and economic losses. The District Agromet unit (DAMU) located at KVK, Amadalavalasa is sending timely weather advisories to farmers of Srikakulam district based on the forecast issued by IMD. A total number of 1080AgroAdvisory Service (AAS) bulletins were prepared by using DSS software and disseminated to the registered farmers through whatsapp and other social media during 2022-2023. A random sample survey was conducted to study the impact of agro-advisory services to farmers based on weather forecast issued by DAMU, Srikakualm. The sample size was 60 farmers belong to different villages of Amadalavalasa and Srikakulam blocks of Srikakulam district. The study Results revealed that spotlight on illiterate farmers is much more significant and dispersal of advisories in audio or visual format is more comfortable and easy to understand. The results of the survey exposed that among the total farmers the farmers follow for sowing are 45 percent, for spraying operations are 11 percent, for harvest and drying are 62 per cent. Finally this study confirms that the farmers were more concentrate on sowing, harvest and drying related to weather forecast. Hence finally realized that farmers should follow forecast data of weather from choice of crop and its management practices to after harvest operations to get enhanced productivity and also superior net returns.

Climate-smart agriculture strategies for South Asia to address the challenges of climate change: Identification of climate-resilient agriculture practices for India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan

In South Asia, agriculture is pivotal for food and nutritional security and the livelihood of more than 50% of the population. Food production and nutritional security pressures intensify as urbanisation decreases the agricultural land area amid population growth. Climate change complicates this scenario by introducing elevated temperatures, extreme climatic events, surging sea levels, and increased soil salinity. Identifying climate-resilient innovative technologies for farmer adoption becomes imperative to counter these adversities. An integrated approach to climate-smart agriculture, encompassing capacity building through practical training on innovative mitigation strategies, is needed. This study unites experts from Australia, India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan in an Asia-Pacific Network project, fostering mutual learning and farmer training in climate-smart practices. Insights from workshops conducted at Amity University in February 2020 and June 2022, combined with country-specific technological advances in the past 15 years gleaned from the literature, revealed key technologies to combat climate change (e.g., zero tillage, raised bed planting, direct-seeded rice, crop residue management, crop diversification, site-specific nutrient management, laser levelling, micro-irrigation, seed/fodder banks, and ICT-based weather advisories). Widespread implementation of these technologies and practices will empower farmers to navigate climate change challenges, fostering resilience and sustainability.

Effectiveness of Adaptation Mechanisms of Farmers in Flood Prone Area of Bihar

The state of Bihar is most vulnerable to floods in India and farmers in flood-prone areas have undergone adaptation through a combination of technological and institutional innovations. The present study aimed to explore the effectiveness of adaptation mechanisms as perceived by the farmers to mitigate the negative effects of flooding on their livelihoods covering a random sample of 80 farmers in flood-prone areas of Bhagalpur district in Bihar during 2022. The findings suggest that farmers have developed a range of adaptation strategies to cope with the impacts of flooding, the most effective being the changes in cropping patterns, adoption of flood-resistant paddy varieties, pest and disease resistance vegetable varieties, vaccination of livestock and management of fish ponds. Institutional innovations like self-help group, farmers interest group, farmers club, seed bank, village level weather advisories were also found crucial to enabling farmers to adapt to floods. Income, cultivated land, information availability, and use of communication sources have explained about 50 per cent variation in the perceived effectiveness of adaptation by farmers. Future extension efforts need to strengthen the institutional infrastructure to promote the flood resilient technologies to reduce the vulnerability of farm livelihoods.

The value of weather and climate information to the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using non-monetary approaches

AbstractThis paper investigates the value of weather and climate information at different timescales for decision making in the Tanzanian disaster risk reduction sector using non-monetary approaches. Interviews and surveys were conducted with institutions responsible for disaster management at national, regional and district level. A range of values were identified including: 1) making informed decisions for disaster preparedness, response, recovery and restoration related activities; 2) tailoring of directives and actions based on sectoral impacts; 3) identification of hotspot areas for diseases outbreaks and surplus food production. However, while, a number of guidelines, policies, acts and regulations for disaster risk reduction exist it is not clear how well they promote the use of weather and climate information across climate sensitive sectors. Nonetheless, we find that well-structured disaster risk reduction coordination across sectors and institutions from the national to district level exists, although there is a need for further development of integrated Early Warning Systems, and a common platform to evaluate effectiveness and usefulness of weather warnings and advisories. Key challenges to address in increasing the uptake of weather warnings and advisories include language barriers, limited dissemination to rural areas, and limited awareness of forecasts. Based on the findings of this study, we recommend further quantitative evaluation of the skill of the severe weather warnings issued by the Tanzania Meteorological Authority, and an assessment of how decisions and actions are made by recipients of the warnings in the disaster risk reduction sector at different stages in the warning, response and recovery process.

Estimate of economic impact of atmospheric radiation storm associated with solar energetic particle events on aircraft operations

A solar energetic particle (SEP) event generates a shower of secondary generated particles in the Earth’s atmosphere down to lower altitudes to cause an atmospheric radiation storm (ARS). The high-energy secondary particles cause additional radiation dose at altitudes where aircraft flies. The space weather information provided by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated space weather centers includes advisories on the solar radiation storm. The Warning System for AVIation Exposure to Solar energetic particle (WASAVIES), we can estimate the effective dose rate (EDR) along the flight path of the aircraft. However, it has not been well established how the operators of aircraft should react with the space weather advisories on the solar radiation storm. By using a flight trajectory generation algorithm and the global EDR distribution, the economic impacts of ARS associated with SEP events on aircraft operation, namely the flight path length, flight time, and fuel consumption, are estimated. The conditions of the peak of the ARS event on 20 January 2005 are used. The economic impacts for a flight route from New York, US to Tokyo, Japan, are estimated with constraints in flight routes to avoid the hazard of radiation and compared with those of the reference case without the ARS effects. The fuel consumption is shown to increase by 39–69 tons (33–58%) for a twin-engine, wide-body jet passenger aircraft, when a constraint is imposed on the flight altitude only. When the constraints are set on the aircraft altitude and the latitude, the flight time and the fuel consumption are both increased by 2.2–2.8 h (17–20%) and 32–48 tons (27–41%), respectively. If the ARS event duration is limited for 3 h, the increase in the fuel consumption is about 7.6–14 tons (6.4–12%). This economic impact may be reduced, if the space weather nowcast and forecast for the ARS and an optimal flight trajectory generation algorithm are used together. Setting more flexible constraints on the flight route and generating optimal flight trajectories with minimal economic impacts by fully utilizing the global EDR distribution is the next step.

Statistical Modelling of Intensity Modes of Rainfall Using Principal Component Itemization: A Case Study of Kano State

Kano State is experiencing greater weather extremes, changes in rainfall patterns, analysis of heat and cold waves, and increasing droughts and floods (Kano meteorological agency). As a result, there is a need for the provision of the necessary weather advisories and early warnings to planners, decision-makers, and operators of the various rainfall-sensitive socio-economic sectors. However, this study is aiming to realize some hidden variables of Kano State total monthly rainfall dataset from the onset to cessation period of rain from the month of April to October over a 105 years (1911-2015) for classification into the intensity of the rain of the area under study, also to determine the linear model for the changing patterns of rainfall in Kano State and to identify some of the adverse impacts on socio-economic sectors and transport infrastructures. Thus, the appearances of the rainfall figure are established for the study region with the operation of Principal Component Analysis (PCA), application least square method. The leading three (3) PCs, gives account for about 61% of the entire disparity, is described. The revision displays and describe PC1 as associated with the heavy intensity rainfall, whereas PC2 is connected to the moderate-intensity rainfall and finally PC3 is linked to the light intensity rainfall of the region under study. By the scores of our PCs, uniform rainfall zones are established over the region of enquiring to which the yearly performance of rainfall is discussed. Statistically, all three models for the various mode of rainfall intensity are significant, which serves as the annual pattern of rainfall in the study area.

Value‐added weather advisories for small‐scale farmers in South Africa delivered via mobile apps*

AbstractMaize, the staple crop of Southern Africa, is dependent on the highly variable summer rainfall, especially the start of the rainy season. Every growing season, farmers decide about when to plant their crops. Agrometeorologists use climate and weather information to assist such decisions and engage farmers and other stakeholders to fill gaps in the relevant information. Modern electronic communication technologies can distribute real‐time information pertinent to the farmers' current situation. The Rain for Africa consortium developed a mobile phone app, AgriCloud, giving updated information on a daily basis to extensionists and small‐scale farmers. AgriCloud advisories are for a specific location in a selected local language on an android phone. AgriCloud has enabled farmers to use rainfall in a more sustainable way as they plan land preparation and planting according to weather forecasts for their own farm. Advantages are that users eagerly obtain daily updates with farming‐relevant advice, in their own local language on their own phone in their hands. AgriCloud includes the unique aspect of crowdsourcing to collect qualitative weather observations from users. AgriCloud mobile app is used to access integrated information from current short‐term forecasts regarding maize planting recommendations by farmers for their specific farm location.

Winter Storms and Fall-Related Injuries: Is It Safer to Walk than to Drive?

AbstractEmergency department visitation data were analyzed using a matched-pair, retrospective cohort method to estimate the effects of winter storms on fall-related injury risks for a midsized urban community in Ontario, Canada. Using a unique definition and classification of winter storm events and dry-weather control periods, relative risks of injury were estimated for total falls and two subcategories (same-level falls involving ice and snow; all other falls) across two storm event types (snowfall only; mixed precipitation). Winter storms were associated with 38% and 102% increases in the mean incidence of same-level falls involving ice and snow during snow events and freezing-rain events, respectively. The incidence of other types of falls was slightly but significantly less during snow events relative to dry-weather control periods. Findings suggest that walking is not safer than driving during winter storms, as same-level falls involving ice and snow accounted for 64% more of the injury burden than motor vehicle collisions. Significant reductions in mean relative risk estimates for fall-related injuries were apparent over the 2009–17 study period indicating possible long-term shifts in exposure, sensitivity, and/or risk-mitigating decisions, actions, and behavior. Consistent and significant effects of government-issued weather warning communications on risk outcomes were not found. Practitioners engaged in developing injury prevention strategies and related public risk messaging, in particular winter weather warnings and advisories, should place additional emphasis on falls and multimodal injury risks in communications related to winter storm hazards.

Risk of Fall-Related Injury due to Adverse Weather Events, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 2006-2011

Following a surge in fall-related visits to local hospital emergency departments (EDs) after a severe ice storm, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health examined the association between inclement winter weather events and fall-related ED visits during a 5-year period. Using a standardized set of keywords, we identified fall-related injuries in ED chief complaint logs submitted as part of Philadelphia Department of Public Health's syndromic surveillance from December 2006 through March 2011. We compared days when falls exceeded the winter fall threshold (ie, "high-fall days") with control days within the same winter season. We then conducted matched case-control analysis to identify weather and patient characteristics related to increased fall-related ED visits. Fifteen high-fall days occurred during winter months in the 5-year period. In multivariable analysis, 18- to 64-year-olds were twice as likely to receive ED care for fall-related injuries on high-fall days than on control days. The crude odds of ED visits occurring from 7:00 am to 10:59 am were 70% higher on high-fall days vs control days. Snow was a predictor of a high-fall day: the adjusted odds of snow before a high-fall day as compared with snow before a control day was 13.4. The association between the number of fall-related ED visits and weather-related fall injuries, age, and timing suggests that many events occurred en route to work in the morning. Promoting work closures or delaying openings after severe winter weather would allow time for better snow or ice removal, and including "fall risk" in winter weather advisories might effectively warn morning commuters. Both strategies could help reduce the number of weather-related fall injuries.

Application of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in Analysing Rainfall Distribution Patterns in Batu Pahat District

Rainfall forecasting reports are crucial to provide information and warnings to the population in a particular location. The Malaysian Meteorology Department (MMD) is a department that plays an important role in monitoring the situation and issued the statement of changes in weather and provides services such as weather advisories and gives warnings when the situation requires. Uncertain weather situations normally have created panic situation, especially in big cities because of flash floods due to poor drainage management. Usually, local authorities provided rainfall data in tables, and it is difficult to analyse to acquire the rainfall trend. Therefore, Geographic Information System (GIS) applications are commonly used to generate rainfall patterns in visual formation with a combination of characteristics of rainfall data and then can be used by stakeholders to facilitate the process of analysis and forecasting rainfall. The objective of this study is to determine the pattern of rainfall distribution using GIS applications in Batu Pahat district to assist interested parties to understand and easy to analyse the rainfall data in visual form or mapping form. Rainfall data for a period of 10 years (2004-2013) and monthly data (Dec 2006 - Feb 2007) are provided by the Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) for 12 stations in the district of Batu Pahat, and rainfall maps in each year was obtained using the interpolation Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method was used in this research. The rainfall map was then analyzed to identify the highest rainfall that was received during the period of study. For the conclusion, this study has proved that rainfall analysis using GIS application is efficient to be used in gaining information of rainfall patterns as the results show that the highest rainfall occurred in 2006 and 2007, and it were the years of major floods occurrence in Batu Pahat district.

Development of Science-Based Decision Support System for Evaluating the Safety of Evacuation Facilities in Case of Torrential Rains

Torrential rains have been increasing in frequency. There have been instances in which residents were caught up on their way to evacuation shelters. It is important to check on hazards caused by conditions, on the adequacy of evacuation facilities, and on water levels and weather advisories. When taking appropriate action in torrential rains, it is necessary to assess weather and water information based on the preliminary survey of evacuation. To improve the quality of decision making, a science-based procedure should utilized by public agencies to judge the situation. We propose a procedure manual and web-based system for take appropriate action as disaster response.

Experimental Evaluation of the AIRWOLF Weather Advisory Tool for En Route Air Traffic Controllers

The objective of this study was to examine the potential benefits for air traffic controllers from the use of automated weather advisories. In a part-task simulation, we used a weather support tool called Automatic Identification of Risky Weather Objects in Line of Flight (AIRWOLF) that (a) detects conflicts between aircraft and hazardous weather, (b) alerts the controller, and (c) generates automatic weather advisories. During the simulation, air traffic control (ATC) subject matter experts responded to AIRWOLF alerts and either provided weather advisories to pilots via radio in two main conditions or provided data link communication in a third control condition. Automated advisories (a) eliminate the need for a manual production of weather advisories; (b) reduce the production time, voice duration, and overall advisory duration; and (c) reduce the cognitive workload associated with the dissemination of weather advisories. The results showed that the AIRWOLF tool could support air traffic controller weather avoidance actions and provide accurate and timely weather advisories to pilots. The weather advisory tool could support en route controllers for the safe, efficient, and strategic efforts required to handle adverse weather conditions in the en route environment.

Accuracy of Commercially-Available Speech Recognition Systems in Identifying PIREP Terminology

Pilot Reports (PIREPs) are an important source of information that aids, other pilots, air traffic control, and operational aviation meteorologists in terms of forecasting and updating weather advisories such as SIGMETs. Pilots rely upon PIREPs so they can avoid hazardous weather and fly their aircraft in the safest manner possible. However, many PIREPs are not successfully submitted or transmitted to the many end users which impedes their ability to be used to keep the NAS safe. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) made several recommendations for increasing the effectiveness and distribution of PIREPs, including receiving PIREPs from pilots directly and automatically (NTSB, 2017). We recruited eighty-four native-speaking participants to read a short, average, and long PIREP scripts in order to test the performance of various speech recognition systems (SRSs). The spoken PIREPs were transcribed by SRSs and compared to the original PIREP scripts. The words that were deleted, substituted, and inserted were identified and used to calculate the word error rate (WER) and word information loss (WIL). The WERs and WILs were separately analyzed with a repeated-measures marginal model to compare the accuracy between each of the SRSs. Also, the interaction between each SRS and gender was analyzed. The results demonstrated that Google, LilySpeech, and Transcribe had the same and superior performance when transcribing the average-length PIREPs than Braina and Dragon. All SRSs had equal performance at transcribing the short-length PIREPs. Dragon, Google, LilySpeech, and Transcribe had the same performance and superior when transcribing the long-length PIREPs than Braina. Additionally, we found that the short, average, and long-length transcriptions for all 5 commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) SRSs provided readable information for flight service stations (FSS) to enter valuable weather information into the PIREP system.

Operational profiling of temperature using ground-based microwave radiometry at Payerne: prospects and challenges

Abstract. The motivation of this study is to verify theoretical expectations placed on ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR) techniques and to confirm whether they are suitable for supporting key missions of national weather services, such as timely and accurate weather advisories and warnings. We evaluate reliability and accuracy of atmospheric temperature profiles retrieved continuously by the microwave profiler system HATPRO (Humidity And Temperature PROfiler) operated at the aerological station of Payerne (MeteoSwiss) in the time period August 2006–December 2009. Assessment is performed by comparing temperatures from the radiometer against temperature measurements from a radiosonde accounting for a total of 2107 quality-controlled all-season cases. In the evaluated time period, the MWR delivered reliable temperature profiles in 86% of all-weather conditions on a temporal resolution of 12–13 min. Random differences between MWR and radiosonde are down to 0.5 K in the lower boundary layer and increase to 1.7 K at 4 km height. The differences observed between MWR and radiosonde in the lower boundary layer are similar to the differences observed between the radiosonde and another in-situ sensor located on a close-by 30 m tower. Temperature retrievals from above 4 km contain less than 5% of the total information content of the measurements, which makes clear that this technique is mainly suited for continuous observations in the boundary layer. Systematic temperature differences are also observed throughout the retrieved profile and can account for up to ±0.5 K. These errors are due to offsets in the measurements of the microwave radiances that have been corrected for in data post-processing and lead to nearly bias-free overall temperature retrievals. Different reasons for the radiance offsets are discussed, but cannot be unambiguously determined retrospectively. Monitoring and, if necessary, corrections for radiance offsets as well as a real-time rigorous automated data quality control are mandatory for microwave profiler systems that are designated for operational temperature profiling. In the analysis of a subset of different atmospheric situations, it is shown that lifted inversions and data quality during precipitation present the largest challenges for operational MWR temperature profiling.

Tropical Storm Gamma and the Mosquitia of eastern Honduras: a little‐known story from the 2005 hurricane season

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was unprecedented in terms of storm activity in the United States, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean. Given the impacts of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the Honduran Mosquitia sparked little attention despite being hit by two hurricanes and a tropical storm in 2005. This article recounts the history of these storms in the Afro‐Caribbean community of Batalla, drawing from public weather advisories and testimony of local residents obtained through participatory research. We contextualise this local history with results from the first paleotempestological study undertaken in the Mosquitia to shed light on long‐term risk of catastrophic storms in the region and to demonstrate the value of integrating these two research approaches. Our findings contribute to recent ethnographic research on hazards by describing how a coastal people understand and respond to tropical cyclones and how landscape change influences the vulnerability of a coastal area. Although residents have not witnessed a storm as intense as those documented in the paleotempestological record, their knowledge and perceptions show how tropical cyclones can be disasters while leaving behind no sedimentary records. The paleotempestological evidence, however, reminds us that catastrophic hurricanes have struck the Mosquitia in the past and will do so again in the future. Understanding the interactions between contemporary human perceptions and responses and long‐term hurricane risk provides insight for emergency managers and local stakeholders to better prepare for such a catastrophic event.

The Operational Impact of QuikSCAT Winds in Perth, Australia: Examples and Limitations

Abstract The preparation of accurate operational weather forecasts and the timely issuance of severe marine weather and ocean warnings and advisories for major oceanic weather systems impacting both coastal areas and the open ocean are major forecasting problems facing the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s Regional Forecast Centre (RFC) and its collocated Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) in Perth, Western Australia. The region of responsibility for the Perth RFC is vast, covering a large portion of the southeast Indian and Southern Oceans, both of which are extremely data sparse, especially for near-surface marine wind data. Given that these coastline and open-ocean areas are subject to some of the world’s most intense tropical cyclones, rapidly intensifying midlatitude cyclones, and powerful cold fronts, there is now a heavy reliance upon NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) data for both routine and severe weather warning forecasts. The focus of this note is on the role of QuikSCAT data in the Perth RFC for the accurate and early detection of maritime severe weather systems, both tropical and extratropical. First, the role of QuikSCAT data is described, and then three cases are presented in which the QuikSCAT data were pivotal in providing forecast guidance. The cases are a severe tropical cyclone in its development phase off the northwest coast of Australia, a strong southeast Indian Ocean cold front, and an explosively developing midlatitude Southern Ocean cyclone. In each case, the Perth RFC would have been unable to provide early and high-quality operational forecast and warning guidance without the timely availability of the QuikSCAT surface wind data.

Disease Management in Overhead Sprinkler and Subsurface Drip Irrigation Systems for Peanut

Experiments were conducted during 2001 and 2002 at one location in North Carolina to compare development of early leaf spot (Cercospora arachidicola Hori), pod yield, and market grade characteristics when peanut (Arachis hypogea L.) was grown under overhead sprinkler irrigation (OSI) and subsurface drip irrigation (SDI) and fungicides were not applied or applied biweekly or based on weather advisories. Incidence of early leaf spot was lower when peanut was grown under SDI compared with OSI when fungicides were not applied. Fewer fungicide applications were needed when applications were based on weather advisories rather than when applied biweekly. There was no difference in early leaf spot control or leaf defoliation resulting from disease when fungicides were applied regardless of irrigation system or fungicide application approach. Pod yield was higher in 2001 under SDI compared with OSI when fungicides were not applied; yield was similar in 2002. Disease severity was much higher in 2001 than in 2002 and most likely explains differences in pod yield between years. No difference in yield was noted when fungicides were applied, regardless of irrigation system. The percentage of extra large kernels (%ELK) was lower in 1 of 2 yr under SDI compared with OSI. There were no differences in percentages of fancy pods (%FP), sound splits (%SS), and other kernels (%OK) among irrigation systems and fungicide programs. In a separate experiment where fungicides were applied biweekly, pod yield, %FP, and %ELK were similar under SDI and OSI but greater than nonirrigated peanut. The %OK was lower when peanut was irrigated.

The effect of two mechanical beach grooming strategies on Escherichia coli density in beach sand at a southwestern Lake Michigan beach

The influence of indicator bacteria associated with beach sands on recreational water quality has become increasingly recognized. Constant wave action may serve as a transport mechanism for delivering bacterial organisms to surface waters resulting in an increased frequency of dry weather advisories. The ability to reduce the concentration of these organisms may serve to improve recreational water quality. To date, few researchers have explored anthropogenic factors affecting the content of Escherichia coli in beach sands. This study explored the influence of mechanical beach grooming on in situ populations of Escherichia coli at a southwestern Lake Michigan beach to determine if an alteration in current beach management practices would serve to reduce the number of dry weather advisories in this community. Preliminary studies conducted during 2001 demonstrated that professional grooming significantly increased Escherichia coli content in beach sands relative to non-groomed or hand raked plots (p < 0.001). This data also suggested that deeper grooming might reduce differences between groomed and non-groomed areas. Subsequently, two mechanical grooming techniques were compared at Racine, WI in 2002: groomed to a depth of 5 to 7 cm with leveling of beach sands and groomed to a depth of 7 to 10 cm without leveling. Escherichia coli content between treatments were significantly correlated (p < 0.009). The density of the bacterium in deeper groomed/unleveled sands was significantly lower in visibly moist or wet but not dry sands (p = 0.038). In 2003, the manner in which beach sands were maintained using the mechanical beach groomer was altered and a follow-up study conducted. A 30 percent reduction in the number of poor water quality advisories due to dry weather events was achieved as a result of these measures. These results demonstrate that mechanical beach grooming may affect Escherichia coli content in beach sands, a potential source of non-point pollution to recreational waters.

Psychological climate changes for women in academic psychology: Forecasts, sources, and implications.

Abstract Reflecting on the past, and observing the present, what kinds of psychological changes might be in the forecast for women in psychology, for women affected by our discipline, and for the discipline itself? Using metaphors borrowed from meteorology and climatology, a psychological almanac is constructed for feminist psychology in Canada, warming trends are examined on both the academic and applied fronts, and weather advisories are issued. Psychological Almanac A narrative account of the herstorical climate for women in Canadian psychology could well begin with the clicheed introduction was a dark and stormy night... . Androcentric models of career paths, of productivity, of research, of psychological development, of psychopathology, of psychological interventions, of knowledge, of governance, of psychological health, of sexuality, of mentoring, of therapeutic outcome, of cognition, and of meaning predominated (Bem & Bem, 1971; Broverman, Broverman, Clarkson, Rosenkrantz, & Vogel, 1970; Chester, 1971, 1972; CPA Task Force, 1977; Gilligan, 1982; Gove, 1980). Women had so much difficulty getting research on women's issues accepted for presentation at the 1972 Canadian Psychological Association (cPA) Convention that the herstoric Underground Symposium had to be mounted in Montreal (Pyke, 2001; Pyke & Stark-Adamec, 1981). It was the best of times - for some; it was the worst of times - for others (Stark, 1997a, b). But in the wake of the storm, in what was referred to as the dawning of the age of Aquarius, there were rainbows, there was promise, and there was progress for women in CPA (Pyke & Stark-Adamec, 1981).' Everything sparkled with energy and, good will and CPA served as a model of integrity for other professional associations (Christiansen-Ruffman, Murphy, Stark-Adamec, & Davidson, 1986; Stark, 2000; see Table 1 for a partial listing of key achievements) .... Or so it seemed - to those of us who were looking through rose-coloured glasses rather than, as in one of Ingmar Bergman's films, through a glass darkly. Was that warming trend for women, and for feminist psychology, merely a Chinook? Reflecting on our past and observing the present, what kind of weather changes might be in store - both for future generations of feminist psychologists and for Psychology itself? Current Psychological Conditions Although not all feminists are alike (just as not all men are misogynists and not all women are feminists), there may be some common underlying themes among the various feminist philosophies - themes such as commitment to the empowerment of women, commitment to social action (e.g., a commitment to the elimination of oppression/injustice, a commitment to equitable distribution of resources, a commitment to ecological responsibility/environmental protection), respect for diversity, rejection of androcentric othering of women, rejection of the derogation/denigration of skills at which women excel, perhaps even a celebration of so-called female traits and of skills at which women excel, recognition of the complexity and embeddedness of psychological processes in general and of women's lives in particular. To be sure, other humanistic philosophies share some of these same commitments and rejections; but it may be only within what I will refer to as Female Feminism that they combine in a manner that has the potential for transforming Canadian (and other) psychology so beneficially. Female feminists can be seen to have altered - dramatically - many aspects of both the climate and the terrain. Feminist research paradigms, and feminist approaches to ethics and to psychological interventions, can be transformative and empowering; they can give voice to the silenced! In discussing the sources of these transformations, I am making the same data-based assumptions as Snyder, McDermott, Leibowitz, and Cheavens (2000, pp. 642646), viz., that: * women, as compared to men, have greater access to their emotions; * women are less confrontational than men; * women are more communal and aware of others' needs; * women value and work harder atr preserving relationships than do men; * women are especially sensitive to struggle and social inequity; * women seem more approachable and easier to interact with (nonthreatening); * women are more likely to engage in both contextual and holistic thought. …

Implementation of high-quality text-to-speech synthesis for limited domain applications

Though current TTS systems can produce unrestricted, intelligible speech using a limited database of prerecorded sounds, the quality of speech is highly artificial. By using larger speech segments, such as a combination of words and diphones, the number of segment boundaries are reduced drastically, resulting in high-quality TTS that has a humanlike natural voice. Such a system can be useful for limited domain applications such as driving directions, weather advisories, etc. Experiments were conducted to generate natural sounding speech from words and diphones by modifying the pitch and duration of the units to match the prosody characteristics. The Festival TTS system, developed at the CSTR at the University of Edinburgh, was used to aid in the implementation of the experiments. The method for synthesis is pitch-synchronous residual LP. This method allows for producing smooth transitions between segments. A database of residuals and parameters for segments (words and diphones) is prepared. During synthesis, the segments are concatenated and the desired prosody is matched using time-domain modifications of pitch and duration. Using natural prosody, waveforms were synthesized, resulting in close to natural sounding speech. This demonstrates synthesized speech can sound identical to the original speaker, given the correct prosody.