Abstract In this work, we study and compare the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and spring soil moisture in Southern Europe on the duration and intensity of European summer heat waves. We study heat waves with return times of a few years and also propose a new methodological approach, return time maps, that allows us to study rare heat waves with return times of 10 or 50 years. We use the outputs from three climate models, namely IPSL-CM6A-LR, EC-Earth3, and CNRM-CM6-1, in which North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are restored towards the observed AMV anomalies. The three models give consistent results, with the exception of EC-Earth simulating a much greater influence of soil moisture. Our main conclusion is that spring soil moisture in Southern Europe is a slow driver of greater importance than the AMV for European summer heat waves, both in terms of the extension of the region of influence and in terms of amplitude. While the influence of the AMV concentrates over the very south of Europe, around the Mediterranean Basin, spring soil moisture influence extends over large parts of Europe. As might be expected, a positive AMV phase or low soil moisture generally induces hotter and longer heat waves. For more extreme events, the influences of the AMV and soil moisture increase, according to regional patterns that seem to be the same as for typical heat waves. However, confirming this statement would require datasets with more extreme events.
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