Wave Of Democratization Research Articles

Waves of autocratization and democratization: a rejoinder

ABSTRACT This is a response to Luca Tomini's “Don't think of a wave!” and Svend-Erik Skaaning's “Waves of autocratization and democratization”. With this rejoinder we make three arguments: First, the question how global waves shape autocratization processes and regime transformations is now more urgent than ever. Since 1994, civil liberties and political rights of one third of the global population have been substantially and increasingly reduced due to autocratization. Second, waves of any concept can only be studied meaningfully if the underlying concepts as well as the waves are clearly defined. We argue that the conceptualization of episodes of regime transformations (ERT) in the ERT dataset provides exactly such a clear state-of-the-art empirical mapping of processes of democratization and autocratization at the national level. In addition, we highlight how our conceptualization of waves builds upon Huntington, 1993. It even improves upon it by allowing for overlap and modelling it closer to its real world counterpart. Third, we view the present debate as a prime example of fruitful scholastic argument. Ultimately, this is what will generate a better understanding of global trends of democratization and autocratization.

The idea of constitutionalism in democratic and authoritarian states

Polish constitutional law utilizes the notion of “constitutionalism” but does not explain the basic components which would help to classify a given system to such a category. The 20th century utilized this concept for the purposes of confrontation between West and East, but with the democratic wave of the 1990s and the decay of the transition process, it began to lose its widely acknowledged criteria of recognition. The article brings new taxonomy proposed in comparative constitutional law which suggests that there is no longer one fixed notion of constitutionalism. Such an approach seems to be the equivalent of realpolitik in constitutional studies accompanied by the suggestion that Western taxonomy can no longer ignore the protracted existence of constitution- based states which treat it as an object but reject other components e.g. separation of powers, an effective impartial and independent judicial system and legal constraints. Such realism in taxonomy may come at a price, with even further decay of rule of law standards and erosion of liberal democracy.

Globalization, state capacity and the third wave of democratization: an empirical study

ABSTRACT Instead of looking at the relationship between globalization and democratization from a social and institutional perspective, this article focuses on the moderating role of state capacities, which are divided into two sub-categories: state coercive capacity and state administrative capacity. Using panel data from 129 countries for 1974–2018, we arrive at two conclusions. First, globalization is positively correlated with democratization, but this relationship weakens with stronger state administrative capacity. Second, while state coercive capacity has an inverse relationship with democratization, state administrative capacity is positively associated with democratization, and this positive effect wanes with greater degrees of globalization.

THE THIRD WAVE: DEMOCRATIZATION IN THE LATE TWENTIETH CENTURY, BY SAMUEL P HUNTINGTON. OKLAHOMA: UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA PRESS, 1991, 384 PAGES. ISBN: 9788475099606

The discourse on democratization features prominently in the work of Samuel P. Huntington (1927-2008) entitled ‘The Third Wave’ which was published in 1991. Huntington was one of the most influential political scientists and previously held the position of university professor at the prestigious Harvard Kennedy School in the US. He authored many academic books on comparative politics and was the founder of the Foreign Policy Journal as well as the former president of the American Political Science Association (IPSA). Written in six interesting chapters, Huntington’s Third Wave provides a clear-cut discussion on fundamental questions of when, why and how democratization occurs in different parts of the world. This fascinating book has contributed significantly to the empirical analyses on comparative transition to democracy and autocracy in around thirty global southern states, primarily in Latin America and Asia, and remains relevant for discourses on any future wave of global democratization.
 
 Cite as: Syazli Saidin, M. I. (2021). The third wave: Democratization in the late twentieth century. (Book review). Journal of Nusantara Studies, 6(1), 394-400. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol6iss1pp394-400

Democracy’s third wave and national defense spending

I investigate how the third wave of democracy influenced national defense spending by reference to a panel of 110 countries over the 1972–2013 period. I apply new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute on military expenditures, which has been extended to years prior to 1988, and four democracy measures to address differences among indices of democracy. The results from a dynamic panel data model suggest that democracy’s third wave reduced defense spending relative to GDP by about 10% within countries that experienced democratization. I exploit the regional diffusion of democracy in the context of the third wave of democratization as an instrumental variable (IV) for democracy in order to overcome endogeneity problems. The IV estimates indicate that democracy reduced national defense spending relative to GDP by about 20% within countries that experienced democratization, demonstrating that OLS underestimates the effect of democracy on national defense spending. The cumulative long-run effect of democratization resulting from the dynamics in defense spending is almost three times larger for both OLS and IV estimates.

The political impact of environmental mobilization: a theoretical discussion in the light of the Argentine case

ABSTRACT Upon the third wave of democratization, environmental mobilization has increased throughout Latin America. In line with this process, the literature has analyzed different aspects of environmental mobilization, such as the types of groups involved and the resources mobilized. Yet, less attention has been paid to the impacts of those mobilizations. So, we ask: what are the impacts of environmental mobilization and how can they be best understood? Based on a review of the literature and on our own studies on Argentina, we build a novel typology to explain the connection between the political impacts of environmental mobilization and their concrete effects on the environment. We argue that the best way to understand those impacts is to analyze the state decisions that respond to such a mobilization, focusing on two key dimensions: the spatial and the temporal scope. We illustrate our typology with the analysis of four different environmental areas in Argentina.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ АВТОРИТАРНОЇ ДЕМОКРАТИЗАЦІЇ В УМОВАХ ГЛОБАЛІЗАЦІЇ

Authoritarian regimes become more prone to democratization when faced with little choice or risk. In some cases, the risk of democratization for authoritarian factors is so low that ending authoritarianism may not mean leaving power at all. This article develops a single theory of authoritarian democratization in a relatively low risk environment. The power of the authoritarian factor is the most important factor of democratization under the leadership of authoritarianism. When the strength of the current party was significant enough to give incumbent authoritarian politicians considerable confidence in winning the election, ndemocratic regimes conducted reverse democratic experiments that eventually culminated in a stable, prosperous democracy. Evidence of the first wave of democratization in Europe, the democratic transitions in Asia and Africa, illustrates how the party force reinforced democratization led by authoritarianism. As a result, the factors of the collapse of democracy include: the weakening of political institutions, violations of individual rights and freedom of thought, which call into question the efficiency and stability of democratic systems. It is established that the problematic aspects are the level of inequality, differences in identity; democratization through bottom-up peaceful protests has led to a higher level of democracy and democratic stability than democratization caused by elites; constitutions resulting from pluralism (reflecting different segments of society) are more likely to promote liberal democracy.

Domestic Constraints in the Genesis of Western Style of Democracy in China

The last decade of the twentieth century is full of some form of democratic transition all around the world. Samuel P. Huntington described this phenomenon as the “Third Wave of Democratization” in his book The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. There is this Modernisation Theory which explains the phenomenon of transition of the state into a democratic form of government by analyzing the economic and social progress of the states. China undoubtedly has progressed a lot economically in the last three decades and with the increasing affluence, society is also changing simultaneously. As modernization theory explains that economic progress is followed by political reforms. But still, China has managed to carry its economic growth trajectory up and improved the lives of hundreds of millions of people without making many concessions in the political field. It is still governed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which is more or less authoritarian. China is among one of the few states which are still undemocratic in nature in western scholar perspectives. There is a lot of speculation about China’s future and its political system. But democracy does not have just one form in which every political system has to be fit. Chinese government and Academicians claim that China has its form of democracy. The Chinese government claims that they are regularly carrying political reform but these political reforms are far away from the western style of democracy. Some domestic constraints constrained the growth of the western style of democracy in China.

Emergent Programmatic Politics and Gradual Demise of Neopatrimonial Tendencies* in Ghana’s Electoral Democracy

Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa experienced regime change after the thawing of the cold war. Ghana like other countries in the sub-region, arranged for multiparty elections to displace years of authoritarian rule. After three decades of the second independence, the Africanist literature on electoral politics has generated a debate on the continuity of neopatrimonialism, weak parties and voting intentions largely based on ethnic and clientelistic tendencies. But there have been relevant works that have challenged these narratives. Relying on secondary literature, online news items, centre for democratic development (CDD) pre-election survey and some field notes, this article positions it itself within the ongoing debate by challenging the simplistic narratives how Ghana’s democracy has spurred neopatrimonialism, where parties are weak and present no credible policy positions and thus the linkage mechanism between voters and parties are predominantly ethnic and clientelistic. It argues that for about three decades after the third wave of democratization, there is an emergent programmatic politics in Ghana.

(Successful) Democracies Breed Their Own Support

Using large-scale survey data covering more than 110 countries and exploiting within-country variation across cohorts and surveys, we show that individuals with longer exposure to democracy display stronger support for democratic institutions. We bolster these baseline findings using an instrumental-variables strategy exploiting regional democratization waves and focusing on immigrants’ exposure to democracy before migration. In all cases, the timing and nature of the effects are consistent with a causal interpretation. We also establish that democracies breed their own support only when they are successful: all of the effects we estimate work through exposure to democracies that are successful in providing economic growth, peace and political stability, and public goods.

(Successful) Democracies Breed Their Own Support

Using large-scale survey data covering more than 110 countries and exploiting within-country variation across cohorts and surveys, we show that individuals with longer exposure to democracy display stronger support for democratic institutions. We bolster these baseline findings using an instrumental-variables strategy exploiting regional democratization waves and focusing on immigrants' exposure to democracy before migration. In all cases, the timing and nature of the effects are consistent with a causal interpretation. We also establish that democracies breed their own support only when they are successful: all of the effects we estimate work through exposure to democracies that are successful in providing economic growth, peace and political stability, and public goods.

THE A Politics of Recognition: The Legislation of Zakat Law in a Transition of New Order and Reform Era

This article discusses Islamic civilians' struggles in gaining recognition of ‘positivization’ of Zakat Law No. 38/1999 and analyzes dynamics of relations between religion and the state in Indonesia. A period of democratic transition from Suharto to B.J. Habibie (Reform era 1998) marked an entry point for a new phase of state juridical recognition to Islamic law. In this paper, the dynamics of political recognition of zakat law are elucidated from a historical-critical analysis. The findings are twofold. Firstly, the zakat law was enacted during B.J. Habibie’s administration, where waves of democratization began. Secondly, the Islamic civilians played an important role in institutionalizing zakat and providing political support for the Ministry of Religion's efforts in proposing Zakat Management Bill (RUUPZ) to the House of Representatives. The state acknowledged multicultural society by adopting their living religious law whose application does not threaten the nation's unity.

The political party system in Slovakia in the era of Mečiarism. The experiences of the young democracies of central European countries

This article aims to reconstruct the functioning of political parties that was present during the establishment of the foundations of the democratic system and political practice, from the “Velvet Revolution” to the creation of a competitive party system with a dominant political party – Movement for Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) set up by Vladimir Mečiar; who served as prime minister in the years 1993–1998 (including a hiatus in 1994) greatly affecting the state internal and international policy, and held the post of the sole chairman of the party until its dissolution. V. Mečiar’s rule was marked by the interweaving of the elements of the wave of democratization with the reverse wave of de-democratization. The pro-democratic and undemocratic tendencies displayed by Mečiar were determined – apart from objective factors – by the personality traits of the prime minister: his commanding and charismatic leadership style, authoritarianism, making public decisions in a ruthless manner devoid of impartiality, or violations of democratic norms and values. Apart from its scientific purpose, this article may also fulfil a practical function allowing the possibility of using the research findings in social practice/politics.

Characterizing and Assessing Temporal Heterogeneity: Introducing a Change Point Framework, with Applications on the Study of Democratization

AbstractVarious theories in political science point to temporal heterogeneity in relationships of interest. Yet, empirical research typically ignores such heterogeneity or employs fairly crude measures to evaluate it. Advances in models for change point detection offer opportunities to study temporal heterogeneity more carefully. We customize a recent such method for political science purposes, for instance so that it accommodates panel data, and provide an accompanying R-package. We evaluate the methodology, and how it behaves when different assumptions about the number and abrupt nature of change points are violated, by using simulated data. Importantly, the methodology allows us to evaluate changes to different quantities of interest (for various estimators). It also allows us to provide comprehensive estimates concerning uncertainty in the timing and size of changes. We illustrate the utility of this flexible change point methodology on two types of regression models (Probit and OLS) in two empirical applications. We first re-investigate the proposition by Albertus (2017) that labor-dependent agriculture had a more pronounced negative effect on democratic survival before the “third wave of democratization.” Next, we utilize data extending from the French revolution to the present, from V-Dem, to examine the time-variant nature of the income–democracy relationship.

Demokrasiye Geçiş ve Ordu: İspanya ve Türkiye Karşılaştırması

Democratic transitions may have unintended consequences. Modes of transition exert significant influence on post-transition outcomes. Here, I focus on two most similar cases; Spain and Turkey, included in the ‘Third Wave of Democratization’. After an evaluation of critical junctures by using Croissant, Kuhn, Chambers and Wolf (2010)’s framework, I argue that civil-military relations during transitions are key to explain post-transitional outcomes. The extent to which military power was influential in transitional decision making creates a long-lasting impact for the political regimes. Hereby, I recall the importance of a comparative analysis of historical cases to develop an understanding of emerging democracies in an era of democratic decline.

Democratization and Troop Contributions to United Nations Peacekeeping

What explains the post–Cold War surge in peacekeeping contributions from the developing world? I argue that, amid a wave of democratization and expanded peacekeeping activity, such countries use peacekeeping deployments to reduce the threat of the military to nascent democratic institutions. Peacekeeping participation serves to placate the military in the short term with resources and continued activity, while socializing and professionalizing it to pro-democracy behaviors in the long term. Assessing troop contributions from 1990 to 2011, I find evidence that new democracies make larger contributions than other states, where the effect diminishes as democracy becomes consolidated. Moreover, the effect is amplified in countries with a greater military legacy. I supplement this with a study of Argentina to further support the proposed mechanism. These findings help explain the shift in state peacekeeping contributions in recent years, the role of democracy in peacekeeping efforts, and the impact of international actors in supporting democratization.

Conditions of Democracy in German Austria and Hungary, 1918–1919

Conditions of Democracy in German Austria and Hungary, 1918–1919

Democratic Backsliding or Stabilization?

There is a great deal of disagreement about the nature and extent of the alleged democratic backsliding. In order to understand the connection between the conflicting assessments of the democratization process and democracy indices (Freedom House, Polity, V-Dem, and Economist Intelligence Unit), this article investigates the various methods of measuring democracy. The question arises whether the studies outlining a process of democratic backsliding are backed by adequate data. The comparison of indices shows that the pessimistic authors are in minority. Although the conceptualization, coding and aggregation rules in the indices are not always applied perfectly, they determine the level of democracy accurately. This article also reveals that there is only a consensus on a first reverse wave of democratization. The second and third reverse waves cannot be distinguished based on the latest democracy data, so it is also possible to call these trends ‘periods of stabilization.’

Identity Politics or Economics? Explaining Voter Support for Hungary’s Illiberal FIDESZ

This article tests cultural and economic explanations of why the longest surviving illiberal government in Central Europe, Hungary’s FIDESZ, has maintained popular support throughout two elections despite dismantling institutional checks and balances. Much of the literature on illiberalism in Central Europe attributes the appeal and successes of these governments to the brand of identity politics and rhetorical vilification of “others” practiced by their leaders. Yet the role of economic growth, a strong determinant of voter behaviour, has received little theoretical attention in accounting for illiberal party support. Using five rounds of European Social Survey data from 2010 to 2018, I show that economic satisfaction rather than a host of cultural factors, notably anti-migrant and anti-European Union attitudes, better predicts support for FIDESZ and satisfaction with government. I examine the implications of these results for understanding and conceptualising voter behaviour under backsliding. Voters may not understand what backsliding is and therefore are unable to penalise it or they may take information about backsliding into account and judge backsliding to be the price of prosperity. These findings and the discussion of voter behaviour raise important questions about the role of economic growth in sustaining illiberalism in Central Europe and other third wave democracies.

Theoretical Framework of Democratic Transition: Mechanisms of Democratization

Democratic transition from authoritarian rule has been an important focus of scholarly interest since 1970s. The democratic transition literature presented many concepts, theoretical arguments, methodological and analytical approaches to tackle with this phenomenon. This huge academic accumulation came in conjunction with what was called the third wave of democratization which started in the mid-seventies beginning from southern Europe, and extended during the decades of the eighties and nineties to include many countries around the globe. Democratic transition can be defined as a political process of establishing or enlarging the possibility of democratic participation and liberalization. This process reflects the redistribution of power between the state and the civil society. It is accompanied by the appearance of different centers of power and the introduction of the political debate. The article concentrates on the mechanisms which lead to the consensus between political actors which perform this democratic transformation. Democratic transition thus always requires a mechanism of negotiations, political talks, facilitating compromises between authoritarian politicians and democratic opposition and engendering a minimum level of trust between these parties. The strategy of political compromise has a major impact on the stability of society during the democratic transition period. This article addresses the concept of democratic transition alongside with general theories of democratization and the emergence of democratic transition studies. It focuses on some aspects in explaining the democratic transition theory. The negotiations, political talks and their impact on democratic transitions are also explored by the author. The article specifies the ways and methods through which the democratic transition is taking place in the global world.