Water Vulnerability Research Articles

Effect of slope on water run-off and soil vulnerability in an unglaciated sub-watershed: a case study of conservation practice siting

For maximization of soil and water quality benefits, the right agricultural conservation practices (CPs) should be practiced for the right place. The Agricultural Conservation Planning Framework (ACPF) is a tool that helps decision makers achieve precise conservation within a target watershed using rapid, low-cost Geographic Information System-based tools. ACPF takes the information on landscape characteristics and combines it with user input to identify locations susceptible to soil loss and water run-off and suggest potential CP locations. Suggested CPs may further be analyzed for urgency, installation cost, and effectiveness. In this study, ACPF was applied to analyze soil and water vulnerability within a small unglaciated sub-watershed in southwest Wisconsin and identify potential CP practices and recommended placement sites. To promote environmental sustainability in the agriculture sector, land managers are tasked with implementing CPs, but often lack adequate information on the most effective practice and placement strategy. Field-scale siting of CPs was achieved using high-resolution terrain derivatives and accurate simulation of the stream network. Slope disaggregation among soil loss vulnerability categories was also conducted. Greatest sources of vulnerability were associated with slope and erodibility factors, with average slope within cropped fields being 6% and erodibility being as high as 43%. Fields classified as critical for conservation had a mean slope of 7.4%. Suggested contour buffer strip (CBS) placement per field varied with slope, with steeper fields having denser placement. The results suggested that 3% of cropland could be removed from production if the recommended placement of CBS was implemented. A further 0.2% of the sub-watershed area would go to grassed waterways. The results support implementation of effective CPs based on local conditions and act as a tool to help reveal if existing practices in the sub-watershed are of a size and extent comparable to the predicted potential.

Changes of blue and green water in arid inland dissipation area based on coupled surface water and groundwater model

Study regionThe Mainstream in the Tarim River Basin, Southern Xinjiang, China Study focusClimate change and human activities have significantly altered the water cycle, and water security evaluation and management are urgent. In arid and semi-arid areas, the assessment of blue and green water is particularly important. In this study, the MIKE SHE model is used to simulate the spatial and temporal changes of blue and green water resources in the mainstream of the Tarim River Basin (TRB) from 1990 to 2050 under land use and climate change conditions. The scarcity and vulnerability of blue-green water are introduced to evaluate the water security of the basin. The impacts of different land uses on blue-green water resources were also calculated according to the model zoning. New hydrological insights for the regionThe results indicate that from 1990 to 2050, blue water resources show a spatial pattern of gradual decrease from upstream to downstream. Compared to blue water, green water is dispersed more evenly over space. Future climatic scenarios will impact water security, as will changes in blue and green water security in terms of time and space. By comparing the influence of ecological water transport on the change of blue and green water before and after 2000, it was found that environmental water transport plays a certain role in improving the blue water scarcity in downstream of the TRB. The study is significant in maintaining regional water security and ecosystem stability.

Groundwater Level Prediction Using Machine Learning and Geostatistical Interpolation Models

Given the vulnerability of surface water to the direct impacts of climate change, the accurate prediction of groundwater levels has become increasingly important, particularly for dry regions, offering significant resource management benefits. This study presents the first statewide groundwater level anomaly (GWLA) prediction for Arizona across its two distinct aquifer types—unconsolidated sand and gravel aquifers and rock aquifers. Machine learning (ML) models were combined with empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) geostatistical interpolation models to predict monthly GWLAs between January 2010 and December 2019. Model evaluations were based on the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) metrics. With average NSE/R2 values of 0.62/0.63 and 0.72/0.76 during the validation and test phases, respectively, our multi-model approach demonstrated satisfactory performance, and the predictive accuracy was much higher for the unconsolidated sand and gravel aquifers. By employing a remote sensing-based approach, our proposed model design can be replicated for similar climates globally, and hydrologically data-sparse and remote areas of the world are not left out.

Priority areas for the use of solar water disinfection (SODIS) in Brazil: a spatial approach

ABSTRACT This paper presents a methodology for the development of a potential and priority use map for the application of the solar water disinfection (SODIS) method in Brazil. The assessment of solar radiation was conducted, with a particular focus on the annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI). The water vulnerability index (WVI) and the economic-social-ecosystemic (ESE)-WVI were developed and employed as indicators to define the priority regions for the application of SODIS. The combination of the GHI and WVI maps yielded a SODIS usage potential index (SUPI). The combination of the SUPI map with information pertaining to the human, economic, and ecosystem dimensions of water vulnerability (ESE-WVI) yielded the SODIS usage priority index. The analysis revealed that the country exhibits favorable levels of solar radiation, making the implementation of SODIS a viable option, particularly in the Northeast region. Furthermore, the study identified regions with greater water vulnerability, such as the semi-arid region and some parts of the Amazon, as priorities for the application of SODIS. In conclusion, SODIS represents a viable water treatment technique for various regions in Brazil, particularly those with abundant solar radiation and concerns regarding water security.

The Economic Impact of Water Vulnerability on Corporate Sustainability: A Perspective of Corporate Capital Cost

Studies have argued that water risk affects corporate sustainability, but few of them have fully explored whether or not and how water resources have a direct impact on corporate finance and strategy. This study takes the listed companies in the Chinese A-share market from 2019 to 2023 as a sample to understand the threat of water vulnerability to corporate sustainability from the perspective of capital cost. This study argues that water vulnerability positively relates to corporate capital cost by increasing corporate financing constraints. Meanwhile, this study also examines the role of water regulation and water investment in the relationship between water vulnerability and corporate capital cost. Water regulation brings legitimate pressure to corporations and increases the transformation risks faced by them, so it has a positive moderating effect. Water investment can alleviate the vulnerability of local water resources and reduce the physical water risk faced by corporations, so it has a negative moderating effect. The study finds that the two measures mainly play a significant moderating effect on the cost of debt. In addition, the study finds that the positive relationship between water vulnerability and capital cost has industrial and firm-level heterogeneity, while the moderating effect of government water governance has only industrial heterogeneity.

Political Economy of Maternal Child Malnutrition: Experiences about Water, Food, and Nutrition Policies in Pakistan.

This study examined access to water, food, and nutrition programs among marginalized communities in Southern Punjab, Pakistan, and their effects on nutrition. Both qualitative and quantitative data were used in this study. We held two focus group discussions (one with 10 males and one with 10 females) and conducted in-depth interviews with 15 key stakeholders, including 20 mothers and 10 healthcare providers. A survey of 235 households was carried out to evaluate water and food insecurity, with the data analyzed using Wilcoxon's rank-sum test, t-test, and Pearson's chi-square test. The results revealed that 90% of households experienced moderate-to-severe water insecurity, and 73% faced moderate-to-severe food insecurity. Household water and food insecurity were positively correlated with each other (correlation coefficient = 0.205; p = 0.004). Greater household water (p = 0.028) and food insecurity (p < 0.001) were both associated with higher perceived stress. Furthermore, lower socioeconomic status was strongly related to higher levels of water (p < 0.001) and food insecurity (p < 0.001). Qualitative findings highlight the impact of colonial and post-colonial policies, which have resulted in water injustice, supply issues, and corruption in water administration. Women face significant challenges in fetching water, including stigma, harassment, and gender vulnerabilities, leading to conflicts and injuries. Water scarcity and poor quality adversely affect sanitation, hygiene, and breastfeeding practices among lactating mothers. Structural adjustment policies have exacerbated inflation and reduced purchasing power. Respondents reported a widespread lack of dietary diversity and food quality. Nutrition programs face obstacles such as the exclusion of people with low social and cultural capital, underfunding, weak monitoring, health sector corruption, and the influence of formula milk companies allied with the medical community and bureaucracy. This study concludes that addressing the macro-political and economic causes of undernutrition should be prioritized to improve nutrition security in Pakistan.

Aquifer vulnerability valorization via DRASTIC index-based assessment within litho-facies of a coastal environment

Determining the degree of an aquifer’s susceptibility to pollutants is an important tool for policy planning in subterranean water administration and conservation. In this work, subterranean water vulnerability was appraised with the use of DRASTIC methodology, which employs seven parameters: depth to groundwater (D); net groundwater recharge (R); aquifer media (A); soil media (S); topography (T); influence of vadose zone (I); and hydraulic conductivity (C). Different ratings were given to each parameter based on the hydro-geological and geo-electrical information obtained from the study area. Geo-electrostratigraphic data was acquired with vertical electrical soundings and electrical resistivity tomography surveys. The results demonstrated the existence of geoelectrical layers with variable resistivities ranging from high to low, with variable curve types. Longitudinal conductance measures indicated moderate subterranean water protective capacity. Analysis of DRASTIC vulnerability indices showed that the aquifer indicated moderate to high vulnerability to contamination. Vulnerability maps were generated to indicate locations of high vulnerability, the goal being to prevent indiscriminate haphazard and wildcat abstraction of groundwater in such locations. The quality category index (QCI) generated for the DRASTIC model indicated that underground water susceptivity is dependent on all 7 parameters employed in the model, with the most critical determinants being the depth to aquifer (D), net recharge (R), aquifer media (A), and impact of the vadose zone (I). The work recommends that anthropogenic activities that could contaminate groundwater resource be halted as the resource is indicated by DRASTIC models as being vulnerable.

Drivers of municipal water security and vulnerability in Pakistan: A case study of Mardan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Tehsil Mardan has experienced enormous shifts in land use and cover (LULC), growth in population, climate variance, and a drop in the groundwater table. This study sought to evaluate and quantify the vulnerability status of municipal water security in Tehsil Mardan, by incorporating LULC, population, and climate indicators using remote sensing and statistical techniques. LULC changes were quantified from Landsat imageries using Envi from 1990 to 2021. Field and questionnaire surveys were conducted to estimate groundwater depletion and municipal water demand. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to temperature and precipitation data. Analysis of correlation was performed to measure the relationship among all the variables. To get a deeper understanding of the vulnerability of municipal water security caused by physical, climatic, and social factors, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was utilized. LULC results showed a fivefold rise in built-up class from 37 km2 to 188 km2 and a substantial decline in bare land from 437 km2 to 252 km2 from 1990 to 2021. The average groundwater table depletion was one foot per year and showed a significant positive correlation with the number of tube wells, water supply and demand, and population growth. An increase of 0.008 °C per year in average temperature while a declining trend is observed in mean precipitation during the last 30 years. The results showed that municipal water security vulnerability changed from “invulnerable relatively” to “very vulnerable” stage during the last three decades. The study contributed valuable insights to facilitate policymakers, and urban planners for management of the current and future municipal water works, land use planning, and associated environmental opportunities and threats.

Water Footprint Flow and Vulnerability of China’s Provincial Energy Sector

Water and energy are mutually reinforcing elements in production and consumption activities, forming an inseparable relationship. This study, conducted at the provincial level, investigates the intricate connections between energy water footprint flow, water shortage, and water pollution. It aims to elucidate the vulnerability of provincial energy sectors to water use, fostering regional coordinated management for sustainable energy and water development. Utilizing a multi-regional input–output model, the research analyzes both the quantity and quality of water resources. The water footprint of China’s provincial energy sector is quantified and scrutinized. Furthermore, an evaluation index system is constructed based on the water footprint concept. The entropy weight TOPSIS method is then applied to assess the vulnerability of inter-provincial energy sector water footprints. The key findings are as follows: (1) The energy water footprint has shifted from water resource-deficient areas, such as the northwest, North China, and northeast, to economically developed regions with relatively abundant water resources, such as East China and South China. This reveals that the transfer of water footprints in economic activities does not entirely alleviate water shortages in China and may even exacerbate shortages in certain water-deficient areas. (2) The graywater footprint of the energy sector is significantly larger than the blue water footprint and water shortage footprint. (3) The production and supply departments of power and heat emerge as the largest contributors to the transfer of energy and water footprints from water shortage areas to water-rich areas, followed by coal mining and dressing departments. (4) Top 10 Vulnerable Provinces: Tibet, Zhejiang, Ningxia, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Henan, Hunan, Beijing, Chongqing, and Hebei are identified as the top 10 provinces vulnerable to water footprints in the energy sector. This vulnerability closely correlates with the energy sector’s dependence on water footprints and production leverage. Recommendations include optimizing the energy mix and establishing stable external water footprint supply channels for provinces with high water footprint dependence. Provinces with high production leverage are advised to accelerate innovation and application of water-saving technologies in key energy sectors, increase the utilization of clean energy, and enhance resource recycling. National government departments should focus on controlling and reducing water pollutants in the energy sector across regions, addressing water shortages by purifying water bodies and improving water quality.

Vulnerability of ground water to polution in the highlands by a combined approach of AHP method and remote sensing

The aim of this work is to develop a simple and convenient decision support tool for the highlands using a combined approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method and remote sensing. The vulnerability assessment method developed is called O3P (Highlands method). It is a parametric method, adapted in the highlands and implement in the town of Bafoussam. This method takes into account 4 factors, including land use (O), permeability (P1), slope (P2) and water depth in the piezometers (P3). The AHP multi-criteria analysis coupled with geographic information systems (GIS) and the analysis of nitrate pollution, allowed the development and validation of the O3P method. The results obtained show 3 classes of vulnerabilities which evolve from the low vulnerability class (20.22% of the study area) to the classes of medium vulnerability (50.16 %) and high vulnerability (29.62 %). Classes of high vulnerability to pollution are more present in the central-northern part of the study area, with some occurrences towards the south. The superposition of the highest nitrate concentrations with the areas of high vulnerability confirms the validity of the method. It emerges from it following the study of the sensitivity that the land occupation factor has the most important effect in this model and whose reduction would influence to 35.54% the method. The statistical study shows that this method is acceptable because the value of the standard deviations of the IVO3P lower than that its mean.

Conjunctive management of groundwater and surface water resources using a hybrid simulation–optimization method

ABSTRACT This study aimed to determine the optimal conjunctive utilization of groundwater and surface water resources in the Halil River basin, one of the most significant study regions in Kerman Province (Iran). Multi-verse optimizer (MVO) and the ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems) simulation model, known as the MVO–ANFIS simulation–optimization model, were used for this purpose. Moreover, the optimal exploitation policy for the studied basin was presented. The ANFIS model yielded a coefficient of determination greater than 0.99 in Baft, Rabor, and Jiroft. This model had a high capability to simulate groundwater levels in these three regions. Therefore, the ANFIS model was adopted as the simulation model to predict the aquifer water table in these regions. Regarding the conjunctive utilization of groundwater and surface water resources, the exploitation policy resulting from the MVO–ANFIS simulation–optimization model had a desirable performance by supplying 91.70, 87.75, and 97.58% of the total demands of Baft, Rabor, and Jiroft, respectively. Moreover, results of water system performance indicators, including reliability (82.96, 72.65, 95.07), resiliency (70, 53.47, 80), vulnerability (29.54, 25.64, 17.02), and sustainability (74.24%, 66.10%, 85.78%) in the mentioned regions, respectively, showed the appropriate performance of the proposed model for the simulation–optimization problem.

SOCIAL PRACTICES IN WATER USE DRIVE VULNERABILITY IN FOREST EDGE VILLAGE COMMUNITIES IN SUMEDANG REGENCY

This research focuses on social practices of water resource use in forest fringe communities. The existence of human water needs interacts with and forms patterns of relationships, with human water forming social institutions and social institutions, and the existence of social practices that abundant water encourages social change in communities facing scarcity. Old knowledge that is maintained and the assumption that water will never run out is seen in water use habits and ignoring water conservation practices. Potentially causing water vulnerability, especially in families working as farmers and families who do not have water reservoirs. The theory used looks at the social practices of Antony Giddens. The qualitative approach with the PRA method, with observation, interview, mapping, and FGD techniques, helps map practices in water use, and then the qualitative analysis is carried out. The results of this study show that there are water groups in hamlet areas that maintain old management practices, where group members who contribute early to finding springs have “patent” rights to obtain water while living in the area. However, this right has yet to adapt to changes in physical environmental conditions, such as reduced forest land cover and changes in the social environment where the village population continues to grow. While the rules made by the “patent” group give dominance to members materially, therefore individual practice still views that abundant water will not run out, so water use tends to be wasteful. Then, the practice of agents perpetuates or maintains a habit, which means that not much effort has been made by the community to carry out preventive practices to protect water resources, as seen from the Competence, namely knowledge and skills of water use are still simple and do not have the Competence to prevent vulnerability risks caused by the water crisis. So, it has the potential to face vulnerability, especially in families that do not have large-capacity shelters and farmer groups that rely on agricultural products. Agents as transformative actors, their practices passive, recursive, and discursive practices continue to be reproduced, maintaining old patterns.

Flujos del agua en la cuenca del río Vilcanota (Cusco, Perú): Un enfoque del valor desde la economía ecológica

En la última década, la subcuenca del río Vilcanota (Cusco, Perú) ha mostrado una alta vulnerabilidad hídrica debido al cambio climático y a las presiones antrópicas propias del modelo económico. En un contexto de crisis pandémica y ecológica, abordar la complejidad del valor del agua se hace pertinente a fin de superar el uso exclusivo de mecanismos para calcular el valor monetario o sostener una gobernanza ambiental basada en el análisis costo-beneficio. El objetivo principal del estudio fue analizar las tasas de consumo de agua en la subcuenca del río Vilcanota para integrar la gestión con una visión desde la economía ecológica. Para ello se analizaron los factores dinámicos, impactos y respuestas de la gobernanza hídrica, y se abordó el problema del valor mediante el análisis de los flujos hidrológicos con el enfoque de la economía ecológica. Se encontró un alto consumo del sector hogares (urbano: 265151,71 m3/h, rural: 163087,50 m3/h), principalmente debido a la expansión urbana, cambio de uso de suelo y otras problemáticas locales sobre una zona principalmente agrícola, donde se hace necesario un análisis del metabolismo social en la subcuenca del río Vilcanota y la inclusión de la gestión de la complejidad en la política pública ambiental.

Possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the record-breaking 2020 Lake Victoria levels and floods

Abstract. Heavy rainfall in eastern Africa between late 2019 and mid 2020 caused devastating floods and landslides throughout the region. These rains drove the levels of Lake Victoria to a record-breaking maximum in the second half of May 2020. The combination of high lake levels, consequent shoreline flooding, and flooding of tributary rivers caused hundreds of casualties and damage to housing, agriculture, and infrastructure in the riparian countries of Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. Media and government reports linked the heavy precipitation and floods to anthropogenic climate change, but a formal scientific attribution study has not been carried out so far. In this study, we characterize the spatial extent and impacts of the floods in the Lake Victoria basin and then investigate to what extent human-induced climate change influenced the probability and magnitude of the record-breaking lake levels and associated flooding by applying a multi-model extreme event attribution methodology. Using remote-sensing-based flood mapping tools, we find that more than 29 000 people living within a 50 km radius of the lake shorelines were affected by floods between April and July 2020. Precipitation in the basin was the highest recorded in at least 3 decades, causing lake levels to rise by 1.21 m between late 2019 and mid 2020. The flood, defined as a 6-month rise in lake levels as extreme as that observed in the lead-up to May 2020, is estimated to be a 63-year event in the current climate. Based on observations and climate model simulations, the best estimate is that the event has become more likely by a factor of 1.8 in the current climate compared to a pre-industrial climate and that in the absence of anthropogenic climate change an event with the same return period would have led lake levels to rise by 7 cm less than observed. Nonetheless, uncertainties in the attribution statement are relatively large due to large natural variability and include the possibility of no observed attributable change in the probability of the event (probability ratio, 95 % confidence interval 0.8–15.8) or in the magnitude of lake level rise during an event with the same return period (magnitude change, 95 % confidence interval 0–14 cm). In addition to anthropogenic climate change, other possible drivers of the floods and their impacts include human land and water management, the exposure and vulnerability of settlements and economic activities located in flood-prone areas, and modes of climate variability that modulate seasonal precipitation. The attribution statement could be strengthened by using a larger number of climate model simulations, as well as by quantitatively accounting for non-meteorological drivers of the flood and potential unforced modes of climate variability. By disentangling the role of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability in the high-impact 2020 floods in the Lake Victoria basin, this paper contributes to a better understanding of changing hydrometeorological extremes in eastern Africa and the African Great Lakes region.

Assessing the vulnerability of urban drinking water intakes to water scarcity under global change: A bottom-up approach

Drinking water intakes (DWIs) face significant pressure due to global changes, including urbanization and climate change. The common approach relies mainly on climate projections generated by global climate models to simulate large scale hydroclimatic conditions. However, it is crucial to discern the impact of global changes on water scarcity at the local level, including in regions where available data are limited. This paper proposes an approach that focuses on studying the vulnerability of surface DWIs to low water levels and water demand in current and future climates within a cold-climate region.Low flows at DWIs were simulated using historical water level data obtained from hydrometric stations situated along the studied river. After defining four scenarios for climate change and anthropogenic activities affecting raw water withdrawals at DWIs, the full potential range of level variations was simulated. This study employed a combined water scarcity index derived from two sub-indices based on water level and water demand. The resulting index ranges from 0 to 1, where a higher value indicates a greater vulnerability to water scarcity. The simulation results demonstrate the vulnerability of water scarcity in both current and future climates.The calculated index, selecting the current vulnerability to water scarcity for the five studied DWIs, ranged from 0.61 to 0.76. The results for the vulnerability of these DWIs under future climate conditions exhibited significant variability across the different scenarios representing possible maximum daily withdrawal. These scenarios were defined to encompass a spectrum of options related to the government's policy for drinking water conservation strategy implementation. While exploring the full range of potential risks, the study's results demonstrated that the DWIs were especially vulnerable to anthropogenic changes affecting water demand.The framework developed in this study can provide a decision-support basis for municipalities and water managers to adapt to global change and achieve greater water supply resilience.

Occurrence and Distribution of Fluoride in Groundwater and Drinking Water Vulnerability of a Tropical Dry Region of Andhra Pradesh, India

There has been a growing concern over the occurrence of fluoride (F−) in groundwater and the impact of F− exposure on human health issues over the past decades. So, this study conducted a regional–scale assessment of the occurrence and trend of groundwater F− distribution [2014–2018] integrated with locally field–based investigations on F− exposure to a few selected families (10 households and 35 respondents) and reason behind their consumption of F− containing water (n = 18). In the local study, water samples were collected from multiple sources around the selected households by dividing them into consumptive and non–consumptive use. Results revealed that across the state of Andhra Pradesh, the occurrence of F− is more than the permissible limit in groundwater, and it has been increasing over the years (2014–2018) (average SD is 0.55), and the local study showed that the groundwater had an average of 1.5 mg/L F−, while other sourced water had an average of &lt;1 mg/L F−. Most interestingly, nine families are consuming non–F− containing water (&lt;0.52 mg F−/day) which is commercially available, while only one family is consuming F− containing groundwater and being exposed to &gt;3 mg F−/day. This disparity in fluoride exposure is dependent on economic stability and health exposure policies.

Access to water service and vulnerability to COVID-19: the case of Mexico City

El acceso al servicio de agua en los hogares es fundamental para enfrentar la pandemia de COVID-19, sobre todo en contextos urbanos donde el riesgo aumenta por la cercanía social. En este artículo se exploran las relaciones entre el número de contagios de COVID-19 con la marginación de los hogares y los problemas de acceso al servicio de abasto de agua potable en la Ciudad de México, resaltando los patrones de distribución espacial. Se generó una base de datos a nivel de colonia con información oficial sobre el número de contagios, número de habitantes, índice de desarrollo social y acceso deficiente del abasto de agua. Se encontró que todas estas variables tienen un efecto significativo sobre el número de casos que se registran en las colonias. En particular, el deficiente acceso al servicio de agua aumentó en al menos 17 % el número de casos de contagio de COVID-19 durante el periodo de estudio.

Examining Varying Rainfall in the different elevation of Nepal and Water Scarcity

This study assesses the variation of rainfall in the different elevations in the water basin in Nepal. Employing time series data sets of rainfall from 1980 to 2020 collected from Department of Hydrology and Metrology, Nepal, this study has used Mann Kendal test and Sen’s test. In the different elevations, the variation of rainfall is heterogeneous. In the steep elevated landscapes, rainfall is extreme. In the last 47 years, trend of annual rainfall’s mean (Rmean) and moving average (Rmeanma) have been declining. During that period, there were extremes of higher and lower rainfall in the decadal time frame. Kendall’s coefficient (τ) and Sen’s coefficient (β) of Rmean are -3.65°c and -0.13°c respectively. It implies decreasing trend of Rmean from 1975 to 2020. Sen’s coefficient (β) of Rmean validate decreasing trend of Rmean. However, it is insignificant (P=0.2&gt;0.05). Differently, except Kendall’s coefficient (τ) and Sen’s coefficient (β) of Rmean in Tzone2 (1990-1999), Kendall’s coefficient (τ) and Sen’s coefficient (β) of the remaining three time zones, Tzone1 (1980-1989), Tzone3 (2000-2009) and Tzone4 (2010-2019) are negative. Therefore, rainfall has negative trend in the different elevations of the water basin. We conclude water scarcity &amp; stress exist in the small cities. To minimize water vulnerability, water saving and preserving behaviour of household should be developed and the government agency should campaign tree plantation, protect water sources and initiate water management program.

Identification of key brittleness factors and multi-scenario analysis of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus vulnerability based on NRS-BN

Water, energy and food are the basic resources on which human beings depend for survival. With the intensification of human activities, the demand for resources represented by water, energy and food continues to increase, resulting in increasing pressure on the ecological environment, and the vulnerability of water, energy, food and ecosystem becomes increasingly prominent. Identifying the critical vulnerability factors of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus and formulating targeted management measures have become the key to achieving sustainable development. This paper innovatively proposes to study the water-energy-food-ecology nexus from the perspective of vulnerability for the first time, in which the vulnerability evaluation index system of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus is firstly constructed based on the VSD framework, and the attribute reduction is carried out using neighborhood rough sets. Then, a Bayesian network model is built and parameter learning is performed by combining machine learning and expert experience. Finally, different scenarios are set up to identify the key factors that hinder the vulnerability reduction of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus and obtain the vulnerability probability of the nexus under different scenarios using forward and backward inference and sensitivity analysis of Bayesian networks, overcoming the drawback that many prediction models cannot achieve diagnostic inference. The results show that: 1) from 2008 to 2019, the overall vulnerability of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is low. 2) The key factors at the indicator level that hinder the vulnerability reduction of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus mainly include the storage capacity of water conservancy projects, wastewater discharge per 10,000-yuan GDP, and water consumption per 10,000-yuan GDP, and the subsystem level is water, food, energy and ecology system, in that order. 3) The reduction in vulnerability within an individual subsystem can have a beneficial impact on reducing vulnerability within the water-energy-food-ecology nexus. However, this reduction may also lead to an increase in vulnerability within other subsystems. Therefore, in the process of developing water, energy, food, and ecology system, high priority should be given to the coordinated development of all four.

Drinking water under fire: Water utilities' vulnerability to wildfires in the Pacific Northwest

AbstractIncreased wildfire activity in the western United States can lead to detrimental cascading effects to water quality. After fires, burned areas may experience significant runoff‐induced erosion and sediment transport into rivers and reservoirs, which could rapidly overwhelm existing drinking water treatment plants. This paper couples an assessment of wildfire risk with an evaluation of water utility preparedness to understand where key fire‐related drinking water vulnerabilities exist. Wildfire risk assessments were constructed and expanded from a commonly used methodology co‐developed between researchers and water managers (Edel et al., 2002), to understand drinking water impacts on water quality after wildfires. A water utility preparedness index was created for this study using publicly available information to contextualize how well utilities may be able to respond to water quality degradation after fires. Results indicate that 22% of utilities studied (10% of the population served) were underprepared for fire and 11% of watersheds used were at greater risk of wildfire (9% of the population served). However, nearly three‐quarters of utilities (76% of the population served) showed a moderate risk of fire and some need for improved fire preparedness. Information developed here could provide a useful framework from which utility managers can better assess their likely wildfire risk and preparation plans.