Water stress on crops can severely disrupt crop growth and reduce yields, requiring the accurate and prompt diagnosis of crop water stress, especially in semiarid regions. Infrared thermal imaging cameras are effective tools to monitor the spatial distribution of canopy temperature (Tc), which is the basis of the daily water stress index (DWSI) calculation. This research aimed to evaluate the variability of plant water stress under different soil cover conditions through geostatistical techniques, using detailed thermographic images of Neem canopies in the Brazilian northeastern semiarid region. Two experimental plots were established with Neem cropped under mulch and bare soil conditions. Thermal images of the leaves were taken with a portable thermographic camera and processed using Python language and the OpenCV database. The application of the geostatistical technique enabled stress indicator mapping at the leaf scale, with the spherical and exponential models providing the best fit for both soil cover conditions. The results showed that the highest levels of water stress were observed during the months with the highest air temperatures and no rainfall, especially at the apex of the leaf and close to the central veins, due to a negative water balance. Even under extreme drought conditions, mulching reduced Neem physiological water stress, leading to lower plant water stress, associated with a higher soil moisture content and a negative skewness of temperature distribution. Regarding the mapping of the stress index, the sequential Gaussian simulation method reduced the temperature uncertainty and the variation on the leaf surface. Our findings highlight that mapping the Water Stress Index offers a robust framework to precisely detect stress for agricultural management, as well as soil cover management in semiarid regions. These findings underscore the impact of meteorological and planting conditions on leaf temperature and baseline water stress, which can be valuable for regional water resource managers in diagnosing crop water status more accurately.