Water Resources In River Basin Research Articles

Hydrological Modeling of the Cambamba Watershed in Angola Using the HEC-HMS Model

When evaluating the impact of climate change on water resources in river basins it is crucial to accurately estimate the availability of water and such can be attained through hydrological modeling of the basin. The studies of the Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) for the Cambamba River Basin in Angola has been calibrated and validated for the prediction of its hydrologic response. Due to the complexity of Hydrologic models, a good calibration of the model should be established, therefore, improving its skills and effectiveness. A combination of both the energy budget and a physically-based rainfall-runoff model, which are used for the estimation of lake evaporation, were applied in the lake water balance model. Soil storage, as well as groundwater storage coefficient, are essential parameters for estimating the simulated streamflow. For an adequate performance evaluation of the model which entails the simulation of the streamflow on Cambamba watershed and quantification of water availability, The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency criterion; root mean square error; percentage error in volume PEV; and percentage error in peak PEP, were implemented. Model performance is improved by using semiannual parameter sets that consider the change in hydrological conditions, as evaluated in this study. Key words: HEC-HMS, watershed, rainfall-runoff, flood hazards

Scenario simulation and analysis in the transboundary Yarmouk River basin using a WEAP model

ABSTRACT Water is a finite resource but an essential one. The continuously increasing demand leads to competition and conflict over limited resources. Syria, Jordan, and Israel compete over the water resources in the transboundary Yarmouk River basin where two water agreements dictate the allocation of water. The two arrangements are far from being efficient and fair while little cooperation is being made over sharing the resources that are being over-exploited. In this study, water sustainability was investigated under projected developments and trends based on the current use and allocation regime in the watershed using several scenarios. A one bucket soil moisture model was adopted and optimized in order to fully represent the ever-changing hydrology of the basin using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool. Demands along with the existing water infrastructure and their operation were modelled despite the lack of many data and the huge uncertainty in some. Simulation of business as usual scenario showed that continuing with the current use cannot be sustainable in the short and long term. The growth of both agriculture and population produced huge water shortages in all demand sectors. Under climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, surface water availability and the retention of dams reduced significantly. The share of Jordan from the Yarmouk River was the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Enhancing irrigation efficiency and a more stable population growth based on the UN medium variant population projection showed improvements in water coverage within all demand sectors. Analysis of future scenarios suggests that water shortage is expected in all riparian states of the basin but can be mitigated by reducing demands.

Monitoring water level and volume changes of lakes and reservoirs in the Yellow River Basin using ICESat-2 laser altimetry and Google Earth Engine

Monitoring the water level and volume changes of lakes and reservoirs is essential for deepening our understanding of the temporal and spatial dynamics of water resources in the Yellow River Basin, with a view to better utilizing and managing water resources. In recent years, there have been many studies on monitoring water level and volume changes in inland waters, but they were mainly focused on radar altimetry and the full waveform LiDAR ICESat, which was retired in 2010. Few studies based on the latest photon-counting LiDAR ICESat-2 have been reported. Compared with previous sensors, ICESat-2 has great advantages in footprint size, transmitting frequency, pulse number, etc, but its performance in monitoring water level and volume changes in inland waters has not been fully explored. Here we investigated the spatial distribution of water level and volume changes of 11 lakes and 8 reservoirs in the Yellow River Basin based on ICESat-2 and Google Earth Engine, and analyzed the factors affecting the measurement uncertainties. In-situ validation of lake level in Lake Qinghai indicates that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of our result is only 7 cm after the reference coordinate system conversion. We found that the water level trend of the natural lake shows significant seasonal variations, while the water level trend of the reservoir shows a sharp rise and fall. In addition, precipitation plays a decisive role in the changes in natural lake levels and indirectly affects the artificial control of reservoirs’ water discharges. The uncertainty of water volume change monitoring is mainly affected by water level measurement uncertainty for lakes, while for reservoirs, that is affected by the combination of water level and area measurement uncertainties. The stability of lake level measurement increases with the increase in photon counts. The introduction of ICESat-2 ATL13 Significant Wave Height might lead larger standard deviation in water level measurement. According to the law of propagation of uncertainty, the uncertainty of the water volume change estimation by the combination of ICESat-2 and GEE is less than 9 %.

The Uses and evaluation of water resources in the Zalm river basin

This study deals with the subject of a geographical assessment of the use of water resources in the Zalam River Basin. The aim of this study is to highlight the reality of the current uses of water resources for various purposes in the study area. And to achieve a balance between the volume of incoming, surface and underground water in the study area, and to find the amount of consumption of water by the population in the various activities. It appeared through this study that the total water needed for domestic use of the population of the study area was (2.486) million / m3 annually, in the year (2016). The amount of water required for agricultural crops and orchards is estimated at (36.109) million/m3 annually, and this is where the most is consumed compared to other uses in the area, The amount of water used by the livestock in the area is (146) million/liter annually, and the total water consumption of chicken fields and poultry birds is (7.16) million/liter annually. The estimated amount of water used in the food industry is (0.014) million m3/year. The amount of surface and ground water is estimated at (171.698) million/m3 in the study area, and surface water represents (65.45%), while groundwater represents (34.55%), and the amount that is consumed is estimated at (38.762) million/m3 for all uses, and it is clear from the above that there is a surplus of water, said surplus is estimated to be at (132.936) million/m3.

Projecting the impact of human activities and climate change on water resources in the transboundary Sre Pok River Basin

Projecting the impact of human activities and climate change on water resources in the transboundary Sre Pok River Basin

Study on carbon dioxide emission from reservoirs with different regulation types and its empirical prediction model.

The construction of artificial reservoirs with various regulation types on river is currently an important form of comprehensive utilization of water energy and water resources in river basins. The type of regulation is important in controlling the residence time, which in turn affects the photosynthesis-respiration balance in the water. This process has a significant impact on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from reservoirs. In this study, seasonal observations were carried out from September 2020 to July 2021 at five artificial reservoirs in the Qiantang River Basin, eastern China, to reveal the characteristics of CO2 emission from the water-air interface of reservoirs with different regulating types. The results showed that the annual average CO2 emission flux of the studied reservoirs varied significantly, ranging from 4.2 to 155.3mmolm-2day-1 with an average of 48.4mmolm-2day-1, which also had a significant negative correlation with the hydraulic retention time. While downstream of the dam, the annual average CO2 emission flux was quite high with a range of 105.8 to 543.0mmolm-2day-1, averaging 381.6mmolm-2day-1. This is mainly due to the release of water with high-concentration CO2 from the bottom of the reservoir. Additionally, using related data of reservoirs around the world, a CO2 emission model with hydraulic retention time, air temperature, and reservoir age as the primary parameters was developed, which was conducive to evaluate reservoir CO2 emissions on a larger scale and provided theoretical support for effective reservoir management.

Research on the safe utilization of agricultural water resources in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract Considering the current problems related to the utilization of agricultural water resources in the Yellow River Basin, we propose the definition of the safe utilization of agricultural water resources based on the summary and analysis of recent studies on water resources security. Through the analysis of water resources development and utilization in the basin over the years, an evaluation index system for agricultural water resources security in the basin was constructed, and a weighted cooperative game method combination was used to evaluate the agricultural water resources security in the basin using the weighted TOPSIS model. The evaluation results show that the utilization of agricultural water resources in the areas under the jurisdiction of Sichuan and Shandong Provinces in the basin was in a secure or a relatively higher state, whereas Ningxia was in a relatively unsecure state, and the remaining provinces were in a basic secure state. Based on the evaluation results, we have provided the corresponding countermeasures for the safe utilization of agricultural water resources in terms of water-saving irrigation technology, water resources monitoring system, and water resources management system to support the effective implementation of efficient water-saving irrigation of agricultural water resources in the Yellow River Basin.

Study on water resources carrying capacity in Zhuanglang River Basin

With the rapid development of China’s social economy, the phenomenon of unbalanced regional economic development is increasingly obvious. The shortage of water resources in northwest China is an important constraint to local development. The study on the water resources carrying capacity of the Zhuanglang River Basin plays an important role in the development of local economy; thus, we evaluate the water resources situation of Zhuanglang River Basin by using hydrology-related calculation method, combining with field investigation, visiting relevant departments, and referring to relevant data. Meanwhile, the water resources carrying capacity of 3 counties and 12 townships in the Zhuanglang River Basin in the current year are studied and analyzed based on methods such as fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and quantitative calculation. Results indicate that the carrying capacity of water resources in Zhuanglang river basin can mostly meet the needs of township, but it is necessary to further optimize the water resources carrying capacity of the Zhuanglang River Basin from the four systems of water resources, society, economy, and ecology in the future. Besides, the results of quantitative calculation show that the maximum economic scale that water resources can withstand in most areas of the Zhuanglang River Basin is the overall well-off level, that is, the per capita domestic water is 80L/(d· person), and the per capita GDP is 10000 yuan/person. But there is still a certain gap to achieve the level, when the people are well-off in an all-round way, the two indexes are correspondently raised to 120L/(d· person), and the per capita GDP is 30,000 yuan/person.

Multi-objective optimal water resources allocation in the middle and upper reaches of the Huaihe River Basin (China) based on equilibrium theory

In the river basin water resources allocation (WRA) problem, an unbalanced WRA poses challenges to water resources management departments. Many studies focus on achieving a lower water shortage rate while ignoring the equilibrium relationship among the socio-economic system, water resources system and eco-environmental system, as well as the equilibrium relationship among different regions. In this study, a water resources allocation model(WRAM) based on equilibrium theory is constructed to achieve the balance between different systems and different spaces in a basin. First, the relationship among the water resources system, socio-economic system and eco-environmental system is described. Then, the regional equilibrium index and system equilibrium index are constructed. Finally, the first model based on equilibrium theory is constructed. The results show that: (1) the Pareto Front reflects the contradictory relationship between economic development and environmental sustainability; (2) with the restructuring of industry and cropping, both economic efficiency and water shortage rates improve; (3) the equilibrium of the basin could also be further improved if water resources utilisation is further improved. Therefore, this study improves the existing WRAM, which can be applied to guide the water resources management of river basin.

Optimal trade-off of integrated river basin water resources allocation considering water market: A bi-level multi-objective model with conditional value-at-risk constraints

The predictable water shortage crisis is intensifying due to frequent extreme weather caused by climate change and human activities. Motivated by urgent practical needs of more scientific and balanced river basin water resources allocation (RBWRA) schemes, a comprehensive bi-level multi-objective programming (BLMOP) model for RBWRA considering uncertain risks and water market is constructed in this paper, which pursues the objectives of environmental protection, equality, and economic development. River basin authority, as the leader of RBWRA, is committed to reducing pollutants while introducing Gini coefficient to maintain the equality of economic development between sub-areas. Meanwhile, the sub-areas (i.e., followers) are dedicated to improving the economic benefit. In addition, the water market is introduced as water redistribution mechanism and its effect is probed into in detail. Moreover, conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraints are integrated into the model to control the economic loss caused by the risks of uncertain water availability. To solve the BLMOP model, a novel bi-level interaction based adaptive global equilibrium optimization (BI-aGEO) approach is proposed, which can obtain the best equilibrium solution that satisfies all decision-making participants. Furthermore, the proposed model and approach are applied to the Hanjiang River Basin in central China to elaborate on their feasibility and effectiveness. Results show that the proposed model is effective in ensuring the sustainability, equality and efficiency of RBWRA. The introduction of water market is shown to be able to improve water efficiency and promote water conservation and CVaR constraints play a significant role in controlling economic risks. Finally, some managerial suggestions are provided for different RBWRA participants for more scientific and effective integrated water resources management (IWRM).

Response of runoff towards land use changes in the Yellow River Basin in Ningxia, China.

Since the Yellow River is a main source of water in Ningxia China, maintaining its healthy ecological environment is vital to Ningxia and the neighboring areas. Changes of land use caused by human activities such as population growth, urbanizing process, and industrial and mining construction would affect the balance and cycle of water in the Basin. Therefore, investigating hydrological responses of land use changes can provide insights into the characteristics and evolution of runoff the Yellow River Basin in the Ningxia section. This has imperative and practical significance to the rational use, allocation, and planning of water resources in a changing environment. In this paper, we analyzed the meteorological and hydrological elements of changing characteristics of the Yellow River Basin in the Ningxia section. Then we selected a distribution-based hydrology model of SWAT in combination with GIS to simulate annual and monthly runoff under different land use scenarios. Finally, we analyzed the influence caused by the changes of land use on runoff. We concluded that it is appropriate to lay a decision-making foundation to manage water resources of the Yellow River Basin in the Ningxia section.

Contrasting changes in hydrological processes of the Volta River basin under global warming

Abstract. A comprehensive evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources of the West Africa Volta River basin is conducted in this study, as the region is expected to be hardest hit by global warming. A large ensemble of 12 general circulation models (GCMs) from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that are dynamically downscaled by five regional climate models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Africa is used. In total, 43 RCM–GCM combinations are considered under three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The reliability of each of the climate datasets is first evaluated with satellite and reanalysis reference datasets. Subsequently, the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) multivariate bias correction method is applied to the climate datasets. The bias-corrected climate projections are then used as input to the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for hydrological projections over the 21st century (1991–2100). Results reveal contrasting dynamics in the seasonality of rainfall, depending on the selected greenhouse gas emission scenarios and the future projection periods. Although air temperature and potential evaporation increase under all RCPs, an increase in the magnitude of all hydrological variables (actual evaporation, total runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage) is only projected under RCP8.5. High- and low-flow analysis suggests an increased flood risk under RCP8.5, particularly in the Black Volta, while hydrological droughts would be recurrent under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5, particularly in the White Volta. The evolutions of streamflow indicate a future delay in the date of occurrence of low flows up to 11 d under RCP8.5, while high flows could occur 6 d earlier (RCP2.6) or 5 d later (RCP8.5), as compared to the historical period. Disparities are observed in the spatial patterns of hydroclimatic variables across climatic zones, with higher warming in the Sahelian zone. Therefore, climate change would have severe implications for future water availability with concerns for rain-fed agriculture, thereby weakening the water–energy–food security nexus and amplifying the vulnerability of the local population. The variability between climate models highlights uncertainties in the projections and indicates a need to better represent complex climate features in regional models. These findings could serve as a guideline for both the scientific community to improve climate change projections and for decision-makers to elaborate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the consequences of climate change and strengthen regional socioeconomic development.

Runoff controls the development of eco-hydrological and economic conditions in an arid oasis of the downstream inland river basin

Oasis degradation and terminal lake shrinkage are prevalent consequences of the disputed distribution of water resources in inland river basins, hindering regional sustainable development. The Ecological Water Diversion Project (EWDP) is regarded as an important measure to restore the desert-oasis ecosystem in inland river basins, and thus it is essential to comprehensively evaluate the response of eco-hydrological and socioeconomic systems to the EWDP. Based on multiple indicators, we used trend analysis, linear regression, partial least square regression, and structural equation model to disentangle the quantitative effects of the EWDP on the change of eco-hydrological and socioeconomic conditions in the Ejina Oasis (EO) in the lower reaches of the Heihe River in northwest China. Our results indicate that the ecological deterioration was prevalent before the execution of the EWDP, including the increase of groundwater depth, the disappearance of lakes, the decrease of NDVI. After the EWDP, runoff released to EO increased 69.15%, the mean groundwater depth decreased 0.48 m, 52.28% of the study area showed a significant increase in NDVI, areas of forest and grassland increased 20.17 and 25.65 km2, respectively. The EWDP improved the hydrological regime and prompted the recovery of the oasis. Besides, socioeconomic development was facilitated under the restoration of the eco-hydrological conditions, characterized by the expansion of farmland and the thrive of the tourism industry. The hydrological variables promoted the improvement of the ecological condition with a direct strength of 0.93 and facilitated the development of the socioeconomic conditions in EO with an indirect strength of 0.84. Runoff was the most important positive contributor both to the NDVI and GDP in EO. This comprehensive evaluation framework can offer valuable insight for water resources management and sustainable development in the inland river basin of arid areas.

Streamflow Consumption vs. Climate Change in the Evolution of Discharge in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China

Quantifying and separating the impacts of hydroclimatic change and human activities on streamflow consumption are crucial issues for the planning, management, and rational allocation of water resources in arid inland river basins. Generalized additive models were used to reveal the interactions between climate, land-use change, and streamflow consumption in the mainstream Tarim River basin in Northwest China. The results showed that streamflow has decreased, while streamflow consumption has had an increasing trend in the upper reaches and a decreasing trend in the middle and lower reaches during the past 45 years. Land-use change was estimated to contribute 50.1–84.30% (mean of 58.1%) of streamflow consumption, and it was followed by climatic change, which contributed 10.5–28.3% (mean of 21.5%), and inflow runoff, which contributed 11.8–23.6% (mean of 17.7%) from 1970–2015. Land-use change played a dominant role in streamflow consumption in the mainstream Tarim River basin. Cropland expansion and urban area growth were the primary factors causing the decreased streamflow and increased streamflow consumption in the upper reaches. The streamflow consumption in the middle and lower reaches decreased, which was attributed to the decreased inflow. The results are useful for informing policy-making accordingly so that the river can be properly restored, which will benefit the ecosystem services.

Enhancing Ethiopia’s Resilience to Drought and Hydrological Variability with Inter and Intera-Basin Water Transfer

It is hardly possible to think of sustainable development of society without access to safe and adequate water. Perhaps that is the reason that most of the civilizations have developed on the banks of rivers or other water bodies. However, water availability varies in space and time. At various places, its availability is either too much or too less. Further, in countries where poverty is a chronic problem, access to safe and adequate water and sanitation facilities is low. The severity of water shortage is pronounced in Sub-Saharan regions and mild in other parts of Africa. Ethiopia, a country of ancient culture is located in the north-eastern part of the horn of Africa. The water resources development and management conditions in Ethiopia are no better than any other Sub-Saharan African region, if not worse. Less than half of the population has access to safe and adequate drinking water. Only one-third (approximately) of the population has access to adequate sanitation services. Further, during the last century, Ethiopia has experienced recurring droughts. During such periods, water-related diseases become rampant. Most of the surface water sources dry up and the remaining water bodies get contaminated. Further, the major river basins in Ethiopia are transboundary in nature with wide variation in water availability. Keeping this in mind, the present study advocates the inter-linking of rivers for rational and equitable distribution of water resources in various river basins to the extent possible. A proposal has been prepared on the basis of water availability which can be further examined for its technical and economic viability.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on surface water resources in the upper Ganjiang River Basin, China

AbstractProjecting surface runoff is a meaningful task for rational allocation and optimal scheduling of water resources. Aimed at exploring the impact of climate change on surface water resources, the basin-scale water-balance model coupled with the Budyko-type equation was developed for the upper Ganjiang River Basin (UGRB). Studies demonstrated that the Budyko-CY function is the optimal water-balance model, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.843 in the calibration period and 0.653 in the validation period, respectively. The increase in temperature by 1 °C may bring about a 2.5–4.7% runoff decline, while the 10% increase in precipitation may lead to a 12.1–14.3% runoff ascent. The annual mean temperature is expected to grow by 0.69, 0.68 and 0.97 °C in the next 30 years relative to that during the reference period, respectively. Similarly, the surface runoff is estimated to increase by 8.4, 6.5 and 5.0% on a multi-year average scale, respectively. This study is beneficial to provide possibilities for climate scenarios that may occur in the future, and the results presented herein are capable of giving a reference for the planning and management of water resources in the UGRB.

1975-2020年疏勒河流域绿洲时空变化研究

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 1975-2020年疏勒河流域绿洲时空变化研究 DOI: 10.5846/stxb202105111232 作者: 作者单位: 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学青年基金项目（42007430，41801079，41701062）；第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目（2019QZKK0608） Spatiotemporal change of oasis in Shule River Basin during 1975-2020 Author: Affiliation: Fund Project: National Natural Science Foundation of China;the second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:掌握内陆河流域绿洲时空动态是内陆河流域实现水资源优化配置和动态管理的基本前提。基于Landsat系列数据，结合面向对象随机森林和目视解译方法，分析了1975-2020年疏勒河流域绿洲的时空格局、结构变化及其成因，并探讨了人工/天然绿洲比例变化对生态环境的影响。结果表明：（1）2020年疏勒河流域绿洲面积为5790.24km2，占流域面积比例的4.65%，其中人工绿洲、自然绿洲和过渡带分别占绿洲总面积比例为45.29%、51.07%和3.64%；（2）疏勒河流域绿洲分布模式主要为内陆河沙漠区模式和干流模式；（3）1975-2020年疏勒河流域绿洲面积整体上呈扩张趋势，且绿洲变化以人工绿洲扩张、天然绿洲和荒漠-绿洲过渡带减少为主要特征，土地类型的主要变化为草地和荒漠被开垦，绿洲变化可分为1975-2000年缓慢扩张和2000-2020年迅速扩张2个阶段，主要原因为流域径流量增加和外来移民输入；（4）随着人工与天然绿洲面积之比由3：7（1975年）增加到5：5（2020年），流域绿洲生态环境质量呈现先上升后下降趋势，2005年达到最高。研究可为疏勒河流域绿洲生态系统稳定发展提供数据支撑和科学依据。 Abstract:Grasping spatial-temporal dynamics of oasis in the inland river basin is the basic premise for realizing optimal allocation and dynamic management of water resources for the inland river basin. Shule River Basin, located in the west of Hexi Corridor, is a typical sensitive area in the fragile zone of ecosystem. In recent years, with the warming of the climate, the diameter flow out of the mountains has increased year by year, providing a good environmental background for the expansion of artificial oases and the restoration of natural oasis. Many scholars had carried out a lot of research work on ecological quality, service function and carrying capacity in this basin. However, there were relatively few studies on the spatio-temporal changes of oasis pattern and structure in long time series at watershed scale. Therefore, based on Landsat data of years 1975, 1990, 1995, 2000,2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 combining object-oriented random forest and visual interpretation method, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern, structure change and causes of oasis in Shule River Basin from 1975 to 2020. And it also discussed the impact of artificial oasis area to natural oasis area ratio on the quality of ecological environment. The results showed that:(1) The total area of oasis was 5790.24 km2 in the Shule River Basin in 2020, accounting for 4.65% of the total area of the basin, of which the artificial oases, natural oases and desert-oasis ecotone accounted for 45.29%, 51.07% and 3.64%, respectively; (2) The distribution patterns of oasis in Shule River Basin are mainly the inland river desert region model and the mainstream flow model. (3) The oasis area in Shule River Basin showed an overall trend of expansion from 1975 to 2020. The oasis changes were mainly characterized by the expansion of artificial oases and the decrease of natural oasis and desert-oasis transition zones. The main changes of land cover types were the reclamation of grassland and desert. And the land cover types of artificial oasis in Shule River Basin showed an increasing trend from 1975 to 2020. The oasis changes could be divided into two stages:slow expansion from 1975 to 2000 and rapid expansion from 2000 to 2020. (4) As the ratio of artificial to natural oases area increased from 3:7 (1975) to 5:5 (2020), the eco-environmental quality of oases increased firstly and then decreased, reaching the highest value in 2005. This study can provide data support and scientific basis for the steady development of oasis ecosystem in Shule River Basin. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Climate change impact on water resources in Indian river basins: A review

Climate change impact on water resources in Indian river basins: A review

The impact of anthropogenic pollution on the water resources of the South Bug river basin

The impact of anthropogenic pollution on the water resources of the South Bug river basin

Multi-Objective Optimal Allocation of River Basin Water Resources under Full Probability Scenarios Considering Wet-Dry Encounters: A Case Study of Yellow River Basin.

Wet–dry encounters between basins and regions have an important impact on the allocation of water resources. This study proposes a multi-objective allocation model for basin water resources under full probability scenarios considering wet–dry encounters (FPS-MOWAM) to solve the problem of basin water resource allocation. In the FPS-MOWAM model, the sub-regions were merged by precipitation correlation analysis. Next, the joint probability distribution of basin runoff and region precipitation was constructed using copula functions. The possible wet–dry encounter scenarios and their probabilities were then acquired. Finally, the multi-objective allocation model of water resources was constructed using the full probability scenario for wet–dry encounters in each region. The FPS-MOWAM is calculated by the NSGA-II algorithm and the optimal water resource allocation scheme was selected using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Using the Yellow River Basin as an example, the following conclusions were obtained: (1) the Yellow River Basin can be divided into four sub-regions based on precipitation correlations: Qh-Sc (Qinghai, Sichuan), Sg-Nx-Nmg (Gansu, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia), Sxq-Sxj (Shaanxi, Shanxi), and Hn-Sd (Henan, Shandong), (2) the inconsistencies in synchronous–asynchronous encounter probabilities in the Yellow River Basin were significant (the asynchronous probabilities were 0.763), whereas the asynchronous probabilities among the four regions were 0.632, 0.932, and 0.763 under the high, medium, and low flow conditions in the Yellow River Basin respectively, and (3) the allocation of water resources tends to increase with time, allocating the most during dry years. In 2035, the expected economic benefits are between 11,982.7 billion CNY and 12,499.6 billion CNY, while the expected water shortage rate is between 2.02% and 3.43%. In 2050, the expected economic benefits are between 21,291.4 billion CNY and 21,781.3 billion CNY, while the expected water shortage rate is between 1.28% and 6.05%.