Water Resources Management Planning Research Articles

Risk‐based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties

AbstractWe present a risk‐based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long‐term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate‐related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand‐side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply‐side and demand‐side management strategies can be compared based on how cost‐effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.

Improving drought predictability in Arkansas using the ensemble PDSI forecast technique

Drought prediction is important for improved water resources management and agriculture planning. Although Arkansas has suffered severe droughts and economic loss in recent years, no significant study has been done. This study proposes a local nonparametric autoregressive model with designed stochastic residual-resampling approach to produce ensemble drought forecasts with associated confidence. The proposed model utilizes historical climate records, including drought indices, temperature, and precipitation to improve the quality of the short-term forecast of drought indices. Monthly forecasts of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in Arkansas climate divisions show remarkable skills with 2–3 month lead-time based on selected performance measure such as, Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) and the Kuiper Skill Score (KSS). Rank histograms also show that the model captures the natural variability very well in the produced drought forecasts. The incorporation of categorical long-term precipitation prediction significantly enhances the performance of the monthly drought forecasts.

Two-stage credibility-constrained programming with Hurwicz criterion (TCP-CH) for planning water resources management

In water-resources management problems, uncertainties exist in a number of impact factors and water-allocation processes, which can bring about enormous difficulties and challenges in generating desired decision alternatives under such complexities. In this study, a two-stage credibility-constrained programming with Hurwicz criterion (TCP-CH) approach is developed for water resources management and planning under uncertainty. TCP-CH can tackle uncertainties presented as probability distributions and fuzzy sets that exist in left- and right-hand sides of constraints and in objective function; it can also permit in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios based on confidence degrees that are associated with different levels of economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. The TCP-CH method is applied to a real case of planning water resources in Kaidu-qongque River basin, which is one of the aridest regions of China. Support-vector-regression (SVR) technique is introduced into TCP-CH for predicting the water demand in the future, which takes advantage of uncertainty reflection and dynamic analysis. Results of water allocation, water shortage, system benefit, and economic penalty are obtained. The results discover that water deficit has brought negative effects on regional economic development, particularly for agricultural production activities. Moreover, tradeoffs between economic benefit and system-failure risk are also examined under different risk preferences of decision makers (i.e., optimistic and pessimistic criteria), which support generating an increased robustness in risk control for water resources allocation under uncertainties. These findings can facilitate the local decision makers in adjusting the current water-allocation pattern based on risk preference option (Hurwicz criterion) to satisfy the increasing water demand.

Long-term variation analysis of a tropical river’s annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period

Studying the long-term changes of streamflow is an important tool for enhancing water resource and river system planning, design, and management. The aim of this work is to identify the long-term variations in annual streamflow regime over a 50-year period from 1961 to 2010 in the Selangor River, which is one of the main tropical rivers in Malaysia. Initially, the data underwent preliminary independence, normality, and homogeneity testing using the Pearson correlation coefficient and Shapiro–Wilk and Pettitt’s tests, respectively. The work includes a study and analysis of the changes through nine variables describing the annual streamflow and variations in the yearly duration of high and low streamflows. The analyses were conducted via two time scales: yearly and sub-periodic. The sub-periods were obtained by segmenting the 50 years into seven sub-periods by two techniques, namely the change-point test and direct method. Even though analysis revealed nearly negligible changes in mean annual flow over the study period, the maximum annual flow generally increased while the minimum annual flow significantly decreased with respect to time. It was also observed that the variables describing the dispersion in streamflow continually increased with respect to time. An obvious increase was detected in the yearly duration of danger level of streamflow, a slight increase was noted in the yearly duration of warning and alert levels, and a slight decrease in the yearly duration of low streamflow was found. The perceived changes validate the existence of long-term changes in annual streamflow regime, which increase the probability of floods and droughts occurring in future. In light of the results, attention should be drawn to developing water resource management and flood protection plans in order to avert the harmful effects potentially resulting from the expected changes in annual streamflow regime.

Visualizing relationships between hydrology, climate, and water level fluctuations on Earth's largest system of lakes

Understanding drivers behind monthly, annual, and decadal water level fluctuations on the North American Great Lakes is a high priority for regional research and water resource management planning. The need for improved understanding of these relationships is underscored by a series of recent unprecedented extreme water level patterns, including (but not limited to) record low water levels on Lakes Michigan and Huron in December 2012 and January 2013. To address this need, we developed the Great Lakes Hydro-Climate Dashboard (GLHCD), a dynamic flash-based web interface that builds upon the previously-released Great Lakes Water Level Dashboard (GLWLD). In addition to including water level data and projections from the GLWLD, the GLHCD presents a range of hydrological and climatological data through an improved graphical user interface specifically designed to manage, and display simultaneously, a variety of data time series from different sources. By serving as a common portal to critical regional hydro-climate and water level data, the GLHCD helps visualize and explain lake level phenomena including water level declines across all of the Great Lakes in the early 1960s and their relationship to changes in regional precipitation, as well as the abrupt water level declines in the late 1990s and their relationship to remarkable changes in over-lake evaporation. By providing insight into these, and other important regional hydro-climate events, the GLHCD helps practitioners, researchers, and the general public improve their understanding of the drivers behind Great Lakes water levels, and to employ that understanding in prudent water resource management planning.

A dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, a dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (DFSP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. DFSP incorporates interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fuzzy vertex analysis (FVA) within a fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) framework to address uncertain parameters described as probability distributions and dual intervals. It can also be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences since penalties are exercised with recourse actions against any infeasibility. A real case for water resources management planning of Zhangweinan River Basin in China is then conducted for demonstrating the applicability of the developed DFSP method. Solutions in association with α-cut levels are generated by solving a set of deterministic submodels, which are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under compound uncertainties. The results can help to identify desired water-allocation schemes for local sustainable development that the prerequisite water demand can be guaranteed when the available water resource is scarce.

Quantification of the adverse effects of drought caused by water supply restrictions considering the changes in household water consumption characteristics

The volume of urban water used in Japan has been gradually declining in recent years because of the increase in water saving appliances and water saving behaviours. Changes in household water consumption characteristics affect the extent of the adverse effects caused when water supply restrictions are imposed. These changes must be reflected in reservoir operation plans in times of drought and when developing long-term water resource management plans or water conservation policies. The objective of this study is to quantify the adverse effects of drought associated with changes in consumption characteristics and utilize this in water resource management plans. We use a water consumption model that accounts for changes in household water consumption characteristics, and we apply this model to several droughts in different periods and cities in Japan. Results indicate that reductions in water consumption because of water supply restrictions tend to decrease over time. We concluded that imposing water supply restrictions during droughts has become less effective for maintaining reservoir storage. In designing water resource management plans, it is important to simultaneously evaluate changes in probability of supply-shortage events and the impact of water supply restrictions.

Tools to improve the management of transboundary river basins for disaster risk reduction

This paper firstly presents a brief overview of the complex environment of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region in the context of disaster risk reduction (DRR), analyzing characteristics of the major hazards and actors involved. Secondly, it argues that the SADC Water Division and International River Basin Organizations (RBOs) in Southern Africa can play a crucial role in DRR in the water sector, providing a platform where agreements on data and information sharing are reached, best practices are exchanged, policies harmonized, new collaboration mechanisms are discussed, and coordinated interventions are decided upon. Moreover, RBOs can facilitate the adoption of basin-wide Integrated Water Resource Management plans, building on the pillars of economic efficiency, social equity and environmental sustainability with the result of reducing hazards and increasing resilience. RBOs can represent the shared interests of riparian states from a basin perspective to other international actors. To achieve these goals, RBOs in Southern Africa face significant challenges: broadening stakeholder participation, gaining buy-in from Member States on their representation and facilitation of specific matters. Possible approaches to overcome these challenges will be suggested in this paper.

Water Loss from the Great Lakes

Knowledge of the drivers behind recent record low water levels in the North American Great Lakes can help water resource management planning.

Spatial patterns and temporal trends of daily precipitation indices in Iran

Spatial patterns of daily precipitation indices and their temporal trends over Iran are investigated using the APHRODITE gridded daily precipitation dataset for the period 1961–2004. The performance and limitations of the gridded dataset are checked against observations at ten rain-gauge stations that are representative of different climates in Iran. Results suggest that the spatial patterns of the indices reflect the role of orography and sea neighborhoods in differentiating central-southern arid and semi-arid regions from northern and western mountainous humid areas. It is also found that western Iran is impacted by the most extreme daily precipitation events occurring in the country, though the number of rainy days has its maximum in the Caspian Sea region. The time series of precipitation indices is checked for long-term trends using the least squares method and Mann-Kendall test. The maximum daily precipitation per year shows upward trends in most of Iran, though being statistically significant only in western regions. In the same regions, upward trends are also observed in the number of wet days and in the accumulated precipitation and intensity during wet days. Conversely, the contribution of precipitation events below the 75th percentile to the annual total precipitation is decreasing with time, suggesting that extreme events are responsible for the upward trend observed in the total annual precipitation and in the other indices. This tendency towards more severe/extreme precipitation events, if confirmed by other datasets and further analyses with longer records, would require the implementation of adequate water resources management plans in western Iran aimed at mitigating the increasing risk of intense precipitation and associated flash floods and soil erosion.

Spatial Pattern of Populus euphratica Forest Change as Affected by Water Conveyance in the Lower Tarim River

To restore declining species, including Populus euphratica and other riparian communities, in the river ecosystem of the lower Tarim River, the ecological water conveyance project (EWCP), as a part of an integrated water resource management plan, was implemented in 2000. The EWCP aims to schedule and manage the water resources in the upper reaches and transfer water to the lower reaches by a series of intermittent water deliveries. The delivered water flows along a modified river channel and nourishes riparian communities by river overflow flooding. Since it began, it has caused a fierce debate over the response of riparian vegetation to the water conveyance scheme. This study focuses on the lower Tarim River, where Populus euphratica forests have undergone watering, due to the EWCP. Twelve Landsat sensor images and one IKONOS satellite imagery acquired between 1999 and 2009 were used to monitor the change in Populus euphratica forests. Bi-temporal change detection and temporal trajectory analysis were employed to represent the spatial pattern of the forest change. Field investigations were used to analyze the driving forces behind forest change from the perspectives of anthropogenic activities and natural forces. The results showed that Populus euphratica forest have been declining in area, which implies that ecological risks have been increased during the watering process. However, forests areas have increased in the regions where the water supply is abundant, and vice versa.

Integrating Stakeholders’ Preferences into Water Resources Management Planning in the Incomati River Basin

Stakeholder participation is a key principle of the integrated water resources management. It is a central issue in planning and decision making processes for the development of suitable water resources management strategies at the river basin level. This study tests a methodology for identifying stakeholders’ preferences regarding water resources management objectives, to incorporate them in the design of water resources management plans at the river basin level. The empirical application of this study focused in Mozambique, on the Incomati river basin. This research applies the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to evaluate stakeholders’ involvement and participation in the selection of water resources management plans. This research revealed that there are heterogeneities in stakeholders’ individual groups preferences regarding water resources management objectives and the management options of their satisfaction. Furthermore it revealed the potential utility of the AHP methodological framework in facilitating stakeholders’ participation and involvement in planning and decision-making processes for the development of water resources management plans. The application of this approach may improve water governance at the river basin level through higher commitments of stakeholders to the proposed objectives.

Geomorphometric analysis of a hilly watershed in north east India

Morphometric analysis of a hilly watershed was carried out using GIS. The drainage map generated from the Survey of India toposheets was used for morphometric analysis of the watershed in terms of stream order, stream length, bifurcation ratio, relief ratio, drainage density, stream frequency, drainage texture, form factor, circulatory ratio, elongation ratio, infiltration number and ruggedness number. The Um Shipra watershed is a fifth order watershed having dendritic drainage pattern with high drainage density (6.22 km.km−2). The logarithmic plot of the stream length versus stream order showed a linear relationship indicating the watershed has developed over a homogeneous rock material. The mean bifurcation ratio of 1.71 indicated absence of strong structural control on the drainage pattern and that the watershed was structurally less disturbed. The number of streams belonging to the order I, II, III, IV and V were found to be 327, 147, 78, 45 and 46 respectively. Lower values of form factor (0.19), circularity ratio (0.29) and elongation ratio (0.49) suggested that the watershed has elongated shape with lower peak flows for longer duration. The ruggedness number having relatively higher value implied that the area has rugged topography which is prone to soil erosion. Higher values of stream frequency and drainage density indicated that the watershed has high runoff potential despite having lower peak flow creating a good scope for surface water resource development. The results obtained can serve as a useful input for developing soil and water resources conservation and management plan on a watershed basis.

Evaluation of the Impact of the Ongoing Water Resource Management Plans on Nitrate Concentration in Gaza Coastal Aquifer Using Modeling Approach

Groundwater crisis in Gaza includes two major folds: shortage of water supply and contamination. The groundwater pollution by nitrates increased rapidly as a result of wastewater leakage, sewage sludge, animal manure and N-fertilizers. The aims of this study are to obtain the impacts of implementing the Gaza Emergency Technical Assistance Programme (GETAP) on the nitrate concentration in groundwater in Gaza Strip using modeling approach. A flow and transport model using a three dimensional, finite difference simulation model (VMODFLOW Pro.) was applied to simulate the Gaza coastal aquifer (GCA). The approach for selecting the management scenarios was carried out depending on the GETAP projects and focuses into the aquifer system during the next 24 years. It was estimated that work as usual scenario will raise the average nitrate concentration by 8.15 mg/l annually, while upgrade and maintain pipe work scenario will reduce the rising of average nitrate concentration by 4.51 mg/l annually. This means that the average nitrate concentration will increase by only 3.63 mg/l annually. Also, it was estimated that scenarios imported water from Israel, construction of short term low volume desalination plant (STLV), Construction of two regional desalination plant and Reuse of treated wastewater in addition to decrease N-fertilizer will annually increase the average nitrate concentration by only (4.67, 2.78, 3.87, 2.15) mg/l, respectively. The results show that applying all the scenarios together will decrease the average nitrate concentration by 2.44 mg/l annually. Regionally, the best scenario to solve the increasing of nitrate concentration problem is a combination of those scenarios. In domestic areas, the best scenarios is STLV and upgrading and maintaining pipe work. In Agriculture areas, the best scenario and the only one that has significant effect is the reuse of treated wastewater in addition to decrease N-fertilizer.

Groundwater spring potential mapping using bivariate statistical model and GIS in the Taleghan Watershed, Iran

The aim of the current study was to produce groundwater spring potential map using a bivariate statistical model (frequency ratio) and geographical information system (GIS) in the Taleghan Watershed, Alborz Province, Iran. Firstly, field surveys were done for identifying and springs inventory mapping. In total, 457 springs were identified and mapped in GIS; out of that, 320 (70 %) locations were selected for training and the remaining 137 (30 %) cases were used for the model validation. The effective factors on the groundwater spring such as: slope percent, slope aspect, altitude, topographic wetness index, stream power index, slope length, plan curvature, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, lithology, land use, soil hydrology groups, and drainage density were derived from the spatial database. Using the above effective factors, groundwater spring potential mapping was calculated using FR model as a bivariate statistical model, and the results were plotted in Arc GIS. Eventually, the receiver operating characteristic curve was drawn for spring potential map and the area under the curve (AUC) was figured. Validation of results indicated that the frequency ratio model (AUC = 75.99 %) performed fairly good predication accuracy. The results of groundwater spring potential map may be helpful for planners and engineers in water resource management and land use planning.

Development of a fuzzy-queue-based stochastic quadratic program for water resources planning

In this study, a fuzzy-queue (FQ)-based inexact stochastic quadratic programming (SQP) method is developed through coupling FQ technique with inexact SQP. FQ-SQP improves upon the existing stochastic programming methods by considering the effects of queuing phenomenon during the water resources allocation process. FQ-SQP cannot only handle uncertainties expressed as interval values, random variables, and fuzzy sets, but also tackle nonlinearity in the objective function; more importantly, it can reflect the effects of FQ on water resources allocation and system benefit. The FQ-SQP model is applied to a case study of planning water resources management, where FM/FM/1 (fuzzy exponential interarrival time, fuzzy exponential service time, and one server) queue is incorporated within the SQP modeling framework. Based on α-cut analysis technique, interval solutions with fuzzy arrival and service rates have been generated, which result in different water resources allocation patterns as well as changed waiting water amounts and system benefits. Results indicate that consideration of queuing problem impacts on water resources allocation can provide more useful information for decision makers and gain in-depth insights into the effects of queuing problems for water resources allocation.

Fuzzy chance-constrained linear fractional programming approach for optimal water allocation

A fuzzy chance-constrained linear fractional programming method was developed for agricultural water resources management under multiple uncertainties. This approach improved upon the previous programming methods, and could reflect the ratio objective function and multiple uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and their combinations. The proposed approach is applied to an agricultural water resources management system where many crops are considered under different precipitation years. Through the scenarios analyses, the multiple alternatives are presented. The solutions show that it is applicable to practical problems to address the crop water allocation under the precipitation variation and sustainable development with ratio objective function of the benefit and the irrigation amount. It also provides bases for identifying desired agriculture water resources management plans with reasonable benefit and irrigation schedules under crops.

Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India

In this study, trend analyses of historic past climatic variables were investigated for the Betwa basin located in Central India. In the serially independent climatic variables, Mann–Kendall test (MK test) was applied to the original sample data. However, in the serially correlated series, pre-whitening is used before employing the MK test. The long-term trend analysis showed several of the meteorological stations to exhibit a decreasing trend in annual and seasonal precipitation in the study area. Seasonal and yearly numbers of rainy days are decreased. However, onset of effective monsoon (except for Shivpuri and Tikamgarh stations) did not show any trend during the study period. For maximum temperature, five out of 12 stations showed a decreasing trend in monsoon season whereas almost all other stations showed an increasing trend in winter and no trend in summer season. For minimum temperature, only two stations of the basin showed a decreasing trend in monsoon and all other stations exhibited a significant increase in winter and summer season. The increase of winter temperature may adversely affect the growth of Rabi crop (wheat and mustard) in the study area. Potential evopotranspiration (PET) did not show any trend in monsoon, except for Jalaun and Jhansi stations, showing decreasing trends. Raisen and Vidisha stations showed an increasing trend in winter only, and the trend for other stations were random in nature. In summer, five out of 12 stations showed an increasing trend in PET. Results of this study can be employed in preparation of water resources development and management plan in the Betwa Basin.

Distributional change of monthly precipitation due to climate change: comprehensive examination of dataset in southeastern United States

AbstractA number of watersheds are selected from the Hydro‐Climate Data Network over southeastern United States to examine possible changes in hydrological time series, e.g. precipitation, introduced by changing climate. Possible changes in monthly precipitation are examined by three different methods to detect second order stationarity, abrupt changes in the variance and smooth changes in quantiles of the time series. An analysis of second order stationarity shows that precipitation in eight of the 56 watersheds display nonstationary behaviour. Change‐point analyses reveal that changes in the long‐term variance of monthly precipitation are only detected for a few sites. As a complementary analysis tool, quantile regression aims to detect potential changes of different percentiles of the monthly precipitation over time. Several sites show diverging trends in the quantiles, which implies that the range and thus variance of the data, is increasing. As distinct change‐points are not identified, this suggests that the effect is small and cumulative. Results are analysed in detail, and possible explanations are provided. This type of thorough analysis provides a basis for understanding the possible redistribution of water cycle. It also provides implications for water resources management and hydrological engineering facility design and planning. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Occurrences and fate of an antibiotic amoxicillin in extended aeration-based sewage treatment plant in Delhi, India: a case study of emerging pollutant

In recent years, pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCPs) have been detected in various environmental matrices, including ground water, surface water, and municipal wastewater. In order to evaluate the impact of PPCPs on environment, their distribution must be accurately established in these matrices first, as very limited studies have been carried out especially in the Indian subcontinent. In this study, the occurrence and removal of an antibiotic, Amoxicillin, at a sewage treatment plant (STP) located in Delhi has been studied. Amoxicillin was selected for its widespread use as a prescribed over the counter drug.Sampling exercises were carried out over a period of six months so as to cover seasonal variations. Sewage samples were collected from the influents and effluents of STP to determine the occurrences and removal of the amoxicillin. Concentration of amoxicillin in the untreated raw sewage at the STP varied from “not detected” (ND) to 172.6 ng L-1. After treatment, it varied from ND to 62.5 ng L-1. Average removal efficiency was 49.7%. Presently, there is great focus on the reuse of the treated sewage. So, findings of the study can help to build a better understanding of reuse options for treated effluents and preparation of appropriate water resources management plans.