Water Resources Management Planning Research Articles

Scalable and Interpretable Forecasting of Hydrological Time Series Based on Variational Gaussian Processes

Accurate streamflow forecasting is crucial for effectively managing water resources, particularly in countries like Colombia, where hydroelectric power generation significantly contributes to the national energy grid. Although highly interpretable, traditional deterministic, physically-driven models often suffer from complexity and require extensive parameterization. Data-driven models like Linear Autoregressive (LAR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks offer simplicity and performance but cannot quantify uncertainty. This work introduces Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes (SVGPs) for forecasting streamflow contributions. The proposed SVGP model reduces computational complexity compared to traditional Gaussian Processes, making it highly scalable for large datasets. The methodology employs optimal hyperparameters and shared inducing points to capture short-term and long-term relationships among reservoirs. Training, validation, and analysis of the proposed approach consider the streamflow dataset from 23 geographically dispersed reservoirs recorded during twelve years in Colombia. Performance assessment reveals that the proposal outperforms baseline Linear Autoregressive (LAR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models in three key aspects: adaptability to changing dynamics, provision of informative confidence intervals through Bayesian inference, and enhanced forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the SVGP-based forecasting methodology offers a scalable and interpretable solution for multi-output streamflow forecasting, thereby contributing to more effective water resource management and hydroelectric planning.

High-resolution estimates of water availability for the Iberian Peninsula under climate scenarios

Water availability is of paramount importance for sustainable development and environmental planning, specifically in regions such as the Iberian Peninsula, renowned for diverse landscapes and varying climatic conditions. Due to climate change, understanding the potential impacts on water resources becomes essential for effective water management strategies. This research effort aims to assess future potential water availability for the Iberian Peninsula in different climate scenarios, employing cutting-edge water resource modelling techniques integrated within a geographic information system (GIS) framework. In this study, potential water availability is defined as the annual demand for water that can be satisfied at a specific point in the fluvial network with certain reliability. An ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models is utilised to project runoff for the Iberian Peninsula during the mid- and late-twenty-first century periods. These climate projections were subsequently processed using the GIS-based water resource management model, WAAPA, to derive potential water availability under a range of realistic hypotheses. The results indicate that anticipated shifts in precipitation patterns will lead to alterations in hydrological regimes across the region, significantly impacting future water availability. By using GIS-based methodologies, we can facilitate the identification of vulnerable areas susceptible to changes in water availability, offering spatially explicit information along the main rivers of the Iberian Peninsula for decision-makers and stakeholders. High-resolution spatial outputs from this research and detailed water availability estimates serve as valuable input for integrated water resource management and climate change adaptation planning. By combining advanced GIS-based hydrological modelling with climate scenarios, this research presents a robust framework for assessing water resources amidst a changing climate, applicable to other regions struggling with analogous challenges. Ultimately, our study provides vital insights for policymakers and stakeholders, empowering them to make informed decisions and devise adaptive measures to ensure sustainable use of water resources despite uncertain future climatic conditions.

Impact assessment of agricultural droughts on water use efficiency in different climatic regions of Punjab Province Pakistan using MODIS time series imagery

AbstractDrought is the most destructive phenomenon that distresses the terrestrial carbon cycle balance and crop production. The variation in evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) is a significant cause of agricultural drought effects on water use efficiency. This study aims to evaluate the impact of agricultural drought on WUE and it's anomalies in different climate regions. The standard vegetation index was used to measure the extent of agricultural drought. WUE was calculated using the ratio of ET, GPP, and climate classification using the De Martonne method. This study was conducted over the last 22 years, from 2001 to 2022. Meanwhile, 2001, 2002, 2014, and 2018 were considered high drought years based on a 22‐year analysis. According to remote sensing analysis of ET and GPP, the WUE increased throughout drought in all climate regions and more strongly in the arid zone than in humid regions. Humid areas were more vital due to drought than arid ones. WUE anomalies badge with increased drought severity across all climates except the very humid zone. Humid climates saw faster recovery times than arid ones, and areas experienced severe droughts. The findings of this research are essential for understanding the carbon and water cycles for agriculture management. The analysis of drought severity and WUE across arid climate regions helped analyse the varying impact of drought on WUE due to climate change. The significance of this study includes informing agricultural, water resource, and drought management planning in the Punjab Province, an agricultural region vulnerable to climate change. This study holds important learnings for agricultural regions worldwide. It has practical and scientific importance regarding agricultural systems' specific stresses and responses to droughts.

Unlocking policy effects: Water resources management plans and urban water pollution

Water resource management, as a foundation for supporting sustainable urban development, has garnered increasing attention from scholars. Developing effective water resource management plans is a major challenge faced by countries worldwide. This study uses the 2015 Water Pollution Control and Prevention Action Plan (WPCAP) in China as a natural experiment and employs a Difference-in-Differences (DID) model to estimate the relationship between WPCAP and urban water pollution from 2010 to 2021. The findings are as follows: 1) WPCAP reduces water pollution. 2) WPCAP decreases water pollution in high-policy-pressure cities but increases water pollution in low-policy-pressure cities within a 60 km radius, particularly having a significantly negative impact on water pollution in low-policy-pressure cities with low altitude. 3) optimizing industrial and domestic water use, as well as enhancing sewage treatment capabilities, are crucial pathways through which WPCAP reduces water pollution. Additionally, WPCAP significantly improves water pollution control capabilities in cities with abundant water resources, large cities, and industrialized cities. 4) although WPCAP's ability to control water pollution increases management costs, it also raises residential income and promotes population growth. These findings have important implications for the sustainable development of water resources in emerging countries, including China.

Population regeneration of two Haloxylon species in central Asian deserts as affected by groundwater depth

Haloxylon ammodendron and Haloxylon persicum are the dominant species in the deserts of Central Asia. As groundwater exploration has resulted in a decline in groundwater depth in this region, the impact on the regeneration of these two Haloxylon populations calls for urgent attention. Therefore, we conducted an intensive vegetation survey, including population density, age structure and seed production and seed characteristics, along a groundwater depth gradient in the Gurbantunggut Desert of Central Asia. The result shows that for H. ammodendron, groundwater depth of 15 m is its survival and regeneration limit, beyond which this species cannot grow. However, for H. persicum, this limit does not apply. Instead, declined groundwater depth promotes a reproduction strategy with low seed quantity, high quality, and a high germination rate for H. ammodendron. Ultimately, H. ammodendron exhibits a tighter regeneration trait coordination, with a reasonable age structure being crucial for its population continuation and environmental adaptation. In contrast, H. persicum demonstrates higher resource acquisition and reproductive ability, along with tolerance to groundwater depth decline. In conclusion, if the groundwater depth decline continues, the continuation of H. ammodendron will be seriously threatened but H. persicum will not be. This study is beneficial for evaluating the future trend of vegetation cover in desert region and planning water resources management in Central Asia.

Evaluation of hydrological responses to climate change in the Gibe Gojeb catchment, southwestern Ethiopia

ABSTRACT The expected influences of climate alteration on hydrological responses in the Gibe Gojeb catchment, southwestern Ethiopia, were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and regional climate models (RCMs). This study emphasizes the evaluation of the climate change impact on hydrological responses. The RCM data were downloaded from CORDEX-Africa. Power transformation and delta change methods were used for bias correction of precipitation and temperature, respectively. The calibration and validation of the SWAT model showed good agreement, and climate change impact was simulated. Accordingly, precipitation, soil water content, percolation, water yield, and groundwater are projected to decrease by 28.18, 7.5, 9.1, 5.4, and 9.2%, respectively, under RCP4.5 in the future (2021–2050). Besides, surface runoff and potential and actual evapotranspiration are projected to increase by 17.4, 11.32, and 5.06%, respectively. Soil water content, percolation, water yield, and precipitation are projected to decrease by 10.51, 5.63, 2.76, and 21.57%, respectively, under RCP8.5 in the future. Rain-fed crop production and hydropower generation in the catchment would be vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The results help to develop effective adaptation measures to reduce the impacts of climate change and draft long-term water resource management plans in the Gibe Gojeb catchment.

Changes in terrestrial water storage in the Three-North region of China over 2003–2021: Assessing the roles of climate and vegetation restoration

Large-scale vegetation restoration has markedly enhanced ecosystem services in the Three-North (TN) region, concurrently exacerbating the pre-existing water resource crisis stemming from climate change in this arid domain. However, the specific contributions of climate and vegetation changes to the evolution of water resources in the TN region have yet to be elucidated. This study leverages data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its Follow-on mission (GRACE-FO), specifically the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from 2003 to 2021. We identify two TWSA rising (TWSA_rⅠ and TWSA_rⅡ) and two declining (TWSA_dⅠ and TWSA_dⅡ) hotspots in the TN region. By exploring the relative importance of climate drivers and vegetation dynamics in influencing the temporal dynamics of TWSA, we found that vegetation restoration assumes a more pivotal role than climate factors in 45.2% of the total area within the identified hotspots, predominantly evident in TWSA declining hotspots. The heightened TWSA in TWSA_rⅠ and TWSA_rⅡ primarily stems from precipitation recharge, with precipitation-dominated areas constituting 19.3% of the area within the identified hotspots. Potential evapotranspiration dominates TWSA changes in only 4.6% of the region within the identified hotspots, primarily scattered in TWSA_dⅠ and TWSA_dⅡ. Furthermore, a comparative assessment of soil moisture and groundwater responses to environmental factors indicates that water storage at shallower layers is more responsive to climate factors, while the impacts of vegetation changes on TWSA are more discernibly reflected in water storage at deeper layers. These findings furnish scientific guidance for future ecological restoration planning and sustainable water resources management.

Remote Sensing and GIS Aided Land and Water Management Plan Preparation of Watershed - A Case Study

Remote Sensing and GIS techniques were applied for the integrated watershed planning of Bajpur watershed in Khurda sadar block of Khurda district (Orissa). IRS ID, LISS III F.c.c. satellite images and toposheet number 73H/12 together with verification were used as the data source. Thematic maps like land use/ land cover map, hydrogeomorphology map, soil map, slope map, drainage and surface water body maps were prepared by using both satellite imageries and survey ofIndia toposheet. By integrating all these maps in GIS, water and land resource management plans were developed. The water resources development plan indicates the sites for groundwater exploitation and sites for surface water development including sites for different soil and water conservation structures. Eleven action items were suggested under land resource action plan with specific sites, aerial locations and maps. Thus remote sensing technology demonstrates the usefulness for providing up-to-date, reliable and accurate information on different natural resources of the watershed which is a pre-requisite for an integrated approach to identify the suitable sites for water harvesting structures, check dams, farm ponds, percolation tanks, nala bunds etc. The GIS technique is helpful to integrate the information into a composite land unit development map to generate alternate land use system for sustainable development of the watershed.

Assessing Climate-Change-Driven Impacts on Water Scarcity: A Case Study of Low-Flow Dynamics in the Lower Kalu River Basin, Sri Lanka

The adverse impacts of climate change are becoming more frequent and severe worldwide, and Sri Lanka has been identified as one of the most severely affected countries. Hence, it is vital to understand the plausible climate-change-driven impacts on water resources to ensure water security and socio-economic well-being. This study presents novel assessments on low-flow dynamics along the lower Kalu River Basin, Sri Lanka, and water availability during the dry spells of the 2030–2060 period. Bias-corrected daily precipitation projections of a high resolution (25 km × 25 km) NCC-NORESM1-M regional climate model is used here to force a calibrated HEC-HMS hydrological model to project catchment discharge during the future period considered under the two end-member Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Our results show that the study area (i.e., Kuda Ganga sub-basin) may become warmer (in non-monsoonal periods) and wetter (in monsoon season) under both scenarios during the near future (2030–2040) when compared to the baseline period (1976–2005) considered. Consequently, the streamflow may reduce, making it the decade with the largest water deficit within the time horizon. The subsequent deficit volume assessment for the 2031–2040 period shows a probable water shortage (~5 million m3) under the RCP 2.6 scenario, which may last for ~47 days with an average daily intensity of 105,000 m3. Our results highlight the need of incorporating climate-change-driven impacts in water resources management plans to ensure water security.

Enhancing reclaimed water distribution network resilience with cost-effective meshing

Water Distribution Networks (WDNs) are critical infrastructures that ensure a continuous supply of safe water to homes. In the face of challenges, like water scarcity, establishing resilient networks is imperative, especially in regions vulnerable to water crises. This study evaluates the resilience of network designs through graph theory, including its hydraulic feasibility using EPANET software, an aspect often overlooked. Novel mathematical algorithms, including Resilience by Design (RbD) and Resilience-strengthening (RS) algorithms, provide cost-effective and resilient network designs, even with budget constraints. A novel metric, Water Availability (WA), is introduced to offer a comprehensive measure of network resilience, thereby addressing ongoing discrepancies in resilience evaluation methods. Practical benefits are illustrated through a case study in which a resilient-by-design reclaimed water network is created, and an existing equivalent non-resilient network is improved. The resilient-by-design network demonstrates remarkably better results compared to the equivalent non-resilient design, including up to a 36 % reduction in the probability of service disruptions and a nearly 65 % decrease in the annual average unserved water due to service disruptions. These findings underscore the enormous advantages of a resilience-focused network design approach. When compared to the equivalent non-resilient design, the resilient-by-design network generated effectively safeguards up to a significant 91,700m3 of water from the impacts of water disruption events over a 50-year operational period. In addition, the resilient-by-design WDN solution incurs a subtle decrease in overall costs compared to consuming tap water from the drinking WDN baseline over a 50-year operational period. These findings highlight the cost-effectiveness of the approach, even offering financial benefits. This paper builds on our previous research by expanding its scope to include resilience considerations, providing algorithms that can be easily adapted from reclaimed to drinking WDNs. Ultimately, we contribute to the enhancement of water resource management and infrastructure planning in ever-evolving urban environments.

Analysing Spatial and Temporal Rainfall Variability of Southern Rajasthan using GIS Approach

This study focuses on analysing the behavioral patterns of rainfall in southern Rajasthan, particularly in reference to its amount and variation over time. The study made use of standard meteorological weeks (SMW) and historic weekly rainfall records. IDW (Inverse Distance Weighting) interpolation technique within the ArcGIS platform was used for spatial analysis, creating spatial variation maps. It was found that significant rainfall occurred from Standard Meteorological Week (SMW)-22 to SMW-42. The weekly mean rainfall across the study area during the monsoon period ranged from 2.1 to 68.4 mm, with corresponding standard deviations ranging from 9.3 to 79.7 mm. Notably, the standard deviation was often higher than the mean, indicating substantial variability in weekly rainfall. Trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test revealed that most stations in the study area exhibited no significant trend in annual rainfall data. Similarly, weekly rainfall data showed a trend in SMW-30 for 44 stations, while all other weekly data series did not exhibit significant trends, except for SMW-30. Stationarity was generally accepted for most weekly data series, except for SMW-30 and SMW-32, which showed non-stationary behavior. However, homogeneity tests indicated homogeneity in weekly rainfall data series for almost all selected stations. Overall, the study highlighted the significant variability in rainfall patterns in southern Rajasthan, with no significant trend in annual rainfall, except during the peak monsoon period (SMW-30). These findings contribute to a better understanding of regional rainfall behavior, which is crucial for water resource management and agricultural planning in the region.

Predicting Rainfall Pattern in Kakamega County using Time Series

Rainfall patterns play a critical role in shaping various aspects of our lives. Understanding the patterns, trends and predictability of rainfall is essential for effective planning and decision making in various aspects including agriculture, water resource management, disaster preparedness and social economic planning. In agricultural activities crops require specific amount of water at the right time for growth. By understanding the rainfall patterns, farmers can adapt their farming activities, optimizing irrigation strategies and make informed decisions. In the management, it help policy makers and management authorities for planning efficient water allocations and conservations measures. Therefore, in this paper we fit a time series model that best describes rainfall patterns of Kakamega county for the general ARIMA and generated the values of (P, D, Q) to forecast average expected monthly rainfall. Also we use R software for verification and data fitting of the model. The data we have used is from the Kakamega meteorological station in Kakamega.

Operational analysis of lake Tana under climate change, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

The excessive abstraction of lake water affects its sustainability and is common in Lake Tana. Hence this study aims to develop operation rule curves for optimum operation of Lake Tana reservoir by considering the effects of small and large-scale irrigation water abstraction, Hydropower demand, and climate change. The data used in this study were produced by two Global Circulation Models (GCMs) (MIROC5 and MPI) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in the 2040s (2020–2049) and 2070s (2050–2079). For RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the 2040s- and 2070s-time domains, lake temperature exhibits an upward trend. The lake rainfall also will show an increase for the 2040s and 2070s under both RCP scenarios. The outcome showed that in all future scenarios, lake evaporation under RCP4.5 of 2040s and 2070s rise between 3.6 % to 7 % and 4.6 % to 19, respectively, while for RCP8.5 of 2040s and 2070s increases between 4.6 % to 9.9 % and 9.2 % to 24.7 %. The surface water inflow increased for RCP4.5 (2070s) and RCP8.5 (2040s), whereas it declined for RCP4.5 (the 2040s) and RCP8.5 (2070s. Under both scenarios, the average value of the time-based and volumetric reliability in the 2040s and 2070s is less than 80 %. The reservoir will take a very long time to recover from the shortfall as the resilience levels are below 50 %. Additionally, the dimensionless vulnerability was less than 50 %, indicating that there won't be a shortage of inflow to meet demand at the reservoir. Based on evaluation, the reservoir will not probably perform well in any way because of the rise in upstream abstractions. To guide the operation of the reservoir, operation rule curves were developed using the Hec-ResSim model. Generally, the government, decisions, and policymakers should set a water resources management plan not trigger normal functioning of the Lake system.

Trends of Sediment Resuspension and Budget in Southern Lake Michigan Under Changing Wave Climate and Hydrodynamic Environment

AbstractSediment suspension and transport driven by waves and currents play a significant role in both the ecological and physical environments of large lakes. Lake Michigan has faced a rapidly increasing water level associated with intensified wind waves in the past decade. To investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and associated coastal sediment budgets in southern Lake Michigan, a 30‐year (1991–2020) hindcast was performed using a coupled wave‐current‐sediment model (SWAN‐FVCOM‐CSTMS). We found that in southern Lake Michigan, the basin‐wide mean SSC increased, and the coastal sediment loss accelerated dramatically, corresponding with intensified waves, currents and lake water level rises over the past decade. The basin‐wide mean SSC, coastal sediment loss, wave height, wind speed, current speed, and water level in southern Lake Michigan are highly correlated. Spatially, the results reveal decreases in coastal SSC and sediment loss in the western portion of the southern basin, while the eastern sectors show an increase in both metrics. This reflects a clear shift in the wave climate and hydrodynamic environment. The alterations in long‐term coastal sediment budgets imply that considerable shoreline transformations are being influenced by modifications in the wave climate. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of SSC and coastal sediment budgets is crucial for strategic water resource management and coastal infrastructure planning.

Analysing sensitivity of conditioning factors for wetland habitat quality modelling

Wetland habitat quality degradation, in addition to wetland loss, is a growing concern that demands rapid action. The purpose of the current study is to assess the sensitivity analysis of conditioning factors on the Wetland Habitat Quality State (WHQS) in the Rarh tract of Murshidabad, West Bengal. Total seventeen metrics in total, including water quality, hydrology, and landscape composition were employed to mapping WHQS. WHQS was modelled using machine learning techniques. The efficiency of the models was evaluated using statistical methods such as the Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Very strong portions of wetland area have been decreased from 32.74% in 1990 to 20.72% in 2020. According to the study, wetland fragmentation, distance from agricultural land, and trophic status factor of the wetlands are key elements that affect wetland habitat quality to a large extent. The current study's findings could serve as the foundation for developing water resource management plans for the management, conservation, and restoration of wetlands, in addition to doing extensive research on monitoring habitat quality in wetlands.

Deep Learning Approaches for Stream Flow and Peak Flow Prediction: A Comparative Study

Stream flow prediction is crucial for effective water resource management, flood prevention, and environmental planning. This study investigates the performance of various deep neural network architectures, including LSTM, biLSTM, GRU, and biGRU models, in stream flow and peak stream flow predictions. Traditional methods for stream flow forecasting have relied on hydrological models and statistical techniques, but recent advancements in machine learning and deep learning have shown promising results in improving prediction accuracy. The study compares the performance of the models using comprehensive evaluations with 1-6 input steps for both general stream flow and peak stream flow predictions. Additionally, a detailed analysis is conducted specifically for the biLSTM model, which demonstrated high performance results. The biLSTM model is evaluated for 1-4 ahead forecasting, providing insights into its specific strengths and capabilities in capturing the dynamics of stream flow. Results show that the biLSTM model outperforms other models in terms of prediction accuracy, especially for peak stream flow forecasting. Scatter plots illustrating the forecasting performances of the models further demonstrate the effectiveness of the biLSTM model in capturing temporal dependencies and nonlinear patterns in stream flow data. This study contributes to the literature by evaluating and comparing the performance of deep neural network models for general and peak stream flow prediction, highlighting the effectiveness of the biLSTM model in improving the accuracy and reliability of stream flow forecasts.

Evaluation of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balance of the Mixteco River Basin with the SWAT Model

Assessing the impact of climate change is essential for developing water resource management plans, especially in areas facing severe issues regarding ecosystem service degradation. This study assessed the effects of climate change on the hydrological balance using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model in the Mixteco River Basin (MRB), Oaxaca, Mexico. Temperature and precipitation were predicted with the projections of global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6); the bias was corrected using CMhyd software, and then the best performing GCM was selected for use in the SWAT model. According to the GCM MPI-ESM1-2-LR, precipitation might decrease by between 83.71 mm and 225.83 mm, while temperature might increase by between 2.57 °C and 4.77 °C, causing a greater atmospheric evaporation demand that might modify the hydrological balance of the MRB. Water yield might decrease by 47.40% and 61.01% under the climate scenarios SP245 and SSP585, respectively. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation measures are needed to offset the adverse impact of climate change in the MRB.

Hydrological effects of the conversion of tropical montane forest to agricultural land in the central Andes of Peru

AbstractAgricultural expansion is one of the main causes of deforestation of tropical montane forests in the central Andes of Peru. The hydrological impacts of converting forests to cropland are well known; however, an issue that is not entirely clear is related to the hydrological effects that can result from the conversion of montane forests to agroforestry systems and the recovery of the hydrological functions of montane forests after a disturbance. In this study, we compare the hydrological processes of different land covers previously modified by agricultural expansion, in order to determine the impact of the conversion of tropical montane forest to agricultural land on the ecosystem service of water provision and regulation. To achieve this, we establish study plots in four land cover types located in the central Andes of Peru (mature montane forest (BMC), natural regenerating secondary forest (BMR), coffee agroforestry systems (AF), and cropland (C)), for the purpose of measuring the vegetation structure and soil properties in them, and subsequently carry out a soil water balance in each plot to calculate the actual evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and groundwater recharge. The results revealed the following percentages (based on precipitation) for the hydrological components in the four land cover types: annual actual evapotranspiration—BMR (41.2%), AF (40.4%), BMC (40.0%), and C (38.0%); annual surface runoff—C (16.1%), BMC (8.3%), BMR (5.2%), and AF (4.6%); and annual groundwater recharge—AF (43.0%), BMR (41.6%), C (34.0%), and BMC (31.7%). Furthermore, the study also examined the relationship between vegetation structure and the hydrological components across the four land cover types. The findings indicated that the reduction of thicker and taller trees could increase surface runoff generation, whereas the presence of thinner and shorter trees could facilitate groundwater recharge. These results shed light on the complex interactions between land cover types, vegetation structure, and hydrological processes, emphasizing the importance of considering these factors in water resource management and land use planning.

Innovative Drought Classification Matrix and Acceptable Time Period for Temporal Drought Evaluation

Evaluating drought is paramount in water resources management and drought mitigation plans. Drought indices are essential tools in this evaluation, which mainly depends on the time period of the original datasets. Investigating the effects of time periods is critical for a comprehensive understanding and evaluation of drought. Also, It holds particular significance for regions facing data availability challenges. The existing literature reveals a gap in drought assessment and comparison analysis using conventional methods based on drought indices only. This research proposes an innovative drought classification matrix to compare drought indices and spatial and temporal scenarios; the proposed matrix depends on any drought classification for comparison procedure. Furthermore, it aims to investigate the differences between several time period scenarios based on the proposed matrix and several statistical metrics (R2, CC, RMSE, HH, and RB) and determine the acceptable/minimum time period. The application of the proposed matrix and selection of an acceptable/minimum time period is presented to three different climates: Durham station in the United Kingdom, Florya station in Türkiye, and Karapinar station in Türkiye. The results show that the time period scenarios are able to catch the reference time period (RTP) scenario reasonably, with strong correlation and negative relative bias. The 10-year time period is sufficient as an acceptable/minimum time period for short timescales, such as meteorological drought. Conversely, for longer timescales, such as hydrological drought, a 20-year time period is the acceptable/minimum time period. The proposed matrix demonstrates a robust and powerful framework for comparison, making it applicable to various drought assessment scenarios globally.

Assessing the impact of climate change on surface runoff of the Ubolratana Reservoir, Thailand

Assessing surface runoff in river basins is paramount for effectively managing water resources. Climate change significantly impacts the availability of water within these basins. The Ubolratana reservoir is vital for sustainable water supply, aquaculture, agricultural practices, and domestic needs. This research aims to evaluate the runoff availability of the reservoir by using the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) under distinct climate change scenarios. The HEC-HMS model was calibrated based on observed rainfall and runoff data. To project future runoff dynamics, calibrated model parameters were coupled with the bias-corrected rainfall data of Can-ESM5, CESM2, and GFDL-ESM4 models for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) climate scenarios (SSP 245 and SSP 585). The results show upward trends in both projected rainfall and runoff within the drainage area of the Ubolratana reservoir between 2022 and 2061. In summary, the findings of this research may be useful for regional water resources management and strategic planning endeavors.