Water Resources Management Model Research Articles

CONFLICT AND COOPERATION IN SYMMETRIC POTENTIAL GAMES

In this paper we consider a special class of n-person potential games and investigate partial cooperation between a portion of the players that sign a cooperative agreement. Existence results of partial cooperative equilibria are obtained and some possible applications are discussed, particularly a Cournot oligopoly and an international water resources management model.

Uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data

Abstract. Uncertainty in conceptual model structure and in environmental data is of essential interest when dealing with uncertainty in water resources management. To make quantification of uncertainty possible is it necessary to identify and characterise the uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data. This paper discusses a range of available techniques to describe the uncertainty related to geological model structure and scale of support. Literature examples on uncertainty in hydrogeological variables such as saturated hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, effective porosity and dispersivity are given. Field data usually have a spatial and temporal scale of support that is different from the one on which numerical models for water resources management operate. Uncertainty in hydrogeological data variables is characterised and assessed within the methodological framework of the HarmoniRiB classification.

IFTSQP: An Inexact Optimization Model for Water Resources Management under Uncertainty

An interval-fuzzy two-stage quadratic programming (IFTSQP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. The methodincorporates techniques of interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming, and fuzzy quadratic programming within a general optimization framework to tackle multiple uncertainties presented as intervals, fuzzy sets and probability distributions. In the model formulation, multiple control variables are adopted to handle independent uncertainties in the model's right-hand sides; fuzzy quadratic terms are used in the objective function to minimize the variation in satisfaction degrees among the constraints. Moreover, the method can support the analysis of policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties when the promised targets are violated. The developed method is then applied to a case study of water resources management planning. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been obtained. They can help provide bases for identifying desired water-allocation plans with a maximized system benefit and a minimized constraint-violation risk.

An Inexact Two-stage Fuzzy-stochastic Programming Model for Water Resources Management

An inexact two-stage fuzzy-stochastic programming (ITFSP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. Fuzzy sets theory is introduced to represent various punishment policies under different water availability conditions. As an extension of conventional two-stage stochastic programming (TSP) method, two special characteristics of the proposed approach make it unique compared with existing approaches. One is it could handle flexible penalty rates, which are much reasonable for both of the authorities and users, and have seldom been considered in the TSP framework. The other is uncertain information expressed as discrete intervals and probability distribution functions can be effectively reflected in the optimization processes and solutions. After formulating the model, a hypothetical case is employed for demonstrating its applicability under two scenarios, where the inflow is divided into four and eight intervals, respectively. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been obtained. They provide desired allocation patterns with maximized system benefit under two feasibility levels. The solutions present as stable intervals with different risk levels in violating the water demands, and can be used for generating decision alternatives. Comparisons of the solution from the ITFSP with that from the ITSP (inexact two-stage stochastic programming) and TSP approach are also undertaken. It shows that the ITFSP could produce more system benefit than existing methods and deal with flexible penalty policies for better water management and utilization.

Multiperiod Hypergraph Models for Water Systems Optimization

Mathematical models describing water resources systems optimization are characterized by a large number of variables and constraints, which are needed to describe the physical components of the system, its functional ties, and its operating modalities. Some special algebraic structures allow its representation as a pure hypergraph flow problem. The hypergraph structure is derived from a multiperiod network describing the spatial and temporal structure of the physical system. As a crucial feature in modeling functional relations and in describing scenario changes in the system, with the hypergraph approach it is possible to reach a close correspondence between the components of the physical problem and those of the mathematical model. In this paper a water resources management model including a reservoir design problem is studied, and the methodology is tested by the hypergraph simplex algorithm on a real water resources system on the island of Sardinia (Italy) in a extended time horizon. The results obtained show that this technique is very competitive in this kind of problem.

A quantified study method and its application to sustainable management of water resources in arid basins

According to the features of the basins in arid areas, in this paper a quantified study framework of sustainable management of water resources is developed, and the contents include mainly the quantification rules, index system, basic models and quantification method. A quantified study method (M-D method) about sustainable management of water resources is put forward based on the simulation and integrative development degree. In the method, the fuzzy subordinatness description and the multi-rule integration are used to calculate the integrative development degree so as to quantitatively describe the sustainable development degree of economic society; the mathematical simulation is used to quantitatively describe the interactions between water resources, economic society and ecosystems so as to lay a foundation for quantitatively giving expression to the development situation of economic society related to the management of water resources; based on the organic combination of these two, quantification rules and other constraint conditions, a quantified model of water resources management is developed. The M-D method is applied to developing a scientific scheme of water resources management in the Bosten Lake Basin, Xinjiang, China.

ENSO와 한국의 수문변량들간의 계절적 관계 분석

최근 들어 세계의 연중 기후 변화에 주된 요인으로써 엘니뇨와 같은 현상이 매우 잦아졌다. 많은 기상수문학자들이 강수와 유량에 대한 엘니뇨 남방진동의 영향에 대해 연구하고 있지만, 수문변량들은 큰 지역적 변동을 갖고 있기 때문에 결정적인 인과관계를 찾아내는데 있어서 많은 어려움이 있다. 본 연구에서는 엘니뇨-남방진동과 한국에서의 수문변량들 간의 계절석 관계를 고찰하였다. 엘니뇨-난방진동을 정량적으로 표현해 주는 지수로써 남방진동지수를 사용하였고, 월강수량 자료, 월평균기온 자료 그리고 댐의 월유입량 자료를 표준정규분포를 가지는 표준정규지수로 변환하여 사용하였다. 계절적 관계를 파악하기 위해 난방진동지수와 수문변량의 월 자료는 봄 (3월-5월), 여름(6윌-8월), 가을(9월-11월) 그리고 겨울 (12윌-2월)로 분류되었다. ENSO episode에 대한 수문변량들의 조건부 초과확률과 분포형태를 바탕으로 분석을 수행한 결과 전반적으로 Warm ENSO episode의 경우 강수량 증가와 기온 상승과 관련이 있고, Cold ENSO episode의 경우 강수량 감소와 기온 하강과 관계가 있다. 그러나 일부 지역에서는 이러한 전반적인 결과와 상이한 결과가 나타나기도 하였다. Climatic abnormal phenomena involving El Nino and La Nina have been frequently reported in recent decades. The interannual climate variability represented by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is sometimes investigated to account for the climatic abnormal phenomena around the world. Although many hydroclimatologists have studied the impact of ENSO on regional precipitation and streamflow, however, there are still many difficulties in finding the dominant causal relationship between them. This relationship is very useful in making hydrological forecasting models for water resources management. In this study, the seasonal relationships between ENSO and hydrologic variables were investigated in Korea. As an ENSO indicator, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was used. Monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, and monthly dam inflow data were used after being transformed to the standardized normal index. Seasonal relationships between ENSO and hydrologic variables were investigated based on the exceedance probability and distribution of hydrologic variables conditioned on the ENSO episode. The results from the analysis of this study showed that the warm ENSO episode affects increases in precipitation and temperature, and the cold ENSO episode is related with decreases in precipitation and temperature in Korea. However, in some regions, the local relationships do not correspond with the general seasonal relationship.

Influence of climate variation on seasonal precipitation in the Colorado River Basin

This study analyzed the influence of large-scale climate pattern on precipitation in the Colorado River Basin. Large-scale climatic oscillations, like ENSO, PDO, NAO, and the global warming trend are associated with regional hydrologic variation. Ten types of climate indices were gathered and analyzed to investigate their influence on seasonal precipitation variation in the basin based on a linear correlation analysis and an influence index analysis. The influence index was developed in this study to measure the effect of climate variation on the seasonal precipitation in the basin. The statistical evidence achieved in this study confirms that the Colorado River Basin is subjected to the phase of climate variation. The strength of the seasonal response of precipitation to the climate variation varies in different localities in the basin. The methods of analysis used in this study were proposed in the hope that progress in understanding and modeling dynamic climatic systems can result in developing a valuable long-term forecasting model for water resources management.

A quantitative water resource planning and management model for an industrial park level

This paper introduces an integrated water management model at the industrial park level. It suggests four approaches to water management: first, direct water reuse among users; second, water reuse among users by blending with freshwater; third, water reuse between users and a wastewater treatment plant; and fourth, groundwater recharge by reclaimed wastewater or other feasible applications in order to optimize the overall water efficiency. The model results in a comprehensive management methodology for optimizing water resources within an industrial park, seeking potential water reuse among industries, and incorporating the size and cost of reclaimed wastewater delivery systems. A case study is employed to test the model’s feasibility. An economic analysis of the optimized water use network is also carried out, showing the potential water and cost savings.

A groundwater flow model for water resources management in the Ismarida plain, North Greece

This paper presents the development of a regional flow simulation model of the stream–aquifer system of Ismarida plain, northeastern Greece. It quantifies the water budget for this aquifer system and describes the components of groundwater and the characteristics of this system on the basis of results of a 3-year field study. The semiconfined aquifer system of Ismarida Lake plain consists of unconsolidated deltaic clastic sediments, is hydraulically connected with Vosvozis River, and covers an area of 46.75 km2. The annual precipitation ranges in the study area from 270 to 876 mm. Eighty-seven irrigation wells are densely located and have been widely used for agricultural development. Groundwater flow in this aquifer was simulated with MODFLOW. Model calibration was done with observed water levels, and match was excellent. To evaluate the impacts of the current pumping schedule and propose solutions, four management scenarios were formulated and tested with the model. Based on model results, the simulated groundwater budget indicates that there must be approximately 33% decrease of withdrawals to stop the dramatic decline of groundwater levels. The application of these scenarios shows that aquifer discharge to the nearby river would be very low after a 20-year period.

Predictive error analysis for a water resource management model

In calibrating a model, a set of parameters is assigned to the model which will be employed for the making of all future predictions. If these parameters are estimated through solution of an inverse problem, formulated to be property posed through either pre-calibration or mathematical regularisation, then solution of this inverse problem will, of necessity, lead to a simplified parameter set that omits the details of reality, while still fitting historical data acceptably well Furthermore, estimates of parameters so obtained will be contaminated by measurement noise. Both of these phenomena will lead to errors in predictions made by the model, with the potential for error increasing with the hydraulic property detail on which the prediction depends. Integrity of model usage demands that model predictions be accompanied by some estimate of the possible errors associated with them. The present paper applies theory developed in a previous work to the analysis of predictive error associated with a real world, water resource management model. The analysis offers many challenges, including the fact that the model is a complex one that was partly calibrated by hand. Nevertheless, it is typical of models which are commonly employed as the basis for the making of important decisions, and for which such an analysis must be made. The potential errors associated with point-based and averaged water level and creek inflow predictions are examined, together with the dependence of these errors on the amount of averaging involved. Error associated with predictions made by the existing model are compared with optimized error variances that could have been obtained had calibration been undertaken in such a way as to minimize predictive error variance. The contributions by different parameter types to the overall error variance of selected predictions are also examined. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coupling upland watershed and downstream waterbody hydrodynamic and water quality models (SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2) for better water resources management in complex river basins

Effective water resources management programs have always incorporated detailed analyses of hydrological and water quality processes in the upland watershed and downstream waterbody. We have integrated two powerful hydrological and water quality models (SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2) to simulate the combined processes of water quantity and quality both in the upland watershed and downstream waterbody. Whereas the SWAT model outputs water quality variables in its entirety, the CE-QUAL-W2 model requires inputs in various pools of organic matter contents. An intermediate program was developed to extract outputs from SWAT at required subbasin and reach outlets and converts them into acceptable CE-QUAL-W2 inputs. The CE-QUAL-W2 model was later calibrated for various hydrodynamic and water quality simulations in the Cedar Creek Reservoir, TX, USA. The results indicate that the two models are compatible and can be used to assess and manage water resources in complex watersheds comprised of upland watershed and downstream waterbodies.

Adaptation strategies to global change for water resources management in the Spree river Catchment, Germany

Computer models for long‐term simulations of water resources management strategies are used in the analysis of water availability problems in river basins. Such models can also be used for the examination of global change impacts, which are characterised by changed natural water yield and water demand due to climate and socio‐economic changes. Already existing water quantity and water quality problems in the catchments of the river Spree and the river Schwarze Elster were analysed in the context of global change. The main water quantity issues are caused by the future development of the mining industry and climate change. The effects of these future developments were analysed using the long‐term water resources management model WBalMo. Subsequently, adaptation strategies were defined in co‐operation with the relevant stakeholders and their effects analysed with the same model. The results show that continuation of the existing water resources management strategy will not be able to compensate for the impacts of global change. However, a changed management strategy might compensate the impacts for some users.

Capturing the complexity of water uses and water users within a multi-agent framework

Due to the hydrological and socio-economic complexity of water use within river basins and even sub-basins, it is a considerable challenge to manage water resources in an efficient, equitable and sustainable way. This paper shows that multi-agent simulation (MAS) is a promising approach to better understand the complexity of water uses and water users within sub-basins. This approach is especially suitable to take the collective action into account when simulating the outcome of technical innovation and policy change. A case study from Chile is used as an example to demonstrate the potential of the MAS framework. Chile has played a pioneering role in water policy reform by privatizing water rights and promoting trade in such rights, devolving irrigation management authority to user groups, and privatizing the provision of irrigation infrastructure. The paper describes the different components of a MAS model developed for four micro-watersheds in the Maule river basin. Preliminary results of simulation experiments are presented, which show the impacts of technical change and of informal rental markets on household income and water use efficiency. The paper also discusses how the collective action problems in water markets and in small-scale and large-scale infrastructure provision can be captured by the MAS model. To promote the use of the MAS approach for planning purposes, a collaborative research and learning framework has been established, with a recently created multi-stakeholder platform at the regional level (Comision Regional de Recursos Hidricos) as the major partner. Finally, the paper discusses the potentials of using MAS models for water resources management, such as increasing transparency as an aspect of good governance. The challenges, for example the need to build trust in the model, are discussed as well.

An Artificial Neural Network model for mountainous water-resources management: The case of Cyprus mountainous watersheds

This is a preliminary attempt towards a wider use of Artificial Neural Networks in the management of mountainous water supplies. It proposes a model to be used effectively in the estimation of the average annual water supply, in each mountainous watershed of Cyprus. This is really a crucial task, especially during the long dry summer months of the island. On the other hand the evaluation of the potential torrential risk due to high volume of water flow in the winter season is also very important. Data (from 1965–1993) from 78 measuring stations located in the 70 distinct watersheds of Cyprus were used. This data volume was divided in the training subset comprising of 60 cases and in the testing subset containing 18 cases. The input parameters are the area of the watershed, the average annual and the average monthly rain-height, the altitude and the slope in the location of the measuring station. Consequently three structural and two dynamic factors are considered. After several and extended training-testing efforts a Modular Artificial Neural Network was determined to be the optimal one.

Integrated water resource management model for process industry in Lithuania

Water resource management has become an important operational and environmental issue. The increasing costs of dependable water supplies and wastewater disposal have increased the economic incentive for implementing technologies that are more environmentally friendly, and that can ensure efficient use of natural resources. A structured “integrated water resources management,” (IWRM) model for water management is presented as a useful tool for research into complex water using production systems in industrial companies. The step-by-step procedure and the consistent relationships between the diagram types allow straightforward implementation of water saving projects. By performing various case studies, it became clear that the IWRM model is applicable to various types of water using industrial companies. Therefore, wastewater reclamation and reuse are effective procedures for more sustainable industrial development programs.

WEAP21—A Demand-, Priority-, and Preference-Driven Water Planning Model

The Water Evaluation and Planning Version 21 (WEAP21) Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) model seamlessly integrates water supplies generated through watershed-scale hydrologic processes with a water management model driven by water demands and environmental requirements and is governed by the natural watershed and physical network of reservoirs, canals, and diversions. This version (WEAP21) extends the previous WEAP model by introducing the concept of demand priorities and supply preferences, which are used in a linear programming heuristic to solve the water allocation problem as an alternative to multi-criteria weighting or rule-based logic approaches. WEAP21 introduces a transparent set of model objects and procedures that can be used to analyze a full range of issues faced by water planners through a scenario-based approach. These issues include climate variability and change, watershed condition, anticipated demands, ecosystem needs, the regulatory environment, operational objectives, and available infrastructure.

WEAP21—A Demand-, Priority-, and Preference-Driven Water Planning Model

Potential conflicts arising from competing demands of complex water resource systems require a holistic approach to address the tradeoff landscape inherent in freshwater ecosystem service evaluation. The Water Evaluation and Planning model version 21 (WEAP21) is a comprehensive integrated water resource management (IWRM) model that can aid in the evaluation of ecosystem services by integrating natural watershed processes with socio-economic elements that include the infrastructure and institutions that govern the allocation of available freshwater supplies. The bio-physical and socioeconomic components of Battle Creek and Cow Creek, two tributaries of the Sacramento River of Northern California, USA, were used to illustrate how a new hydrologic sub-module in WEAP21 can be used in conjunction with an imbedded water allocation algorithm to simulate the hydrologic response of the watersheds and aid in evaluating freshwater ecosystem service tradeoffs under alternative scenarios.

An interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, an interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic linear programming (IMSLP) method has been developed for water resources decision making under uncertainty. The IMSLP is a hybrid methodology of inexact optimization and multi-stage stochastic programming. It has three major advantages in comparison to the other optimization techniques. Firstly, it extends upon the existing multi-stage stochastic programming method by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Secondly, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. Thirdly, it cannot only handle uncertainties through constructing a set of scenarios that is representative for the universe of possible outcomes, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over the planning horizon. The developed IMSLP method is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. The results are helpful for water resources managers in not only making decisions of water allocation but also gaining insight into the tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives.

Advances in the application of the SWAT model for water resources management

AbstractDevelopments in computer technology have revolutionized the study of hydrologic systems and water resources management. Several computer‐based hydrologic/water quality models have been developed for applications in hydrologic modelling and water resources studies. Distributed parameter models, necessary for basin‐scale studies, have large input data requirements. Geographic information systems (GIS) and model–GIS interfaces aid the efficient creation of input data files required by such models. One such model available for the water resources professional is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a distributed parameter model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture. This paper describes some recent advances made in the application of SWAT and the SWAT–GIS interface for water resources management. Four case studies are presented. The Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS) project used SWAT to conduct a national‐scale analysis of the effect of management scenarios on water quantity and quality. Integration of the SWAT model with rainfall data available from the WSR‐88D radar network helps us to incorporate the spatial variability of rainfall into the modelling process. This study demonstrates the usefulness of radar rainfall data in distributed hydrologic studies and the potential of SWAT for application in flood analysis and prediction. A hydrologic modelling study of the Sondu river basin in Kenya using SWAT indicates the potential for application of the model in African watersheds and points to the need for development of better model input data sets in Africa, which are critical for detailed water resources studies. The application of SWAT for water quality analysis in the Bosque river basin, Texas demonstrates the strength of the model for analysing different management scenarios to minimize point and non‐point pollution, and its potential for application in total maximum daily load (TMDL) studies. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.