Water Resource Conflicts Research Articles

Uncharted water conflicts ahead: mapping the scenario space for Germany in the year 2050

IntroductionIn recent years, conflicts surrounding the use, distribution, and governance of surface water and groundwater in Germany have gained prominence in the media, on the political agenda, and in research. Increasing effects of climate change, such as heatwaves and drought but also extreme rain events and flooding, are considered to become more prominent and pressing in the future by different societal actors. However, it remains highly uncertain if and what type of conflicts related to water quantity Germany might actually face in the future (and how they will be framed). This paper addresses one dimension of this uncertainty—namely the future context uncertainty of possible resource and water governance conflicts. Our research contributes to an improved understanding of the uncertainty concerning future climatic, natural, land use related, political, economic, and other societal contexts that could impact water conflicts.MethodWe ask: What are possible coherent context scenarios for Germany in the year 2050, and how are they expected to influence future water conflicts? In an expert-based process, we apply a qualitative and systematic method of systems analysis, cross-impact balances (CIB). With CIB, we build internally consistent scenarios of possible futures and map the future scenario space.Results and discussionDiversity mapping with a new CIB web application of the ScenarioWizard reveals that the scenario space is rather large and diverse. The identified scenario space of n = 355 internally consistent scenarios spans four most diverse scenarios “Polycrisis,” “Economy and agriculture in crisis,” “Growth through adaptation to climate change,” and “Sustainable transformation.” Depending on the development of future contexts, the risk for future water resource and governance conflicts may unfold in various ways. We conclude that our scenario analysis provides a useful base for research and practice to address the context uncertainty of water conflicts in Germany. Our results can be used for risk assessment, to define societal framework assumptions for societal-hydrological modeling, and to develop robust and adaptive strategies and policies.

Ecoregion-Based Environment Policy to Resolve Water Resource Conflicts at the Surakarta Ex-Residency

Introduction: This research studies the severe case of water resource conflicts at the Surakarta Ex-Residency, Indonesia. The researchers were interested in studying this case as they wanted to provide a solution to the water resource conflicts that happened at the Surakarta Ex-Residency through an eco-region-based environmental policy principle. This research aims: (1) To describe the water resource conflicts at the Surakarta ex-Residency, Central Java, Indonesia, (2) To identify the governmental policies on water resource management that cause water resource conflicts, and (3) To formulate ecoregion-based water resource management policy model to resolve water resource conflicts. Methods: This was socio-legal research with doctrinal and non-doctrinal approaches. Results: The research results show that the water resource conflicts between the society and the Municipal Waterworks that have control over the water resources happened due to policies that allowed water management for commercial interests. Conflicts also happened between Regional Governments, as a result of an inaccurate understanding of regional autonomy. This leads to the formulation of water resource management policies that are merely based on regional egos. Discussion: The Regional Government's policies on water resource management contribute to the emergence of water resource conflicts. This is because such policies are directed to various orientation forms, namely economic orientation, privatization, and the unsynchronized water resource management regulations between Regional Governments. The water resource conflict resolution policy with the ecoregional approach is carried out through a mutual agreement between Regional Governments, that will be followed up by each of those Regional Governments. Conclusion: The legitimization is in the form of Regional Regulations that regulate the imposition of responsibilities as well as the rights on the water resource management.

Graph model for conflict resolution with hybrid information based on prospect theory and PROMETHEE method and its application in water resources conflict

Water resources are crucial for national economic growth, but industrial development has led to severe pollution, sparking conflicts between government and enterprises over their responsibilities. Addressing these water pollution conflicts is urgent. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) offers a simple and logical approach to analyzing such conflicts with minimal data. However, current models overlook decision makers’ (DMs) heterogeneity, bounded rationality, and the theoretical foundation for preference ranking. To overcome these limitations, this study integrates hybrid information to account for DMs’ diverse knowledge and experience. Prospect theory is employed to capture DMs’ bounded rationality, enhancing the accuracy of decision outcomes. The PROMETHEE method is introduced for preference ranking during GMCR modeling, guided by multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) theory. Additionally, the four basic stability concepts are redefined and proven, expanding GMCR’s theoretical applications. Finally, a case study of the Huangshui River water conflict and the comparative analysis demonstrate the model’s validity and advantages.

The conflict between Rights of Nature and mining in Ecuador: Implications of the Los Cedros Cloud Forest case for biodiversity conservation

Abstract Global emergence of Rights of Nature (RoN) has gained momentum since Ecuador became the first country to constitutionally recognize it in 2008. The shift from perceiving nature as an object, to granting it legal subjecthood, can revolutionize protection of ecological systems. In 2021, Ecuador's Constitutional Court issued a landmark ruling, halting mining in the Los Cedros Protected Forest. Three pillars form the basis for legal protection of Los Cedros: (i) the right to timely, Free Prior Informed Environmental Consultation, (ii) application of the Precautionary Principle in risk to RoN, and (iii) the Right to Water. We analyse the Court ruling to identify legal frameworks applied then map and rank mining risk to other protected forests, Indigenous territories, unprotected native ecosystems, biodiversity and areas of water resource conflict to determine potential scale of conflict between mining and RoN. 7813 mining concessions of 22,812km2 overlay 9.2% of Ecuadorian mainland, 2323 concessions (29.7%) overlap 16,081km2 of protected forest (4781 km2, 20%), Indigenous territory (6473 km2, 8%) and native vegetation outside protected areas and Indigenous territories (13,390 km2, 9%). With 80% of their protected forests at risk from large‐scale mining, the most impacted Indigenous communities are the Shuar. Synthesis and applications: The Los Cedros legal case in Ecuador sets a precedent for using RoN to challenge mining in 4781 km2 of similar Protected Forest, with potential to protect an additional 16,081 km2 of Indigenous lands and biologically important ecosystems. However, lack of biological data for these areas will necessitate extensive data collection, possibly through community‐empowering citizen science. Our study emphasizes the urgent need to integrate indigenous and traditional ecological knowledge (ITEK), law and ecology. We propose a new transdisciplinary field of ‘ecological forensics’ to support nature protection within the RoN framework. Our research also identifies areas where RoN could effectively protect nature and that are likely to be of high investment risk for the mining industry. The final recommendation is to reconsider mining concessions in Ecuador, especially in ecologically sensitive areas, Indigenous territories, high biodiversity areas, and regions with water resource conflicts, to maintain ecological integrity and social harmony. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Evaluation of Subseasonal Precipitation Simulations for the Sao Francisco River Basin, Brazil

Water conflicts have been a significant issue in Brazil, especially in the Sao Francisco River basin. Subseasonal forecasts, up to a 60-day forecast range, can provide information to support decision-makers in managing water resources in the river basin, especially before drought events. This report aims to evaluate 5-year mean subseasonal simulations generated by the Eta regional model for the period from 2011 to 2016 and assess the usefulness of this information to support decision-making in water resource conflicts in the Sao Francisco River basin. The capability of the Eta model to reproduce the drought events that occurred between the years 2011 and 2016 was compared against the Climate Prediction Center Morphing (CMORPH) precipitation data. Two sets of 60-day simulations were produced: one started in September (SO) and the other in January (JF) of each year. These months were chosen to evaluate the model’s capability to reproduce the onset and the middle of the rainy seasons in central Brazil, where the upper Sao Francisco River is located. The SO simulations reproduced the observed spatial distribution of precipitation but underestimated the amounts. Precipitation errors exhibited large variability across the subbasins. The JF simulations also reproduced the observed precipitation distribution but overestimated it in the upper and lower subbasins. The JF simulations better captured the interannual variability in precipitation. The 60-day simulations were discretized into six 10-day accumulations to assess the intramonthly variability. They showed that the simulations captured the onset of the rainy season and the small periods of rainy months that occurred in these severe drought years. This research is a critical step to indicate subbasins where the model simulation needs to be improved and provide initial information to support water allocation in the region.

STAKEHOLDER-INVOLVEMENT IN WATER RESOURCE RELATED CONFLICT MANAGEMENT IN LAKE TURKANA BASIN OF KENYA

Lake Turkana is the largest permanent desert lake in the world and a crucial water source in Turkana County, sustaining thousands of livelihoods. The ethnic groups are primarily nomadic pastoralists. The region is heavily prone to perennial water resources related conflict resulting into perennial displacement of human beings and animals. Prior studies established that perennial resource conflict is fuelled by stakeholders. The study aimed to determine stakeholders' participation in managing water resource conflict in Kenya's Lake Turkana Basin. A descriptive research design anchored on negotiation theory was applied. A sample of 36 respondents were contacted through a structured questionnaire, Key Informant Interview (KII) schedule, observation guide and Focused Group Discussions (FGDs). The study revealed limited stakeholder exposure to conflict management and biased participation. The study concluded that stakeholder involvement and poor stakeholder identification bred water resource related conflict. In matters conflict management, the under-developed road structures and poor communication facilities make it difficult to mobilize people in the vast lake basin The study recommends broader stakeholder inclusion in future conflict management, applying Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) methods such as enhanced traditional dispute resolution mechanism, mediation and negotiation.

Multi-Objective Optimal Scheduling of Generalized Water Resources Based on an Inter-Basin Water Transfer Project

For inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) projects, the conflict between social, economic, and ecological objectives makes water allocation processes more complex. Specific to the problem of water resource conflict in IBWT projects, we established an optimal allocation model of generalized (conventional) water resources (G (C) model) to demonstrate the advantages of the G model. The improved multi-objective cuckoo optimization algorithm (IMOCS) was applied to search the Pareto frontiers of the two models under normal, dry, and extremely dry conditions. The optimal allocation scheme set of generalized (conventional) water resources (G (C) scheme set) consists of ten Pareto optimal solutions with the minimum water shortage selected from the Pareto optimal solutions of the G (C) model. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) combined with criteria importance using the inter-criteria correlation (CRITIC) method was used to assign weights of evaluation indexes in the evaluation index system. The non-negative matrix method was employed to evaluate the G (C) scheme set to determine the best G (C) scheme for the Jiangsu section of the South-to-North Water Transfer (J-SNWT) Project. The results show that (1) the Pareto frontier of the G model is better than that of the C model, and (2) the best G scheme shows better index values compared to the best C scheme. The total water shortages are reduced by 254.2 million m3 and 827.9 million m3 under the dry condition, respectively, and the water losses are reduced by 145.1 million m3 and 141.1 million m3 under the extremely dry condition, respectively. These findings could not only provide J-SNWT Project managers with guidelines for water allocation under normal, dry, and extremely dry conditions but also demonstrate that the G model could achieve better water-allocation benefits than the C model for inter-basin water transfer projects.

Dryland Water Resource Conservation and Conflict Management in Loisukut Sub-catchment in Laikipia North Sub-country, Kenya

The study examines access to water, use and management of water resources and conflicts in the Loisukut sub-catchment in Laikipia North Sub-Country. Additionally, the study provides information on grassroots initiatives that seek to improve and ensure equitable management of water resources by establishing connections with significant stakeholders. The study is supported by information acquired through the distribution of a questionnaire to various stakeholders, water users' groups, and communities. The study's conclusions indicate a relationship between water availability, consumption, and management that has a significant impact on water conflicts. The discrepancies in access to water are due to ineffective water management initiatives. The study recommends watershed conservation and diversifying pastoralists' economic opportunities will have positive effects on the environment, economy and society.

A novel grey-inverse graph model for conflict resolution approach for resolving water resources conflicts in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

With the continuous urbanization and industrialization in recent years, different stakeholders in the same basin meet local water needs and compete for water resources, which hinders economic development and ecological protection of the basin. Different stakeholders conceal information about their own strategies and preferences to protect their vested interests, making it difficult for third-party regulators to develop optimal operational policies for the joint use of water resources in the basin. Therefore, the research objective of this study is to propose a new grey inverse Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (grey inverse GMCR), and apply the new method to the complex problem of water allocation and environmental governance with the Poyang Lake basin conflict. The new GMCR model proposed in this study can solve the cost minimization problem of a third-party mediator that manipulates decision makers (DMs)’ grey preferences to achieve desired outcomes. The results of the equilibrium analysis show that upstream areas' preferences mainly affect the result of water resource conflicts in the PLB, and establishing a scientific mechanism to compensate the water resources protection cost borne by the upstream areas would be a cost-effective way to realize the sustainable development of the basin as a whole.

Insight into the pollution characteristics of road and roof runoff in Changsha, China

Non-point source pollution from rainwater runoff presents a serious challenge for urban water management in many cities undergoing urbanization and experiencing climate change. To alleviate water resource conflicts in Changsha, China, this study comprehensively evaluated the pollution characteristics and first flush effect (FFE) of runoff from asphalt roads and colored steel plate roofs under seven rainfall events in April-May 2022. The runoff was collected and purified using bioretention ponds. The results showed that the peak runoff pollutant concentrations occurred within the first 20min of runoff generation and then decreased to relatively stable levels, with maximum total suspended solids (TSS) concentration and chemical oxygen demand (CODCr) reaching 873.5 and 207.32mg/L, respectively, for road runoff and 162 and 73.31mg/L for roof runoff, respectively. The main pollutants were TSS and CODCr, followed by ammonia nitrogen (NH4+-N), nitrate nitrogen (NO3--N), total phosphorus (TP), and nitrite nitrogen (NO2--N). Concentrations of pollutants and FFE for roof runoff were lower than those for road runoff. Road runoff had a more obvious FFE for TP and NH4+-N, whereas the roof runoff showed the presence of TP and NO3--N. An important implication is that treating the first 30% of surface runoff from rainfall events with long antecedent dry days or high rainfall amounts is necessary to improve water quality before discharge or utilization. The study also found that road and roof runoff, after treatment with bioretention ponds, exhibit good water quality, thus, allowing their use as reclaimed water or for miscellaneous purposes in urban areas. Overall, this study provides useful information for designing management measures to mitigate runoff pollution and reuse in Changsha.

Hydrological Response to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Dry–Warm Valley of the Upper Yangtze River

The hydrological process in the dry–warm valley of the mountainous area of southwestern China has unique characteristics and has attracted scientific attention worldwide. Given that this is an area with fragile ecosystems and intensive water resource conflicts in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, a systematic identification of its hydrological responses to climate and land use variations needs to be performed. In this study, MIKE SHE was employed and calibrated for the Anning River Basin in the dry–warm valley. Subsequently, a deep learning neural network model of the long short-term memory (LSTM) and a traditional multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) method were used for an ensemble of 31 global climate models (GCMs) for climate projection. The cellular automata–Markov model was implemented to project the spatial pattern of land use considering climatic, social, and economic conditions. Four sets of climate projections and three sets of land use projections were generated and fed into the MIKE SHE to project hydrologic responses from 2021 to 2050. For the calibration and first validation periods of the daily simulation, the coefficients of determination ( R ) were 0.85 and 0.87 and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values were 0.72 and 0.73, respectively. The advanced LSTM performed better than the traditional MMEM method for daily temperature and monthly precipitation. The average monthly temperature projection under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) was expected to be slightly higher than that under RCP4.5; this is contrary to the average monthly precipitation from June to October. The variations in streamflow and actual evapotranspiration (ET) were both more sensitive to climate change than to land use change. There was no significant relationship between the variations in streamflow and the ET in the study area. This work could provide general variation conditions and a range of hydrologic responses to complex and changing environments, thereby assisting with stochastic uncertainty and optimizing water resource management in critical regions.

The graph model for composite decision makers and its application to a water resource conflict

To analyze a strategic conflict involving composite decision makers (CDMs), this paper uses the methodology of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). A CDM is a group of individuals with differing decision characteristics – conservative or aggressive – any one of whom can make a decision on behalf of the group. In our model, a conservative CDM makes moves that take into account the interests of all group members, aiming to protect each one from possible sanctions; an aggressive CDM gives priority to some individuals that will benefit and does not necessarily consider the interests of other group members when making moves. Based on these different decision characteristics, two versions of hesitant fuzzy stability definitions, indexed I and II, are proposed. To facilitate the stability analysis of the graph model with multiple decision makers (DMs), including at least one CDM, a matrix-based method called Matrix Representation for Hesitant Fuzzy Stability is developed to identify the equilibria of the model, or states that are stable for all DMs and are therefore possible resolutions of the conflict. A water resource conflict in the Lancang-Mekong River basin is utilized to demonstrate the system. The results reveal how the decision characteristics of CDMs can influence the equilibria of a conflict.

Conceptualising eco-violence: moving beyond the multiple labelling of water and agricultural resource conflicts in the Sahel

The conflict over water and agricultural resources within the Sahel of Africa has led to the destruction of lives, property and nature for decades. The extant practice is to label these conflicts with multiple names and conceptualise them as single-issue events. This article illustrates this practice further and highlights some issues associated with such approaches. Existing terms for these conflicts in Africa’s Sahel region are primarily linked to people’s occupations and ethnic identities, distracting efforts to gain a deeper understanding. This view obscures the broad dimensions of these struggles among those competing for water and agricultural resources. Thus, this paper remedies the conceptual gaps by recommending ‘eco-violence’ as an umbrella term for these conflicts and foregrounding the emerging trends of eco-violence within the Sahel region. By referring to these conflicts as eco-violence, we can foster a more inclusive perspective that incorporates social and environmental injustices and political failures as factors related to these conflicts.

Effects of brackish water irrigation on grain quality characteristics and yield of winter wheat

Brackish water resource is widely distributed in the North China Plain, which has not been effectively utilized. Using brackish water for irrigation can alleviate water resource conflict in the well-irrigated area and solve the problem of groundwater over-exploitation of the North China Plain. A long-term experiment (since 2006) was conducted to investigate the effects of brackish water irrigation on the quality and yield of winter wheat in the North China Plain. There were five salinity degrees of irrigation water, i.e. 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 g·L-1, respectively. The results showed that higher salinity degree of irrigation water (4-8 g·L-1) significantly increased water absorption, development time, sedimentation, wet gluten content, and protein content, but decreased the stabilization time, flour yield, and gluten index. There was no significant difference between the treatments of 1 g·L-1 and 2 g·L-1 on grain yield and yield components, but the treatment of 2 g·L-1 significantly improved grain quality, including water absorption, development time, sedimentation, wet gluten, and protein content. Higher salinity degree of irrigation water (4-8 g·L-1) treatments significantly decreased spike number (44.0%-60.7%) and grain yield (35.6%-64.7%), compared with 1 g·L-1 treatment. Results of principal component analysis showed that 2 g·L-1 treatment had the best overall effect with no significant decrease in grain yield and quality of grain. This study could provide theoretical basis and technical support for use of brackish water in the North China Plain.

Transboundary Water Resources Conflict Analysis Using Graph Model for Conflict Resolution: A Case Study—Harirud River

One of the most important environmental issues today is the water crisis and the ensuing security challenges. Of these, transboundary waters pose the most significant security challenges. Resolving these conflicts and agreements over transboundary waters has always faced a variety of challenges, making it difficult to reach a mutually agreed solution. One of the transboundary water conflicts that have been exacerbating in recent years is the conflict between Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan over the use of the Harirud river water resources. The present paper aims to analyze, using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), a game theory model, the conflict between the three countries regarding the utilization of the water resources of the border river, Harirud. To this purpose, first, the current state of the conflict was investigated. Then, each of the three countries’ possible options and preferences was defined according to the past and present state of the conflict as well as the possible states. By defining the permissible movements and priorities of each decision maker, the equilibrium of the conflict was obtained. Next, four scenarios were defined, the equilibria were extracted in each scenario, and the results were interpreted. The implementation of the GMCR model algorithm regarding the Harirud water conflict between the three countries indicated that the current state is the most likely outcome of the conflict as none of the parties involved, given their preferences, and is motivated or able to change their strategy to help the conflict to a more favorable state.

Stakeholders’ interactions in managing water resources conflicts: a case of Lake Naivasha, Kenya

Abstract Recent years have seen unprecedented pressure from numerous water stakeholders with different interests in Lake Naivasha basin, the only freshwater lake in the Great Rift Valley of Kenya. The pressure on this water resource results in high competition over access to water source, unsustainable resources management practices, poor water quality, and emergence of conflicts between institutions and its users. Presently, there is a knowledge gap and paucity of information on water resources stakeholders’ interactions in Lake Naivasha basin. This study, therefore, analyses the ways resource stakeholders interact and play in the conflict dynamic, and ultimately propose a better water resource use and management approaches. Drawing on field assessments, individual interviews, focus group discussion, and secondary literature reviews, this paper illustrates how both local, national and multi-national stakeholders interact and contribute to water resources conflicts. Results suggest unclear county and national institutional structures, fragmented land use activities and ownership, a feeling of marginalization by the local population contributing to resource-based conflict within the lake basin. A comprehensive policy framework and enforcement of existing regulations will ensure there is sustainable water access, reduce conflicts and enhance sustainable water resource governance and use of the lake.

Allocation of allowable pollution load by using the bankruptcy solution rules

Abstract Bankruptcy solution methods are widely used and efficient methods for conflict resolution which attract considerable attention in the area of solving conflicts related to water resources. However, most of the related studies have focused on the use of bankruptcy solution methods in solving quantitative water resources conflicts. In this study, four bankruptcy solution rules including proportional (PRO), constrained equal awards (CEA), constrained equal losses (CEL), and Talmud (TAL) rules were used to develop four models to allocate the allowable pollution loads to pollution sources. One of the novel aspects of the current study is to consider the amount of each flow discharge in addition to the pollution concentration of each pollution source. Evaluation of performances of the selected bankruptcy solution rules in a reach of Karun River in Iran showed that the CEA-based model can be considered as the most desirable option for small pollution sources whereas the CEL-based model seems to be the most appropriate option for large pollution sources. The models based on PRO and TAL rules provide results between those of CEA and CEL rules which can be considered as more probable options to reach agreement on between small and large pollution sources.

Hybrid optimization model for conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources in water deficit irrigation system.

The increasing demand for food production with limited available water resources poses a threat to agricultural activities. Conventional optimization algorithms increase the processing stage and perform in the space allocated from user. Therefore, the proposed work was used to design better performance results. The conjunctive allocation of water resources maximizes the net benefit of farmers. In this study, the novel hybrid optimization model developed is the first of its kind and was designed to resolve the sharing of water resource conflict among different reaches based on a genetic algorithm (GA), bacterial foraging optimization (BFO) and ant colony optimization (ACO) to maximize the net benefit of the water deficit in Sathanur reservoir command. The GA-based optimization model considered crop-related physical and economic parameters to derive optimal cropping patterns for three different conjunctive use policies and further allocation of surface and groundwater for different crops are enhanced with the BFO. The allocation of surface and groundwater for the head, middle and tail reaches obtained from the BFO is considered as an input to the ACO as a guiding mechanism to attain an optimal cropping pattern. Comparing the average productivity values, policy 3 (3.665 Rs/m3) has better values relating to policy 1 (3.662 Rs/m3) and policy 2 (3.440 Rs/m3). Thus, the developed novel hybrid optimization model (GA-BFO-ACO) is very promising for enhancing farmer's net income and can be replicated in other irrigated regions to overcome chronic water problems. The productivity value of policy 3 was 6.54% greater than that of policy 2, whereas that of policy 1 was 6.45% greater. Overall, the comparison shows that the better performance analysis of various optimization was done successfully.

Understanding Water Use Conflicts to Advance Collaborative Planning: Lessons Learned from Lake Diefenbaker, Canada

Conflicts around the multi-purpose water uses of Lake Diefenbaker (LD) in Saskatchewan, Canada need to be addressed to meet rapidly expanding water demands in the arid Canadian prairie region. This study explores these conflicts to advance collaborative planning as a means for improving the current water governance and management of this lake. Qualitative methodology that employed a wide participatory approach was used to collect focus group data from 92 individuals, who formed a community of water users. Results indicate that the community of water users is unified in wanting to maintain water quality and quantity, preserving the lake’s aesthetics, and reducing water source vulnerability. Results also show these users are faced with water resource conflicts resulting from lack of coherence of regulatory instruments in the current governance regime, and acceptable management procedures of both consumptive and contemporary water uses that are interlinked in seven areas of: irrigation, industrial, and recreational water uses; reservoir water level for flood control and hydroelectricity production; wastewater and lagoon management; fish farm operations; and regional water development projects. As a means of advancing collaborative planning, improvements in water allocation and regulatory instruments could be made to dissipate consumptive use conflicts and fill the under-regulation void that exists for contemporary water uses. Additionally, a comprehensive LD water use master plan, as a shared vision to improve participation in governance, could be developed to direct the water uses that have emerged over time. This study suggests that these three areas are practical starting conditions that would enable successful collaborative planning for the seven areas of water uses. Focusing on these three areas would ensure the current and future needs of the community of water users are met, while avoiding reactive ways of solving water problems in the LD region, especially as the water crisis in the Canadian Prairie region where LD is located is expected to intensify.

Simulating trans-boundary watershed water resources conflict

With the rapid development of economy, the water shortage and water intake competition have been further intensified, resulting in the conflict of water resources development. This paper, against the amount of water conflict, has respectively constructed the three-party evolutionary game model regarding the water intake condition at the upper, middle and lower reaches of the river basin from the perspective of evolutionary game theory, verified the related conclusions with the numerical simulation. The conclusions of the research are as follows: (1) There are four sets of system local asymptotic stability points P20,0,1, P40,1,1,P61,0,1 and P81,1,1 in the three-party game of amount of water based trans-boundary water resources conflict, which means there existed four sets of evolutionary stable strategies (non-cooperation, non-cooperation, cooperation), (non-cooperation, cooperation, cooperation), (cooperation, non-cooperation, cooperation), and (cooperation, cooperation, cooperation). After the verification with the numerical simulation, the most contradictory area is existed between the upper and middle reaches of the river basin. Thus, the selected choice is (non-cooperation, non-cooperation, cooperation); (2) as for the amount of water based trans-boundary water resources conflict, the cost of cooperation water intake C1 has a significant impact on the strategy evolutionary path of the water intake group. This is of great theoretical and practical significance for the scientific regulation of trans-boundary water resources conflict and the realization of water resource management goals.