Water Level Drawdown Research Articles

HORIZONTAL CIRCULAR PUMPING WELLS TO MINIMIZE SALINE WATER UPCONING: WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT MEASURE FOR TROPICAL SAVANNA CLIMATIC NINH THUAN AREA, VIETNAM

Link for citation: Nguyen Van Hoang, Trinh Hoai Thu, Shakirov R.B., Syrbu N.S., Tran Thi Thuy Huong, Lee N.S. Horizontal circular pumping wells to minimize saline water upconing: water resource development measure for tropical savanna climatic Ninh Thuan area, Vietnam. Bulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University. Geo Аssets Engineering, 2023, vol. 334, no. 4, рр.209-220. In Rus.
 The relevance. The Southern central region of Vietnam, including Ninh Thuan province, has a tropical savanna climate and has been heavily suffering from drought and water salinization. Ninh Thuan province has faced severe droughts in recent years because of the increase of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions, the water scarcity, and the salinity of the groundwater. The distribution of fresh and saline groundwater in Ninh Thuan plain has three zones: 1) zone of entire profile with fresh groundwater; 2) zone of the upper profile's with fresh groundwater and of the lower profile's with saline groundwater, and 3) zone of entire profile with saline groundwater. The groundwater abstraction facilities in the first zone are vulnerable to salinization from surrounding saline water, while in the second zone are vulnerable to the upconing saline water from below. The aim: to determine the optimal groundwater pumping in respect to given water level drawdown, to show that the horizontal circular wells are the best for minimization of saline water upconing, to determine the relationship between the saline water upconing height and the radii of the horizontal circular wells. Objects: tropical savanna climate, coastal plain, fresh and saline groundwater, aquifer with fresh water in the upper profile and saline water in the lower profile, circular groundwater wells, saline water upconing. Methods: finite element method, dynamic programming, Dagan–Bear model of saline water upconing, superimposition principle in dealing with multiple pumping points for identification of overall saline water upconing. Results. Different schemes of pumping fields with either vertical wells or horizontal circular wells with different radii were analyzed for saline water upconing. The time of saline upconing height in all the alternative schemes were determined. A very well regression curve of the relationship between the time saline water upconing to the horizontal circular wells and the circular well radii was obtained. The analysis results are extremely useful supporting well design in terms of minimization of saline water upconing.

Modelling of the Fate of 137Cs and 90Sr in the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant Cooling Pond before and after the Water Level Drawdown

During the accident in April 1986, the Cooling Pond (CP) of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP) was heavily contaminated by fuel particles and radionuclides of cesium-137 (137Cs) and strontium-90 (90Sr). Starting from the end of 2014, a gradual decrease of the CP water level began leading to the transformation of the whole reservoir into eight separate sectors and raising the concern of the fate of 137Cs and 90Sr in the future. In this study, two mathematical models were applied to reproduce radioactive contamination of the CP from 1986 to 2021 and to provide a forecast of 137Cs and 90Sr concentrations in the CP water from 2022 to 2030. The hydrodynamic model THREETOX provided three-dimensional (3D) currents in the CP corresponding to hydrological conditions before and after water level drawdown, and these currents were used in the box model POSEIDON-F for the long-term simulations of the changes in 137Cs and 90Sr concentrations in water, bottom sediments, and biota. Seasonal changes in the distribution coefficient (Kd) describing the partition of 137Cs between water and sediments were considered in the box model, which allowed us to reproduce the observed variations of concentration. Calculated concentrations of 137Cs and 90Sr in water and freshwater fish occupying different trophic levels agreed well with measurements for the entire post-accident period. After the water level drawdown, concentrations of 137Cs in the CP water slightly increased in all eight sectors, while 90Sr concentrations significantly increased in sectors close to ChNPP, which was explained by an additional 90Sr source when comparing the simulation results and measurement data. Using the model forecast from 2022 to 2030, we predict that the concentration of both radionuclides will gradually decrease in new water bodies of the Cooling Pond except in the northern sectors, where the suggested additional source of 90Sr will lead to a stabilization of 90Sr concentrations.

Vascular Plant Succession on an Exposed Fluvial Delta Plain After a Permanent Lake Water Level Drawdown. A 33-Year Time Course

A permanent lake water level drawdown initiates a vegetation succession on exposed sediments. This study aims to quantify long-term vascular plant changes on the sediments in time (number of years after drawdown) and space (elevation above the new water level). Shortly after a 1.4 m permanent drawdown of Myrkdalen lake, W Norway, a 40 m long transect running from the original lowermost vegetation toward the new water level was established. Species cover percentages in the 2 m2 study plots were determined by visual estimates and data sampling was performed from 1988 until 2020; in total, 19 times. During the study period both mean richness and plant percentage cover varied significantly in relation to space and time. Carex vesicaria and Phalaris arundinacea increased gradually especially in the lower parts. The successional changes as quantified by a DCA ordination showed rapid changes during the first 15-20 years, but later the vegetation appeared to be more stabilized. Elevation explained the mean floristic variation in a linear fashion while a quadratic model better explained the variation in relation to time. Variation in summer and June water level explained a small part of the succession change during the study period.

The long-term failure processes of a large reactivated landslide in the Xiluodu reservoir area based on InSAR technology

After the first impoundment of the reservoir, many landslides seriously threatened the safety of the reservoir. Accurate determination of the relationship between the landslide deformation characteristics and water-level fluctuations is crucial. However, with the increasing number of water-level fluctuation cycles, the deformation characteristics of the landslides were also changing, and long-term continuous monitoring to capture the failure process of reservoir landslides is necessary. A large reacted landslide in the Xiluodu reservoir was set as an example, using InSAR technology to seek its variations of deformation characteristics over nine years. The local deformation rate and annual maximum deformation area variation were analyzed by InSAR technology based on Sentinel-1 descending SAR data from October 2014 to June 2022. According to the regional deformation characteristics, the landslide was divided into three zones: Zone I above the elevation of 950 m; Zone II below it; the front edge of Zone II, where the collapse happened, was further divided into Zone III. In general, the accumulated deformation in Zone I was the largest, followed by Zone III, and Zone II was the smallest. The average deformation rate of Zone II was the smallest. Zone I of NLJL was mainly affected by the drawdown of reservoir water level, and the impacts of water-level rising and drawdown on Zone II and Zone III were similar. After analyzing a nine-year variation of the deformation area, the deformation mechanism of NLJL changed from a retrogressive type to a progressive one after the first impoundment and then changed back to a retrogressive one after 2017. The impact of reservoir impoundment on NLJL was most substantial in the first three years after the first impoundment.

Characterization of sliding surface deformation and stability evaluation of landslides with fiber–optic strain sensing nerves

Deformation monitoring of sliding zones or surfaces is of great significance to investigate evolution stages and triggering factors of landslides. The fiber–optic strain sensing cables, similar to human nerves, are capable of capturing slight movements in a distributed sensing and nearly real–time manner. However, the interaction between fiber–optic strain sensing nerves and surrounding geomaterials under shearing remains unclear. In this study, a novel analytical methodology for interpreting the cable–soil interaction under shear deformation and a reliable solution to calculate the shear displacements of critical interfaces in landslides are presented. The feasibility of the proposed method is proven through laboratory shear tests and later applied to calculate the shear displacements of the Majiagou landslide located in the Three Gorges Reservoir region, China. Finally, the empirical relationships between the measured strains and factors of safety are established. It is proved that the reservoir water level drawdown and rainfall cause accelerated shear deformation of this landslide.

Numerical Simulation of Temporal Variability of Methane Emissions from Mozhaysk Reservoir

Estimates of methane emission from the Mozhaysk reservoir surface were carried out using the mathematical model LAKE2.3. The average emission value is 361 tC per year, the average flux = 37.7 mgC–CH4 m–2 day–1. Comparison of the obtained estimates with in situ measurements revealed, that the methane emission and specific flux according to the model are in good agreement with the observations data. The ebullition makes the largest contribution to the total emission. During the heating period, an increase of methane emission is observed with a maximum before the autumn mixing stage. In the course of numerical experiments with the model, it was found that the amplitude of methane fluxes into the atmosphere is associated with fluctuations in atmospheric pressure, and the most significant emissions peaks associated with water level drawdowns. Effective method for calibrating the diffusion component of the methane flux into the atmosphere is the potential rate of methane oxidation in the Michaelis-Menten reaction, and for ebullition it is the methane generation parameter in bottom sediments — q10. For the described numerical experiments, the article presents the values of the annual emissions of methane into the atmosphere.

On the design of bank revetments at inland waterways subjected to ship-induced water level drawdown: A probabilistic infinite slope analysis

To protect embankments along German inland waterways against local slope sliding failure caused by ship-induced water level drawdown, they are mainly secured by bank revetments. Often, large embankment sections are designed on the basis of a limited number of field and laboratory tests. Thus, uncertainties arise with regard to the mechanical and hydraulic ground properties. Current design standards account for these uncertainties by conservative design assumptions and empirical knowledge. This paper investigates the effects of vertically non-homogeneous ground properties on the required armour layer thickness using 1D random fields and an infinite slope model, which was modified to account for ship-induced drawdowns. Within the limitations of the infinite slope assumptions, the effects of a spatially variable friction angle and hydraulic conductivity are investigated and compared to deterministic benchmark cases. The investigations show that the level of safety obtained with the deterministic design depends strongly on the choice of the characteristic values. Particularly, the hydraulic conductivity determines the reliability of the design. In some cases, the 5 % quantile of the hydraulic conductivity does not yield a conservative estimate of the required armour layer thickness. In the case of the effective friction angle, the 5 % quantile may overestimate the required armour layer thickness for permeable soils. For less permeable soils, the 5 % quantile meets the solution of the random field analyses. For the combination of random effective friction angle and random hydraulic conductivity, all investigated benchmark studies seem to ensure engineering safety, but on different reliability levels. Based on these findings, recommendations regarding site exploration and choice of characteristic values of hydraulic conductivity and effective friction angle are provided.

Mapping regional subsidence rate from electricity consumption-based groundwater extraction

Study regionChoushui River alluvial fan in central Taiwan. Study focusExcessive land subsidence is occurring in the Choushui alluvial fan, Taiwan. Groundwater pumping in the region is not monitored so pumping volumes are estimated from information based on electricity consumption. Groundwater pumping data alone cannot be used to accurately estimate the spatial rate and distribution of subsidence due to the low spatial correlation between estimated pumping volumes and subsidence from heterogeneous geologic materials. Time-dependent spatial regression is a reliable tool for estimating the spatial distribution of annual rate of subsidence based on spatial mapping of pumped groundwater volumes and monitored land subsidence. New hydrological insights for the regionEstimates of pumping quantities indicate that the locations of subsidence from overexploitation of groundwater from the underlying aquifer system is not always spatially correlated with major pumping areas or with the observed locations of maximum water-level drawdown. Considering time-dependent spatial regression models, the average RMSE of annual subsidence is 0.65 cm for the Choushui alluvial fan, indicating the high level of correlation between measured and estimated subsidence. These findings show that annual subsidence can be reliably estimated and predicted under the field pumping conditions of the study site. The influences of reduced withdrawals based on the relation between annual subsidence and pumping volumes can be evaluated for improved best management practices.

Modelling of pH changes in alkaline lakes with water transfer from a neutral river

While water transfer from rivers to alkaline lakes has been proposed to solve lake water level drawdown and ecological degradation problems, its effectiveness for achieving ecological goals is often questionable. A sudden pH decline in alkaline lakes due to water transfer is considered likely to harm the lake ecology. However, it remains unclear to what extent water transfer affects alkaline lake pH. Thus, a three-dimensional numerical model coupling a pH calculation method considering the carbonate balance with the MIKE3 hydrodynamic model was developed to predict pH changes in an alkaline lake. Laboratory and field measurements verified the model reliability. The model accurately simulated the mixed-water pH during water transfer, with a root mean square error of 0.03–0.07 and a coefficient of determination of 0.894–0.998. The model was then applied to predict the pH response to water transfer in Lake Chenghai. The results showed that the pH response to water transfer demonstrated spatial and temporal variability, and a low-pH diffusion zone (pH ≤ 9) formed in the northern parts of the lake during annual water transfer; the effects of water transfer on the pH in the lake were cumulative over time, and the average pH in Lake Chenghai after five years decreased by 0.2 units; strong wind and low inflow could effectively reduce the low-pH diffusion area; and daily thermal stratification of the plateau region threatened the low-pH diffusion area control in Lake Chenghai. Our results provide a new reference for formulating ecological water transfer strategies for alkaline lakes and similar water bodies.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Soil Slope Stability Subjected to Water Drawdown by Finite Element Limit Analysis

This study investigates the probabilistic stability of embankment slopes subjected to water level drawdown using the random field finite element method (RFEM) with strength reduction technology. The shear strength of soil properties was controlled by cohesion and internal friction angle for the slope shear failure. The cohesion and internal friction angle were modeled by a random field following the log-normal distribution. The factor of safety (FOS) for the embankment slope with random soil is calculated by strength reduction technology. During the numerical simulation, the limit analysis upper bound and lower bound method are applied to the finite element method, respectively, to obtain the upper bound and lower bound value of the FOS. Seepage action is also considered during the water drawdown by setting five different water levels (WLs). A total of 1000 Monte Carlo simulations are performed for each work condition, resulting in histograms of the FOSs. The results show that the FOSs obtained by the random field model are all lower than those by the deterministic method. Even if the FOSs obtained by the two methods are close, there still exists the possibility of slope failure. Compared to the deterministic results, the RFEM method is more reasonable for evaluating slope stability.

Reservoir slope reliability analysis under water level drawdown considering spatial variability and degradation of soil properties

There are many factors that affect reservoir slope stability, including inherent spatial variability and degradation of soil properties induced by infiltration of water. To incorporate these two factors into reservoir slope reliability analysis, a probabilistic framework is developed combining an uncoupled finite element method (FEM) and limit equilibrium method (LEM) deterministic model, random field theory and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The proposed methodology is illustrated through a typical reservoir slope. The influences of spatial variabilities and degradation coefficients of soil properties on reservoir slope stability are fully studied. The simulation results show that the failure probability increases significantly as the scale of fluctuation λv increases from 1 m to 10 m (approximately the slope height) and varies slightly after λv is greater than 10 m under a given drawdown speed without considering the degradation of soil properties. Pf increases with the drawdown speed varying from 0.5 m/d to 3.0 m/d under a given λv. The relative enhancement in Pf between 0.5 m/d and 3.0 m/d decreases sharply from a larger value (118.4 % in this study) to 29.5 % as λv ranges from 2 m to 10 m and varies slightly at 15.4 % when λv is greater than 10 m. As expected, Pf increases dramatically to 1.0 as the soil property (cohesion or internal friction angle) degraded to a specific value. A critical degraded value of soil property exists when the effect of spatial variability on Pf is studied. When the current degraded value is greater than the critical degraded value, Pf increases as λv increases, and vice versa. The critical degraded value varies with the drawdown speed. The larger the drawdown speed is, the greater the critical degraded value.

Wise Management or Mismatch? Lessons from Japan

As a precious resource, wetlands support human life in various profound ways, either explicitly or implicitly. However, the values of wetlands have not been sufficiently recognized and greatly appreciated. Their management approaches are often sectoral, and wise use of wetlands is still more of a catchphrase than a well-used management practice. This paper presents a cross-sectoral case study for the evaluation of the primary management practices in a Ramsar-registered wetland in Japan. It employed a literature review, field and laboratory experiments, and a questionnaire survey as well for assessing the wetland conditions and identifying management problems. It revealed that the management of the wetland is still flood regulation–oriented, without sufficient consideration of bird habitats, and the water level drawdown operation for Lake Yanaka inside the wetland may lead to mass fish deaths. Furthermore, the reed burning practice is effective in maintaining the plant structure in the wetland but controversial from different perspectives. Moreover, the questionnaire survey results indicated that the public were not well informed of the wetland conditions and not convinced of the appropriateness of reed burning. Based on these findings, it was concluded that the registration under the Ramsar Convention did not lead to new strategies for the conservation and wise use of the wetland.

Transparent soil model test of a landslide with umbrella-shaped anchors and different slope angles in response to rapid drawdown

Umbrella-shaped anchors, as new stabilizing structures, have been increasingly adopted in engineering practice due to their simple structure, ease of installation, and high load capacity. Reservoir operation, especially during rapid drawdown, affects the long-term stability of reservoir bank slopes as this process affects the stress, seepage and deformation characteristics of the water-level fluctuation (WLF) zone. Thus, the characteristics of the deformation and failure mode of WLF zones reinforced by umbrella-shaped anchors under rapid drawdown conditions are important for the design and construction of anchoring measures. Five slope-anchor scale models based on the Yingpan landslide were established as transparent soil models considering different slope angles and drawdown rates. Displacement, velocity and macroscopic deformation data were obtained using particle image velocimetry (PIV) technology. The results indicated that the deformation process of both reinforced and unreinforced slopes under rapid drawdown conditions could be divided into four phases: initial, shallow sliding, multisliding and stable phases. In the anchor-reinforced models, loss of soil particles occurred when the water level dropped to reach the anchor heads, causing the anchor plates to loosen and slope deformation to accelerate, especially near the lower row of cables. The anchor heads failed first, and progressive slope sliding ensued. Under rapid drawdown conditions, soil liquefaction and subsequent loosening and sliding occurred, generating a far larger zone of accumulation than the zone of collapse. This indicates that soil liquefaction is another important factor of the link between rapid water level drawdown and slope instability causing local collapses. Combining the experimental results and 47 sets of field monitoring data, it could be concluded that the slope stability decreases with increasing slope angle of the WLF zone. This occurs because a higher water level is needed for deformation initiation in the WLF zone in the case of a higher slope angle.

Experimental Study of Artificial Recharge of Unconfined Groundwater Aquifer for Elected Sites in Salahaddin, Iraq

The study aims to assess the efficiency and susceptibility of aquifers and geological formations in Salahaddin to store excess surface water in rainy and flood seasons, to be alternatives for surface aquifers and to achieve an increase in groundwater levels. Five sites that represent several hydrological basins have been selected for artificial recharge experiments, in which two types of experiments were conducted. In the first, the water was injected into the recharge well with monitoring the level in the same recharge well. In the second, water was injected into the recharge well and the water level was monitored in a close well to the recharge one. Test infusion experiments have been conducted in some locations, and data of water level drawdown was drawn in against time in the form of hydrographs, by using Excel program with attempting to analyze groundwater behavior and movement within the unsaturated layers of the aquifer. Then, the hydraulic properties have also been calculated in some locations from pumping tests or artificial recharge experiments and drawing the hydrograph curve using (Aquifer win32). The study concluded that all the aquifers, in which the artificial recharge experiments were carried out, were very efficient in their response to injections, with minor variations due to heterogeneity of porous media and the thickness of unsaturated zones, which cause different permeability between layers, and different hydraulic properties of aquifers.

Inferring causal impacts of extreme water-level drawdowns on lake water clarity using long-term monitoring data

Although long-term ecosystem monitoring provides essential knowledge for practicing ecosystem management, analyses of the causal effects of ecological impacts from large-scale observational data are still in an early stage of development. We used causal impact analysis (CIA)—a synthetic control method that enables estimation of causal impacts from unrepeated, long-term observational data—to evaluate the causal impacts of extreme water-level drawdowns during summer on subsequent water quality. We used more than 100 years of transparency and water level monitoring data from Lake Biwa, Japan. The results of the CIA showed that the most extreme drawdown in recorded history, which occurred in 1994, had a significant positive effect on transparency (a maximum increase of 1.75 m on average over the following year) in the north basin of the lake. The extreme drawdown in 1939 was also shown to be a trigger for an increase in transparency in the north basin, whereas that in 1984 had no significant effects on transparency. In the south basin, contrary to the pattern in the north basin, the extreme drawdown had a significant negative effect on transparency shortly after the extreme drawdown. These different impacts of the extreme drawdowns were considered to be affected by the timing and magnitude of the extreme drawdowns and the depths of the basins. Our approach of inferring the causal impacts of past events on ecosystems will be helpful in implementing water-level management for ecosystem management and improving water quality in lakes.

The impact of willow brush mattresses on the mechanical filtration stability

Geotextiles or grain filters are frequently used between technical revetment and subsoil at riverbanks on waterways as erosion control from hydraulic loads. Due to the EU Water Framework Directive of the year 2000 (Directive 2000/60/EC) and other EU Directives ecological and near nature hydraulic engineering measures are becoming ever more in demand. That's why more technical-biological bank protection under the use of plants should be applied, for example willow brush mattresses, plant mats, reed gabions.Based on the investigations of the filtration stability of geotextiles used at navigable waterways, a method, and a new test apparatus for verifying the soil retention capability and the mechanical filtration stability of willow brush mattresses and their dense, near-surface root system have been developed.Willow brush mattresses made of white willows (Salix alba L.) or basket willows (Salix viminalis L.) were planted in wooden sample boxes and placed upside down into the test apparatus after a pre-set growing time (0, 1, 3 and 6 months). By flooding and draining the test apparatus water level drawdown has been simulated.The eroded soil material was collected, weighed after drying until weight constancy, and compared with the dry mass of the retained soil material.The results of this new developed mechanical filtration stability tests for willow brush mattresses show that during the initial phase of six months the willow roots reduced soil erosion. Thus, in long-term plant roots can take over mechanical filter function in near nature bank protection. The basket willow led to significant reductions in soil erosion i.e., an increase of the soil retention capability after one month and the white willow after three months of growth.

Low water level drives high nitrous oxide emissions from treatment wetland

Wetlands that are restored for carbon sequestration or created for water treatment are an important sources of greenhouse gases, especially methane. The emission of nitrous oxide (N2O) from these systems is often considered negligible due to the inundation and anerobic conditions that support complete denitrification. We used closed chamber method to analyze N2O fluxes over a long-term period across heterogeneous wetland ecosystem constructed for treating nitrate-rich agricultural runoff. Our results showed that the water depth and temperature were most important factors affecting high N2O emissions. The shallow areas where water depth was less than 9 cm created N2O hot spots that emitted 48.8% of the total wetlands annual emission while only covering 6% of the total area. The annual emission from shallow-water hot spots with dense helophytic vegetation was 4.85 ± 0.5 g N2O–N m−2 y−1 while it was only 0.37 ± 0.01 g N2O–N m−2 y−1 in deeper zones. While the water depth was the main factor for high N2O emissions, the temperatures increased the magnitude of the flux and therefore summer droughts and water drawdown created even larger hot spots. These results also suggest that IPCC benchmarks could underestimate N2O emission from shallow waterbodies. Thus, it is important that the shallow zones and water level drawdown in the created or restored wetlands is avoided to minimize the N2O flux.

Stability Analysis of Upstream and Downstream Dam Slopes with Water Level Drawdown Using Response Surface Function

Stability Analysis of Upstream and Downstream Dam Slopes with Water Level Drawdown Using Response Surface Function

Two Mechanisms Drive Changes in Boreal Peatland Photosynthesis Following Long-Term Water Level Drawdown: Species Turnover and Altered Photosynthetic Capacity

Climate change and the related increases in evapotranspiration threaten to make northern peatlands drier. The carbon sink function in peatlands is based on the delicate balance between the photosynthesis and decomposition. However, little is known about how existing and invading plant species will photosynthesize under drier conditions. The aim of this study is to quantify the long-term consequences of climate change-induced drying for peatland photosynthesis in the level of individual species and vegetation community. We measured the species-level photosynthesis of vascular plants and mosses characteristic for the three peatland types (rich fen, poor fen, bog) within a 16-year water level drawdown (WLD) experiment. Measurements were made in the laboratory from mesocosms collected from the field within the same day. We applied nonlinear mixed-effects models to test the impact of WLD on hyperbolic photosynthetic light response curve parameters. The model was then used to upscale photosynthesis to site-level. WLD impacted site-level photosynthesis through two mechanisms: species turnover and changes in species-level photosynthesis rate. The rich fen was the most sensitive and underwent major changes through both mechanisms; the vascular plant community shifted to woody plant dominance with higher rate of photosynthesis than the pre-treatment vegetation, and the rate of species-level photosynthesis increased significantly. The bog had a stable plant community with little change in photosynthesis, while the poor fen was an intermediate of the three peatland types. Our results suggest that vascular plants are the main drivers of site-level productivity changes, while mosses are more resistant to change. The change seems proportional to the availability of mineral nutrients, with higher nutrient status supporting vascular plant expansion.

Water shortage and countermeasures of irrigation area around Lake Poyang in dry seasons

近年来，在以三峡大坝为代表的一系列流域人类活动作用下，鄱阳湖出现了枯水期延长、水位提前消落的现象，导致了一系列生态环境和民生问题.本文从环湖灌溉缺水入手，采用11种概率分布分析1953—2018年星子站水位，进行比较优选后选择Wakeby分布作为理论分布，得到90%保证率下的湖泊年平均水位及枯季9月至翌年2月月平均水位，并据历年平均水位选取代表水文年，进行环湖灌区水资源供需分析，获得缺水量.在此基础上，建立灌区缺水量变化与长江干流流量变化的量化关系，讨论其应对策略.结果表明：自2003年三峡工程运行以来，由于湖泊枯季水位降低，90%保证率下鄱阳湖环湖灌区9月至翌年2月的缺水量已达到2.26亿、2.12亿、0.57亿、0.58亿、0.55亿、0.25亿m³.通过调节长江干流流量满足环湖灌区用水需求的方案受到时段和“五河”来水状况的限制，即该方案仅适用于枯季9—10月“五河”来水减少的情况下.受限于这些条件，调节长江来水并非治本之策，目前仍需采取其他更为有效的手段以恢复鄱阳湖的水位及其过程.;In recent years, due to the influence of a series of human activities around the river basin represented by the Three Gorges Dam, the dry season duration of Lake Poyang was prolonged and early drawdown of water level was observed. This leads to a series of ecological and livelihood issues. To investigate the water shortage of irrigation around the lake, this paper analyzed the water level of Xingzi Station from 1953 to 2018 by applying eleven probability distribution functions. The Wakeby distribution was selected as the theoretical distribution after comparison. Both the mean annual water level and mean monthly water level during the dry season under a 90% guarantee rate were obtained. Based on the mean annual water level over the years, the representative hydrological year was selected to analyze the supply and demand of water resources, thus the water shortage was obtained. Consequently, the quantitative relationship between water shortage change of the irrigation area and water discharge change of the main channel of Changjiang River was established, and the countermeasures were discussed. The results show that the water shortage (under 90% guarantee rate) of irrigation area around Lake Poyang has accordingly reached 226 million m³, 212 million m³, 57 million m³, 58 million m³, 55 million m³ and 25 million m³ from September to February of the next year, since the operation of the Three Gorges Dam in 2003. The solution to meet the water demand of the irrigation area by regulating the water discharge of the main channel of Changjiang River is only applicable to the situation when the water discharge from the ‘Five Rivers’ decreases in September and October. Therefore, to restore the water level of Lake Poyang and its process, other more effective means are needed.