Water-intensive Goods Research Articles

Is the World Running Out of Fresh Water?

The quantity of water within Earth and its atmosphere is fixed over time, but water available for human consumption evolves dynamically. We use globally comprehensive geospatial data to establish stylized facts about recent changes in global water resources and potential implications for human welfare. We show that the net change in water volume on arable lands—which account for 90 percent of human water consumption—is almost exactly zero. Rapid water loss is concentrated in regions with large populations, low existing water resources, and low agronomic potential. Incorporating trade data shows that water-scarce regions are net importers of water-intensive goods.

“Neither Water, nor War:” the Problem of Fresh Water in International Relations of the First Quarter of the 21<sup>st</sup> Century

In this article, the author compares the objective dynamics of changes in the state of the water problem since the beginning of the 21st century, which has continued to worsen in most regions of the world, and its foreign policy dimension, noting the transition from the global water alarmism of the 1990s to the challenges for small and medium powers, in solving the problems in which no major actor is yet actively interested. Fresh water, despite the slogans at the end of the last century about future water wars, the “blue oil” and the “new gold” of the 21ST century, has not become, and is unlikely to become, the cause of confrontation between great powers, while medium and small powers are still confine themselves to more traditional forms of conflict, including in the Tigris, the Euphrates and the Jordan basins, which have been seen for decades as a testing ground for future water wars. This does not negate the role of water bodies and ecosystems in promoting development or, conversely, in perpetuating the poverty and backwardness in entire regions. Waters remain in competition as an important source of water-intensive goods that can be converted into valuable assets – water-intensive goods, energy or the ability to achieve higher levels of the Human Development Index. And, of course, they can be used to exacerbate ethnic and political conflicts. This is where the potential of Russia, the world’s second water power, comes into play, both in terms of directly regulating regional water challenges and in influencing the approaches of international organizations and associations, in which Moscow plays a prominent role.

Economic Research on the Global Allocation of Scarce Water Resources Needs Better Data

Water sustainability is central to modern political and academic debates. Despite increasing efforts to promote regional and global integrated water management, climate change, population, and economic growth, and increasing consumption of water-intensive goods project higher water deficiency. Robust economic analyses rely on information about water supply and consumption across different production sectors, type of procurement source (public or private water supply), and water prices. Nevertheless, developing current and future economic water assessments and indicators is impeded by the absence of data. Despite the lack of official national statistics on water withdrawal and consumption, a small number of international and global databases have been constructed and attempt to combine available national water information into databases. Water databases do not commonly define and/or distinguish terms such as water use, water consumption, water supply, or water abstraction, and the associated aspects of water scarcity and sustainability. They comprise variable data quality, provided by numerous sources, and estimated values. This paper evaluates the current state of knowledge of national statistics, international and global water databases. We describe the data collection methods, identify basic concepts and definitions of water terms, followed by the criteria of consistent water databases. We inform about data availability across regions, and present the data content and definitions of national, international, and global water databases. The results show inconsistencies of data content and definitions, suggesting no evidence of data harmonization among databases. Therefore, our study cautions researchers to be careful when manipulating and comparing the available water data, especially when deriving policy recommendations or economic conclusions. In the long run, the headway of water research and political assessments depend on political enforcements to refine the meaningfulness of water data and support water collection, reporting, and monitoring. Alternatively, in the short- and medium-run, water data challenges can be addressed by joint research efforts for water data harmonization.

Future changes in the trading of virtual water

Water stressed regions rely heavily on the import of water-intensive goods to offset insufficient food production driven by socioeconomic and environmental factors. The water embedded in these traded commodities, virtual water, has received increasing interest in the scientific community. However, comprehensive future projections of virtual water trading remain absent. Here we show, for the first time, changes over the 21st century in the amount of various water types required to meet international agricultural demands. Accounting for evolution in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, we estimate future interregional virtual water trading and find trading of renewable water sources may triple by 2100 while nonrenewable groundwater trading may at least double. Basins in North America, and the La Plata and Nile Rivers are found to contribute extensively to virtual water exports, while much of Africa, India, and the Middle East relies heavily on virtual water imports by the end of the century.

Vulnerabilities of the European Union’s Economy to Hydrological Extremes Outside its Borders

Climate change is leading to increased water scarcity and drought in many parts of the world. This has implications for the European Union (EU) because a lot of the water intensive goods consumed or used there are produced abroad. This makes the EU’s economy dependent on water resources well beyond its borders since when a country imports water intensive goods, indirectly it also imports virtual water (water needed to produce the imported goods). This study maps the EU’s global dependency on water resources outside its borders in terms of virtual water imports and assesses how water scarcity and drought may disrupt supplies of key food crops that it imports. The EU uses approximately 668 km3 of water for all of the goods it produces, consumes and exports, annually. Around 38% of that water comes from outside its borders, which means that the EU’s economy is highly dependent on the availability of water in other parts of the world. In the near future, supplies of certain crops to the EU could be disrupted due to water scarcity in other parts of the world; a large portion of the water used in producing soybeans, rice, sugarcane, cotton, almonds, pistachios and grapes for import to the EU comes from areas with significant or severe levels of water scarcity. Although the immediate risks to the EU’s economy are due to current water scarcity levels, any disruption to rainfall patterns that occur in the future, due to the effects of climate change in the countries of origin of key crops, could have a far greater impact. This is because as much as 92% of the EU’s total external water demand from agriculture is attributed to green water use, availability of which has relatively higher vulnerability to drought.

The Water Footprint of European Agricultural Imports: Hotspots in the Context of Water Scarcity

This study investigates the Water Footprint (WF) resulting from the agricultural imports of the European Union (EU-28). Import trade statistics were compiled and linked with crop- and country-specific water consumption data and water scarcity factors. Within the study, the virtual water imports of 104 agricultural commodities for the baseline year 2015 were assessed and product and country hotspots were evaluated. It was shown that (a) Europe imported 100 million tons of agricultural goods and 11 km3 of associated virtual irrigation water; (b) the highest impacts of water consumption do not necessarily result from high import amounts, but from water-intensive goods produced in water scarce countries; (c) the largest external EU-28 water footprint occurred due to the product categories cotton, nuts and rice; and (d) the highest share of the EU external water footprint took place in the United States (US), Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and India.

Regional water footprints and interregional virtual water transfers in China

China faces increasingly severe water stress from its limited, unevenly distributed water resources and rapid economic growth. Interregional trade of goods and services within China further leads to a redistribution of water resources through virtual water transfers. Such virtual transfers are subject to constant changes due to the temporal variabilities in driving factors such as production efficiency, consumption patterns and population. Here we use the most recent public data to measure the water footprints of 31 provincial-level regions in China and virtual water transfers among these regions in 2012. We find that virtual water transfer plays a significant role in regional water footprints and greatly changes the allocation of water resources towards regional consumptions. Already water-scarce north China regions benefit from virtual water transfer by outsourcing water-intensive products from other regions. However, the water-scarce Northwest China suffers from virtual water transfer by exporting water-intensive products. We suggest policy makers pay attention to demand-side measures to incentivize parties to improve water efficiency in their production and reduce the consumption of water-intensive goods. Policymaking should consider economic policy and water conservation policy together to alleviate regional water stress through virtual water transfers.

State of future water regimes in the world’s river basins: balancing the water between society and nature

Global freshwater resources have faced critical water security challenges during the 21st century in the world’s river basins. Shortages of water have impaired economic development by disrupting regimes of river flows, ecosystem functioning and food security. Excessive surface and groundwater withdrawals have almost reached the threshold. The current withdrawals of total water (4700 km3·y−1) suggest the imbalance of water use and renewal rates in the world’s river basins. The water security issues are further intensified by phosphate and nitrate pollution from land use and climate change. Today, about 400 million people worldwide experience extreme shortages of water for daily use. Limited availability of water which needs to meet the basic needs of hygiene and sanitation for consumption and other uses has increased competition among users. While the society demands more water-intensive goods and services, the ecosystems are however left behind, consequently leading to increased conflicts and insecurity. Equitable water allocation for people and nature is becoming increasingly urgent. However, understanding the complex interactions between the society and nature in the world’s river basins is limited. This paper aims to unravel some key strategies that enhance future water security through the advancement of science, knowledge and technologies in the world’s river basins.

The Decomposition Analysis of Tourism Water Footprint in Taiwan: Revealing Decision-Relevant Information

Tourism water consumption reflects the dynamics between the visitation volume, economic structure, and water use technology of a destination. This paper presents a structural decomposition analysis that attributes changes of Taiwan’s tourism water footprint into the demand factors of total consumption and purchasing patterns, and production factors of the industry input structure and water use technology. From 2006 to 2011, Taiwan experienced a 48% growth in visitor expenditures and a 74% surge in its water footprint. Diseconomies of scale were observed, with a 1% increase in consumption leading to a 1.5% increase in the tourism water footprint. A strong preference by visitors for water-intensive goods and services and a changing economic structure requiring more water input for tourism establishments and supply chain members contributed to this worrisome pattern. The water requirements received only a minimal offset effect with technological improvements. Decoupling tourism water consumption from economic output is currently unattainable.

Water Footprint Assessment in the Agro-industry: A Case Study of Soy Sauce Production

In terms of global water scarcity, the water footprint is an indicator of the use of water resources that given knowledge about the environmental impact of consuming a product. The sustainable use of water resources nowadays bring challenges related to the production and consumption phase of water intensive related goods such as in the agro-industry. The objective of the study was to assessment the total water footprint from soy sauce production in Grobogan Regency. The total water footprint is equal to the sum of the supply chain water footprint and the operational water footprint. The assessment is based on the production chain diagram of soy sauce production which presenting the relevant process stages from the source to the final product. The result of this research is the total water footprint of soy sauce production is 1.986,35 L/kg with fraction of green water 78,43%, blue water 21,4% and gray water 0,17%.

The macroeconomic impact of future water scarcity: An assessment of alternative scenarios

In this paper we consider some of the economic implications of climate change scenarios as described in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). By comparing potential water demand with estimates of (sustainable) water availability in different regions, we identify regions that are likely to be constrained in their future economic growth potential by the scarcity of water resources. We assess the macroeconomic impact of water scarcity under alternative allocation rules finding that, by assigning more water to sectors in which it has a higher value, shifting production to less water intensive sectors, and importing more water intensive goods, constrained regions can effectively neutralize these water related climate risks and adapt to a changing water environment. However, this adaptation effort is likely to imply some radical changes in water management policies.

International virtual water flows from agricultural and livestock products of India

Indirect trade of water (virtual water) through export of crop and livestock products may pose a risk to water resources in the exporting country. Management strategies can be framed by identifying the partner countries and the current status of water resources in these countries. This study for the first time analyses the virtual water trade of India considering the specific virtual water contents of crop and livestock products from all partner countries from 1986 to 2013 (28 years). Average virtual water export of India is 59 Bm3/y and virtual water import is 32.6 Bm3/y. Net virtual water import (−26.4 Bm3/y) indicates India is a major exporter. Oil, cereals, industrial products (cotton, jute, hides etc.) and semi-luxury goods contribute to 79% of virtual water export. Oil and nuts contribute to 71% of virtual water import. Decline in virtual water trade due to slow economic growth and impact of floods are reflected in the inter-annual variation. Highest virtual water trade from India is to countries in Asia (74% as virtual water export and 59% as virtual water import). Virtual water import to India are mainly through palm oil, cashew nuts, soybean, sunflower oil, wheat, rubber, cotton and pulses. Water footprint of India has increased by 1.3 times in 28 years. Strategies for sustainable management of water resources in India and the partner countries should aim at reducing the import of water-intensive goods from water-scarce countries and increasing import of water-intensive goods from water-abundant countries.

Decomposing US Water Withdrawal since 1950

AbstractUS water withdrawal has been remarkable since 1950, not mimicking the uninterrupted US population increase, steady real GDP growth, and rising per capita GDP. After doubling between 1950 and 1980, water withdrawals have stabilized and even decreased. Our decomposition reveals that 35%–50% of the productivity gains that let the United States produce each dollar of its GDP with less water stem from long-term structural changes between sectors (growing service economy). The remaining 50%–65% come from productivity improvements within those sectors due to improved production techniques, productivity improvements in electricity generation, and shifts toward less water-intensive products. Importing more water-intensive goods is not the main reason why US water use plateaued.

Virtual Water and an EKC for Water Pollution

This paper includes country level virtual water data in an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for water pollution. Virtual water accounts for the total amount of water required to produce a good in all stages of production. This paper constructs a water independence index, defined as the water required in domestic production divided by the amount of water required for all imported goods. Results suggest an increase in trade openness and importing water intensive goods may lower water pollution levels.

Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity: An Assessment of Alternative Scenarios

In this paper we consider some of the economic implications of climate change scenarios as described in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). By comparing potential water demand with estimates of (sustainable) water availability in different regions, we identify regions that are likely to be constrained in their future economic growth potential by the scarcity of water resources. We assess the macroeconomic impact of water scarcity under alternative allocation rules finding that, by assigning more water to sectors in which it has a higher value, shifting production to less water intensive sectors, and importing more water intensive goods, constrained regions can effectively neutralize these water related climate risks and adapt to a changing water environment. However, this adaptation effort is likely to imply some radical changes in water management policies.

Евразийское будущее России в свете чередования интеграционных и дезинтеграционных циклов

Russia needs to fit into the international geopolitical and geo-economic landscape. The formation of this landscape is largely determined by alternating integration and disintegration cycles in the development of the world economy. The second global disintegration cycle that started in 2008 is expected to last 15-20 years. It will be followed by a new integration cycle, largely dependent on China (Pax Sinensis instead of Pax Americana). This change necessitates a number of steps: a significant strengthening of the Eastern vector in the development of Russia, the formation of the Moscow-Beijing-New Delhi triangle (Evgeny Primakov's idea) as well as providing access of energy-intensive and water-intensive goods from East Siberia by railway to the Chinese and Indian markets. Russia has expressed its interest in the construction of a railway from China to India. It will allow Russia to reduce transportation costs and use a potentially heavy transit traffic for the modernization of the Transsibirian railway. These steps could radically change the role of the Baltic exclave of Russia: from being a ‘window to Europe’ the region is to turn into the westernmost point of a infrastructure axis extending from east to west. The creation of such an axis, combined with a sharp fall in transportation costs will facilitate the access of energy-intensive and water-intensive goods from the Urals and Siberia to the Asian and European markets. The Kaliningrad region is increasingly taking on business facilitating functions, which used to be performed by the Soviet Baltic republics in the past. The region can play a more important role in the formation of Eurasia stretching from Shanghai to St. Petersburg (according to Dmitry Trenin), instead of the Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok.

A Decomposition and Comparison Analysis of International Water Footprint Time Series

This paper deals with the construction, decomposition and comparison of water footprint time series in 40 countries and one aggregate macro-region, in the period 1995-2009. The analysis of the different “footpaths” allows us to investigate on the possible causes behind the time evolution of water footprints in the various countries.We notice that the physical and economic impact of economic growth on water resources has been significantly lower than what it could have been, for several reasons. First, both production and consumption patterns are shifting away from water intensive goods. Second, a large part of consumed water is actually not blue water, susceptible of alternative uses. Finally, we do not find strong evidence of gains in the economic productivity of water (dollars per water unit) in many countries, but we do find evidence of indirect efficiency gains, related to the composition of factors in the production processes.

A Decomposition and Comparison Analysis of International Water Footprint Time Series

This paper deals with the construction, decomposition and comparison of water footprint time series in 40 countries and one aggregate macro-region, in the period 1995–2009. The analysis of the different “footpaths” allows us to investigate the possible causes behind the time evolution of water footprints in the various countries. We notice that the physical and economic impact of economic growth on water resources has been significantly lower than what it could have been, for several reasons. First, both production and consumption patterns are shifting away from water-intensive goods. Second, a large part of consumed water is actually not blue water, susceptible to alternative uses. Finally, we do not find strong evidence of gains in the economic productivity of water (dollars per water unit) in many countries, but we do find evidence of indirect efficiency gains, related to a composition of factors in the production processes.

A Decomposition and Comparison Analysis of International Water Footprint Time Series

This paper deals with the construction, decomposition and comparison of water footprint time series in 40 countries and one aggregate macro-region, in the period 1995-2009. The analysis of the different “footpaths” allows us to investigate on the possible causes behind the time evolution of water footprints in the various countries. We notice that the physical and economic impact of economic growth on water resources has been significantly lower than what it could have been, for several reasons. First, both production and consumption patterns are shifting away from water intensive goods. Second, a large part of consumed water is actually not blue water, susceptible of alternative uses. Finally, we do not find strong evidence of gains in the economic productivity of water (dollars per water unit) in many countries, but we do find evidence of indirect efficiency gains, related to the composition of factors in the production processes.

Virtual Scarce Water in China

Water footprints and virtual water flows have been promoted as important indicators to characterize human-induced water consumption. However, environmental impacts associated with water consumption are largely neglected in these analyses. Incorporating water scarcity into water consumption allows better understanding of what is causing water scarcity and which regions are suffering from it. In this study, we incorporate water scarcity and ecosystem impacts into multiregional input-output analysis to assess virtual water flows and associated impacts among 30 provinces in China. China, in particular its water-scarce regions, are facing a serious water crisis driven by rapid economic growth. Our findings show that inter-regional flows of virtual water reveal additional insights when water scarcity is taken into account. Consumption in highly developed coastal provinces is largely relying on water resources in the water-scarce northern provinces, such as Xinjiang, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, thus significantly contributing to the water scarcity in these regions. In addition, many highly developed but water scarce regions, such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin, are already large importers of net virtual water at the expense of water resource depletion in other water scarce provinces. Thus, increasingly importing water-intensive goods from other water-scarce regions may just shift the pressure to other regions, but the overall water problems may still remain. Using the water footprint as a policy tool to alleviate water shortage may only work when water scarcity is taken into account and virtual water flows from water-poor regions are identified.