Surface Air Temperature Warming Research Articles

Assessing Radiative Feedbacks and Their Contribution to the Arctic Amplification Measured by Various Metrics

AbstractArctic amplification (AA), characterized by a more rapid surface air temperature (SAT) warming in the Arctic than the global average, is a major feature of global climate warming. Various metrics have been used to quantify AA based on SAT anomalies, trends, or variability, and they can yield quite different conclusions regarding the magnitude and temporal patterns of AA. This study examines and compares various AA metrics for their temporal consistency in the region north of 70°N from the early twentieth to the early 21st century using observational data and reanalysis products. We also quantify contributions of different radiative feedback mechanisms to AA based on short‐term climate variability in reanalysis and model data using the Kernel‐Gregory approach. Albedo and lapse rate feedbacks are positive and comparable, with albedo feedback being the leading contributor for all AA metrics. The net cloud feedback, which has large uncertainties, depends strongly on the data sets and AA metrics used. By quantifying the influence of internal variability on AA and related feedbacks based on global climate model ensemble simulations, we find that water vapor and cloud feedbacks are most heavily affected by internal variability.

Effect of High Nighttime Temperatures on Growth, Yield, and Quality of Two Wheat Cultivars During the Whole Growth Period.

It is a consensus that Earth's climate has been warming. The impact of global warming is asymmetric, that is, there is more substantial warming in the daily minimum surface air temperature and lower warming in the maximum surface air temperature. Previous studies have reported diurnal temperature differences greatly affecting winter wheat yield. However, only a few studies have investigated the impact of global warming on the growth and yield of winter wheat, yet the influence of night warming on quality has not been deeply evaluated. In this study, two wheat cultivars were used as materials: Jimai 44 (JM44) with strong gluten and Jimai 22 (JM22) with medium gluten, to explore the effects of high nighttime temperatures (HNTs) on the growth, yield, and quality of wheat. The results show that HNTs significantly shortened seedling emergence and anthesis periods in both cultivars compared with ambient temperatures (ATs). In addition, HNTs increased the respiration rate at anthesis and grain-filling stages, impeding wheat pollination and grain maturity. HNTs also accelerated leaf senescence and increased the number of sterile spikelets and plant height, but decreased the effective tiller number, the number of spikes per unit area, and grains per spike. As a result, the grain yield of JM22 and JM44 was decreased by 24.6% and 21.2%, respectively. Moreover, HNTs negatively influenced the flour quality of the two wheat cultivars. The current findings provide new insights into the effects of HNTs on the growth, development, yield, and quality of different wheat genotypes during the whole growth period.

Comparing MJO Intensity over the Tropical Western Pacific during Mega and Equatorial La Niña Winters

Abstract This study investigated variations in the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) behavior between two types of La Niña winters: mega and equatorial La Niñas. Results of this work show that in contrast to mega conditions, accompanied by more abundant intraseasonal column-integrated moisture anomalies over the planetary boundary layer, intensities of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies are stronger over the tropical western Pacific (WP) at MJO phases 5–6 under equatorial conditions. The occurrence of the moisture anomaly change averaged over the tropical WP is supported by a distinct moisture tendency difference. Moisture budget and multiscale interaction diagnoses underscore the pivotal effect of an area-averaged vertical gradient change in low-frequency background moisture in driving such tendency change. Considering notable MJO convection variations, the teleconnections associated with MJO phases 5–6 over East Asia (EA) were also explored, including warmer surface air temperature anomalies and stronger positive geopotential height anomalies at 200 hPa on the intraseasonal time scale under equatorial conditions. Results from a linear baroclinic model demonstrate that such teleconnection changes could be effectively explained by the linear response to the MJO’s diabatic heating anomaly. Roles of mean state and MJO itself variations in the linear response change are also discussed. These findings provide novel insights into MJO activity and offer potential improvements for subseasonal forecasting in EA. Significance Statement The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and MJO has been extensively explored recently. However, variations in the MJO behavior and its climate effects under mega and equatorial La Niña winters have not been thoroughly investigated. In this work, we utilized reanalysis datasets and an idealized linear baroclinic model to address these questions. We observed more robust and abundant intraseasonal convection activity and planetary boundary layer–integrated moisture anomaly averaged over the tropical WP at MJO phases 5–6 under equatorial conditions than mega conditions, which is closely linked with the vertical gradient change in low-frequency background moisture. Additionally, MJO-related teleconnections also exhibit some changes. This work may provide a new perspective on understanding the relationship between the MJO and ENSO and offer potential improvements for the subseasonal forecast.

Detection and attribution for land surface air temperature warming in China based on a perfect model selection analysis of optimal fingerprint strategy

Detection and attribution for land surface air temperature warming in China based on a perfect model selection analysis of optimal fingerprint strategy

Possible factors responsible for the withdrawal process of the South Asian high during summer-to-winter transition

This study investigates the possible factors responsible for interannual variations in the withdrawal process of the South Asian high (SAH) during its summer-to-winter transition. The SAH is more obviously intensified from July to September and lasts longer over the Tibetan Plateau in late-withdrawal years (L_SAH) than early-withdrawal years (E_SAH). The L_SAH tends to appear during the stage when an El Niño has faded away and a La Niña begins to emerge, with warm SST anomalies occurring over the northern Indian Ocean and tropical northwestern Pacific, and cold anomalies existing across the equatorial central eastern Pacific. The influences of these anomalous SST variations on the SAH's withdrawal process take place primarily through two pathways. On the one hand, warm SST anomalies over the northern Indian Ocean and tropical western Pacific can warm the local tropospheric column above via a Matsunuo-Gill response to moisture adjustment and subsequently lead to an intensified and later withdrawal of the SAH. On the other hand, accompanied by warm SST anomalies, an abnormally intensified anticyclone is observed over the northwestern Pacific that shifts southwestwards and brings abundant rainfall to the region between the Yellow River and Yangtze River in July and August via southwesterly water vapor transport. Consequently, latent heating will generate positive geopotential height anomalies on its northwest side in the upper troposphere and ultimately result in an intensified and later withdrawal of the SAH. In addition, warm surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau in September also plays a significant role in lengthening the maintenance of the SAH over the Tibetan Plateau. However, the E_SAH tends be weak and lasts for a shorter period over the Tibetan Plateau. The E_SAH tends to occur together with a developing El Niño event, with cold SST anomalies existing over the northern Indian Ocean and tropical northwestern Pacific. Negative SST anomalies, together with a weak and northeastward-shifting subtropical western Pacific high, result in a weak SAH and quicken its withdrawal process from the Tibetan Plateau via cooling the local tropospheric column and reducing rainfall over East Asia, respectively.

Variability of spring ecosystem water use efficiency in Northeast Asia and its linkage to the Polar-Eurasia pattern

Given that water use efficiency (WUE) is an important indicator to measure the trade-off between carbon uptake and water consumption within the ecosystem, better understanding the variation of ecosystem WUE and related driving factors is of great interest. In this study, the variability of spring ecosystem WUE in Northeast Asia (NEA) was investigated. The results show that its primary mode exhibits a monosign variation. This mode is directly controlled by the variability of gross primary productivity. The climate conditions also play remarkable roles, featuring that warm surface air temperature (high soil moisture) favors enhanced ecosystem WUE in northern (southern) NEA. Further analysis reveals that the Polar-Eurasia (POL) pattern can significantly impact the variability of spring ecosystem WUE in NEA through changing surface air temperature and soil moisture. When the POL pattern lies in the positive phase during spring, anticyclonic circulation anomalies with an equivalent barotropic structure prevail over northern NEA, concurrent with anomalous easterlies over southern NEA and a weakening of the East Asian jet (EAJ). Accordingly, anomalous downward motion is introduced over northern NEA, resulting in higher surface air temperature which is beneficial for the increase of local ecosystem WUE. Meanwhile, the easterly anomalies help to increase water vapor transport into southern NEA and the weakened EAJ can induce anomalous ascending over southern NEA, favoring the increase of precipitation and hence soil moisture, which consequently enhances the ecosystem WUE in southern NEA.

Tonga volcanic eruption triggered anomalous Arctic warming in early 2022

On 15 January 2022, the submarine volcano on Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Island erupted and injected a small amount of SO2 but an unprecedent amount of water vapor into the stratosphere. The impact of Tonga eruption on climate was dynamically simulated using a fully coupled climate prediction system FIO-CPS v2.0 by considering both SO2 and water vapor injections into the stratosphere, which is the first attempt to incorporate the volcanic water vapor injection in a climate prediction system to evaluate its effect on surface climate response. Model results indicated that the surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic region was significantly warmer in early 2022 as a response to the co-injection of SO2 and water vapor from Tonga eruption, although its effect on global mean SAT was found to be insignificant. In February 2022, the average warming anomaly in the Arctic area reached up to 1.1 °C, with zonal mean warming of 2.0 °C near the North Pole. The Tonga eruptions induced anomalous heat transport which primarily contributed to the Arctic warming in February. However, it had a cooling effect on the Arctic area in January and March. In addition to heat transport, the eruption also triggered anomalous northward transport of water vapor. This led to an increase in the water vapor content, which further enhanced the downward longwave radiation and cloud-radiative feedback over the Arctic region, ultimately contributing to the Arctic SAT warming in early 2022. In the simulation only SO2 injection was considered without water vapor injection, the pattern of SAT response showed warming over the Eurasian continent and cooling in the north over Arctic Ocean, which is opposite to that in the simulation with co-injection of SO2 and water vapor. This indicated that volcanic water vapor injection of Tonga eruption played a dominant role in the Arctic warming. Consequently, submarine volcano should receive more attention due to its potential climate effects, especially when it involves significant water vapor releases.

An Approach for Selecting Observationally-Constrained Global Climate Model Ensembles for Regional Climate Impacts and Adaptation Studies in Canada

Given the growing number of global climate models (GCMs) with simulations available for impacts and adaptation studies, methods have been introduced to select models that are ‘fit-for-purpose’. This study applies a GCM selection process to historical and future climate projections from 38 and 43 GCMs contributing to the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). Models are selected based on historical performance, with a further selection step targeted at reducing interdependencies between closely related model variants and ensemble members. Ten performance measures are calculated based on climatological statistics (mean, standard deviation, and seasonal cycle) of three climate variables (precipitation, sea level pressure, and surface air temperature (SAT)), as well as SAT warming trend for the 1985–2014 period. Performance is assessed over Canada and six Canadian sub-regions, at both annual and seasonal timescales. As initial-condition members and minor variants of GCMs are not independent, a representative democracy approach – using ensemble averages of initial-condition members and including only the best performance model among minor variants – is employed to reduce redundancy in selected subsets. There is a strong correlation between recent warming trends and future warming projections across Canada; therefore, observed SAT warming trends are recognized as important observational-constraints to aid in model selection. By removing “hot models” that fail to reproduce the historical SAT warming trend, a representative subset of observationally-constrained GCMs projects lower annual SAT than model democracy (using all model runs assuming independence and equal plausibility) over Canada and six Canadian sub-regions for 2071–2100.

Can global warming bring more dust?

In the late twentieth century, global mean surface air temperature especially on land is continuously warming. Our analyses show that the global mean of dust increased since 1980, using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis version 2 for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) reanalysis data. This variation of global dust is mainly contributed by the dust increase outside of dust core areas (i.e. high dust mass concentration region). The causes to result in global dust variations are explored. In dust core areas, surface wind is the primary driving factor for surface dust, both of which show no remarkable trends of increase or decrease since 1980. In areas outside of the core areas, especially in arid and semi-arid areas in North and Middle Asia, surface air temperature warming is the primary impact factor causing the dust increase. An increase in surface air temperature is accompanied by enhancement of atmospheric instability which can trigger more upward motion and bring more dust. All 9 Earth System Models (ESMs) for the Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) reproduce the reasonable spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of dust in the present day. But only a few models such as BCC-ESM1 and GFDL-ESM4 simulate the increasing trend of dust similar to MERRA-2. While the primary impact of wind in dust core areas, and surface temperature outside of the core areas, especially in middle to high latitudes in Eurasian continent, are presented in most ESMs.

The symmetry and structural characteristics of the core of the Arabian Subtropical Anticyclone and associated surface climatology over Arabia: A spatial perspective

The Arabian High/subtropical Anticyclone (ASA) plays an essential role in regulating weather and climate in the Arabian Peninsula (Arabia) and adjacent countries. However, knowledge of the ASA and related surface conditions in Arabia is limited. Most of our knowledge comes from short-term case studies of weather events. The main goals of this climatic research are to (1) address the spatial structural and symmetry characteristics (shape, direction, intensity, and size) of the ASA core centers for Sep to Mar; and (2) examine related seven month summaries of surface weather characteristics for precipitation, temperature, wind, and particulates with diameters <2.5 μm (PM2.5) over Arabia.Based on a K-means clustering analysis, the monthly core centers of the ASAs at 850 hPa were identified and shape and direction parameters were quantified using the standard deviational ellipse technique. ASAs migrate southeastward across Arabia from Sep to Feb with increases in the average size and decreases in mean heights. Shapes of core centers of the ASAs tended to be elliptical with three dominant orientations. Using a novel spatial–synoptic framework based on a longitudinal-latitudinal positional climatology of the ASA, the ASA has five spatial composites which correspond with different surface climatic conditions. When the ASA is positioned north or northwest of the mean (North and Northwest composites), much of Arabia experiences warm surface air temperature anomalies and negative precipitation anomalies. Both composites showed an increased sensible heat flux into the air over Arabia with the process forming a warmer environment that dries the lower troposphere. The South, East, and Southeast spatial composites were linked with notable negative temperature anomalies and are associated with smaller energy fluxes. These cooler conditions were more pronounced during the South and Southeast composites and were accompanied by positive precipitation anomalies. Dust events, defined by higher PM2.5 amounts, corresponded well with higher surface wind speeds, when the ASA migrates south or southeast from its climatological mean composite.

A Dynamical Systems Perspective to Characterize the El Niño Diversity in Spatiotemporal Patterns

El Niño is the long-lasting anomalous warming of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface air temperature (SAT) over the tropical Pacific. Each El Niño event has its unique impact on the overlaying atmosphere, where the warming exhibits diversity in spatiotemporal patterns. It still remains an open question for discriminating the El Niño diversity, since the single area-averaging SST index often fails to distinguish the impact of the event diversity, which is partially due to the nonlinear and non-uniform variations of the warming patterns. Here, we introduced the Dynamical Systems metrics (DSMs) to measure instantaneous dimensions and persistence of the SAT warming patterns over the tropical Pacific. Our results show that different SAT warming patterns can be discriminated by their corresponding values of dimension and persistence, then the central Pacific and eastern Pacific El Niño events can be discriminated by DSM. Particularly, through the analyses of El Niño events, we can interpret the physical meaning of DSM parameters applied to the space-time SAT field: an instantaneous dimension reflects whether the sub-regions of the SAT field are consistently varying and to what degree the spatial pattern of anomalies is homogeneous, while the instantaneous persistence indicates how long an anomalous SAT pattern can be maintained. This work analyzes the spatiotemporal variability of El Niño from a dynamical system perspective, and DSM may also serve as a useful tool to study extreme events related to SST anomalies.

The substantial role of May soil temperature over Central Asia for summer surface air temperature variation and prediction over Northeastern China

The slowly varying soil temperature can exert local and nonlocal influences on regional climate system, and may thus provide a critical source of subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction. In this study, we identify that soil temperature in May over the key region of Central Asia (42 °N–50 °N, 62 °E–80°E, KRCA) from Noah, Mosaic, CLM and ERA-interim datasets is closely linked to variations of the surface air temperature, daily maximum temperature and hot days over Northeastern China in summer (June–July–August), with correlation coefficients of regional average detrended time series ranging from 0.42 to 0.54, and all significant at the 99% confidence level for the period of 1979–2018. The possible physical mechanism behind the substantial downstream impacts of soil temperature over Central Asia are explored via diagnostical analysis combined with regional climate model experiments. Warmer soil temperature in May over the KRCA can keep to the summer and cause positive anomalies of geopotential height in summer over Northeastern China through the Rossby wave propagation, and associated stronger subsidence warming, less cloud cover, more solar radiation reaching the surface, higher planetary boundary layer, and stronger thermal advection at 850 hPa, which provide favorable conditions for warmer surface air temperature particularly in the daytime as well as more hot days. This study further reveals that soil temperature over Central Asia in May makes important contribution to prediction of summer surface air temperature, daily maximum temperature and hot days over Northeastern China in terms of regional average time series and spatial patterns. Our findings highlight the previously-unknown substantial role of antecedent soil temperature condition over Central Asia for summer surface air temperature variation and prediction over Northeastern China.

Warming Pattern over the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes in Boreal Summer 1979–2020

Abstract Significant surface air temperature warming during summer 1979–2020 is not uniformly distributed in the northern midlatitudes over land but rather is confined to several longitudinal sectors including Europe, central Siberia and Mongolia, and both coasts of North America. These hot spots are accompanied by a chain of high pressure ridges from an anomalous, circumglobal Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. From reanalysis data and several baseline experiments from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we find that the circulation trend pattern is associated with fluctuations of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. The phase shift of AMV in the 1990s is particularly noteworthy for accelerating warming averaged over the northern midlatitude land. The amplitude of the observed trend in both surface air temperature and the upper-level geopotential height generally falls beyond the range of multidecadal trends simulated by the CMIP6 preindustrial control runs, supporting the likelihood that anthropogenic forcing played a critical role in the observed trend. On the other hand, the fidelity of the simulated low-frequency modes of variability and their teleconnections, especially on multidecadal time scales, is difficult to assess because of the relatively short observational records. Our mechanistic modeling results indicate that synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction is a key to the formation of the anomalous wave train but how the multidecadal modes can modulate the synoptic eddies through atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions remains poorly understood. This gap in our knowledge makes it challenging to quantify the roles of the low-frequency modes and external forcings in causing the observed multidecadal trends.

Trends in surface equivalent potential temperature: A more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes

Trends in surface air temperature (SAT) are a common metric for global warming. Using observations and observationally driven models, we show that a more comprehensive metric for global warming and weather extremes is the trend in surface equivalent potential temperature (Thetae_sfc) since it also accounts for the increase in atmospheric humidity and latent energy. From 1980 to 2019, while SAT increased by 0.79[Formula: see text], Thetae_sfc increased by 1.48[Formula: see text] globally and as much as 4[Formula: see text] in the tropics. The increase in water vapor is responsible for the factor of 2 difference between SAT and Thetae_sfc trends. Thetae_sfc increased more uniformly (than SAT) between the midlatitudes of the southern hemisphere and the northern hemisphere, revealing the global nature of the heating added by greenhouse gases (GHGs). Trends in heat extremes and extreme precipitation are correlated strongly with the global/tropical trends in Thetae_sfc. The tropical amplification of Thetae_sfc is as large as the arctic amplification of SAT, accounting for the observed global positive trends in deep convection and a 20% increase in heat extremes. With unchecked GHG emissions, while SAT warming can reach 4.8[Formula: see text] by 2100, the global mean Thetae_sfc can increase by as much as 12[Formula: see text], with corresponding increases of 12[Formula: see text] (median) to 24[Formula: see text] (5% of grid points) in land surface temperature extremes, a 14- to 30-fold increase in frequency of heat extremes, a 40% increase in the energy available for tropical deep convection, and an up to 60% increase in extreme precipitation.

Influences of North Pacific anomalies on Indian summer monsoon onset

AbstractThis study finds a significantly decreasing (increasing) trend (1979–2018) of sea level pressure (SLP) over coastal East Asia (far North Pacific) during May and June, which resembles the negative (positive) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (North Pacific Oscillation, NPO)‐like pattern. Thus, we examine May composite differences between early and late Indian summer monsoon (ISM) onset years. Sea surface temperature (SST) differences show that early (late) ISM onset is accompanied by a negative (positive) PDO‐like state. Whereas, in SLP, an intense low pressure over northwestern India, the Arabian Sea to Southeast Asia (far North Pacific, East Asia) is associated with the early (late) onset. During the early onset, warm surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over southeast Russia propagate towards Central Asia to the Middle East and the northwest Indian subcontinent, strengthening the land‐sea thermal contrast, which subsequently strengthens the monsoon low. We thus show how the positive NPO, negative PDO, and high spring Bering Sea ice link with the SAT anomalies. In the early onset, more wave packets generated in response to these North Pacific anomalies propagate towards the Atlantic and European region, reaching and converging over the northwest Indian subcontinent. The warm surface anomalies possibly draw eastward‐propagating waves towards northwest India, thus intensifying the monsoon low there. Meanwhile, in the CAM5 PDO simulation, we observe a similar pattern of atmospheric responses, where warm SAT anomalies associated with stationary Rossby wave trains propagate from the North Pacific towards the North Atlantic to Central Asia and the northwest Indian subcontinent, strengthening the monsoon low. Terefore, our study highlights the crucial role of the North Pacific anomalies in modulating the ISM onset processes via atmospheric pathways.

Linkages of surface air temperature variations over Central Asia with large-scale climate patterns

In this study, we investigate the dominant modes of surface air temperature variations of the cold season (from November through to the next March) and the warm season (from May to September) over Central Asia, and their associations with large-scale climate patterns for the period of 1979–2016. The first two modes of the cold season surface air temperature (CSAT) over Central Asia, obtained by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, feature the monopole structure and the north-south dipole pattern, respectively. For the warm season surface air temperature (WSAT), the leading two EOF modes are characterized by the homogenous structure and the northwest-southeast seesaw pattern, respectively. Further analysis indicates that the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies play key roles in the CSAT and WSAT variations over Central Asia. The CSAT variation over Central Asia is closely related to the Scandinavia pattern (SCAND) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), while the WSAT variation is tightly tied to the East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern (EAWR) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These large-scale climate patterns tend to cause the CSAT and WSAT anomalies over Central Asia via their effects on regional geopotential heights, warming advections, and other processes. Positive geopotential height anomalies and increased downward solar radiations generally favor positive SAT anomalies over Central Asia. Moreover, the warm advections are also conducive to the formation of positive SAT anomalies over Central Asia. Our findings are expected to facilitate the improvement of understanding and predicting the CSAT and WSAT variations over Central Asia.

Summer Air Temperature for the Greater Yellowstone Ecoregion (770–2019 CE) Over 1,250 Years

AbstractProjected warming of global surface air temperatures will further exacerbate droughts, wildfires, and other agents of ecosystem stress. We use latewood blue intensity from high‐elevation Picea engelmannii to reconstruct late‐summer maximum air temperature for the Greater Yellowstone Ecoregion (GYE) spanning 770–2019 CE. Using a robust regression model (r2 = 0.60), the 1,250‐year reconstruction reveals 2016 as the single‐warmest year and the warming trend since ca. 2000 as the most intense. The Medieval Climate Anomaly contained the highest‐ranking warm event (1050–1070 CE) and was characterized by substantial multidecadal variability rather than a period of prolonged, homogeneous warming. We document regional expression of past warm and cool events, such as an anomalously warm period spanning the fifteenth to sixteenth centuries, and the Maunder and Dalton minima of the Little Ice Age. Summer temperature variability across the GYE shows multicentennial agreement with trends in solar irradiance, volcanic activity, snowpack, and other regional‐to‐hemispheric temperature records.

Climate network approach reveals the modes of CO2 concentration to surface air temperature.

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is expected to be the main factor of global warming. The relation between CO2 concentrations and surface air temperature (SAT) has been found related to Rossby waves based on a multi-layer complex network approach. However, the significant relations between CO2 and SAT occur in the South Hemisphere that is not that much influenced by human activities may offer not enough information to formulate targeted carbon reduction policies. Here, we address it by removing the effects of the Rossby waves to reconstruct CO2 concentrations and SAT multi-layer complex network. We uncover that the CO2 concentrations are strongly associated with the surrounding SAT regions. The influential regions of CO2 on SAT occur over eastern Asia, West Asia, North Africa, the coast of North American, and Western Europe. It is shown that CO2 over Siberia in phase with the SAT variability in eastern East Asia. Indeed, CO2 concentration variability is causing effects on the recent warming of SAT in some middle latitude regions. Furthermore, sensitive parameters that CO2 impacts SAT of top 15 carbon emissions countries have been identified. These countries are significantly responsible for global warming, giving implications for carbon emissions reductions. The methodology and results presented here not only facilitate further research in regions of increased sensitivity to the warming resulting from CO2 concentrations but also can formulate strategies and countermeasures for carbon emission and carbon reduction.

Summer climate variability over Korea in association with diverse features of ENSO evolution

This study investigates the summer climate variability over Korea that is associated with diverse features of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. Four different ENSO evolution features were analyzed, and the related Korean climate variability during July and August are investigated. The two evolution phases in which El Nino transitions into La Nina and El Nino develops from a neutral state show roughly similar circulation features in affecting the Korean summer climate, but with opposite signs. During the transition of El Nino into La Nina (after El Nino develops from a neutral state), the positive (negative) western North Pacific anticyclonic circulation anomaly directly affects Korea in August, producing a significant warm (cold) surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly in Korea. Notably, the SAT that occurs in July generally exhibits an opposite tendency to that of August in Korea, displaying subseasonal variations. However, the persistent phases of La Nina and El Nino exhibit distinctive features from the two transition phases mentioned. During the persistent La Nina phase, the Pacific-Japan like atmospheric circulation pattern affects Korea, showing a significant warm SAT anomaly over Korea in July, and a roughly similar situation with opposite signs is observed in the persistent El Nino phase. In these cases, the Korean SAT in August exhibits similar anomalies to July. The distinctive variability in the summer climate of Korea during the diverse ENSO evolution phases presented in this study provides a statistical basis for understanding the Korean summer climate in relation to ENSO.

Seasonal Dependent Impact of Ice Cloud Longwave Scattering on the Polar Climate

AbstractMost climate models neglect cloud longwave (LW) scattering because scattering is considered negligible compared to strong LW absorption by clouds and greenhouse gases. While this rationale is valid for simulating extrapolar regions, it is questionable for the polar regions, where the atmosphere is dry and hence has weak absorption, and ice clouds that have strong scattering capability frequently occur. Using the slab‐ocean Community Earth System Model, we show that ice cloud LW scattering can warm winter surface air temperature by 0.8–1.8 K in the Arctic and 1.3–1.9 K in the Antarctic, while this warming becomes much weaker in polar summer. Such scattering effect cannot be correctly assessed when sea surface temperature and sea ice are prescribed as this effect is manifested through a surface‐atmosphere coupling. Cloud LW scattering is a necessity for the correct simulation of polar climate and surface radiation budget, especially in the winter.