Ocean Warming Research Articles

Habitat characteristics shaping zoantharians’ distribution at intertidal habitats of the Canary Islands

Ocean warming is facilitating the proliferation of zoantharians worldwide due to their thermophilic affinities. However, other anthropogenic factors, such as declining water quality, have been appointed to favour the occurrence of zoantharians dominated areas and barrens. Subtropical and tropical intertidal habitats are especially vulnerable to zoantharians outbreaks due to the progressive increase in ocean temperature and because it is where most human pressure is concentrated. The aim of this study was to evaluate the abundance of intertidal zoantharians populations, related to habitat characteristics (rugosity and submerged substrate) and the presence of other benthic organisms, such as sessile invertebrates and macroalgae. Number and coverage of zoantharian colonies were recorded in transects (20 × 4 m) along 25 intertidal rocky platforms of the Canarian Archipelago, and photographic techniques in quadrats were used to examine the relationships between the percentage of substrate cover of zoantharians, macroalgae and sessile invertebrates by means of correlations analyses. Results indicated that high levels of rugosity favour the abundance and coverage of Palythoa aff. clavata and Zoanthus pulchellus, and the proportion of submerged substrate was also important in determining Zoanthus coverages. The presence of extensive macroalgae communities was seen to reduce zoantharian coverages, being the only sessile organisms that were able to outcompete them for space in the Canary Islands. Thus, this study provided valuable information about patterns of abundances and coverages of intertidal zoantharians useful for future monitoring of intertidal populations of zoantharians in Canary Islands and their interaction with surrounding marine organisms.

The global distribution and climate resilience of marine heterotrophic prokaryotes

Heterotrophic Bacteria and Archaea (prokaryotes) are a major component of marine food webs and global biogeochemical cycles. Yet, there is limited understanding about how prokaryotes vary across global environmental gradients, and how their global abundance and metabolic activity (production and respiration) may be affected by climate change. Using global datasets of prokaryotic abundance, cell carbon and metabolic activity we reveal that mean prokaryotic biomass varies by just under 3-fold across the global surface ocean, while total prokaryotic metabolic activity increases by more than one order of magnitude from polar to tropical coastal and upwelling regions. Under climate change, global prokaryotic biomass in surface waters is projected to decline ~1.5% per °C of warming, while prokaryotic respiration will increase ~3.5% ( ~ 0.85 Pg C yr−1). The rate of prokaryotic biomass decline is one-third that of zooplankton and fish, while the rate of increase in prokaryotic respiration is double. This suggests that future, warmer oceans could be increasingly dominated by prokaryotes, diverting a growing proportion of primary production into microbial food webs and away from higher trophic levels as well as reducing the capacity of the deep ocean to sequester carbon, all else being equal.

Warming of mid-latitude North Atlantic Sea surface temperature strengthens the daily variability of winter PM2.5 in eastern China

Abstract Climate factors, in addition to human activities, are acknowledged to exert a notable influence on the synoptic PM2.5 variations over eastern China in extensive case studies. Based on observed daily PM2.5 concentrations data, this study reveals the enhanced daily variability (DV) of PM2.5 concentrations over eastern China and identifies its association with mid-latitude sea surface temperature anomalies over the North Atlantic. The dominant daily mode of PM2.5 concentrations identified through empirical orthogonal function analysis accounts for 43.75% of the total variance, with its DV experienced a significant enhancement from 1979 to 2019. The identified enhancement is attributed to the intensified wave train propagation along the mid-latitudes on a time scale of 10–30 d. The eastward propagation of the identified wave train can expose eastern China to recurrent influences of cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies, resulting in an initial increase and subsequent decrease in PM2.5 concentrations. Statistical analysis and dynamic diagnostics show that the warming of the mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean enhances the wave train at its source through the local energy exchange, and ultimately leads to an increased DV of PM2.5 concentrations.

Precipitation Characteristics and Mechanisms over Sri Lanka against the Background of the Western Indian Ocean: 1981–2020

In the current environment of climate change, the precipitation situation of marine islands is particularly valued. So, this study explores precipitation characteristics and mechanisms over Sri Lanka in the background of the western Indian Ocean using satellite and reanalysis datasets based on 40 years (from 1981 to 2020). The results show that the highest precipitation occurs between October and December, accounting for 46.3% of the entire year. The Indian Ocean sea surface temperature warming after 2002 significantly influences precipitation patterns. Particularly during the Second Inter-Monsoon, the western Indian Ocean warming induces an east–west zonal sea surface temperature gradient, leading to low-level circulation and westerly wind anomalies. This, in turn, results in increased precipitation in Sri Lanka between October and December. This study used the Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to study nine extreme precipitation indices, identifying a significant upward trend in extreme precipitation events in the Jaffna, arid northern Sri Lanka, peaking on 9 November 2021. This extreme event is due to the influence of weather systems like the Siberian High and intense convective activities, transporting substantial moisture to Jaffna from the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal during winter. The findings highlight the impact of sea surface temperature warming anomalies in the western Indian Ocean and extreme precipitation events, anticipated to be more accentuated during Sri Lanka’s monsoon season. This research provides valuable insights into the variability of tropical precipitation, offering a scientific basis for the sustainable development of marine islands.

Ocean warming and novel species interactions boost growth and persistence of range‐extending tropical fishes but challenge that of sympatric temperate species in temperate waters

AbstractAimClimate change can have a broad range of impacts on the physiology and behaviour of animals. These effects can be mediated by the presence of other species in the community, but current forecasts of species responses to climate change largely ignore biological interactions. This is particularly true for novel interactions between range‐extending and native species, as this is often considered as noise and excluded from predictive models. Here we simulate how a tropical range‐extending and a local temperate fish species respond to the independent and combined effects of future ocean warming (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and novel ecological interactions in temperate ecosystems.LocationEast coast of Australia, along a ~ 2,000 km latitudinal gradient in a global climate warming hotspot.TaxonAbudefduf vaigiensis (tropical) and Atypicthys strigatus (temperate) fishes.MethodsWe use a dynamic energy budget model to simulate the length growth (i.e., increases in body length of individuals over time) and population persistence of juveniles of a tropical and a temperate fish species that form mixed‐species shoals, under different climate scenarios with and without the effects of novel ecological interactions.ResultsOur model forecasts that length growth of the juvenile tropical species will increase under ocean warming across subtropical to temperate regions. This increased length growth will be more drastic in temperate regions than in the subtropics, as winter warming will allow the tropical species to overwinter more frequently and show positive growth throughout the year. In contrast, warmer summer temperatures in the subtropics will likely exceed the optimal temperature of the juvenile temperate species at their trailing edge, resulting in reduced length growth under climate warming. Novel species interactions increased length growth of the juvenile tropical species but did not affect its winter or summer survival. In contrast, novel species interactions with tropical species were forecast to reduce length growth of the juvenile temperate species.Main ConclusionsOur study suggests that for some coastal fish species future warming will likely reverse body size dominance between temperate and tropical fish species, with increased novel interactions in temperate ecosystems (due to range extensions) but decreased novel interactions in the subtropics (due to range contractions). Novel species interactions and warming effects on body size and species survival are likely to reshuffle temperate fish communities and their competitive interactions.

Temperature-dependent responses and trophic interaction strengths of a predatory marine gastropod and rock oyster under ocean warming

Predator-prey interactions are important in shaping ecosystem structure. Consequently, impacts of accelerating global warming on predators will have notable implications. Effects are likely to be particularly marked for tropical organisms which are anticipated to be sensitive to further thermal stress. Here, we investigated effects of future ocean warming on the predatory dogwhelk Reishia clavigera and its predation of Saccostrea cucullata. Mortality of the predators rapidly increased under the extreme elevated temperature, while those exposed to moderate elevated temperature displayed similar mortality as the ambient. Predators that survived moderate temperature increases altered their oxygen consumption patterns, increased average feeding rates, and functional responses, although condition index and energy reserves were unchanged. Overall, we show extreme ocean warming scenarios can remove predators and their consumption of prey from an ecosystem, whereas moderate warming can intensify predator-prey interactions. Such temperature-dependent alterations to predator-prey interactions would lead to fundamental changes of ecosystem structure as the ocean warms.

Role of Strong Sea Surface Temperature Diurnal Variation in Triggering the Summer Monsoon Onset Over the Bay of Bengal in a Climate Model

AbstractThe earliest Asian summer monsoon onset (SMO) occurs in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), heralding the coming of the rainy season. In late April or early May, the strong sea surface temperature (SST) diurnal variation accompanied by ocean surface warming triggers the SMO. However, this observed diurnal cycle intensity cannot be reasonably simulated by state‐of‐the‐art climate models, resulting in a spurious delayed SMO. To address this issue, the SST diurnal cycle parameterized by a diagnostic sublayer scheme was incorporated into a climate model named FIO‐ESM v2.0. The large diurnal amplitude of SST contributes to surface warming and changes atmospheric circulation. Consequently, the high‐pressure anomaly at high levels and an inverted trough at low levels promote more convective activity, triggering an earlier SMO. Our findings improve the ability of climate models in simulating the evolution of the Asian monsoon system.

Understanding Balanophyllia regia Distribution in the Canary Islands: Effects of Environmental Factors and Methodologies for Future Monitoring

The future of marine ecosystems is at risk due to climate change and other human impacts. Specifically, due to ocean warming, some tropical species are expanding their populations while populations of temperate species are in regression, making the establishment of conservation measures imperative to maintain local biodiversity. In this study we establish a baseline on the distribution and abundance of the temperate coral Balanophyllia regia from the Canary Islands. We found that the main environmental factors determining B. regia’s distribution and abundance were sea surface temperature and hydrodynamic conditions. Areas under large wave action and colder environments enhanced this warm-temperate species’ development. Since its metabolic performance depends exclusively on the surrounding environment, we also propose a methodology to potentially monitor climate change on coastal habitats through this azooxanthellate calcified coral. Results of a tagging experiment showed that a concentration of 20 mg/mL of calcein during 6 h might be enough to in situ label polyps of B. regia without compromising corallite survival. Long-term monitoring of population abundances and growth rates of B. regia through calcein tagging will allow us to identify alterations in local ecosystems early and focus future conservation investments on the most vulnerable areas with higher ecological and economic value.

Path analysis reveals combined winter climate and pollution effects on the survival of a marine top predator.

Marine ecosystems are experiencing growing pressure from multiple threats caused by human activities, with far-reaching consequences for marine food webs. Determining the effects of multiple stressors is complex, in part, as they can affect different aspects of biological organisation (behaviour, individual traits and demographic rates). Determining the combined effects of stressors, through different biological pathways, is key to predict the consequences for the viability of populations threatened by global change. Due to their position in the food chain, top predators such as seabirds are considered more sensitive to environmental changes. Climate change is affecting the prey resources available for seabirds, through bottom-up effects, while organic pollutants can bioaccumulate in food chains with the greatest impacts on top predators. However, knowledge of their combined effects on population dynamics is scarce. Using a path analysis, we quantify the effects of climate change and pollution on the survival of adult great black-backed gulls, both directly and through effects of individuals' body mass. Warmer ocean temperatures in gulls' winter foraging areas in the North Sea were correlated with higher survival, potentially explained by shifts in prey availability associated with global climate change. We also found support for indirect negative effects of organochlorines, highly toxic pollutants to seabirds, on survival, which acted, in part, through a negative effect on body mass. The results from this path analysis highlight how, even for such long-lived species where variance in survival tends to be limited, two stressors still have had a marked influence on adult survival and illustrate the potential of path models to improve predictions of population variability under multiple stressors.

Meta-analyses reveal climate change impacts on an ecologically and economically significant oyster in Australia

Meta-analyses reveal climate change impacts on an ecologically and economically significant oyster in Australia

Climate change impacts on a sedimentary coast—a regional synthesis from genes to ecosystems

Climate change effects on coastal ecosystems vary on large spatial scales, but can also be highly site dependent at the regional level. The Wadden Sea in the south-eastern North Sea is warming faster than many other temperate coastal areas, with surface seawater temperature increasing by almost 2 °C over the last 60 years, nearly double the global ocean mean increase. Climate warming is accompanied by rising sea levels, which have increased by approximately 2 mm yr−1 over the last 120 years. For this sedimentary coast, the predicted acceleration of sea-level rise will have profound effects on tidal dynamics and bathymetry in the area. This paper synthesises studies of the effects of ocean warming and sea level rise in the northern Wadden Sea, largely based on research conducted at the Wadden Sea Station Sylt of the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research. An increasing rate of sea level rise above a critical threshold will lead to coastal erosion and changes in sediment composition, and may cause the transition from a tidal to lagoon-like environment as tidal flats submerge. This involves changes to coastal morphology, and the decline of important habitats such as muddy tidal flats, salt marshes and seagrass meadows, as well as their ecological services (e.g. carbon sequestration). Ocean warming affects plankton dynamics and phenology, as well as benthic community structure by hampering cold-adapted but facilitating warm-adapted species. The latter consist mostly of introduced non-native species originating from warmer coasts, with some epibenthic species acting as ecosystem engineers that create novel habitats on the tidal flats. Warming also changes interactions between species by decoupling existing predator–prey dynamics, as well as forming new interactions in which mass mortalities caused by parasites and pathogens can play an understudied but essential role. However, Wadden Sea organisms can adapt to changing abiotic and biotic parameters via genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, which can also be inherited across generations (transgenerational plasticity), enabling faster plastic responses to future conditions. Important research advances have been made using next-generation molecular tools (-omics), mesocosm experiments simulating future climate scenarios, modelling approaches (ecological network analysis), and internet-based technologies for data collection and archiving. By synthesising these climate change impacts on multiple levels of physical and biological organisation in the northern Wadden Sea, we reveal knowledge gaps that need to be addressed by future investigations and comparative studies in other regions in order to implement management, mitigation and restoration strategies to preserve the uniqueness of this ecosystem of global importance.

Responses of Lower-Stratospheric Water Vapor to Regional Sea Surface Temperature Changes

Abstract The variability of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) plays a crucial role in stratospheric chemistry and Earth’s energy budget, strongly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we systematically investigate the response of lower-SWV (LSWV) to regional sea surface temperature changes using idealized SST patch experiments within a climate model. The results indicate that LSWV is most sensitive to tropical sea surface temperature, with the strongest response occurring in late autumn and early winter. Warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific (WP) leads to stratospheric drying, while warming of the tropical Atlantic (TA) and eastern Pacific results in stratospheric moistening. The drying impact on LSWV due to warming in the western Pacific Ocean exceeds the wet effect in the eastern Pacific Ocean by approximately 60%. The variations in tropical SST influence LSWV by modulating the temperature at the tropical tropopause layer, especially over the Indo-Pacific warm pool through Matsuno–Gill responses. Furthermore, the response of LSWV to tropical SST changes exhibits nonnegligible nonlinearity, which indicates the importance of nonlinearity in determining the LSWV response to global surface warming. Significance Statement In this study, we explore how changes in the temperature of the ocean’s surface can affect the amount of water vapor in the stratosphere, a layer of Earth’s atmosphere. Understanding this relationship is important because water vapor in the stratosphere can influence both our climate and the chemistry of the atmosphere. Using a climate model, we found that water vapor in the lower stratosphere is especially responsive to temperature changes in tropical ocean regions. Specifically, when the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific get warmer, the stratosphere tends to get drier. On the other hand, warming in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific leads to more moisture in the stratosphere. The way these changes add up is complex and not simply a sum of individual parts, especially in tropical warm pool regions. Our findings have implications for how we understand and predict the impacts of climate change on stratospheric water vapor.

Contrasting Discrepancy in the Sea Level Budget Between the North and South Atlantic Ocean Since 2016

AbstractThe discrepancy in the observed global mean sea level budget increased significantly since 2016, but the budget discrepancy over basin‐scales is unclear. In this contribution, we investigate the sea level budget discrepancies in major basins with observations from satellite altimetry, satellite gravimetry, and Argo floats. During 2016–2020, we find substantial discrepancy of 5.72 ± 0.98 mm/yr over the North Atlantic Ocean, and the basin scale discrepancies are smaller elsewhere. Our analysis suggests that three factors, including the wet tropospheric correction (WTC) effect, deep ocean warming signal, and the contemporary ocean bottom deformation (OBD), together reduce the discrepancy by only 1 mm/yr for the North Atlantic Ocean. We decompose sea level observations into the spherical harmonic domain and observe increased discrepancy in low‐degree variations of C10 and C21 since 2016. These two coefficients result in a contrasting signal between the North and South Atlantic Ocean and contribute to the large discrepancy over the North Atlantic Ocean. We further demonstrate that the C10 and C21 discrepancies are independent of the three factors. However, we find regional salinity biases in the Argo data that reduce the discrepancy for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings add to the debate about recent sea level budget and imply that further analysis of the Argo North Atlantic data set may be useful.

Coccolithophore Assemblage Response to Indian Monsoon–ENSO Teleconnections During the Last Century

AbstractWe present a new, annually resolved coccolithophore relative abundance record (1889–1993 CE) from a laminated marine sediment core obtained from the northeastern Arabian Sea to document assemblage variations during the last century. Our analysis revealed that ∼80% of the assemblage is composed of the coccolithophore species Gephyrocapsa oceanica, Emiliania huxleyi, and Florisphaera profunda. Hierarchical clustering of the coccolithophore data delineates time intervals (1889–1909 CE, 1910–1959 CE, 1960–1993 CE) comparable to previously reported interdecadal changes of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–Indian monsoon variance. We find that F. profunda (Fp%) is positively correlated with central Pacific ENSO (Niño 4 and Niño 3.4). Frequency analyses of Fp% match ENSO quasiperiodicity reported from instrumental data and proxy records and support the existence of previously described ENSO–Indian monsoon teleconnections. Furthermore, the increased variance of Fp% and associated decrease in marine primary productivity starting ∼1960 CE appears to be driven by decreased upward nutrient transport linked to increased surface water stratification due to surface ocean warming. With the predicted increases in frequency and strength of central Pacific El Niño as well as surface ocean warming and upper ocean stratification in the Indian Ocean over the coming century, our results imply further impacts on coccolithophores in the northeastern Arabian Sea that may have cascading effects on the marine food web and global biogeochemical cycles.

What Determines the East Asian Winter Temperature during El Niño?—Role of the Early Onset El Niño and Tropical Indian Ocean Warming

Abstract Atmospheric teleconnections from the Pacific El Niño are key to determining the East Asian winter climate. Using the database for policy decision-making for future climate change (d4PDF) large-ensemble simulations, the present study investigates a mechanism for the warm and cold East Asian winters during El Niño with a focus on atmospheric teleconnections triggered by anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the tropical Indo-Pacific. Our results show that the western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern plays a primary role in the warm winters in East Asia. The WP pattern tends to appear in years when both an early El Niño and the positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode develop in boreal autumn. In those years, the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) strongly warms in the following winter, forming a distinct zonal contrast in precipitation anomalies over the tropical Indo-Pacific through a reduced Walker circulation. The Rossby wave source anomalies indicate that the WP pattern is associated with the weakened Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. By contrast, the WP pattern does not dominate in the cold winters due to the absence of strong TIO warming. The present study proposes a mechanism that promotes the excitation of the WP pattern through the upper-troposphere divergence in East Asia associated with the Walker circulation modulated by the tropical Indo-Pacific interbasin interaction. Significance Statement The East Asian winter temperature variability is controlled not only by the strong atmospheric internal variability in the midlatitudes and high latitudes but also by remote forcing from the tropical ocean. Our study investigates how El Niño exerts diverse impacts on the East Asian winter temperature, depending on where atmospheric convection intensifies in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. Our results show that an intense warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and the early development of El Niño are the major factors for warm winters in East Asia. Given that a precursor of the intense Indian Ocean warming appears in boreal autumn, our findings should contribute to the improvement of seasonal prediction for the East Asian winter climate.

Elevated temperature alters bacterial community from mutualism to antagonism with Skeletonema costatum: insights into the role of a novel species, Tamlana sp. MS1.

Ocean warming profoundly influences the growth and metabolism of phytoplankton and bacteria, thereby significantly reshaping their interactions. Previous studies have shown that warming can change bacterial lifestyle from mutualism to antagonism with phytoplankton, but the underlying mechanism remains unclear. In this study, we found that high temperature promotes Tamlana sp. MS1 adhesion to Skeletonema costatum, leading to algal lysis through direct contact, demonstrating a transition in lifestyle from mutualism to antagonism with increasing temperature. Furthermore, the gliding motility of MS1 appears to be pivotal in mediating the transition of its lifestyle. These findings not only advance our understanding of the phytoplankton-bacteria relationship under ocean warming but also offer valuable insights for predicting the impact of warming on phytoplankton carbon sequestration.

Steep Decline in the Rare Flat Abalone, Haliotis walallensis, Following Fishing Exploitation and a Marine Heat Wave: The Next Neoextinction?

Ocean warming is impacting marine systems directly and indirectly via intensifying multiple stressors such as hypoxia, acidification and kelp forest collapse potentially exacerbating neoextinctions. Abalones are extremely vulnerable to both ocean warming and fishing stressors making them marine "canaries in the coal mine". The rare flat abalone, Haliotis walallensis, has been subject to a targeted commercial fishery and then exposed to an extreme marine heat wave. We examine the current status of flat abalone before and after a marine heat wave of 2014-2016 and the concomitant collapse of the bull kelp (Nereocystis leutkeana) forest in 2015. We find that flat abalone density (as assessed in surveys) and abundances (inside deployed "abalone modules") in the core of the range dropped to near zero after the marine heat wave and have not recovered. Further, we examine the status of flat abalone in southern Oregon after both overfishing and the kelp forest collapse and find dramatic declines, especially in former fishery hot spots. Our results show that flat abalone have experienced a major decline and may be an example of a neoextinction in the making. A standardized and well funded status review and proactive restoration plan, if not too late, are both critically needed for flat abalone throughout its range.

Conservation Consequences of Corallivore Gastropod Predation on Plexaurella grandiflora (Cnidaria: Octocorallia) Populations in Tropical Reefs

Octocorals are extremely important animals for forming coral reefs and maintaining life in the marine environment and are widely distributed. The focus species Plexaurella grandiflora is an endemic species from Brazil. It is subject to the most varied external stressors, from ocean surface warming, pollution, damage caused by tourism, and predation by other animals. In this sense, the present study aimed to survey the population characteristics of P. grandiflora in a shallow tropical reef where it occurs in the Northeast of Brazil. Furthermore, we evaluated the stress and damage caused by coral-eating gastropods of the Muricidae family, found associated with colony structure. Through free dives between the years 2016 and 2017, 143 colonies of P. grandiflora were marked and observed, and they were analyzed in their size, supporting substrate, distribution, presence of damage, and impact by coral-eating gastropods. The cataloged colonies were larger than those recognized in the literature and were distributed in aggregate. A total of 85 gastropods of two species (Coralliophila aberrans and Coralliophila salebrosa) were recorded preying on gorgonians. The damage ranged from light to deep, from polyp removal to exposure of the protein axis. Predation occurred predominantly at the base of the colonies. As it is an endemic species and in need of studies, this study warns of the need for studies focused on the ecology and conservation of this gorgonian and its critical habitats.

Forecasted changes to the timing of Pacific herring Clupea pallasii spawn in a warming ocean

Pacific herring Clupea pallasii are a critical commercial and subsistence fish species and play a keystone role in the ecology and culture of the North Pacific. The annual herring spawn, in which mature herring migrate nearshore to deposit eggs along the coastline, is an important event linked to the migration of seabirds and marine mammals as well as a subsistence harvest for Alaska Natives and First Nations in British Columbia. Previous work has suggested that environmental variables and broad teleconnection indices play a role in the magnitude and phenology of spawning; however, the effects of these drivers have not been examined in the context of future climate scenarios. Here, we modeled variability in the timing of herring spawn across British Columbia and Southeast Alaska using survey data from 1951-2022. We created a model using Pacific teleconnection indices, sea surface temperature (SST), tidal height, and lagged data to predict spawn date anomalies (SDAs) across 9 spawning regions. SDAs were significantly affected by the Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, SST, and lagged SDAs. We then used this model to predict SDAs using projected SST from climate models and bootstrapped teleconnection data from 2025-2100. Future herring spawn timing trends earlier on average with warming SSTs, although the magnitude is relatively small, occurring 9 d earlier on average by 2100. This changing phenology, though small, varied by region and may have ecosystem-level ramifications and create timing mismatch for migratory species. However, our findings also reinforce the importance of other physical factors not measured in this study, such as photoperiod, which drive herring spawn timing.

The Young and the Resilient: Investigating Coral Thermal Resilience in Early Life Stages.

Global ocean warming is affecting keystone species distributions and fitness, resulting in the degradation of marine ecosystems. Coral reefs are one of the most diverse and productive marine ecosystems. However, reef-building corals, the foundational taxa of coral reef ecosystems, are severely threatened by thermal stress. Models predict 40-80% of global coral cover will be lost by 2100, which highlights the urgent need for widespread interventions to preserve coral reef functionality. There has been extensive research on coral thermal stress and resilience, but 95% of studies have focused on adult corals. It is necessary to understand stress during early life stages (larvae, recruits, and juveniles), which will better inform selective breeding programs that aim to replenish reefs with resilient stock. In this review, we surveyed the literature on coral thermal resilience in early life stages, and we highlight that studies have been conducted on relatively few species (commonly Acropora spp.) and in limited regions (mainly Australia). Reef-building coral management will be improved by comprehensively understanding coral thermal resilience and fitness across life stages, as well as in diverse species and regions.