Warming Events Research Articles

Coral carbonate production across depth: homogenisation after bleaching?

AbstractRecurrent climate-driven warming events, which can induce severe coral bleaching and mortality on tropical reefs, are predicted to cause homogenisation of coral communities and loss of ecosystem functions in shallow reef systems (< 30 m). However, data documenting the variation in coral carbonate production across depth are limited. Here we explore differences in coral cover, community composition, coral colony size structure and carbonate production rates between two depths (10 m and 17.5 m) across four atolls in the remote Chagos Archipelago. We show higher coral carbonate production rates at 10 m (4.82 ± 0.27 G, where G = kg CaCO3 m−2 yr−1) compared to sites at 17.5 m (3.1 ± 0.18 G). The main carbonate producers at 10 m consisted of fast-growing branching and tabular corals (mainly Acroporids) and massive corals (mainly Porites), with high abundances of medium- and large-sized colonies. In contrast, coral carbonate production at 17.5 m was driven by slow-growing encrusting and foliose morphotypes and small colony sizes. Utilising a dataset following 6–7 years of recovery after the 2015–2017 bleaching event, our results show that depth-homogenisation of coral communities was temporary and carbonate production rates at 10 m depth recovered quicker at 3 of 4 studied atolls. The exception is Great Chagos Bank where slower recovery of branching and tabular corals at 10 m has led to a longer-lasting depth-homogenisation of carbonate production rates. The latter example cautions that more frequent bleaching events may drive increasing homogenisation of carbonate production rates across depth gradients, with implications for vital reef geo-ecological functions.

Impact of compound warm and wet events on dengue fever infection in South and Southeast Asian countries

BackgroundMultiple studies have reported the profound influence of various climate factors on dengue fever infection, while the effects of joint exposure to warm and wet environment, a condition favouring dengue vectors, on disease transmission were less evaluated. This study aims to investigate the impact of various compound temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity exposures on dengue fever infection in the South and Southeast Asia regions. MethodsWeekly dengue fever surveillance data from 2012 to 2020 were collected from 48 locations in four countries named Singapore (1 location), Sri Lanka (15 locations), Malaysia (9 locations), and Thailand (23 locations, with 11 locations having different study periods). The distributed lag non-linear models were built to assess the impacts of compound temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity exposures on dengue fever infection risks. ResultsA total of 1,359,993 dengue fever cases were reported with 9.33%, 24.02%, 48.73%, and 17.91% cases contributed by Singapore, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Thailand, respectively. Compared to non-warm-non-wet, compound warm-wet was associated with an increased dengue risk (RR:1.32, 95% CI:1.21–1.44). Compared to moderate temperature-humidity, warm-wet environment was also associated with an increase in dengue risk (RR:1.37, 95% CI:1.22–1.55). In comparison to weeks with moderate temperature-rainfall, warm-wet weeks was linked to an elevated dengue risk (RR:1.39, 95% CI:1.27–1.52), whereas cold-dry weather would significantly reduce the infection risk (RR:0.70, 95% CI:0.62–0.80). Modification effects showed that the hot effect on dengue infection was more pronounced under higher humidity, while the impact of rainfall increased with warmer temperature. ConclusionWarm-wet events were associated with an increased dengue fever risk, while the infection risk would decline in cold-dry environment, and modification effects exist among exposures. Findings from this study highlight the importance of considering joint temperature, humidity, and rainfall dependency of dengue fever infection in disease prevention and control.

Flammable futures—storylines of climatic impacts on wildfire events and palm oil plantations in Indonesia

Abstract Wildfire events are driven by complex interactions of climate and anthropogenic interventions. Predictions of future wildfire events, their extremity, and their impact on the environment and economy must consider the interactions between these drivers. Economic policy and land use decisions influence the susceptibility of an area to climate extremes, the probability of burning, and future decision making. To better understand how climate-driven drought events and adaptation efforts affect burned area, agricultural production losses, and land use decisions, we developed a storyline approach centered on Indonesia’s 2015 fire events, which saw significant (>5%) production losses of palm oil. We explored analogous events under three warming conditions and two storylines (multi-model ensemble mean climate change and high impact). We employed a model chain consisting of CMIP6 climate modeling to quantify climate change impacts, a wildfire climate impacts and adaptation model (FLAM) to predict burned areas, and the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) to predict resultant production losses and socio-economic consequences in the oil palm sector in Indonesia and, by extension, the EU. FLAM is a mechanistic fire model used to reproduce and project wildfires based on various criteria and input variables; GLOBIOM is a global economic land use model, which assesses land use competition and provides economic impacts based on scenario data. We found that total burned area and production loss can increase by up to 25% and lead to local price increases up to 70%, with only minor differences beyond 2.5 degrees of warming. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interactions of future warming, drought conditions, and extreme weather events when predicting their impacts on oil palm losses and burned area. This study sets the stage for further exploration on the impacts of land management policies on local and international environments and economies in the context of global warming.

Global-scale gravity wave analysis methodology for the ESA Earth Explorer 11 candidate CAIRT

Abstract. In the past, satellite climatologies of gravity waves (GWs) have initiated progress in their representation in global models. However, these could not provide the phase speed and direction distributions needed for a better understanding of the interaction between GWs and the large-scale winds directly. The ESA Earth Explorer 11 candidate CAIRT could provide such observations. CAIRT would use a limb-imaging Michelson interferometer resolving a wide spectral range, allowing temperature and trace gas mixing ratio measurements. With the proposed instrument design, a vertical resolution of 1 km, along-track sampling of 50 km, and across-track sampling of 25 km in a 400 km wide swath will be achieved. In particular, this allows for the observation of three-dimensional (3D), GW-resolving temperature fields throughout the middle atmosphere. In this work, we present the methodology for the GW analysis of CAIRT observations using a limited-volume 3D sinusoidal fit (S3D) wave analysis technique. We assess the capability of CAIRT to provide high-quality GW fields by the generation of synthetic satellite observations from high-resolution model data and comparison of the synthetic observations to the original model fields. For the assessment, wavelength spectra, phase speed spectra, horizontal distributions, and zonal means of GW momentum flux (GWMF) are considered. The atmospheric events we use to exemplify the capabilities of CAIRT are the 2006 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropics, and the mesospheric preconditioning phase of the 2019 SSW event. Our findings indicate that CAIRT would provide highly reliable observations not only of global-scale GW distributions and drag patterns but also of specific wave events and their associated wave parameters. Even under worse-than-expected noise levels of the instrument, the resulting GW measurements are highly consistent with the original model data. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the estimated GW parameters can be used for ray tracing, which physically extends the horizontal coverage of the observations beyond the orbit tracks.

The Attribution of February Extremes over North America: A Forecast-Based Storyline Study

Abstract The importance of extreme event attribution rises as climate change causes severe damage to populations resulting from unprecedented events. In February 2019, a planetary wave shifted along the U.S.–Canadian border, simultaneously leading to troughing with anomalous cold events and ridging over Alaska and northern Canada with abnormal warm events. Also, a dry-stabilized anticyclonic circulation over low latitudes induced warm extreme events over Mexico and Florida. Most attribution studies compare the climate model simulations under natural or actual forcing conditions and assess probabilistically from a climatological point of view. However, in this study, we use multiple ensembles from an operational forecast model, promising statistical as well as dynamically constrained attribution assessment, often referred to as the storyline approach to extreme event attribution. In the globally averaged results, increasing CO2 concentrations lead to distinct warming signals at the surface, resulting mainly from diabatic heating. Our study finds that CO2-induced warming eventually affects the possibility of extreme events in North America, quantifying the impact of anthropogenic forcing over less than a week’s forecast simulation. Our study assesses the validity of the storyline approach conditional on the forecast lead times, which is hindered by rising noise in CO2 signals and the declining performance of the forecast model. The forecast-based storyline approach is valid for at least half of the land area within a 6-day lead time before the target extreme occurrence. Our attribution results highlight the importance of achieving net-zero emissions ahead of schedule to reduce the occurrence of severe heatwaves.

Evaluation of source rocks and prediction of oil and gas resources distribution in Baiyun Sag, Pearl River Mouth Basin, China

By conducting organic geochemical analysis of the samples taken from the drilled wells in Baiyun Sag of Pearl River Mouth Basin, China, the development characteristics of hydrocarbon source rocks in the sag are clarified. Reconstruct the current geothermal field of the sag and restore the tectonic-thermal evolution process to predict the type, scale, and distribution of resources in Baiyun Sag through thermal pressure simulation experiments and numerical simulation. The Baiyun Sag is characterized by the development of Paleogene shallow lacustrine source rocks, which are deposited in a slightly oxidizing environment. The source rocks are mainly composed of terrestrial higher plants, with algae making a certain contribution, and are oil and gas source rocks. Current geothermal field of the sag was reconstructed, in which the range of geothermal gradients is (3.5–5.2) °C/100 m, showing an overall increasing trend from northwest to southeast, with significant differences in geothermal gradients across different sub-sags. Baiyun Sag has undergone two distinct periods of extensional process, the Eocene and Miocene, since the Cenozoic era. These two periods of heating and warming events have been identified, accelerating the maturation and evolution of source rocks. The main body of ancient basal heat flow value reached its highest at 13.82 Ma. The basin modelling results show that the maturity of source rocks is significantly higher in Baiyun main sub-sag than that in other sub-sags. The Eocene Wenchang Formation is currently in the stage of high maturity to over maturity, while the Eocene Enping Formation has reached the stage of maturity to high maturity. The rock thermal simulation experiment shows that the shallow lacustrine mudstone of the Wenchang Formation has a good potential of generating gas from kerogen cracking with high gas yield and long period of gas window. Shallow lacustrine mudstone of the Enping Formation has a good ability to generate light oil, and has ability to generate kerogen cracking gas in the late stage. The gas yield of shallow lacustrine mudstone of the Enping Formation is less than that of shallow lacustrine mudstone of the Wenchang Formation and the delta coal-bearing mudstone of the Enping Formation. The numerical simulation results indicate that the source rocks of Baiyun main sub-sag generate hydrocarbons earlier and have significantly higher hydrocarbon generation intensity than other sub-sags, with an average of about 1 200×104 t/km2. Oil and gas resources were mainly distributed in Baiyun main sub-sag and the main source rocks are distributed in the 3rd and 4th members of Wenchang Formation. Four favorable zones are selected for the division and evaluation of migration and aggregation units: No. ▪ Panyu 30 nose-shaped structural belt, No. ▪ Liuhua 29 nose-shaped uplift belt and Liwan 3 nose-shaped uplift belt, No. ▪ gentle slope belt of Baiyun east sag, and No. ▪ Baiyun 1 low-uplift.

The Streamflow Response to Multi‐Day Warm Anomaly Events: Sensitivity to Future Warming and Spatiotemporal Variability by Event Magnitude

AbstractPersistent warm temperature anomalies can drive streamflow in regions where snow and glacier melt are important constituents of streamflow. However, the spatiotemporal variability of the streamflow response depends on both the magnitude of the forcing temperature anomalies and the nature of the underlying hydrological system. Here we ask: when, where, and for what magnitude of temperature anomalies will the streamflow response change most rapidly under warming? We use observed streamflow and temperature for 868 basins across Canada to quantify the streamflow response during warm temperature anomalies and how such responses vary in space, time, and by anomaly magnitude. We first identify two temporal modes of the streamflow response, one in autumn and one in spring, the relative strength of which varies by climate. We then use sinusoidal approximations of seasonal temperature cycles to characterize the sensitivity of such modes to changes in annual temperature. At individual basins, we find that relative to moderate warm events, the streamflow response to more extreme warm events is more sensitive to changes in mean annual temperatures, and this sensitivity is greatest in the coastal, southern, and central regions of Canada. Our results have implications for how the hydrological impacts of extreme events, such as heatwaves, will change in space and time under future climate change.

Feedbacks From Young Permafrost Carbon Remobilization to the Deglacial Methane Rise

AbstractThe abrupt warming events punctuating the Termination 1 (about 11.7–18 ka Before Present, BP) were marked by sharp rises in the concentration of atmospheric methane (CH4). The role of permafrost organic carbon (OC) in these rises is still debated, with studies based on top‐down measurements of radiocarbon (14C) content of CH4 trapped in ice cores suggesting minimum contributions from old and strongly 14C‐depleted permafrost OC. However, organic matter from permafrost can exhibit a continuum of 14C ages (contemporaneous to >50 ky). Here, we investigate the large‐scale permafrost remobilization at the Younger Dryas‐Preboreal transition (ca. 11.6 ka BP) using the sedimentary record deposited at the Lena River paleo‐outlet (Arctic Ocean) to reflect permafrost destabilization in this vast drainage basin. Terrestrial OC was isolated from sediments and characterized geochemically measuring δ13C, Δ14C, and lignin phenol molecular fossils. Results indicate massive remobilization of relatively young (about 2,600 years) permafrost OC from inland Siberia after abrupt warming triggered severe active layer deepening. Methane emissions from this young fraction of permafrost OC contributed to the deglacial CH4 rise. This study stresses that underestimating permafrost complexities may affect our comprehension of the deglacial permafrost OC‐climate feedback and helps understand how modern permafrost systems may react to rapid warming events, including enhanced CH4 emissions that would amplify anthropogenic climate change.

Development and empirical verification of non-uniformly layout semiconductor liquid cooling garment model based on CFD simulation

Personal cooling garments (PCGs) are important to help human body regulate its own thermal comfort under high temperature environments. This study focuses on the thermal comfort of personal cooling garment in high temperature environments, which is of great significance in the context of current climate warming and frequent extreme high temperature events. Traditional research on cooling garment mainly focuses on improving its cooling performance, but ignores how to improve human thermal comfort by optimizing cooling equipment and garment parameters. This study developed a semiconductor liquid cooling garment (SLCG) that can adjust and help the human body achieve optimal thermal comfort under different environmental conditions. Through computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation, this study established a human body model wearing SLCG to analyze the effects of parameters such as external ambient temperature, flow rate, and inlet water temperature on thermal comfort. Different from traditional research, this study proposed a heat exchange network design with non-uniformity layout, this layout accounted for the variations in heat dissipation across different regions of the human body, enabling targeted optimization of the cooling effect. The results show that among the five different pipe spacings, the spacing of 2–3.5 cm can most effectively improve human thermal comfort. Specifically, in an environment of 34 °C, the parameter combination of inlet water temperature of 24 °C and flow rate of 26 kg/h was selected; at 36 °C, the inlet water temperature was 22 °C and the flow rate was 40 kg/h; at 38 °C, the inlet water temperature was 20 °C and the flow rate was 54 kg/h. The accuracy of the newly developed numerical model was evaluated through a series of experiments. Validation efforts involved comparing the model’s numerical results with experimental outcomes derived from human trials. The error between the simulated and experimental temperatures at each inlet and outlet was confined to within 0.2 °C. The error of cooling power is within 8 %, which proves the accuracy of the numerical model and the rationality of SLCG optimal parameters. This study not only proposed a new SLCG design idea, filling the research gap on thermal comfort optimization in the field of cooling garment, but also provided a theoretical basis and practical reference for the future design of cooling garment in different high temperature environments.

Mathematical insights into the influence of delay and external recruitment on coral-macroalgae system

As anthropogenic pressures on coral reef ecosystems continue to increase due to global warming and mass coral bleaching events, there is growing interest in developing conservation strategies to restore degraded coral reefs. One such approach is the transplantation of coral larvae onto degraded reefs. In this paper, we use a delayed coral-macroalgae model to explore the effects of external recruitment of coral. By analyzing the local and global stability of macroalgae-free equilibrium and coexistence equilibrium in the system, we find that sustained external recruitment of coral will favor coral competition with macroalgae. In addition, we choose delay as a bifurcation parameter and demonstrate that Hopf bifurcation may occur at a critical delay near the coexistence equilibrium. Interestingly, the delay may cause the globally asymptotically stable equilibrium in the ODE system to become unstable, resulting in the appearance of periodic solutions. Furthermore, we analyze population dynamics using optimal control theory and determine the effect of minimum external recruitment on the population dynamics. In the numerical simulation section, parameters of coral-macroalgae dynamics are estimated by using a 12-year (2005–2017) benthic cover dataset of coral reefs in the Gulf of Mannar, southeastern India. The theoretical results are validated and supported by numerical simulations.

Subsurface Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea

AbstractMarine heatwaves (MHWs), extreme warm ocean temperature events, greatly impact marine ecosystems. While most MHW studies in the South China Sea (SCS) focus on the sea surface, subsurface characteristics remain less explored. This study uses high‐resolution (1/12°) ocean reanalysis data sets to assess MHW properties with depth in the SCS from 1993 to 2022. We find that MHW intensities are typically stronger at subsurface levels (30–150 m) than at the surface, with significant spatial variations. The vertical structures of MHW maximum and cumulative intensities peak between 70 and 100 m with 2.7°C and 63°C days, respectively; MHW annual days and duration increase gradually from 10 to 2,000 m with duration peaks at 2,000 m (∼60 days), four times longer than that at the surface. The SCS experienced two major periods of extensive El Niño‐related subsurface MHWs from 1997 to 2002 and 2008 to 2014, with MHWs reaching depths of 150 m and covering 70% of the upper 40 m. Strong El Niño events strengthen the western Pacific subtropical high, reducing summer monsoon winds, weakening coastal upwelling east of Vietnam, and increasing water temperatures. Regions of elevated eddy kinetic energy in the SCS suggest that significant mesoscale eddy activities are situated east of Vietnam. In addition, notable eddy heat transport was observed in the above region and west of the Luzon Strait in the upper 1,000 m. This may help to explain the high maximum and cumulative intensities of MHWs exceeding 100 m in the northern SCS.

Increased exposure of rice to compound drought and hot extreme events during its growing seasons in China

Against the backdrop of global warming, compound drought and hot extreme events (CDHEEs) have intensified markedly, attracting attention from both the scientific community and society. However, a comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of the CDHEEs and their impacts on rice production during growing seasons remains limited. Thus, in this study, we use daily maximum and minimum air temperatures to derive a meteorological drought composite index for CDHEE identification. Additionally, we employ the Crop Calendar and the CROPGRIDS data to define the rice-growing seasons and regions. Detailed analyses reveal that from 1961 to 2023, the CDHEE frequency in both single-cropping rice regions (Rice1) and double-cropping rice regions (Rice2) increased at rates of 0.79 days (decade)−1 and 1.26 days (decade)−1, respectively, with a notable acceleration in the post-1990 s. The duration of the CDHEEs has lengthened, and prolonged events have become more frequent. The intensity of the CDHEEs has also enhanced, primarily driven by hot extreme events in Rice1 and the synergistic effects of droughts and hot extreme events in Rice2. Furthermore, the time span of CDHEE occurrence has expanded, starting earlier (rates of − 3.21 days (decade)−1 in Rice1 and − 4.37 days (decade)−1 in Rice2) and ending later (rates of 4.81 days (decade)−1 in Rice1 and 8.20 days (decade)−1 Rice2) during rice-growing seasons, thereby extending the exposure duration of rice. Since the 1990 s, rice exposure to the CDHEEs has also intensified, especially for the persistent CDHEEs. These findings indicate the upward trends in the frequency, intensity and duration of the CDHEEs, as well as the exposure of rice to the CDHEEs, during the rice-growing seasons in China. This research provides crucial insights into CDHEE impacts and underscores the necessity of implementing targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies to safeguard rice production amidst escalating climate challenges.

Subsurface Temperature Anomalies Off Central Oregon During 2014–2021

AbstractWe use moored observations in 80 m water depth at the NH‐10 site along the historic Newport Hydrographic Line from 1999 to 2021 to calculate water temperature anomalies at the surface, near surface, and bottom. Analysis is focused on the subsurface temporal and spatial characteristics of marine heatwaves (MHWs) during 2014–2016 and 2019–2020 on the continental shelf and slope. Warm anomalies extend throughout the water column in fall/winter 2014–2016 when winds are predominantly downwelling‐favorable, while the 2019–2020 period is characterized by shallower summer and fall anomalies on the shelf. Sustained temperature anomalies during the bottom MHW in late 2016 are the largest in the NH‐10 time series. Analysis of temporal patterns in wind stress during MHW and non‐MHW periods shows the onset of upwelling‐favorable winds interrupts warm events. Indices of cumulative upwelling and annual spring transition dates reveal the spring transition was unusually late in 2014, with only five years with later spring transitions since the upwelling index record began in 1967. In 2015 and 2019, in contrast, spring transition is close to the climatological mean of April 15. In 2016 and 2020, anomalous warming is observed when cumulative upwelling decreases after an early spring transition.

Coastal ocean response during the unprecedented marine heatwaves in the western Mediterranean in 2022

Abstract. The western Mediterranean Sea suffered unprecedented marine heatwaves (MHWs) in 2022. This study focuses on the response of coastal ocean, which is highly vulnerable to global warming and extreme events that threaten the biodiversity, as well as goods and services that humans rely on. Using remote sensing and in situ observations, strong spatiotemporal variations in the MHW characteristics are observed in the coastal ocean over the last decade (2013–2022). In 2022, shallow-water moorings in the western Mediterranean Sea detected between 23 and 131 d of MHWs. While the highest MHW mean and maximum intensities were detected at the surface in French waters, the highest duration was observed nearshore at 17 m depth in the Balearic Islands. As thermal stress indicators for marine ecosystems, the highest cumulative intensity and total days were found at the surface at Tarragona, and MHW temperatures warmer than 28 °C were observed to last up to 58 d at Palma. Differences between datasets are also highlighted. In 2022, depending on the sub-regions, satellites underestimated or overestimated MHW duration and intensity compared with in situ measurements at the surface. In addition, daily data underestimate maxima reached during the extreme warm events up to 1.52 °C difference compared with hourly measurements. These results invite us to continue the efforts in deploying and maintaining multi-platform observing systems in both open-ocean and coastal ocean waters to better address the coastal adaptation and mitigation in the context of climate change.

Multi‐Elemental Statistical Features of Early Paleogene Sediments From the Mid‐Latitude Eastern Indian Ocean

AbstractThe early Paleogene, including the Paleocene and Eocene, is characterized by Warmhouse and Hothouse climate states with superimposed transient warming events known as hyperthermals. While these paleoenvironmental changes are well‐documented in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, records of such changes in the Indian Ocean are limited. Here, we present a new data set of bulk chemical composition and stable isotopic ratios from the late Paleocene to middle Eocene sediments on the Exmouth Plateau in the mid‐latitude eastern Indian Ocean. The bulk δ13C and δ18O suggest a warming period called the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) and cooling toward the middle Eocene in a long‐term perspective. In the short‐term, we identified at least six hyperthermals (Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, H2, I1, J, ETM3, and L) in the studied sections. By applying independent component (IC) analyses (ICA) to the bulk chemical composition data, we identified six ICs corresponding to sediment source materials and post‐depositional processes. The ICA result infers an increase in detrital materials or a decrease in carbonate rain flux, and an increased population of higher‐order consumers in the oceanic ecosystem during both long‐term (EECO) and short‐term (hyperthermal) warmings around the Exmouth Plateau. Furthermore, ICs representing diagenetic processes and post‐depositional remobilization of elements showed excursions across the hyperthermal horizons, indicating that changes in the redox state of pore or bottom water are associated with hyperthermals. This study provides critical insights into the paleoceanography of the Indian Ocean, highlighting the response of marine environments to both long‐term and short‐term climatic events during the early Paleogene.

Warming events and their causes at the Bering Sea section B in summer of 1999–2019

Based on hydrological data for the Bering Sea from 1999 to 2019 during the Chinese National Arctic Research Expeditions (CHINAREs), along with oceanographic and meteorological data from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we investigated trends in summer at the Bering Sea section B over the past 20 years and their underlying causes. The results revealed a pronounced rise in temperature at the Bering Sea section B in 2003, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019, suggesting a shift towards a new phase of warmth starting in 2014. In warm years (2003, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2019), the mean maximum temperature in the upper layer in the basin north of 57°N and on the continental shelf were roughly 2.7 °C, 2.6 °C higher than that in cold years (1999, 2008, 2010, and 2012). Additionally, the mean minimum temperature of the cold water in the middle layer in the basin was roughly 0.7 °C higher in the warm years compared to the cold years. This difference between the warm and cold years was evident in the heat content: the average heat content in the upper to middle layers in the basin north of 57°N and on the continental shelf were about 1.2 and 0.9 GJ/m2 higher, respectively, in the warm years than the cold years. However, there was a modest warming trend in the basin south of 57°N, and the temperature in the mid-layer on the continental shelf showed year-to-year stability, in contrast to the significant warming observed elsewhere. Further study suggested that temperature fluctuation in the basin was closely tied to seasonal 2-m air temperature. In addition, the southern basin, divided at 57°N, experienced larger positive or negative anomalous wind stress curl compared to the northern basin. This discrepancy resulted in differing causes of temperature variation between the two regions. Temperature change in the upper layer on the continental shelf was attributed to an increase in cumulative net heat flux resulting from reduced sea ice, while the temperature in the middle layer on the continental shelf was limited by the enhanced density gradient between the upper and middle layer caused by melt ice, preventing significant warming. Overall, the thermal state for the Bering Sea section B was influenced by a combination of factors, including net heat flux, sea ice, and atmospheric conditions, contributing to the year-to-year variation characterized by alternating cold and warm regimes.

Arctic Amplification of marine heatwaves under global warming

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) and total heat exposures (THEs), extreme warming events occurring across the global oceans, seriously threaten marine ecosystems and coastal communities as the climate warms. However, future changes in MHWs and THEs in the Arctic Ocean, where unique marine ecosystems are present, are still unclear. Here, based on the latest CMIP6 climate simulations, we find that both MHWs and THEs in the Arctic Ocean are anticipated to intensify in a warming climate, mainly due to Arctic sea ice decline and long-term warming trend, respectively. Particularly striking is the projected rise in MHW mean intensity during the 21st century in the Arctic Ocean, surpassing the global average by more than sevenfold under the CMIP6 SSP585 scenario. This phenomenon, coined the ‘Arctic MHW Amplification’, underscores an impending and disproportionately elevated threat to the Arctic marine life, necessitating targeted conservation and adaptive strategies.

Miocene Climatic Optimum and Middle Miocene Climate Transition: a foraminiferal record from the central Ross Sea, Antarctica

Abstract. The Ross Sea record of the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO; ∼ 16.9–14.7 Ma) and the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT; ∼ 14.7–13.8 Ma) provides critical insights into Antarctic ocean–cryosphere interactions during a time of extreme warmth and subsequent cooling. Here we report on Lower to Middle Miocene foraminiferal assemblages from the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1521 on the outer shelf of the central Ross Sea to identify regional shifts in environmental and water mass conditions and trace continental shelf evolution. We identified seven benthic biofacies clusters, dominated by abundant Globocassidulina subglobosa (a proposed indicator of proto-Circumpolar Deep Water, pCDW), Uvigerina cf. U. fueguina (high productivity and enhanced bottom-water currents), Nonionella spp. (high productivity), or Melonis spp. (high productivity) using a Q-mode cluster analysis to develop preliminary regional paleoenvironmental interpretations. Four unique assemblages, including Globobulimina cf. G. auriculata (high productivity and low oxygen), are also identified. Unit IV (representing the early MCO event) is a short-lived (∼ 80 ka), progradational, clast-poor sandy diamictite, likely deposited during deglaciation; the upper part of Unit IV is transitional with overlying Unit III. Unit IV sediments contain the most persistently abundant and diverse foraminiferal assemblages recovered at U1521 because they are mud-rich and diatom-poor, despite very high sedimentation rates. The benthic assemblages shift between Globocassidulina and Uvigerina dominance, suggesting changes in the pCDW influence relative to productivity and/or current activity. We suggest the abundance of Uvigerina (a shelf-edge proxy) in Unit IV records the northward progradation of the Ross continental shelf at this location during the late Early to Middle Miocene. Unit III (MCO) was deposited in an open-marine setting, evident by the ice-rafted detritus or debris (IRD) clast-free, diatom-rich/diatom-bearing muds. The sporadic nature of foraminiferal abundances in Unit III is likely due to intervals of terrigenous mud alternating with more diatom-rich/diatom-bearing muds. As in Unit IV, the muddier lithologies (higher natural gamma ray (NGR) values) are more likely to preserve calcareous foraminifera, whereas the most diatom-rich sediments (lower NGR values) are more corrosive to carbonate. We interpret the muddier intervals as interglacials with incursions of pCDW, as indicated by increased Globocassidulina subglobosa, and sporadic occurrences of rare warmer-water planktic foraminifera. Collectively, these multiple incursions of warmer-water planktic foraminifera provide evidence for polar amplification in the Ross Sea during the MCO and MMCT. The diatom-rich muds are interpreted as glacials during the MCO with open-marine conditions and higher productivity. The dominance of Globobulimina in the upper part of Unit III corresponds with the carbon maximum of Carbon Maxima 2 (CM2) and low-oxygen conditions in the sediments at ∼ 16.1 Ma. Subsequent glaciation (including Mi2, Miocene Isotope event 2), marine-based ice sheet grounding, and erosion on the shallow shelf are recorded by the widespread Ross Sea Unconformity 4 (RSU4; ∼ 15.95–14.2 Ma) at Site U1521. Unit II (MMCT) likely represents sedimentation in the interval between the RSU4 and the Mi3 (Miocene Isotope event 3) glaciation at ∼ 13.9–13.8 Ma. The benthic biofacies composition of Unit II shows a further increase in neritic taxa, including Elphidium magellanicum and Epistominella vitrea, suggesting continued shoaling of the continental shelf, which facilitated the growth of marine-based ice sheets during the Middle Miocene. Our initial correlation between Site U1521 and the ANtarctic geological DRILLing Project (ANDRILL) site, AND-2A, yields similar environmental interpretations, including peak warm events 3 and 4 during the MCO, supported by the foraminifera and unit lithologies. Suspected glacial intervals during the MCO, including Mi2 at the top of Unit III, correlate well with the reconstructed deep-sea estimates of ice volume changes (seawater δ18Osw record) from the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1171 on the South Tasman Rise.

Risk Assessment of Community-Scale High-Temperature and Rainstorm Waterlogging Disasters: A Case Study of the Dongsi Community in Beijing

With the advancement of urbanization and acceleration of global warming, extreme weather and climate events are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, and climate risk continues to rise. Each community is irreplaceable and important in coping with extreme climate risk and improving urban resilience. In this study, the Dongsi Community in the functional core area of Beijing was explored, and the risk assessment of high temperatures and rainstorm waterlogging was implemented at the community scale. Local navigation observations were integrated into a theoretical framework for traditional disaster risk assessment. The risk assessment indicator system for community-scale high-temperature and rainstorm waterlogging disasters was established and improved from a microscopic perspective (a total of 22 indicators were selected from the three dimensions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability). Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology was used to integrate geographic information, meteorological, planning, municipal, socioeconomic and other multisource information layers, thus enabling more detailed spatial distribution characteristics of the hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk levels of community-scale high temperatures and rainstorm waterlogging to be obtained. The results revealed that the high-risk area and slightly high-risk area of high-temperature disasters accounted for 13.5% and 15.1%, respectively. The high-risk area and slightly high-risk area of rainstorm waterlogging disasters accounted for 9.8% and 31.6%, respectively. The high-risk areas common to high temperatures and waterlogging accounted for 3.9%. In general, the risk of high-temperature and rainstorm waterlogging disasters at the community scale showed obvious spatial imbalances; that is, the risk in the area around the middle section of Dongsi Santiao was the lowest, while a degree of high temperatures or rainstorm waterlogging was found in other areas. In particular, the risk of high-temperature and rainstorm waterlogging disasters along Dongsi North Street, the surrounding areas of Dongsi Liutiao, and some areas along the Dongsi Jiutiao route was relatively high. These spatial differences were affected to a greater extent by land cover (buildings, vegetation, etc.) and population density within the community. This study is a useful exploration of climate risk research for resilient community construction, and provides scientific support for the planning of climate-adaptive communities, as well as the proposal of overall adaptation goals, action frameworks, and specific planning strategies at the community level.

Data-driven discovery of potent small molecule ice recrystallisation inhibitors

Controlling the formation and growth of ice is essential to successfully cryopreserve cells, tissues and biologics. Current efforts to identify materials capable of modulating ice growth are guided by iterative changes and human intuition, with a major focus on proteins and polymers. With limited data, the discovery pipeline is constrained by a poor understanding of the mechanisms and the underlying structure-activity relationships. In this work, this barrier is overcome by constructing machine learning models capable of predicting the ice recrystallisation inhibition activity of small molecules. We generate a new dataset via experimental measurements of ice growth, then harness predictive models combining state-of-the-art descriptors with domain-specific features derived from molecular simulations. The models accurately identify potent small molecule ice recrystallisation inhibitors within a commercial compound library. Identified hits can also mitigate cellular damage during transient warming events in cryopreserved red blood cells, demonstrating how data-driven approaches can be used to discover innovative cryoprotectants and enable next-generation cryopreservation solutions for the cold chain.