Climate Warming Research Articles

Thermal Forcing Versus Chilling? Misspecification of Temperature Controls in Spring Phenology Models

ABSTRACTBackgroundClimate‐change‐induced shifts in the timing of leaf emergence during spring have been widely documented and have important ecological consequences. However, mechanistic knowledge regarding what controls the timing of spring leaf emergence is incomplete. Field‐based studies under natural conditions suggest that climate‐warming‐induced decreases in cold temperature accumulation (chilling) have expanded the dormancy duration or reduced the sensitivity of plants to warming temperatures (thermal forcing) during spring, thereby slowing the rate at which the timing of leaf emergence is shifting earlier in response to ongoing climate change. However, recent studies have argued that the apparent reductions in temperature sensitivity may arise from artefacts in the way that temperature sensitivity is calculated, while other studies based on statistical and mechanistic models specifically designed to quantify the role of chilling have shown conflicting results.MethodsWe analysed four commonly used combinations of phenology and temperature datasets obtained from remote sensing and ground observations to elucidate whether current model‐based approaches robustly quantify how chilling, in concert with thermal forcing, controls the timing of leaf emergence during spring under current climate conditions.ResultsWe show that widely used modeling approaches that are calibrated using field‐based observations misspecify the role of chilling under current climate conditions as a result of statistical artefacts inherent to the way that chilling is parameterised. Our results highlight the limitations of existing modelling approaches and observational data in quantifying how chilling affects the timing of spring leaf emergence and suggest that decreasing chilling arising from climate warming may not constrain near‐future shifts towards earlier leaf emergence in extra‐tropical ecosystems worldwide.

Climate change and gastroenteritis projections in Albanian children

Abstract Background Human health can be affected by climate in direct and indirect ways. Increasing temperatures may affect ecosystems, water safety, and exposure to waterborne diseases. This is the first work in Albania aiming to demonstrate the link between gastroenteritis rate and climate in the country. This research was supported by UNICEF Albania through the WASH Global Thematic Fund, but it doesn’t necessarily represent UNICEF’s position. Methods Epidemiological surveillance reports of the period 2006-2022 were used for the yearly incidence of gastroenteritis in children 0-14 years old. Years 2020 and 2021 were not included because of pandemic confounding potential. Historic data for calculating the average summer temperatures were retrieved from timeanddate.com repository. Pearson coefficient is calculated to quantify the associations and linear regression is applied to project the increased rate in the future. Results There was a statistical association between gastroenteritis rate and summer temperatures during the study period (Pearson coefficient=0.78, p = 0.001). There was a tendency that in years with hotter summers higher incidence of gastroenteritis was reported by the health system. For each degree (Celsius) increase in the average summer day temperatures, the risk of gastroenteritis in children is expected to increase by 644/100 000 (CI 95%: 317 - 972). An excess rate of 966/100 000 is expected in the case of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change medium scenario projection of 1.5o C average temperature increase. That implies more than 4830 additional new cases every year in children 0-14 years old, attributed to climate change in the future in Albania. Conclusions The analysis demonstrated excess gastroenteritis risk may be related to higher summer temperatures observed in Albania. The expected gastroenteritis risk increase in a warmer future should be addressed by improvements in sanitation, education of parents and epidemiological intelligence. Key messages • A warmer climate is expected to affect the health by increasing the risk for diarrheic diseases. • Children will be the most at-risk population category.

Climate projection of tropical cyclone lifetime in the western North Pacific basin

Abstract In this study, the potential changes of tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime in the western North Pacific basin are examined for different future climates. Using homogeneous 9 km-resolution dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we show that TC averaged lifetime displays insignificant change under both low and high greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios. However, more noticeable changes in the tails of TC lifetime statistics are captured in our downscaling simulations, with more frequent long-lived TCs (lifetime of 8-11 days) and less short-lived TCs (lifetime of 3-5 days). Unlike present-day simulations, it is found that the correlation between TC lifetime and the Niño index is relatively weak and insignificant in all future downscaling simulations, thus offering little explanation for these changes in TC lifetime statistics based on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. More detailed analyses of TC track distribution in the western North Pacific basin reveal, nevertheless, a noticeable shift of TC track patterns towards the end of the 21st century. Such a change in TC track climatology results in an overall longer duration of TCs over the open ocean, which is consistent across future scenarios and periods examined in this study. This shift in the TC track pattern is ultimately linked to changes in the Western North Pacific Subtropical High, which retreats to the south during July and to the east during August-September. The results obtained in this study provide new insights into how large-scale circulations can affect TC lifetime in the western North Pacific basin in warmer climates.

Arctic freshwater outflow suppressed Nordic Seas overturning and oceanic heat transport during the Last Interglacial

The Last Interglacial period (LIG) was characterized by a long-term Arctic atmospheric warming above the preindustrial level. The LIG thus provides a case study of Arctic feedback mechanisms of the cryosphere-ocean circulation-climate system under warm climatic conditions. Previous studies suggested a delay in the LIG peak warming in the North Atlantic compared to the Southern Ocean and evoked the possibility of southward extension of Arctic sea ice to the southern Norwegian Sea during the early LIG. Here we compile new and published proxy data on past changes in sea ice distribution, sea surface temperature and salinity, deep ocean convection, and meltwater sources based on well-dated records from the Norwegian Sea. Our data suggest that southward outflow of Arctic freshwater supressed Nordic Seas deep-water formation and northward oceanic heat transport during the early LIG. These findings showcase the complex feedback interactions between a warming climate, sea ice, ocean circulation and regional climate.

Physiological and morphological traits affect contemporary range expansion and implications for species distribution modelling in an amphibian species.

Species range shifts due to climate alterations have been increasingly well-documented. Although amphibians are one of the most sensitive groups of animals to environmental perturbations due to climate change, almost no studies have offered evidence of poleward distribution shifts in this taxon in response to climate warming. Range shifts would be facilitated by variation in traits associated with the ability of species to persist and/or shift their range in the face of climate change, but the extent and consequences of intraspecific variation in these traits is unclear. We studied the role of intraspecific variation in the ongoing range shift of green treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) in response to climate change. We explored factors that are often associated with range shifts to test the hypothesis that there are differences in these traits between recently range-expanded and nearby historical populations. We then tested the consequences of intraspecific variation for modelling climate-induced range shifts by comparing species distribution models (SDMs) that used as input either data from the entire species range or separate inputs from 'subpopulations' corresponding to the historical range or the recently expanded range. We expected that building a separate SDM for each population would more accurately characterize the species range if historical and expanded populations differed in traits related to their response to climate. We found that critical thermal minimum decreased and thermal breadth increased with latitude, but the effect of latitude was significantly stronger for expanded populations compared to historical populations. Additionally, we found that individuals from expanded populations had longer leg lengths when compared to their historical counterparts. Finally, we found higher model accuracy for one of the population-level SDMs than the species-level SDM. Our results suggest that thermal tolerance and dispersal morphologies are associated with amphibian distributional shifts as these characteristics appear to facilitate rapid range expansion of a native anuran. Additionally, our modelling results emphasize that SDM accuracy could be improved by dividing a species range to consider potential differences in traits associated with climate responses. Future research should identify the mechanisms underlying intraspecific variation along climate gradients to continue improving SDM prediction of range shifts under climate change.

Differential Spatiotemporal Patterns of Major Ions and Dissolved Organic Carbon Variations from Non-Permafrost to Permafrost Arctic Basins: Insights from the Severnaya Dvina, Pechora and Taz Rivers

The Arctic river basins, among the most sensitive regions to climate warming, are experiencing rapid temperature rise and permafrost thawing that profoundly affect their hydrological and hydrochemical systems. However, our understanding of chemical export from Arctic basins to oceans remains limited due to scarce data, particularly in permafrost-dominated regions. This study examines the spatiotemporal variations and seasonal dynamics of major ions (Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl−, SO42−) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations across three river basins with varying permafrost extents: the Severnaya Dvina (2006–2008, 2012–2014), the Pechora (2016–2019) and the Taz Rivers (2016–2020). All the data were sourced from published Chemical Geological researches and were taken from Mendeley and PANGAEA datasets. Our results showed that DOC concentrations ranged from 1.75 to 26.40 mg/L, with the Severnaya Dvina River exhibiting the highest levels of DOC concentrations, alongside significantly elevated ion concentrations compared to the other two basins. A positive correlation was observed between DOC concentrations and river discharge, with peaks during the spring flood and summer baseflow due to leaching processes. The Severnaya Dvina and Pechora Rivers exhibited the highest DOC values during the spring flood, reaching 26.40 mg/L and 8.07 mg/L, respectively. In contrast, the Taz River had the highest runoff during the spring flood season, but the DOC concentration reached its highest value of 11.69 mg/L in the summer. Specifically, a 1% increase in river discharge corresponded to a 1.25% rise in DOC concentrations in the Severnaya Dvina River and a 1.04% increase in the Pechora River, while there was no significant correlation between runoff and DOC concentrations in the Taz River. Major ion concentrations demonstrated a negative correlation with river discharge, remaining relatively high during winter low-flow period. A robust power-law relationship between river discharge and concentration of DOC and major ions was observed, with distinct variations across the three river basins depending on permafrost extent. The Pechora and Taz Rivers, characterized by extensive permafrost, exhibited increasing trends in river discharge and DOC concentrations, accompanied by decreasing major ion concentrations, whereas the non-permafrost-dominated Severnaya Dvina River basin showed the opposite pattern. The Taz River, with the most extensive permafrost, also displayed a delayed DOC peak and more complex seasonal ion concentration patterns. These findings highlight the importance of varying permafrost extents and their implications for water quality and environmental protection in these vulnerable regions.

Deglaciation in the subtropical Andes has led to a peak in sediment delivery

Glaciers are thinning and retreating as climate warms, thus eroding less of the Earth’s surface. However, other hydrological factors in glacierized catchments are likely producing a transient increase in sediment delivery, resulting in ‘peak sediment’. Estimating the trajectory of the peak sediment is ecologically and socially important but scientifically challenging because of the delayed and non-linear response of glacier sediment export to climate forcing. This study used time series of suspended sediment concentration starting in the 1960s from 11 Andean rivers at subtropical latitudes to analyse past changes in sediment export and infer its future behaviour. The recent decade has experienced anomalously high sediment concentration in most glacierized catchments, but the 1970s experienced even higher values. Decadal variations in the relationship between sediment concentration and ice melt suggest that the magnitude of the current decade was lower due to reduced glacial sediment rather than other factors. Combining this result with the fact that glacial runoff is decreasing, it is inferred that, for most of the glacierized catchments, the peak sediment generated by the anthropogenic deglaciation started two centuries ago has already passed its maximum.

Evaluation of the spatial responses in vegetation phenology to drought and the analysis of their driving factors in China

The warming and drying trend accompanying climate change challenges global ecosystem stability. Vegetation phenology, which can serve as a sensitive indicator of climate change, is crucial in understanding ecosystem carbon cycling and climate-carbon cycle feedback. Therefore, assessing the phenological responses to drought is essential for addressing climate change. In this study, vegetation phenology data [including the start and end of season (SOS, EOS) and length of growing season (LOS)] and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) were employed to analyze the impacts of drought on plant phenology in China by maximum Pearson correlation coefficients and partial least squares regression. The findings showed that drought significantly affected the timing of phenology, delaying senescence in approximately 62% of China and extending the growing season in about 53% of the country, indicating the critical role of water availability in vegetation biomass. Preseason nocturnal warming was found to advance SOS, delay EOS, and extend LOS across China, with significant effects observed in approximately 60% of the country. Meanwhile, daytime warming delayed SOS, delayed EOS and extended LOS in 50∼60% of the regions. Moreover, preseason precipitation is conducive to advanced SOS, delayed EOS and extended LOS in northern China and areas susceptible to drought. It is suggested that vegetation management should be strengthened to mitigate the impact of climate change in temperate and drought-prone regions in China since climate warming will lead to frequent droughts.

Expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems

Northern regions are warming faster than the rest of the globe. It is difficult to predict ecosystem responses to warming because the thermal sensitivity of their biophysical components varies. Here, we present an analysis of the authors’ expert judgment regarding the sensitivity of six ecosystem components – permafrost, peatlands, lakes, snowpack, vegetation, and endothermic vertebrates – across northern landscapes ranging from boreal to polar biomes. We identified 28 discontinuous component states across a 3700 km latitudinal gradient in northeastern North America and quantified sensitivity as the transition time from an initial to a contrasting state following a theoretical step change increase in mean annual air temperature of 5 °C. We infer that multiple interconnected state shifts are likely to occur within a narrow subarctic latitudinal band at timescales of 10 to more than 100 years, and response times decrease with latitude. Response times differ between components and across latitudes, which is likely to impair the integrity of ecosystems.

Frozen no more, a case study of Arctic permafrost impacts of oil and gas withdrawal

Approximately 8100 km2 of Alaska are leased to the oil and gas industry for exploration and extraction. According to industry estimates, subsurface expansion from these leases could cover up to 130.2 km2 per pad. As industrial oil extraction activities increase across the thawing Alaskan permafrost, impacts on the permafrost environment will include rapid thaw, increased hydrological flux, and the release of climate warming greenhouse gases. Here, we use remote sensing and field observations to provide a first-order comparison of the direct impacts to the permafrost tundra from oil well pads, and the long-term consequences of a legacy oil pads on the warming North Slope of Alaska. We find that oil well pads on the permafrost accelerate permafrost degradation and persist despite remediation.

Modelling of Indoor Air Quality and Thermal Comfort in Passive Buildings Subjected to External Warm Climate Conditions

Air renewal rate is an important parameter for both indoor air quality and thermal comfort. However, to improve indoor thermal comfort, the air renewal rate to be used, in general, will depend on the outdoor air temperature values. This article presents the modelling of indoor air quality and thermal comfort for occupants of a passive building subject to a climate with warm conditions. The ventilation and shading strategies implemented for the interior spaces are then considered, as well as the use of an underground space for storing cooled air. The indoor air quality is evaluated using the carbon dioxide concentration, and thermal comfort is evaluated using the Predicted Mean Vote index. The geometry of the passive building, with complex topology, is generated using a numerical model. The simulation is performed by Building Thermal Response software, considering the building’s geometry and materials, ventilation, and occupancy, among others. The building studied is a circular auditorium. The auditorium is divided into four semi-circular auditoriums and a central circular space, with vertical glazed windows and horizontal shading devices on its entire outer surface. Typical summer conditions existing in a Mediterranean-type environment were considered. In this work, two cases were simulated: in Case 1, the occupation is verified in the central space and the four semi-circular auditoriums and all spaces are considered as one; in Case 2, the occupation is verified only in each semi-circular auditorium and each one works independently. For both cases, three strategies were applied: A, without shading and geothermal devices; B, with a geothermal device and without a shading device; and C, with both shading and geothermal devices. The airflow rate contributes to improving indoor air quality throughout the day and thermal comfort for occupants, especially in the morning. The geothermal and shading devices improve the thermal comfort level, mainly in the afternoon.

Warm winters lead to increased reproductive effort, but lower reproductive success: Hidden costs of climate warming in a threatened bird

Abstract Climate warming is affecting the phenology and life history of animals around the world. In birds, although warm winters have been shown to advance breeding dates and affect reproductive success in a diverse range of taxa, few studies document whether changes in breeding phenology are associated with variability in reproductive effort by breeders. We leveraged a 37-year dataset on the demography of Aphelocoma coerulescens (Florida Scrub-Jay) to investigate not only whether winter weather affects jay phenology and reproductive success, but also whether winter weather affects overall reproductive effort. Jays bred early but fledged fewer offspring in springs following warm winters. Surprisingly, this reduced reproductive success came at the expense of increased reproductive effort (number of nests built, number of eggs laid, and length of the breeding period across all attempts) by the breeders. Given the well-known trade-off between reproductive effort and survival, we highlight an important but typically unrecognized cost of climate warming on birds, as revealed by a long-term study of a large, well-protected population.

Predicting future impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow in the middle reaches of China's Yellow River

With increasing temperatures, changing weather patterns and ongoing development, it is becoming increasingly important to clarify the evolution mechanism of future regional streamflow processes and their controlling factors. In this study, an integrated framework for watershed streamflow prediction based on a Global Climate Model (GCM), the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model (PLUS), and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was proposed in the middle Yellow River. The results indicate that, compared with the baseline period (1989–2018), levels of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to increase in the next 30 years, resulting in a warmer and wetter regional climate. Under various climate scenarios, the annual streamflow is projected to increase by 49.2–115.1%. The acreage of various land types may have tended to be saturated, and the main land types such as cropland, forest and grassland have little change (−6.6%-0.6%), so the impact on streamflow will be correspondingly reduced. Under various land use scenarios, the annual streamflow is projected to increase by 5.0%–7.3%. The annual average streamflow trends under the combined climate and land use scenarios are consistent with the climate change scenarios, while the mean values corresponding to the combined scenarios are higher than those of the single scenario. Findings show that climate change is the main driver influencing streamflow, with a contribution of 86.3%–95.1%. This study deepens understanding of the change pattern and influence mechanism of the streamflow process, which can provide a scientific basis for the development and refinement of regional ecological construction plans.

Movement behavior of satellite-tagged leatherback turtles from Panama in response to chlorophyll, primary productivity, temperature, and eddy kinetic energy

Leatherback turtles Dermochelys coriacea are globally endangered. This study tracked 30 individuals from the North Atlantic population tagged on the Caribbean Panama rookery (San San Pond Sak protected area, Bocas del Toro) over a period of 3 yr. We used satellite telemetry to investigate the probability that turtles switched between migration and foraging behavioral states as a function of environmental variables. We mapped the extensive migratory routes of these turtles and analyzed these using data derived from remote sensing, including chlorophyll, productivity, and sea surface temperature (SST), to assess how these influence their migratory and foraging behaviors. We also considered oceanographic processes, i.e. mesoscale eddies coinciding with the turtles’ migration paths, to understand their behavioral responses. Our observations revealed that while some turtles undertook extensive migrations to high-use areas in the Northeast and Northwest Atlantic, the majority remained within the boundaries of the Gulf of Mexico. The study effectively differentiated migration and feeding behavior, noting a clear positive relationship between feeding activities and chlorophyll concentration, while productivity played only a marginal role, and no influence was found for SST and mesoscale eddies. This study advances knowledge of North Atlantic leatherback turtle migrations, underscoring the importance of integrated, multidisciplinary marine conservation efforts. Understanding the impact of climate warming on migration paths and food source availability necessitates a holistic approach encompassing changes in physical oceanography, nutrient dynamics, and interactions from plankton to higher trophic levels. Additionally, as leatherback turtles traverse various international territories, the research emphasizes the need for collaborative data collection for their effective protection.

The evolution of thermal performance curves in fungi farmed by attine ant mutualists in aboveground or belowground microclimates.

Fungi are abundant and ecologically important at a global scale, but little is known about whether their thermal adaptations are shaped by biochemical constraints (i.e. the Hotter is Better Model, HBM) or evolutionary tradeoffs (i.e., the Specialist Generalist Model, SGM). We tested these hypotheses by generating thermal performance curves (TPCs) of fungal cultivars farmed by six species of Panamanian fungus-farming 'attine' ants. These fungi represent evolutionary transitions in farming strategies as four cultivars are farmed by ants belowground at stable temperatures near 25°C and two cultivars are farmed aboveground at variable temperatures. We generated TPCs using a common garden experiment confining fungal isolates to different temperatures and then used a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to compare competing temperature sensitivity models. Some thermal performance traits differed consistently across farming strategies, with aboveground cultivars having: 1) higher tolerance to low temperatures (CTLmin) and 2) higher maximum growth rate at the optimal temperature (rmax). However, two core assumptions shared by the HBM or SGM were not supported as aboveground cultivars did not show systematic increases in either their optimal temperature (Topt) or thermal tolerance breadth. These results harness ant farming systems as long-term natural experiments to decouple the effects of environmental thermal variation and innate physiological temperature sensitivity on fungal thermal evolution. The results have clear implications for predicting climate warming induced breaking points in animal-microbe mutualisms.

Extracting the Ultradeep Oil: David Mitchell’s The Bone Clocks

ABSTRACT David Mitchell’s The Bone Clocks reworks the novel form with its generic experimentation, a gesture in response to the transformed geosocial contours of the Anthropocene. Straddling between the realist and the fantastical, the novel decentralizes human perspective that proves increasingly unsatisfactory to confront the complex causality of climate change for imaginative and conceptual limits. In this essay, I argue that Mitchell attends to a conceptual limit imposed by petroculture, one that refuses to connect the future warming climate with the present large-scale combustion of fossil fuels. The temporal disjunction evolves into a strong antagonism between present and future, which can be tellingly revealed by the coupling of realist and fantastical traditions. Mitchell’s genre-blending device therefore pushes the novel form beyond its usual near-sightedness, excavating a deeper layer of climate-induced crisis of human imagination, namely the present’s inability to recognize the delayed effects of its unsustainable consumption pattern. Viewed through an energy-oriented perspective, The Bone Clocks engages with modernity’s ultradeep relationship with oil, complicating our understanding of climate temporality that matters in terms of intergenerational justice.

Carbonate rocks may release more carbon dioxide as climate warms

Carbonate rocks may release more carbon dioxide as climate warms

Flowering in the Northern Hemisphere is delayed by frost after leaf-out

Late spring frosts, occurring after spring phenological events, pose a dire threat to tree growth and forest productivity. With climate warming, earlier spring phenological events have become increasingly common and led to plants experiencing more frequent and severe frost damage. However, the effect of late spring frosts after leaf-out on subsequent flowering phenology in woody species remains unknown. Utilizing 572,734 phenological records of 640 species at 5024 sites from four long-term and large-scale in situ phenological networks across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that late spring frosts following leaf-out significantly delay the onset of the subsequent flowering by approximately 6.0 days. Late-leafing species exhibit greater sensitivity to the frosts than early-leafing species, resulting in a longer delay of 2.5 days in flowering. Trees in warm regions and periods exhibit a more pronounced frost-induced flowering delay compared to those in cold regions and periods. A significant increase in the frequency of late spring frost occurrence is observed in recent decades. Our findings elucidate the intricate relationships among leaf-out, frost, and flowering but also emphasize that the sequential progression of phenological events, rather than individual phenological stages, should be considered when assessing the phenological responses to climate change.

Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Mid–Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin Based on Precipitation Events

In addition to greater precipitation on extreme days of precipitation, preceding and succeeding precipitation (PSP) is often an objective component of flooding in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLRYRB). In this study, focused on the temporal distribution pattern of precipitation, the concept of an extreme precipitation event (EPE), defined as a consecutive precipitation event having at least one daily precipitation extreme, is proposed to consider PSP in an extreme event. We analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of four types of EPEs based on daily data obtained from 130 monitoring stations covering 1960–2019. Extreme precipitation increased significantly over the last 60 years (p < 0.01). The frequency and precipitation amount of single-day EPEs accounted for only 13% and 21%, respectively, while multi-day continuous EPE types that are associated with PSP accounted for 87% and 79%, respectively, confirming the connotations of EPEs. The front and late EPEs under the 100-year return level reached 250 mm and 230 mm, respectively. Furthermore, climate warming could lead to significant increases in the frequency of single-day and late EPEs, particularly in the southern region. The EPE concept may be helpful in exploring disaster-causing processes under extreme weather, and it provides a theoretical basis for deriving the precipitation hazard chain, which is more applicable to basins with long precipitation durations.

Global warming level indicators of climate change and hotspots of exposure

Abstract In the 21st century, a growing population will be exposed to various hazards caused by a warming climate. Here we present a new database of 12 climate change indicators with a total of 42 variants at different global warming levels (GWLs) (1.2 °C–3.5 °C), which is based on global climate and hydrological model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project round 6 and the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project round 3b at 0.5° spatial resolution. It comprises of indicators relating to temperature and precipitation extremes, heatwave events, and hydrological variability. To facilitate the comparison of hazards from different indicators, including for an audience without a scientific background, we have developed a bivariate hazard score which is applied on the grid cell level and incorporates statistics on both the absolute hazard (e.g. low or high precipitation) and the relative change under global warming compared to the reference period (e.g. a large change from low to high precipitation). Additionally, we calculate exposed land area and population through the 21st century for a large set of countries and regions by combining this score with gridded projections of population from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The datasets are intended for use by the wider research community and analysts seeking digestible climate hazard and exposure data summarized by GWLs. To illustrate potential uses of the data, in a preliminary analysis we find that even at 1.5 °C large parts of the land area and population face substantial unavoidable risks from multiple indicators, with 86% of the world’s population exposed to at least three indicators with at least medium hazard using the population projections for SSP2 in the year 2050. This picture only worsens with increasing warming, as the land areas facing the highest number of impacts coincide with some of the most densely populated parts of the world.