Warm Air Masses Research Articles

Trends, Atmospheric Patterns, and Spatial Variability of Heatwaves in an Oceanic Climate Area of NW Iberia

In the Atlantic region of northern Spain, heat extremes were historically rare, but in recent decades, they have become more intense and persistent. This article characterizes heat events in Asturias (NW Spain) between 2001 and 2023, focusing on their frequency, intensity, and duration, as well as their temporal trends. Additionally, it explores the synoptic patterns linked to these episodes to enhance understanding of their occurrence and evolution over the study period. The research is based on official meteorological records, and it distinguishes between officially declared heatwaves (DHs) and significant heat events (SHEs) identified through regional press reports. This methodology enables the study to capture a broader spectrum of heat-related impacts. During the study period, 17 episodes were documented (11 DHs and 6 SHEs). The frequency, intensity, and duration of heat events have significantly increased, particularly since 2016, standing the last two years (2022 and 2023). Both DHs and SHEs have progressively shifted toward the early and late periods of the astronomical summer, with some events occurring during spring and autumn in the second half of the study period (years 2017, 2022, and 2023). Three atmospheric patterns have been identified as responsible for extreme heat episodes; Type 1 (warm tropical continental air masses, combined with atmospheric stability) is responsible for 10 of the episodes. Furthermore, urban areas and main river valleys were the most affected areas, while coastal regions remained largely unaffected. This research aims to contribute to a broader understanding of how heatwaves are evolving in a temperate climate area under the influence of global warming, providing insights to inform and improve adaptation strategies for mitigating their impacts.

Future Climate Change in the Northern Bering Sea

ABSTRACTThe Bering Sea is undergoing major changes from increasing winter temperatures to the north, extreme minimum sea‐ice years in 2018 and 2019, through to an ecosystem reorganisation and negative impacts on communities' economic and subsistence food resources. These events have emerged under a global warming background, with positive feedback processes through a weakened atmospheric Alaskan Arctic Front (AAF) that promotes a self‐reinforcing process of sea‐ice loss, warmer air and sea temperatures, a wavy jet stream, and southerly winds. Interannual variability is still important: during 2021–2024 the Aleutian Low‐pressure system was regionally dominant in supporting a strong AAF, and sea‐ice conditions were observed close to the climatological mean. Before 2017, the AAF, consisting of cold dry air mass to the north and moist relatively warm air mass to the south, was a barrier to northward movement of storms, keeping the northern Bering/Chukchi seas with a cold Arctic climate. That historical situation is ending. Of critical importance is the probable reoccurrence of low Bering Sea sea‐ice years over the next decades and related ecosystem impacts. We propose that radically low sea ice will have a frequency of one to three 2018‐like low sea‐ice events per decade in the coming two decades, based on a historical meteorological analysis and ensemble climate model projections. Arctic temperatures to the north are increasing, weakening their contribution to the AAF. A weakened AAF and low sea‐ice years needs the winter Aleutian low pressure system to be far to the west of its average position, with southerly rather than northeasterly winds, warm years and low sea‐ice extent. From 1948 to 2024 meteorological records, this western location occurred with a range of zero to three times per decade. Communities need to plan for a response to intermittent occurrence of 2018‐like extreme sea‐ice loss and their ecosystem impacts over the coming decades.

The influence of specific weather types on stroke occurrence: an analysis of 23,000 patients from Augsburg, Germany

ABSTRACT For the first time, the relationships between large-scale weather types and local stroke events in the urban area of Augsburg, Germany are analyzed. Over 23,000 stroke cases (2006 – 2020) were standardized to account for long-term trends and seasonality. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, a composite analysis identified stroke-related atmospheric variables, while seasonal weather types were classified via the neural network algorithm of self-organizing maps. Cyclonic westerlies during the cold season, which transport warm air masses from the Atlantic Ocean to Germany, were a major risk factor for ischemic stroke, while colder easterly conditions reduced stroke incidence. In the warm season, both anticyclonic conditions and westerly/northerly air advection, leading to slightly warmer or distinctly colder temperatures, were linked to increased ischemic stroke risk. Additionally, hemorrhagic strokes in the cold season were triggered by weather conditions contrary to those associated with ischemic strokes and transitory ischemic attacks.

Thermal effect of the Southeast Asian low-latitude highlands on interannual variability in the date of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon onset

The timing of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon (BOBSM) onset has implications for the evolution of the Asian summer monsoon and associated precipitation. This study employs Japanese 55-year Reanalysis and NOAA's Gridded Precipitation Reconstruction over Land data to explore the spatiotemporal variation in the thermal influence of the Southeast Asian low-latitude highlands (SEALLH) and its effect on the BOBSM onset date. There is a significant correlation between pre-monsoon season (February–April) shortwave radiative heating (SWH) in the SEALLH and BOBSM onset in the interannual time scale. During the enhanced SWH, an anomalous vertical circulation, which converges and ascends in the lower troposphere over the SEALLH and converges and descends in the upper troposphere north of the Bay of Bengal (BOB), develops over the SEALLH–north of BOB during the pre-monsoon season with anticlockwise rotation. The warmer air mass resulting from the adiabatic heating is accumulated around the north of BOB by the insulation effect related to the anomalous vertical circulation. By facilitating the reversal of the land-sea thermal contrast, the warmer upper troposphere over the north of the BOB causes a 16-day earlier onset of the BOBSM than the case of weakened SWH. The findings shed light on subsequent research into the thermal effects of the SEALLH on Asian summer monsoon variability.

Raindrop Size Distribution Characteristics of the Precipitation Process of 2216 Typhoon “Noru” in the Xisha Region

This study focuses on the comparative analysis and research of the raindrop size distribution (DSD) in the outer rainband and inner rainband of Typhoon “Noru” in 2022, using the OTT-Parsivel raindrop spectrometer deployed on Yongxing Island, Sansha City. The results indicate that precipitation intensity is lower when composed mainly of small and medium raindrops and increases with the presence of larger raindrops. Stronger precipitation is associated with a higher number of large raindrops. Due to the interaction of cold and warm air masses, the raindrop concentration is higher, and the raindrop diameters are larger compared to Typhoons “LEKIMA” and “RUMBIA”. The entire process predominantly consists of numerous small- to medium-sized raindrops, characteristic of a tropical typhoon. The precipitation in the inner and outer rainbands exhibits consistent types, characterized by a unimodal raindrop size distribution with a narrow spectral width, typical of stratiform-mixed cloud precipitation, where stratiform precipitation constitutes a significant portion. Strong echo reflectivity factors are often associated with higher raindrop number concentrations and larger particle sizes. The Z-R relationship of the precipitation shows a smaller coefficient but a consistent exponent compared to the standard. The calculated shape parameter slope relationship is Λ=0.02μ2+0.696μ+1.539, providing a reference for localizing the Z-R relationship in the South China Sea.

Antarctic Warm Extremes Across Seasons and Their Response to Advection

AbstractAntarctic warm extremes impact the cryosphere, with very warm extremes driving surface melt on ice shelves. Here, we analyze temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile and the associated circulation patterns and radiation anomalies. ERA5 reanalysis data show positive geopotential height anomalies related to the occurrence of warm extremes. The highest temperature during warm extremes appears on the western periphery of high‐pressure systems, consistent with anticyclonic advection. Temperature anomalies during warm extremes are strongest in winter due to the transport of warm and moist air and a strong meridional temperature gradient. In summer, the weak meridional gradients of top‐of‐atmosphere downward solar radiation flux and surface air temperature contribute to weak temperature anomalies. Warm extremes are associated with positive longwave radiation anomalies in all seasons, but with negative shortwave radiation anomalies at the surface except during polar night. These relationships are verified by station observations. Our results confirm that Antarctic warm extremes are mostly driven by meridional advection of warm air, and suggest that these warm air masses are predominantly moist and cloudy.

The impact of evolving synoptic weather patterns on multi-scale transport and sources of persistent high-concentration ozone pollution event in the Yangtze River Delta, China

High-concentration ozone pollution pose threats to ecosystems and human health. However, there is limited research on the impact of the alternating evolution of synoptic weather patterns (SWPs) on the multi-scale transport processes and sources of ozone. From June 14 to 18, 2018, a rare consecutive ozone pollution plagued in Hefei and broader Yangtze River Delta region (YRD). This study investigates the meteorological factors and sources using in-situ observational data and WRF-Chem model simulations. Analysis reveals a northeastern low-pressure system moving from north to south generated a cold front. This moving cold front facilitated the vertical transport of warm air masses carrying high-concentration ozone originating from North China. Subsequently, Ozone-rich air masses (ORMs) were transported over the YRD, influenced by the eastward movement of the Mongolian high-pressure system. Based on WRF-Chem model with NOx tagging mechanisms and WRF-FLEXPART backward simulations, it is confirmed that a notable atmospheric transport originated from North China region (NCR) to Hefei, especially on June 15. As the Mongolian high-pressure weakens and shifts east-southward, it carried ORMs generated by NOx emissions from the YRD, accumulating over the sea within the range of 120°E to 126°E and 25°N to 30°N. Both WRF-chem model results and TRopospheric Ozone and Precursors from Earth System Sounding (TROPESS) Chemistry Reanalysis dataset Version 2 (TCR-2) revealed the existence of ORMs in this geographic range. Subsequently, the ORMs carried out to sea by the weakened high-pressure system were reintroduced inland, influenced by southeast winds brought about by the peripheral circulation of typhoon “Gaemi”. In summary, the alternating evolution of SWPs significantly influences multi-scale ozone transport from both the NCR and the YRD regions, making substantial contributions to this prolonged episode. These findings offer valuable insights for improving regional ozone pollution prevention and control mechanisms.

Contrasting extremely warm and long-lasting cold air anomalies in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic during the HALO-(𝒜 𝒞)3 campaign

Abstract. How air masses transform during meridional transport into and out of the Arctic is not well represented by numerical models. The airborne field campaign HALO-(𝒜𝒞)3 applied the High Altitude and Long-range Research Aircraft (HALO) within the framework of the collaborative research project on Arctic amplification (𝒜𝒞)3 to address this question by providing a comprehensive observational basis. The campaign took place from 7 March to 12 April 2022 in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic, a main gateway of atmospheric transport into and out of the Arctic. Here, we investigate to which degree the meteorological and sea ice conditions during the campaign align with the long-term climatology (1979–2022). For this purpose, we use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis v5 (ERA5), satellite data, and measurements at Ny-Ålesund, including atmospheric soundings. The observations and reanalysis data revealed two distinct periods with different weather conditions during HALO-(𝒜𝒞)3: the campaign started with a warm period (11–20 March 2022) where strong southerly winds prevailed that caused poleward transport of warm and moist air masses, so-called moist and warm air intrusions (WAIs). Two WAI events were identified as atmospheric rivers (ARs), which are narrow bands of strong moisture transport. These warm and moist air masses caused the highest measured 2 m temperatures (5.5 °C) and daily precipitation rates (42 mm d−1) at Ny-Ålesund for March since the beginning of the record (1993). Over the sea ice northwest of Svalbard, ERA5 indicated record-breaking rainfall. After the passage of a strong cyclone on 21 March 2022, a cold period followed. Northerly winds advected cold air into the Fram Strait, causing marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) until the end of the campaign. This second phase included one of the longest MCAO events found in the ERA5 record (19 d). On average, the entire campaign period was warmer than the climatological mean due to the strong influence of the ARs. In the Fram Strait, the sea ice concentration was well within the climatological variability over the entire campaign duration. However, during the warm period, a large polynya opened northeast of Svalbard, untypical for this season. Compared to previous airborne field campaigns focusing on the evolution of (mixed-phase) clouds, a larger variety of MCAO conditions was observed during HALO-(𝒜𝒞)3. In summary, air mass transport into and out of the Arctic was more pronounced than usual, providing exciting prospects for studying air mass transformation using HALO-(𝒜𝒞)3.

A case study on more recent heat wave occurred in South Africa, based on background weather synoptic and dynamic characteristics analysis

This study investigates the characteristics of the more recent heat wave episode in South Africa during January 2023. The evaluation of several meteorological parameters using different reanalysis models and observational datasets have demonstrated that the domination of the anticyclonic pattern over the study area associated with a omega-blocking high. The dominant subtropical Botswana subtropical high along with the low-level omega blocking high pressure over South Africa is one of the main factors for the abnormally hot weather event. The upper-level anomaly wind analysis illustrates the weakening of the zonal wind accompanied by the Rossby waves meridionally stretching. Also, this is correlated to abnormal both tropical easterly and southern westerly jets meandering around an omega-blocking pattern weather system over South Africa which causes warm air mass trapping over the study region. The outcome model results prove the anomalies of the surface higher temperature happened close to the center of the blocking high, where an intensified southward shift of the easterly tropical jet along with the northward shift (jet entrance) of an intensified westerly jet formed two strong cores creating confluent. This research also shows that the January heat wave is demonstrated by an anomalous upper tropospheric anticyclonic inflow (southern hemisphere) causing the strong subsidence, resulting in the surface temperature increase. In comparison with the heat wave event in January 2016, the current study displays the high impact of the internal and local dynamical processes. Also, the current case study addressed in drier condition with less health risk than the previous case study noticed in 2016.

Tracking rapid ice recession in a major Southern Alps valley during the last glacial termination

The last glacial termination featured a major reconfiguration of Earth's climate and cryosphere, whose underlying cause remains unresolved. To investigate this problem, we combine 10Be surface-exposure dating of moraines with former equilibrium line altitudes to determine the magnitude and timing of atmospheric temperature warming that ended the Last Glaciation in the Takapō/Tekapo valley in the central Southern Alps of New Zealand. We show mountain-valley glacier recession from a nearly full-glacial configuration to a near-interglacial configuration early in the termination between ∼18,000 and ∼17,000 yrs ago, commensurate with a net atmospheric warming of ∼3.8 °C (from −6.25 °C to −2.5 °C cooler than present). Similar recession also affected mid-latitude mountain glaciers in South America. We suggest trans-South Pacific glacier withdrawal early in the termination resulted from a decisive poleward shift of the austral westerlies that increased the proportion of warm subtropical air masses flowing over southern mid-latitude mountains, markedly raising glacier ablation rates. Farther south, the poleward-shifted westerlies drove increased ocean upwelling and surface warming, outgassing of carbon dioxide, and progressive ocean destratification, together raising atmospheric temperature over the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but at a rate slower than over mid-latitude mountain glaciers. Overall, we consider that Southern Hemisphere middle-latitude glacier recession was linked to Antarctic warming by a poleward displacement in latitude and an increase in strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies.

The effects of warm-air intrusions in the high Arctic on cirrus clouds

Abstract. Warm-air intrusions (WAIs) are responsible for the transportation of warm and moist air masses from the mid-latitudes into the high Arctic (> 70° N). In this work, we study cirrus clouds that form during WAI events (WAI cirrus) and during undisturbed Arctic conditions (AC cirrus) and investigate possible differences between the two cloud types based on their macrophysical and optical properties with a focus on relative humidity over ice (RHi). We use airborne measurements from the combined high-spectral-resolution and differential-absorption lidar, WALES, performed during the HALO-(AC)3 campaign. We classify each research flight and the measured clouds as either AC or WAI, based on the ambient conditions, and study the macrophysical, geometrical and optical characteristics for each cirrus group. As our main parameter we choose the relative humidity over ice (RHi), which we calculate RHi by combining the lidar water vapor measurements with model temperatures. Ice formation occurs at certain RHi values depending on the dominant nucleation process taking place. RHi can thus be used as an indication of the nucleation process and the structure of cirrus clouds. We find that during WAI events the Arctic is warmer and moister and WAI cirrus clouds are both geometrically and optically thicker compared to AC cirrus. WAI cirrus clouds and the layer directly surrounding them are more frequently supersaturated, also at high supersaturations over the threshold for homogeneous ice nucleation (HOM). AC cirrus clouds have a supersaturation-dominated cloud top and a subsaturated cloud base. WAI cirrus clouds also have high supersaturations at cloud top but also at cloud base.

Meteorological Characteristics of a Continuous Ice-Covered Event on Ultra-High Voltage Transmission Lines in Yunnan Region in 2021

Yunnan plays a pivotal role in transmitting electricity from west to east within China’s Southern Power Grid. During 7–13 January 2021, a large-scale continuous ice-covering event of ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission lines occurred in the Qujing area of eastern Yunnan Province. Based on ERA5 reanalysis data and meteorological observation data of UHV transmission line icing in China’s Southern Power Grid, the synoptic causes of the icing are comprehensively analyzed from various perspectives, including weather situations, vertical stratification of temperature and humidity, local meteorological elements, and atmospheric circulation indices. The results indicate a strong East Asian trough and a blocking high directing northern airflow southward ahead of the ridge. Cold air enters the Qujing area and combines with warm and moist air from the subtropical high pressure of 50–110° E. As warm and cold air masses form a quasi-stationary front over the northern mountainous area of Qujing due to topographic uplift, the mechanism of “supercooling and warm rain” caused by the “warm–cold” temperature profile structure leads to freezing rain events. Large-scale circulation indices in the Siberian High, East Asian Trough, and 50–110° E Subtropical High regions provided clear precursor signals within 0–2 days before the icing events.

Problem of increased humidity in ice arenas and possible solutions

This paper reviews the problem of high humidity in an ice arena in Sochi and ways of solving it. The authors consider the ventilation system structure and determine the causes of the high humidity—moisture in the water vapor forms and a cold surface of ice cools the surrounding space and objects. The consequences of this air state are fogging over the ice surface, namely, condensate formation, which exacerbates the quality of the ice rink, corrosion of steel and iron structures, and mold attack. In addition, the facility microclimate is uncomfortable for people to stay there. During this study, the authors identified several ways to achieve the necessary indoor air parameters. The first method is sorption dehumidification. This system can function at low temperatures and cope with extreme dampness, but it has significant costs. The second method, which is simpler and more effective, is assimilation. This method is based on the ability of warm air masses to hold a larger amount of water vapor than cold air masses. This method for improving the air parameters is more effective when required to modify an existing ventilation system. In this particular case, in the ice arena in Sochi, assimilation was the most effective method. Air coolers with a drift eliminator were installed in the existing ventilation system. The calculation of the selected heat exchangers was performed using ventilation equipment selection software (VESS).

Assessing the impact and resilience of the community in the aftermath of a small-scale tornado: A field survey-based analysis

Extreme weather can lead to the formation of small-scale tornadoes. Tornadoes are generated by cumulonimbus clouds resulting from convection or orographic lifting of an unstable air mass interacting with a relatively warm air mass within a frontal boundary. The village of Donohudan experienced a small-scale tornado event that resulted in damage to buildings, yards, power infrastructure, and injuries to individuals. This was the first time the community faced a small-scale tornado event, leading to a lack of understanding in handling the aftermath. The aim of this research is to analyze the impact of and resilience to small-scale tornadoes among the population. The research methodology involves field surveys to determine the extent of damage based on the Beaufort scale. The Connor Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC) is employed as a measurement criterion to assess community resilience. The predominant damages were light structural damages and flying roofs caused by the small-scale tornado. Donohudan village demonstrated a moderate level of resilience to small-scale tornadoes, influenced by factors such as flexibility in adapting to changes and challenges, support from family and social networks, spiritual influence, and having a goal-oriented life.

Composition and sources of carbonaceous aerosol in the European Arctic at Zeppelin Observatory, Svalbard (2017 to 2020)

Abstract. We analyzed long-term measurements of organic carbon, elemental carbon, and source-specific organic tracers from 2017 to 2020 to constrain carbonaceous aerosol sources in the rapidly changing Arctic. Additionally, we used absorption photometer (Aethalometer) measurements to constrain equivalent black carbon (eBC) from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion, using positive matrix factorization (PMF). Our analysis shows that organic tracers are essential for understanding Arctic carbonaceous aerosol sources. Throughout 2017 to 2020, levoglucosan exhibited bimodal seasonality, reflecting emissions from residential wood combustion (RWC) in the heating season (November to May) and from wildfires (WFs) in the non-heating season (June to October), demonstrating a pronounced interannual variability in the influence of WF. Biogenic secondary organic aerosol (BSOA) species (2-methyltetrols) from isoprene oxidation was only present in the non-heating season, peaking in July to August. Warm air masses from Siberia led to a substantial increase in 2-methyltetrols in 2019 and 2020 compared to 2017 to 2018. This highlights the need to investigate the contribution of local sources vs. long-range atmospheric transport (LRT), considering the temperature sensitivity of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from Arctic vegetation. Tracers of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs), including various sugars and sugar alcohols, showed elevated levels in the non-heating season, although with different seasonal trends, whereas cellulose had no apparent seasonality. Most PBAP tracers and 2-methyltetrols peaked during influence of WF emissions, highlighting the importance of measuring a range of source-specific tracers to understand sources and dynamics of carbonaceous aerosol. The seasonality of carbonaceous aerosol was strongly influenced by LRT episodes, as background levels are extremely low. In the non-heating season, the organic aerosol peak was as influenced by LRT, as was elemental carbon during the Arctic haze period. Source apportionment of carbonaceous aerosol by Latin hypercube sampling showed mixed contributions from RWC (46 %), fossil fuel (FF) sources (27 %), and BSOA (25 %) in the heating season. In contrast, the non-heating season was dominated by BSOA (56 %), with lower contributions from WF (26 %) and FF sources (15 %). Source apportionment of eBC by PMF showed that FF combustion dominated eBC (70±2.7 %), whereas RWC (22±2.7 %) was more abundant than WF (8.0±2.9 %). Modeled BC concentrations from FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model) attributed an almost equal share to FF sources (51±3.1 %) and to biomass burning. Both FLEXPART and the PMF analysis concluded that RWC is a more important source of (e)BC than WF. However, with a modeled RWC contribution of 30±4.1 % and WF of 19±2.8 %, FLEXPART suggests relatively higher contributions to eBC from these sources. Notably, the BB fraction of EC was twice as high as that of eBC, reflecting methodological differences between source apportionment by LHS and PMF. However, important conclusions drawn are unaffected, as both methods indicate the presence of RWC- and WF-sourced BC at Zeppelin, with a higher relative BB contribution during the non-heating season. In summary, organic aerosol (281±106 ng m−3) constitutes a significant fraction of Arctic PM10, although surpassed by sea salt aerosol (682±46.9 ng m−3), mineral dust (613±368 ng m−3), and typically non-sea-salt sulfate SO42- (314±62.6 ng m−3), originating mainly from anthropogenic sources in winter and from natural sources in summer.

The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part II: Impacts on the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. In Part I, we assessed the meteorological drivers that generated an intense atmospheric river (AR) that caused these record-shattering temperature anomalies. Here, we continue our large collaborative study by analyzing the widespread and diverse impacts driven by the AR landfall. These impacts included widespread rain and surface melt that was recorded along coastal areas, but this was outweighed by widespread high snowfall accumulations resulting in a largely positive surface mass balance contribution to the East Antarctic region. An analysis of the surface energy budget indicated that widespread downward longwave radiation anomalies caused by large cloud-liquid water contents along with some scattered solar radiation produced intense surface warming. Isotope measurements of the moisture were highly elevated, likely imprinting a strong signal for past climate reconstructions. The AR event attenuated cosmic ray measurements at Concordia, something previously never observed. Last, an extratropical cyclone west of the AR landfall likely triggered the final collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf while further reducing an already record low sea ice extent. Significance Statement Using our diverse collective expertise, we explored the impacts from the March 2022 heat wave and atmospheric river across East Antarctica. One key takeaway is that the Antarctic cryosphere is highly sensitive to meteorological extremes originating from the midlatitudes and subtropics. Despite the large positive temperature anomalies driven from strong downward longwave radiation, this event led to huge amounts of snowfall across the Antarctic interior desert. The isotopes in this snow of warm airmass origin will likely be detectable in future ice cores and potentially distort past climate reconstructions. Even measurements of space activity were affected. Also, the swells generated from this storm helped to trigger the final collapse of an already critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf while further degrading sea ice coverage.

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Components of Winter Temperature Changes in Western Canada, 1950–2020

Abstract Most of the globe has experienced significant warming trends that have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, these rates of warming are also influenced by short-term climate fluctuations driven by atmospheric circulation dynamics, resulting in inconsistent trend magnitudes in both time and space. This research evaluated winter (December–February) temperature trends over 1950–2020 at 91 climate stations across British Columbia (BC), Alberta (AB), and Saskatchewan (SK), Canada, and determined the components attributed to thermodynamic and dynamic (atmospheric circulation) factors. A synoptic climatological approach was used to classify atmospheric circulation patterns in the midtroposphere, relate those patterns to surface temperature, and evaluate changes in frequency. Moderate to high temperature increases over 71 years were found for most of the region, averaging 3.1°C in southern SK to 4.1°C in central-northern AB, and a maximum of 5.8°C in northern BC. Low to moderate increases were found for southern BC, averaging 1.2°C. Changes in atmospheric circulation accounted for 29% and 31% of observed temperature changes in central-northern BC and AB, respectively. Dynamic factors were a moderate driver in southern AB (18%) and central-northern SK (13%), and low in southern SK (5%). Negative dynamic contributions in southern BC (−6%), suggest that atmospheric circulation changes counteracted thermodynamically driven temperature changes. Results were consistent with trend analyses, indicating this method is well suited for trend detection and identification of thermodynamic and dynamic drivers. Results of this research improve our understanding of the magnitude of winter temperature changes critical for informing adaptation and climate-related policy decisions. Significance Statement Winter temperatures are strongly influenced by atmospheric circulation patterns, which move warm or cold air masses over large distances. We wanted to understand how changes in atmospheric circulation affect observed changes in winter temperatures in three provinces in western Canada. This also helps us to understand how much temperature change is due to anthropogenic (e.g., caused by greenhouse gases and land cover changes) and naturally occurring changes to Earth’s energy balance. Our results highlight the importance of understanding variability when selecting a time series for trend analyses or climate baselines for modeling studies. This study also helps to inform climate-related policies, decision-making, and adaptation strategies.

Strengthening Relationship between the AO and the Occurrence Frequency of Arctic Daily Warming since the 1980s

Abstract Recently, the occurrence of Arctic winter daily warming events has attracted substantial attention from the media and scholars alike. Herein, these events are investigated further, particularly in respect of their relation with the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We define a Pacific pattern–Arctic rapid tropospheric daily warming (Pacific-RTDW) event, when the Arctic winter daily warming is triggered by a warm humid air mass that is transported by storms from the North Pacific into the Arctic. An anomalous northwest–southeast dipole pattern at 500-hPa geopotential is identified spanning from the Arctic to the North Pacific and associated with AO. The dipole pattern could favor the occurrence of Pacific-RTDW events because it induces a strong southerly in the middle troposphere, which mid-high-latitude storms may follow into the Arctic. In particular, the correlation between AO and the occurrence frequency of Pacific-RTDW events has strengthened since the early 1980s. This shift is attributed to the intensified Pacific storm-track (PST) activity intensity, which is possibly related to the phase transition of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and has induced stronger synoptic-scale eddy feedbacks to low-frequency flows since this period. Accordingly, stronger feedbacks of the synoptic-scale eddies could provide a favorable condition for the formation of such a dipole pattern associated with the AO, bolstering the connection between AO and Pacific-RTDW events. In contrast, the eddy feedback to the flow is not strong enough and is, therefore, unable to provide favorable conditions before this period due to the comparatively weak PST intensity. Significance Statement The Arctic winter daily warming event may lead to more severe cold air outbreaks invading the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. We explored the climatic conditions favorable for the occurrence of Arctic winter daily warming events, thereby revealing that the correlated atmospheric circulation features a northwest–southeast dipole pattern. Additionally, since the early 1980s, the intensified Pacific storm-track activity is believed to have contributed to strengthening of the correlation between the Arctic Oscillation and the occurrence frequency of Arctic winter daily warming events. The findings here are expected to assist in prediction of future Arctic winter daily warming events.

Refractivity Observations from Radar Phase Measurements: The 22 May 2002 Dryline Case during IHOP Project

The dryline, often associated with the development of severe storms in the Southern Great Plains of the United States of America, is a boundary layer phenomenon that occurs when a warm and moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico meets a hot and dry air mass from the southwest desert area. An accurate knowledge of the water vapor spatio-temporal variability in the lower part of the atmosphere is crucial for a better understanding of the evolution of the dryline. The tropospheric refractivity, directly related to water vapor content, is a proxy for the water vapor content of the troposphere. It has already been demonstrated that the refractivity and the refractivity vertical gradient can be jointly estimated from radar phase measurements. In fact, it has been shown that using kriging interpolation techniques, accurate refractivity maps within the coverage area of the radar can be obtained with high temporal resolution. In this paper, a detailed analysis of the time series of radar-based refractivity maps obtained during a dryline that occurred on the afternoon of 22 May 2002 during the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) is presented. Comparisons between the time series of radar refractivity maps, obtained with the NCAR S-Pol radar, and the refractivity measurements derived from automatic ground-based weather stations and the AERI instrument, placed at different locations within the coverage area of the NCAR S-Pol radar, demonstrate the accuracy of radar refractivity estimates even for highly variable conditions, both in time and space, in the troposphere. Correlation coefficients higher than 0.95 are obtained in all weather station locations. Regarding the RMSE, errors less than 6 N-units are obtained for all cases, being even as low as 2.92 N-units at some locations.

Wind Farm Blockage Revealed by Fog: The 2018 Horns Rev Photo Case

Fog conditions at the offshore wind farm Horns Rev 2 were photographed on 16 April 2018. In this study, we present the results of an analysis of the meteorological conditions on the day of the photographs. The aim of the study was to examine satellite images, meteorological observations, wind turbine data, lidar data, reanalysis data, and wake and blockage model results to assess whether wind farm blockage was a likely cause for the formation of fog upstream of the wind farm. The analysis indicated the advection of warm and moist air mass from the southwest over a cool ocean, causing cold sea fog. Wind speeds at hub height were slightly above cut-in, and there was a strong veer in the shallow stable boundary layer. The most important finding is that the wake and blockage model indicated stagnant air mass arcs to the south and west of the wind farm. In the photographs, sea fog is visible in approximately the same area. Therefore, it is likely that the reduced wind triggered the sea fog condensation due to blockage in this area. A discrepancy between the blockage model and sea fog in the photographs appears in the southwest direction. Slightly higher winds might have occurred locally in a southwesterly direction, which may have dissolved sea fog. The wake model predicted long and narrow wind turbine wakes similar to those observed in the photographs. The novelty of the study is new evidence of wind farm blockage. It fills the gap in knowledge about flow in wind farms. Implications for future research include advanced modeling of flow phenomena near large offshore wind farms relevant to wind farm operators.