Warm Phase Of ENSO Research Articles

Empirical orthogonal function analysis of lightning flashes over India

Lightning studies are highly focused on spatial and temporal variability in various scales but very limited studies are focused on dominant spatial modes of variability. This study intends to identify the possible spatial modes of climate variability of lightning over India during different seasons and relate them to regional and large-scale climate modes. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of lightning has been carried out and the first three orthogonally independent modes are considered in order to retrieve the maximum variance explained by each mode. To understand the role of remote and local teleconnections on the lightning flash rate (LFR) variability, we have analyzed two Pacific Ocean modes (El Niño Southern Oscillation; ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation; PDO) and two Indian Ocean modes (Indian Ocean Dipole; IOD and Bay of Bengal (BOB) meridional Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradient). First mode is positively correlated with the warm phase of ENSO and PDO whereas second and third modes are negatively correlated with the warm phase of ENSO and PDO during pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter. Reverse is true for the monsoon season due to the shift in walker cell caused by the changes in the location of the heat sources and sinks. A strong positive correlation of IOD and BOB meridional SST gradient with first mode, suggests the vital role of nearby Indian Ocean in explaining the typical lightning flashes over India due to the enhanced zonal and meridional circulation, thereby moisture supply to the Indian subcontinent. The impact of Nino-3.4, IOD and BOB meridional SST gradient on lightning over India further suggest the role of SST in local and remote influence on lightning variability through the distribution and transport of heat and moisture.

Climate-related habitat variations of Humboldt squid in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean

An integrated habitat suitability index (HSI) model was developed in this study for Dosidicus gigas in the eastern equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean to explore climate-related spatial and temporal variability in the habitat distribution pattern based on three crucial environmental variables: sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a). Results revealed that the HSI model could accurately predict potential habitats for D. gigas. The habitat suitability varied significantly by month, with highest suitability in April and lowest in March. Besides, from December to May, the longitudinal gravity center of the fishing grounds (LONG) and the HSI overall shifted eastward and the latitudinal gravity center shifted northward then southward. In comparison to the warm ENSO phases in 2019, the cold ENSO phases in 2018 produced increased suitable habitat from December to May, leading to a significantly higher CPUE. Prospective high-quality habitats in 2018 primarily occurred in the western regions, with the exception of December, which resulted in a more westward distribution of LONG from January to May. High-quality habitats moved northward from December to February and southward from March to May 2018, compared to minor latitudinal movement in 2019. It was inferred that annual variations in squid abundance and distribution were largely affected by the SST-related habitat pattern of D. gigas in the eastern equatorial waters. Our findings suggested that D. gigas habitats clearly varied by month and year and were greatly influenced by climate-induced environmental changes.

Impacts of monsoon break events in the western North Pacific on the cross-equatorial flows over the Maritime Continent

This study examines the possible impacts of western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon break events on the cross-equatorial flows (CEFs) over the Maritime Continent using daily data from ERA5 for 1979–2020. It reveals that WNP monsoon break events can cause significant weakening of CEF in the both upper and lower troposphere, i.e., weaker southerlies in the lower level and northerlies in the upper level. These CEF anomalies are associated with a baroclinic structure of circulation anomalies over the WNP, consisting of upper-level cyclonic and lower-level anticyclonic anomalies. Furthermore, statistical analysis indicates that WNP monsoon break events correspond more closely to weakening of upper-level CEF, in comparison with lower-level CEF: 92% of WNP monsoon break events correspond to upper-level CEF weakening, while this decreases to 70% for lower-level CEF. This relatively lower proportion for lower-level CEF is largely attributable to the impact of the warm phase of ENSO.摘要本文利用ERA5逐日再分析资料, 探讨了1979–2020年间西北太平洋季风中断事件对海洋性大陆越赤道气流的影响. 合成结果表明, 西北太平洋季风中断事件会造成高, 低空越赤道气流减弱, 即高层南风异常, 低层北风异常, 与此相关的环流异常表现为西北太平洋高层气旋, 低层反气旋的斜压结构. 特别的是, 西北太平洋季风中断对高空越赤道气流的影响更为显著, 92%的季风中断事件都导致高空越赤道气流减弱, 而只有70%的事件造成低空越赤道气流减弱, 这是由于低空越赤道气流同时还受到赤道中东太平洋海温异常的调控.

ENSO‐Related Precipitation Variability in Central Chile: The Role of Large Scale Moisture Transport

AbstractInterannual variability of precipitation in Central Chile has long been associated with changes in the dry atmospheric dynamics of the Southern Pacific. This is due to the interaction between the extratropical storm track and the polar anticyclonic circulations established by the Pacific South American (PSA) teleconnection mode, which results from changes in tropical convection. Here, we show that an enhanced subtropical moisture transport during the warm ENSO phase leads to an increase in the frequency of atmospheric rivers, larger values of precipitable water, and heightened zonal integrated water vapor transport. This occurs in a region of the Southern Pacific situated between the tropical high and the subtropical low of the PSA mode. These increases in zonal water vapor transport result in greater precipitation and moister, long‐lived atmospheric rivers making landfall in Central Chile.

ENSO‐Related Southern Hemisphere Blocking Dynamics

AbstractThis study establishes a new blocking climatology in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) by using the improved detection method with the reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016. Furthermore, it investigates the dynamical linkage between SH blocking and ENSO phases. It is found that the ENSO warm phase is more conducive to the blocking formation than the cold phase while the blocking intensity is not affected by the ENSO phases. In addition, blocking in ENSO warm phase is characterized with upper‐level divergence anomaly and the cold phase with convergence anomaly equatorward of blocking onset region. Through the diagnostic analysis of tropopause divergence for the composite blocking events via an improved divergence tendency equation, the study shows that the ageostrophic effect exhibits dual effects, namely, it induces anticyclonic ageostrophic vorticity favoring the formation of blocking whereas it results in convergence anomaly close to the blocking onset region thus inhibiting blocking locally. In addition, the nonlinear term in the divergence tendency equation is found to be a dominant forcing for favoring blocking onset. Nevertheless, despite the primary contributions from the ageostrophic effect and nonlinear term to blocking formation, they could barely explain the SH blocking onset preference in ENSO warm phase. Finally, through the localized Eliassen‐Palm flux this study reveals that in ENSO warm phase the composite blocking onset region and the immediate upstream region are characterized by more localized EP flux convergence, thereby leading to more effective westerly wind weakening and favoring the blocking formation.

Impact of ENSO on the Entrance of the Indonesian Throughflow: The Oceanic Wave Propagation

AbstractA regional ocean model simulation for the period from 2000 through 2016 is used to study oceanic wave propagation in the Indonesian seas. The model simulation compares favorably with the interannual variability of the satellite derived sea level anomaly and the observed currents in the entrance passages of ITF. Lag correlation analysis suggests that the interannual sea level anomaly and opposite responses of the velocity above and below the thermocline in the western (the Sulawesi Sea and the Makassar Strait) and eastern (the Halmahera Sea) pathways of ITF are associated with the ENSO induced Rossby waves from the equatorial Pacific rather than the local wind forcing. In particular, during La Niña years ENSO induced anomalies traveling through the western pathway are comparable to those through the traditional eastern waveguide, suggesting the importance of both pathways in the propagation of ENSO signals in the Indonesian seas. Different roles of the western and eastern pathways in transmitting the ENSO signals into the Indonesian seas are associated with the nonlinear processes in the Sulawesi Sea, which appears to be linked with different states of the western boundary currents during the warm and cold ENSO phases.

Impact of the ENSO phenomenon on wave variability in the Pacific Ocean for wind sea and swell waves

Using wave data from 1960 to 1990 from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis ERA-40 dataset and the ERA-5 reanalysis dataset (1990–2018), this paper presents a comprehensive study on the spatial and temporal variability of wind sea wave height (Hw), swell wave height (Hsw) and mixed significant wave height (Hs) in the Pacific during the warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) ENSO phases. The main findings show that During DJF, the Hsw is dominated by strong winds and large waves from extratropical cyclones in the North Pacific, especially from 1960 to 1990. However, from 1990–2018 these maximum values extend into the subtropical crest of the Pacific Ocean and the southeast trade winds increase during La Niña. The annual cycle of Hw, Hsw and Hs for specific points located from the west center toward the east center along the equatorial Pacific for the analyzed decades show a strong transition in the locations of the maximum and minimum values during the year. In this sense, the eastern point is more highly influenced by the swell systems that flow from the northwest and southwest of the southern hemisphere associated with the intensification of winds during the occurrence of La Niña. It is therefore not possible to determine a single period of maximum and minimum values. During the decades of 1990–2018, the difference in swell wave height during La Niña compared to El Niño increased throughout the year compared to 1960–1990. During the 1960–1990 period, the maximum values were detected in JJA for both El Niño and La Niña in an area that extends from Perú and ends toward the eastern center of the Colombian Pacific Basin.

The Panama Low Level Jet: extension, annual cycle and modes of variation

The Panama Low Level Jet (PLLJ) is the inter-isthmic jet closest to the equator, whose activation modifies circulation, sea surface temperature and climate in most of the Eastern Tropical Pacific off Colombia. Through the analysis of 26 years (1992-2018) of sea wind data, the extent of the jet and its main frequencies of variability were determined, in addition to its relationship with phenomena of climatic variability. The area of direct influence of the jet was estimated to be 59295.34 km², being located between 4.63° and 9oN. The PLLJ is activated annually during the boreal summer (December-April) with intense intra-seasonal variability (with frequencies between 1 to 5 months) and inter annual perturbations associated with El Nino Southern Oscillation events. During warm ENSO events, the PLLJ activity last ~ 2 months more (from mid-November to the end of May) and its spatial extent increases southerly reaching ~ 2 ° N. Additionally, during warm ENSO years, there is an extemporaneous activation of PLLJ in the boreal summer, possibly linked to the intensification of the North Trade Winds over the Caribbean basin in the middle of the year and the increase in the north-south pressure gradient through the Panama isthmus during intense El Nino events. The entry of Caribbean winds in unusual seasons changes the climatology of the PLLJ and increasing its influence in the Eastern Tropical Pacific during the ENSO warm phases.

Spatial distribution and interannual variability of coastal fog and low clouds cover in the hyperarid Atacama Desert and implications for past and present Tillandsia landbeckii ecosystems

The hyperarid Atacama Desert coast receives scarce moisture inputs mainly from the Pacific Ocean in the form of marine advective fog. The collected moisture supports highly specialized ecosystems, where the bromeliad Tillandsia landbeckii is the dominant species. The fog and low clouds (FLCs) on which these ecosystems depend are affected in their interannual variability and spatial distribution by global phenomena, such as ENSO. Yet, there is a lack of understanding of how ENSO influences recent FLCs spatial changes and their interconnections and how these variations can affect existing Tillandsia stands. In this study, we analyze FLCs occurrence, its trends and the influence of ENSO on the interannual variations of FLCs presence by processing GOES satellite images (1995–2017). Our results show that ENSO exerts a significant influence over FLCs interannual variability in the Atacama at ~ 20°S. Linear regression analyses reveal a relation between ENSO3.4 anomalies and FLCs with opposite seasonal effects depending on the ENSO phase. During summer (winter), the ENSO warm phase is associated with an increase (decrease) of the FLCs occurrence, whereas the opposite occurs during ENSO cool phases. In addition, the ONI Index explains up to ~ 50 and ~ 60% variance of the interannual FLCs presence in the T. landbeckii site during summer and winter, respectively. Finally, weak negative (positive) trends of FLCs presence are observed above (below) 1000 m a. s. l. These results have direct implications for understanding the present and past distribution of Tillandsia ecosystems under the extreme conditions characterizing our study area.

Decadal behaviors of tropical storm tracks in the North West Pacific Ocean

Quantitative analysis on the shape of 959 tropical storm (TS) tracks in the North West Pacific (NWP) basin was carried out over the period from 1977 to 2016 by using International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) based on an established track sinuosity metric. Track sinuosity is a measure of deviation of a storm track from its straight–line path between the cyclogenesis and cyclolysis locations. More sinuosity in the storms' tracks makes it rather challenging for the atmospheric models to accurately assess the storms' respective locations on the map and potentially causes higher damages due to lack of precise information about their movement. Statistical analysis was carried out on spatial and temporal trends (monthly to decadal) of the TS track shape and the obtained results were mapped based on sinuosity categories within a GIS environment. The sinuosity distribution results are normalized using a cube–root transformation function to reduce skewness and obtain sinuosity index (SI). Distinct enhancement of TS sinuosity was noticed from the months July to October (JASO). It is also detected that early months of TS season like June–August have dominance of more predictable straighter storm tracks over sinuous kind of tracks, and vice-versa in the case of late months of season like September–October. It is also evident that there is a one- to three-year cyclic pattern of changing sinuosity over the NWP basin. The 1987–1996 decade had the maximum dominance of sinuous tracks in comparison to the other three decades. Significant longitudinal eastward shift (from 110°–140° E to 130°–160° E) in majority of cyclogenesis locations is observed as sinuosity in storm track increases from straight to sinuous patterns. Similar shift for latitudinal track was not found. Finally, we investigate the sinuosity based on the warm/cold phase of the ENSO. Warm phase of ENSO is found to be associated with a greater number of TS with higher SI values in the NWP basin. These TS during warm phase mostly originate in the eastern part of the basin where a vast open area of warm sea surface temperature encourages their formation and intensification. Lastly, the study found a moderate positive relationship between SI and TS' longevity and distance coverage, which are crucial information for disaster risk assessment, mitigation and preparedness.

Characterization of comprehensive drought events associated with the ENSO warm phase through satellite images in the Valle del Cauca Colombia

The Synthesized Drought Index in the Valle del Cauca was evaluated, applying Principal Component Analysis to satellite images that described: Land Surface Temperature, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Precipitation. The magnitude of drought represented by this index was identified in the first component and validated with the Quarterly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI – 3), obtained from 78 weather stations, which achieved correlations of between 0.55 and 0.71 during warm ENSO events. Comprehensive drought in the department was characterized by exhibiting areas of non-drought in the southwest, in the center-south a transition phase from wet to extremely dry, the Inter-Andean Valley showed sectors of severe drought, and to the east, extremely dry areas. Additionally, in a pilot municipality in the driest area of the department, a susceptibility model was implemented to detect areas affected by drought, applying the Analytical Hierarchical Process.

Landscape evolution of Punta Arena sand spit (SE Baja California Peninsula, NW Mexico): Implications of ENSO on landscape erosion rates

Coastal bars are deltaic landforms resulting from sediment mobilization from source to sink. The formation, evolution and extinction of coastal bars is of broad interest for Quaternary studies because these are natural archives of former and present climatic conditions where complex ecological and biological relations take place. The Pacific coast of Mexico contains many coastal bars, like the strand-plain of Nayarit (~1400 km2) which is one of the largest around the world. We present the first ages of the largest sand spit (~8.5 km2) of the SE part of Baja California Peninsula, named Punta Arena. OSL ages indicate that the innermost bar is 0.26 ± 0.02 ka (1755 ± 20 AD). Using OSL ages and data obtained from Landsat images we estimate a mean sedimentation rate of ca. 7.7 m yr –1. Results from satellite images spanning for 32 years (1984 to 2016) confirms that sand spit is accreting at ca. 0.6 m yr –1 along the bar formation zone and to ca. 0.7 m yr –1 along the longshore drift zone, such rates however, are significantly lower compared other formation periods between 1755 and 1984 CE when sedimentation rates were ~ 8 to ~ 52 m yr –1. The progradation of the sand spit is consistent with the apparent development and density of vegetation which dramatically drops from inland towards the coast. The analysis of rainfall data spanning from 1950 to 2015 indicates that the largest periods of sedimentation along the sand spit are related with extended non-rainfall months occurring during ENSO conditions. Our data indicate that climate in SE Baja California Peninsula has remained more or less stable since the LIA and the periods of landscape erosion, leading to the formation of bars and sand spit accretion, mainly occur under the warm phase of ENSO (La Niña) which produces extended periods of landscape dryness and intense rainfalls during the winter.

Interannual variations of water vapor in the tropical upper troposphere and the lower and middle stratosphere and their connections to ENSO and QBO

Abstract. In this study, we analyze the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder water vapor data in the tropical upper troposphere and the lower and middle stratosphere (UTLMS) (from 215 to 6 hPa) for the period from August 2004 to September 2017 using time-lag regression analysis and composite analysis to explore the interannual variations of tropical UTLMS water vapor and their connections to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Our analysis shows that the interannual tropical UTLMS water vapor anomalies are strongly related to ENSO and QBO which together can explain more than half (∼ 50 %–60 %) but not all variance of the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. We find that ENSO's impact is strong in the upper troposphere (∼ 215–∼ 120 hPa) and near the tropopause (∼ 110–∼ 90 hPa), with a ∼ 3-month lag but weak in the lower and middle stratosphere (∼ 80 to ∼ 6 hPa). In contrast, QBO's role is large in the lower and middle stratosphere, with an upward-propagating signal starting at the tropopause (100 hPa) with a ∼ 2-month lag, peaking in the middle stratosphere near 15 hPa with a ∼ 21-month lag. The phase lag is based on the 50 hPa QBO index used by many previous studies. This observational evidence supports that the QBO's impact on the tropical stratospheric water vapor is from its modulation on the tropical tropopause temperature and then transported upward with the tape recorder as suggested by many previous studies. In the upper troposphere, ENSO is more important than QBO for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies that are positive during the warm ENSO phases but negative during the cold ENSO phases. Near the tropopause, both ENSO and QBO are important for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. Warm ENSO phase and westerly QBO phase tend to cause positive water vapor anomalies, while cold ENSO phase and easterly QBO phase tend to cause negative water vapor anomalies. As a result, the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies near the tropopause are different depending on different ENSO and QBO phase combinations. In the lower and middle stratosphere, QBO is more important than ENSO for the interannual tropical water vapor anomalies. For the westerly QBO phases, interannual tropical water vapor anomalies are positive near the tropopause and in the lower stratosphere but negative in the middle stratosphere and positive again above. Vice versa for the easterly QBO phases.

A humidity index for the summer monsoon transition zone in East Asia

The East Asian summer monsoon transition zone (EASMTZ) is a narrow belt-shaped region in northern China, where the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) transits to the mid-latitude westerlies. Existing EASM intensity indices have difficulties in reflecting the summer monsoon activity in EASMTZ. Therefore, as a complement to EASM index, the humidity index (HI) is constructed based on specific humidity threshold that can describe the seasonal migration of EASM, considering both its northward extent and temporal duration in the EASMTZ. The proposed HI, which captures the leading mode of summer rainfall in China, can provide reliable measurement of the atmosphere humidity associated with summer monsoon in the EASMTZ. HI is closely related to the significant anomalies in western Pacific subtropical high and East Asian subtropical westerly jet, which control the summer monsoon moisture transported into the EASMTZ. These circulation anomalies are linked to ENSO. Correlation analyses show that a high (low) HI tends to occur during the cold (warm) phase of ENSO, accompanied by a warm-to-cold (cold-to-warm) phase transition. There are two possible mechanisms that are responsible for the linkage between HI and ENSO. One is the upper-level zonal wind anomaly wave trains which transfers ENSO-related zonal wind anomaly northwards into EASMTZ through thermal wind balance and Eddy-driven mean meridional circulation. The other involves the Indian summer monsoon and mid-latitude circumglobal teleconnection. ENSO may exert influences on the humidity in EASMTZ via Indian summer monsoon and circumglobal teleconnection when the interaction between Indian summer monsoon and ENSO is active.

Different Effects of Two ENSO Types on Arctic Surface Temperature in Boreal Winter

AbstractThe present work investigates different responses of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) to two ENSO types based on reanalysis datasets and model experiments. We find that eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO events are accompanied by statistically significant SAT responses over the Barents–Kara Seas in February, while central Pacific (CP) events coincide with statistically significant SAT responses over northeastern Canada and Greenland. These impacts are largely of opposite sign for ENSO warm and cold phases. During EP El Niño in February, the enhanced tropospheric polar vortex over Eurasia and associated local low-level northeasterly anomalies over the Barents–Kara Seas lead to anomalously cold SAT in this region. Simultaneously, the enhanced tropospheric polar vortex leads to enhanced sinking air motion and consequently reduced cloud cover. This in turn reduces downward infrared radiation (IR), which further reduces SAT in the Barents–Kara Seas region. Such a robust response cannot be detected during other winter months for EP ENSO events. During CP El Niño, the February SATs over northeastern Canada and Greenland are anomalously warm and coincide with a weakened tropospheric polar vortex and related local low-level southwesterly anomalies originating from the Atlantic Ocean. The anomalous warmth can be enhanced by the local positive feedback. Similar SAT signals as in February during CP ENSO events can also be seen in January, but they are less statistically robust. We demonstrate that these contrasting Arctic February SAT responses are consistent with responses to the two ENSO types with a series of atmospheric general circulation model experiments. These results have implications for the seasonal predictability of regional Arctic SAT anomalies.

Statistical downscaling of seasonal wave forecasts

Despite the potential applicability of seasonal forecasting for decision making in construction, maintenance and operations of coastal and offshore infrastructures, tailored climate services have yet to be developed in the marine sector. In this work, we explore the potential of a state-of-the-art seasonal forecast system to predict wave conditions, particularly significant wave height. Since this information is not directly provided by models, a statistical downscaling method is applied to infer significant wave height based on model outputs such as sea level pressure, which drive waves over large wave generation areas beyond the target location over time. This method may be beneficial for seasonal forecasting since skill from wide generation areas can be propagated to wave conditions in (distant and smaller) target regions. We consider seasonal predictions with a one-month lead time of the CFSv2 hindcast in two regions: the Western Pacific around Indonesia during the June–July–August (JJA) season and the North Atlantic Ocean during the January–February–March (JFM) season. In the former case, skillful predictions are found, which are higher during decay years after ENSO warm phases when a negative anomaly of the significant wave height is expected. In contrast, statistical downscaling in the North Atlantic Ocean cannot add value to the signal given by the predictor, which is also very weak.

Effect of ENSO on the distribution and concentration of catches and reproductive activity of anchovy Engraulis ringens in northern Chile

AbstractAnchovy makes up 90% of pelagic fishery catches in northern Chile. For the present work, anchovy (Engraulis ringens, Jenyns 1842) catches between 1997 and 2016 were analyzed to determine changes in distribution, concentration, and reproductive behavior before, during, and after ENSO events, using spatial indexes: gravity center (GC), inertia, coverage (CI), Gini index, and gonadosomatic index (GI). At the start of ENSO, anchovy catches increased and concentrated along the coast (rising Gini index), while CI decreased. During ENSO, Gini decreased, registering a southward displacement of the GC and smaller catches. In the long run, anchovy occupied lesser area (<CI) starting from 2008, concentrating in coastal areas. It developed a size structure composed mainly of specimens smaller than 17.0 cm. In addition, specimens < 12.0 cm were positively correlated with thermal anomalies, CI and MEI, reaching more than 60% of the catches during the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 ENSO cycles. Results suggest that the warm phase of ENSO alters the anchovies’ reproductive activity, delaying its onset up to 4 weeks, and reducing GI intensity to 50%, due to increased participation in the reproductive process of individuals 12.0–13.5 cm. Therefore, large‐scale environmental processes, such as ENSO, significantly affect size structure and contribute to reduction of occupied area and higher reproductive activity of small‐size anchovies.

Variability of the Cold Season Climate in Central Asia. Part I: Weather Types and Their Tropical and Extratropical Drivers

AbstractTo understand the atmospheric mechanisms resulting in a pronounced cold season climate variability in central Asia, an objective weather-type classification is conducted, utilizing a k-means-based clustering approach applied to 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) fields. Eight weather types (WT) are identified and analyzed with regard to characteristic pressure patterns and moisture fluxes over Eurasia and specific near-surface climate conditions over central Asia. To identify remote drivers of the central Asian climate, WT frequencies are analyzed for their relationships with tropical and extratropical teleconnection modes. The results indicate an influence of Northern Hemispheric planetary wave tracks on westerly moisture fluxes with positive anomalies of precipitation associated with the formation of a Rossby trough over central Asia. Particularly the propagation of the east Atlantic–western Russia and the Scandinavian patterns is shown to modulate regional climate conditions. Variations of ENSO are shown to affect the frequency of particular WTs because of the formation of an anticyclonic anomaly over the Indian Ocean and an increase of tropical fluxes of moisture and heat into central Asia during El Niño events. Further a WT internal influence of ENSO is distinctly defined, with enhanced moisture supply during the ENSO warm phase. The analysis of climatic trends shows that 50% of observed temperature changes can be assigned to variations of the WT composition, indicating that most likely changing regional circulation characteristics account for the enhanced warming rates in central Asia. Trends of precipitation sums are likewise shown to be associated with changing WT frequencies, although the WT–precipitation relationships include large uncertainties.

Climatology and Teleconnections of Mesoscale Convective Systems in an Andean Basin in Southern Ecuador: The Case of the Paute Basin

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) climatology, the thermodynamic and dynamical variables, and teleconnections influencing MCSs development are assessed for the Paute basin (PB) in the Ecuadorian Andes from 2000 to 2009. The seasonality of MCSs occurrence shows a bimodal pattern, with higher occurrence during March-April (MA) and October-November (ON), analogous to the regional rainfall seasonality. The diurnal cycle of MCSs shows a clear nocturnal occurrence, especially during the MA and ON periods. Interestingly, despite the higher occurrence of MCSs during the rainy seasons, the monthly size relative frequency remains fairly constant throughout the year. On the east of the PB, the persistent high convective available potential and low convective inhibition values from midday to nighttime are likely related to the nocturnal development of the MCSs. A significant positive correlation between the MCSs occurrence to the west of the PB and the Trans-Niño index was found, suggesting that ENSO is an important source of interannual variability of MCSs frequency with increasing development of MCSs during warm ENSO phases. On the east of the PB, the variability of MCSs is positively correlated to the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies south of the equator, due to the variability of the Atlantic subtropical anticyclone, showing main departures from this relation when anomalous conditions occur in the tropical Pacific due to ENSO.

Were merely storm-landslides driven by the 2015-2016 Niño in the Mendoza River valley?

Since Holocene time, above-mean precipitations recorded during the El Nino warm ENSO phase have been linked to the occurrence of severe debris flows in the arid Central Andes. The 2015–2016 El Nino, for its unusual strength, began driving huge and dangerous landslides in the Central Andes (32°) in the recent South Hemisphere summer. The resulting damages negatively impacted the regional economy. Despite this, causes of these dangerous events were ambiguously reported. For this reason, a multidisciplinary study was carried out in the Mendoza River valley. Firstly, a geomorphological analysis of affected basins was conducted, estimating morphometric parameters of recorded events such as velocity, stream flow, and volume. Atmospheric conditions during such events were analyzed, considering precipitations, snow cover, temperature range, and the elevation of the zero isotherm. Based on our findings, the role of El Nino on the slope instability in the Central Andes is more complex in the climate change scenario. Even though some events were effectively triggered by intense summer rainstorm following expectations, the most dangerous events were caused by the progressive uplifting of the zero isotherm in smaller basins where headwaters are occupied by debris rock glaciers. Our research findings give light to the dynamic coupled system ENSO–climate change–landslides (ECCL) at least in this particular case study of the Mendoza River valley. Landslide activity in this Andean region is driven by wetter conditions linked to the ENSO warm phase, but also to progressive warming since the twentieth century in the region. This fact emphasizes the future impact of the natural hazards on Andean mountain communities.