Warm Nights Research Articles

Temperature effect on yield of winter and spring irrigated crops

Extreme weather conditions, such as low and high air temperature changes during the growing season, play a significant role in irrigated crop yield. In this study an iterative chi-square statistical method was used to determine the relationship between air temperature and yield of dominant winter and spring irrigated crops in Shahrekord, Iran. Long term daily weather (1991–2016) and annual crop yield (wheat, barley, potato, alfalfa) data were analyzed and the relationships between low and high crop yield years with maximum and minimum air temperatures was evaluated. Our results indicated that higher temperature during tillering, dormancy breaking and stem elongation (fewer number of days with Tmax ≤ 5 °C and greater number of days with Tmax > 20 °C) and colder temperature in short time before dormancy breaking led to wheat yield loss. Cold weather during germination, seedling growth and tillering (greater number of days with Tmax ≤ 0 °C and excess nights with Tmin ≤ −20 °C) as well as cold temperature during breaking dormancy and kernel dough development (fewer days with Tmax > 25 °C) caused to reduce the barely grain yield. Warmer nights during potato flowering, development of fruit and mid-stage of tuber formation (excess days with Tmin > 10 °C) and cooler days during potato senescence (greater number of days with Tmax ≤ 20 °C) reduced potato tuber yield. Cool weather during emergence of first flower buds and first flowering stages (greater number of days with Tmax ≤ 20 °C) led to forage yield loss of alfalfa. Determination of critical periods when these crops are most sensitive to air temperature extremes provides important information for modifying management practices, such as adjusting planting date in order to reduction the negative effects of temperature extremes on crop yield. This information will also be useful for predicting crop yields in different years.

Spatiotemporal patterns of surface temperature over western Odisha and eastern Chhattisgarh

Extreme temperature indices are a matter of serious concern to human as well as ecological activities. They are directly or indirectly affect the health, agriculture and socioeconomic progress. Regional-scale heat wave analysis is highly important for obtaining firsthand information about the impact of extreme temperature. This study examines the trends and variability in frequency, and intensity of warm/cold days/nights to assess the impact of climate change over ten districts of western Odisha and five districts of neighboring Chhattisgarh. Though this region is industrialized, its population is highly vulnerable socioeconomic conditions within India. This study examines daily maximum and minimum temperature during the summer months (i.e., March, April and May) for 30 years (i.e., 1988–2017) over this region, using the ERA-Interim data sets at horizontal resolution of 12 km. Results suggest that the daily maximum, minimum and mean temperature over the study region increase at the rate of 0.006 °C, 0.012 °C and 0.017 °C per year, respectively. Alarmingly, frequency and intensity of warm night have increased, whereas frequency and intensity of cold nights have decreased over the years. Raigarh in Chhattisgarh has the highest increasing trend of warm night frequency (0.13 times/year) followed by Jharsuguda, Sundargarh and Sambalpur in Odisha. In addition, Sundargarh has the highest increasing trend of warm day (night) intensity ~ 0.065 days/year (~ 0.07 days/year) followed by Jharsuguda, Sambalpur, Raigarh and Janjgir Champa. The frequency of cold days in all districts shows negative trends with highest (− 0.06 times/year) in Sambalpur. Three-day trend values, highest over Sundargarh, for the warm (cold) nights are ~ 0.05 days/year (~ − 0.05 days/year). Evidently, numbers of warm nights have increased, and those of cold nights have decreased over this region.

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Diurnal Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in North Central Nigeria

Global warming and changes in precipitation patterns are among the major effects of climate change. In this study, the long-term variability in ambient surface temperature and precipitation were evaluated in the north central region of Nigeria (Abuja, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, and Plateau) using meteorological observations obtained from 1975 to 2008. Daily precipitation data from synoptic weather stations were carefully quality-controlled using the RClimdex 1.1 developed by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). The quality-controlled dataset were homogenized using RHtestsV4 and the detected change points were adjusted. Results showed a decrease in cool nights and cool days (TN10P, TX10P), and increasing trend in warm nights and days (TN90P, TX90P). The trend in rainfall is variable compared to changes in temperature. The precipitation indices indicated increasing trend in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), and a significant decrease in the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) in this region. In general, regional changes in climate temperature and precipitation extremes were significant (p < 0.05) and could result in serious climate induced effects.

Characterizing the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and Variability in Climate Extremes Over the Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2012

Extreme climate events play an important role in studies of long-term climate change. As the Earth's Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is sensitive to climate change and variation. In this study on the TP, the spatiotemporal changes in climate extreme indices (CEIs) are analyzed based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures and precipitation at 98 meteorological stations, most with elevations of at least 4000 m above sea level, during 1960–2012. Fifteen temperature extreme indices (TEIs) and eight precipitation extreme indices (PEIs) were calculated. Then, their long-term change patterns, from spatial and temporal perspectives, were determined at regional, eco-regional and station levels. The entire TP region exhibits a significant warming trend, as reflected by the TEIs. The regional cold days and nights show decreasing trends at rates of −8.9 d (10 yr)-1 (days per decade) and −17.3 d (10 yr)-1, respectively. The corresponding warm days and nights have increased by 7.6 d (10 yr)-1 and 12.5 d (10 yr)-1, respectively. At the station level, the majority of stations indicate statistically significant trends for all TEIs, but they show spatial heterogeneity. The eco-regional TEIs show patterns that are consistent with the entire TP. The growing season has become longer at a rate of 5.3 d (10 yr)-1. The abrupt change points for CEIs were examined, and they were mainly distributed during the 1980s and 1990s. The PEIs on the TP exhibit clear fluctuations and increasing trends with small magnitudes. The annual total precipitation has increased by 2.8 mm (10 yr)-1 (not statistically significant). Most of the CEIs will maintain a persistent trend, as indicated by their Hurst exponents. The developing trends of the CEIs do not show a corresponding change with increasing altitude. In general, the warming trends demonstrate an asymmetric pattern reflected by the rapid increase in the warming trends of the cold TEIs, which are of greater magnitudes than those of the warm TEIs. This finding indicates a positive shift in the distribution of the daily minimum temperatures throughout the TP. Most of the PEIs show weak increasing trends, which are not statistically significant. This work aims to delineate a comprehensive picture of the extreme climate conditions over the TP that can enhance our understanding of its changing climate.

Spatiotemporal trends of temperature and precipitation extremes across contrasting climatic zones of China during 1956–2015

Spatiotemporal changes of temperature and precipitation extremes from 1956 to 2015 were analyzed at 200 representative weather stations evenly distributed in the temperate continental zone (TCZ), temperate monsoon zone (TMZ), mountain plateau zone (MPZ), and (sub) tropical monsoon zone (SMZ) of China, using 16 extreme temperature and 11 extreme precipitation indexes. The results showed that warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) increased significantly, while cool days (TX10p) and cool nights (TN10p) decreased significantly in the whole China. Overall increasing trends were found for maximum and minimum daily maximum temperature (TXx and TXn) and maximum and minimum daily minimum temperature (TNx and TNn). Warm indexes, including summer days (SU25), tropical nights (TR20), warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), and growing season length (GSL), showed increasing trends, whereas cold indexes such as frost days (FD0), ice days (ID0), cold spell duration indicator (CSDI), and diurnal temperature range (DTR) showed decreasing trends. These extreme temperature indexes exhibited high correlations with mean air temperature. MPZ exhibited the most remarkable change magnitudes among the four zones, while the smallest changes occurred in SMZ. An accelerating warming trend was particularly observed since 1986. Nationally, only daily rainfall intensity (SDII) showed significantly increasing trends, while the increasing trends of other precipitation indexes were not significant. Apart from consecutive wet days (CWD), changes of precipitation extremes presented increasing trends. PRCPTOT and R10mm exhibited the highest correlation coefficient across contrasting climatic zones. Regionally averaged precipitation totals were decreasing in TMZ during 1956–1985, but increasing trends were identified after 1985. The upward tendency of precipitation totals in MPZ and the west part of TCZ may alleviate the pressure of water shortage in arid and semi-arid regions of China, but the upward trend in SMZ, especially in the coastal areas of southeastern China, may aggravate the risk of flood-induced disasters in these regions.

Estimating the effect of urbanization on extreme climate events in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

Quantifying the impact of urbanization on extreme climate events is significant for ecosystem responses, flood control, and urban planners. This study aimed to examine the urbanization effects on a suite of 36 extreme temperature and precipitation indices for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region by classifying the climate observations into three different urbanization levels. A total of 176 meteorological stations were used to identify large cities, small and medium-size cities and rural environments by applying K-means cluster analysis combined with spatial land use, nighttime light remote sensing, socio-economic data and Google Earth. The change trends of the extreme events during 1980–2015 were detected by using Mann-Kendall (MK) statistical test and Sen's slope estimator. Urbanization effects on those extreme events were calculated as well. Results indicated that the cool indices generally showed decreasing trends over the time period 1980–2015, while the warm indices tended to increase. Larger and more significant changes occurred with indices related to the daily minimum temperature. The different change rates of temperature extremes in urban, suburban and rural environments were mainly about the cool and warm night indices. Urbanization in medium-size cities tended to have a negative effect on cool indices, while the urbanization in large cities had a positive effect on warm indices. The significant difference of urbanization effect between large and medium-size cities lay in the daily maximum temperature. Results also demonstrated the scale effect of the urbanization on the extreme temperature events. However, the results showed little evidence of the urban effect on extreme precipitation events in the BTH region. This paper explored the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes and qualified the urbanization effects on those extreme events in the BTH region. The findings of this research can provide new insights into the future urban agglomeration development projects.

Spatio‐temporal analysis for extreme temperature indices over the Levant region

AbstractThe temporal and spatial trends of 16 climate extreme indices based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures during the period 1987–2016 at 28 stations distributed across Israel and Palestine territories in the Levant region were annually and seasonally analysed. The nonparametric Man‐Kendall test and the Sen's slope estimator were employed for the trend analysis. Results showed that the region has significantly experienced a dominant warming trend for the last three decades, with more intense changes for minimum temperatures than for maximum. At annual scale, maximum values of minimum temperatures exhibited significant increasing trends up to 0.68°C/decade. For percentile‐based extreme temperature indices, changes detected were more pronounced than those for the absolute extreme temperature indices, with 93 and 89% of stations significantly showed increasing trends in TX90p and TN90p, respectively. The duration and fixed threshold extreme indices confirmed the trend toward a warming, with the 86% of the stations exhibited significant increasing trends in the annual occurrence of summer days (SU25) and tropical nights (TR20). Moreover, 57% of stations showed significant increasing trends in their very summer days (SU30) index. At seasonal scale, the analysis of trends for extreme temperature indices showed intense and broad significant increasing trends in all absolute extreme temperature indices. In summer, more than 75% of total stations exhibited significant increasing trends for warm days and warm nights (TX90p and TN90p). In winter and spring, 71% of the total stations also showed significant increasing trends in SU25 index, whereas the percentage of stations reached 82% in summer and 64% in autumn for significant increasing trends in TR20 index. Finally, the influence of large‐scale circulation patterns on temperature extremes was examined. The results highlighted the presence of significant correlations between most of the selected extreme temperature indices and the North Sea‐Caspian pattern at annual and seasonal scales.

Impacts of climate changes on the maximum and minimum temperature in Iran

In this paper, trends of minimum and maximum temperatures in Iran were studied using time series of daily minimum and maximum temperatures of 45 meteorological stations from 1976 to 2005 (as the baseline period). Mann-Kendall test, for maximum and minimum temperature, was obtained 1.85 and 3.56, respectively, which was positive and significant. The slope of the trend line for maximum and minimum temperature was obtained 0.23 and 0.39 °C decade−1, respectively. In this study, the trend of extreme temperature indicators was also evaluated. According to the obtained results, in annual terms, TX10, FDO, TN10, and IDO indices have had a negative trend at most stations, but TX90, TR20, TNx, TNx, TXn, TN90, SDI, and SU25 indices showed a positive trend. In the seasonal scale, the indices of cold days (TX10) and cold nights (TN10) showed significant negative trends in most seasons. Warm days (TX90) and warm nights (TN90) showed significant positive trends at most stations. The results of future simulations using several general circulation models in different time periods showed that the highest increase in maximum and minimum temperature related to the RCP8.5 scenario in periods of 2071 to 2099. The results also showed that northwest of Iran would have the highest temperature rise. The results also showed that the probability density function of the minimum and maximum temperatures will shift to warmer temperatures. This could be an indication of climate change in the future decades in Iran.

Historical and projected trends in near-surface temperature indices for 22 locations in South Africa

Motivated by the risks posed by global warming, historical trends and future projections of near-surface temperature in South Africa have been investigated in a number of previous studies. These studies included the assessment of trends in average temperatures as well as extremes. In this study, historical trends in near-surface minimum and maximum temperatures as well as extreme temperature indices in South Africa were critically investigated by comparing quality-controlled station observations with downscaled model projections. Because climate models are the only means of generating future global warming projections, this critical point comparison between observed and downscaled model simulated time series can provide valuable information regarding the interpretation of model-generated projections. Over the historical 1951–2005 period, both observed data and downscaled model projections were compared at 22 point locations in South Africa. An analysis of model projection trends was conducted over the period 2006–2095. The results from the historical analysis show that model outputs tend to simulate the historical trends well for annual means of daily maximum and minimum temperatures. However, noteworthy discrepancies exist in the assessment of temperature extremes. While both the historical model simulations and observations show a general warming trend in the extreme indices, the observational data show appreciably more spatial and temporal variability. On the other hand, model projections for the period 2006–2095 show that for the medium-to-low concentration Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, the projected decrease in cold nights is not as strong as is the case for the historically observed trends. However, the upward trends in warm nights for both the RCP4.5 and the high concentration RCP8.5 pathways are noticeably stronger than the historically observed trends. For cool days, future projections are comparable to the historically observed trends, but for hot days noticeably higher. Decreases in cold spells and increases in warm spells are expected to continue in future, with relatively strong positive trends on a regional basis. It is shown that projected trends are not expected to be constant into the future, in particular trends generated from the RCP8.5 pathway that show a strong increase in warming towards the end of the projection period.&#x0D; Significance:&#x0D; &#x0D; Comparison between the observed and simulated trends emphasises the necessity to assess the reliability of the output of climate models which have a bearing on the credibility of projections.&#x0D; The limitation of the models to adequately simulate the climate extremes, renders the projections conservative.&#x0D;

A study of frost occurrence and minimum temperatures in Iran

In this research, the frequency of frost is analysed from 95 synoptic stations for the period 1990–2015. This information was categorised by a fuzzy c-approach clustering algorithm and indicated that Iran is classified into five clusters with the aid of the frost-occurrence frequencies. The greatest frequency of days with frost prevalence is located in Cluster 1 that consists of Sarab station with an average annual frequency of 141.1 days over the period 1990–2015. The least frequent is found in Cluster 5 that consists of the stations positioned along the south and north coasts. Spatial association for the frequency of incidence of frost days also includes a dependence on elevation and latitude of stations, as well as their situation inside the course of external synoptic systems, bodily and geomorphological features and local climate. Also, a study of daily minimum temperature displays a widespread warming trend at some stage during this period, and has discovered an increase in the index of the number of tropical nights, warmest nights and coldest nights and decreasing trends have been determined in the number of frost days, cool nights and cold spell period index over most regions of Iran.

Environmental factors influencing road use in a nocturnal insectivorous bird

Many animals avoid roads due to traffic disturbance, but there are also some species that use roads in their everyday life and even obtain resources from them. Understanding the factors that influence the intensity of road use by these species can help understand temporal patterns of road mortality and thereby maximise the cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures. Here, we use road transect counts conducted once a week for 9 consecutive years (2009–2017) to investigate environmental factors influencing road use in the red-necked nightjar (Caprimulgus ruficollis), a nocturnal insectivorous bird that frequents roads to forage and thermoregulate. We found that the intensity of road use by nightjars was affected by ambient temperature, amount of moonlight and wind conditions—all factors known to influence their foraging efficiency and thermoregulatory requirements. Specifically, the highest numbers of nightjars on roads occurred during no-wind conditions and on either dark-cold or bright-warm nights, suggesting that they preferentially use roads for thermoregulation under unfavourable weather conditions or to maximise food intake during periods of increased insect abundance (i.e. warm nights) and improved conditions for visual prey detection (i.e. full moon). Our results illustrate the role of environmental conditions as drivers of rapid changes in the use of roads by animals. Furthermore, this work suggests that analogous studies can be used to inform mitigation measures, so that mitigation efforts to prevent roadkills can be concentrated during periods of expected peaks in animal use of roads.

Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature Extremes over the Muda River Basin, Malaysia

Trends in precipitation and temperature extremes of the Muda River Basin (MRB) in north-western Peninsular Malaysia were analyzed from 1985 to 2015. Daily climate data from eight stations that passed high quality data control and four homogeneity tests (standard normal homogeneity test, Pettitt test, Buishand range test, and von Neumann ratio test) were used to calculate 22 Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) extreme indices. Non-parametric Mann–Kendall, modified Mann–Kendall and Sens’ slope tests were applied to detect the trend and magnitude changes of the climate extremes. Overall, the results indicate that monthly precipitation tended to increase significantly in January (17.01 mm/decade) and December (23.23 mm/decade), but decrease significantly in May (26.21 mm/decade), at a 95% significance level. Monthly precipitation tended to increase in the northeast monsoon, but decrease in the southwest monsoon. Mann–Kendall test detected insignificant trends in most of the annual climate extremes, except the extremely wet days (R99p), mean of maximum temperature (TXmean), mean of minimum temperature (TNmean), cool days (TX10p), cool nights (TN10p), warm days (TX90p) and warm nights (TN90p) indices. The number of heavy (R10mm), very heavy (R20mm), and violent (R50mm) precipitation days changed at magnitudes of 0~2.73, −2.14~3.33, and −1.67~1.29 days/decade, respectively. Meanwhile, the maximum 1-day (Rx1d) and 5-day (Rx5d) precipitation amount indices changed from −10.18 to 3.88 mm/decade and −21.09 to 24.69 mm/decade, respectively. At the Ampangan Muda station, TNmean (0.32 °C/decade) increased at a higher rate compared to TXmean (0.22 °C/decade). The number of the cold days and nights tended to decrease, while an opposite trend was found in the warmer days and nights.

Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: Past and future occurrences

This study investigates trends of climate extreme indices in the Komadugu-Yobe Basin (KYB) based on observed data of the period 1971–2017 as well as regional climate model (RCM) simulations for the historical period (1979–2005), the near future (2020–2050), and the far future (2060–2090). In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. Future trends are assessed using the ensemble mean of eight regional climate model data under two emission scenarios, provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. Although there is a positive trend in the annual total rainfall, the number of consecutive wet (dry) days decreases (increases). The future climate also shows a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices as well as more frequent extreme rainfall events. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin.

Investigating West African Monsoon Features in Warm Years Using the Regional Climate Model RegCM4

This study investigates the changes in West African monsoon features during warm years using the Regional Climate Model version 4.5 (RegCM4.5). The analysis uses 30 years of datasets of rainfall, surface temperature and wind parameters (from 1980 to 2009). We performed a simulation at a spatial resolution of 50 km with the RegCM4.5 model driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis. The rainfall amount is weaker over the Sahel (western and central) and the Guinea region for the warmest years compared to the coldest ones. The analysis of heat fluxes show that the sensible (latent) heat flux is stronger (weaker) during the warmest (coldest) years. When considering the rainfall events, there is a decrease of the number of rainy days over the Guinea Coast (in the South of Cote d’Ivoire, of Ghana and of Benin) and the western and eastern Sahel during warm years. The maximum length of consecutive wet days decreases over the western and eastern Sahel, while the consecutive dry days increase mainly over the Sahel band during the warm years. The percentage of very warm days and warm nights increase mainly over the Sahel domain and the Guinea region. The model also simulates an increase of the warm spell duration index in the whole Sahel domain and over the Guinea Coast in warm years. The analysis of the wind dynamic exhibits during warm years a weakening of the monsoon flow in the lower levels, a strengthening in the magnitude of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) in the mid-troposphere and a slight increase of the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) in the upper levels of the atmosphere during warm years.

Observed trends in climate extremes over Bangladesh from 1981 to 2010

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 77:45-61 (2019) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01539 Observed trends in climate extremes over Bangladesh from 1981 to 2010 Md. Jamal Uddin Khan, A. K. M. Saiful Islam*, Mohan Kumar Das, Khaled Mohammed, Sujit Kumar Bala, G. M. Tarekul Islam Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh *Corresponding author: saiful3@gmail.com ABSTRACT: Bangladesh regularly faces various extreme events (floods, droughts, cyclones, and heat waves), but there is a knowledge gap between average climate and climate extremes over the country. The purpose of this study is to quantify the trends over Bangladesh for the period 1981-2010 using the extreme temperature and precipitation indices developed by the CCl/WCRP/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. We used precipitation and temperature data from 26 meteorological stations, calculated trends in the indices using Sen’s slope estimator, and tested significance using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test. For the temperature indices, we found an overall increasing warming trend. Average annual maximum and minimum temperatures increased by 0.3 and 0.4°C decade-1 respectively. A faster rise of both maximum and minimum temperature was found compared with previous studies. The frequency of warm days increased by 12 days decade-1. The frequency of warm (cold) nights increased (decreased) by 7 (11) days decade-1. The overall warming was accelerated at the end of the climatic period (2001-2010). Precipitation indices showed an overall decreasing trend, in contrast to other studies in this region. Trends in consecutive dry days (CDD) indicated a drying tendency at a rate of 10 days decade-1. A decreasing rate of about 84 mm decade-1 was observed in annual average total precipitation. Except for CDD, most of the precipitation trends were statistically not significant and spatially incoherent. Statistically significant change was observed in extreme temperature events, with a strong and consistent spatial pattern. Our results pave the way for further investigations into future changes using results from climate simulations. KEY WORDS: Extreme indices · Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices · ETCCDI · Bangladesh · Observed records · Climate change Full text in pdf format Supplementary material PreviousNextCite this article as: Khan MJU, Islam AKMS, Das MK, Mohammed K, Bala SK, Islam GMT (2019) Observed trends in climate extremes over Bangladesh from 1981 to 2010. Clim Res 77:45-61. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01539 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 77, No. 1. Online publication date: January 08, 2019 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2019 Inter-Research.

Spatial modelling of summer climate indices based on local climate zones: expected changes in the future climate of Brno, Czech Republic

With global climate change ongoing, there is growing concern about future living conditions in urban areas. This contribution presents the modelled spatial distribution of two daytime (summer days, hot days), and two night-time (warm nights and tropical nights) summer climate indices in the recent and future climate of the urban environment of Brno, Czech Republic, within the framework of local climate zones (LCZs). The thermodynamic MUKLIMO_3 model combined with the CUBOID method is used for spatial modelling. Climate indices are calculated from measurements over three periods (1961–1990, 1971–2000 and 1981–2010). The EURO-CORDEX database for two periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) and three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) are employed to indicate future climate. The results show that the values of summer climate indices will significantly increase in the twenty-first century. In all LCZs, the increase per RCP 8.5 scenario is substantially more pronounced than scenarios per RCP 2.6 and 4.5. Our results indicate that a higher absolute increment in the number of hot days, warm nights and tropical nights is to be expected in already warmer, densely populated midrise and/or compact developments (LCZs 2, 3 and 5) in contrast to a substantially lower increment for forested areas (LCZ A). Considering the projected growth of summer climate indices and the profound differences that exist between LCZs, this study draws urgent attention to the importance of urban planning that works towards moderating the increasing heat stress in central European cities.

Spatiotemporal variability of climate extremes in the Marmara Region (NW Turkey)

In this study, the long-term variability of climate extremes was investigated for the region Marmara (NW of Turkey). Based on the 21 meteorological stations, Mann-Kendall rank statistic test and fitted ordinary least squares regression method was implemented to the six indices of extreme temperature and eight of extreme precipitation for the period 1960-2006. In regional perspective for temperature indices, statistically significant increasing trends (p < 0.05) are shown in the warm days and nights. In regard to warm days, 38% of all stations show significant increasing trends and the stations located in the north part of the region commonly exhibited significant positive trends. For warm nights, 52% of all stations have significant positive trends, which are homogeneously distributed to all of Marmara. Other temperature extremes such as cold, frost and summer days have non-significant increasing trends. Only cold nights show non-significant decreasing trends in the study. For all precipitation indices, it is found non-significant increasing trends in the region. The possible impacts of the extremes on particular sub-basins were also evaluated in the study. The results can give valuable opportunity for policymakers and stakeholders in focusing on the water resources and eco-environment management strategies in the Marmara Region.

The Use of Indigenous Knowledge in Predicting Changes in Seasonal Rainfall by Smallholder Farmers of Ruteete Subcounty, Kabarole District

Climate change has become a serious global challenge. Developing countries are the worst affected due to poor response mechanism to associated disasters. This study examined the application of the indigenous knowledge (IK) methods to predict the changes in seasonal rainfall. The study used data collected through individual interviews using a structured questionnaire. The study found vegetation changes (i.e. shading off leaves, excessive branching); changes in animal behavior (i.e. eating soil, restlessness), and other atmospheric indicators (i.e. changes in wind, color of stars and moon, earthquake, migrating of birds, swarming of bees, cold windy mornings and warm nights) being used to observe and monitor the changes in rainfall over the season. The study recommends a more detailed study to validate the IK and integrate it with the scientific knowledge so as to reduce local farmers’ vulnerability, increase resilience and strengthen their adaptive capacity to cope with climate change effects.

Climate change potential effects on grapevine bioclimatic indices: A case study for the Portuguese demarcated Douro Region (Portugal)

In this work, bioclimatic parameters and indices relevant to the grapevine are estimated for the years 2000 (recent-pat), 2049 (medium-term future) and 2097 (long-term future), based on very high resolution (1 km × 1 km) MPI-WRF RCP8.5 climate simulations. The selected parameters and indices are the mean temperature during the grapevine growing season period (April to October, Tgs), the cumulative rainfall during the grapevine growing season period (Pgs), the Winkler index (WI), the Huglin heliothermic index (HI), the night cold index (CI) and the dryness index (DI). In general, a significant increase in mean temperature during the grapevine growing season period is observed, together with a significant decrease in precipitation. The recent-past WI is associated with the production of high-quality wines; the higher values predicted for the future represent intensive production of wines of intermediate quality. The HI shows the passage of a grapevine growing region considered as temperate-warm to a warm category of higher helio-thermicity. The recent-past CI indicates very cool conditions (associated with quality wines), while in the future there is a tendency for temperate or warmer nights. Finally, DI indicates an increase in water stress considered already high under the recent-past climate conditions. These results point to an increased climatic stress on the Douro region wine production and increased vulnerability of its vine varieties, providing evidence to support strategies aimed to preserve the high-quality wines in the region and their typicality in a sustainable way.

Personal Continuum

240 Feminist Studies 45, no. 1. © 2019 by Mary Anna Evans Mary Anna Evans Personal Continuum The scent of gasoline is neither attractive nor repulsive. It falls somewhere on the continuum between. It is medicinal, but without the acrid bitterness of medicine. It draws children like a drug, but only when their parents aren’t hovering to warn of danger. Adults know about fire and poisoning and long-range carcinogenic doom. Children only know that the odor around gas pumps smells naughty and fun, until their lips open and the flavor of petroleum turns their stomachs. Why do some things smell so much better than they taste? Gasoline, unlike honey, draws humans but not flies. Sarah was not thinking of fire, poisoning, or doom when she fitted the long metal nozzle into the mouth of her car’s fuel tank. She was trying not to think at all, though the customary thoughts slipped in. None of them were about gasoline. The pump’s air pollution control system was working well but not perfectly, so it took a moment for the odor to reach her nose. Her body roused and snarled at her. The baby. What are you thinking? If you breathe those fumes, what will they do to the baby? A moment passed while her body checked itself, remembering what it already knew. There was no baby. Where is the baby? Mary Anna Evans 241 The frantic voice didn’t echo between her ears. It had nothing to do with her brain at all. It was more than thought. It came from a place deeper than thought, and it wasn’t hers. Her body said things she didn’t want to say, and it needed things she didn’t need. Her body wanted things that were not good for her. Again, Where is the baby? And then, the darker question. What did you do? “Nothing,” she said aloud, since there was no one to hear. I didn’t do anything but bleed. I’m still bleeding. She resisted the instinct to clap her hands over her ears to shut out the voice that couldn’t be shut out. Her defiant hold on the nozzle kept her upright. She listened to the rhythmic throb of the pump. Refusing to turn her face from the gasoline’s stench, she opened her mouth and let the fumes seep in. * * * “Hello, sweetheart,” Frederick said as he came in the door. His peck on the cheek didn’t linger, so Sarah knew there would be no more expressions of affection that day. He had read in a self-help book that it was important for couples to use terms of endearment as a form of bonding. Physical displays of affection were important, too, or so said the self-affirmed relationship expert who wrote the book. In public, displays of affection affirmed the pair bond. In private, even a quick smooch forced men and women to secrete an attachment chemical called oxy-whatever. Oh, hell. She was a chemist. She knew what oxytocin was. She was just mystified by the notion of reading a book to find out how to get some. He turned away and went into the kitchen to fetch the marinating chicken. He always grilled when it was his night to cook. She had come to wonder whether modern men were drawn to cook with fire by an ageold hunter instinct, or whether they were attracted to an activity that put a well-insulated exterior wall between them and the women who remained inside to toss the salads. All across America, every warm summer night, lonely women toss salads and hope for romance. His head poked in the back door. “I bought slivered almonds and croutons.” 242 Mary Anna Evans Her “Thanks for remembering, sweetheart,” bounced off the closing door. Shit. She could have spared herself that soulless term of endearment. Leaving the lettuce in the refrigerator, she thrust her soapy hands under warm running water, because even thinking the word “shit” made the idea of handling raw food appalling. Her body, which had forgotten again that she’d lost the baby, approved of her caution. She guarded her thoughts against disturbing its...