Extreme Warming Research Articles

Extreme warm events in the South Orkney Islands, Southern Ocean: Compounding influence of atmospheric rivers and föhn conditions

AbstractExtreme warm events in the South Orkney Islands (SOIs) are investigated using synoptic observations from Signy and Orcadas stations for 1947–1994 and 1956–2019 respectively. Defining the extremes as temperatures exceeding the 95th percentile of the temperature distribution, we reveal the characteristics and associated drivers of the warm events, especially the top 10 events in both summer and winter. At both stations, extreme warm events often involve a combined effect of atmospheric rivers (ARs) and localised föhn warming, with distinct characteristics due to the station locations relative to Coronation Island, the largest and highest island of the SOIs. For example, warm events at Signy are warmer (by an average of around 3°C) than the corresponding concurrent temperatures at Orcadas. The number of warm events per year has significantly increased over the record periods at both stations, which could potentially impact ecosystems by increasing melting of snow and ice. Extreme warm events at Signy are dominated by föhn warming in combination with ARs originating from the Southern Atlantic Ocean, where warm, moisture‐rich air is rapidly advected towards the islands by enhanced northerly winds. By contrast, the Orcadas warm extremes involve both warm‐air advection and föhn warming associated with enhanced northwesterlies/westerlies with ARs originating in the Pacific Ocean that travel across the Drake Passage. Simulation of one of the top 10 warm events for Signy station using a 1‐km grid spacing configuration of the atmosphere‐only UK Met Office Unified Model is used to disentangle the role of local versus large‐scale forcing. We find that the majority of the warming can be attributed to föhn effects for the case study. These results demonstrate the complexity of Antarctic temperature extremes.

Impacts of marine cloud brightening scheme on climatic extremes in the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract As an ecologically fragile plateau and major water source in Asia, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has grown warmer over recent decades, contributing to frequent occurrence of extreme climate events. It is urgently needed to find a suitable option to mitigate climate change impacts in the TP. The marine cloud brightening (MCB) scheme is proposed to mitigate global warming through the increasing cloud droplet number concentration of low marine clouds to reflect some solar radiation back into space. Until now, impacts of MCB scheme on the TP have not been investigated. In this study, we utilized 13 Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices to assess the evolution of climate extremes over the TP with/without MCB implementation. We found that although the MCB is implemented over ocean only, it would cause significant changes on climate extremes in the TP which is very far from oceans and much higher than sea level. During 2030–2059, MCB implementation can decrease warm temperature extremes, leading to a significant decrease in the TXx index by 6–18°C, the TX90p index by 15–45 days, and the TN90p index by 15–50 days. MCB implementation would also have some cooling effects on cold temperature extremes, leading to an increase in the ID index by 30–80 days, the TX10p index by 22–32 days, and the TN10p index by about 12 days and a decrease in the TNn index by 0.5–1.5°C. Although MCB implementation would not have much impacts on precipitation extremes, it would significantly increase the area of the region with <10% drought frequency, and increase the drought intensity in the west of Lhasa city.

Modeling hyperthermal events in the Mesozoic-Paleogene periods: a review

Hyperthermal events, which are characterized by rapid and extreme warming, occurred at several points throughout the Mesozoic to Paleogene periods. Model simulation studies have been conducted to investigate the mechanisms behind these events, including the carbon fluxes required to drive observed warming and isotope dynamics, the impact of warming on continental weathering, seawater pH, ocean anoxia, and the mechanism that terminated the warming. Studies using simple box models, Earth system box models, or 3D Earth system models have suggested that warming had a significant biogeochemical impact and would enhance continental weathering, increase ocean anoxia, and drive marine acidification. However, the magnitudes of these impacts remain debated and require further modeling work, as do the reconstructions of carbon fluxes and compositions. This review provides an overview of the current state of knowledge on hyperthermal events and proposes possible modeling development directions to better understand the causes and impacts of these events. Particularly, new long-term ‘semi-spatial’ Earth system models are promising tools for providing new solutions and perspectives on the biogeochemical responses to warming events and the carbon fluxes behind hyperthermal events from the Mesozoic to Paleogene periods.

Population and Transcriptomic Changes of the Tropical Fish Parasite Caligus confusus (Copepoda: Caligidae) with Seasonal Variations in Sea Temperature

Fish–parasite systems could be subject to two scenarios under climate change: (i) increased water temperature might enhance parasite metabolism, allowing the parasite to spread rapidly; (ii) parasitism could decrease if the optimal temperature for growth and transmission is exceeded. Sea lice are parasitic copepods commonly found on marine fish in tropical regions, yet their biology remains poorly investigated. In this study, we analyzed the changes in infection levels and the transcriptomic response of the tropical sea louse Caligus confusus to two seasonal seawater temperatures (30 °C, “warm”, and 21 °C, “cold”). The prevalence of C. confusus was significantly higher in the colder water. A de novo transcriptomic analysis of C. confusus, the first for a tropical sea louse, revealed 426 over-expressed and 1402 down-expressed transcripts at the lower temperature. In particular, we observed over-expression of transcripts encoding vitellogenins (vit-1, vit-2, vit-4, and vit-6) and matrix metalloproteinases (mmp-2 and mmp-9), which are involved in reproduction and development. These results suggest that the cold tropical season physiologically favors C. confusus and that low temperature favors embryo development, which might ultimately lead to a higher prevalence. It is possible, therefore, that climate change could reduce some tropical sea lice populations during extreme warming events.

Additive multiple predator effects increase prey mortality under experimental warming in a rocky intertidal food web

Climate warming is expected to alter species interactions, which are shaped by components of individual foraging behavior. Yet few studies examine species' behavioral responses to inform predictions about how species interactions will be affected by warming. Multiple predator effects (MPEs) may be mediated by climatic warming, especially in highly diverse coastal ecosystems that are prone to extreme warming events. In a laboratory experiment, we quantified the effects of elevated sea water temperature on mortality rates of mussels (Mytilus californianus, Conrad, 1837), and the behavioral responses of their predators: crabs (Romaleon antennarium, Stimpson, 1856) and sea stars (Pisaster ochraceus, Brandt, 1835), to understand how warming affects MPEs and if predators' behavioral responses to warming are indicative of the outcome of MPEs. Sea star effects on mussel mortality did not vary with temperature, but declined threefold in the presence of crabs, due to behavioral avoidance of physical contact with crabs. In contrast, the effect of crabs on mussel mortality was ten times higher under elevated temperature, but was unaffected by sea stars. In mixed predator treatments, crabs caused significant mussel mortality, but sea stars had weaker impacts, regardless of temperature. Consequently, multiple predators had effects that did not differ from those of the more effective crab predator. Increasing temperature in the eastern North Pacific may create locations where crabs become the dominant predator of mussels, with warming increasing predation risk for mussels in this region. Field studies should examine the effects of warming on crab predation on mussels in this system.

Effect of Baseline Period on Quantification of Climate Extremes Over the United States

AbstractExtreme climate events are societally harmful and have increased in frequency and intensity in recent decades. Indices based on temperature and precipitation are a valuable way to quantify climate extremes. Certain indices are defined relative to percentiles, which are dependent on a climatological baseline period. In this study, indices computed using temperature and precipitation from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 are calculated using percentiles from three baseline periods: 1981–2010, 1991–2020 and 1981–2020. Updating the baseline period from 1981 to 2010 to 1991–2020 leads to significant changes in the quantification of temperature and precipitation extremes over the United States over 1980–2021. Using the later baseline period indicates more cold extremes, fewer warm extremes, and fewer but more intense precipitation extremes throughout the US, with regional variation. Changing the baseline period can mislead the public and decision makers, potentially undermining the appropriate response to climate‐related health risks.

Patchy and Pink: Dynamics of a Chlainomonas sp. (Chlamydomonadales, chlorophyta) algal bloom on Bagley Lake, North Cascades, WA.

Snow algal blooms frequently occur throughout alpine and polar environments during spring and summer months; however, our understanding of bloom dynamics is limited. We tracked a recurrent bloom of Chlainomonas sp. on Upper Bagley Lake in the North Cascade Mountains, USA, to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics in bloom color intensity, community photophysiology, and community composition over eight weeks. We found that the algae biomass had a dynamic patchy distribution over space and time, which was decoupled from changes in community composition and life-cycle progress averaged across the bloom. The proportional representation of Chlainomonas sp. remained consistent throughout the study while the overall community composition shows a progression through the bloom. We found that community photophysiology, measured by the maximum quantum yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), decreased on average throughout the bloom. These findings suggest that the Chlainomonas sp. community on Bagley Lake is not simply an algal bloom with rapid increase in biomass followed by a population crash, as is often seen in aquatic systems, though there is a physiological trajectory and sensitivity to environmental stress. These results contribute to our understanding of the biology of Chlainomonas sp. and its response to environmental stress, specifically an extreme warming event.

Plasticity and the adaptive evolution of switchlike reaction norms under environmental change.

Phenotypic plasticity is often posited as an avenue for adaptation to environmental change, whereby environmental influences on phenotypes could shift trait expression toward new optimal values. Conversely, plastic trait expression may inhibit adaptation to environmental change by reducing selective pressure on ill-adapted traits. While plastic responses are often assumed to be linear, nonlinear phenotype-environment relationships are common, especially in thermally sensitive traits. Here we examine nonlinear plasticity in a trait with great ecological and evolutionary significance: sexual phenotype in species with environmental sex determination (ESD). In species with ESD, development switches between male and female at an environmental threshold (the inflection point). The inflection point is a key trait for adaptive responses to changing environments and should evolve toward the new optimum in order to maintain evolutionarily stable sex ratios. We used an individual-based theoretical model to investigate how two forms of plasticity in the ESD reaction norm-the nonlinear slope of the reaction norm and a linear shift in the inflection point-influence the evolution of the inflection point under climate warming. We found that steeper reaction norm slopes (high nonlinear plasticity) promoted evolution toward new optimal phenotypes (higher inflection points). In contrast, increased linear plasticity in the inflection point (shift) hindered adaptive evolution. Additionally, populations in moderate warming scenarios showed greater adaptive evolution of the inflection point compared with populations in extreme warming scenarios, suggesting that the proximity of existing phenotypes to new optimal phenotypes influences evolutionary outcomes. Unexpectedly, we found greater population persistence under high climate variability, due to the increased production of rare-sex individuals in unusually cold years. Our results demonstrate that different forms of phenotypic plasticity have crucially different effects on adaptive evolution. Plasticity that prevented sex ratio bias hindered the evolution of the inflection point, while plasticity that exacerbated sex ratio bias promoted adaptation to environmental change.

Impact of solar radiation on indoor thermal comfort near highly glazed façades in a hot-humid subtropical climate: An experimental evaluation

Solar radiation has a profound impact on indoor thermal conditions, particularly in highly glazed spaces. However, there have been limited field measurements on this subject. Focusing on subtropical climate, this study investigated the effects of irradiation on thermal comfort from two aspects, disparities in glass properties and spatial positions, through a field measurement. Six test cells, each equipped with a representative type of glass, were established; two measurement points were set at inner and near-window positions to analyze the spatial disparities and impacts of solar radiation asymmetry. PMV-PPD-based evaluation criteria were employed to assess the long-term comfort levels and classified by environmental quality index (EQI); additionally, we assessed the risk of overheating by considering two indices: overheating hours and overheating severity, which represent the duration and extent of thermal discomfort. The results indicated that radiation asymmetry varied depending on glass properties and spatial/temporal difference, leading to partial thermal discomfort. Specifically, the MRT at the near-window point increased significantly, reaching 50.8 °C for single-pane glass, 40.1 °C for single-pane tinted glass, and a minimum of 32.8 °C for double-pane reflective glass after 14:30 due to direct sunlight. In contrast, the MRT at the indoor positions remained relatively stable at around 25 °C–27 °C, irrespective of the glazing type. SHGC of glass is critical for thermal comfort, as higher SHGC values intensify the sensation of extreme warmth. Through experiments, this study quantified the relationship between thermal discomfort and glazing properties, providing valuable insights for glazing facades design that can optimize indoor thermal environments.

A new Bartonian elasmobranch assemblage from the Kutch Basin, western India, and its significance in the context of paleoclimate change

ABSTRACT The upper part of the Harudi Formation of the Kutch basin in Gujarat, western India, has recently yielded a heretofore undocumented assemblage of elasmobranchs, including extinct sand tiger sharks Brachycarcharias lerichei and Striatolamia macrota, extinct tiger sharks Galeocerdo eaglesomei and G. clarkensis, requiem shark Carcharhinus mancinae, as well as sawfish Pristis sp. A bony fish taxon represented by Trichiurus sp. was also recovered. After a 43-years gap, this study provides a taxonomic update on the middle Eocene sharks of Kutch. Their coexistence with the larger benthic foraminifera Nummulites obtusus and planktonic foraminifera Orbulinoides beckmanni dates this fish fauna to 40–41.03 Ma, which corresponds to the time frame of the Bartonian transgression and extreme warming event Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO). The MECO elasmobranch assemblage of Kutch comes from shelf settings with bathymetry of 30–60 m, and it differs from those associated with Paleocene–Eocene hyperthermal events and deposited in the bay complex. It seems that G. clarkensis and C. mancinae emerged in Kutch during MECO. The global stratigraphic distribution demonstrates that B. lerichei and S. macrota originated in North America, and their appearance in Kutch expands their geographic range into the eastern Tethys realm, possibly as a result of MECO-linked Bartonian/Kirther transgression.

Vegetation Dynamics and Its Response to Extreme Climate on the Inner Mongolian Plateau during 1982–2020

The impact of extreme climate change on terrestrial ecosystems continues to intensify. This study was conducted to understand extreme climate–vegetation interactions under exacerbated frequency, severity, and duration of extreme climatic events. The Inner Mongolian Plateau (IMP) was selected due to its sensitive natural location, which is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and daily meteorological station data from 1982 to 2020, changes in the patterns of vegetation and extreme climate in the three ecological zones (forest, steppe, and desert steppe) of the IMP were identified. Furthermore, the effects of extreme climate on vegetation were quantified using correlation analysis and a geographical detector. The results showed that the annual NDVI of 95.1%, 50.6%, and 19.5% of the area increased significantly in the forest, steppe, and desert steppe, respectively. The Tx90p (warm days) and Tn90p (warm nights) increased significantly at the rate of 0.21 and 0.235 day·yr−1, respectively, while the Tx10p (cold days) and Tn10p (cold nights) showed a significantly decreasing trend at the rate of −0.105 and −0.117 day·yr−1. An extreme warming phenomenon was observed in all extreme temperature indices on the IMP. The results of both the correlation analysis and factor detector indicated that extreme temperature intensity and frequency greatly affected forest vegetation. In contrast, extreme precipitation intensity and frequency were relatively more important to the vegetation of the desert steppe. The lag in NDVI response to extreme temperature intensity was not less than three months in the IMP; however, extreme precipitation intensity exhibited a two-month time lag in the NDVI. This study can improve our understanding of extreme climate–vegetation interactions, provide theoretical support for disaster mitigation, and aid in understanding the ecological environment of the IMP.

Freshwater ecosystem collapse and mass mortalities at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum

The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), an abrupt global warming event linked to massive injections of carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, was associated with large-scale deep-sea benthic extinction and major changes in planktonic ecosystems. However, due to the paucity of well-preserved fossils and high-resolution paleoenvironmental records, the PETM impacts on terrestrial ecosystems remain unclear. Here, we present geochemical and biological records of a lacustrine PETM section with exquisite fossils preserved from the Jianghan Basin, eastern China. Our data reveal the temporal relationship between carbon cycle perturbation, environmental changes, and biotic responses. Paleotemperatures derived from carbonate clumped isotope indicate a rapid increase by ~11 °C, synchronous with a negative carbon isotope excursion in organic matter and carbonates. Mass mortalities of terrestrial and aquatic animals were coincident with rapid warming during the PETM. Taphonomic features of animals, along with geochemical and sedimentological evidence, suggest that hyperthermal-induced toxigenic cyanobacterial blooms appear to be the most probable cause of the mass mortalities. Our findings expose a direct link between extreme warmth and increased probability of catastrophic ecological events in terrestrial ecosystems.

Tropical Pacific Influence on Summertime South African High‐Frequency Temperature Variability and Heat Waves

AbstractThe dominant mode of interannual variability in summertime high‐frequency tropospheric temperature fluctuations over Southern Africa is found to be associated with tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability, in such a manner that El Niño is typically accompanied by enhanced high‐frequency variability. This relationship is established via El Niño's teleconnection that contributes to shifting the midlatitude jetstream and associated baroclinic zone equatorward, into the vicinity of Southern Africa, which enhances the baroclinic conversion of energy from the seasonal‐mean flow to high‐frequency eddies. The enhanced temperature variance, combined with the overall warmer summertime‐mean temperatures induced by El Niño, results in more frequent warm extremes over Southern Africa.

Spatial–Temporal Variations in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes during 1960–2019 in Guizhou Province, China

Under the background of global warming, climate extremes have become a crucial issue with distinct heterogeneity features in different regions. Hence, spatial–temporal changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Guizhou Province were investigated utilizing daily maximums and minimums of temperature and daily precipitation data during 1960–2019 based on trend analysis. It was concluded that, firstly, all warm extremes but warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) are significantly enhanced, whereas for cold extremes, the monthly minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn) is significantly enhanced, while cool nights (TN10P), frost days (FD0), ice days (ID0), and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) are significantly decreased. And all precipitation extremes but consecutive wet days (CWD) have no significant variational trend in Guizhou Province. Secondly, variational trends of temperature extremes are more prominent and robust in western Guizhou Province. Temperature and precipitation extremes show large differences from spring to winter. Thirdly, temperature extremes are closely correlated with strength, area, and the westernmost ridge point index of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), whereas precipitation extremes show no distinct correlation with WPSH. The WPSH has significantly strengthened and shifted westward in the past 60 years, leading to less total cloud cover and more downward solar wave flux reaching Earth’s surface, accordingly, exacerbating warm extremes and weakening cold extremes. These results will benefit understanding the heterogeneity of climate extremes at a regional scale.

Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over the Southern Extratropical Continents in Response to Antarctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract Current climate models project that Antarctic sea ice will decrease by the end of the twenty-first century. Previous studies have suggested that Antarctic sea ice changes have impacts on atmospheric circulation and the mean state of the Southern Hemisphere. However, little is known about whether Antarctic sea ice loss may have a tangible impact on climate extremes over the southern continents and whether ocean–atmosphere coupling plays an important role in changes of climate extremes over the southern continents. In this study, we conduct a set of fully coupled and atmosphere-only model experiments forced by present and future Antarctic sea ice cover. It is found that the projected Antarctic sea ice loss by the end of the twenty-first century leads to an increase in the frequency and duration of warm extremes (especially warm nights) over the southern continents and a decrease in cold extremes over most regions. The frequency and duration of wet extremes are projected to increase over South America and Antarctica, whereas changes in dry days and the longest dry spell vary with regions. Further Antarctic sea ice loss under a quadrupling of CO2 leads to similar but larger changes. Comparison between the coupled and atmosphere-only model experiments suggests that ocean dynamics and their interactions with the atmosphere induced by Antarctic sea ice loss play a key role in driving the identified changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over southern continents. By comparing with global warming experiments, we find that Antarctic sea ice loss may affect temperature and precipitation extremes for some regions under greenhouse warming, especially Antarctica.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 drove an increase in tropical cyclone intensity during the early Toarcian hyperthermal

The occurrence of sedimentary storm deposits around the Tethys Ocean during the early Toarcian hyperthermal (~183 Ma) suggests that intensified tropical cyclone (TC) activity occurred in response to CO2 rise and marked warming. However, this hypothesized linkage between extreme warmth and storm activity remains untested, and the spatial pattern of any changes in TCs is unclear. Here, model results show that there were two potential storm genesis centers over Tethys during the early Toarcian hyperthermal located around the northwestern and southeastern Tethys. The empirically determined doubling of CO2 concentration that accompanied the early Toarcian hyperthermal (~500 to ~1,000 ppmv) leads to increased probability of stronger storms over Tethys, in tandem with more favorable conditions for coastal erosion. These results match well with the geological occurrence of storm deposits during the early Toarcian hyperthermal and confirm that increased TC intensity would have accompanied global warming.

Tree species growth response to climate warming varies by forest canopy position in boreal and temperate forests.

Reports of forest sensitivity to climate change are based largely on the study of overstory trees, which contribute significantly to forest growth and wood supply. However, juveniles in the understory are also critical to predict future forest dynamics and demographics, but their sensitivity to climate remains less known. In this study, we applied boosted regression tree analysis to compare the sensitivity of understory and overstory trees for the 10 most common tree species in eastern North America using growth information from an unprecedented network of nearly 1.5 million tree records from 20,174 widely distributed, permanent sample plots across Canada and the United States. Fitted models were then used to project the near-term (2041-2070) growth for each canopy and tree species. We observed an overall positive effect of warming on tree growth for both canopies and most species, leading to an average of 7.8%-12.2% projected growth gains with climate change under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The magnitude of these gains peaked in colder, northern areas for both canopies, while growth declines are projected for overstory trees in warmer, southern regions. Relative to overstory trees, understory tree growth was less positively affected by warming in northern regions, while displaying more positive responses in southern areas, likely driven by the buffering effect of the canopy from warming and climate extremes. Observed differences in climatic sensitivity between canopy positions underscore the importance of accounting for differential growth responses to climate between forest strata in future studies to improve ecological forecasts. Furthermore, latitudinal variation in the differential sensitivity of forest strata to climate reported here may help refine our comprehension of species range shift and changes in suitable habitat under climate change.

Modeling interactions of planting date and phenology in Louisiana rice under current and future climate conditions

AbstractThe performance of novel genetic combinations under untested environmental scenarios and management practices can be virtually examined using process‐based crop models. Indeed, there has been a long‐standing interest in the crop modeling community to expand the utility of process‐based models to broader germplasm panels (e.g., breeding lines or diversity panels). Yet, there is often a misalignment between data needed to parameterize process‐based crop models and data routinely collected by breeding programs. To address this gap, we leverage a dataset from a long‐term trial on advanced experimental lines and released varieties from the Louisiana rice breeding program to calibrate and evaluate the decision support for agrotechnology transfer (DSSAT) CSM‐CERES‐Rice model. Next, we use data collected by the same program on a large collection of breeding lines to generate numerous in silico genotypes and evaluate their performance across different management practices (different planting dates) and three climatic conditions (current climate and two future scenarios based on CMIP6‐SSP5‐8.5 climate projections). Our simulations indicate that shifting the current planting date (i.e., March) back by 1–2 months (to January) under moderate warming conditions (+1.3°C warmer and 41% higher CO2 level), and 2–3 months (to December) under extreme warming conditions (+4.1°C warmer and 133% higher CO2 level) could potentially offset the negative impacts of the increased future temperature. Given earlier planting, shorter duration varieties (i.e., those with shorter growing degree day requirements during the vegetative and grain filling periods) are found to be more favorable for supporting high yields. Such varieties with a shorter thermal time to anthesis are found to remain just outside of the current pool of variation for this trait. Opportunities and challenges for leveraging breeding data in process‐based modeling to derive insights into adaptation strategies for future climates are further discussed.

Tail Dependence as a Measure of Teleconnected Warm and Cold Extremes of North American Wintertime Temperatures

Abstract Current models for spatial extremes are concerned with the joint upper (or lower) tail of the distribution at two or more locations. Such models cannot account for teleconnection patterns of 2-m surface air temperature (T2m) in North America, where very low temperatures in the contiguous United States may coincide with very high temperatures in Alaska in the wintertime. This dependence between warm and cold extremes motivates the need for a model with opposite-tail dependence in spatial extremes. This work develops a statistical modeling framework that has flexible behavior in all four pairings of high and low extremes at pairs of locations. In particular, we use a mixture of rotations of common Archimedean copulas to capture various combinations of four-corner tail dependence. We study teleconnected T2m extremes using ERA5 of daily average 2-m temperature during the boreal winter. The estimated mixture model quantifies the strength of opposite-tail dependence between warm temperatures in Alaska and cold temperatures in the midlatitudes of North America, as well as the reverse pattern. These dependence patterns are shown to correspond to blocked and zonal patterns of midtropospheric flow. This analysis extends the classical notion of correlation-based teleconnections to considering dependence in higher quantiles.

A 4‐week advance in the growing season in Napa Valley, California,USA

AbstractThe growing season start and duration, along with other temperature‐related measures of importance to premium wine grapes in Napa Valley, California have changed as climate over the western United States has warmed. The growing season start has varied from year to year with a standard deviation of about 3 weeks, but over the 1958–2016 record a linear fit to the time sequence shows it advanced by more than 4 weeks. Over the study period, advances in the growing season were strongly influenced by temperature increases beginning in the late 1960s with warm anomalies generally persisting through recent years. The date upon which the growing season accumulated 1400 growing degree‐days also shifted earlier by about 4 weeks. Other measures swung to a warmer status, including the mean temperature of the last 45 days of the growing season, which warmed by over 1.5°C. Warming days and especially warming nights contributed to the growing season advance as well as trends towards warmer expressions of other viticultural measures. Years with earlier and warmer growing seasons experienced a substantial reduction in the number of daily cool extremes, and an increase in daily warm extremes, including the number of days whose temperature reaches or exceeds 35°C.