Warm ENSO Research Articles

Interannual Variation of the Winter Rainfall in Malaysia Caused by the Activity of Rain-Producing Disturbances

Abstract Heavy rainfall/flood (HRF) cyclones contribute close to two-thirds of the total rainfall PT in both parts of Malaysia [peninsular Malaysia (M) and west Borneo (B)]. Judging by the rainfall variance produced by these cyclones and its correlation (~0.9) with the interannual PT variation, this variation is caused primarily by HRF cyclones through two factors: 1) their westward propagation properties and 2) their rain-producing efficiency. The former is regulated by the change of the cyclonic shear flow around the near-equator trough, while the latter is determined by the change of the convergence of water vapor flux toward tropical Southeast Asia. During November–December of cold (warm) ENSO phases, the westward propagation of the cyclone's parent cold surge vortices (CSVs) from the Philippine (P) vicinity (Borneo) to peninsular Malaysia CSVPMs (CSVBMs) and intensified (weakened) convergence of water vapor flux toward tropical South/Southeast Asia act to enhance (reduce) the rain-producing efficiency of HRFPM (HRFBM) cyclones. During winter cold (warm) phases, the deepening (filling) of the near-equator trough crossing west Borneo allows some CSVs formed/trapped in Borneo CSVBBs to develop into HRFBB (HRFBBM) cyclones (to propagate westward to peninsular Malaysia). The rain-producing efficiency of HRFBB and HRFBBM cyclones is also increased (reduced) by the intensified (weakened) convergence of water flux toward tropical South/Southeast Asia. Interannual variations of both PT(M) and PT(B) caused by the impacts of the circulation pattern changes on occurrences of HRFPM and HRFBB/HRFBBM cyclones, respectively, and their rain-producing efficiency may pose a new challenge to simulate the weather–climate relationship in climate modeling.

High and low latitude types of the downstream influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Using reanalysis data, we find that the downstream-propagating quasi-stationary Rossby wave train associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally propagates along a high (low)-latitude pathway during warm (cold) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) boreal winters. Consistent with the different propagation directions of the NAO-related downstream wave train, during the warm (cold) ENSO winters, the NAO is associated with significant 300 hPa geopotential height anomalies over eastern Siberia (the Arabian Sea, the east coast of Asia at around 40°N, and the North Pacific), and the near-surface air temperature perturbations associated with the NAO over the high latitudes of Asia are relatively strong (weak). Based on these differences, we argue that the NAO has two distinct types of downstream influence: a high-latitude type and a low-latitude type. Furthermore, we argue that the two types of NAO’s downstream influence are modulated by the intensity of the subtropical potential vorticity (PV) meridional gradient over Africa. When this gradient is weak (strong), as in the warm (cold) ENSO winters, the NAO’s downstream influence tends to be of the high (low)-latitude type. These results are further supported by analysis of intraseasonal NAO events. We separate NAO events into two categories in terms of the intensity of the subtropical PV gradient over Africa. Composites of the NAO events accompanied by a weak (strong) subtropical PV gradient show that the NAO-related downstream wave train tends to propagate along a high (low)-latitude pathway.

Influence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation in the mesosphere

Using the middle atmosphere temperature data set observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite experiment between 2002 and 2012, and temperatures simulated by the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model version 3.5 (WACCM3.5) between 1953 and 2005, we studied the influence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on middle atmosphere temperature during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) wintertime. For the first time, a significant winter temperature response to ENSO in the middle mesosphere has been observed, with an anomalous warming of ~1.0 K/MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) in the tropics and an anomalous cooling of ~ −2.0 K/MEI in the NH middle latitudes. The observed temperature responses to ENSO in the mesosphere are opposite to those in the stratosphere, in agreement with previous modeling studies. Temperature responses to ENSO observed by SABER show similar patterns to those simulated by the WACCM3.5 model. Analysis of the WACCM3.5 residual mean meridional circulation response to ENSO reveals a significant downwelling in the tropical mesosphere and upwelling in the NH middle and high latitudes during warm ENSO events, which is mostly driven by anomalous eastward gravity wave forcing in the NH mesosphere.

Changes in the Relationship between ENSO and Asia–Pacific Midlatitude Winter Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract Interdecadal changes in the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and midlatitude atmospheric circulation are investigated in this study. Comparison of associations between ENSO and midlatitude atmospheric circulation anomalies between 1958–76 and 1977–2010 suggest that during 1958–76, ENSO exerted a strong impact on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the associated atmospheric circulation pattern was similar to the positive North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). In contrast, during 1977–2010, the NPO-like atmospheric pattern disappeared. Instead, ENSO exerted a strong impact on the eastern North Pacific Ocean (NP) and North America, and the associated atmospheric circulation pattern resembled the Pacific–North America (PNA) teleconnection. Also, significant correlations between ENSO and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the western subtropical NP during 1958–76 became insignificant during 1977–2010, whereas negative correlations between ENSO and SSTAs in the central and northeastern subtropical NP became more significant since the mid-1970s. Further analyses suggest that the interdecadal shift of the Aleutian low, which occurred around the mid-1970s, might be responsible for the identified changes. Before the mid-1970s, warm ENSO events generated an anomalous anticyclone over the western NP, which is a key system bridging ENSO and EAWM-related atmospheric circulation. After the mid-1970s, the Aleutian low intensified and shifted eastward, leading to the impact of ENSO prevailing over the eastern NP. In addition, the weakened (strengthened) ENSO–NPO/EAWM (ENSO–PNA) relationship likely contributed to the weakened (strengthened) relationship between ENSO and SSTAs over the western (central and eastern) subtropical NP.

Western pacific warm pool and ENSO asymmetry in CMIP3 models

Theoretical and empirical studies have suggested that an underestimate of the ENSO asymmetry may be accompanied by a climatologically smaller and warmer western Pacific warm pool. In light of this suggestion, simulations of the tropical Pacific climate by 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) climate models that do not use flux adjustment were evaluated. Our evaluation revealed systematic biases in both the mean state and ENSO statistics. The mean state in most of the models had a smaller and warmer warm pool. This common bias in the mean state was accompanied by a common bias in the simulated ENSO statistics: a significantly weak asymmetry between the two phases of ENSO. Moreover, despite the generally weak ENSO asymmetry simulated by all models, a positive correlation between the magnitude of the bias in the simulated warm-pool size and the magnitude of the bias in the simulated ENSO asymmetry was found. These findings support the suggested link between ENSO asymmetry and the tropical mean state-the climatological size and temperature of the warm pool in particular. Together with previous studies, these findings light up a path to improve the simulation of the tropical Pacific mean state by climate models: enhancing the asymmetry of ENSO in the climate models.

Triggering of El Niño onset through trade wind–induced charging of the equatorial Pacific

AbstractSea surface temperature variations over the equatorial Pacific associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) produce changes in climates across the globe. Here we report evidence from observationally constrained ocean data for the initiation of warm ENSO events (El Niños) resulting from subsurface equatorial Pacific heat content increases related to tropical/extratropical sea level pressure (SLP) changes over the North Pacific. We hypothesize that the increase in heat content is a response to SLP‐generated variations in the North Pacific trade winds, which we term trade wind charging of the equatorial Pacific. Experiments using a high‐resolution numerical ocean model verify that the charging of subsurface heat content along the equatorial Pacific can be induced by SLP‐generated trade wind variations. Furthermore, analysis of the numerical model results and historical observations indicates that the trade wind–induced ocean heat content increases are sufficiently large to initiate the onset of El Niño events, which mature approximately 12 months after the trade wind forcing itself.

On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes – Part 2: The effects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanic eruptions and contributions of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes

Abstract. We present the first spatial analysis of "fingerprints" of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric aerosol load after major volcanic eruptions (El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo) in extreme low and high (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively) and mean values of total ozone for the northern and southern mid-latitudes (defined as the region between 30° and 60° north and south, respectively). Significant influence on ozone extremes was found for the warm ENSO phase in both hemispheres during spring, especially towards low latitudes, indicating the enhanced ozone transport from the tropics to the extra-tropics. Further, the results confirm findings of recent work on the connection between the ENSO phase and the strength and extent of the southern ozone "collar". For the volcanic eruptions the analysis confirms findings of earlier studies for the northern mid-latitudes and gives new insights for the Southern Hemisphere. The results provide evidence that the negative effect of the eruption of El Chichón might be partly compensated by a strong warm ENSO phase in 1982–1983 at southern mid-latitudes. The strong west-east gradient in the coefficient estimates for the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and the analysis of the relationship between the AAO and ENSO phase, the extent and the position of the southern ozone "collar" and the polar vortex structure provide clear evidence for a dynamical "masking" of the volcanic signal at southern mid-latitudes. The paper also analyses the contribution of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes. Here, quite heterogeneous results have been found on spatial scales. In general the results show that EESC and the 11-yr solar cycle can be identified as major contributors to long-term ozone changes. However, a strong contribution of dynamical features (El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) to ozone variability and trends is found at a regional level. For the QBO (at 30 and 50 hPa), strong influence on total ozone variability and trends is found over large parts of the northern and southern mid-latitudes, especially towards equatorial latitudes. Strong influence of ENSO is found over the Northern and Southern Pacific, Central Europe and central southern mid-latitudes. For the NAO, strong influence on column ozone is found over Labrador/Greenland, the Eastern United States, the Euro-Atlantic Sector, and Central Europe. For the NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strong influence on ozone variability and long-term changes is found at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and central southern mid-latitudes.

Wind speed trends over China: quantifying the magnitude and assessing causality

ABSTRACTTemporal trends (1971–2007) in 10‐m wind speeds from homogeneous observational data sets from 540 weather stations and reanalysis data sets are quantified and compared. Also, possible physical cause of inconsistencies between the data sets and temporal trends and variability in wind speeds are investigated. Annual mean wind speeds from the observational data exhibit pronounced downward trends especially in the upper percentiles and during spring. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis reproduces the observed wind speeds, seasonality and temporal trends better than the ERA‐40 even though it shows larger interannual fluctuations. The warm and cold AO and ENSO phases have significant influence on probability distribution of wind speeds, thus internal climate variability is a major source of both interannual and long‐term variability.

Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO

The cold equatorial SST bias in the tropical Pacific that is persistent in many coupled OAGCMs severely impacts the fidelity of the simulated climate and variability in this key region, such as the ENSO phenomenon. The classical bias analysis in these models usually concentrates on multi-decadal to centennial time series needed to obtain statistically robust features. Yet, this strategy cannot fully explain how the models errors were generated in the first place. Here, we use seasonal re-forecasts (hindcasts) to track back the origin of this cold bias. As such hindcasts are initialized close to observations, the transient drift leading to the cold bias can be analyzed to distinguish pre-existing errors from errors responding to initial ones. A time sequence of processes involved in the advent of the final mean state errors can then be proposed. We apply this strategy to the ENSEMBLES-FP6 project multi-model hindcasts of the last decades. Four of the five AOGCMs develop a persistent equatorial cold tongue bias within a few months. The associated systematic errors are first assessed separately for the warm and cold ENSO phases. We find that the models are able to reproduce either El Nino or La Nina close to observations, but not both. ENSO composites then show that the spurious equatorial cooling is maximum for El Nino years for the February and August start dates. For these events and at this time of the year, zonal wind errors in the equatorial Pacific are present from the beginning of the simulation and are hypothesized to be at the origin of the equatorial cold bias, generating too strong upwelling conditions. The systematic underestimation of the mixed layer depth in several models can also amplify the growth of the SST bias. The seminal role of these zonal wind errors is further demonstrated by carrying out ocean-only experiments forced by the AOCGCMs daily 10-meter wind. In a case study, we show that for several models, this forcing is sufficient to reproduce the main SST error patterns seen after 1 month in the AOCGCM hindcasts.

Spatial–Intensity Variations in Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract The spatial–intensity variability of extreme precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS) during boreal winter and relationships with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) are investigated. Daily gridded precipitation is used to define two types of contiguous regions of extreme precipitation (CREPs): the intensity and spatial extent exceeding the 75th and 90th percentiles of frequency distributions. Extreme precipitation occurs twice as frequently when the MJO is active than inactive. Joint probabilities of the fractional area of CONUS sectors when the MJO is active are 2.0–2.5 higher than probabilities during inactive days for both 75th and 90th percentile CREPs (similar for the intensity of CREPs). Probabilities of the fractional area of 75th percentile CREPs when the MJO is active in neutral ENSO are higher than during warm or cold ENSO. Joint probabilities of the fractional area during MJO and warm ENSO are higher than MJO and cold ENSO and statistically significant over southern sectors. Results are similar for joint probabilities of intensity exceedance and MJO activity in warm and cold ENSO phases. Proportions of 75th and 90th percentile CREPs for each sector and phase of the MJO are predominantly large when MJO convective signals are over the central Indian Ocean or western Pacific. Probabilities of the fractional area of 90th percentile CREPs conditioned on MJO phases, however, do not show clear predominance. This indicates that the MJO is not the sole player in the occurrences of CREPs. Last, this study concludes that probabilities of the fractional area and intensity of 75th and 90th percentile CREPs in the CONUS do not depend on the amplitude of the MJO.

Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool convection and ENSO since 1867 derived from Cambodian pine tree cellulose oxygen isotopes

The Indo‐Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is a major source of heat and moisture to the atmosphere and thus strongly influences the global climate. In this study, we investigate how moisture fluxes from the IPWP influence the stable isotope signature of precipitation over Southeast Asia by analyzing the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of tree cellulose from southern Cambodia. The cellulose δ18O record, spanning AD 1867–2006, documents a regular seasonal cycle with an average amplitude of ∼4‰ that is primarily controlled by seasonal differences in the isotopic composition of precipitation. Using the outputs from an isotope‐enabled atmospheric model, we illustrate how theδ18O of precipitation at our site is predominantly controlled by the amount of rainout that occurs over the moisture source region, the IPWP. This is verified by strong correlations of our cellulose δ18O record with instrumental measurements of precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation over the IPWP, suggesting that the cellulose δ18O could be used to reconstruct the convection intensity over the IPWP. Spectral analysis of the cellulose δ18O reveals significant peaks at 2–7 years corresponding to ENSO frequencies. The variability of the cellulose δ18O record on the ENSO band exhibits characteristics that match existing coral δ18O records from the tropical Pacific, with reduced amplitude of variability in the 1920s through the 1960s, a period of weak ENSO activity.

An Analysis of Low- and High-Frequency Summer Climate Variability around the Caribbean Antilles

This study contrasts the pattern of low-frequency (LF) and high-frequency (HF) climate variability in the eastern Caribbean. A low-pass Butterworth filter is used to study oscillations in rainfall and regional SST on time scales of greater and less than 8 yr in the period 1901–2002. The results show that the southern and northern Antilles are dominated by HF variability, whereas rainfall fluctuations in the eastern Antilles oscillate at quasi-decadal periods over the 102-yr record. In the southern Antilles, the HF rainfall signal derives from a late-summer response to the ENSO phase: warm and dry versus cool and wet. In the northern Antilles, the HF signal relates to a combination of an ENSO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase: a warm ENSO and a negative NAO bring wetter conditions, while a cool ENSO and a positive NAO bring drier conditions. The early rainfall LF signal in SST is characterized by a dipole between the North Atlantic and South Atlantic and is associated with cross-equatorial winds that promote convection in the Caribbean. The study analyzes the upper-ocean structure—in particular, a low (high) salinity signal in the tropical North Atlantic (North Pacific) that relates to LF (HF) climate variability.

Spatial and temporal precipitation variability in the Okavango–Kwando–Zambezi catchment, southern Africa

In southern Africa, multi-decadal trends over the latter half of the 20th century indicate declining mean annual precipitation, increasing variability, and increased number of warm phase ENSO events. One suggestion for the change in precipitation pattern is a shift in the global coupled ocean–atmosphere system during the late 1970s. We investigate the variability in inter-annual regional precipitation dynamics pre/post the late 1970s climate shift within the Okavango–Kwando–Zambezi (OKZ) catchment in southern Africa through a descriptive spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall patterns from 1950 to 2005. Annual precipitation totals for each basin are calculated and numbers of wet (upper tercile) and dry (lower tercile) years in two periods (1950–75 and 1980–2005) are compared. Rainfall associated with, and frequency of, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are also investigated. Coincidences of extremes in local and regional rainfall are examined to determine how association in precipitation patterns may vary across the catchment. Results indicate decreasing precipitation and increased dry years with warm phases of ENSO across all three sub-catchments. This has important implications for the future Kavango–Zambezi Transboundary Conservation Area (KAZA), a region that provides a vital wildlife corridor through which local precipitation and exotic streamflow constitute important water sources in an otherwise water-limited ecosystem.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki signal in the stratosphere

El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to be the largest source of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere. However, the variability in the tropical Pacific since 1979 seems to be associated not only with “canonical” ENSO events but also with a variation thereof known as ENSO Modoki, which is characterized by warm anomalies in the central Pacific, west from those occurring during a typical ENSO. This works analyzes the signal of ENSO Modoki in the stratosphere and compares it to canonical ENSO by using the chemistry‐climate Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM3.5). The results reveal a significant warming in the Southern Hemisphere polar stratosphere during boreal winter months, which propagates downward in early spring; this is absent during canonical warm ENSO events. On the other hand, in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere, the anomalous warming typical of canonical El Niño episodes during boreal winter is not statistically significant during El Niño Modoki events. These differences are related in WACCM3.5 to changes in tropical convection and tropospheric teleconnections associated with each type of event. In particular, an enhancement and westward displacement of the anomalous convective area during El Niño Modoki episodes is related to an intensification of the Pacific South American teleconnection pattern and a weakening of the Aleutian Low. During cold ENSO Modoki events a significant anomalous cooling is present in the model simulations.

Influence of Mean Flow on the ENSO–Vertical Wind Shear Relationship over the Northern Tropical Atlantic

Abstract Vertical wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean plays an important role in mediating hurricane activity. The vertical shear variability over the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes is affected by local factors as well as by the remote influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, as indicated by observational and climate modeling analyses. Climate model simulations of the ENSO–shear relationship are compared with observations. It is shown that there is a strong influence of background mean flow on the ENSO–shear relationship, because of the inherently nonlinear nature of vertical wind shear. In particular, the simulation of zonal flow over the tropical Atlantic is shown to play a critical role in how the remote influence of ENSO modulates the shear. Even with realistic simulations of the ENSO-induced westerly anomaly in the upper troposphere, overestimated easterly background flow in the model simulations can alter the relationship between ENSO and vertical wind shear, resulting in decreased vertical wind shear during warm ENSO events. This nonlinear superposition has important implications for the assessment of trends in large-scale environmental factors affecting tropical cyclogenesis in climate change simulations.

The implications of El Niño-Southern Oscillation signal for South China monsoon climate

The objective of this research is to explore the impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a possible connection between winter monsoon and summer monsoon over South China. In boreal winter, the strong or weak northerly anomalies due to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), sweep across the continent to the costal regions, which might be favorable for the occurrence of an ENSO event. In boreal summer, South China tends to experience less (more) rainfall and more (less) temperature extremes which might be in the mature phase of a warm (cold) ENSO event. It is also found that more frequent cold surges might be followed by less temperature extremes in the coming year. The possible connection might be that the western Pacific subtropical high after a strong (weak) EAWM year would move northward (southward) through the modification of a ENSO event; this northward (southward) western Pacific subtropical high might result in earlier (later) south China summer monsoon onset and lead to a strong (weak) summer monsoon in the coming year.

The combined effects of ENSO and the 11 year solar cycle on the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere

[1] The combined effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the 11 year solar cycle on the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere have been analyzed in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 3 in the absence of the quasi-biennial oscillation. The polar response to ENSO agrees with previous studies during solar minimum; composites of warm minus cold ENSO events show a warmer polar stratosphere and a weaker polar vortex, propagating downward as the winter evolves. During solar maximum conditions, little downward propagation of the ENSO signal is simulated, leading to colder temperatures and stronger winds in the polar lower stratosphere. The analysis of the Eliassen-Palm flux and wave index of refraction shows that this is mainly due to a reduction of upward propagating extratropical planetary wave number 1 component caused by changes in the background winds in the subtropics related to a warmer tropical upper stratosphere during solar maximum. The effect of the 11 year solar cycle variability on the polar stratosphere is not significant during cold ENSO events until February. During warm ENSO events, a statistically significant colder polar lower stratosphere and stronger polar vortex are simulated throughout the winter, and no downward propagation of this signal occurs. This is mainly due to the combined effects of solar maximum and warm ENSO conditions on the wave mean flow interaction. These results show a nonlinear behavior of the extratropical stratosphere response to the combination of the two forcings and highlight the need to stratify with respect to ENSO and solar conditions and analyze the seasonal march throughout the winter.

Drought onset and recovery over the United States

[1] This study employs precipitation (P) and ensemble soil moisture data sets from 1916 to 2007 to study the drought onset and demise over the United States. Both meteorological drought, classified using the standardized precipitation indices (SPIs), and agricultural drought, classified using the soil moisture percentiles, are studied. Drought onset is more predictable than drought demise. It takes 5–8 months for a region to accumulate enough P deficits to begin a drought, whereas a drought demise can come within one month to one season. A few strong rainfall episodes can end drought. The preferred season for the meteorological drought onset is at the beginning of the rainy season. Even though drought has a preferred season to begin, the ratio between the onset occurring in that season and the total drought events is less than 45%. For agricultural drought, the ratio is 60% or higher for the northwestern interior states and the Southwest. Over the Southern Plains, a cold El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event occurs one season before the onset of drought. No drought events occur during the warm ENSO years. Therefore, the occurrence of a cold ENSO event can serve as an early warning for drought. For other areas influenced by ENSO, such as the lower Mississippi basin, the Ohio Valley, the Pacific Northwest, the upper Missouri basin, and the Southeast, most drought events occur during ENSO. The one-to-one correspondence between ENSO and drought is not good. For these areas, ENSO can only serve as a signal for intensive drought watch.

A palynological and palaeoclimatological record from the southern Philippines since the Last Glacial Maximum

A palynological analysis of a marine sediment core in the southern Philippines, provides a detailed regional vegetation and climate history for the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Chronology was determined by a detailed oxygen isotope record. A higher representation of pollen from tropical upper montane rainforest during the LGM indicate that this forest type moved down along elevation, probabaly due to the lowered temperature. During the last deglaciation and the early Holocene, mangroves were more expanded and tropical mid and upper montane rainforests were restricted, suggesting a rising sea-level and temperature increase. Herbaceous pollen and pteridophyte spore records indicate a much drier condition during the LGM than the Holocene. Mangrove development is controlled by conditions at the river mouth influenced by river discharge. Pteridophyte spores are abundant in wet conditions and are mainly transported by rivers. During the mid-Holocene, the reduction in mangrove pollen and pteridophyte spore appears to be a result of climate change: mainly decrease in river discharge. This may have been affected by the decreasing intensity of the Southeast Asian Monsoon, and the increasing frequency and intensity of warm ENSO events, El Nio, in this region.

Observational evidence of the delayed response of stratospheric polar vortex variability to ENSO SST anomalies

The temporal and spatial relationship between ENSO and the extratropical stratospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere is examined. In general, there exists a negative correlation between ENSO and the strength of the polar vortex, but the maximum correlation is found in the next winter season after the mature phase of ENSO event, rather than in the concurrent winter. Specifically, the stratospheric polar vortex tends to be anomalously warmer and weaker in both the concurrent and the next winter season following a warm ENSO event, and vice versa. However, the polar anomalies in the next winter are much stronger and with a deeper vertical structure than that in the concurrent winter. Our analysis also shows that, the delayed stratospheric response to ENSO is characterized with poleward and downward propagation of temperature anomalies, suggesting an ENSO-induced interannual variability of the global mass circulation in the stratosphere. Particularly, in response to the growing of a warm ENSO event, there exist warm temperature and positive isentropic mass anomalies in the midlatitude stratosphere since the preceding summer. The presence of an anomalous wavenumber-1 in the concurrent winter, associated with an anomalous Aleutian high, results in a poleward extension of warm anomalies into the polar region, and thus a weaker stratospheric polar vortex. However, the midlatitude warm temperature and positive isentropic mass anomalies persist throughout the concurrent winter till the end of the next summer. In comparison with the concurrent winter, the strengthening of poleward heat transport by an anomalous wavenumber-2 in the next winter results in a much warmer and weaker polar vortex accompanied with a colder midlatitude stratosphere.