War Peace Research Articles

What the Chilcot report teaches us

Abstract After six years the United Kingdom embarked upon an official inquiry into its participation in the 2003 attack on Iraq and role in the subsequent occupation up until 2009. The inquiry, known by the last name of its chair, Sir John Chilcot, produced an exhaustive report that contains many details of great interest, but it is disappointing when it comes to the bigger questions relating to the culpability and accountability of Tony Blair, the relationship between Britain and international law in war–peace contexts, and a considered analysis of the proper show of respect for the authority of the United Nations by a member State. This article offers a critical appraisal of the United Kingdom’s 2016 Iraq Inquiry.

전쟁 고통의 재현과 평화 : 일본 작가들의 평화그림책과 고통의 연대

본 연구는 한·중·일 3국의 그림책 작가들이 공동 작업을 통해 출간한 평화그림책 중에 일본 작가 네 명의 작품을 중심으로 감정, 구체적으로 고통이 집합적 정체성 정치의 토대가 되는 지점들을 살펴보고자 한다. 『군화가 간다』, 『사쿠라』, 『네 목소리가 들리니?』, 『평화란 어떤 걸까?』가 이에 해당된다. 감정이 글로벌 정치에 미치는 영향이 매우 크지만, 실제 글로벌 정치 무대에서나 정치학 학문분과에서 집단 간 갈등 중재나 해소를 위해 감정에 주목한 경우는 그리 많지 않다. 일본 작가들은 자신들의 그림책에서 전쟁의 ‘피해자성’을 바탕으로 자국민의 고통을 재현함으로써 민족적 일체감을 유지하고, 평화를 위해 ‘정당한’ 전쟁이 불가피하다거나, 또는 ‘우리’의 고통 재발을 위해 반전·평화가 중요하다고 강조하지 않는다. 오히려 동아시아 전쟁에서 일본, 일본인이 피해자이자 가해 주체라는 점을 분명히 함과 동시에 민족적 ‘타자’의 고통에 대한 공감을 표하기도 한다. 결과적으로, 그들은 고통의 재발을 막기 위해 어른들 뿐 아니라 미래세대인 아동들도 주체적으로 노력해야 한다는 메시지를 던짐으로써 범세계적인 차원의 반전·평화의 메시지를 던진다. 평화그림책 작가들이 만남과 소통, 협의를 통해 만들어나간 평화그림책은 과거사를 둘러싸고 감정적 갈등의 골이 깊어지고 있는 한·일 양국 간에 서로의 고통에 대한 공감과 신뢰를 토대로 한 평화공동체 구축의 가능성을 보여준 사례로 볼 수 있다.

Effects of post-cold war peace in the former Yugoslavia

Effects of post-cold war peace in the former Yugoslavia

The “New” Normal: Instability Risk Assessment in an Uncertainty-Based Strategic Environment

‘’The post–Cold War peace dividend has been spent; the perception of the global strategic environment is one based in uncertainty with multiple, simultaneous, and diffuse threats wherein “crisis” is constant, conflict is pervasive, and instability is contagious. In such a dynamic, complex, and volatile environment, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive risk assessment mechanism to focus attention, funnel resources, and drive activities prior to acute instability. By leveraging existing academic and DoD forecasting models with diverging strengths and weaknesses, this framework will map the social and structural factors that shape the character of instability to depict states in which there is a volatile environment; identify the destabilizing conditions and existing friction points that are likely to drive the development of instability; and detect specific triggering events and tipping processes that could aggravate those conditions and ignite acute instability.

Religion as a Peacemaker? Peace Duration after Ethnic Civil Wars

AbstractWhat role does religion play in preventing civil war from recurring? Politicians have proposed that when warring groups share the same religion, achieving a durable peace will be easier. We test this hypothesis empirically using a large-n sample of all ethnic civil wars that began and ended between 1950 and 2006, and a measure of co-religiosity between the ethnic group in power and the main opposition group. The analysis shows that there is no positive relationship between co-religiosity and the duration of post-civil war peace, showing that sharing the same religion may not help to bring about peace following an ethnic civil war. To the contrary, the closer religious ties, the less likely it is that peace will last after the end of the conflict, and the higher the risk that conflict will recur.

State Capacity, Regime Type, and Sustaining the Peace after Civil War

ABSTRACTAbout half of the nations that experience civil war eventually relapse into renewed conflict within a few years after the original war ends. This observation has motivated a stream of research into the factors that affect the risk of peace failure in the aftermath of civil war. While the outcome of the previous civil war—for example, military victory versus peace agreement—structures the post-war environment in ways that affect the risk of peace failure, the capacity of the post-war state to enact and implement policies that affect the incentives for and capacity of groups to undertake armed violence as a means of advancing their interests should also affect the risks of peace failure. Using Geddes’ categories of nondemocratic regime types, we will present a theory of how different regime types have varying capacities to repress and/or implement accommodative policies that affect the risk of peace failure. We test propositions derived from this theory with a series of event history models. Our findings suggest that while peace agreements significantly increase the duration of post-civil war peace, peace agreements involving some types of nondemocratic regimes actually increase the risk of post-civil war peace failure.

Built-in Safeguards and the Implementation of Civil War Peace Accords

ABSTRACTThis article contributes to analyses of peace agreement implementation by focusing on the role of built-in safeguards as procedural mechanisms within peace agreements. Recent empirical studies suggest that negotiated peace agreements are a frequent mode of armed conflict termination and implementation of those agreements to be the primary predictor of enduring peace and the quality of that peace. However, in many instances implementation takes years or even decades and is subject to breakdown before achieving the key implementation objectives. In this article, we identify and theorize three key safeguards in peace accords: transitional power-sharing, dispute resolution, and verification mechanisms. We argue that these safeguards lead to higher implementation of provisions negotiated in peace agreements by addressing mutual suspicion and by facilitating more constructive working relationships among former rivals. To test our arguments, we analyze implementation of comprehensive peace agreements negotiated between 1989 and 2012 from the Peace Accords Matrix Implementation Data (PAM_ID). We find that the built-in safeguards that we have identified significantly explain variations in levels of peace agreement implementation.

A Study on the Thought and Behavior of “the Disapproval of the War for Peace” - With a Focus on KanzouUchimura and ShusuiKotoku -

A Study on the Thought and Behavior of “the Disapproval of the War for Peace” - With a Focus on KanzouUchimura and ShusuiKotoku -

Partnership for Peace or Preparations for War: Evolution of Russia-NATO Relations

Partnership for Peace or Preparations for War: Evolution of Russia-NATO Relations

Robert Gerwarth and John Horne, eds, War in Peace: Paramilitary Violence in Europe after the Great War; James Harris, ed., The Anatomy of Terror: Political Violence under Stalin

Robert Gerwarth and John Horne, eds, <i>War in Peace: Paramilitary Violence in Europe after the Great War</i>; James Harris, ed., <i>The Anatomy of Terror: Political Violence under Stalin</i>

The viability of civil war peace agreements

Civil war peace agreements are prone to collapse. While some research suggests that multiple layers of power-sharing provisions lead to more viable agreements, others have suggested that negotiated settlements are not only more likely to return to violence, but that those cases will be more deadly as a result. We suggest here that previous research has failed to address the various ways that peace agreements emerge and that this context is crucial in explaining peace agreement viability. In some situations, rebels are likely to earn those concessions through battlefield success. Governments may feel compelled to address underlying grievances in order to stop the bloodshed and ultimately maintain some political clout in the postwar regime. In other cases, however, governments may feel pressure to engage in discussions and to provide concessions by outside actors, whether in the form of diplomatic intervention, economic, or foreign military intervention. Hypotheses are tested on all civil war peace agreements identified by the UCDP Peace Agreement Data-set for 1975–2011. Findings from logit and hazard models suggest that agreements brought about in the aftermath of military intervention on behalf of rebels are more likely to endure while those earned on the battlefield (i.e., stronger rebels) do not. In addition, mediation enhances peace agreement viability, while interventions on behalf of governments tend to undermine it.

Does tourism illuminate the darkness of Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

Abstract Using Hiroshima and Nagasaki as case studies, this paper explores the extent to which sites of atomic bomb explosions have been memorialized and embedded in tourism promotion for educational purposes. Findings from interviews with government officers and discourse analysis of tourism brochures highlight the complexity of using former atomic bomb sites in the context of contemporary Japan. These findings reveal four themes aligned in two pairs: tourism–education and war–peace. These themes are intertwined with the historical context of the two cities. As a tourist destination, conservative Hiroshima centers on the remembrance of the atomic tragedy and the traditional or nostalgic aspects of Japanese culture, whereas relatively liberal Nagasaki presents itself as a melting pot of cultures. Both cities retain their central role of publicly commemorating the victims of the atomic bomb for the Japanese.

Mediation, Peacekeeping And Civil War Peace Agreements

The post-civil war agreement phase is vulnerable to credible commitment problems, a lack of government capacity to implement, and/or mutual vulnerability to retribution from violating the agreement. This study’s main contribution is to demonstrate the combined utility of mediation and UN peacekeeping. Mediation builds trust and confidence and works with the parties to design an efficacious agreement conducive to, among other features, tamping down post-agreement violence. Peacekeeping stems violence and facilitates the implementation of the agreement. Agreements that are mediated and followed by UN peacekeeping are expected to be more robust in terms of staving off violence. We report the effects of the mediation–peacekeeping interaction using a method correcting for a common misinterpretation of interaction terms. We test logit and hazard models using a sample of full and partial civil war peace agreements signed between 1975 and 2011. Controlling for agreement design, democracy, and income per capita, the results indicate mediation and its interaction with peacekeeping reduce the probability of renewed/continuing violence and have a positive impact on agreement duration. We also report brief case study evidence from the 1990s peace process in Guatemala.

A seat at the table is not enough: understanding women’s substantive representation in peace processes

While the international community stresses the importance of including women at the peace table so peace processes will better represent their needs and interests, it is unclear what specifically this inclusion entails. Do women need to be negotiators, mediators? Do peace agreements adequately represent women’s interests when women are included? This article engages UNSC Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security as a framework through which to assess peace processes and agreements. A woman-focused examination of all civil war peace processes reveals that less than 10% meet women’s inclusion as envisioned in UNSCR 1325. This article focuses on the three conditions accounting for women’s substantive representation in peacebuilding. What emerges are three joint necessities: an explicit women’s agenda; access to the peace process; and advocacy within the process. The final sections problematise how even in all of these positive cases women had to fight to participate.

Rebel-to-party transformations in civil war peace processes 1975–2011

ABSTRACT Previous research has established the critical relevance of better understanding the conditions that either facilitate or obstruct rebel-to-party transformations for the sake of strengthening the prospects for both peace and democracy in post-war societies. In this study, we contribute to this growing research agenda in two ways. We first present and analyse data collected by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) on all peace agreements that contain specific rebel-to-party provisions during the time period 1975–2011. Second, we introduce new data on rebel-to-party outcomes during the same time period. The descriptive findings confirm several of our theoretical expectations. Rebel-to-party provisions are exclusive to the post-Cold War era, and are commonly included in peace agreements with third-party presence. Somewhat surprisingly, we have seen almost twice as many agreements with such provisions in Africa compared to other regions, and only in peace agreements in governmental conflicts. However, we find several cases of rebel-to-party outcomes in territorial conflicts. Our data also confirm that rebel-to-party provisions are neither necessary nor sufficient for rebel-to-party outcomes, and highlight the potential relevance of other political provisions also supporting the group’s political integration.

Entrapment as a Threat to Community Peace in the Global War on Terror: An Analysis of Discourse in Local Press

Entrapment as a Threat to Community Peace in the Global War on Terror: An Analysis of Discourse in Local Press

The Intervention of “Neighbor” Countries in Civil War Peace Negotiations

This article examines the intervention behavior of small‐ or medium‐sized neighbor countries in civil war peace negotiations by examining Thailand in the Cambodian peace process and Chad in the negotiations over Darfur, Sudan. The motivations lying behind these neighbors’ initial interventions were their concerns over two issues: the spillover effect of the external conflicts and their limited leverage over the conflicts and peace processes. While both countries changed their intervention strategies, aiming to play more constructive roles, the consequences of the changed strategies were significantly limited by how their new diplomatic strategies were supported and utilized by external mediators.

War–peace journalism in the Turkish press: Countries come to the brink of war

The news coverage of the Turkish and Syrian jet planes that were hit by Turkey’s and Syria’s armies is being researched in Turkish newspapers. Stories about the Turkish jet that was hit by the Syrian army in June 2012 and the Syrian jet that was hit by Turkish army in March 2014 have been analysed as a peace journalism model. This study utilizes framing analysis to examine how Turkish newspapers covered two events (jet planes) and identify what frames ‘they’ tend to use. The general tendency of the Turkish press is towards accusation, blame and the creation of suspicion of the ‘other’ side. In this study, we find that the Turkish press is strongly affected by ownership structure, political pressure, regulations, mainstream news values and market conditions. All these factors determine journalists’ usage of dominant frames on their front pages in conflict situations.

Modernity as Perpetual War or Perpetual Peace: Further Reading

Modernity as Perpetual War or Perpetual Peace: Further Reading

Modernity as Perpetual War or Perpetual Peace?

Modernity as Perpetual War or Perpetual Peace?