Wage Indexation Research Articles

Analysis of the high order ADL(<i>p, q</i>) models used to describe connections between time series

In the paper the mathematical models describing connection between two time series are researched. At first each of them is investigated separately, and the ARIMA(p, d, q) model is constructed. These models are based on the time series characteristics obtained during the analysis stage. The connection between two time series is confirmed with the aid of cointegration statistical tests. Then the mathematical model of the connection between series is constructed. The ADL(p, q) model describes this dependence. It’s shown that for the time series under investigation the ordersp, qof the ADL(p, q) model are connected with the ARIMA(p, d, q) orders of the describing each series separately. This step makes the set of the investigated ADL(p, q) models much smaller. In the previous papers it was also shown that the ARIMA(p, d, q) automatical fitting functions in popular packages use limitations on thep,qorders of the time series process:q≤ 5,p≤ 5. The wish to use the simplest models is also built in the structure of the Akaike (AIC) and Bayes (BIC) informational criteria. In the paper the maximal values of the ADL(p, q) model orders are supposed to be the orders of the appropriate ARIMA(p, d, q) series. In the previous work it was shown that using high order ARIMA(p, d, q) it is possible to fit the models better. In this paper the experiments on the ADL(p, q) models construction are presented. The wage index and money income index time series pair is researched, and also the gas, water and energy production and consumption index/real agricultural production index pair is investigated. The data in the 2000–2018 time period is taken from the dynamic series of macroeconomic statistics of the Russian Federation.

Do financial incentives matter? Effects of Medicare price shocks on skilled nursing facility care.

Skilled nursing facility (SNF) spending has been one of the fastest growing categories of Medicare spending over the past few decades, and reductions in SNF payments are often recommended as part of Medicare cost containment efforts. Using a quasi-experiment resulting from a policy-driven and facility-specific Medicare payment change, we provide new evidence on how Medicare payment changes affect the amount of SNF care provided to Medicare patients. Specifically, we examine a one-time, plausibly exogenous change in the hospital wage index, an area-level adjustment to SNF payments that affected the majority of SNFs nationwide. Using a panel dataset of SNFs, we model the effects of these payment changes on more than 12,000 SNFs across the United States. We find that increases in Medicare payment rates to SNFs increased the total number of Medicare resident days at SNFs. Specifically, a 5% payment increase raised Medicare resident days by 2.33% at facilities with a 10% Medicare share relative to 0%. Further, the effects were asymmetric: Although Medicare payment increases affected Medicare days, payment decreases did not. Our results have important implications for policies that alter the Medicare base payment rates to SNFs and other health care providers.

Urban Population and Amenities: The Neoclassical Model of Location.

We develop a neoclassical general-equilibrium model to explain cross-metro variation in population and density. We provide new methods to estimate traded and non-traded productivities, and elasticities of housing and land supply, using density and land area data. From wage and housing cost indices, the model explains half of U.S. density and population variation and finds that quality of life determines location choices more than trade productivity; productivity and factor substitution in housing matter most, but are weak in nicer areas. Relaxing land use regulations would increase population in the West, raising both quality of life and productivity experienced by residents.

Economic Burden of Cytomegalovirus infection in CMV-Seropositive Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients Managed with Pre-Emptive Therapy: A Single Center Experience

<h3>Introduction</h3> <i>Cytomegalovirus</i> (CMV) infection is a common viral infection in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HCT) recipients, especially in the first 100 days post HCT. Preemptive therapy (PET) proved to be effective in managing CMV but led to prolonged antiviral use and associated toxicities. Limited data exist on the economic burden of PET use and cost of care among HCT recipients. <h3>Objectives</h3> We aimed to compare direct all-cause or CMV-related inpatient healthcare resource use and costs in those who received or did not receive PET through 180 days (D180) post HCT. <h3>Methods</h3> Study cohort comprised of adults, CMV R+ allogeneic HCT recipients of first peripheral blood or marrow allograft at a single center from 3/2013 to 12/2017. HCT recipients were routinely monitored for CMV using quantitative PCR assay and administered PET as per the standards of care. Data on clinical characteristics, CMV outcomes, PET administration, reasons and dates of hospitalizations were extracted from the electronic medical records. Inpatient hospital charges were obtained from the Vizient billing database from date of HCT to D180 post HCT. Charges data were converted to costs using cost-to-charge ratios, wage index and inflation rate to 2017 US Dollars. CMV-related readmissions were identified as readmissions for initiation of PET, work up or management of CMV End Organ Disease and any readmission where PET was initiated during D180 post HCT. <h3>Results</h3> Of 368 HCT recipients, 176 (48%) received unmodified graft from matched related or unrelated donors (low CMV risk); and 192 (52%) received either ex vivo T-cell depleted or conventional graft from mismatched donors (high CMV risk). Overall, 208 (57%) HCT recipients received PET; and 72% of them were high risk. PET recipients had longer length of stay for index admission (p=0.0001) and a greater proportion required readmission at D180 (p=0.00005) (Table 1); greater average inpatient costs for index admission ($184,230 vs. $150,938, p=0.0304) and for readmissions through D180 ($105,676 vs. $51,444, p=0.0032) (Table 1) as compared to those who did not receive PET. PET recipients also had higher costs for CMV-related readmissions per episode than non CMV-related readmissions ($167,701 vs. $96,941, p=0.0089) (Table 1). CMV-related readmissions comprised of 37% of total all-cause readmissions and incurred 49% of total all-cause readmission costs in PET recipients (Figure 2). <h3>Conclusion</h3> PET recipients had higher overall inpatient resource use and costs as compared to those who did not receive PET. CMV-related readmissions had disproportionate share of total inpatient readmissions costs in PET recipients. Future studies are needed to examine the cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for CMV management.

Dual Labor Market, Inflation, and Aggregate Demand in an Agent-Based Model of the Japanese Macroeconomy

This paper presents a stock-flow-consistent agent-based model calibrated on Japanese data. The goal is to investigate the effects on the joint dynamics aggregate demand and price of the use by Japanese firms of secondary employees (temporary, part-time, or agency). Empirical evidence point to financial distress and market uncertainty as factors affecting firms’ hiring decisions, but their connections with inflation and its sensitivity to employment and output are still under-investigated. In particular, the hiring of secondary workers with lower wages can result in sluggish inflation even during boom periods. The paper aims to provide three main contributions. The first is to identify and test a possible cause of deflation, which is related to firm-level financial distress and uncertain business environment. The study of firms’ hiring policies can also shed light on the modifications in the relationship between wage and employment dynamics testified by the flattening of the Phillips curve. The second contribution is the analysis of a range of possible countervailing policies, alternative or complementary to the conventional interest rate policy pursued by the monetary authority. Finally, the paper contributes to the recent developments in the estimation of agent-based models by presenting an original technique, which relies on the identification and optimization of meta-models. The numerical results of the model are quantitatively comparable to the main features of the Japanese economy in the last twenty years. The flattening of the Phillips curve appears to be mostly due to the use of secondary employment as a buffer to reduce financial distress in an uncertain business climate. In terms of policy indications, a strong indexation of minimum wage emerges as the most effective policy to increase inflation. The sensitivity analysis also sheds light on possible reasons why monetary policy may have uncertain effects on inflation.

Labour costs in the aerospace industry: LMDI decomposition of aerospace manufacturing payrolls

A novel approach to aggregated payroll data analysis using the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition is applied to the US Aerospace manufacturing industry during the period of 1998 to 2012, both in nominal and real terms. The period covered improves the understanding of how the aerospace manufacturing industry deals with severe economic blows in the area of the most important factor of production, namely labour. The decomposition was based on three factors: the wage effect, the size and the number effect. The results show that the wages are less influential than the restructuring processes when considering the aggregated payroll. Unlike what simple wage indices suggest, the wage effect in real terms contributed only to a moderate increase in payrolls by a factor of 1.15, which is about the same contribution resulting from the increasing number of firms in the industry. The cumulative size effect in the investigated period was about 0.647. The results show that the relatively stable real labour costs of the US aerospace industry were a consequence of the shrinking size of firms which compensated the growth of average wages

Evaluation of Social Security Level on the Labor Market of Ukraine and Directions of its Implementation

The need of ensuring of social security on the labor market of Ukraine in the context of principle of social equality is identified, the comprehensive rating assessment of key indicators of efficiency of the labor market in the regional dimension using the author’s approach is conducted in the article. In particular, among the main indicators of labor market efficiency were: indicators of the level of economic activity and employment of the population, the level of economic activity and employment of the working population, the level of unemployment, the average number of employees, the average wage, and the index of real wages. The main directions of crisis management on the labor market, taking into account the need to create an effective social security mechanism are substantiated in the results of research, including: ensuring of interaction of the labor market and the education services market by stimulating employers to cooperate with higher education institutions and forming a system of joint events with the aim of training highly qualified specialists and their further employment; introduction of the practice of financial encouragement of enterprises for the admission of young specialists – graduates of educational institutions (providing grants); tax benefits for youth employment enterprises; development of non-standard and innovative forms of employment (experience of Denmark and the Netherlands in combining labor market flexibility with non-standard forms of employment to address the unemployment problem); information assistance on setting up and running a business, training of internally displaced persons, retraining and professional development; raising social standards, reforming the pension system and improving the mechanism of social protection, especially for socially vulnerable groups; monitoring and control of poverty and income levels. It were determined that in order to improve the situation and neutralization of regional disparities, it is necessary to formulate an effective state policy, which will take into account not only the direct but also indirect factors of influence on the labor market, as well as provide an opportunity to improve the employment status and well-being of the population of Ukraine.. Keywords social security; labor market; social equality; employment; unemployment; economic activity of the population; rating.

Wages Indexation: Some Legal Problems of Implementation of Art. 134 of the Labour Code of the Russian Federation

The article analyzes the legal problems of implementation of Art. 134 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation in terms of imperative obligation of employers to adjust wages. On the basis of the interpretation of the provisions of the Labour Code, the analysis of the legal standings of the Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation, the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation, and other court decisions, the authors have determined the legal mechanisms that ensure, on the one hand, implementation of a socially necessary result for employees, and, on the other hand, does not violate the balance of rights and legally protected interests of employees and employers as a condition for harmonization of labor relationships. The article emphasizes that the employer should have legal mechanisms to protect his economic interests. However, consideration of such interests should not negate the statutory obligations of the employer that include the obligation to increase the real wage levels. The authors of the article focus on the problem of indexation of wages of employees of state bodies, bodies of local self-government, state and municipal institutions. The general conclusion is made about a declarative character of Art. 134 of the Labour Code of the Russian Federation, which does not allow establishing effective working mechanisms aimed to increase the level of employees' real wages.

Wage indexation and the monetary policy regime

We estimate a New Keynesian wage Phillips curve for a panel of 24 OECD countries and allow the degree of wage indexation to past inflation to vary according to structural characteristics. We find that the degree of wage indexation is significantly lower for countries with an inflation target. However, this effect vanishes when we control for the degree of goods market competition. By contrast, more goods market competition is consistently associated with lower wage indexation. This robust finding puts into question whether embedding a constant degree of wage indexation in standard DSGE models is truly structural.

Bill 33: The Minimum Wage Indexation Act (Employment Standards Code Amended)

Bill 33: The Minimum Wage Indexation Act (Employment Standards Code Amended)

Association Between Interhospital Competition and Hospital Resource Use for Cranial Neurosurgery: Analysis of 513 271 Admissions

Abstract INTRODUCTION Previous research has indicated that interhospital competition influences hospital resource utilization. However, the impact of competition on neurosurgical expenditures has not been characterized. METHODS We identified all admissions for cranial neurosurgery in the National Inpatient Sample database from 2006 to 2009 using corresponding DRG codes. The 2 chosen years contain data on the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), a validated measure of hospital market competition ranging from 0 (significant competition) to 1 (monopolization). We converted hospital charges to costs using hospital-specific all-payer inpatient cost-to-charge ratios from supplementary files analyzing hospital accounting reports. We assessed how HHI was associated with neurosurgical charges and costs using multivariate linear regression to adjust for 15 confounding variables: patient demographics (age, sex, race, insurance, and household income), severity measures (severity of illness and risk of mortality scores, number of procedures, and comorbidities), hospital characteristics (bedsize, location/teaching status, ownership, region, and area wage index), and length of stay. RESULTS There were 513 271 neurosurgical admissions in 2006 and 2009. The median HHI for hospitals was 0.275 (range = 0.099-0.724). Average inflation-adjusted neurosurgical charges ($62, 098-$77, 812, P &lt; .001) and costs ($21, 385-$22, 389, P &lt; .001) both rose from 2006 to 2009. Increased interhospital competition was associated with greater neurosurgical charges (+ $3,283 for −0.10 HHI, P = .04). Patients in more competitive hospital markets incurred higher charges for cerebrovascular (+ $2,916 for −0.10 HHI, P = .02), ventriculostomy (+ $5,272 for -0.10 HHI, P = .03), and functional operations (+ $9,871 for −0.10 HHI, P = .04) specifically, but not tumor or neurotrauma surgery (both P &gt; .05). However, interhospital competition was not significantly associated with neurosurgical costs. CONCLUSION Greater interhospital competition was associated with elevated charges for neurosurgery, but not costs. These disparate findings may be due to economic factors reflected only in charges like marketing expenses, unpaid patient bills, and institutional reimbursement rates. Amidst ongoing practice consolidation and reimbursement reform, future research should characterize the mechanisms by which competition may affect neurosurgical expenditures.

THE U.S. LABOR INCOME SHARE AND AUTOMATION SHOCKS

The causes and consequences of the 1964–2016 swings in the U.S. labor income share/labor share (LS) are parsed through the lens of a structural model estimated on aggregate and LS series jointly. Where conventional models fall short, the present model yields a counter‐cyclical LS unconditionally and in response to demand and monetary policy shocks, as well as a small wage pro‐cyclicality, via moderate wage indexation. Shifts in automation, workers' market power, investment efficiency, and the relative price of investment account for 54%, 24%, 6%, and 4% of LS fluctuations, respectively. Automation shocks explain the lion's share of the post‐2007 cyclical LS tumble and 11% of output cycles, and generate a distinctive counter‐cyclical labor response. (JEL E32, E25, E52)

Wage Compression within the Firm: Evidence from an Indexation Scheme

Abstract We revisit the role of labour market institutions by showing how they affect the sharing of firm-specific rents between employers and employees. We look at an Italian wage indexation mechanism (‘Scala Mobile’) that compressed the distribution of wages, imposing real wage increases at the bottom of the distribution. After developing a simplified version of a search model with intra-firm bargaining and on-the-job search, we document that skilled workers received lower wage adjustments when employed at firms with many unskilled workers and they tended to move towards more skill-intensive firms. Moreover, the system drove the least skill-intensive firms out of the market.

Have Hospice Costs Increased After Implementation of the Hospice Quality–Reporting Program?

ContextThe Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hospice Quality–Reporting Program introduced the requirement that hospices nationwide begin collecting and submitting standardized patient-level quality data on July 1, 2014. ObjectivesThis study examined whether this requirement has increased hospice total costs, general costs, and visiting services costs. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study using data from the 2012 and 2014 Medicare hospice cost reports linked to hospice claims. We measured total costs per patient day (PPD), general costs PPD, and visiting services costs PPD for freestanding hospices. We estimated the incremental costs of operating in 2014 vs. 2012 using hierarchical random effects models and adjusting for year, wage index, care volume, case-mix, and hospice and market characteristics, stratified by hospice ownership type. ResultsBoth for-profit and nonprofit hospices reported higher total costs PPD and general services costs PPD in 2014 than 2012. Nonprofit hospices also reported higher general costs PPD in 2014 than 2012. In adjusted models, the total costs PPD in 2014 were $10.55 higher than in 2012 for nonprofit hospices and $6.43 higher for for-profit hospices. The increase in general costs PPD and visiting services costs PPD ranged from $3.15 to $5.87 by ownership and type of costs. Both for-profit and nonprofit hospices showed lower costs PPD for all types associated with more patients and longer length of stay. ConclusionHospice costs increased after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hospice Quality–Reporting Program quality data collection/submission requirement. Complementary studies need to understand whether increased costs brought additional benefits.

WELFARE COSTS OF SHIFTING TREND INFLATION: STAGGERED WAGE AND PRICE CONTRACTS

ABSTRACTWe develop a New Keynesian model featuring staggered price and wage contracts to study welfare costs of exogenous variations in trend inflation. The analyses show that the consequences of constant positive trend inflation and shifting trend inflation are severe, especially when trend inflation is high. Among two channels, staggered wage contracts play a vital role in transmitting adverse impacts of constant and shifting trend inflation into the economy. Without the staggered wage channel, these costs are modest. We also conduct exercises to examine the sensitivity of welfare costs to a wide range of plausible parameters. The results show that if the price and wage friction are sufficiently large, the price and wage indexation level are sufficiently small, or there is upward biased trend inflation process, the welfare costs become larger.

An Examination of Downstream Effects of Bereavement on Healthcare Utilization for Surviving Spouses in a National Sample of Older Adults.

While bereavement is associated with increased mortality, it is unclear how bereaved families utilize the healthcare system after the death of their loved ones. The aim of this study was to examine the association between bereavement and healthcare expenditures for surviving spouses. We used data from the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative cohort study of older adults linked to Medicare claims. We determined a spouse's total Medicare expenditures 2years before and after their partner's death across six biennial interview waves. Using coarsened exact matching, we created a comparison group of non-bereaved dyads. Costs were wage index- and inflation-adjusted to 2017 dollars. We used generalized linear models and difference-in-differences (DID) analysis to calculate the average marginal effects of bereavement on Medicare spending by gender. We also examined subgroup differences based on caregiver status, cause of death, and length of terminal illness. Our sample consisted of 941 bereaved dyads and a comparison group of 8899 matched dyads. Surviving female spouses (68% of the sample) had a $3500 increase in spending 2years after death (p < 0.05). Using DID analyses, bereavement was associated with a $625 quarterly increase in Medicare expenditures over 2years for women. There was no significant increase in post-death spending for male bereaved surviving spouses. Results were consistent for spouses who survived at least 2years after the death of their spouse (70% of the sample) CONCLUSIONS: Bereavement is associated with increased healthcare spending for women regardless of their caregiving status, the cause of death, or length of terminal illness. Further study is required to examine why men and women have different patterns of healthcare spending relative to the death of their spouses.

Public-Use vs. Restricted-Use: An Analysis Using the American Community Survey

Statistical agencies frequently publish microdata that have been altered to protect condentiality. Such data retain utility for many types of broad analyses but can yield biased or insufficiently precise results in others. Research access to de-identied versions of the restricted-use data with little or no alteration is often possible, albeit costly and time-consuming. We investigate the advantages and disadvantages of public-use and restricted-use data from the American Community Survey (ACS) in constructing a wage index. The public-use data used were Public Use Microdata Samples, while the restricted-use data were accessed via a Federal Statistical Research Data Center. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each data source and compare estimated CWIs and standard errors at the state and labor market levels. We find the results from the publicly available data are generally good relative to the restricted-use data, with greater similarity for larger areas and less similarity for smaller areas. Standard errors are higher in the public-used data but may still be underestimated.

Modeling the Ukrainian consumption

Consumption is a fundamental determinant of the economic success. Consumer spending is approximately 70 percent of the Gross domestic product (GDP). It is common to divide consumer spending into nondurables (clothing and food), durables (“large” goods, which are not purchased very often), and of course services (day care, banking, medical). The way to identify how the economy influences consumption is to look at specific economic cycles. At the top of the economy (when the economy is strong), people reaction is physically powerful, and consumers spend money freely. When the economy falters, confidence falls; consumers cut back on the spending and conserve their money. They stop buying, getting out of debt and focus on saving money. Understanding consumption is vital to the implementation and development of marketing strategies. The purpose for this empirical research is to review main indicators, which influence on consumption and identify methodological issues in need of resolution, and present possible approaches that may prove helpful in resolving those issues. The growth of interest in modeling consumption has led to behaviorally conceptual models in which selection dynamics play a vital role. The authors introduce two empirical models, which demonstrate correlation between macroeconomic indicators, social factors and Consumer price index (CPI). The first conceptual model shows that the CPI is a straighter measure than per capita Gross domestic product of the standard of living in Ukraine. By including a wide range of thousands of services and goods with the basket (fixed), the CPI can obtain a precise estimate of the cost of living. The second empirical model shows the interdependence of economic indicators (CPI, GDP, and Average wage index (AWI)) and social factors (gender, age, location).

Productivity Loss Among Parent Caregivers Is Associated with Poor Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQL) at the Intial Diagnosis of Pediatric Advanced Stage Hodgkin Lymphoma (HL)

▪Background: Financial hardship is the combined effect of medical expenditures, out of pocket expenses, and the impact of a cancer diagnosis and treatment on work. Productivity loss is a measure of work engagement, specifically missed time and/or altered performance, experienced by parent caregivers of children with cancer in the form of missed time from work and/or altered performance at work. Health-related quality of life (HRQL) is an important indicator of the disease process and its functional consequences among children at the time of initial diagnosis with cancer. The association of parental productivity loss with the child's HRQL is unknown.Methods: Two hundred ninety-one parent caregivers of children and adolescents, ages 5-17.9 years with newly diagnosed advanced stage Hodgkin Lymphoma (HL) were invited to participate in a study to assess costs of care as part of a larger Children's Oncology Group Phase III trial. Consenting parents completed the Caregiver Work Limitations Questionnaire (CG WLQ) and the Child Health Ratings Inventories (CHRIs)-Global Health measure prior to start of therapy. The CG WLQ is a validated 23-item measure, which quantifies the percent of time respondents had difficulty performing four key dimensions of work because of caregiving: physical tasks, mental-interpersonal tasks, output tasks, and time management. Mean scale scores (SD), ranging from 0-100, indicate the percentage of time the respondent reported work limitations by dimension in the month prior to diagnosis. The estimated productivity loss score, expressed as a percentage of time, is calculated from the weighted sum of the four scale scores, using an established algorithm validated in the generic WLQ. This is then monetized by multiplying the productivity loss score by the national average wage index of $50,000. The 10-item CHRIs-Global is a parent-proxy report of child HRQL and yields scores that range from 0-100, with higher scores indicating better HRQL. To describe how CG WLQ varied by child global HRQL, CG WLQ scores were reported separately for the lowest quartile of HRQL scores (Q1) and quartiles 2-4 combined (Q2-4). Mean (SD) productivity loss scores were compared using the two-sample t-test.Results: Two hundred eighty-two parents of trial participants (282/291, 97%) completed any baseline measures. Of the 242 parents who initiated the CG WLQ, 159 (66%) reported working at a paying job and were eligible to complete the remainder of the measure. The average age (SD) of caregiver respondents was 43.8 (6.9) years with 75.3% female, 74.7% White and 63.7% with at least some college education. The average age of the child with HL was 15 (2.8) years and 55% were male. The mean HRQL score was 65.2 (21.9). On average CG WLQ scores indicated that the caregiving role resulted in disrupted work tasks at least 31.4% (27.6) of the time (Table). The average percent of time that caregiving disrupted mental-interpersonal tasks, output tasks, and time management was higher in working caregivers of children with HRQL scores in the lowest quartile compared to higher quartiles. The productivity loss score was higher for caregivers whose children had lower HRQL, resulting in larger annual productivity costs.Conclusions: Family caregivers of child and adolescent HL patients are vulnerable to productivity loss, which is costly to the families, employers and the nation. High productivity losses noted at initial diagnosis indicate that financial hardship begins prior to the start of cancer treatment. Provider understanding of the association of the child's HRQL on the caregiver's work will inform strategies to maximize adherence to intensive chemotherapy and improve patients' HRQL. DisclosuresParsons:Seattle Genetics: Research Funding. Henderson:Seattle Genetics: Research Funding.

Real Wages in Germany during the First Phase of Industrialization, 1850-1889

Abstract The study constructs new wage series at the branch level and aggregates them to an index of nominal wages in industry and urban trades in 18481889. Moreover, the study develops new food price and rent indices. These are then combined with price indices for other categories of household expenditure from Hoffmann (1965) into a consumer price index for 1850-1889. The new real wage index shows little growth for the third quarter of the nineteenth century; the first phase of rapid industrialization from the 1840s to the early 1870s had only a small positive impact on the living standard of the industrial and urban lower classes. Only from the 1880s, when Germany moved into a second phase of industrialization, did the real wage experience a sustained and rapid increase. Nevertheless, the diversification of employment opportunities taking place in the wake of industrialization and the European grain invasion were accompanied by a marked reduction of income volatility among lower-class households already from the 1870s.