Vulnerable Coastal Areas Research Articles

Risks for the Population along the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast from Flooding Caused by Extreme Rise of Sea Level

The geographical status of coastal zone as a boundary between sea and land makes it especially attractive, both for settlement and the implementation of various human activities. This in turn leads to accelerated urbanization of coastal areas. Generally, coastal areas cover only a fraction of the surface of the Earth, but they concentrate around 60 % of the world’s population. Bulgarian Black Sea coast is also no exception to this trend. According to data from the last national census, Black Sea municipalities comprise 5.21 % of the country’s territory and 8.85 % of the population. At the same time, as a consequence of global climate change and the trend towards increasing sea levels, natural risks of extreme weather events are becoming more important and more dangerous. This study assesses the risks of rising sea level for the population defined in different scenarios of increase in the level. It uses official data on the population in coastal towns and topographic maps to determine low-laying coastal areas. Analysis was conducted using a GIS ArcInfo 9.1. The most vulnerable coastal areas are identified and assessed on preliminary given scenarios of sea level rise from 1 to 5 meters. As a case study, the risk for the coastal population of the biggest Bulgarian Black Sea resort Sunny Beach is analysed in detail. Applying 3D GIS modeling, visualisation and accurate assessment of flooded coastal areas are performed, and numbers of population potentially endangered in case of different scenarios of sea level rise are estimated. The obtained results have significant practical importance and could serve as a primary base in coastal decision-making, for the needs of civil protection authorities and other prevention/mitigation measures in hazard prone coastal zones.

Modeling the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami: Case study of impact in Thailand

The devastating 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami stressed the need for assessing tsunami hazard in vulnerable coastal areas. Numerical modeling is but one important tool for understanding past tsunami events and simulating future ones. Here we present a robust simulation of the event, which explains the large runups and destruction observed in coastal Thailand and identifies areas vulnerable to future tsunamis, or safer for reconstruction. To do so, we use an accurate tsunami source, which was iteratively calibrated in earlier work to explain the large‐scale tsunami features, and apply it over a computational domain with a finer grid and more accurate coastal bathymetry in Thailand. Computations are performed with a well‐validated numerical model based on fully nonlinear and dispersive Boussinesq equations (FUNWAVE) that adequately models the physics of tsunami propagation and runup, including dissipation caused by bottom friction and wave breaking. Simulated runups in Thailand reproduce field observations with a surprising degree of accuracy, as well as their high degree of along‐coast variation: a 92% correlation is found between (58) runup observations and computations, while the model explains 85% of the observed variance; overall, the RMS error is approximately 1 m or 17% of the mean observed runup value (skill of the simulation). Because we did not use runup observations to calibrate our coseismic tsunami source, these results are robust, and thus provide a uniquely accurate synoptic prediction of tsunami impact along the Andaman coast of Thailand, including those areas where no observations were made.

Expansion of U.S. coastal barriers system receives support

The extent of lands included in the U.S. Coastal Barriers Resources System should be expanded in order to protect more people, property, and natural resources in vulnerable coastal areas, according to several witnesses at an 8 November U.S. congressional hearing.However, the witnesses disagreed as to whether sections of Louisiana should be included in that expansion. Louisiana received attention at the hearing due to the extent of damage caused by recent hurricanes; the U.S. Geological Survey has estimated that 100 square miles of Louisiana marsh became open water during the storms.

Predicted climate change, sea-level rise and wetland management in the Australian wet-dry tropics

The vulnerability of coastal areas in the Alligator Rivers Region (northern Australia) to predicted climate change and potential sea level rise was assessed as part of a national study. The coastal area is composed of a number of estuarine and freshwater habitats that are intricately interlinked and can not be effectively managed in isolation of each other. The outcomes of the assessment focused on the floodplain environments of the region, but are also applicable to the broader wetland environments that occur across the northern Australian wet-dry tropics. The management regime in the region is based on traditional Aboriginal ownership of much of the land, which is leased to the federal government as a national park. Scientific research has been intensive; however, important questions have been raised about the collation and effective use of this information. The vulnerability assessment framework required effective use of this information and cooperation with the management authority to identify change scenarios and management and research responses. A climate change scenario was established as the basis for predicting biophysical change in the coastal and wetland environments. The predictions suggest that large-scale change will occur and many of the existing values derived from these areas (i.e., usage by traditional Aboriginal occupants, and nature conservation) could be degraded or even lost. Recommended management responses include the initiation of specific monitoring, empowerment of local bodies to take active management steps, and to increase awareness of the likely consequences of change. Further data coordination and review are needed to ascertain the validity of the predictions and the concomitant management responses.

Vulnerable coastal and marine areas: A framework for the planning of environmental security zones in the ocean

Abstract The growing diversity of threats to the ocean environment keeps ocean management (or “governance”) on the agenda of environmental diplomacy. Between 1968 and 1973 the UNCLOS III framework was developed in such a way as to permit, or even facilitate the zoning of vulnerable coastal and marine areas for at least eight different kinds of designated areas, through a combination of regimes and zones. A more holistic, ecological approach to ocean management has been advocated since the end of UNCLOS III, and received the imprimatur of world community approval through the adoption of Agenda 21 at the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). Five additional kinds of environmental zoning in the ocean are suggested by the ecological perspective adopted at UNCED. It is recommended that the major post‐Rio purpose should be to convert the language of global environmental ethics into more specifically operational ideas that can be implemented at national and regional levels.