Vulnerability Index Method Research Articles

Neighborhood Social Vulnerability and Premature Cardiovascular Disease in Haiti

Higher social vulnerability is associated with premature cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality but is understudied in low-income countries that have both the highest magnitude of social vulnerability and a growing CVD epidemic. To evaluate the association between social vulnerability and hypertension, CVD, and CVD subtypes in Haiti as a model for similar low-income countries. This population-based cohort study used enrollment data from adults participating in the Haiti Cardiovascular Disease Cohort Study. Recruitment occurred via multistage random sampling throughout slum and urban neighborhoods in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, from March 2019 to August 2021. Data were analyzed from May 2022 to December 2023. A modified Haitian Social Vulnerability Index (SVI-H) was created following the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Social Vulnerability Index method. Twelve variables across the domains of socioeconomic status, household characteristics, and social and community context were included. The SVI-H was calculated for each study neighborhood block and then stratified into SVI-H quartiles (quartile 1 was the least vulnerable; quartile 4, the most vulnerable). Prevalent hypertension and total CVD, defined as heart failure (HF), stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), angina, or myocardial infarction (MI). Age-adjusted Poisson regression analysis yielded prevalence ratios (PRs) comparing the prevalence of hypertension, total CVD, and CVD subtypes across SVI-H quartiles. Among 2925 adults (1704 [58.3%] female; mean [SD] age, 41.9 [15.9] years), the prevalence of hypertension was 32.8% (95% CI, 31.1%-34.5%) and the prevalence of CVD was 14.7% (95% CI, 13.5%-16.0%). Hypertension prevalence ranged from 26.2% (95% CI, 23.1%-29.3%) to 38.4% (95% CI, 34.8%-42.0%) between quartiles 1 and 4, while CVD prevalence ranged from 11.1% (95% CI, 8.8%-13.3%) to 19.7% (95% CI, 16.8%-22.6%). SVI-H quartile 4 vs 1 was associated with a greater prevalence of hypertension (PR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.02-1.34) and CVD (PR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.16-1.89). Among CVD subtypes, SVI-H was significantly associated with HF (PR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.23-2.18) but not with combined stroke and TIA or combined angina and MI. In urban Haiti, individuals living in neighborhoods with the highest social vulnerability had greater prevalence of hypertension and HF. Understanding CVD disparities in low-income countries is essential for targeting prevention and treatment interventions toward populations at highest risk globally.

A comprehensive approach to assess the seismic vulnerability of archaeological sites: the Wupatki Pueblo in Arizona

The proposed research work presents a comprehensive approach to assessing the seismic vulnerability of archaeological sites. This approach aims to be a quick and easy-to-use investigation procedure that enables accurate and large-scale evaluations. While the methods employed are well-established in the literature and have been widely applied to buildings, this study contributes by proposing a structured framework that integrates different assessment procedures at different levels of analysis, specifically tailored to archaeological sites. The analysis is divided into three stages within the conceptual framework: (i) the application of the Masonry Quality Index; (ii) seismic vulnerability assessment and prediction of expected damage; and (iii) analysis of individual walls’ structural response through strength domain, capacity and fragility curves. Specifically, the study explores and adapts four Vulnerability Index methods, i.e. GNDT, Formisano, Vicente and Ferreira methods, to suit the specific characteristics of archaeological sites. To this end, a simplified procedure is proposed to estimate the conventional strength in the methods’ forms. The comparison of the index-based methods is then crucial for critically evaluating the reliability of vulnerability estimations. The paper illustrates the application of this framework through a detailed case study, i.e. the archaeological site of Wupatki Pueblo in Arizona (US), demonstrating its effectiveness in evaluating the seismic risk and defining the vulnerability distribution of the site. Consequently, this approach facilitates the identification of the most sensitive areas, which necessitate further investigation, providing useful outcomes for the decision-making process concerning the conservation and protection of archaeological sites.

Evaluating Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Southeastern Türkiye Coastline: a Coastal Vulnerability Perspective

Coastal areas are inherently sensitive and dynamic, susceptible to natural forces like waves, winds, currents, and tides. Human activities further accelerate coastal changes, while climate change and global sea level rise add to the challenges. Recognizing and safeguarding these coasts, vital for both socioeconomic and environmental reasons, becomes imperative. The objective of this study is to categorize the coasts of the Mersin and İskenderun bays along the southeastern coast of Türkiye based on their vulnerability to natural forces and human-induced factors using the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) method. The study area encompasses approximately 520 km of coastline. The coastal vulnerability analysis reveals that the coastal zone comprises various levels of vulnerability along the total coastline: 24.7% (128 km) is categorized as very high vulnerability, 27.4% (142 km) as high vulnerability, 23.7% (123 km) as moderate vulnerability, and 24.3% (126 km) as low vulnerability. Key parameters influencing vulnerability include coastal slope, land use, and population density. High and very high vulnerability are particularly prominent in coastal plains characterized by gentle slopes, weak geological and geomorphological features, and significant socioeconomic value.

GIS-based water inrush risk evaluation of the 10th coal seam floor in Zhuxianzhuang Coal Mine, northern Anhui Province, China

ABSTRACT The problem of limestone karst water inrush from coal seam floors is becoming more and more prominent, and gradually becoming the focus of water control work in coal mines. Taking the floor of the 10th coal seam in the third mining area of Zhuxianzhuang Coal Mine as the research object, seven indicators were identified as the main controlling factors in three features – aquifer, water barrier, and geological structure. Subjective and objective weights were determined by the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weighting method, and vulnerability zoning evaluation was carried out based on the geographic information system using the vulnerability index method. The study area was classified into five zones based on the graded thresholds calculated by statistical analysis. The study shows that the area of Taiyuan Formation limestone karst water outburst gradually transitions from the safe zone to the vulnerable zone from the north to the east. This study has a certain guiding effect on the water inrush of Taiyuan Formation limestone karst from the floor of the 10th coal seam in the study area.

Assessing fragility functions of unreinforced masonry buildings

The seismic vulnerability entrenched within the historical urban landscapes of Algeria serves as a poignant reminder of the pressing need for comprehensive risk management strategies, particularly concerning low and medium height unreinforced masonry (URM) structures. These architectural gems, rich in cultural significance, stand as tangible embodiments of Algeria's storied past. However, their susceptibility to seismic disturbances presents an immediate threat, demanding meticulous attention and innovative methodologies for effective risk assessment and mitigation. In a pioneering scholarly pursuit, this research embarks on an ambitious exploration, melding fragility functions and a sophisticated vulnerability index method to unravel the intricate tapestry of seismic risk assessment. Through the lens of fragility functions, the study delves into a nuanced analysis, probabilistically delineating the vulnerabilities entrenched within the complex framework of URM buildings. Furthermore, the meticulous derivation of vulnerability functions via the vulnerability index method enhances the granularity of risk assessment, providing a multifaceted perspective to discern vulnerabilities accurately. Central to this investigation is the Belouizdad district, a microcosm of historical significance nestled within the vibrant metropolis of Algiers. By scrutinizing seismic scenarios spanning a spectrum of intensities (ranging from VII to X), the study orchestrates a symphony of empirical data and analytical prowess, unraveling the potential seismic reverberations poised to impact the district's architectural heritage. In essence, this scholarly endeavor transcends the confines of mere academic pursuit, serving as a guiding light illuminating the path towards tailored seismic reduction policies. It stands as a clarion call to safeguard Algeria's architectural patrimony, fostering resilience amidst the tremors of uncertainty and ensuring the preservation of its cultural legacy for generations to come.

Measuring vulnerability to assess households resilience to flood risks in Karonga district, Malawi

AbstractMany parts of Malawi are prone to natural hazards with varying degrees of risk and vulnerability. This study aimed at obtaining baseline data for quantifying vulnerability of the households to flood risks in Karonga District in northern Malawi, specifically in Group Village Headman Matani Mwakasangila of Traditional Authority Kilupula. The study used cross-sectional survey, and data were collected using a structured questionnaire. This study applied Flood Vulnerability Index and statistical methods to quantify and analyse vulnerability of households in the aspects of exposure, susceptibility and resilience characteristics. Proportional Odds Model also known as Ordered Logistic Regression was used to identify factors that determine vulnerability of households to flood risks. The results show that households headed by females and elders of age (at least 61 years) were the most vulnerable to floods because of their limited social and livelihood capacities, resulting from being uneconomically active group. Households with houses built of mud, thatched and very old with no protective account for high vulnerability due to the fact that most of them are constructed using substandard materials. The level of vulnerability was increasing with an increase in the number of households exposed and susceptible to floods. With an increase in resilience to floods, vulnerability level was decreasing. The results further revealed a predictive margins of vulnerability levels which were not significantly different among the villages. However, villages with more exposed, susceptible and not resilience households were most vulnerable to floods. This study recommends that vulnerability assessment should be included in Disaster Risk Reduction planning and implementation in order to make DRR more efficient and realistic. This would further strengthen the disaster risk management to be more proactive as well as increase resilience of households to flood risks.

An application of adjusted livelihood vulnerability index to assess vulnerability to climate change in the char areas of Assam, India

In this paper, socio-ethnographic and Livelihood Vulnerability Index methods have been used as qualitative and quantitative methods respectively to measure vulnerability due to climate change. Three hundred and ninety four (394) numbers of households of Char inhabitants across the Brahmaputra Basin of Assam, India were interviewed during the period of May 2022 to September 2022. Access to food and housing were found to be the main drivers of vulnerability in almost all the Char areas. The study reveals that though ethnically a section of people is seen to be resilient in terms of flood; different geographical factors overpower such advantage, increasing the vulnerability of those households. Different factors affected the vulnerability status of the Char dwellers differently across the different locations. Additionally, apart from the different factors of vulnerability considered in the model used, the study also revealed that flood, erosion and geographical character of Char areas contributed to the creation of the differences in the degree of vulnerability. The results revealed that there is a need for different treatment for vulnerability reduction for Char dwellers in different locations and for which, the sub-indicators of vulnerability used in the study are needed to be studied carefully. Suggestions were also made on the scope for further study on this aspect.

Household-level demographic and socio-economic vulnerability in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic in rural Central Vietnam

This study adopted the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) method using household-level demographic and socio-economic data to measure the vulnerability of rural households in Central Vietnam to the COVID-19 pandemic. It found that most households suffered from a partial or total loss of employment and a remarkable decrease in household income during the challenging time of the COVID-19 spread. The index scores demonstrated which characteristics and which components were more or less responsible for household-level vulnerability. The findings of the study found that low educational attainment of household heads, low engagement in stable jobs and limited access to the support from local government, grassroots organizations and groups were among the most constructing the vulnerability of the surveyed households to the pandemic.The study suggests that any response and adaptation strategies in short-term or long-term should firstly and ultimately pay special attention to building and enhancing household-level capacities and strengthening local governance so that the households and communities can be more resilient to any disastrous events in the future. It also agreed that the SoVI would be a viable technique in measuring place-based vulnerability and providing empirical evidence for more appropriate responses and prevention measures to crisis and pandemic like COVID-19.

The mapping of the vulnerability coastal area in Pangandaran District by the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) approach

The phenomenon of sea level rise (SLR) in Pangandaran Regency threatens the continuity of human activities such as tourism, fisheries and trade that gives value to coastal regions. The southern coast of Java directly faces the Indian Ocean and sea levels are expected to rise by 2 – 4 mm/year, leaving the Pangandaran Regency relatively vulnerable to SLR. Coastal vulnerability can be mapped using the Coastal Vulnerability Index method to determine levels of vulnerability based on six parameters which are geomorphology, elevation, tidal range, significant wave height (SWH), shoreline change and rate of SLR. The results show that the geomorphology of Pangandaran Regency is considered to be very vulnerable (Score 5) due to the number of sandy beaches present. Elevation is dominated by the vulnerable category (Score 4). Tidal range of the coastal region is considered moderately vulnerable (Score 3). SWH of the coastal region is very vulnerable (Score 5). Shoreline change is considered to be moderately vulnerable (Score 3) with overall erosion in the region. Rate of SLR is considered to be very vulnerable (Score 5). The coastal region Pangandaran Regency is leaning towards being vulnerable against sea level rise.

Livelihoods under pressure: insights from riverine community in Bangladesh

ABSTRACT Rivers in the Bengal Delta are highly dynamic and characterized by bank erosion and channel shifting. Recurring erosion displaces nearby communities and climate change related impacts multiply the vulnerability of the displaced people. This study aims to evaluate the livelihood vulnerability of riparian communities with their spatial distribution of Bangladesh. It also investigates the socio-demographic characteristics of the vulnerable community and assesses their resilience capacity. A mixed-method research design has been applied that includes surveys and group discussions. The 150-household survey was conducted purposively from five administrative units of the Shariatpur district along the Padma River. Two vulnerability index methods, considering three major factors – households’ exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity – are adopted to evaluate and compare the vulnerability of these five units. Seven components (comprising twenty-five sub-components) are adopted to index these three factors. Three of the five administrative units are identified as highly vulnerable with index values of 0.494, 0.478 and 0.438. Low adaptive capacity and resilience are attributed to financial insolvency, weak social capital, not owning land, poor access to education, and the absence of social safety-net programs. High sensitivity is determined by food insecurity, the number of vulnerable groups, a high dependency ratio, little access to safe drinking water, limited healthcare facilities, unhygienic sanitation, and so forth. High exposure is delineated by the degree of erosion vulnerability, displacement, and loss of property and livelihood. The indexing of livelihood vulnerability suggests that the approach and its possesses have replicability in locations with similar vulnerabilities and impacts.

Characteristics and evaluation of coastal erosion vulnerability of typical coast on Hainan Island

Coastal erosion vulnerability assessment is widely used to assess the loss degree of coastal zone caused by erosion, and plays an important role in coastal natural resources protection, planning, management and decision-making. Based on the natural and social characteristics of the east coast of Qiongdong and the coastal erosion vulnerability index (CVI) method, this study selected 8 assessment indicators, such as shoreline change rate (U1). The Delphi method and the entropy weight method were used to calculate the comprehensive index weight, combined with CVI method and geographic information system (GIS) technology, to quantitatively evaluate the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of typical coastal erosion vulnerability such as coral reefs in the east of Hainan Island. The study area was divided into 5 grades: very low (31%), low (10%), moderate (28%), high (24%) and high vulnerability (7%), and the overall performance was moderate erosion vulnerability. The research showed that the interannual downward rate erosion of beach (U3) and the rate of change of the isobath (U2) of the beach were the main controlling factors affecting the vulnerability of coastal erosion in the study area, and the coastal dynamic factor had a greater impact than the other two factors. As a natural barrier, the coral reefs in the study area had good wave absorption and energy reduction, and the coral reef coasts showed low coastal erosion vulnerability, due to the complex hydrodynamic characteristics, estuary coasts is the most vulnerable areas. The verification results of the ROC-AUC method showed that the accuracy of erosion vulnerability was 68.9%, which provided an important reference for the ecological restoration of tropical coral reef biological coasts and the development and management of the Hainan Qiongdong coastal zone.

Coastal Vulnerability at West Pasaman Regency

West Pasaman has rich coastal potency. Marine resources and coastal tourism become income source for this regency. Besides the potency, West Pasaman Coast also vulnerable because it lays on tectonic path subduction and bordered with Hindia Ocean that triger abration, earthquake and tsunamis. The combinations of high abration and flat coast with mud and sand make the West Pasaman Coast very vulnerable. Extreme weather and dense population with convensional living in the coastal area create the complexity of coastal problems. Early, The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) is a method to analyze coastal vulnerability based on certain factors i.e ocean hydrodinamics and coastal morphology. But nowadays, to minimize the risk of natural disasters, the CVI has been modified with additional factors. This research aims to analyze the coast vulnerability of West Pasaman Coast using Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) method based on GIS. The study use primary and secondary data. The field survey was conducted on April 2019 with purposive sampling method at 6 districts and 10 sites as the observation points. Those districts are Sungai Beremas, Koto Balingka, Sungai Aur, Sasak Ranah Pasisir, Luhak Nan Duo and Kinali. The result shows that Kinali Coast is categorized as high vulnerability (CVI 3.95) and other 5 districts are moderate vulnerability (CVI 2.3-2.9).

Analysis of Community Social Economic Resilience Based on Coastal and Marine Natural Resources

Ecotourism's dependence on climate resources makes it one of the industries considered to be the most vulnerable. This study aims to analyze the socio-economic conditions of vulnerability and resilience of coastal and marine natural resources related to ecotourism development. Data analysis used descriptive qualitative analysis to identify perceptions of disaster characteristics and impacts and climate variability, as well as quantitative descriptive analysis to calculate changes in the household income of the Tamban Beach community and the level of resilience and vulnerability using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) method. The results show that the highest value of the main component is the ecology of 0.880, so it becomes the most vulnerable component. The factor with the highest value is the sensitivity, which is 0.475 and is the weakest. The LVI value in Tamban Beach is 0.311, indicating that community households in the area have a reasonably low vulnerability to coastal and marine resources in Tamban Beach. The household resilience level of the Tamban Beach community is mostly in the moderate category, as much as 45%. The Tamban Beach community needs to participate in seeking information on climate change actively weather forecasts together with related institutions.

Evaluation of coal seam floor water bursting in multi-aquifer Gequan coal mine, China

A water-bursting evaluation of the coal seam floor is critical to ensure safety of coal mine production. The vulnerability index method based on AHP is selected for this study’s evaluation method. Water pressure, measured specific yield, equivalent thickness of effective aquiclude, brittle rock thickness under mining pressure damage zone, distribution of faults, distribution of collapse column, distribution of endpoints, and the intersection of fault are taken as the evaluation index based on the analysis of geological data in the study area. The authors assessed the threat posed by the two aquifers in the lower portion of the coal seam. Separate evaluations were conducted on the Benxi and Ordovician limestone aquifers. The results’ veracity was confirmed by comparing the obtained results to the water bursting point and a few boreholes. The evaluation results provide recommendations for the safe operation of coal mines.

Microseismic response difference and failure analysis of roof and floor strata under dynamic load impact

The disaster induced by dynamic loads in the coal mining process seriously affects the safe production of coal mines. A new method for failure evaluation of roof and floor strata under dynamic load impact is proposed in this paper. The key roof strata breaking and periodic weighting experienced by the 9212 working face of the Dongpang Coal Mine in China while passing through the abandoned roadway is taken as the research background. Firstly, the research stages are divided through theoretical analysis and microseismic monitoring, and then the plane, profile distribution and spatial position relationship of microseismic events in different stages are analyzed. After that, the energy variation coefficient (CVE) and two spatial factors (S and α) are introduced to analyse the difference in the migration characteristics and damage degree of roof and floor strata under dynamic load impact. Then, the comprehensive weight is determined by principal component analysis and entropy weight method, and the failure evaluation model is established based on vulnerability index method; Finally, the risk grade zoning map of three stages is drawn by using ArcGIS technology. The research shows that the angle factor α can better describe the development direction of roof and floor fissures. The area factor S combined with the energy variation coefficient CVE can explain the development speed of fissures and the damage degree of coal and rock mass. According to the failure evaluation model, the corresponding risk degree of roof and floor in different stages can be comprehensively evaluated. The research results can be used as a reference for targeted disaster prevention and control in similar situations, such as large-area roof collapse and floor water inrush.

Integrated seismic risk assessment in Nepal

Abstract. Seismic risk analysis is necessary to mitigate the potential losses resulting from future earthquakes and supplement scientific risk management. In order to assist systematic evaluation and management of risk, it is indispensable to interpret risk in terms of social and economic consequences due to hazardous events like earthquakes. There is an interrelationship between hazards, physical risk, and the social characteristics of populations. Therefore, based on the existing studies focusing on each of these aspects, this paper presents the integrated seismic risk assessment along the subdivisional administrative units of Nepal using 2011 census data. The administrative unit “provinces” are subdivided into districts and each district into municipalities and village development committees (VDCs). The districts, municipalities, and VDCs were considered as our study units. In this paper, the physical or seismic risk was evaluated from the exposure model, hazard curves, and the vulnerability model of the country, whereas the social vulnerability was assessed using social vulnerability index (SoVI) methods. To formulate the physical risk, the assets used were five types of buildings under the exposure model. This model was combined with the physical vulnerability functions of the building and the hazard curves of the country. The result of the physical risk has been presented as annual average loss (AAL). Similarly, among 92 social vulnerability variables, 54 variables were reduced to 7 weighted parameters using principal component analysis (PCA). The scores of a total of 45 parameters were used to evaluate the SoVI index, which was further combined with the physical risk to evaluate integrated risk. The results showed that populated cities like Kathmandu, Hetauda, and Janakpur have a highly integrated risk index. Similarly, the Terai region bordering its neighbor India and some parts of the central hilly region are highly vulnerable, while most parts of the mountainous region in the central and eastern regions are the least vulnerable. The results from the present study can be utilized as a part of a comprehensive risk management framework at the district level to recuperate and recover from earthquakes.

Community livelihood vulnerability to drought in semi-arid areas of northern Cameroon

Drought is a devastating recurring climate hazard, with enormous impacts on livelihoods and attainment of sustainable development goals (SDGs) in semi-arid areas. The current study was conducted to evaluate households’ livelihood vulnerability to droughts in an African semi-arid region. A total of 384 households from a drought-prone region in Northern Cameroon were randomly sampled and interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Livelihood vulnerability was evaluated from the collected households’ data using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Vulnerability Index (IPCC-VI) methods. The LVI results showed that food insecurity, livelihood strategy and social networking were the major drivers of livelihood vulnerability. This was because almost all of the interviewed households relied on rain-fed agriculture and there was limited early drought warning information, which limited the achievements of some SDGs such as zero hunger, water accessibility and poverty alleviation. Adoption of drought-resilient and early maturing crops together with the use of agriculture extension officers to disseminate drought warnings are advised to reduce the effects of the livelihood vulnerability drivers and ensure sustainable development. The IPCC-VI showed that drought exposure and adaptive capacity were low while drought sensitivity was high among the surveyed households. The high sensitivity was due to food and water insecurity, while low adaptive capacity was due to a lack of formal education and a high dependency rate. Heavy investment in education and reducing the number of dependents through family planning and campaigning against polygamy could enhance households’ adaptive capacity. It was concluded that households’ livelihood vulnerability in the study area was due to high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity to drought. Drought reversed positive steps that had been taken to achieve various SDGs; however, heavy investment in other SDGs such as quality education and health could enhance households’ adaptive capacity and system sustainability in African semi-arid regions.

Assessment of Groundwater Vulnerability Using GIS-Based Modified DRASTIC Models, Case Study: Fasarood Plain, South Iran

Severe droughts and vast anthropogenic activities have propelled groundwater resource contamination in Iran. An accurate investigation of groundwater vulnerability objectively reflects an area’s potential for groundwater contamination and supplies a reference for contamination control and prevention. Therefore, the groundwater vulnerability of the Fasarood plain, south of Iran, was evaluated using the DRASTIC index (DI), Fuzzy-based DRASTIC index (FDI), Composite DRASTIC index (CDI), and Nitrate Vulnerability Index (NVI) methods. The input hydrogeological parameters were rated, weighted, and integrated via a geographical information system (GIS). The results of all models showed very low to moderate intrinsic and anthropogenic vulnerabilities to groundwater pollution. The zones with the most significant exposure may refer to geological formations and improper agriculture activity. The conclusions recommend that the area which was identified as having a higher groundwater pollution risk needs scientific land-use practise along with appropriate watershed management. The agriculturalists working in more vulnerable areas with high nitrate concentrations must begin practising an organic farming system and should replace chemical fertilisers with biofertilisers to reduce the groundwater contamination rate. Also, government departments should encourage reasonable control of groundwater pollution prohibition and withdraw based on changes in groundwater vulnerability in the area.

Risk Assessment of Water Inrush from Coal Floor Based on Karst Fractal-Vulnerability Index Method

Hidden karst structures are developed irregularly in the Middle Permian Maokou Formation aquifer from the northern part of the Guizhou coalfield, China. Mining operations associated with the exploitation of coal seams from the lower part of the Upper Permian Longtan Formation are threatened by karst waters from the underlying strata. To improve the accuracy of water inrush risk assessment of the karst aquifer floor in the northern Guizhou coalfield, the karst fractal quantification technique is implemented. In this study, the karst aquifer of the Maokou Formation located under the floor of the No. 15 coal seam from the Honglin Coal Mine is considered as the research object. Based on the karst results predicted by geophysical exploration methods, the fractal theory is used to quantify the degree of karst development, while the risk of water inrush from the floor of the coal seam is evaluated by applying ArcGIS information processing technology combined with the vulnerability index method. The results indicate the following observations: the mean fractal dimension of karst in the study area is 1.53, the karst structures are highly developed, and the overall distribution of karst is characterized by an irregular NW-SE direction; the main controlling factors affecting water inrush from the floor of the No. 15 coal seam are expressed by the water pressure of the aquifer, the abundance of water in the aquifer, the degree of karst development, the thickness of the effective impermeable layer, the mining depth, the coal seam dip angle, and the degree of fault complexity; the areas with the highest risk of floor water inrush are predominantly concentrated in the northwestern and central parts, but there is also a risk of floor water inrush in the first mining area of the No. 15 coal seam. This study takes into consideration complex factors such as the typical karst aquifer and the hydrogeological conditions in the northern part of the Guizhou coalfield, which results in a more realistic interpretation and can provide further guidance for water control activities in the mining area.

Seismic Risk Assessment of Urban Areas by a Hybrid Empirical-Analytical Procedure Based on Peak Ground Acceleration

The seismic risk assessment of existing urban areas provides important information for the process of seismic risk reduction in different phases of planning and emergency management. Between different large-scale assessment approaches, a vulnerability index method is often used for the first screening of the buildings and vulnerability classification. However, this method cannot fully predict the effects of a specific seismic action on buildings. This paper fully extends the scale of the settlement and properly upgrades a methodology previously proposed by authors to predict seismic damage and the risk to a restricted number of masonry buildings in the Croatian settlement Kaštel Kambelovac located along the Adriatic coast. The proposed approach is based on a hybrid empirical-analytical procedure that combines seismic vulnerability indices with critical peak ground accelerations for different limit states computed through a non-linear pushover analysis. The procedure’s outcomes are the computation of a relationship linking vulnerability indices to peak ground acceleration for a series of states, corresponding to damage limitation, significant damage, and near collapse. The described methodology is used to estimate seismic risk in terms of damage and the index of seismic risk for selected return periods. The general methodology has allowed a full seismic vulnerability assessment of the whole Croatian settlement of Kaštel Kambelovac.