Evaluating Sea Level Rise Impacts on the Southeastern Türkiye Coastline: a Coastal Vulnerability Perspective

Abstract

Coastal areas are inherently sensitive and dynamic, susceptible to natural forces like waves, winds, currents, and tides. Human activities further accelerate coastal changes, while climate change and global sea level rise add to the challenges. Recognizing and safeguarding these coasts, vital for both socioeconomic and environmental reasons, becomes imperative. The objective of this study is to categorize the coasts of the Mersin and İskenderun bays along the southeastern coast of Türkiye based on their vulnerability to natural forces and human-induced factors using the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) method. The study area encompasses approximately 520 km of coastline. The coastal vulnerability analysis reveals that the coastal zone comprises various levels of vulnerability along the total coastline: 24.7% (128 km) is categorized as very high vulnerability, 27.4% (142 km) as high vulnerability, 23.7% (123 km) as moderate vulnerability, and 24.3% (126 km) as low vulnerability. Key parameters influencing vulnerability include coastal slope, land use, and population density. High and very high vulnerability are particularly prominent in coastal plains characterized by gentle slopes, weak geological and geomorphological features, and significant socioeconomic value.