Making It Count Research Articles

Compulsory Voting in Australia: What is Compulsory?

Many academic and popular writers have argued that ‘compulsory voting’ is an illusion in Australia because it is not compulsory to fill out the ballot-paper. This is the orthodox assumption. I argue that this view is mistaken, and that the duty to vote clearly includes the marking of the paper. Whether and how the requirement is able to be enforced is a completely different question from whether it is indeed a requirement.

Turnout Matters: Evidence from Compulsory Voting in Australia

Despite extensive research on voting, there is little evidence connecting turnout to tangible outcomes. Would election results and public policy be different if everyone voted? The adoption of compulsory voting in Australia provides a rare opportunity to address this question. First, I collect two novel data sources to assess the extent of turnout inequality in Australia before compulsory voting. Overwhelmingly, wealthy citizens voted more than their working class counterparts. Next, exploiting the differential adoption of compulsory voting across states, I find that the policy increased voter turnout by 24 percentage points which in turn increased the vote shares and seat shares of the Labor Party by 7 to 10 percentage points. Finally, comparing across OECD countries, I find that Australia’s adoption of compulsory voting significantly increased turnout and pension spending at the national level. Results suggest that democracies with voluntary voting do not represent the preferences of all citizens. Instead, increased voter turnout can dramatically alter election outcomes and resulting public policies.

PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE OF COMPULSORY VOTING: EXPLAINING THE AUSTRALIAN CASE

This paper explores the reasons behind public acceptance of compulsory voting in Australia and canvasses some of the effects on political culture of its proper use. After providing some history and background to the Australian situation, the paper offers explanations for high public tolerance towards compulsory voting. The last part of the paper considers reforms to the Australian system that could enhance public tolerance still further. Findings will be useful to those contemplating the adoption of compulsory voting but who are concerned about public resistance.

Children and families: Relationships between family attitudes, household composition and voting in Australia

In the light of ongoing demographic trends (such as low fertility rates and growth of single-person households), some of the features of the 2004 Australian federal election outcomes and campaign raise the possibility that we might have seen the beginnings of a divide in voting behaviour based on family structure, particularly those aspects related to the presence of children. Relevant data from the 2004 Australian Election Study (AES) are quite limited, so I use data from both the 2004 AES and the 2003 Australian Survey of Social Attitudes to explore the relationships between federal voting and family structure, and attitudes towards children, parenting and families of different types. The results show effects on voting that apparently result from financial considerations related to the presence of children and others that are related to differences of values.

Anti-Immigrant Sentiment, Policy Preferences and Populist Party Voting in Australia

Immigration has become a highly salient political issue in many of the world's affluent democracies. Yet, the electoral dynamics of anti-immigrant sentiment remain barely understood. We distinguish two dimensions of concern about immigrants: material threat and cultural threat, and hold that the influence of both on the right-wing populist party vote is critically mediated by policy preferences to restrict immigration and to isolate Australia from foreign influence. The result is a path model of voting that allows material and cultural threat to influence policy preferences about how to deal with the ‘immigrant problem’, and allows both threat and policy preferences to affect voting for the far-right One Nation party in Australia. Our results confirm that popular concern about immigrants is multi-dimensional and that its two dimensions have different sources. We also demonstrate that anti-immigrant sentiment works indirectly through policy orientations to influence vote choice. Feelings about immigrants, in other words, have an electoral effect only when there is a good fit between the policy stances of voters and the policies promoted by the parties on offer.

Above‐the‐line voting in Australia: How democratic?

(2005). Above‐the‐line voting in Australia: How democratic? Representation: Vol. 41, No. 4, pp. 286-290.

Antipartyism and Third-Party Vote Choice

The effect of antiparty sentiment on voting behavior is examined comparatively using recent individual-level electoral survey data from Canada, Britain, and Australia. The author distinguishes two dimensions of antipartyism: the rejection of traditional major-party alternatives (specific antiparty sentiment) and of political parties per se (generalized antiparty sentiment). He argues that disaffected voters in these countries are attracted to third or minor parties and support them to voice antiparty sentiments. The results show that in general, third parties benefit from specific antiparty sentiment at the mass level. The rejection of party politics per se, in contrast, brings citizens to abstain, unless some third parties—antiparty parties such as the Reform Party in Canada and One Nation in Australia—electorally mobilize generalized antiparty feelings. The results also indicate that compulsory voting in Australia affects disaffected voters’ behavior; in particular, those who reject all party alternatives would be more likely to abstain if they had the choice.

Instant Runoff Voting: What Mexico (and Others) Could Learn

Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and PolicyVol. 3, No. 3 Procedural Issues - Learning from Each OtherInstant Runoff Voting: What Mexico (and Others) Could LearnRobert RichieRobert RichieSearch for more papers by this authorPublished Online:18 Aug 2004https://doi.org/10.1089/1533129041492150AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB Permissions & CitationsPermissionsDownload CitationsTrack CitationsAdd to favorites Back To Publication ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited byRanked Choice Voting in Australia and America: Do Voters Follow Party Cues?15 June 2021 | Politics and Governance, Vol. 9, No. 2Election Reform and Women’s Representation: Ranked Choice Voting in the U.S.15 June 2021 | Politics and Governance, Vol. 9, No. 2Electoral Institutions and Substantive Representation in Local Politics: The Effects of Ranked Choice VotingSSRN Electronic Journal, Vol. 43Election Manipulation 10013 March 2020Election Manipulation with Partial Information24 September 2019Theorie und Praxis kollektiver Entscheidungen12 November 2018Low-Information Voting: Evidence From Instant-Runoff Elections23 March 2018 | American Politics Research, Vol. 46, No. 6Maine ranked-choice voting as a case of electoral-system change25 July 2018 | Representation, Vol. 54, No. 3Low-Information Voting: Evidence from Instant-Runoff ElectionsSSRN Electronic JournalRanked Choice Voting and Attitudes toward Democracy in the United States: Results from a Survey Experiment10 August 2017 | Politics & Policy, Vol. 45, No. 4Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections28 November 2016 | Journal of Urban Affairs, Vol. 38, No. 3Randomized Ballot Order Can Increase Invalid Votes: Evidence from AustraliaSSRN Electronic JournalTheorie der Gremienentscheidung31 October 2014Theorie der Gremienentscheidung31 October 2014 Volume 3Issue 3Sep 2004 Information© 2004 Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.To cite this article:Robert Richie.Instant Runoff Voting: What Mexico (and Others) Could Learn.Election Law Journal: Rules, Politics, and Policy.Sep 2004.501-512.http://doi.org/10.1089/1533129041492150Published in Volume: 3 Issue 3: August 18, 2004PDF download

Ballot Order: Donkey Voting in Australia

A recent California decision has thrown into sharp relief the benefit received by candidates favorably placed at the top of a ballot. After finding that officials had ordered candidates’ names erroneously, a Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge reversed a close electoral result in the small city of Compton on the basis of statistical evidence drawn from studies of other elections. Ballot order advantage, whilst long a concern to psephologists and candidates, has tended to be seen as a question of the “luck of the draw”—an issue for designing a fairer system of devising ballots, rather than one of corrective justice in an individual race. The initial result in Compton seems extraordinary to an outsider from a jurisdiction where disputed returns are rare and, even if successful, result only in a re-election.1 Such an outcome only makes sense if the successful candidate were linked to proof of manipulation of the draw.

Postmaterialist and Economic Voting in Australia, 1990-98

Recent research in Australian sociology and political science has debated the extent to which postmaterialist values and economic self-interest shape voting in federal elections. Some researchers have argued that postmaterialist values have partly displaced materialist concerns with physical security and economic well-being in Australian public life. This displacement, coupled with the adoption by major political parties of postmaterialist 'quality of life' issues such as the environment, has meant that voting in Australia has come to be more dependent on postmaterialist values than on perceptions of economic interest. Other research, however, has found no relationship between postmaterialist values and voting behaviour, while economic evaluations remain a strong determinant of voting behaviour. Part of the disagreement reflects methodological differences in the research. But different methodological problems compromise each of the previous studies. In this paper we use data from the 1990, 1993, 1996 and 1998 Australian Election Studies to investigate postmaterialist and economic voting in the Commonwealth House of Representatives and the Senate. Using various statistical methods, we first explore bivariate relationships between key variables and then use multivariate models of postmaterialist and economic voting to adjudicate between the contending positions.

Class voting, social change, and the left in Australia, 1943-96.

The relationship between class and voting choices has been the subject of controversy in recent years, especially in connection with the apparent decline of the traditional left. This paper examines class voting in Australia, focusing on three major issues: (1) changes in the overall strength of class voting (2) realignment, or changes in the relative political positions of the classes (3) the connection between the strength of class voting and support for Labor. It finds that (1) there is a decline in 'general' class voting (2) much of this decline involves a realignment of certain middle class groups, but there is no support for the popular idea that class alignments have become more complex (3) there is no connection between the strength of class voting and Labor performance. Our results cast doubt on accounts that regard the electoral difficulties of left parties as a symptom of the decline of class.

Non-compulsory voting in Australia?: what surveys can (and can't) tell us

Compulsory voting has come under close scrutiny in recent Australian political debate. Conventional wisdom maintains that a repeal of compulsory voting would result in a sizeable electoral boost for the conservative Coalition parties; the proportion of Coalition voters who would not voluntarily turn out is thought to be smaller than the corresponding proportion of Labor Party voters. But these estimates rely on methods hampered by critical shortcomings, and so the conventional wisdom is easily challenged or dismissed. I examine the use of surveys in assessing the counter-factual of non-compulsory voting, focusing on the 1996 Australian Election Study. While turnout is compulsory in Australia, responding to surveys isn't; people who respond to surveys generally have more interest in politics than non-respondents, so it is unsurprising that survey respondents report a voluntary turnout rate approaching 90%. Respondents also tend to exaggerate the probability that they would voluntarily turn out. I draw on examples where the effects of survey non-response and over-reporting on estimates of turnout have been estimated (including the NES vote validation studies). Using these examples as a guide, I find that surveys overestimate the voluntary turnout rates likely to be encountered in Australia (55% to 70%, versus the survey estimate of 88.8%), and the extent to which a fall in turnout would work to the advantage of the Coalition parties. The Liberal Party still appears to benefit from a shift to voluntary turnout, though these gains are not as large as the conventional wisdom suggests.

Preferential voting and political engineering: A comparative study

The preferential voting system used in Australia has received limited attention there in recent times, but considerably more interest internationally, where it is often known as the ‘alternative vote’. While the academic literature also usually refers to the ‘alternative vote’, this article will follow the local nomenclature of most of the countries cited — including Australia, Papua New Guinea and Sri Lanka — where the terms ‘preferential vote’ and ‘preferential voting’ are invariably used. The article begins by giving a brief overview of the history of preferential voting in Australia (where it has been a feature of national elections to the House of Representatives since 1918) and the abortive attempts to introduce the system in Great Britain and New Zealand. It examines the ‘political engineering’ potential of the preferential vote, including the claims made for preferential voting with regard to the new South Africa and the robust debate on the merits of preferential electoral systems that has taken place in Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Fiji. It concludes by identifying a range of possible advantages that preferential voting may have in comparison to other majoritarian electoral systems such as first-past-the-post, particularly for divided societies.

The new information infrastructure: Strategies for U.S. policies

Australia has one of the highest levels of invalid votes among the established liberal democracies. Three hypotheses have been put forward to account for variations in turnout—that it results from institutional factors, differing patterns of social structure, or reflects political protest by voters. These hypotheses are used to explain informal voting in Australia's compulsory voting system. The data are national polling booth results for the 1987 and 1990 federal elections, and polling booth results from New South Wales matched to the 1986 census. The results reject the institutional and protest hypotheses, but support the social structural hypothesis. In particular, immigrants who are recently arrived and have poor English skills are significantly more likely to spoil their votes. Australia's high level of invalid votes is therefore explained by the interaction between compulsory voting, the complexity of the electoral system, and by the presence of large numbers of immigrants within the electorate. The results have significant implications for the design of electoral systems in the newly-emerging democracies of Eastern Europe.

Measure it to make it count

Measure it to make it count

Partisanship and the vote in Australia: Changes over time 1967?1990

This study investigates the influence of partisanship on the vote in Australia between 1967 and 1990. The investigation is the context of a model of electoral choice based on the “revisionist” elaboration of the Michigan model of electoral choice. The model specifies direct effects of partisanship, issues and leader evaluations on vote and reciprocal relations between partisanship and both issues and leader evaluations. The major finding is a decline in the influence of partisanship on the vote. This decline occurred in the presence of stable levels of partisanship in the electorate. Furthermore, the decline in the impact of partisanship appears to precede the declines in the proportion of strong identifiers. This decline was coincident with a moderate increase in the influence of issues with issues particularly strong at the 1990 election. The effects of leader evaluations show no consistent patterns over time suggesting that Australian politics has not become more “presidential.” The reciprocal effects of issues and leader evaluations on partisanship, were greater during the 1980s than during the late 1960s. The decline in the partisanship-vote relation was steeper when these reciprocal effects are taken into account.

Institutions, society or protest? Explaining invalid votes in Australian elections

Australia has one of the highest levels of invalid votes among the established liberal democracies. Three hypotheses have been put forward to account for variations in turnout—that it results from institutional factors, differing patterns of social structure, or reflects political protest by voters. These hypotheses are used to explain informal voting in Australia's compulsory voting system. The data are national polling booth results for the 1987 and 1990 federal elections, and polling booth results from New South Wales matched to the 1986 census. The results reject the institutional and protest hypotheses, but support the social structural hypothesis. In particular, immigrants who are recently arrived and have poor English skills are significantly more likely to spoil their votes. Australia's high level of invalid votes is therefore explained by the interaction between compulsory voting, the complexity of the electoral system, and by the presence of large numbers of immigrants within the electorate. The results have significant implications for the design of electoral systems in the newly-emerging democracies of Eastern Europe.

Split ticket voting in Australia: Dealignment and inconsistent votes reconsidered

This article critically examines the traditional American assumption that split ticket voting represents an indicator of partisan dysfunction and dealignment. It is argued that this assumption ignores the impact of system‐specific voting structures on voting patterns. Thus, we propose alternatively to explore ticket spitting in Australia, where a system of preferential vote and proportional representation creates very different structural opportunities for voters to pursue tactical votes that need not engender dealignment. Aggregate and survey data from the 1987 and 1990 federal elections are analysed. Aggregate results show a general upturn in voting consistent with tactical voting, while survey results suggest Australian ticket splitters are a tactically aware, politically interested subset who, in the context of wavering, but not supplanted partisanship, utilise especially Senate minor party votes to put a brake on major party hegemony.

The Formation and Development of Party Loyalties: Patterns among Australian Immigrants

The loyalties voters feel towards political parties are central to the stability of democratic systems. Political socialisation theories explain these loyalties through parental inheritance. This paper analyses the consequences for party loyalties when parental in heritance is absent, through an examination of partisanship among Australian immigrants. Three hypotheses to explain immigrant par tisanship — withdrawal, economic self-interest, and re-socialisation are tested using a large national survey conducted among immi grants in 1988. The results support the withdrawal and economic self-interest hypotheses, but reject the re-socialisation hypothesis. The relative periods of time spent in the donor and host societies do not appear to have any influence on partisanship. Lacking the affect ive bond to parties provided by parental political socialisation, immigrants appear able to change their party loyalties relatively easily, as studies of ethnic voting in Australia have shown.

Ethnic issues and voting in the 1987 federal election

Abstract Although ethnic issues have had a higher profile in Australian politics in the 1980s, they still engender few party political differences among voters, showing that bipartisanship on immigration and multiculturalism remains important. However, a plurality of Australian voters now want an end to all immigration, a major change from twenty years ago. The patterns of ethnic voting which were observed in 1979 were maintained in the 1987 federal election, suggesting that the period between 1973 and 1979 represented a political fault‐line in ethnic voting in Australia. Overall, Labor is the net beneficiary from the ethnic vote; without support from Southern Europeans in the 1987 election, they would have trailed the Liberal‐National coalition by 2 per cent of the total vote.