Voter Preferences Research Articles

Mutual Shaping: A Study of Political Party Behaviour and Voter Preference Changes in Malaysia's General Elections from 2018 to 2022

ABSTRACT In November 2022, Malaysian parliamentary elections marked a significant shift as Malaysia experienced its first ‘hung parliament’ since independence. The dominant Perikatan Nasional (PN) was compelled to form a ‘Unity Government’ with its rival Barisan Nasional (BN) and other political parties. Interpretations of the outcome varied, largely attributed to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic and the participation of millions of first-time voters. This paper examines the 15th Malaysian elections and trends in party politics from 2018 to 2022. It argues that the dynamic interaction between Malaysian parties, alliances, and voters significantly shapes voter preferences, influencing party agendas and image construction, thus impacting election outcomes. Through analysis of the 2018 and 2022 elections and introducing the ‘two-tier, two-way’ framework, it elucidates the intricate relationship between party-voter interaction and changes in voter preferences amidst evolving political-economic factors. The socio-economic and political landscape in Malaysia during this period exhibited distinctive characteristics. Varied party responses to these changes led to diverse campaign strategies. Consequently, the interaction between parties and voters, and the resulting voter responses, played a pivotal role in shaping campaign practices and influencing the 15th Malaysian parliamentary.

Shifting from Religious Populism to Authoritarian Populism: Two Decades of Identity Politics Dynamics in Indonesia

This article aims to answer the question of whether identity-based movements are free from tendencies in political economy. By analyzing the actions and orientations of the militant Islamic group from the New Order to the Reform era, we show that social movements based on cultural identities are far from representing the demands of groups of recognition. Rather, these movements are leveraged as political tools for the executive group in determining dominant issues among the public to increase voter preferences and bring economic benefits to militant Islamic groups. This is insisted upon through a shift in political trends from religious populism to authoritarian populism. We argue that a possible solution could be prioritizing democratic values that lead to performance and integrity, not sectoral interests that can create fragmentation in society.

What Can Interactive Visualization do for Participatory Budgeting in Chicago?

Participatory budgeting (PB) is a democratic approach to allocating municipal spending that has been adopted in many places in recent years, including in Chicago. Current PB voting resembles a ballot where residents are asked which municipal projects, such as school improvements and road repairs, to fund with a limited budget. In this work, we ask how interactive visualization can benefit PB by conducting a design probe-based interview study (N = 13) with policy workers and academics with expertise in PB, urban planning, and civic HCI. Our probe explores how graphical elicitation of voter preferences and a dashboard of voting statistics can be incorporated into a realistic PB tool. Through qualitative analysis, we find that visualization creates opportunities for city government to set expectations about budget constraints while also granting their constituents greater freedom to articulate a wider range of preferences. However, using visualization to provide transparency about PB requires efforts to mitigate potential access barriers and mistrust. We call for more visualization professionals to help build civic capacity by working in and studying political systems.

Media Sosial dan Aplikasi Kecerdasan Buatan Dalam Preferensi dan Partisipasi Pemilih Di Pemilihan Umum

The advancement of internet-based information technology has made online social networks essential for general elections. Social media plays a positive role by increasing voter participation in politics. This study aims to analyze voter preferences regarding the use of social media during elections and to examine how artificial intelligence applications can be employed to engage voters. The research involves conducting surveys and performing system analyses. The results indicate that social media influences 59.3% of voters, establishing it as the primary platform for political information and communication. Artificial intelligence-based applications are designed to attract young voters through innovative interactions and personalized experiences. These applications can serve as effective modern campaign tools to reach a broader audience of voters

Social Identity and Political Preferences of First-Time Voters in the 2024 Presidential Election

Social Identity and Political Preferences of First-Time Voters in the 2024 Presidential Election

Democracy in the face of identity politics: Indonesian citizens’ perspectives

ABSTRACT This study investigates the role of religious orientation in shaping voter behavior in Madura during the 2019 Indonesian presidential election. Employing a mixed-method approach, the research examines how Islamic identity politics influenced voter preferences in a region characterized by religious homogeneity. The study finds that while support for Islamic organizations and religious leadership (ulama/kiai) played a significant role in mobilizing voters, explicit religious identity in candidates and promises to implement Sharia law were less effective. The research also highlights the complexities of identity politics in Madura, where the influence of local religious leaders and organizations often supersedes the broader national political narratives. These findings contribute to the broader discourse on identity politics in Indonesia and its implications for democratic stability.

Party responsiveness to public opinion in a multi-dimensional policy space

ABSTRACT Party responsiveness to public opinion is a key question in the study of democratic representation. While numerous studies have examined party responsiveness on broad ideological dimensions, there is less comparative research on when and how parties respond to public opinion on more specific issue dimensions. We aim to address this research gap by studying party positional responsiveness on seven issue dimensions. We conceptualise party responsiveness as parties adjusting their positions to eliminate the previous incongruence between themselves and the central point in the voter preference distribution. This enables us to examine not only whether parties are responsive to public opinion, but also how much party responsiveness contributes to party-voter congruence. Building on theories of social cleavages and party competition, we develop and test hypotheses on how patterns of responsiveness vary across issues depending on whether they are of core or secondary relevance to the party's ideological identity. Our empirical analysis combines the Chapel Hill Expert Surveys, the European Social Survey and the European Election Study from 14 Western European countries. We find that parties respond to their supporters on both core and secondary issues. We also show that responsiveness to party supporters is generally compatible with parties responding to the broader electorate.

Gendered exits: The role of parliamentarians, parties and voters in women's departure from the European Parliament

Extensive research explores women's entry into parliament and their political influence. However, reasons for women leaving, particularly in the European Parliament context, remain unclear. This study investigates departure patterns of women European parliamentarians from 2009 to 2019, investigating the role of politicians themselves, national parties, and voters. The study finds less gender differences in parliamentarians’ exit than expected, highlighting national parties’ pivotal role in a women-friendly European setting and the importance of the mediating power of the electoral system. Contrary to expectations, national parties do not disadvantage women during re-selection. Women experience higher re-election probabilities, influenced by parties’ strategies and voter preferences. Also, those women who want to progress to the national political level from the EP are not less likely to succeed in their post-parliamentary career. I conclude that electoral institutions, along with their interaction with political actors, influence women's career paths.

Can the European Parliament be a stepping stone into national politics? The gendered career paths of Maltese and Luxembourgish members of the European Parliament

The representation of women in the European Parliament tends to be higher than in many national parliaments. Therefore, this article examines to what extent experience as a Member of the European Parliament could serve as a stepping stone into national politics. It focuses on Luxembourg and Malta as two typical cases of small states with preferential voting systems with an incumbency bias. It first identifies the challenges women face, then analyses how they affect the career paths of Members of the European Parliament. It argues that being a Member of the European Parliament does not resolve all cultural and institutional hurdles, but that it addresses the low visibility of women and the incumbency bias of the electoral systems in these two countries. However, reforms at the national level are unavoidable if the gender gap in national parliaments is to be resolved.

“Your house won’t be yours anymore!” Effects of Misinformation, News Use, and Media Trust on Chile’s Constitutional Referendum

News consumption and voting behavior are interlinked and particularly important in elections where traditional political cleavages are not easily applicable. This relationship becomes more complex and uncertain in contexts of low trust in the news media and high levels of misinformation circulating in different news ecosystems. In this study, we test an indirect path between differentiated news media consumption and voting choices, mediated by belief in misinformation, and moderated by news media trust. Our data come from a two-wave panel survey of 1,332 respondents, conducted in Chile before and after the 2022 Constitutional Referendum, a political event that captured international attention after a constitutional proposal was rejected in a process initiated with high public support. Our analyses found that news media consumption significantly affected voting preferences in the referendum, not only indirectly through the acceptance of misinformation, but also directly, suggesting that news organizations might act, intentionally or not, as soundboards of misinformation. These findings suggest that countries with enough press freedom to rely on the news media to be informed but also a high concentration of ownership, topics, and angles covered, might become fertile soil for misinformation to spread in the form of professional news coverage, instead of fabricated, easy-to-spot fake pieces circulating in dubious websites or on social media.

The Art of Self-selection or the Intervention of the Voters? The 2023 Election and the Shifting Social Bias of Slovak Parliamentary Elites since 2006

Recent research has shown a trend towards more participatory nomination procedures in new as well as more established parties. However, in Slovakia most politically relevant parties have equally centralised, leadership dominated, and exclusive candidate selection modes. In the first part of the article I draw on the elite literature to investigate cross-party variation in the social bias of parliamentary elites since 2006. Using the 2023 election as a point of departure, I go on to assess how representative MPs are of their own voters, and why social bias varies across parties despite their similar selection modes. The analysis demonstrates that the impact of the selection mode as well as of voter preferences is contingent on the nomination practices of the individual parties. I found strong elements of self-selection in nearly all parties: the members of the presidium nominated themselves, and the composition of the parliamentary elites thus to a considerable extent reflects who the presidium members are. The influence of the voters is limited, because they tend to confirm the priorities of the selectorates; however, in the case of the four smallest parties in 2023, preference voting to some extent mitigated the effect of self-selection. The main drivers of preference voting were the idiosyncratic nomination practice of Ordinary People, and the presence of organised groups and parties on the list (informal alliances).

Populism and ideological convergence: Evidence from a multiparty system

Populist parties have gained significant power in European politics in the last decades, raising concerns about the potentially contagious effect of populism. I study how populist party representation in local councils affects other parties’ ideological positions. I use variation created by close elections to identify ideological shifts resulting from a change in party representation, holding voter preferences constant. I use candidate-level data from a voting advice application to estimate ideological positions, modeling candidates’ responses using item response theory to obtain measures of ideology that are comparable across election years. The results show that increased populist representation causes the ideological spectrum among other parties’ candidates in the municipality to become more concentrated. One additional seat for the populist party reduces the interquartile range of candidate positions by 9 %. While there is initial ideological convergence between mainstream and populist parties, it does not persist as the populist party continues to gain more seats. These effects take place only on the liberal-conservative dimension, while positions on the economic dimension are unaffected. The results demonstrate that increased populist representation influences other parties and causes ideological convergence within the candidate base.

Hometown Advantage: Voter Preferences for Community Embeddedness in Local Contests

Abstract Every year, Americans elect hundreds of thousands of candidates to local public office, typically in low-attention, nonpartisan races. How do voters evaluate candidates in these sorts of elections? Previous research suggests that, absent party cues, voters rely on a set of heuristic shortcuts – including the candidate’s name, profession, and interest group endorsements – to decide whom to support. In this paper, we suggest that community embeddedness – a candidate’s roots and ties to the community – is particularly salient in these local contests. We present evidence from a conjoint survey experiment on a nationally representative sample of American voters. We estimate the marginal effect on vote share of candidate attributes such as gender, race, age, profession, interest group endorsements, and signals of community embeddedness – specifically homeownership and residency duration. We find that voters, regardless of political party, have strong preferences for community embeddedness. Strikingly, the magnitude of the residency duration effect rivals that of prior political experience.

Community Typology and Voting Behavior in Elections: A Political Sociology Perspective

Regional head elections (Pilkada) are a democratic process that reflects the social dynamics of society in choosing leaders in regional elections, using a sociological approach to understand the social facts of society. This research aims to analyze typologies that influence voter preferences. This research uses qualitative methods with a case study approach in several regions that hold regional elections. Data was obtained through in-depth interviews, observation and documentation studies. The research results show that society can be classified into several typologies, such as pragmatic voters, ideological voters, and traditional voters. Pragmatic voters tend to vote based on personal interests or direct benefits, while ideological voters place more emphasis on the candidate's vision, mission and work program. Meanwhile, traditional voters are influenced by cultural factors, kinship, or personal relationships with candidates. Social factors such as campaign intensity, influence of public figures, and access to information also play an important role in shaping voter preferences. These findings show that voting behavior patterns are not only determined by rational aspects, but also by social and cultural values ​​inherent in society. This research makes an important contribution in understanding voter behavior from a sociological perspective, which can be a reference for stakeholders in designing political strategies that are more inclusive and responsive to community needs. Apart from that, the results of this research can also enrich the study of political sociology, especially in the context of local democracy in Indonesia.

Understanding the effect of abortion attitudes on elections after Dobbs: Evidence from cross‐sectional and panel surveys in Texas

AbstractObjectiveWe investigate the nature of abortion opinion after the Dobbs decision's reversal of Roe v. Wade with attention to the evaluation of incumbents and vote preference.MethodWe relied on pre‐ and post‐election cross‐sectional and panel survey data from Texas. Texas is an important case because (1) the ruling placed abortion policy squarely on the shoulders of the states and (2) each state has different laws regarding abortion (including so‐called “trigger” laws restricting abortion after Roe was overturned).ResultsThe data suggest that state abortion policy context affects voter attitudes and that incumbent evaluations and the vote in Texas were largely insulated from an anti‐Dobbs backlash in 2022.ConclusionIt is unrealistic to assume that a unidimensional response occurred to the Dobbs decision. The response to subnational policy changes has reflected a similar shift in the intensity of policy views that was found nationally after the Roe decision. We develop a broader thematic approach to understand the nature of abortion opinion and its impact on the evaluation of incumbents and on vote preference in 2022.

Impact of information shortcuts on preferential voting: Gender and ballot position effects in Luxembourg and Switzerland

AbstractFree party lists provide voters with greater freedom of choice than other electoral systems, allowing them to select candidates within and between parties. Given that free party lists are cognitively highly demanding, voters have incentives to use shortcuts to discriminate between candidates. This study uses multilevel linear regression models to analyze the effect of candidates' gender and ballot position on preference voting in Luxembourg and Switzerland. Our results show that both candidates' gender and ballot position have a significant effect on their preference voting share and provide evidence on how they interact in intraparty competition. Candidates' ballot position has an inverse J‐shaped effect on their preference vote share. This effect varies with candidates' gender in both countries but works in different directions. Our findings have important implications for electoral system design, outlining the potential consequences of alphabetical and party‐ordered lists for candidates' chances and for electoral gender quotas' effectiveness under intraparty preference voting procedures.

Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Preferensi Pemilih Usia Muda dalam Pemilihan Presiden 2024 di Kota Medan menggunakan Regresi Logistik Biner

This study aims to identify factors that influence young voters' preferences in the 2024 presidential election in Medan City. There are 12 independent variables used in this study, namely socio-culture, age, education, track record, policy, political issues, political interest, campaign, social media, trust, candidate quality, and debate results. The dependent variable is voter preference, with a value of 0 for not voting and 1 for voting. This study used binary logistic regression method with purposive sampling technique to collect data from 271 respondents of young voters in Medan City. The results show that the independent variables jointly affect the dependent variable, as indicated by the G-test value of 85.909 which is greater than the value of χ_((0,05;12))^2(21.026). Through the Wald test, it is known that there are 6 independent variables that have a significant effect on the dependent variable, namely socio-culture (9.011), age (11.339), track record (4.638), political issues (4.403), campaign (4.165) and debate results (13.901), where these values are greater than the value of χ_((0,05;1))^2(3.841). While the remaining 6 variables, namely education (1.203), policy (0.072), political interest (1.435), social media (0.128), trust (1.557), and candidate quality (1.891) have no significant effect on the dependent variable, because the Wald test values of the six variables are smaller than the value of χ_((0,05;1))^2(3.841).

How Do Immigration Policies Affect Voter Support for Low-Skilled Immigrants? Evidence from a Survey Experiment

Countries depend on both high- and low-skilled immigration to meet economic needs. But most voters prefer high-skilled immigrants, despite the fact that multiple economic sectors structurally depend on low-skilled immigrants. In this paper, we examine voter preferences toward low-skilled immigrants as one barrier to effective immigration policy, even in political regimes where immigration is the consequence of highly coordinated or “planned” policies. Specifically, we consider whether government communication around the benefits of low-skilled immigration can increase favorability of such policies. We are particularly interested in the ways in which government communicates immigration messages and whether the scope or concentration of the proposed benefits will move individual preferences. In an online survey experiment, we present Canadians ( N=2,023) with a policy brief that manipulates immigrant skill level (high vs. low), economic outcomes of migration (positive vs. mixed), and the geographic scope of benefits (concentrated vs. sociotropic). Employing two measures of policy support, we find some evidence that positive framing can increase overall support for low-skill migrants. We also find that manipulating framing around high-skilled workers has little effect on support for low-skill workers, even when that framing presents countervailing evidence as to the benefit of high-skilled labor. In sum, our findings suggest that elite level communication around the benefits of low-skill labor may have the ability to disrupt longstanding antipathy for low-skilled labor, even in regimes with longstanding support for high-skilled labor.

Quality-of-life in segregated places: what does it mean for young adults in Bogota?

ABSTRACT This paper assesses young adults’ quality-of-life in the context of urban segregation by using the Capability Approach as an informative framework to analyse people’s well-being. The study employs an open list of 15 urban capabilities to assess how young adults experience life in contexts when patterns of residential segregation are at play. Results show that quality-of-life outcomes diverge considerably between urban areas characterised by higher and lower degrees of social mix as young adults progress differently in the achievement of capabilities. The findings reveal that in mixed communities, while peer influence and social networks have a limited effect on young adults’ opportunities, there is a benefit derived from increased access to job opportunities and urban resources through interactions with better-off dwellers. Conversely, in areas with lower levels of social mixing, role models and social networks primarily operate within same-class boundaries, potentially restricting young adults’ life perspectives and hinder social mobility.

Isu-Isu Politik dalam Kampanye Calon Presiden RI terhadap Preferensi Pemilih di Nusa Tenggara Barat

This study examines the preferences of voters in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) in the context of the 2024 Indonesian presidential election and how various political issues influence their choices. Utilizing a quantitative approach and descriptive survey, data was collected from 2,672 respondents representing diverse educational and occupational backgrounds in the NTB region. The findings reveal various political issues affecting voter preferences, including economic, social, environmental, security, leadership, and other issues. The most dominant issue in NTB voters' preferences is Nationalist Religious Issues, with about 24% of respondents considering it the most important issue. Socialism and Cultural Issues also receive significant attention, reflecting concern for the preservation of local culture and social integration. Additionally, Education and Public Health Issues are high priorities for NTB voters, indicating the need for access to quality education and good healthcare services. This research provides a deeper understanding of the political dynamics in NTB and the factors influencing voter decisions. The results can guide presidential candidates and political parties in designing campaign platforms relevant to the needs of this region. Furthermore, this study can help enhance political participation, advance important issues, and strengthen political representation at the local level. Recommendations are given for further studies on the role of religion in NTB politics, evaluation of issue fulfillment in public policy, analysis of demographic changes, and studies on political participation in NTB. This research is expected to provide valuable contributions to understanding regional politics in Indonesia and voter preferences that could influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential election in NTB.