Voting Behavior Research Articles

Designing Digital Voting Systems for Citizens: Achieving Fairness and Legitimacy in Participatory Budgeting

Participatory Budgeting (PB) has evolved into a key democratic instrument for resource allocation in cities. Enabled by digital platforms, cities now have the opportunity to let citizens directly propose and vote on urban projects, using different voting input and aggregation rules. However, the choices cities make in terms of the rules of their PB have often not been informed by academic studies on voter behaviour and preferences. Therefore, this work presents the results of behavioural experiments where participants were asked to vote in a fictional PB setting. We identified approaches to designing PB voting that minimise cognitive load and enhance the perceived fairness and legitimacy of the digital process from the citizens’ perspective. In our study, participants preferred voting input formats that are more expressive (like rankings and distributing points) over simpler formats (like approval voting). Participants also indicated a desire for the budget to be fairly distributed across city districts and project categories. Participants found the Method of Equal Shares voting rule to be fairer than the conventional Greedy voting rule. These findings offer actionable insights for digital governance, contributing to the development of fairer and more transparent digital systems and collective decision-making processes for citizens.

Why do majoritarian systems benefit the right? Income groups and vote choice across different electoral systems

Abstract This research note investigates how the voting behavior of middle-income citizens explains why right-wing parties tend to govern under majoritarian electoral rule. The growing literature that investigates the ideological effects of electoral systems has mostly focused on institutional explanations. However, whether the electoral rules overrepresent parties with some specific ideologies is also a matter of behavior. Building on Iversen and Soskice (2006), we test two arguments. First, middle-income groups are more likely to vote for the right under majoritarian rules because they fear the redistributive consequences of a victory of the left in these contexts. Second, middle-income earners particularly concerned with tax rates are particularly prone to vote differently across electoral systems. Combining survey evidence from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and the New Zealand Election Study, we show that the voting behavior of middle-income citizens is indeed responsible for the predominance of the right under majoritarian systems.

Economic Distress and Electoral Consequences: Evidence from Appalachia

Abstract Information about inequality can change political attitudes in lab and survey experiments. I use data from the Appalachian Regional Commission and a regression discontinuity design to test whether salient information about local poverty can impact voter behavior in a field setting. I find that when the poorest decile of counties is labeled “economically distressed,” the Democratic share of the Presidential and House popular vote rises in subsequent elections. I present suggestive evidence linking this result to local news coverage, rather than spending or other outcomes.

Inflation in 2022 did not affect congressional voting, but abortion did

This study examines voting in the 2022 United States congressional elections, contests that were widely expected to produce a sizable defeat for Democratic candidates for largely economic reasons. Based on a representative national probability sample of voters interviewed in both 2020 and 2022, individuals who changed their vote from one party's congressional candidate to another party's candidate did not do so in response to the salience of inflation or declining economic conditions. Instead, we find strong evidence that views on abortion were central to shifting votes in the midterm elections. Americans who favored (opposed) legal abortions were more likely to shift from voting for Republican (Democratic) candidates in 2020 to Democratic (Republican) candidates in 2022. Since a larger number of Americans supported than opposed legal abortions, the combination of these shifts ultimately improved the electoral prospects of Democratic candidates. New voters were especially likely to weigh abortion views heavily in their vote-shifting calculus. Likewise, those respondents whose confidence in the US Supreme Court declined from 2020 to 2022 were more likely to shift from voting for Republican to Democratic congressional candidates. We provide direct empirical evidence that changes in support for the Supreme Court, a nonpartisan branch of the federal government, are implicated in partisan voting behavior in another branch of government. We explore the implications of these findings for prevalent assumptions about how economic conditions influence voting, as well as for the relationship between the judiciary and electoral politics.

Local passion and national apathy: investigating the phenomenon of selective voting behaviour

ABSTRACT Although there is a substantial difference in turnout between local and national elections, a significant number of citizens are locally mobilised yet they do not vote in national elections. While some previous studies have predominantly attributed this pattern to a municipal size, this study ascertains that locally bound motives and attitudinal factors also exert influence, independent of the municipality size. The research reveals that citizens who report personal acquaintance with local councillors also express an overall satisfaction with the local election outcomes and perceive a notable change in council politics are more inclined to vote only in local elections. Although displaying lower support of central government, these locally mobilised citizens exhibit greater satisfaction with the state of democracy and local political dynamics in comparison to non-voters. Consequently, these significant findings offer an optimistic outlook from a democratic theory perspective.

Is unequal representation the consequence of different voting behavior across income groups?

Extant literature documents the unequal representation of the interests of low- and high-income groups in democracies. One potential explanation for this phenomenon is the electoral behavior of different groups of voters. If affluent citizens base their vote decisions more strongly on policy considerations, while the less affluent rely on forms of electoral support that are less strongly conditioned by policy or performance evaluations, this pattern could influence the ability and willingness of political elites to represent low-income citizens. We make use of the integrated CSES election data to study how, across a diverse set of countries, income levels affect the criteria voters rely on when voting: namely, proximity voting, valence considerations, and economic voting. Overall, our findings show no meaningful differences in voting criteria across income groups, nor consequences for party systems. These findings have important implications for the literature on unequal representation, as they rule out the common narrative that the affluent cast more sophisticated vote decisions.

Influence of online searches for campaign messages on voting behaviour in Ghana

This study ascertained the influence of political party campaign message information search on the behaviour of voters in Ghana. The researchers however conducted this study by applying the perspectives of consumer behaviour to voter behavior with an objective to examine how the behaviour of consumers (voters) is influenced by the search for information on election campaign messages in their decision-making process. The examination used quantitative research to determine the relationship between voting behaviour and political campaign with the cross-sectional survey deployed to collect data from 7203 voters in Accra. These voters were selected through random sampling and the data was collected with questionnaires. The study measured voter (consumer) behaviour from three dimensions namely psychological, social and personal behaviour. The Structural Equation Model (SEM) in Amos was used for the analysis to establish the relationship between the variables. The study revealed that significant positive relationship between campaign message information search and voter psychological behaviour. Likewise, information searches on campaign messages significantly influence voters' social and personal behaviour. The study concluded that the behaviour of voters is influenced by their search for content or details of political campaign messages. The study concludes that there are opportunities for political marketing and change in voter behaviour. Still, sufficient attention should be given to developing and deploying a consumer behaviour model that recognises the challenges and changes with political-marketing campaigning for vote in Ghana Political parties/candidates should make available adequate information on their campaign promises and manifestos to voters to influence their behaviour towards winning their votes. This study has contributed significantly to the knowledge of literature in the field of political marketing. Nonetheless, further studies should be conducted in other jurisdictions other than Ghana to validate the model or test the hypotheses.

UNVEILING THE IMPACT AND PROSPECTS OF AI ON INDIAN VOTING BEHAVIOUR

UNVEILING THE IMPACT AND PROSPECTS OF AI ON INDIAN VOTING BEHAVIOUR

Winners and losers: Emotional shifts across elections are conveyed by a politician's smile.

The human smile can convey both rewarding and affiliative social intent and thus has significant utility in politics, where the ability to bond with and reassure voters is vital to electoral success. We examine experimental evidence from the 2019 UK general election to investigate the influence of a politician's reward or affiliative smile on voter emotions. It was hypothesised that the winner's affiliative smile would engender positive affect across all partisan groups compared to the winner's reward smile display. Participants from a nationally representative sample were shown campaign footage containing both types of smiles from the leaders of the main competing political parties both before and after the election. Increases in happiness and affinity were revealed across all partisan groups when shown footage of the eventual winner's affiliative smile; at the same time, supporters of losing parties indicated a decrease in negative affect. Affinity has been shown to increase civic engagement. Thus, we conclude that affiliative smiles displayed by leading candidates during the campaign likely acted as a mechanism to align voter behaviour with the dominant political message.

Beyond Borders: Unveiling the Media Representation of Zuzana Čaputová in Czech Online News

This study underscores the influential capacity of transborder media communication in transcending geographical and political barriers, profoundly influencing political inclinations, voter behaviour, and public sentiment in neighbouring countries. The study specifically evaluates the portrayal of Zuzana Čaputová in Czech online media. Transborder communication between linguistically similar nations can result in distinctive representations of political figures from adjacent countries. Therefore, analysing this communication is crucial for comprehending the dynamics between Slovakia and the Czech Republic. It also contributes to a broader understanding of transregional media narratives in Central and Eastern Europe. The research identified various thematic lines in the media representation of Čaputová, including comparison, fashion, personality, values, expertise, and a line of defenders, where commentators counteract hoaxes. Additionally, the study acknowledges that media framing is not gender-neutral and examines transborder communication from this perspective. The discussion provides a comprehensive overview of Čaputová’s media representation and her perceived role in the public and political spheres.

The geography of educational voting: Understanding where individuals with similar qualifications vote differently across Britain

This study offers a novel account of the geographical variation in the association of educational attainment with electoral behaviour. It estimates multilevel random-coefficient models using survey data from the British Election Study Internet Panel and data on constituency characteristics to explore the extent to which, and reasons why, the voting behaviours of individuals with identical qualifications varied across different types of parliamentary constituencies in British general elections from 2015 to 2019. We find the geography of this educational cleavage has not been evenly distributed in recent years. While the individual-level association of educational attainment and vote choice indeed varied geographically at the 2015, 2017 and 2019 general elections, there is only limited evidence to suggest that similarly educated individuals voted differently in constituencies with low and high densities of persons with high levels of education. Rather, our findings suggest that constituency left behind-ness (broadly defined) is the most important factor in explaining the spatial heterogeneity of education-based voting in recent British general elections.

How and why aversive personality is expressed in political preferences.

Political orientation reflects beliefs, opinions, and values that are, at least in part, rooted in stable interindividual differences. Whereas evidence has accumulated with regard to the relevance of basic personality dimensions, especially concerning the sociocultural dimension of political ideology, less attention has been paid to the more specific dispositional tendency to assign a higher weight to one's own utility above others' (i.e., socially aversive personality), which is likely to play a pivotal role concerning the economic dimension of political ideology in particular. In three studies with over 66,000 participants from 38 countries, we show that individuals with elevated levels in aversive personality tend to endorse more right-wing political orientations in terms of a single left-right dimension, hold relevant ideological beliefs tied to both sociocultural and economic conservatism, and report corresponding electoral voting behavior. We further provide support for the idea that this overlap between a dispositional tendency toward aversive behavior and a right-wing political orientation can be attributed to shared belief systems. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Generational (re)alignment: emerging issues and new voters in Western Europe

Voting behaviour in Western Europe has become increasingly structured by attitudes towards socio-cultural issues, such as immigration and European unification. This study examines whether generational differences affect this form of realignment. By combining data from the ESS and the CHES, it explores party–voter alignment on specific issues across 17 West European party systems from 2002 to 2020. ‘Age-Period-Cohort’ (APC) analyses demonstrate that younger generations are more strongly aligned than older generations on immigration, LGBTQ+-rights, the environment and left–right placement, but not on the EU and income redistribution. The results also show over-time increases in issue alignment for three of the six issues, but these period effects are more country-specific than the generational differences. Consequently, generational replacement can be expected to increase party–voter alignment on the left–right dimension and (some) new issues.

A World Outside the Classroom: Understanding Faculty Perspectives on Electoral Engagement in the Classroom

Colleges and universities serve as vital bridges between the state and citizens, providing fertile ground for nurturing democratic participation among students through the cultivation of civic knowledge, skills, and attitudes collectively known as electoral engagement. However, faculty members, responsible for implementing such initiatives, may not always view electoral engagement as essential to their curriculum. This study explores faculty motivations and reservations regarding electoral engagement in classrooms. Leveraging a novel data set of faculty responses, the research reveals at least two important findings. First, faculty members express greater interest when supported by colleagues, department chairs, and students within their institutions. Second, faculty confidence and past voting behavior influence their interest in electoral engagement initiatives. The article concludes with a brief exploration of how these insights can empower faculty nationwide to effectively nurture students as active contributors to our democratic process.

Corruption Disclosure and Electoral Accountability System: Reducing Political Corruption

This literature review explores how corruption exposure affects voter behavior, political dynamics, and the fate of current political parties and politicians. This demonstrates the importance of strengthening electoral accountability in maintaining democracy, combating corruption, and improving political systems. Research has found that the disclosure of corrupt practices significantly impacts voter behavior, as it may lead to a decrease in support for current political parties and politicians affected by corruption. In addition, exposing dereliction of duty is an important tool in combating political corruption, making the election process more transparent and accountable. Therefore, this review emphasizes the crucial role of exposing corrupt behavior in shaping voter behavior, holding politicians accountable, and maintaining the integrity of democratic systems under electoral accountability systems. This proves that strengthening electoral accountability plays an important role in maintaining democratic integrity and promoting responsive political models and provides an important foundation for future research in this field. Promote transparency in the election process and strengthen the implementation of accountability policies.

Who Do the Socially Mobile Vote For? A Longitudinal Analysis of Intergenerational Mobility and Political Preferences

Social mobility has become a key public policy issue across the Western world. But who do the upwardly and downwardly mobile vote for? Does their voting behaviour remain the same as their peers in their social origin class, or does it quickly assimilate to mimic the behaviour of others at their social destination? This article presents new, longitudinal evidence on this issue, documenting how the link between social origin, destination and political voting behaviour varies during adult life. We find individuals who move up the social ladder are more likely to vote Conservative than individuals who remain in the same social class as their parents. Overall, an individual’s social origin and social destination seem to be equally important for how they vote. Yet we find no evidence that social mobility is associated with political voting preferences per se; rather upwardly mobile individuals’ greater propensity to vote for the Conservatives is driven by the joint impact of their social origin and destination.

Exploring The Social Factors Influencing Voting Behavior in 2019 National Assembly Elections in Gombe State, Nigeria

Exploring The Social Factors Influencing Voting Behavior in 2019 National Assembly Elections in Gombe State, Nigeria

Exploring the link between public health compliance and voting patterns in the 2020 U.S. presidential election

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted society and politics, particularly in the context of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Public officials' unpreparedness resulted in skepticism regarding government responses. Additionally, health inequities and political polarization profoundly influenced voter attitudes and behaviors.MethodsThis study employs statistical techniques to examine voting patterns, leveraging data from the 2021 African American COVID-19 Vaccine Polls (AACVP) alongside the 2020 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (CMPS). Specifically, it utilizes logistic regression and t-tests to dissect and understand the dichotomous electoral decisions made by voters between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the U.S. presidential election. The research analyzes the nuances of the electorate's behavior by considering many factors that may influence the binary vote decision.ResultsT-tests revealed significant mean differences in voting patterns based on public health compliance, with less compliant individuals more likely to vote for Trump and more compliant individuals favoring Biden. Logistic regression analysis showed a substantial statistical correlation between public health compliance and voting preferences, independent of confounding variables.DiscussionThe study confirmed that public health compliance during the pandemic impacted voting behavior, with a divide based on attitudes toward health measures. This reflected broader societal divisions, suggesting that public health behaviors are linked with political identities. Additionally, media sources and racial identity significantly influenced voting decisions.

Surveying immigrant-origin voters in a post-migrant society: The first Immigrant German Election Study, 2017

This paper introduces the Immigrant German Election Study (IMGES) as the first survey that explicitly targeted immigrant-origin voters in Germany. IMGES fills the gap of insufficient data in the field of immigrant-origin voters with a combination of proven and novel survey measures of the electoral behavior of people with a background from either Türkiye or from the former Soviet Union or its successor states. The study was carried out in a post-election, cross-sectional survey in 2017. Its compatibility with the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), the Ethnic Minority British Election Study (EMBES), and the Dutch Ethnic Minority Election Study (DEMES) allows for in-depth comparative analyses between immigrant-origin voters and natives across different countries. In addition to standard measures of electoral behavior, the data include measures of immigrant-specific factors relevant to voting behavior. Moreover, the dataset is not limited to voting behavior in Germany, it also includes transnational voting behavior in the respective countries of origin.

Continuity and change in Turkish politics: economic and behavioural explanations of democratic backsliding

ABSTRACT This paper introduces a special issue focusing on the intricacies of Turkey’s party system and the evolution of Turkish party competition amid democratic challenges. The introduction provides a brief overview of each paper in this special issue, which delves into the relationship between economic factors and voter behavior, offering insights into the continued dominance of the ruling party. While doing so, the special issue specifically examines the 2023 Turkish General elections, presenting alternative perspectives on how the incumbent party maintains its electoral success.