Voter Turnout Research Articles

Political Participation of the Millennial Generation in General Elections: The Influence of Education, Social Media, and Economic Factors

The Millennial generation, comprising individuals born between the early 1980s and mid-1990s, represents a significant demographic group with the potential to shape the political landscape. This research investigates the multifaceted determinants of Millennial political participation in general elections, seeking to unravel the complexities that drive or hinder their engagement in the democratic process. Employing a mixed-methods approach encompassing surveys and interviews, this study examines key factors influencing Millennial political behavior. The research findings reveal several pivotal insights; Firstly, education emerges as a critical catalyst for Millennial political participation, emphasizing the importance of civic education programs in nurturing political awareness. Secondly, social media platforms, such as Twitter and Facebook, have assumed a transformative role, serving as potent tools for information dissemination, mobilization, and interactive political discourse. Thirdly, economic challenges, notably student loan debt and economic insecurity, persist as formidable barriers, necessitating targeted policies to alleviate these concerns and encourage political engagement. Fourthly, trust in political institutions emerges as a motivating factor, highlighting the significance of transparency and accountability in enhancing Millennial voter turnout. Lastly, non-electoral civic activities, including volunteering and community service, serve as precursors to broader political involvement, underscoring the value of encouraging civic engagement. The implications drawn from these findings reverberate through the realms of policy, political strategy, and societal empowerment. Recommendations include investments in civic education, leveraging social media for political outreach, addressing economic disparities, and fostering civic engagement. As Millennial political participation continues to evolve, this research underscores the importance of empirical analysis in informing effective strategies and policies. It serves as a clarion call for collective action, urging stakeholders across academia, politics, and civil society to empower Millennials as active and informed participants in the democratic process. This research contributes not only to academic knowledge but also to the practical endeavor of strengthening democratic foundations, ensuring that the voices of Millennials resonate within the corridors of governance, and shaping the trajectory of our collective political future

The Influence of Cultural Values and Norms on Political Attitudes and Behavior: A Sociological Study

This paper examines the complex interrelationship between cultural forces and political attitudes and behaviors. Through an extensive literature review, expert interviews, and rigorous content analysis, the research illuminates how cultural values, beliefs, and norms fundamentally shape individuals' political ideologies, policy preferences, partisan affiliations, civic engagement, and voting patterns. Findings demonstrate adherence to traditional cultural values like religiosity and nationalism predicts conservative political orientations, while progressive values like secularism and multiculturalism predict liberal orientations. The study also uncovers how politicians and media strategically exploit cultural symbols and narratives to frame issues and manipulate public opinion to their advantage. Prevailing cultural attitudes regarding duties and efficacy as citizens are shown to influence voter turnout and election outcomes. Promising reforms to address cultural biases include increasing access to diverse perspectives and critical civic education, promoting inclusive institutions and cross-cultural dialogue, and fostering political literacy. This research underscores the need for democratic processes and policies attuned to diverse cultural standpoints to pursue shared interests equitably. It concludes that comprehending the cultural antecedents of political behaviors and interpretations is essential for just, effective governance in pluralistic societies.

Free public transit and voter turnout

Transportation costs are an under-studied barrier to political participation. In many elections worldwide, subsidies to voter transportation are already provided or are under discussion. However, these types of incentives have not been rigorously evaluated. Here we examine possibly the world's largest-ever intervention to lower these costs, the adoption of a fare-free public transit policy in Brazil during the 2022 national election, when about half of Brazilian voters were granted the right to use public transit for free on election days. However, while some cities adopted the benefit for both rounds of the election, others adopted it only for the second round. Using an event study design, we exploit this difference in adoption timing to examine the policy's causal impact on voter turnout rates and human mobility levels. We find that fare-free transit increased ridership between 7.2% and 17.5% on election days, however, we estimate a precise and robust null effect of the policy on voter turnout (Coef. −0.03p.p. with standard error of 0.22p.p.). Our results illustrate that monetary transport costs may not always be a critical factor behind non-participation. Although reducing transportation costs improves access to polling places, we show that even a full transit subsidy may not be sufficient to increase voter turnout.

The Transformation of Arab Politics and Arab Voter Behavior in Israeli Elections (1999-2009)

This article delves into the transformative decade between 1999 and 2009, exploring the intricate web of Jewish-Arab relations in Israel and the consequential impact of Jewish-Arab tensions on Arab politics and Arab voter behavior in Israeli elections. During this decade, internal factors, such as generational shift, leadership changes, and political pluralism, played a pivotal role in reshaping the societal landscape in the Arab sector. On the other hand, external factors, including the collapse of the Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation process and the eruption of the Second Intifada, intensified the predicament of Israeli citizens of Arab origin, amplifying their national identity dilemma. The primary objective of this study is to analyze voting patterns within the Arab sector during the elections of 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006, and 2009, thereby highlighting the profound political implications of the Jewish-Arab tensions on Arab political engagement and voting behaviors. By doing so, this research provides insights into the changing patterns of Arab votes and their impact on the broader political landscape of Israel. The findings reveal that the growing social marginalization and disconnection from the Jewish sector significantly influenced the Arab sector's electoral participation. This period witnessed a decline in Arab voter turnout and a shift in support from left-wing Jewish-Zionist parties to Arab parties, paradoxically contributing to the electoral performances of both Arab parties and right-wing Jewish-Zionist parties.

An Agent-Based Simulation Platform for a Safe Election: From Design to Simulation

Managing the logistics and safety of an election system, from delivering voting machines to the right locations at the right time to ensuring that voting lines remain reasonable in length is a complex problem due to the scarcity of resources, especially human poll workers, and the impact of human behavior and disrupting events on the performance of this critical system. These complexities grew with the need for physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic coinciding with multiple key national elections, including the 2020 general presidential election in the USA. In this paper, we propose a digital clone platform leveraging agent-based simulation to model and experiment with resource allocation decisions and voter turnout fluctuations and facilitate “what-if” scenario testing of any election. As a use case, we consider three different concurrent polling location problems, namely, resource allocation, polling layout, and management. The main aim is to reduce voter waiting time and provide visibility of different scenarios for polling and state-level managers. We explain the proposed simulation platform based on Fulton County for the 2020 presidential US election. Fulton County had 238 polling locations in 2020, which provided publicly available voter turnout data. The developed platform realistically models at the county level and at specific locations, suggesting the possible allocation of finite resources among locations in the county and the configuration of each location, accounting for physical, legal, and technical constraints. Multiple realistic scenarios were developed and embedded into the simulation platform to evaluate and verify the different systems. The system performance and key attributes of the election system, such as waiting time, resource utilization, and layout safety, were tested and validated.

Crowded Out: The Effects of Concurrent Elections on Political Engagement, Candidate Evaluation, and Campaign Learning in the United States

ABSTRACT Holding multiple elections simultaneously, also known as concurrent elections, is well known to benefit electoral systems by increasing the rate of voter turnout. Essentially, the public becomes more willing to participate in voting because they can vote for more offices, and more prominent offices, at once and thus have a greater influence upon the functioning of government in a more efficient manner. However, very little is known about what happens with the electorate outside of the simple increase in voting. Just because citizens choose to vote, it does not mean that they actually pay attention to all the campaigns or feel that their participation is valuable. Using 20 years of American National Election Study survey data, and focusing primarily on the relatively low-salience House of Representatives, this paper examines the psychological effects of concurrent elections in the United States. It concludes that, while concurrent elections do boost turnout, lower-salience candidates receive less attention during concurrent elections, leading the public to rate them more negatively and know less about them. Higher-salience office candidates avoid these negative consequences. Thus there is a trade-off with concurrent elections – more people tend to vote when multiple offices are contested simultaneously but those voters also tend to focus on the higher offices and ignore the bottom of the ballot.

Temporal multicriteria evaluation of the categories proposed by the ‘Democracy Index’ of the countries: a perspective based on the DARIA-TOPSIS Method

This article analyzes the criteria of the ‘Democracy Index’ in countries, from 2017-2022, published by ‘The Economist’, aiming for an objective and comparative evaluation using the DARIA-TOPSIS method for temporal multicriteria assessment. The DARIA-TOPSIS method identified that among the top five ranked countries, the four most democratic ones are Nordic countries, with only New Zealand included in third place. Furthermore, the social and institutional trust, crucial for citizen participation observed in C_3 (Political Participation), reflects the high quality of democracy. These countries consistently exhibit high voter turnout rates and foster an active civil society culture in political decisions, as identified in C_1 (Electoral Process and Pluralism). Moreover, the variability of utility function values was better captured by the DARIA-TOPSIS method compared to a ranking based on average performance values (TOPSIS). However, the final order obtained by the methods generally coincides with or is very close.

Особенности, тенденции и факторы развития различных форм осуществления населением местного самоуправления в регионах Европейского Севера России

The goal of this article is to study the features and trends in the development of various forms of local governance in Russia, with a particular focus on the regions falling within the European North of Russia (ENR). To achieve this goal, a combination of general research methods (analysis, synthesis, generalization, case study) and applied methods (such as grouping analysis, economic and statistical analysis, and sociological research methods) were used. The study relies on official statistics from Rosstat, reports from the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation, election and referendum data from the Vybory (Elections) system, and the results of questionnaire surveys of municipal leaders in the Vologda Oblast conducted from 2007 to 2022. The scientific novelty of the study lies in its assessment of the influence of various factors (territorial urbanization level and overall municipal development) on the nuances of residents' electoral participation from 2018 to 2022, using ENR municipalities as a case study. The research revealed that elections lacking a legally established voter turnout threshold witnessed notably low voter participation rates (ranging from 28 % to 41 % in the elections of senior officials of ENR regions from 2019 to 2022, 40% to 46% in the elections of State Duma deputies in 2021, and 8% to 71% in the elections of rural settlement heads). In most cases, municipalities with predominantly rural populations demonstrated higher election turnout rates and stronger support for winning candidates, a pattern that also holds in low-development areas within the Vologda Oblast. The article also discusses how local governors in the Vologda Oblast assess civil engagement from 2012 to 2022 and offers recommendations for regional-level monitoring of diverse forms of population involvement in territorial development, with an emphasis on local public governance.

The Global Dataset on Turnout (GD-Turnout)

In this research note, we introduce the Global Dataset on Turnout (GD-Turnout), which includes information on 3217 elections for 190 countries from 1945 to 2020. GD-Turnout is benchmarked to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) dataset on elections, the current most popular voter turnout dataset. The novel GD-Turnout dataset specifically defines its unit of analysis for countries, includes 675 more elections than IDEA, and all of IDEA's rounds, where information was available. GD-Turnout employed a transparent, two-phase data-gathering process, including new, previously unconsidered information about each election. To our knowledge, it is the most comprehensive voter turnout dataset and is freely available at Harvard's Dataverse, offering a new source for voting and elections research.

The Political Costs of Austerity

Abstract Using a novel regional database covering over 200 elections in several European countries, this paper provides new empirical evidence on the political consequences of fiscal consolidations. To identify exogenous reductions in regional public spending, we use a Bartik-type instrument that combines regional sensitivities to changes in national government expenditures with narrative national consolidation episodes. Fiscal consolidations lead to a significant increase in extreme parties' vote share, lower voter turnout, and a rise in political fragmentation. We highlight the close relationship between detrimental economic developments and voters' support for extreme parties by showing that austerity induces severe deconomic costs through lowering GDP, employment, private investment, and wages. Austerity-driven recessions amplify the political costs of economic downturns considerably by increasing distrust in the political environment.

Still proud at the polls? LGBT+ rights don't dilute the sexuality turnout gap

AbstractRecent research has shown that sexual and/or gender minority voters are prone to mobilizing when LGBT+ issues are on the political agenda. This increased level of political engagement is attributed to the experience of discrimination, understood both in legal and social terms, which spurs LGBT+ individuals to participate with the aim of advancing their rights. However, a crucial question remains unanswered: do these gaps in participation persist in contexts where core LGBT+ rights are protected? Drawing from comprehensive and verified data on the population of Sweden, this study finds evidence of a positive and sustained sexuality‐driven voter turnout gap across multiple elections. This gap manifests itself both shortly and a decade after the enactment of same‐sex marriage and shows no tangible signs of abating. In addition to improving our knowledge of political participation patterns among sexual minorities, these findings underscore the potential role of minority rights protection as a mechanism to ensure enduring inclusion of social minority groups within democratic processes.

The Stubborn Unresponsiveness of Youth Voter Turnout to Civic Education: Quasi-Experimental Evidence From State-Mandated Civics Tests

Youth voter turnout remains stubbornly low and unresponsive to civic education. Rigorous evaluations of the effects of adopting civics tests for high school graduation by some states on youth voter turnout remain limited. We estimate the impact of a recent, state-mandated civics test policy—the Civics Education Initiative (CEI)—on youth voter turnout by exploiting spatial and temporal variation in the adoption of CEI across states. Using nationally representative data from the 1996 to 2020 Current Population Survey and a difference-in-differences analysis, we find that CEI does not significantly affect youth voter turnout. Our null results, largely insensitive to a variety of alternative specifications and robustness checks, provide evidence regarding the lack of efficacy of civics test policies when it comes to youth voter participation.

Correction to “Do subtle linguistic interventions priming a social identity as a voter have outsized effects on voter turnout? Evidence from a new replication experiment”

Correction to “Do subtle linguistic interventions priming a social identity as a voter have outsized effects on voter turnout? Evidence from a new replication experiment”

TV in times of political uncertainty: Evidence from the 2017 elections in Kenya

What is the impact of television during periods of political crisis? This paper examines the nullification of the 2017 presidential election in Kenya, followed by the organization of a repeat ballot, which sparked widespread protests and heightened uncertainty. Leveraging exogenous variations in television signal expansion since 2013, I assess the influence of television reception on voter turnout in both the initial and repeat ballots, as well as on electoral protests. The findings reveal that television did not significantly impact turnout in the first election; however, its effects varied across political camps in the repeat election. Turnout decreased by 3pp in pro-opposition areas but was a 7pp larger in pro-government strongholds. I contend that television played an informative role during a period characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Employing text analysis methods, I document the convergence of news content before the recall election, with a particular emphasis on the ongoing protests. Furthermore, the distinctive tone of coverage by the state-owned TV station may have bolstered the call for participation in the second poll.

The consequences of service delivery for voter turnout in Nigeria

Scholars have often found socioeconomic factors like income and education to be determinants of political participation in advanced democracies. However, past studies have claimed that in emerging democracies and hybrid regimes like those in Africa, education and income do not predict participation. If so, what determines participation in the region? This study examines the determinants of citizen engagement and political participation in sub-Saharan Africa; and argues that political attitudes differ depending on who provides the basic goods and services. Specifically, non-state provision of goods reduces political participation and leads to a weak state. I argue that when the state provides, citizens are more likely to participate; whereas when non-state actors provide, citizens are less likely to participate in politics. I also examine the effects of various non-state actors. This paper draws on data from an original survey experiment and fieldwork in Nigeria. This paper sheds light on subnational governance, democratization and citizen-state relationships. Further, the project contributes to the literature on political institutions and institutional analysis of public service delivery.

The Vicious Relationship between Apathetic Political Behaviour and Citizen Quiescence in Nairobi County

Voter apathy is a growing phenomenon in Kenya. Voter turnout since the Constitution 2010 was enacted has been falling drastically. In the 2013 general elections, the voter turnout was 86%, and the turnout dropped to 78% in the August 2017 elections. Further, in the 2022 general elections, numbers dropped to 64%. More significantly, the number of young people registering to vote in the 2022 general elections dropped by 5.27% compared to 2017. This apathetic political behaviour among Kenyan voters has far-reaching implications not only for democratic practices in Kenya but in governance, particularly for demand for public accountability. In this study, the researchers aimed to establish whether a relationship exists between apathetic political behaviour and citizen quiescence (citizen inaction) in demanding public accountability. Citizen quiescence is operationalised to mean general disinterest, lethargy, or unwillingness to participate in civic duties. The researchers hypothesised a direct relationship between apathetic political culture and citizen quiescence due to weak institutions and diminishing public trust in Kenya. To establish this relationship, the researchers surveyed a sample of 100 respondents drawn from Nairobi City County using a multi-stage sampling technique. The test results for linear regression analysis were R(98) = 0.841, p<0.05, R2 .703, demonstrating a positive linear relationship between apathy and citizen quiescence among Kenyans. In other words, as citizens became more apathetic in participating in democratic processes, their quiescence in demanding public accountability also increased. Besides, it was established that all factors held constant; apathetic political behaviour could explain 70.3% of citizen quiescence in Kenya at a 95% confidence level. The significance of this study was to demonstrate the necessity of civic engagement in public accountability to reduce pilferage and misappropriation of public resources

Definition and Measurement of Corruption in the States of the European Union and the Use of Directions for Assessing Corruption Actions in Ukraine

The article reveals issues related to corruption, which has a negative impact on social security, public spending, budget deficit, tax collection, vulnerable employment, gender equality and the use of EU funds, and approaches to its measurement. It is noted that corruption is associated with an increase in the level of organized crime, a weakening of the rule of law, a decrease in voter turnout in parliamentary elections and trust in state institutions. It is noted that the pandemic and subsequent socio-economic crises called into question the adequacy of the existing mechanisms for controlling the unprecedented volume of finances within the framework of the EU recovery plan. In this complex context, legal and policy frameworks as well as EU instruments that assess anti-corruption efforts are important at all times. But at the same time, all EU member states, solving this problem, have different approaches and methods of its grouping and measurement. According to the conducted studies, there are currently no corruption-free zones in the EU, as all member states have touched this problem, albeit to varying degrees. The concept of corruption is defined as a broader socio-economic problem that covers a number of issues, namely: conflict of interests; clientelism; various forms of favoritism; influence peddling and other similar forms of behavior. A study of modern statistics of corruption offenses as of the first half of 2023 was conducted, which shows positive developments in Ukraine in the fight against corruption, but at the same time, the rate of violations of financial control requirements remains extremely high. Given the difficulty of directly measuring corruption, various (indirect) indicators have been developed based on the perception or experience of this phenomenon and an attempt to quantify the cost of corruption in the EU. It is noted that the main international study is the Global Corruption Barometer (GCB), which collects data on the experience and perception of corruption around the world since 2003. In 2021, the Global Corruption Barometer (GCB) – EU focused on measurements in EU Member States, which confirmed the widespread perception of corruption in Europe and showed that EU citizens are concerned about the close ties between business and politics. Therefore, in the article, the author examines issues related to the measurement of corruption for the possibility of more accurately forecasting the development of this negative phenomenon in the future and taking appropriate preventive measures.

The Political Interest Of Millenial Generation

This article is based on the existence of researchers' participation in the democracy system in Indonesia, especially in Garut District. The study aims to determine the voter participation of three generations (generation X, generation Y, and generation Z) from the perspective of lack of political interest and dissatisfaction with candidates. This study uses descriptive and verification methods with a quantitative approach. With a sample of 145 respondents spread out of 3 villages (Banjarwangi Village, Jayabakti Village, and Bojong Village), the location of the research is the region with the largest population and voting rights in the Banjarwungi District District of Garut. Data analysis method: path analysis using SPSS software The results of the study showed the magnitude of the total influence of ignorance or lack of political interest and dissatisfaction with the selection of candidates against electoral participation in Generation X was shown by the size of the determination coefficient (r2) = 0.488, or 46.7%; in Generation Y, the greatness of the factor of determination (R2) = 0.510, or 51%; and in Generation Z, the measurement of the deterrence coefficient (R2) = 0.793, or 72.3%. So it was concluded that the model formed belongs to the strong category, so in this study, the variable of ignorance, lack of political interest, or dissatisfaction with the choice was used to measure the participation of voters in the Banjarwangi Garut district.

Understanding the disability voting gap in the UK

Using nationally representative longitudinal data from Understanding Society we explore the relationship between disability and political participation in the UK. More specifically, we examine the determinants of the ‘disability voting gap’, and assess how it varies by the severity, type and chronicity of disability. After accounting for demographic characteristics, the disability voting gap across UK General Elections between 2010 and 2019 is found to be 6.2 percentage points. More than half of this gap is explained by the channels of resources and recruitment, with evidence of a residual disability gap consistent with additional disability-specific barriers to participation. We find a larger disability voting gap for those with more severe disability, disabilities relating to mental health and chronic disabilities. Applying panel data methods, however, we find no evidence that transitions in disability status are related to changes in voter turnout.

The Mobilizing Effect of Party System Polarization. Evidence From Europe

Does party system polarization mobilize voters? Polarization is increasingly shaping democratic competition across Europe. While often perceived to be negative, polarization can be an effective remedy against voter disengagement. This paper investigates two distinct, but often conflated mechanisms, which could explain why polarization leads to mobilization. Spatial polarization of parties diversifies electoral options at the ballot, while affective polarization mobilizes based on emotional considerations. This article then shows the link between polarization and turnout across 22 European countries. The results are complemented by a difference-in-differences analysis of German local elections. However, voting results alone do not inform about the mechanism at play. Survey data is used to show that negative affect appears to be the main driver of voter participation. Party polarization thus has ambivalent consequences for democracies: It mobilizes the electorate, but its effect is driven by negative emotions.