Voter Model Research Articles

Social clustering reinforces external influence on the majority opinion model

Public opinion is subject to peer interaction via social networks and external pressure from the media, advertising, and other actors. In this paper, we study the interaction between external and peer influence on the stochastic opinion dynamics of a majority vote model. We introduce a model where agents update their opinions based on the combined influence of their local neighbourhood (peers) and an external actor in the transition rates. In the first model, the external influence is only felt by agents non-aligned with the external actor (“push strategy”). In the second model, agents are affected by external influence, independently of their opinions (“nudging strategy”). In both cases, the external influence increases the possible macroscopic outcomes. These outcomes are determined by the chosen influence strategy. We also find that the social network structure affects the opinion dynamics, with social clustering positively reinforcing the external influence whereas degree heterogeneity weakens the external forces. These findings are relevant to businesses and policy making, helping to understand how groups of individuals collectively react to external actors.

The Collapse of Economic Voting Behaviour in Turkish Politics

For voters, phenomena such as increasing feelings of nationalism, the transformation of the perception of foreign powers into a political tool by the government, and the pursuit of polarisation politics by making the opposition enemies, push the importance of the economic crisis towards the back of the list of concerns for the voters. The general elections that took place between 1980 and 2018 are examined and the economic voting behaviour is explored in this study, especially in terms of periodical developments in Turkish politics. It is obvious that the economic voting model was an important determinant on the Turkish voters in the elections until 2008. However, ideological factors, strong leadership analysis or other indicators have started to replace the economic voting model in Turkey with serious political changes after 2008. In this context, this study is aimed to make an important contribution by filling the gap in the literature on economic voting in Turkish politics.

Non-destructive detection of apple fungal infection based on VIS/NIR transmission spectroscopy

The study is dedicated to developing a precise and efficient detection method specifically for identifying infections in apples caused by fungi. This type of infection not only damages the quality and value of apples but also poses potential risks to human health. By integrating four machine learning algorithms (LDA, KNN, LSSVM, and RF) into a Soft Voting model, as well as combining VIS/NIR transmission spectroscopy with CARS and SPA feature wavelength screening methods, this study significantly improves the accuracy of detecting fungal infections in apples. The research results demonstrate that the Soft Voting model achieves 93.33 % TPR, 100 % TNR, 100 % precision, and 98.75 % accuracy, which has far-reaching implications for safeguarding food safety, reducing economic losses, and enhancing the reputation of fruit farmers and merchants.

INVITED PAPER: INDIVIDUALLY RATIONAL DYNAMIC VOTE TRADING

In this paper, we characterize dynamic trading in a voting model. We show that a dynamic trading process, called the Pivot algorithm, may converge from an initial vote allocation to an allocation which (though Pareto optimal) is not individually rational even in the weakest sense. Then, we propose an intuitive dynamic process which, unlike the Pivot algorithm, always converges from any initial vote allocation to an individually rational Pareto optimal allocation, is Condorcet consistent, and avoids unnecessary vote trading (i.e. trading that does not change the outcome). From a policy perspective, our analysis implies that a vote trade may be permitted only if no voter has objection to the trade. Without such a policy, myopic voters may participate in vote trades that are either unnecessary or eventually make them worse-off.

Wie wichtig ist die europäische Integration für pro-europäische Wähler:innen in Zeiten der Politisierung?

AbstractThe increasing success of Eurosceptic parties and multiple European crises have fostered the politicization of European integration. However, we know little about how pro-European voters behave in this politicized environment. How important is European integration for pro-European voters? Do they care more about European integration when their vision of Europe is increasingly contested? The past 15 years have been characterized by persistent politicization of Eurosceptic parties and an increasing willingness of Europhile parties to engage with European topics. Moreover, European crises illustrated potential consequences of political disintegration. I expect these developments to be reflected in an increasing salience of European integration among pro-European voters. I derive salience estimates from spatial vote models encompassing four issue dimensions to track the development of salience. I use data from the European Social Survey, the European Election Studies, and the Chapel Hill Expert Survey, which cover many EU member states between 2008 and 2019. The results show that the salience of the European integration issue is most pronounced among Eurosceptic voters, while it is less pronounced among pro-European voters. However, in countries with a successful Eurosceptic party, it is more likely that the European integration issue also matters to pro-European voters. Moreover, there has been an increasing trend over time that European integration is not only important for anti- but also for pro-European voters across Europe.

Kinetics of the one-dimensional voter model with long-range interactions

The voter model is an extremely simple yet nontrivial prototypical model of ordering dynamics, which has been studied in great detail. Recently, a great deal of activity has focused on long-range statistical physics models, where interactions take place among faraway sites, with a probability slowly decaying with distance. In this paper, we study analytically the one-dimensional long-range voter model, where an agent takes the opinion of another at distance r with probability ∝r−α . The model displays rich and diverse features as α is changed. For α > 3 the behavior is similar to the one of the nearest-neighbor version, with the formation of ordered domains whose typical size grows as R(t)∝t1/2 until consensus (a fully ordered configuration) is reached. The correlation function C(r,t) between two agents at distance r obeys dynamical scaling with sizeable corrections at large distances r>r∗(t) , slowly fading away in time. For 2<α⩽3 violations of scaling appear, due to the simultaneous presence of two lengh-scales, the size of domains growing as t(α−2)/(α−1) , and the distance L(t)∝t1/(α−1) over which correlations extend. For α⩽2 the system reaches a partially ordered stationary state, characterised by an algebraic correlator, whose lifetime diverges in the thermodynamic limit of infinitely many agents, so that consensus is not reached. For a finite system escape towards the fully ordered configuration is finally promoted by development of large distance correlations. In a system of N sites, global consensus is achieved after a time T∝N2 for α > 3, T∝Nα−1 for 2<α⩽3 , and T∝N for α⩽2 .

Universality of opinions disappearing in sociophysical models of opinion dynamics: From initial multitude of opinions to ultimate consensus.

Possibility of reaching a consensus in social systems with strong initial fragmentation is one of the most interesting issues in sociophysics. It is also intriguing what the dynamics of such processes is. To address those problems, we performed computer simulations using well-established models of social opinion formation, namely, the voter, Sznajd, and Latané models. We investigated opinion dynamics in cases where the initial number of opinions is very large, equal to the number of actors (the voter and Latané models) or when every second actor has their own opinion (Sznajd model), with some variations on the update schemes, lattice topologies, effective ranges of interaction, and information noise levels. For all considered models, the number of opinions assumed by the actors is finally almost always reduced to only one. However, while the voter and Latané models exhibit a power-law time decrease in the number of opinions, the Sznajd model follows a complex three-stage behavior. We also demonstrated the mean/median time of reaching the consensus scales with system size according to a power law for voter and Sznajd models, while for the Latané model, this increase is even faster. Our results show that in the studied models, the consensus is possible, provided that a long enough and model-dependent time to reach this state is available.

Research on the adjustable range of air conditioner setting temperature considering user comfort

Abstract Traditional air conditioner (AC) temperature control typically sets temperature goals or establishes a uniform temperature range without considering industrial characteristics and user comfort preferences. As a result, users cannot achieve differentiated and precise control. This paper proposes a data-driven approach to predict the range of AC set temperatures under the constraint of user comfort. Firstly, a random forest feature importance screening method is employed to extract key factors influencing AC set temperatures. Secondly, a convolutional neural network (CNN) model is constructed to estimate AC set temperatures for five typical user categories. Finally, based on the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) model, user thermal comfort constraints are established to calculate the flexible adjustment range of AC for users. Through simulation analysis using real AC data from a certain region in Eastern China, the proposed standard for estimating user air conditioner set temperatures in this paper ensures a root mean square error not exceeding 0.5 and an average absolute percentage error not surpassing 1.8%. The obtained air conditioner adjustment ranges reflect the characteristics of users in different industries, meeting engineering requirements.

Tale of two emergent games: Opinion dynamics in dynamical directed networks.

Unidirectional social interactions are ubiquitous in real social networks whereas undirected interactions are intensively studied. We establish a voter model in a dynamical directed network. We analytically obtain the degree distribution of the evolving network at any given time. Furthermore, we find that the average degree is captured by an emergent game. However, we find that the fate of opinions is captured by another emergent game. Beyond expectation, the two emergent games are typically different due to the unidirectionality of the evolving networks. The Nash equilibrium analysis of the two games facilitates us to give the criterion under which the minority opinion with few disciples initially takes over the population eventually for in-group bias. Our work fosters the understanding of opinion dynamics ranging from methodology to research content.

When bases compete: A voting model of lexical conservatism

Abstract: This article examines lexical conservatism (Steriade 1997), a phenomenon whereby the distribution of stem allomorphs in a morphological paradigm influences the way that paradigm accommodates derived members. Specifically, a phonological alternation applies in a derived member only if an existing form is present elsewhere in the paradigm that offers the needed phonological material. Thus illústrable undergoes stress shift because the existing word illústrative contains the illústr- stem allomorph. In contrast, * irrígable is judged worse than írrigable , since there is no existing form in * irríg- . In four experiments with speakers of English and Mexican Spanish, I demonstrate that this dependency between paradigm structure and application of phonological processes generalizes to entirely novel words in a probabilistic manner. Further, I find that a broad range of stem allomorphs in a paradigm play a role in determining the form of the novel word, rather than only those that could reduce the markedness of the novel form, contra previous studies. I propose a novel grammatical model where bases get to ‘vote’ on the shape of the novel form: all stem allomorphs in a lexical entry stand in a correspondence relation to the novel form and exert their influence via multiple faithfulness constraints, which compete with standard markedness constraints in a probabilistic phonological grammar.

Emergence of Diverse Epidermal Patterns via the Integration of the Turing Pattern Model with the Majority Voting Model

Animal skin patterns are increasingly explained using the Turing pattern model proposed by Alan Turing. The Turing model, a self-organizing model, can produce spotted or striped patterns. However, several animal patterns exist that do not correspond to these patterns. For example, the body patterns of the ornamental carp Nishiki goi produced in Japan vary randomly among individuals. Therefore, predicting the pattern of offspring is difficult based on the parent fish. Such a randomly formed pattern could be explained using a majority voting model. This model is a type of cellular automaton model that counts the surrounding states and transitions to high-number states. Nevertheless, the utility of these two models in explaining fish patterns remains unclear. Interestingly, the patterns generated by these two models can be detected among very closely related species. It is difficult to think that completely different epidermal formation mechanisms are used among species of the same family. Therefore, there may be a basic model that can produce both patterns. Herein, the Turing pattern and majority voting method are represented using cellular automata, and the possibility of integrating these two methods is examined. This integrated model is equivalent to both models when the parameters are adjusted. Although this integrated model is extremely simple, it can produce more varied patterns than either one of the individual models. However, further research is warranted to determine whether this model is consistent with the mechanisms involved in the formation of animal fish patterns from a biological perspective.

Experimental evaluation of thermal environment built by decoupled radiant cooling system with low radiant cooling temperature

Decoupled radiant cooling system (DRCS)1, which utilizes an infrared-transparent membrane to isolate the radiant surface from the ambient air, can provide radiant cooling temperature below the dew point to prevent condensation and increase cooling capacity. However, whether the thermal environment built by DRCS with low radiant cooling temperature meets thermal comfort needs further investigation. This includes: 1) Do the environment parameters meet the comfort standard? 2) How do subjects evaluate the environment's comfort? Thus, environmental monitoring and questionnaire surveys were conducted to evaluate the thermal environment of DRCS in summer. Initially, the environment parameters were measured and 32 subjects were recruited to perform subjective and physiological response tests. Further, the environment was evaluated using thermal comfort models and thermal sensation votes. Finally, the applicability of the predicted mean vote (PMV) model was examined by comparing actual and predicted thermal sensations. The results confirmed that thermal environment built by DRCS satisfied the ASHRAE Standard criteria. The neutral operative temperature was around 24.8°C and the comfort environment was achieved between 23.3°C and 26.5°C. Moreover, PMV model has a high accuracy in predicting the thermal sensation of DRCS.

Aging properties of the voter model with long-range interactions

We investigate the aging properties of the one-dimensional voter model with long-range interactions in its ordering kinetics. In this system, an agent, Si=±1 , positioned at a lattice vertex i, copies the state of another one located at a distance r, selected randomly with a probability P(r)∝r−α . Employing both analytical and numerical methods, we compute the two-time correlation function G(r;t,s) ( t⩾s ) between the state of a variable Si at time s and that of another one, at distance r, at time t. At time t, the memory of an agent of its former state at time s, expressed by the autocorrelation function A(t,s)=G(r=0;t,s) , decays algebraically for α > 1 as [L(t)/L(s)]−λ , where L is a time-increasing coherence length and λ is the Fisher–Huse exponent. We find λ = 1 for α > 2, and λ=1/(α−1) for 1<α⩽2 . For α⩽1 , instead, there is an exponential decay, as in the mean field. Then, in contrast with what is known for the related Ising model, here we find that λ increases upon decreasing α. The space-dependent correlation G(r;t,s) obeys a scaling symmetry G(r;t,s)=g[r/L(s);L(t)/L(s)] for α > 2. Similarly, for 1<α⩽2 , one has G(r;t,s)=g[r/L(t);L(t)/L(s)] , where the length L regulating two-time correlations now differs from the coherence length as L∝Lδ , with δ=1+2(2−α) .

Polarization-induced stress in the noisy voter model

A new model for the dynamics of opinion formation is proposed and analyzed at the mean-field level. It can be regarded as a generalization of the noisy voter model in which agents update their binary states by copying others and by an intrinsic mechanism affected by the degree of polarization in the system. It also takes into account whether the agents enhance or reduce their intrinsic mechanism upon increasing polarization. Four phases or shapes of the steady-state probability of a fraction of agents in a given state are found (unimodal, bimodal, W and M). In the unimodal (resp. bimodal) phase, the copying (resp. intrinsic) mechanism is globally dominant, while in the W (resp. M) phase the copying (resp. intrinsic) mechanism is the relevant one close to the consensus states while it reduces its influence as approaching coexistence. In the thermodynamic limit, the bimodal and W phases disappear, while the unimodal and M phases prevail. The theoretical results, obtained analytically from the master equation, and the numerical simulations are in good agreement.

Opinion inertia and coarsening in the persistent voter model.

We consider the persistent voter model (PVM), a variant of the voter model (VM) that includes transient, dynamically induced zealots. Due to peer reinforcement, the internal confidence η_{i} of a normal voter increases in steps of size Δη. Once it surpasses a given threshold, it becomes a zealot. Its opinion remains frozen until enough interactions with the opposing opinion occur, resetting its confidence. No longer a zealot, the regular voter may change opinion once again. This mechanism of opinion inertia, though simplified, is responsible for an effective surface tension, and the PVM exhibits a crossover from a fluctuation-driven dynamics, as in the VM, to a curvature-driven one, akin to the Ising model at low temperature. The average time τ to attain consensus is nonmonotonic with respect to Δη and reaches a minimum at Δη_{min}. In this paper we elucidate the mechanisms that accelerate the system towards consensus close to Δη_{min}. Near the crossover at Δη_{min}, the intermediate region around the domains where the regular voters accumulate (the active region, AR) is large. The surface tension, albeit small, is sufficient to maintain the shape and reduce the domain fragmentation. The large size of the AR in the region of Δη_{min} has two important effects that accelerate the dynamics. First, it dislodges the zealots within the bulk of the domains. Secondly, it maximally suppresses the formation of slowly evolving stripes typical in Ising-like models. This suggests the importance of understanding the role of the AR, where opinion changes are facilitated, and the interplay between regular voters and zealots in disrupting polarized states.

RAZOR‐THIN MASS ELECTIONS WITH HIGH TURNOUT

AbstractWe argue that traditional voting models fail to fully explain the frequency of very close mass elections with high turnout. Instead, we model elections as a competition between incentive schemes to mobilize voters. We elucidate conditions under which parties might prefer close elections, as the potential to be pivotal motivates voters instead of exclusively costly incentives as in nonclose elections. We show that, under those conditions, better voter targeting results in tighter races and increased turnout. Furthermore, the smaller party often has a strong incentive to commit to strategies that ensure a close election.

Improving the thermal comfort model for students in naturally ventilated schools: Insights from a holistic study in the Mediterranean climate

The thermal comfort models defined in existing standards are usually ineffective in predicting students' mean thermal sensation. Accordingly, overheating and overcooling are frequently reported, which affect students’ well-being and cause unnecessary energy waste. Existing studies have not further explored the model improvement strategies for educational buildings. Hence, this research aims to improve the mean thermal sensation prediction model for students in naturally ventilated schools by incorporating correlated factors, based on a holistic field survey in the Mediterranean climate. The results indicate that the modified extended predicted mean vote of thermal adaptations reinforced around thermal neutrality has the highest accuracy among all validated adaptive predicted mean vote models. However, the performance of the adaptive predicted mean vote models is limited by the deficiencies of the original predicted mean vote model. The overall performance of the improved models was doubled after introducing the identified correlated factors, but the intrinsic error of the predicted mean vote index can slightly affect the models. As a result, the improved model built directly with the identified correlated factors achieved the best performance. Moreover, the potential of the machine learning models is limited by the volume of the mean thermal sensation vote data that can often be obtained, therefore conventional models such as multiple linear regression can be considered an effective and practical tool for developing the mean thermal sensation vote models. The findings of this study benefit the well-being of students and the energy conservation of educational buildings.

Speed-accuracy trade-offs in best-of-n collective decision making through heterogeneous mean-field modeling.

To succeed in their objectives, groups of individuals must be able to make quick and accurate collective decisions on the best option among a set of alternatives with different qualities. Group-living animals aim to do that all the time. Plants and fungi are thought to do so too. Swarms of autonomous robots can also be programed to make best-of-n decisions for solving tasks collaboratively. Ultimately, humans critically need it and so many times they should be better at it! Thanks to their mathematical tractability, simple models like the voter model and the local majority rule model have proven useful to describe the dynamics of such collective decision-making processes. To reach a consensus, individuals change their opinion by interacting with neighbors in their social network. At least among animals and robots, options with a better quality are exchanged more often and therefore spread faster than lower-quality options, leading to the collective selection of the best option. With our work, we study the impact of individuals making errors in pooling others' opinions caused, for example, by the need to reduce the cognitive load. Our analysis is grounded on the introduction of a model that generalizes the two existing models (local majority rule and voter model), showing a speed-accuracy trade-off regulated by the cognitive effort of individuals. We also investigate the impact of the interaction network topology on the collective dynamics. To do so, we extend our model and, by using the heterogeneous mean-field approach, we show the presence of another speed-accuracy trade-off regulated by network connectivity. An interesting result is that reduced network connectivity corresponds to an increase in collective decision accuracy.

Voting model prediction of nonlinear behavior for double-circumferential-slot air bearing system

Double-circumferential-slot air bearing (DCSAB) systems provide multidirectional supporting forces and have high stiffness, increasing the stability of instruments at high rotational speeds. However, DCSAB systems may exhibit chaotic motion because of a nonlinear pressure distribution within the gas film, supplied gas imbalances, or an inappropriate design. This study investigated the occurrence of nonperiodic motion in a DCSAB system by analyzing the dynamic response of systems with different rotor masses and bearing numbers. The dynamic trajectory, spectral response, bifurcation, Poincaré map, and maximum Lyapunov exponent were analyzed to identify chaotic behavior. Behavior was found to be highly sensitive to rotor mass and bearing number; the system exhibits chaotic behavior when the rotor mass has values in three intervals within 0.1–6.0 kg given a fixed bearing number of Λ = 3.8. To reduce the computational cost of predicting chaotic behavior, the maximum Lyapunov exponent was predicted using various machine learning models; a voting model combining random forest with XGBoost has the highest performance. The results can be used as a guideline for designing of DCASB systems for use in industrial applications.

Aging in Some Opinion Formation Models: A Comparative Study

Changes of mind can become less likely the longer an agent has adopted a given opinion state. This resilience or inertia to change has been called “aging”. We perform a comparative study of the effects of aging on the critical behavior of two standard opinion models with pairwise interactions. One of them is the voter model, which is a two-state model with a dynamic that proceeds via social contagion; another is the so-called kinetic exchange model, which allows a third (neutral) state, and its formed opinion depends on the previous opinions of both interacting agents. Furthermore, in the noisy version of both models, random opinion changes are also allowed, regardless of the interactions. Due to aging, the probability of changing diminishes with the age, and to take this into account, we consider algebraic and exponential kernels. We investigate the situation where aging acts only on pairwise interactions. Analytical predictions for the critical curves of the order parameters are obtained for the opinion dynamics on a complete graph, in good agreement with agent-based simulations. For both models considered, the consensus is optimized via an intermediate value of the parameter that rules the rate of decrease of the aging factor.