Voting Behavior Research Articles

The Prospect of Upward Housing Mobility: Future Homeownership Likelihood and Voter Behaviour in the United Kingdom

The Prospect of Upward Housing Mobility: Future Homeownership Likelihood and Voter Behaviour in the United Kingdom

The Political Behavior of the Batulanteh Highlands Community in the Regional Head Election of Sumbawa Regency in 2020

his research aims to determine the political behavior of voters and the factors behind them choosing the people of the Batulanteh highlands in the 2020 Sumbawa Regency regional elections. This is interesting to research becauseeach voter has their own reasons and interests in determining political choices, so that candidates can determine strategy in campaigning to get results that are in line with the target. This study is qualitative research. The results of the research showthat the tendency for political behavior to vote for the people of the Batulanteh highlands tends to be dominated by aspects of the figure and campaign issues as well as the candidate's work program. This is closely related to the real condition of Batulanteh which is still very underdeveloped and far from development aspects. The factors behind the political behavior of Batulanteh Community voters are the voter's social circle as a variable that is outside the voter but has an influence in determining individual political choices. Individual voters' decisions are strongly influenced by group cohesion processes, not purely individual decisions and actions. This creates a "threat" if an individual in a group makes a decision that is different from the group's decision, including the decision not to vote. Then there are patron client relationships, money politics, and an assessment of regional socio-economic conditions. Of the various aspects above, the most determining aspect is money politics. Meanwhile, thepatron-client aspect is relative, one-off, and not literate. The existence of money politics is considered the most determinant in influencing a person's voting decisions. This is caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, making money politics easier to accept andincreasing nominal vote buying. Money politics succeeded in influencing voting behavior because candidates used personal loyalist strategies to influence voters through their social environment. The use of money politics is an effort to strengthen voters'preferences for certain candidates and strengthen the confidence of regional head candidates to be able to get guaranteed voter compliance

“I shall not poison my child with your human experiment”: Investigating predictors of parents’ hesitancy about vaccinating younger children (

BackgroundSince the approval of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines for younger children (those under the age of 12), uptake has been low. Despite widespread vaccination among older children and adults, these trends may undermine public health efforts to manage future waves of SARS-CoV-2 or spill over into other childhood vaccines. The objectives of this study were to understand parents’ intentions to vaccinate their children (under age 12) against SARS-CoV-2, and to explore reasons for and against SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. MethodsA representative sample of parents of school-aged children (ages 3–11 years) from Canada’s four largest provinces were invited in June 2021 to complete a survey on the impact of COVID-19 on schooling. The survey included specific questions on parents’ intentions to vaccinate their child(ren) against SARS-CoV-2. Multinomial regression models were run to estimate associations between demographic factors, political affiliation and voting, concerns about individual / family health and vaccination intention. ResultsA total of 74.0 % of parents (n = 288) intended to vaccinate their children with the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, 18.3 % (n = 71) did not intend to vaccinate and 7.7 % (n = 30) were unsure. The strongest predictor of parental hesitancy was whether a parent had themselves been vaccinated. Other factors including past voting behaviour, dissatisfaction with the government’s response to the pandemic, and relatively less concern about contracting SARS-CoV-2 were also correlated with hesitancy. Parents of older children were more likely to indicate plans to vaccinate their child(ren). Analysis of the reasons for hesitancy showed parents are concerned about the safety and side effects of the vaccine, as well as with processes of testing and approval. InterpretationA considerable proportion of Canadian parents of younger school-aged children (ages 3–11) were unsure and/or hesitant about vaccinating their children against SARS-CoV-2. As well, a much larger proportion who are not necessarily hesitant have also not had their children vaccinated. Given the evolving nature of SARS-CoV-2, including the continued emergence of new variants, reaching younger children will be important for population health. Health providers should continue to work with government institutions to ensure clear communication regarding the safety, efficacy, and importance of child vaccines for reaching public health goals.

Identifying the Antecedents of Voter Behaviour: An Empirical Study on Indian Electorates

Identifying the Antecedents of Voter Behaviour: An Empirical Study on Indian Electorates

Identifying the antecedents of voter behaviour: an empirical study on Indian electorates

Identifying the antecedents of voter behaviour: an empirical study on Indian electorates

The Virus of Fear: The Political Impact of Ebola in the United States

We study how public anxiety over the threat of a disease outbreak can affect voter behavior by looking at the Ebola scare that hit the United States in 2014. Exploiting timing and locations of the four cases diagnosed in the country, we show that heightened concern about Ebola led to a lower Democratic vote share and lower turn-out, despite no evidence of a general anti-incumbent effect (including President Obama). Voters displayed increasingly conservative attitudes on immigration, but not on other ideologically charged issues. Our findings indicate that emotional reactions can have a strong electoral impact, mediated by issues plausibly associated with the specific triggering factor. (JEL D72, D91, I12, J15)

Who spends what, and why? The constituency project fund and electoral politics in Ghana

Ghana's version of MPs Constituency Project Fund is a component of the District Assemblies Common Fund, introduced in 1993. Since its introduction however, no steps have been taken to ensure efficient use of the fund, thus justifying assertions that it is often used as a tool for rent-seeking and perpetuating clientelist relationships. This paper examined how MPs in selected constituencies in Ghana used the fund between 2013 and 2016, and what impact the expenditure had on their performances in the 2016 parliamentary elections. It was found that the MPs were more inclined towards spending their constituency project fund on the personal needs of constituents. However, the findings do not show that the expenditure of the MPsCPF has a significant impact on electoral fortunes of an incumbent MP. While shedding light on an aspect of Ghanaian voter behavior, the study highlights the clientelist motivations underpinning legislative spending in Ghana and emphasizes the need for appropriate laws to regulate the use of the MPsCPF, and empowering the local government system to perform its functions effectively.

Influence of Ethno-Religious Identity on Voting Behaviour in 2023 Gubernatorial Election in Lagos State, Nigeria

This research investigate the influence of ethno-religious identity on voting behaviour in 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos State. Survey research design was used in conducting the research as such questionnaire was administered in collecting information from the respondents. The study population consists of all residents in Lagos East Senatorial District, Lagos State. A sample of 200 respondents was selected. Data were analyzed using Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) statistical method to analyse the formulated hypotheses. Findings from this study revealed that there is significant relationship between ethnic identity and voting behaviour in 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos State, (r = .783; N=200; p< .05) and also there is significant relationship between religious identity and voting behaviour in 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos State, (r = .719; N=200; p< .05) In conclusion, the study has shown that ethnicity and religion do influence the voting behaviours in the 2023 gubernatorial election in Lagos state and analysis of the vote showed that there was variation in the voting patterns of the people as is tilted towards ethnic and religious inclination. Finally, the study recommended, The winner of 2023 governorship election should form all ethnic inclusive government and ensures that no ethnic group would complain of marginalization and also the government should sustain unity among ethnic group in Lagos State and discourage disunity.

Friends and Neighbours: Electoral Geography of 2020 Local Election in Metro City, Lampung, Indonesia

This article discusses local political dynamics in Indonesia, notably in the city of Metro. There are several factors why a particular candidate is more politically electable than others, including ethno-religious factors and money. Moreover, a traditional factor that needs to be considered in the study of electoral geography is the influence of the spatial effect upon voting behaviour. In the election, demographics and geography are two important factors in voting behaviour. The local election resulted in a competitive and dynamic political contest among the local elite in Metro. The result of the 2020 local election was particularly interesting because the independent candidate won and defeated the party-based candidate. This is a mixed methods approach combining the data from interviews and a qualitative survey. This research aims to analyse the spatial factor in Metro’s local election, looking at why a certain candidate won in a particular area and how the geographical factor influenced voting behaviour. Secondly, the result of the qualitative survey supported the finding that voters still consider ethno-religious factor. The finding obtained by this research reveals two significant narratives, specifically the crucial factor of ethno-religious sentiment on voting preference and the spatial factor related to residency in securing a victory for the candidate in the local election. Essentially, research concludes that the spatial factor is of importance in the context of Metro’s local election and supports Woolstencroft's (1980) classical concept of electoral geography comprising “friends and neighbours”.

Eleştirel Söylem Analizi Bağlamında Göçmen Karşıtı Söylemlerin Seçmen Davranışları Üzerindeki Etkisi: İtalya Lig Partisi Örneği

Soğuk Savaş’ın sona ermesinin ardından her geçen gün artış gösteren göç hareketleri Afrika ile Avrupa kıtaları arasındaki en aktif göç rotası üzerinde yer alan İtalya’yı derinden etkilemiştir. Gerek transit gerekse hedef ülke konumunda olan İtalya’ya yönelik yoğun göç hareketleri her gecen gün daha da siyasallaştırılmış ve politik düzlemin en tartışmalı konuları arasına girmiştir. Öte yandan kurulduğu yıldan itibaren İtalya siyasal sisteminde önemli bir aktör olmayı başaran aşırı sağcı Lig Partisi’nin politik söyleminin merkezinde 2000’li yıllara kadar bölgeselcilik bulunmaktayken, 2000’li yıllar itibariyle göç karşıtlığı, partinin genel siyasi çizgisini ve ideolojik duruşunu karakterize etmeye başlamıştır. Çalışmada Lig Partisi’nin göç karşıtı söylemlerini hangi metaforlar üzerinden gerçekleştirdiği ve bu söylemlerin İtalya genel seçimleri ile Avrupa Parlamentosu seçimlerine yansımaları ele alınmıştır. Lig Partisi aktörlerinin hangi metaforları ön plana çıkardıkları, iletişim stratejileri ve seçim afişlerinin bu metaforlar ile ilişkisi eleştirel söylem analizi yöntemi ile incelenmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu anlamda çalışmanın temel amacı, Lig Partisi aktörlerinin göçmen karşıtı söylemlerinin partinin oy oranlarını etkileyen bir değişken olup olmadığını ortaya koymaktır. Elde edilen verilere göre, suç oranları ve kültürel farklılıklar gibi sebeplerle veya kitlesel göç hareketlerinin toplumun duyarlılık düzeyini artırdığı dönemlerde, göç karşıtı söylemin seçim sonuçlarına olumlu bir şekilde yansıdığı gözlemlenmektedir. Ancak ekonomik ve toplumsal sorunların farklılaştığı dönemlerde göç karşıtı söylem, seçmen davranışları üzerinde beklenen etkiyi göstermemektedir.

DOES IDEOLOGY (STILL) MATTER? YOUTH VOTERS BEHAVIOR ANAYLISIS AT THE NATIONAL LEGISLATIVE ELECTION IN GATAK DISTRICT, CENTRAL JAVA

This study aims to determine the characteristics and analyze the behavior of youth voters in the 2019 legislative general election (DPR) in Gatak District, Sukoharjo Regency, Central Java Province, Indonesia. The method used is a mixed method. The population is youth voters aged 20-24 years and the number of samples is 97 voters determined by the Slovin formula and selected using a simple random technique. Test the validity of the questionnaire using the Guttman scale. In addition, this study also used semi-structured interviews with nine selected informants. Secondary data is also used to complete the analysis, such as: reports, scientific writings, and news. This study found that based on the typology, youth voters in Gatak District tended to be rational, not traditional, not skeptical, however, they tend not to be critical voters, especially on two indicators related to attachment to the ideology of political parties and their legislative candidates. Based on these results, it is concluded that the preferences of youth voters towards parties and candidates are more policy problem solving oriented than ideological orientations.

Perilaku Memilih Masyarakat pada Pilkada Klaten 2020, Ulasan Kemenangan Pasangan Sri Mulyani - Yoga Hardaya

This research discusses the voting behavior of the people of Klaten in the 2020 local election in relation to the victory of the pair Sri Mulyani and Yoga Hardaya (MULYO). The purpose of this study is to identify the factors influencing voters in casting their votes for Sri Mulyani and Yoga Hardaya in the 2020 Klaten regional head election. The focus of this research was conducted in the Trucuk District as it has the largest Permanent Voter List (DPT) in Klaten. This study uses a mixed, quantitative-qualitative method. The quantitative approach was conducted with a survey research method on 397 people. The data analysis method used is multiple linear regression analysis. As for the qualitative approach, the researchers conducted in-depth interviews with several informants encountered. The results show that the voting behavior of the Klaten community is influenced by some factors, such as; Sociological, Psychological, Rational Choice, thus leading to the victory of the MULYO pair. The psychological factor becomes the dominant factor in determining choice by considering the prominence and party identification towards PDIP with a coefficient of 0.029. Meanwhile, the rational choice factor has a small influence on the selection of the regent candidate.

PERAN RETORIKA DALAM MEDIA SOSIAL DAN PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP PEMILIH MUDA PADA PEMILIHAN UMUM

The strong role of social media in the world of politics is gaining attention which helps the younger generation to be politically literate, and increasing the participation of first-time voters is inevitable, so the role of rhetoric in social media and its influence on young voters in general elections is very important. This research uses descriptive qualitative methods, data collection is carried out by literature study, secondary data refers to data that has been collected and analyzed by other people. The research results show that the role of political campaigns on social media has a positive and significant effect on young voter behavior. The role of good political campaigns on social media can increase the behavior of young voters, the role of political campaigns on social media simultaneously (together) has a positive and significant influence on the behavior of young voters, and of course social media will play a very important role in influencing children's voting behavior. young. New voters will be interested in politics while relaxing, although there is the influence of social media through schools and families, but it does not have a significant effect because they are a generation that is familiar with media use

Gen Z voter behavior in the 2024 presidential election: A virtual ethnographic study on the Instagram accounts of presidential candidates

The 2024 presidential and vice-presidential general election is a topic that is being highlighted by the public, including young voters or what could be called Gen Z. The use of Instagram media by three presidential candidates to launch self-introductions and election campaigns is a reference for Gen Z voters in providing comments and assessment. This research aims to determine the behavior of Gen Z voters in the 2024 presidential election using qualitative ethnographic methods and descriptive analysis. The findings of this study show that Gen Z's behavior in responding to the 2024 presidential election includes two behaviors, namely rational and irrational. The rational behavior of Gen Z is shown by assessing the vision and mission of the presidential candidate pair and their track record of achievements. In contrast, the irrational behavior of Gen Z voters is shown by assessing the presidential candidate pair based on exciting content or popularity, even though it lacks substance. Therefore, these findings contribute to the development of user-based discourse that can deconstruct the dominance of discourse by those in power. This aligns with Islamic communication values in the form of 'freedom of action,' which guarantees each individual to accept or reject a discourse.***Pemilihan umum presiden dan wakil presiden 2024 menjadi topik yang disoroti oleh khalayak, termasuk para pemilih muda atau bisa disebut Gen Z. Penggunaan media instagram oleh tiga kandidat calon presiden untuk melancarkan pengenalan diri dan kampanye pemilu menjadi rujukan pemilih gen Z dalam memberikan komentar dan penilaian. Riset ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perilaku pemilih Gen Z pada Pilpres 2024, dengan menggunakan metode kualitatif netnografis dan analisis deskriptif. Hasil temuan kajian ini menunjukkan bahwa perilaku Gen Z dalam menyikapi Pilpres 2024 meliputi dua perilaku, yaitu perilaku rasional dan irasional. Perilaku rasional Gen Z ditampilkan dengan menilai visi dan misi pasangan calon presiden serta track record prestasinya., sedangkan perilaku irasional pemilih Gen Z ditunjukkan dengan memberikan penilaian kepada pasangan calon presiden berdasarkan konten yang menarik atau kepopuleran meskipun minim substansi. Oleh karena itu, temuan ini berkontribusi bagi pengembangan wacana berbasis pengguna yang dapat mendekonstruksi dominasi wacana oleh penguasa. Hal ini sejalan dengan nilai-nilai komunikasi Islam berupa ‘kebebasan berbuat’ yang menjamin setiap individu untuk menerima atau menolak suatu wacana.

Политический анализ и прогнозирование: отечественный опыт (учебник Д.А. Ежова «Политический анализ и прогнозирование»)

The purpose of the published review is to evaluate and analyze a textbook that has no analogues in the domestic political science educational and methodological literature, authored by Candidate of Political Sciences, Associate Professor D.A. Yezhov. The author of the textbook has gained fame in the scientific community due to his research in the field of showization of politics, both in modern Russia and in various countries of the world community, as well as in the study of election campaigns and the peculiarities of electoral behavior of Russian voters during parliamentary and presidential elections. He has experience working at the Russian Center for Electoral Technology Training at the CEC of the Russian Federation, so he considers election problems from a practical point of view. The peer-reviewed textbook intended for undergraduate students studying in political science specialties provides a detailed description of the categorical apparatus of political analysis and forecasting in domestic political science, these mechanisms are considered in a comparative way with foreign analogues. The methodological and conceptual foundations of analytical and predictive techniques used in political research are analyzed. The experience of their application in modern Russia is considered on concrete examples from political practice (including managerial activities). The emphasis is on the study and comparison of methods of political analysis, political decision-making and forecasting (both in the short and long term). The author does not forget about the coverage of such controversial topics of the course as the analysis of theoretical and applied features of the domestic political TV discourse and the study of theoretical and methodological aspects and problems of forecasting electoral behavior at elections of various levels.

An evaluation of the efficiency of Turkic cooperation in the United Nations General Assembly

This study investigates the dynamics of voting cohesion in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) by conducting a comparative analysis of the European Union (EU), the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), and the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). The research aims to assess the external voting cohesion of OTS member states in relation to the EU and CIS, utilizing the benchmark of collective voting in the UNGA as an indicator. The historical context underscores the significance of regional organizations in fostering collaboration among member countries, particularly in the realms of economics, security, and socioeconomic growth. The focus of this study on the OTS arises from the unique geopolitical and historical circumstances of Turkic-speaking nations dispersed globally. The methodology employs a comprehensive analysis of UNGA roll-call votes, utilizing data spanning from 1992 to 2019. The study employs the voting cohesion measurement proposed by Hosli et al. (2010), incorporating a scoring system to quantify cohesion. Results indicate that, compared to the CIS, the OTS demonstrates slightly higher voting cohesion, with a discernible increasing trend over the years. The EU, exhibiting the highest level of cohesion, provides a reference point for potential advancements in the OTS's institutional structures and collaborative efforts. The findings suggest that the OTS has the potential to achieve EU-level cohesion with continued improvements in institutional frameworks and enhanced cooperation among member states. In conclusion, this study contributes to the understanding of international cooperation dynamics, emphasizing the evolving role of regional organizations in shaping voting behaviour at the global stage. The findings underscore the potential for increased cohesion within the OTS, positioning it as a significant player in international diplomacy.

Voting against Women: Political Patriarchy, Islam, and Representation in Indonesia

AbstractWe examine cultural and ideological barriers to gender equality in a young democracy, Indonesia, where women’s political representation has increased slowly since democratization, but where survey results point to declining support for women’s political leadership. In both country and comparative literature, the effect of ideological factors—including religion—on voter support for women candidates is contested. Using results of a nationally representative survey, we group respondents according to a “political patriarchy” index. We find that being a Muslim is a strong predictor of holding patriarchal attitudes; university education is associated with gender-egalitarian views. Patriarchal views, in turn, are associated with opposition to increasing Indonesia’s gender quota and with lower levels of self-reported voting for female candidates. Our findings suggest that patriarchal attitudes drive both policy preferences and voter behavior. We conclude that Indonesia’s recent conservative Islamic turn likely underpins widespread—and increasing—opposition to gender equality in politics.

Combining voter preferences with party position estimates from different sources for studying voting behavior and representation

Researchers interested in policy voting and substantive representation face the challenge to combine party positions with voter preference data on a common scale. One solution is to rely on voters’ perceptions of parties’ policy positions, as reported in surveys. However, this kind of data is often only available for the common left–right dimension, but not for more concrete policy scales, and it suffers from bias. We first discuss how to free perceptual data from bias by relying on a Bayesian version of the Aldrich–McKelvey rescaling technique. Then we discuss two prominent alternative sources of party position estimates: expert survey positions, and positions based on the CMP coding scheme of the manifesto project. While both types of party position estimates are considered to be of good quality, it is unclear how they fit into voter preference scales. This paper presents a simple rescaling technique that improves the matching.

A Impact Analysis of Digitalized Voting System on Voting Behavior and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria

Election results in most African countries are hardly transmitted using digitalized devices. This has created room for suspicion and discrediting of electoral integrity in part of Africa. Citizens’ suspicion of the electoral process has not only made many African voters believe that votes hardly count, but it has significantly provoked tendencies of political apathy and indifference during elections in some African countries. Political apathy and indifference are partly responsible for the recruitment of mediocre persons to elective political offices, which in the long run, amount to bad governance. While the occupation of elective public offices by mediocre persons is antithetical to democratic consolidation, Africa’s electoral integrity largely depends on, and can only be sustained if election results are digitalized or transmitted in real time electronically. Although studies have extensively examined and identified factors such as competency, integrity, proven track records, vision, ideology, manifesto, and inducements, among others, as factors influencing voting choice or behavior, evidence is very little on how a digitalized transmission of election results, impacts on voting behavior and consolidates Africa’s democracy, using the elite theory. This article thus expanded knowledge on how a digitalized voting method influences voters’ decisions or choices using the qualitative method. Results indicated that a digitalized voting system could enhance vote count, public trust in election results, and the deepening of democracy in Africa. It concluded that a digitalized voting system has the potential to increase citizens trust in the electioneering process in Nigeria. This is a contribution to the general body of knowledge in e-voting and election administration. Keywords: Behavior, Consolidation Democracy, Digitalize, Voting System

Unveiling the digital persona image: the influence of social media on political candidates’ brand personality and voter behaviour in Kuwait

The research paper examined the interplay between social media, brand personality, and voter behaviour in Kuwait’s unique political environment. The study applied the Aaker model of brand personality to investigate how social media shapes the brand personality of political candidates, how voters perceive this brand personality, and the impact it has on their behaviour. Further, it explored the role of tribal and religious affiliations in shaping the perceived brand personality of candidates and their implications for election campaign strategies. Through a quantitative research design, data was collected from 363 Kuwaiti voters using a structured questionnaire. The findings revealed the significant influence of social media on voter behaviour, as well as the relevance of the Aaker model in the political context of Kuwait. The study uncovered the connection between voter demographics and preferences, highlighting the impact of socio-cultural factors on voter behaviour. The implications drawn from these findings provide valuable insights for election campaign strategies in Kuwait’s digitalised political environment.