Voter Alignment Research Articles

MAGA Trumps the Incumbency Advantage in a Dueling Incumbent Primary

Redistricting is the causal agent responsible for two incumbents facing off in U.S. House elections and hence, despite the rarity of these matchups, they occur periodically due to district boundary changes. In this article, we examine who wins a recent and highly competitive incumbent duel: the 2024 GOP primary in Alabama’s congressional district (CD) 1. Our assessment of this race marks the first academic study to marshal large-N survey data for the purpose of gauging voter preferences in a dueling incumbent primary. This approach gives us a clearer understanding of what accounts for the outcome of a highly contentious and extremely close election. Our findings suggest the incumbency advantage was overridden by voter alignment with the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, which produced a narrow victory for the more MAGA/Trump-positioned candidate in this race.

Generational (re)alignment: emerging issues and new voters in Western Europe

Voting behaviour in Western Europe has become increasingly structured by attitudes towards socio-cultural issues, such as immigration and European unification. This study examines whether generational differences affect this form of realignment. By combining data from the ESS and the CHES, it explores party–voter alignment on specific issues across 17 West European party systems from 2002 to 2020. ‘Age-Period-Cohort’ (APC) analyses demonstrate that younger generations are more strongly aligned than older generations on immigration, LGBTQ+-rights, the environment and left–right placement, but not on the EU and income redistribution. The results also show over-time increases in issue alignment for three of the six issues, but these period effects are more country-specific than the generational differences. Consequently, generational replacement can be expected to increase party–voter alignment on the left–right dimension and (some) new issues.

The political sociologist Seymour M. Lipset: Remembered in political science, neglected in sociology

ABSTRACTSeymour M. Lipset was one of the leading scholars of his generation in political science and sociology. Empirically, this article highlights divergent receptions of Lipset in both disciplines: while Lipset experiences increasing visibility in political science, his visibility in sociology turns out to be rather transitory. To better understand these divergent legacies, this paper identifies major topics in Lipset’s oeuvre and reconstructs the ideas that received the most attention in both disciplines since the 1950s. It becomes apparent that the demise of Lipset in sociology can be explained through his decreasing impact on social stratification research and the fact that three major contributions, Political Man, Party Systems and Voter Alignment, and Some Social Requisites of Democracy, never entered the sociological canon. In contrast, Lipset’s work on democracy has gained a strong foothold in political science and his groundbreaking ‘cleavage theory’ is of continuing relevance to political scientists.

Polish presidential election of 2010: a study of the power of voters in big and medium-sized towns

In the literature on the subject, urbanisation is regarded as one of the most important factors shaping electoral behaviour. The effect of this factor has also been corroborated by studies in Poland, where one can speak of urbanand rural-oriented parties. To determine the significance of the urban electorate in Poland, use was made of the procedure of backward elimination of voters in the successive biggest towns. The next step involved identifying the structure of support for the leading presidential contenders in the 2010 election at each stage of the rank elimination of the towns. It was already in the parliamentary elections at the start of the 21st century that big cities and the larger of medium-sized towns turned out to be their 'engines': with their highest voter turnouts, they crucially affected the results at the national scale. That is why an analysis was made of voter alignment in towns of this size category over the years 2001-2007, and on this basis various electoral types of towns were distinguished.

Ethnicity and Electoral Politics in Ghana's Fourth Republic

Ghana since 1992, when it embarked on a period of democratic transition and consolidation, has made major progress. Important questions, however, such as the influence of ethnicity on voter alignment, have yet to be explored and answered. There is a general perception that ethnic undercurrents play a major role in elections in Ghana’s Fourth Republic, but research has focused on electoral results in specific years. Little work takes a comparative approach in examining Ghanaians’ voting patterns in the five elections that have taken place nationwide since 1992. This paper aims to contribute to the literature on Ghanaians’ voting behavior. It argues that, though voting along ethnic lines does occur, ethnicity is one of a host of variables—including economic conditions, campaign messages, perceptions of corruption—that influence voter alignment in Ghana.

Trial and Error: Electoral Reform through Bypass and its Repeal

‘The second republic’ is how Asher Arian defined Israel's government in the 1990s, referring to the ‘new issues, new constitutional rules, new leadership’ that emerged at the beginning of that era....

The Cleavage Model, Ethnicity and Voter Alignment in Africa: Conceptual and Methodological Problems Revisited

Recent research on political parties and ethnicity has challenged the conventional wisdom about ethnicity as the major factor that explains voter alignment in Africa. The paper maintains that the cleavage model, although modified to include ethnicity, still provides heuristically the best foundation for the explanation of party formation and voting behaviour in Africa. It points out that inconclusive and contradicting research results about the salience of ethnicity can be attributed to a variety of unresolved methodological and conceptual problems linked to the ‘fluidity’ of the concept of ethnicity. To overcome these problems refined research designs and more sophisticated analytical tools are required. Finally, it is safe to assume that the relevance of ethnicity for the formation of party systems and voter alignment is not a uniform pattern across Africa, but will differ from one country to the other. Jungere Forschungsergebnisse stellen Ethnizitat als Erklarungsfaktor fur das Wahlverhalten in Afrika (sudlich der Sahara) in Frage. Der Beitrag bestatigt die These, dass der soziale Konfliktlinienansatz in heuristischer Weise und im Hinblick auf Ethnizitat modifiziert auf Afrika anwendbar ist und eine masgebliche Erklarung fur die Formation von Parteiensystemen in Afrika liefern kann. Die widerspruchlichen und wenig aufschlussreichen Forschungsergebnisse zum Zusammenhang von Ethnizitat und Wahlerverhalten konnen mit einer Reihe ungeloster methodischer und konzeptioneller Schwierigkeiten erklart werden, die mit der Fluiditat des Ethnizitatsbegriffes verbunden sind. Um diese Probleme zu uberwinden, sind spezifische Forschungsdesigns und ausgefeiltere Analyseinstrumente notwendig. Grundsatzlich lasst sich mit einiger Sicherheit festhalten, dass Ethnizitat fur die Parteienformation und das Wahlerverhalten nicht uberall in Afrika gleichermasen relevant ist, sondern sich ihre Bedeutung von Land zu Land erheblich unterscheiden kann.

Ethnicity, Voter Alignment and Political Party Affiliation - An African Case: Zambia

Conventional wisdom holds that ethnicity provides the social cleavage for voting behaviour and party affiliation in Africa. Because this is usually inferred from aggregate data of national election results, it might prove to be an ecological fallacy. The evidence based on individual data from an opinion survey in Zambia suggests that ethnicity matters for voter alignment and even more so for party affiliation, but it is certainly not the only factor. The analysis also points to a number of qualifications which are partly methodology-related. One is that the degree of ethnic voting can differ from one ethno-political group to the other depending on various degrees of ethnic mobilisation. Another is that if smaller ethnic groups or subgroups do not identify with one particular party, it is difficult to find a significant statistical correlation between party affiliation and ethnicity - but that does not prove that they do not affiliate along ethnic lines.

Social Cleavages, Voter Alignment, and Dealignment in Japan

Social Cleavages, Voter Alignment, and Dealignment in Japan

The Brazilian Voter in Democratic Transition, 1974-1982

Recent transitions from authoritarianism to democracy in several of the most advanced countries of Latin America have generated renewed interest in central questions about public opinion, voter alignment, and democratic theory. Can the expansion of suffrage and participation occur without generating instability and ungovernability? Are mass publics sufficiently wise to avoid the demagogue and sufficiently informed to vote on the complex policy alternatives of the modem state? This article argues that contested elections during the Brazilian transition caused a rapid alignment from the weak and unstructured voting patterns reported by scholars in authoritarian Brazil to patterns of public opinion and voter alignment typical of the advanced democracies. This argument counters several core assumptions of empirical democratic theory and differs significantly from recent expectations of democratic transitions.

REVIEWS OF BOOKS

Book reviewed in this article: The Impeachment of Michael de la Pole, Earl of Suffolk, in 1386 in the Context of the Reign of Richard II. By J.S. Roskell. Property and Politics: Essays in Later Medieval English History. Edited by A.J. Pollard. Henry VII. By Roger Lockyer. Lancastrians and Yorkists: The Wars of the Roses. By David R. Cook. The Reign of Mary I. By Robert Tittler. All the Queen's Men: Power and Politics in Mary Stewart's Scotland. By Gordon Donaldson. Lordship to Patronage: Scotland 1603–1745. By Rosalind Mitchison. The House of Lords 1603–1649: Structure, Procedure and the Nature of Its Business. By Elizabeth Read Foster. Stuart Royal Proclamations. Volume II: Proclamations of King Charles I 1625–1646. Edited by James F. Larkin. The Making of a Ruling Class: The Glamorgan Gentry 1640–1790. By Philip Jenkins. Two Diaries of the Long Parliament. Edited by Maija Jansson. Party and Management in Parliament 1660–1784. Edited by Clyve Jones. A Handlist of British Parliamentary Poll Books. Edited by John Sims. The Correspondence of the Dukes of Richmond and Newcastle 1724–1750. Edited by Timothy J. McCann. Soame Jenyns. By Ronald Rompkey. British Parliamentary Parties 1742–1832: From the Fall of Walpole to the First Reform Act. By B.W. Hill. The Younger Pitt: The Reluctant Transition. By John Ehrman. The British Political Tradition. By W.H. Greenleaf. Victorian Radicalism: The Middle‐Class Experience 1830–1914. By Paul Adelman. Crosses on the Ballot: Patterns of British Voter Alignment since 1885. By Kenneth D. Wald. Lloyd George: Backbencher. By W.R.P. George. Liberalism and the Rise of Labour 1890–1918. By Keith Laybourn and Jack Reynolds. Neville Chamberlain. Volume One: Pioneering and Reform 1869–1929.By David Dilks. Wars and Welfare: Britain 1914–1945. By Max Beloff. The Legend of Red Clydeside. By Iain McLean. Finest Hour: Winston S. Churchill 1939–41. By Martin Gilbert. Civil Liberties in Britain during the Second World War: A Political Study. By Neil Stammers.

Crosses on the Ballot: Patterns of British Voter Alignment Since 1885

Crosses on the Ballot: Patterns of British Voter Alignment Since 1885

Voters and Parties in Modern Britain - The Jewish Community in British Politics. By Geoffrey Alderman. New York: Clarendon Press, 1983. Pp. xiii + 218. $34.95 (cloth). - High and Low Politics in Modern Britain. Edited by Michael Bentley and John Stevenson. New York: Clarendon Press, 1983. Pp. 323. $45.00 (cloth). - Liberals and Social Democrats. By Peter Clarke. Cambridge:

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BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviews in this article:Spheresof Justice: A Defenceof Pluralismand Equality. By Michael Walzer.The Ideaof Poverty: Englandinthe Early Industrial Age. By Gertrude Himmelfarb.No, Minister. An Inquiryintothe Civil Service. By Hugo Young and Anne Sloman.But, Chancellor. An Inquiryintothe Treasury. By Hugo Young and Anne Sloman.Ulster's Uncertain Defenders. Protestant Political, Paramilitaryand Community Groupsandthe Northern Ireland Conflict. By Sarah Nelson.Civil Liberties 1984. Edited by Peter Wallington.Succeeding John Bull. Americain Britain's Place 1900–1975. By D. Cameron Watt.The Politicsof Racein Britain. By Zig Layton‐Henry.Scarmanand After. Edited by John Benyon.Crossesonthe Ballot: Patternsof British Voter Alignment Since 1885. By Kenneth D. Wald.

Crosses on the Ballot: Patterns of British Voter Alignment since 1885

In an exploration of mass voter alignments in Great Britain, Kenneth D. Wald illuminates the electoral consequences of major social divisions and the relationship between social structure and partisanship. He establishes that the transition from religion to social class as the chief influence on British voting occurred after World War I, as most scholars have presumed, rather than before the War, as a number of recent revisionist discussions have claimed.Originally published in 1983.The Princeton Legacy Library uses the latest print-on-demand technology to again make available previously out-of-print books from the distinguished backlist of Princeton University Press. These paperback editions preserve the original texts of these important books while presenting them in durable paperback editions. The goal of the Princeton Legacy Library is to vastly increase access to the rich scholarly heritage found in the thousands of books published by Princeton University Press since its founding in 1905.

Kenneth D. Wald. <italic>Crosses on the Ballot: Patterns of British Voter Alignment since 1885</italic>. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1983. Pp. xvi, 263. $25.00

Journal Article Kenneth D. Wald. Crosses on the Ballot: Patterns of British Voter Alignment since 1885. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1983. Pp. xvi, 263. $25.00 Get access Wald Kenneth D.. Crosses on the Ballot: Patterns of British Voter Alignment since 1885. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1983. Pp. xvi, 263. $25.00. M. D. Pugh M. D. Pugh University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The American Historical Review, Volume 89, Issue 2, April 1984, Pages 436–437, https://doi.org/10.1086/ahr/89.2.436 Published: 01 April 1984

Crosses on the Ballot: Patterns of British Voter Alignment since 1885

Crosses on the Ballot: Patterns of British Voter Alignment since 1885

The 'Egalitarianism' of the Right: The Agrarian League in Southwest Germany, 1893-1914

The commercial crisis of 1873, the ensuing industrial recession of the next decade, the depression in agricultural prices for the next two decades proved to be critical turning points in the political history of Europe and North America. The crisis triggered cartelization, the return to protectionism, and fundamental shifts in voter alignment. In broader terms the crisis meant a retreat from liberalism, at least in its classical nineteenth-century form, on the part of governments and voters.1 Within Germany the crisis resulted in a solidarity bloc of Junkers and peasants on the basis of restoration through pseudo-democratic2 radicalism; in historical hindsight we can see the alliance as a major step on the road toward Fascism. The instrument which forged the bloc was the Agrarian League (Bund der Landwirte). Aroused by the agricultural crisis and by Chancellor Leo von Caprivi's commercial policy, which moderately reduced grain tariffs in order to encourage industrial exports, German landowners organized a radical agrarian movement. Launched at an assembly in Berlin in February 1893, the Agrarian League was a combination of economic pressure group and political party, but with a self-conception as a 'movement' (Bewegung) over and above all parties or divisive interests. Programmatic statements of the League contained almost exclusively economic demands except for a few perfunctory references to the monarchical and Christian social order, but it assumed the features of a political party with its mass organization, massive public agitation, active and independent role in elections, and insistence on strict parliamentary discipline from its members. The League's organizational structure was apparently democratic,

On the Advantages of a No-Party State

One of the most important issues of political development and nation building in Africa is national integration. One major political institution which the new nations have employed in the pursuit of this goal is the political party. Ironically and unfortunately, political parties stand for division and cleavages. Thus as Seymour Lipset and Stein Rokkan have noted, in Cleavage Structures, Party Systems, and Voter Alignment: an introduction (Glencoe, 1967), ‘“Party” throughout the history of western government stood for division [my italics], conflict, opposition within a body polity. “Party” is etymologically derived from “part” and since it first appeared in political discourse in the late Middle Ages has always retained this reference to one set of elements in competition or in controversy with another set of elements within some unified whole’ (p. 3). These indeed have been the main characteristics of political parties in most parts of Africa. That is, most of them are fragmentary, and thus contribute to national disintegration rather than fostering national integration. In other words, many political parties in most African nations have not functioned efficiently for the good of their respective countries.