Volcanic Hazards Research Articles

Multi-hazard risk assessment analysis in La Palma: an approach for risk mitigation

BackgroundLa Palma, like many regions of the world, may be affected by various hazards, with different levels of susceptibility, which have a greater or lesser impact on society. In this context, a multi-risk approached model capable of estimating the total risk faced by the territory is required, considering the different hazards to which it is exposed (floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides) and the different conditions of vulnerability of both the population and the exposed assets.MethodsThe methodology employed in this study has been referred to as "multilayer single hazard", which consists of the aggregation or superposition of hazards located in the same space. As usual, the identification of the individual hazard of each one of them was carried out using heterogeneous methods, which is why an index is proposed to homogenize the hazards and make them comparable with each other. On the other hand, the model also integrates a prototype to evaluate vulnerability from a multiple perspective (vulnerability by hazard) and shows the aggregated information in maps at a medium representation scale (definition of 250 m).ResultsThe risk integration results show that 5% of the island is at high risk levels. Simultaneously, the south of the island is presented as the area that shows the highest risk by combining a high hazard, especially related to volcanic hazards, and a high exposure, as it is home to a significant volume of population.ConclusionsThe proposed methodology is also interesting because it can be replicated in other areas of study.

The magmatic plumbing beneath the Wudalianchi volcanic region, northeast China, is recharged by magma reservoirs under Keluo volcano

The intraplate magmatic systems of the Wudalianchi potassic volcanic region in northeast China have historically exhibited eruption activity, and there is evidence that they retain the potential for future eruptions. However, the characteristics of this complex volcanic region remain debated and poorly understood due to the relatively low resolution of existing crustal tomography. Here we present a high-resolution shear-wave velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle obtained by applying full-waveform ambient noise tomography to data recorded at 106 recently deployed broadband seismic stations. Our results reveal two vertical low-velocity anomalies discovered beneath the Nuominhe and Keluo volcanoes, which appear to be magma ascending pathways connecting a mantle source and crustal reservoirs. A horizontally interconnected low-velocity zone in the middle-lower crust indicates a magmatic migration pathway transporting potassium-rich melts directly among the potassic volcanic units. In addition, the Wudalianchi volcano is likely recharged by deeper and larger crustal magma reservoirs under the Keluo volcano. The unique geometries of the magmatic plumbing systems provide valuable seismic evidence for the volcanic eruption dynamics and potential volcanic hazards.

Variable preservation of the 1991 Hudson tephra in small lakes and on land

Volcanic ash (tephra) preserved in terrestrial environments and lake sediments contains information about volcanic processes and can be used to infer eruptive parameters and frequency of past eruptions, contributing to the understanding of volcanic hazards. However, tephra deposits can undergo transformation from their initial fallout sedimentation to being preserved as a tephra layer in the sedimentary record. The process is likely to be different in lakes and in terrestrial (soil) sequences. Here we compare the thickness, mass loading and grain size of tephra layers from the 1991 eruption of Cerro Hudson, Chile, from small lakes and adjacent terrestrial settings to measurements of the tephra made shortly after the eruption. We analysed samples from 35 cores in total from six small lakes (<0.25 km2), located 76 and 109 km from the volcano in two contrasting climatic areas (cool and humid northern site, and warm and dry southern site), and made 73 measurements of tephra thickness and 11 measurements of grain size in adjacent terrestrial areas. The major element geochemistry of our samples confirmed they were from the 1991 Hudson eruption. We found that some of the measured characteristics of the preserved tephra layers were comparable to those recorded in 1991 shortly after initial deposition, but that there was considerable variability within and between locations. This variability was not predictable and lake sediments did not preserve a notably more accurate record of the fallout than terrestrial sites. However, in aggregate the characteristics of the preserved tephra was similar to those recorded at the time of deposition, suggesting that, for palaeotephra research, a sampling strategy involving a wide range of environments is more robust than one that relies on a single sedimentary record or a single type of sedimentary environment.

Special Issue on NIED Frontier Research on Science and Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience 2024

We are pleased to publish this special issue, dedicated to the NIED Frontier Research on Science and Technology for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience 2024. The fifth NIED mid-/long-term plan period began in 2023, and this issue includes the first results of six papers, two reviews, one survey report, one note, and one material. Recently, violent natural disasters have triggered the development of effective countermeasures. Akita, Yamaguchi et al., and Hirashima et al. dealt with climate hazards such as heavy rainfall, snow, and ice disasters. Yamazaki-Honda reported the progress and challenges of disaster reduction and climate change adaptation using DRR strategies. Yadab et al., Akita, and Naito et al. reported data analysis and suggestions to evaluate seismic and volcanic hazards. Nagata et al. proposed the ICT tool “YOU@RISK” to educate regarding volcanic disaster risks. Sato et al. emphasized the importance and effectiveness of information technology. Kimura et al. emphasized preparedness and elaborated on measures to improve preparedness for all natural hazards. These new outcomes will promote the development of a sustainable society against these hazards and will be flagships to proceed with NIED research projects.

Novel age constraints on offshore islets around Taiwan with implications for the Northern Taiwan Volcanic Zone

Determining the exact age of volcanic activity in the Northern Taiwan Volcanic Zone (NTVZ) is essential for comprehending Taiwan's tectonic evolution. The timing and duration of the volcanic processes that formed the NTVZ remain uncertain despite the availability of geochronological, geochemical, and geophysical data. While extensive efforts have been directed towards investigating the age of the Tatun Volcanic Group, the primary feature of the NTVZ, many other aspects require further examination. This study concentrates on two offshore islets in the northern region of the NTVZ. We present new 40Ar/39Ar ages of 0.252 ± 0.018 Ma for a lava flow, representing an early stage of volcanic activity, and 0.118 ± 0.012 Ma for a dike, representing the latest stage of volcanic activity around Pengjia Islet. A sample collected from Mianhua Islet did not yield a reasonable age due to high uncertainty, likely attributable to young and low radiogenic argon. Field observations support the interpretation that volcanic activity on both islets is considerably younger than previously estimated. This study corroborates the hypothesis from geophysical studies that submarine NTVZ features to record a potentially active magmatic reservoir offshore of northern Taiwan. By refining our understanding of spatio-temporal patterns in volcanic activity, this study contributes to volcanic hazard assessment in Taiwan and surrounding areas.

Dynamics of rain-triggered lahars and destructive power inferred from seismo-acoustic arrays and time-lapse camera correlation at Volcán de Fuego, Guatemala

AbstractLahars, or volcanic mudflows, are one of the most devastating natural, volcanic hazards. Deadly lahars, such as the one that occurred after the Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia eruption in 1985, in which at least 23,000 people tragically lost their lives, threaten the safety and well-being of humans, the economy, and the infrastructure of many of the communities living in the vicinity of volcanoes. Due to their complex flow behaviors, lahars remain a major challenge to those studying them. We present an analysis of several rain-triggered lahar events at Volcán Fuego in Guatemala using both seismic and infrasound monitoring to quantify both ground vibrations and low-frequency atmospheric sound waves associated with these mudflows. Geophysical data collected over this field campaign quantifies flow parameters such as velocities, stage and the frequency of these rain-triggered lahars. Time-lapse imagery of lahar flows is compared with filtered seismo-acoustic signal characteristics to ascertain stage predictions and relationship to stage fluxes. Using random forest regression models, we establish moderate correlations (correlation coefficient modes 0.48–0.53) with statistical significance (p value = 0.01–0.02) between signal energetics and respective stage. Compiling a catalog of rain-triggered lahar events in Volcán de Fuego’s drainages over a season permits a dataset amenable to statistical analysis. Our goal is the development of new-generation geophysical monitoring tools that will be capable of remote and real-time estimation of flow parameters.

Probabilistic, scenario-based hazard assessment for pyroclastic density currents at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador

We assess the volcanic hazard posed by pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, using a probabilistic approach based on the analysis of calibrated numerical simulations. We address the expected variability of explosive eruptions at Tungurahua volcano by adopting a scenario-based strategy, where we consider three cases: violent Strombolian to Vulcanian eruption (VEI 2), sub-Plinian eruption (VEI 3), and sub-Plinian to Plinian eruption (VEI 4–5). PDCs are modeled using the branching energy cone model and the branching box model, considering reproducible calibration procedures based on the geological record of Tungurahua volcano. The use of different calibration procedures and reference PDC deposits allows us to define uncertainty ranges for the inundation probability of each scenario. Numerical results indicate that PDCs at Tungurahua volcano propagate preferentially toward W and NW, where a series of catchment ravines can be recognized. Two additional valleys of channelization are observed in the N and NE flanks of the volcano, which may affect the city of Baños. The mean inundation probability calculated for Baños is small (6 ± 3%) for PDCs similar to those emplaced during recent VEI 2 eruptions (July 2006, February 2008, May 2010, July 2013, February 2014, and February 2016), and on the order of 13 ± 4% for a PDC similar to that produced during the sub-Plinian phase of the August 2006 eruption (VEI 3). The highest intensity scenario (VEI 4–5), for which we present and implement a novel calibration procedure based on a few control points, produces inundation areas that nearly always include inhabited centers such as Baños, Puela, and Cotaló, among others. This calibration method is well suited for eruptive scenarios that lack detailed field information, and could be replicated for poorly known active volcanoes around the world.

Probabilistic hazard analyses for a small island: methods for quantifying tephra fall hazard and appraising possible impacts on Ascension Island

Proximal to the source, tephra fall can cause severe disruption, and populations of small volcanically active islands can be particularly susceptible. Volcanic hazard assessments draw on data from past events generated from historical observations and the geological record. However, on small volcanic islands, many eruptive deposits are under-represented or missing due to the bulk of tephra being deposited offshore and high erosion rates from weather and landslides. Ascension Island is such an island located in the South Atlantic, with geological evidence of mafic and felsic explosive volcanism. Limited tephra preservation makes it difficult to correlate explosive eruption deposits and constrains the frequency or magnitude of past eruptions. We therefore combined knowledge from the geological record together with eruptions from the analogous São Miguel island, Azores, to probabilistically model a range of possible future explosive eruption scenarios. We simulated felsic events from a single vent in the east of the island, and, as mafic volcanism has largely occurred from monogenetic vents, we accounted for uncertainty in future vent location by using a grid of equally probable source locations within the areas of most recent eruptive activity. We investigated the hazards and some potential impacts of short-lived explosive events where tephra fall deposits could cause significant damage and our results provide probabilities of tephra fall loads from modelled events exceeding threshold values for potential damage. For basaltic events with 6–10 km plume heights, we found a 50% probability that tephra fallout across the west side of the island would impact roads and the airport during a single explosive event, and if roofs cannot be cleared, three modelled explosive phases produced tephra loads that may be sufficient to cause roof collapse (≥ 100 kg m−2). For trachytic events, our results show a 50% probability of loads of 2–12 kg m−2 for a plume height of 6 km increasing to 898–3167 kg m−2 for a plume height of 19 km. Our results can assist in raising awareness of the potential impacts of tephra fall from short-lived explosive events on small islands.

Respiratory and physical health consequences in older adults in a high-risk volcanic area: Comparison of two rural villages

Introduction Volcanism is an important natural producer of pollution that impacts health and the quality of the environment. Lung changes caused by exposure to volcanoes have been previously studied. However, limited information exists regarding the effects of prolonged exposure to volcanic compounds. So, this study aimed to analyze the pulmonary effects and stress tolerance in older adults for chronic exposure to the volcanic ashes of the Galeras volcano. Methods A descriptive cross-sectional study of association included rural inhabitants aged over 60 years from Genoy, a village located in a high volcanic hazard zone of Galeras volcano, 2603 meters above sea level. Those in this group, called exposed, were contrasted with a sample of El Encano inhabitants with similar socioeconomic and cultural characteristics. Both villages belong to the rural area of San Juan de Pasto in Colombia. Results It was found that of 31 exposed participants, 18 had obstructive alteration, and in the control group, it was found that of 31 subjects, 6 presented this alteration. The difference between the two groups was significant (p<0.001). A similar situation occurred with distal airway obstruction assessed with the forced expiratory flow of 25–75%. No significant differences were found in restrictive alteration between the exposed and unexposed groups. Conclusion Chronic exposure to volcanic compounds has generated obstructive changes in the population, and these changes were greater in number and severity than those in the control group of unexposed people.

VOLCANBOX: a software platform for Volcanic Hazard Assessment

Volcanic eruptions have an intrinsic multi-hazard nature, in which a variety of volcanic products (lava flows, fallout, lahars, and pyroclastic flows) and associated hazards (seismic shocks, landslides, tsunamis, or floods) may interact and impact sequentially. Volcanic hazard assessment relies on probabilistic approaches based on the past eruptive history, from which scientists identify eruptive scenarios and their expected recurrence. However, not enough attempts have yet been made to address volcanic hazard assessment in a systematic way, based on principles that may be equally applicable to different volcanoes and volcanic zones regardless of their particular nature. Hence, we present VOLCANBOX, a new multiplatform (GNU/Linux, MacOS, Windows) system designed to conduct long-and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and risk analysis in a systematic and rational manner, aimed at reducing volcanic risk by anticipating future eruptions. VOLCANBOX includes several sets of software tools designed to evaluate long and short-term volcanic hazards, to conduct vulnerability analysis, and to assist decision-makers during the management of a volcanic crisis. VOLCANBOX can be implemented before an emergency, in order to identify optimum mitigating actions and how these may have to be adapted as new information is obtained. VOLCANBOX is aimed at experts in volcanic hazard and risk assessment and management and is designed to facilitate the interaction and cooperation between scientists, policy makers and civil protection agencies to anticipate volcanic disasters in a timely manner, by quantifying volcanic hazards, understanding volcanic unrest, forecasting volcanic eruptions, and identifying the most probable scenarios in a simple and clear manner.

Statistical analysis of the ground deformation of Vulcanian explosions at Sakurajima volcano, Japan

The forecast of pulsatory explosions during volcanic unrest periods is an essential issue for the assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards. Although various precursors are detectable through geophysical and geochemical monitoring, difficulties remain in precisely constraining possible scenarios. A probabilistic approach is effective in assessing risk while considering various uncertainties. Sakurajima volcano characterized by frequent Vulcanian activity is one of the suitable fields for the probabilistic forecast of pulsatory explosions. Their inflation-deflation patterns of ground deformation related to Vulcanian explosions are useful for evaluating the imminence and size of the next event. The large database obtained from its vigorous activity can contribute to statistical analysis. In this study, aiming the probabilistic forecast of the timing and size of explosions, we investigated the duration of inflation and volume changes at the pressure source using strain records of over 5000 events of Sakurajima volcano. Then, a stochastic model was estimated to explain the distribution of these events. The log-logistic distribution was found to be an appropriate model for data distribution, indicating the presence of competing processes, such as pressurization and depressurization, in the conduit. The model parameters of the log-logistic distribution temporally fluctuated reflecting the volcanic activity, especially increasing the magma supply from a deep region. We also suggested a methodology to constrain the probabilities of the likely timing and size of an imminent explosion using real-time strain monitoring and an estimated model distribution. Although some improvements would be needed for practical forecasting, our approach could be useful in predicting possible ash hazards.

A Late-Pleistocene confined volcanic debris avalanche promoted by hydrothermal alteration at the Tinguiririca volcano (Andes of Central Chile)

Distinguishing volcanic debris avalanche deposits from other epiclastic breccia could be complex. For more than 60 years, the Tinguiririca deposit (sourced from the homonymous volcano) in the Andes of Central Chile has been described by different authors as glacial moraines, a lahar, a volcanic debris avalanche, and even a debris flow deposit. To decipher its obscured origin and emplacement dynamics, we have carried out a detailed investigation of its distribution, contact relationships, sedimentology, and facies. Our findings unravel that the 57 km-long deposit is 5 to 300 m thick, totalling a reconstructed volume of 3.64 ± 0.05 km3. It is composed of unsorted heterometric breccias formed by clasts and blocks arranged in mixed and matrix facies characterised by distinctive lithological domains. In general, three clasts lithologies are dominant, consisting of black and grey andesites and hydrothermally altered clasts with jigsaw cracks and fractures. The deposit overlies terraced colluvium along the valleys and forms hummocks and ridges. Emplacement velocities estimates range from 39.6 m/s to 108.4 m/s. Therefore, the Tinguiririca deposit should represent a massive volcanic debris avalanche that formed after a lateral collapse that affected the ancient Tinguiririca Volcanic Complex, during the Late Pleistocene (between 45 ± 18 and c. 19.2 ± 1.2 ka). The abundance of hydrothermal minerals within the deposit's matrix and clasts (i.e., illite, phengite, epidote, tridymite, chlorite, hematite, jarosite, and alunite) all represent the volcano's hydrothermal system that likely favoured rock weakness and edifice collapse. Finally, the new interpretation is valuable for evaluating volcanic hazards and requires further mapping and research efforts.

Limited arc magmatism and seismicity due to extensive mantle wedge serpentinization in the Makran subduction zone

Subduction processes usually involve extensive seismicity and create voluminous magmatic arcs by mantle wedge melting caused by dehydration of the subducting slab, but the Makran subduction zone has anomalously low seismicity and magmatism. Here we explain these anomalous features by 60–65% serpentinization in the peridotitic shallow mantle wedge based on our new integrated seismic, magnetic, gravity and isostatic model across the Makran subduction zone. The low-angle, slow Makran subduction provides ample time for the slab to release sufficient amounts of fluids for creating a large volume of rheologically weak serpentinite. This reduces seismicity by lowering the friction between the slab and surrounding rocks. Further, very little fluid is left in the slab when it reaches the melting depth, which explains the limited arc magmatism. Around 100 km depth, the subduction switches from low-angle to almost vertical. Our model demonstrates the combined effects of subduction rate and dip on mantle serpentinization with implication for assessment of seismic and volcanic hazards in subduction systems.

Deep Low‐Frequency Earthquake Reveals Unsteady Fluid Flow Beneath Tengchong Volcano Field in Southeast Tibet

AbstractDeep low‐frequency earthquakes (DLFE) are observed beneath volcanoes worldwide but are limited to island arc volcanoes, hotspot volcanoes, and rift zones. Here we show DLFEs in the Tengchong Volcano Field, southeast Tibet, located ∼300 km from the Indo‐Burma volcanic arc, by analyzing a 12‐year continuous seismic data set. The earthquakes were at a depth of ∼12 km, near the sidewall of the magma body detected by the magnetotelluric survey. The features of isotropic focal mechanism, episodic occurrence, and possible non‐power‐law scaling, with no detectable geodetic deformation, as well as the petrological signatures of the Holocene eruption product, suggest that the earthquakes were likely associated with the weak intermittent magma flows near the magma body. This finding may demonstrate the existence of unsteady magmatic processes in the margin of the Indo‐Eurasia collision zone, which could indicate unneglectable volcanic hazards, underestimated geothermal resources, and mineralization processes in similar regions.

Compaction and Permeability Evolution of Tuffs From Krafla Volcano (Iceland)

AbstractPressure and stress perturbations associated with volcanic activity and geothermal production can modify the porosity and permeability of volcanic rock, influencing hydrothermal convection, the distribution of pore fluids and pressures, and the ease of magma outgassing. However, porosity and permeability data for volcanic rock as a function of pressure and stress are rare. We focus here on three porous tuffs from Krafla volcano (Iceland). Triaxial deformation experiments showed that, despite their very similar porosities, the mechanical behavior of the three tuffs differs. Tuffs with a greater abundance of phyllosilicates and zeolites require lower stresses for inelastic behavior. Under hydrostatic conditions, porosity and permeability decrease as a function of increasing effective pressure, with larger decreases measured at pressures above that required for cataclastic pore collapse. During differential loading in the ductile regime, permeability evolution depends on initial microstructure, particularly the initial void space tortuosity. Cataclastic pore collapse can disrupt the low‐tortuosity porosity structure of high‐permeability tuffs, reducing permeability, but does not particularly influence the already tortuous porosity structure of low‐permeability tuffs, for which permeability can even increase. Increases in permeability during compaction, not observed for other porous rocks, are interpreted as a result of a decrease in void space tortuosity as microcracks surrounding collapsed pores connect adjacent pores. Our data underscore the importance of initial microstructure on permeability evolution in volcanic rock. Our data can be used to better understand and model fluid flow at geothermal reservoirs and volcanoes, important to optimize geothermal exploitation and understand and mitigate volcanic hazards.

Assessing volcanic hazard and exposure in a data poor context: Case study for Ethiopia, Kenya, and Cabo Verde

Volcanoes produce a wide variety of hazards across varying spatial and temporal scales. When data are scarce on past eruptions and hazards, it can falsely imply low hazard recurrence and create challenges for robust hazard and risk assessment. Data quality and quantity vary considerably across different regions, volcanoes, and eruptions. Yet, there is a need for regional to global scale information on volcanic hazard and risk, where consistent and reproducible methods are applied. Such information is used by international stakeholders to inform funding priorities, risk reduction policies, and to highlight data and knowledge gaps, contributing towards the Sendai Framework's Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges in gathering this information can be most problematic where large populations are exposed to potential volcanic hazards but there are few comprehensive eruptive histories, as in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we present a unique study to evaluate hazard and exposure for nine volcanoes in Ethiopia, Kenya and Cabo Verde, as part of an international project to develop multi-hazard Disaster Risk Country Profiles. We applied a two-stage expert elicitation process to volcanoes for the first time, and coupled the results with vent mapping, numerical hazard modelling, and GIS analysis of eight exposure categories to identify where high volcanic hazard and exposure coincide. Testing the sensitivity of our findings to input assumptions, to better understand where uncertainties lay, showed that improving our knowledge of past eruption volumes, frequencies, and dates was key to reducing uncertainty. Expert elicitations proposed that Fogo, Cabo Verde, is the most likely to erupt (eruption on average every 25 years), while Fentale (Ethiopia), Longonot and Suswa (Kenya) were elicited to have the greatest probability for a large explosive (VEI ≥ 4) eruption (on average every 400 years). Menengai and Longonot produce the larger exposure values across most VEI scenarios and categories of exposure, but population and GDP exposure was also large for more distal tephra fall and flows at Corbetti and Suswa, with order of magnitude increases expected between 2010 estimates and 2050 projections. Potentially high impact scenarios include tephra being dispersed across large cities (e.g. Nairobi, 55 km from Suswa) and key infrastructure (e.g. geothermal power station ∼2.5 km from Aluto), as well as important tourist destinations, seats of government and emergency management operations (e.g. islands east of Fogo). This study provided the first hazard and exposure assessment of its kind for these volcanoes and drew attention to volcanic risk at the levels required to inform policy and future in-country funding opportunities.

Tertiary Magmatism in Northwestern Kalimantan: Probability of Volcanic Hazard to The Nuclear Power Plant Site Candidate at Gosong Beach, Bengkayang Regency

Gosong Beach in Bengkayang, West Kalimantan, is selected as a potential Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) site candidate. Volcanic and intrusive rocks are found in the radius of 150 km from it. Based on IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) standard, the main assessment target is volcanic rock that is younger than 10 Ma. However, there are Tertiary volcanic and intrusive rocks next to and cover a wide area around the NPP site that show volcanic activities over the Tertiary period. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate this group of rocks to understand its characteristics. This study aims to characterize the geochemistry and petrology of the Tertiary volcanic and intrusive rocks found in northwestern Kalimantan. The fieldwork was conducted to observe and to take Serantak volcanic rocks, Bawang dacite, Niut volcanics, and Sintang intrusion samples. The XRF and micro-XRF analyses were conducted to characterize the geochemical aspect, while petrography and AMICS analyses were conducted to characterize the mineralogical aspect. The result shows that Serantak volcanic rocks, Bawang dacite, Niut volcanics, and Sintang intrusion are derived from tholeiitic to calc-alkaline as a product of mantel partial melting in the subduction zone which go through fractional crystallization. The volcanic activity was initiated by the rise of primitive parental magma from partial melting in the shallow-depth subducted crust as indicated by the garnet-free HREE pattern, the enrichment of LILE and LREE, and the depleted HREE. The Tertiary magmatism in northwestern Kalimantan was found in a small activity with a small impact on the NPP candidate site at Gosong Beach, Bangkayang.

El Chichón volcanic activity before and after the Mw8.2, 2017, Chiapas earthquake, México. Is El Chichón ready to erupt?

El Chichón volcano is the most active volcano in the state of Chiapas, México, and experienced its last Plinian eruption (VEI = 5) in 1982. To better assess its volcanic hazard, we studied its readiness to erupt by estimating changes in its internal stress state. These stress changes are difficult to calculate accurately, for example in the absence of focal mechanisms, but their existence can be indirectly revealed by the presence of volcano-tectonic earthquakes, for example following a large tectonic earthquake. We show that the seismic rate recorded at El Chichón volcano increased slightly after the large Mw8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake of 8 September 2017, Chiapas. However, this rate quickly returned to its background level after only 2 months, without any external volcanic manifestations, suggesting that the volcano is not ready to erupt in the near future. Previous observations of slight increases in the volcanic seismicity rate following large earthquakes have been explained by the presence of active hydrothermal systems in the vicinity of the volcano. We propose a similar explanation for El Chichón volcano which is known for its large hydrothermal system. Furthermore, the characteristics of the 2017 seismicity (spatial and magnitude distributions), and the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio also confirm the presence of high amounts of water near the volcano. We show that the 2017 volcano-tectonic seismicity is of hydrothermal rather than magmatic origin, in agreement with recent independent geochemical and aeromagnetic studies.

Cosmogenic 3He chronology of postglacial lava flows at Mt Ruapehu, Aotearoa / New Zealand

Abstract. Accurate volcanic hazard assessments rely on a detailed understanding of the timing of past eruptions. While radiometric methods like 40Ar/39Ar or K/Ar are by far the most conventional lava flow dating tools, their low resolution for young (<20 ka) deposits interferes with the development of precise chronologies of recent effusive activity on most volcanoes. Mt Ruapehu (Aotearoa / New Zealand) has produced many lava flows throughout its history, but the precise timing of many recent eruptions remains largely unknown. In this study, we use cosmogenic 3He exposure dating to provide 23 eruption ages of young lava flows at Ruapehu. We then compare our results with existing 40Ar/39Ar and paleomagnetic constraints, highlighting the value of cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating in refining recent eruptive chronologies. Of the 23 sampled flows, 16 provided robust eruption ages (5 %–20 % internal 2σ; n≥3) between ca. 20 and 8 ka, except for one lava flow that erupted at around 43 ka, and their age distribution indicates that, during the last 20 kyr, effusive activity at Ruapehu peaked at 17–12 ka and at 9–7.5 ka. Nearly identical eruption ages of lavas located in different flanks of the volcanic edifice suggest concurrent activity from multiple vents during relatively short time intervals (0–2 kyr) at around 13, 10, and 8 ka. We analysed four individual lava flows previously dated by 40Ar/39Ar, two of which yield eruption ages older than the older limit of the 2σ interval of the radiometric dates, but the good clustering of individual samples from our sites suggests that our results better represent the real eruption age of these flows. Our 3He-based chronology shows excellent agreement with paleomagnetic constraints, suggesting that production rate uncertainties are unlikely to impact the accuracy of our eruption ages. This study demonstrates how cosmogenic nuclide dating can provide greater detail on the recent effusive chronology of stratovolcanoes, helping to resolve the low resolution of and difficulty in applying radiometric dating methods to young lava flows.

Repacking in Compacting Mushes at Intermediate Melt Fractions: Constraints From Numerical Modeling and Phase Separation Experiments on Granular Media

AbstractBefore large volumes of crystal poor rhyolites are mobilized as melt, they are extracted through the reduction of pore space within their corresponding crystal matrix (compaction). Petrological and mechanical models suggest that a significant fraction of this process occurs at intermediate melt fractions (ca. 0.3–0.6). The timescales associated with such extraction processes have important ramifications for volcanic hazards. However, it remains unclear how melt is redistributed at the grain‐scale and whether using continuum scale models for compaction is suitable to estimate extraction timescales at these melt fractions. To explore these issues, we develop and apply a two‐phase continuum model of compaction to two suites of analog phase separation experiments—one conducted at low and the other at high temperatures, T, and pressures, P. We characterize the ability of the crystal matrix to resist porosity change using parameterizations of granular phenomena and find that repacking explains both data sets well. A transition between compaction by repacking to melt‐enhanced grain boundary diffusion‐controlled creep near the maximum packing fraction of the mush may explain the difference in compaction rates inferred from high T + P experiments and measured in previous deformation experiments. When upscaling results to magmatic systems at intermediate melt fractions, repacking may provide an efficient mechanism to redistribute melt. Finally, outside nearly instantaneous force chain disruption events occasionally recorded in the low T + P experiments, melt loss is continuous, and two‐phase dynamics can be solved at the continuum scale with an effective matrix viscosity.