Output Growth Volatility Research Articles

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility

This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility in a large group of industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major results: First, while the volatility of output growth has, on average, declined in the 1990s relative to the three preceding decades, we also document that, on average, the volatility of consumption growth relative to that of income growth has increased for more financially integrated developing economies in the 1990s. Second, increasing financial openness is associated with rising relative volatility of consumption, but only up to a certain threshold. The benefits of financial integration in terms of improved risk-sharing and consumption-smoothing possibilities appear to accrue only beyond this threshold.

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility

This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility. Economic theory does not provide a clear guide to the effects of financial integration on volatility, implying that this is essentially an empirical question. We provide a comprehensive examination of changes in macroeconomic volatility in a large group of industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major results: First, while the volatility of output growth has, on average, declined in the 1990s relative to the three earlier decades, we also document that, on average, the volatility of consumption growth relative to that of income growth has increased for more financially integrated developing economies in the 1990s. Second, increasing financial openness is associated with rising relative volatility of consumption, but only up to a certain threshold. The benefits of financial integration in terms of improved risk-sharing and consumption-smoothing possibilities appear to accrue only beyond this threshold.

Black’s hypothesis and developed economies

This paper examines the relationship between the volatility of output growth and the average growth rate of output in developed economies using the Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Hetereoskedasticity-in-mean (GARCHM) framework. The results indicate that that volatility is correlated with output growth for half of the countries and that the correlation is negative for some countries and positive for others. This finding is consistent with models that suggest country characteristics are important for determining the growth-volatility ralationship. However, the estimated correlation between volatility and the average growth rate is sensitive to the specification of the conditional variance equation.

Global Diversification, Growth, and Welfare with Imperfectly Integrated Markets for Goods

In this article we examine the effect of the imperfect mobility of goods on international risk sharing and, through that, on the investment in risky projects, welfare, and growth. Our main result is that the welfare gain from integration of financial markets is not greatly reduced by the presence of goods market imperfections, modeled as a cost of transferring goods from one country to the other. We also find that the gain is nonmonotonic with respect to investors' risk aversion and the aggregate volatility of output growth. The policy implication to be drawn is that financial market integration is a worthwhile goal to pursue even when full goods mobility has not been achieved. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.