Vital Registration Research Articles

Trends in mortality related to pulmonary embolism in the European Region, 2000–15: analysis of vital registration data from the WHO Mortality Database

European estimates of the burden imposed by pulmonary embolism are not available to this date. We aimed to assess pulmonary embolism-related mortality and time trends in the WHO European Region. We analysed vital registration data from the WHO Mortality Database (2000-15) covering subregions of the WHO European Region: Eastern Europe, Northern Europe, Southern Europe, Western Europe, and Central Asia. Deaths were considered pulmonary embolism-related if International Classification of Disease-10 code for acute pulmonary embolism (I26) or any code for deep or superficial vein thrombosis was listed as the primary cause of death. We used locally estimated scatterplot smoothing weighted by size of the Member State population to calculate proportionate mortality and time trends in age-standardised mortality. In the 3-year period between 2013 and 2015, an average of 38 929 pulmonary embolism-related deaths occurred annually in the 41 Member States with available data and a population of 650 950 921; among individuals aged 15-55 years, pulmonary embolism accounted for 8-13 per 1000 deaths in women and 2-7 per 1000 deaths in men. Between 2000 and 2015, age-standardised annual pulmonary embolism-related mortality rates decreased linearly from 12·8 (95% CI 11·4-14·2) to 6·5 (5·3-7·7) deaths per 100 000 population without substantial sex-specific differences. The observed decreasing trends in pulmonary embolism-related mortality might reflect improved management of the disease, in line with case fatality data from cohort studies. Additional, or alternative, explanations might include the absence of a uniform case definition and changes in coding practices and performing autopsy. Pulmonary embolism still imposes a relevant medical and societal burden. Continuing efforts are warranted to improve awareness and implement effective preventive and therapeutic measures. German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

Potential of Minimally Invasive Tissue Sampling for Attributing Specific Causes of Childhood Deaths in South Africa: A Pilot, Epidemiological Study.

BackgroundCurrent estimates for causes of childhood deaths are mainly premised on modeling of vital registration and limited verbal autopsy data and generally only characterize the underlying cause of death (CoD). We investigated the potential of minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) for ascertaining the underlying and immediate CoD in children 1 month to 14 years of age.MethodsMITS included postmortem tissue biopsies of brain, liver, and lung for histopathology examination; microbial culture of blood, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), liver, and lung samples; and molecular microbial testing on blood, CSF, lung, and rectal swabs. Each case was individually adjudicated for underlying, antecedent, and immediate CoD by an international multidisciplinary team of medical experts and coded using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10).ResultsAn underlying CoD was determined for 99% of 127 cases, leading causes being congenital malformations (18.9%), complications of prematurity (14.2%), human immunodeficiency virus/AIDS (12.6%), diarrheal disease (8.7%), acute respiratory infections (7.9%), injuries (7.9%), and malignancies (7.1%). The main immediate CoD was pneumonia, sepsis, and diarrhea in 33.9%, 19.7%, and 10.2% of cases, respectively. Infection-related deaths were either an underlying or immediate CoD in 78.0% of cases. Community-acquired pneumonia deaths (n = 32) were attributed to respiratory syncytial virus (21.9%), Pneumocystis jirovecii (18.8%), cytomegalovirus (15.6%), Klebsiella pneumoniae (15.6%), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (12.5%). Seventy-one percent of 24 sepsis deaths were hospital-acquired, mainly due to Acinetobacter baumannii (47.1%) and K. pneumoniae (35.3%). Sixty-two percent of cases were malnourished.ConclusionsMITS, coupled with antemortem clinical information, provides detailed insight into causes of childhood deaths that could be informative for prioritization of strategies aimed at reducing under-5 mortality.

Illuminating Child Mortality: Discovering Why Children Die.

Current understanding of the causes of under-5 childhood deaths in low- and middle-income countries relies heavily on country-level vital registration data and verbal autopsies. Reliable data on specific causes of deaths are crucial to target interventions more effectively and achieve rapid reductions in under-5 mortality. The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network aims to systematically describe causes of child death and stillbirth in low- and middle-income countries using minimally invasive tissue sampling. The articles in this supplement introduce the set of foundational epidemiologic, demographic surveillance, social behavioral science, and laboratory methods. Undergirding the CHAMPS surveillance system designed to determine causes of child mortality.

Effectiveness of a Census-Based Management Information System for Guiding Polio Eradication and Routine Immunization Activities: Evidence from the CORE Group Polio Project in Uttar Pradesh, India.

.Census-based management information systems (CB-MISs) bring strength and power to public health programs by providing current information about everyone in the population covered by the program. Such a system has been developed by the CORE Group Polio Project (CGPP) in India. This article assesses the effectiveness of the CGPP CB-MIS in the management of social and behavioral change interventions. It also assesses the feasibility of the CB-MIS for vital events registration. We describe the procedures of the CB-MIS and measure the outcomes of the CGPP by observing the trends of vaccination coverage in CGPP catchment areas over time. We also compute vital statistics from births and deaths registered through the CGPP CB-MIS and compare them with the estimates from the Civil Registration System of India using statistics from India’s Sample Registration System in Uttar Pradesh as the “gold standard.” The CB-MIS has helped the CGPP to manage its social and behavior change communication interventions effectively, and it has contributed to the increase in polio vaccine coverage facilitated by the CGPP. We also estimate that the CGPP’s CB-MIS has registered 86% of births and 98% of infant deaths, a much higher level of registration than has been achieved by the Civil Registration System for the entire state of Uttar Pradesh. The CB-MIS has helped to make it possible for community-based health workers to make behavioral diagnoses of barriers to immunization and to overcome them. The CB-MIS also provides a robust platform for community-based health workers to register vital events.

Re-evaluation of the water quality and gastrointestinal tumors after water pollution control in the H river basin in China

TPS 931: Water and foodborne chemicals, Exhibition Hall, Ground floor, August 28, 2019, 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM Background: Earlier studies have reported that H River in China was polluted by industrial production and the high mortality and morbidity of gastrointestinal cancer in 2004-2006 were related to the water pollution 15 years before. Since 2008, a series of cancer control and prevention activities have been implemented. This analysis aimed to evaluate current water quality and cancer/ gastrointestinal cancer levels, as well as their change comparing with that before 2008. Methods: It is mainly a re-analysis of the new water quality monitoring, population vital registration and survey data. Indicators used included 1) the frequency of pollution of each water quality monitoring section, 2009-2013 comparing with 1997-2009; 2) the standardized mortalities of cancer/ gastrointestinal cancer in 14 surveillance towns, 2012-2014 comparing with the national rural average level during the same period, and comparing with that during 2004-2006. Results: In 1997-2009, the areas with water pollution frequency >60% was estimated to be 76 thousand square kilometers. In 2009-2013 it decreased to 36 thousand, only the plains in the center of H River basin were still severely polluted. In 2012-2014, the mortality levels of total cancer and liver cancer in most towns (11 and 9) were higher than the national rural average level (103.9 and 19.3 /100000); these towns were mainly located in the central plain and surrounding areas. The mortality levels of esophageal, stomach, or colon, rectal and anal cancers in several towns (6, 5 and 5) were higher than the national rural average level (9.4, 15.1 and 5.4 /100000), and their distribution could be scattered. Comparing with that in 2004-2006, the mortality levels of all cancers were mainly decreased (range: 1-66%) except for colon, rectal and anal cancers. Conclusion: The water quality in H River basin has been improved and mortality levels of the relevant cancer/ gastrointestinal cancer were decreased.

Figures of the dead: A decade of tuberculosis mortality registrations in South Africa.

South Africa (SA) is committed to reducing tuberculosis (TB) mortality rates in line with the World Health Organization's End TB Strategy and the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets. From mortality reports released by Statistics South Africa, this study analysed reported TB mortality in SA from 2006 to 2016 to inform our understanding of TB mortality and the development of strategies needed to attain the SDG targets. TB mortality includes all deaths reported to the Department of Home Affairs with TB reported as the underlying cause of death based on the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) definition. Although TB remains the leading cause of death, TB mortality rates in SA have fallen substantially in the past decade. From 2006 to 2016, the number of deaths due to TB plummeted from 76 881 to 29 399 and the proportion of all-cause mortality due to TB more than halved from 13% to <6%. Furthermore, the profile of people dying from TB has changed, with a decrease in the proportion of children aged <15 years, adults of reproductive age (15 - 49) and women, and an increase in the proportion aged ≥50. This change has largely mirrored the overall pattern of deaths in SA, with large decreases in deaths in adults aged 15 - 49, especially women, thought to be because of the scale-up of the antiretroviral treatment programme for HIV. The End TB Strategy target of a 95% reduction in TB mortality by 2035 is achievable in SA. However, sustained effort in high-risk groups together with improved vital registration data are needed to ensure attainment of the target.

Evaluation of approaches to strengthen civil registration and vital statistics systems: A systematic review and synthesis of policies in 25 countries.

Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems play a key role in upholding human rights and generating data for health and good governance. They also can help monitor progress in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Although many countries have made substantial progress in strengthening their CRVS systems, most low- and middle-income countries still have underdeveloped systems. The objective of this systematic review is to identify national policies that can help countries strengthen their systems. The ABI/INFORM, Embase, JSTOR, PubMed, and WHO Index Medicus databases were systematically searched for policies to improve birth and/or death registration on 24 January 2017. Global stakeholders were also contacted for relevant grey literature. For the purposes of this review, policies were categorised as supply, demand, incentive, penalty, or combination (i.e., at least two of the preceding policy approaches). Quantitative results on changes in vital event registration rates were presented for individual comparative articles. Qualitative systematic review methodology, including meta-ethnography, was used for qualitative syntheses on operational considerations encompassing acceptability to recipients and staff, human resource requirements, information technology or infrastructure requirements, costs to the health system, unintended effects, facilitators, and barriers. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018085768. Thirty-five articles documenting experience in implementing policies to improve birth and/or death registration were identified. Although 25 countries representing all global regions (Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, Europe, and the Eastern Mediterranean) were reflected, there were limited countries from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Twenty-four articles reported policy effects on birth and/or death registration. Twenty-one of the 24 articles found that the change in registration rate after the policy was positive, with two supply and one penalty articles being the exceptions. The qualitative syntheses identified 15 operational considerations across all policy categories. Human and financial resource requirements were not quantified. The primary limitation of this systematic review was the threat of publication bias wherein many countries may not have documented their experience; this threat is most concerning for policies that had neutral or negative effects. Our systematic review suggests that combination policy approaches, consisting of at least a supply and demand component, were consistently associated with improved registration rates in different geographical contexts. Operational considerations should be interpreted based on health system, governance, and sociocultural context. More evaluations and research are needed from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Further research and evaluation are also needed to estimate the human and financial resource requirements required for different policies.

Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: cross-sectional study of causes of death in Zambia.

To describe the age-sex pattern and socio-economic differentials in causes of death among adults between the ages of 15 and 59years in Zambia. Using data from the 2010-2012 Zambia sample vital registration with verbal autopsy survey, we calculated the percentage share of causes of death, the age-/sex cause-specific death ratio and cause-eliminated life expectancy at age 15. HIV/AIDS was the leading cause of death across all socio-economic subgroups contributing 40.7% of total deaths during the study period. This was followed by deaths due to injury and accidents (11.2%). Cause-specific death ratios due to HIV/AIDS increased by age and peaked in the 35-39 age group and were higher among females than males. The second-leading cause of death was injuries and accidents for males and tuberculosis for females. The third-leading cause of death was cardiovascular diseases for females and tuberculosis for males. Cause of death patterns varied notably by socio-economic characteristics. Deaths attributable to non-communicable diseases were more evident in adults aged 45-59years. Eliminating HIV/AIDS in Zambia as a cause of death could raise life expectancy at age 15 by 5.7years for males and by 6.4years for females. HIV/AIDS-related health programmes and interventions should be further supported and strengthened, as they would significantly contribute to the reduction in adult mortality in Zambia.

Incidence and Causes of Perinatal Mortality in Georgia

Georgia has one of the highest perinatal mortality rates (i.e., stillbirths and early neonatal deaths combined) in Europe. The Georgian Birth Registry was started in 2016 to provide data for preventive measures of maternal and child health. In this study, we aim to determine the incidence of perinatal mortality, assess the distribution of stillbirths and early neonatal deaths, and to determine the major causes of perinatal mortality in Georgia. Data sources were the Georgian Birth Registry and the vital registration system for the year 2017. Causes of early neonatal deaths were assigned into five categories, using the Wigglesworth classification with the Neonatal and Intrauterine deaths Classification according to Etiology modification. The study used descriptive statistics only, specifically counts, means, proportions, and rates, using the statistical software STATA version 15.0 (StataCorp, College Station, TX, USA). In 2017, 489 stillbirths and 238 early neonatal deaths were recorded, resulting in a perinatal mortality rate of 13.6 per 1000 births. About 80% of stillbirths had an unknown cause of death. The majority of stillbirths occurred before the start of labor (85%), and almost one-third were delivered by caesarean section (28%). Prematurity (58%) and congenital malformations (23%) were the main causes of early neonatal deaths, and 70% of early neonatal deaths occurred after the first day of life. The perinatal mortality rate in Georgia remained high in 2017. The major causes of early neonatal deaths were comparable to those of many high-income countries. Contrary to global data, most early neonatal deaths occurred after the first day of life.

Suicide Mortality in Foreign Residents of Japan.

Suicide is a major public health issue in Japan, with very high rates of death compared to other countries in the Asia Pacific. Foreigners living in Japan may be at increased risk of suicide, but little is known about how their risk of suicide differs from that of their country of origin or Japanese nationals. We used data on suicide mortality from the Japan Vital Registration System for the period 2012–2016 to analyze risk of suicide mortality in Japan for Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and other nationalities living in Japan, adjusting for age and separately by sex. We estimated standardized mortality rates using both the Japanese population as a reference, and also the population of the home nation of the foreign residents. We found that Korean nationals living in Japan have significantly higher mortality rates than Japanese nationals, and that the suicide mortality rate of Korean nationals living in Japan is higher than in their home country, but that this is not the case for Chinese or other nationals resident in Japan. Koreans living in Japan have a very high risk of mortality due to suicide which may reflect the special social, economic, and cultural pressures they face as a marginalized population in Japan.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

SummaryBackgroundUnderstanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.MethodsWe determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package—a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.FindingsGlobal HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87–2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91–1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.InterpretationDespite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Estimating and projecting the number of new HIV diagnoses and incidence in Spectrum's case surveillance and vital registration tool

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS-supported Spectrum software package is used by most countries worldwide to monitor the HIV epidemic. In Spectrum, HIV incidence trends among adults (aged 15-49 years) are derived by either fitting to seroprevalence surveillance and survey data or generating curves consistent with case surveillance and vital registration data, such as historical trends in the number of newly diagnosed infections or AIDS-related deaths. This article describes development and application of the case surveillance and vital registration (CSAVR) tool for the 2019 estimate round. Incidence in CSAVR is either estimated directly using single logistic, double logistic, or spline functions, or indirectly via the 'r-logistic' model, which represents the (log-transformed) per-capita transmission rate using a logistic function. The propensity to get diagnosed is assumed to be monotonic, following a Gamma cumulative distribution function and proportional to mortality as a function of time since infection. Model parameters are estimated from a combination of historical surveillance data on newly reported HIV cases, mean CD4 at HIV diagnosis and estimates of AIDS-related deaths from vital registration systems. Bayesian calibration is used to identify the best fitting incidence trend and uncertainty bounds. We used CSAVR to estimate HIV incidence, number of new diagnoses, mean CD4 at diagnosis and the proportion undiagnosed in 31 European, Latin American, Middle Eastern, and Asian-Pacific countries. The spline model appeared to provide the best fit in most countries (45%), followed by the r-logistic (25%), double logistic (25%), and single logistic models. The proportion of HIV-positive people who knew their status increased from about 0.31 [interquartile range (IQR): 0.10-0.45] in 1990 to about 0.77 (IQR: 0.50-0.89) in 2017. The mean CD4 at diagnosis appeared to be stable, at around 410 cells/μl (IQR: 224-567) in 1990 and 373 cells/μl (IQR: 174-475) by 2017. Robust case surveillance and vital registration data are routinely available in many middle-income and high-income countries while HIV seroprevalence surveillance and survey data may be scarce. In these countries, CSAVR offers a simpler, improved approach to estimating and projecting trends in both HIV incidence and knowledge of HIV status.

PREVALENCE OF STILLBIRTH IN AYDER COMPREHENSIVE SPECIALIZED HOSPITAL, NORTH ETHIOPIA: A DESCRIPTIVE RETROSPECTIVE STUDY

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION: Stillbirth continues to confound scientists and providers, claiming 18.4 per 1000 births globally in 2015. The rate is much higher in low and middle-income countries, including Ethiopia. Stillbirth is tied to maternal age, infection, non-communicable disease, nutrition and lifestyle factors, and inadequate antenatal care. Lack of quality data, including in Demographic and Health Surveys and national vital statistic registries, limits understanding of the causes and possible solutions of stillbirth. OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of stillbirth in Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective chart review of births from January 2014 to May 2015 at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, the largest referral hospital in northern Ethiopia. Stillbirth was defined as birth at, or after, 28 weeks’ gestation or fetal weight >1000g without reliable dating with no observable sign of life. For the present study, the data are reported as descriptive statistics. RESULT: A total of 4,582 live births and 315 stillbirths were recorded at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital over the study period. Removing lethal congenital anomalies, we observed a corrected stillbirth rate of 54.6 per 1000 deliveries. Nearly two-thirds of stillbirths occurred intrapartum. Among stillbirths arriving at Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital with positive fetal heart tone, 36 (44.4%) occurred during the second stage of labor. Nineteen percent of all stillbirths also occurred in transit from a referral institution. Nearly 40% of stillbirths were classified as “unexplained”. CONCLUSION: A significant proportion of stillbirths occurred after arrival or while in transit. Improved identification of high-risk pregnancies with expedited transfer for emergency obstetric care and improved intrapartum care could help decrease the number of stillbirths. KEYWORDS: Stillbirth, Ayder, Ethiopia, Africa

The global burden of childhood and adolescent cancer in 2017: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

SummaryBackgroundAccurate childhood cancer burden data are crucial for resource planning and health policy prioritisation. Model-based estimates are necessary because cancer surveillance data are scarce or non-existent in many countries. Although global incidence and mortality estimates are available, there are no previous analyses of the global burden of childhood cancer represented in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).MethodsUsing the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 methodology, childhood (ages 0–19 years) cancer mortality was estimated by use of vital registration system data, verbal autopsy data, and population-based cancer registry incidence data, which were transformed to mortality estimates through modelled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Childhood cancer incidence was estimated using the mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated by using MIR to model survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the difference between the age of death and a reference life expectancy. DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Final point estimates are reported with 95% uncertainty intervals.FindingsGlobally, in 2017, there were 11·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 10·6–12·3) DALYs due to childhood cancer, 97·3% (97·3–97·3) of which were attributable to YLLs and 2·7% (2·7–2·7) of which were attributable to YLDs. Childhood cancer was the sixth leading cause of total cancer burden globally and the ninth leading cause of childhood disease burden globally. 82·2% (82·1–82·2) of global childhood cancer DALYs occurred in low, low-middle, or middle Socio-demographic Index locations, whereas 50·3% (50·3–50·3) of adult cancer DALYs occurred in these same locations. Cancers that are uncategorised in the current GBD framework comprised 26·5% (26·5–26·5) of global childhood cancer DALYs.InterpretationThe GBD 2017 results call attention to the substantial burden of childhood cancer globally, which disproportionately affects populations in resource-limited settings. The use of DALY-based estimates is crucial in demonstrating that childhood cancer burden represents an important global cancer and child health concern.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities (ALSAC), and St. Baldrick's Foundation.

Burden of malaria in Ethiopia, 2000-2016: findings from the Global Health Estimates 2016

BackgroundGlobally malaria remains one of the high burden diseases particularly in developing countries. Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan countries highly endemic to malaria. Although, recently the burden of malaria was reduced remarkably through public health interventions designed during the Millennium Development Goals, it is still a major public health problem in Ethiopia. Hence, measuring the burden of the disease and assessing the trend is very important for monitoring the extent and changes over a period of time.ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the burden of malaria in terms of death and Disability-Adjusted Life Years lost (DALY) between 2000 and 2016.MethodsThe research used data from Global Health Estimate 2016; that originally collected the information through vital registration, verbal autopsy, surveys, reports, published scientific articles, Global Burden of Disease study (GBD 2016) and modeling.ResultsIn 2016 there were an estimated 2,927,266 (95% CI, 525,000-6,983,000) new malaria cases in Ethiopia. It caused an estimated 4,782 deaths (95% CI 122.5–12,750) with a crude death rate of 4.7/100,000 and Age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of 4.9/100,000 population. However, the number of deaths due to malaria declined by 54% from the 2000’s record of 10,412 deaths (95% CI 98.8–16180) within 16 years and ASDR declined by 63% from the 2000 record. In the same year, DALY due to malaria was 365,900 years (187,000 years among male and 178,900 years among females). It contributed for 0.78% of the total DALY in Ethiopia and 1% of the global DALY due to malaria. Around 332,100 life years (YLL) were lost and 35,200 years were lived with disability (YLD) due to malaria. Mortality and DALY related to malaria is slightly higher among males; and under 5 children are highly affected.Conclusion and recommendationAlthough, the burden of malaria is remarkably declining in Ethiopia; with a higher level of mortality and DALY, it still remained one of the public health problems. Therefore, strengthening the existing malaria prevention program is important to eliminate the disease within the target period.

Las asfixias accidentales en México: un problema de salud pública oculto

ObjectiveTo characterize the epidemiology of unintentional asphyxias in Mexico from 1999 to 2017. MethodSecondary analysis of vital registries, three national health surveys and information from the safety inspection program of the Ministry of Health in Mexico were used to characterize fatal and non-fatal drownings (ICD-10: W65-W74) and other asphyxias including suffocation, chocking and strangulation (ICD-10: W75-W84), and to estimate the level of exposure to different risk factors within households and daycares. Results100,834 deaths were registered, 44.66% were drowning and 77.17% male. Drownings mainly affect children and adolescents, occur in April, July and August, on Sundays, during the afternoon. Other asphyxias affect children and the elderly more frequently, occur mainly from December to February, on Sundays and from 4 to 6h. According to ENSANut-2012, 53,065 individuals experience a non-fatal asphyxia per year, 26.21% of them with permanent consequences in their health and wellbeing. Important risks of unintentional asphyxias are present in 38% of daycares and 80% of households analyzed. ConclusionsUnintentional asphyxias are a major public health problem that needs to be urgently attended to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, in particular the 3.2. Evidence presented in this work constitutes an input to inform and orient efforts directed to tackle this problem.

Analysis of causes of death using verbal autopsies and vital registration in Hidalgo, Mexico.

IntroductionVerbal autopsy (VA) is a useful tool for evaluating causes of death, especially in places with limited or no vital registration systems. The Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) developed a validated questionnaire and a set of automated methods to determine the cause of death from a VA. However, the application of these methods needs to be tested in a community environment.ObjectiveTo estimate cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) using VAs and compare them against those obtained in the vital statistics of the state of Hidalgo, Mexico.MethodsA random sample of deaths occurred in 2009 was selected from vital statistics in the state of Hidalgo. The full PHMRC validated VA instrument was applied to the relatives of the deceased, and the cause of death was determined using Tariff's automated method. The causes of death were grouped into 34 causes for adults, 21 for children and 6 for newborns. Results were compared with cause of death on death certificates for all deaths.ResultsA total of 1,198 VAs were analyzed. The Tariff method was not able to assign a cause of death in only 9% of adults, 2% of children and 7% of neonatal deaths. The CSMFs obtained from the Tariff method were similar in some cases to those of vital statistics (e.g. cirrhosis), but different in others (e.g. sepsis).ConclusionThe application of VAs in a community sample, analyzed with the Tariff method, allowed assigning a cause of death to most of the cases, with results similar to those of vital statistics for most conditions. This tool can be useful to strengthen the quality of vital statistics.

Mortality in adult patients with culture-positive and culture-negative meningitis in the Botswana national meningitis survey: a prevalent cohort study

SummaryBackgroundCNS infections are a leading cause of HIV-related deaths in sub-Saharan Africa, but causes and outcomes are poorly defined. We aimed to determine mortality and predictors of mortality in adults evaluated for meningitis in Botswana, which has an estimated 23% HIV prevalence among adults.MethodsIn this prevalent cohort study, patient records from 2004–15 were sampled from the Botswana national meningitis survey, a nationwide audit of all cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) laboratory records from patients receiving a lumbar puncture for evaluation of meningitis. Data from all patients with culture-confirmed pneumococcal and tuberculous meningitis, and all patients with culture-negative meningitis with CSF white cell count (WCC) above 20 cells per μL were included in our analyses, in addition to a random selection of patients with culture-negative CSF and CSF WCC of up to 20 cells per μL. We used patient national identification numbers to link CSF laboratory records from the national meningitis survey to patient vital registry and HIV databases. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate clinical and laboratory predictors of mortality.FindingsWe included data from 238 patients with culture-confirmed pneumococcal meningitis, 48 with culture-confirmed tuberculous meningitis, and 2900 with culture-negative CSF (including 1691 with CSF WCC of up to 20 cells per μL and 1209 with CSF WCC above 20 cells per μL). Median age was 37 years (IQR 31–46), 1605 (50%) of 3184 patients were male, 2188 (72%) of 3023 patients with registry linkage had documentation of HIV infection, and median CD4 count was 139 cells per μL (IQR 63–271). 10-week and 1-year mortality was 47% (112 of 238) and 49% (117 of 238) for pneumococcal meningitis, 46% (22 of 48) and 56% (27 of 48) for tuberculous meningitis, and 41% (1181 of 2900) and 49% (1408 of 2900) for culture-negative patients. When the analysis of patients with culture-negative CSF was restricted to those with known HIV infection, WCC (0–20 cells per μL vs >20 cells per μL) was not predictive of mortality (average hazard ratio 0·93, 95% CI 0·80–1·09).InterpretationMortality from pneumococcal, tuberculous, and culture-negative meningitis was high in this setting of high HIV prevalence. There is an urgent need for improved access to diagnostics, to better define aetiologies and develop novel diagnostic tools and treatment algorithms.FundingNational Institutes of Health, President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, National Institute for Health Research.

Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum, 2000–17: a spatial and temporal modelling study

SummaryBackgroundSince 2000, the scale-up of malaria control interventions has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality caused by the disease globally, fuelling bold aims for disease elimination. In tandem with increased availability of geospatially resolved data, malaria control programmes increasingly use high-resolution maps to characterise spatially heterogeneous patterns of disease risk and thus efficiently target areas of high burden.MethodsWe updated and refined the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical incidence models for sub-Saharan Africa, which rely on cross-sectional survey data for parasite rate and intervention coverage. For malaria endemic countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa, we produced estimates of parasite rate and incidence by applying an ecological downscaling approach to malaria incidence data acquired via routine surveillance. Mortality estimates were derived by linking incidence to systematically derived vital registration and verbal autopsy data. Informed by high-resolution covariate surfaces, we estimated P falciparum parasite rate, clinical incidence, and mortality at national, subnational, and 5 × 5 km pixel scales with corresponding uncertainty metrics.FindingsWe present the first global, high-resolution map of P falciparum malaria mortality and the first global prevalence and incidence maps since 2010. These results are combined with those for Plasmodium vivax (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The P falciparum estimates span the period 2000–17, and illustrate the rapid decline in burden between 2005 and 2017, with incidence declining by 27·9% and mortality declining by 42·5%. Despite a growing population in endemic regions, P falciparum cases declined between 2005 and 2017, from 232·3 million (95% uncertainty interval 198·8–277·7) to 193·9 million (156·6–240·2) and deaths declined from 925 800 (596 900–1 341 100) to 618 700 (368 600–952 200). Despite the declines in burden, 90·1% of people within sub-Saharan Africa continue to reside in endemic areas, and this region accounted for 79·4% of cases and 87·6% of deaths in 2017.InterpretationHigh-resolution maps of P falciparum provide a contemporary resource for informing global policy and malaria control planning, programme implementation, and monitoring initiatives. Amid progress in reducing global malaria burden, areas where incidence trends have plateaued or increased in the past 5 years underscore the fragility of hard-won gains against malaria. Efforts towards elimination should be strengthened in such areas, and those where burden remained high throughout the study period.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States.

In the years since the Great Recession, social scientists have anticipated that economic recovery in the United States, characterized by gains in employment and median household income, would augur a reversal of declining fertility trends. However, the expected post-recession rebound in fertility rates has yet to materialize. In this study, I propose an economic explanation for why fertility rates have continued to decline regardless of improvements in conventional economic indicators. I argue that ongoing structural changes in U.S. labor markets have prolonged the financial uncertainty that leads women and couples to delay or forgo childbearing. Combining statistical and survey data with restricted-use vital registration records, I examine how cyclical and structural changes in metropolitan-area labor markets were associated with changes in total fertility rates (TFRs) across racial/ethnic groups from the early 1990s to the present day, with a particular focus on the 2006-2014 period. The findings suggest that changes in industry composition-specifically, the loss of manufacturing and other goods-producing businesses-have a larger effect on TFRs than changes in the unemployment rate for all racial/ethnic groups. Because structural changes in labor markets are more likely to be sustained over time-in contrast to unemployment rates, which fluctuate with economic cycles-further reductions in unemployment are unlikely to reverse declining fertility trends.