Visitor Arrivals Research Articles

Forecastin Domestic Tourism Demand: Application to Las Vegas Arrivals Data

Domestic tourism demand is less susceptible than international tourism demand to external factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and international political events, and therefore is likely to be less volatile. Hence, the accuracy rankings obtained for various forecasting techniques when applied to international tourism data may no longer hold when the techniques are applied to domestic tourism data. This study illustrates that the superior ity of the "no change" extrapolation model in the context of international tourism forecast ing does not carry over to the domestic tourism forecasting case. Using data on Las Vegas visitor arrivals, it is shown that exponential smoothing generates forecasts with lower error magnitudes than "no change."

Swings and roundabouts in Australian tourism

The Australian tourism industry has experienced a dramatic turnaround in the level of both inbound and domestic demand within the past 12 months. After three consecutive years of particularly strong growth, 1989 will register a decline in international visitor arrivals. This will be the first time there has been such a decline since 1983. Similarly, the level of domestic tourism has suffered a sharp reversal in 1988/1989. Both the strong growth and the recent deterioration in Australian tourism are partly attributable to the effects of the Bicentennial and Expo events in 1988. However, more general factors have also been operating and these have been exacerbated by the impact of a major industrial dispute which has seriously disrupted domestic airline services.

Tourism in the centrally-planned economies of Europe

The current size and future potential of the international tourism market in the centrally-planned economies of Europe is examined. As destinations, they are under-performing in comparison with Western destinations on the measures of visitor arrivals and receipts (in absolute terms), as well as a proportion of national product and total exports. Major constraints include travel restrictions, poor quality of touristic provisions, inadequate marketing and promotion, and political difficulties. But, based on their innate attractiveness, opportunities exist to develop tourism in these countries through increasing openness and receptivity to joint foreign-capital ventures, and improved marketing. Of crucial importance is the upgrading of the total tourist product.

Hawaii tourism to the year 2000: A Delphi forecast

The Delphi torecasting technique is used to forecast tourism to Hawaii, particularly Oahu, by the year 2000. Local experts and travel agents were questioned on visitor arrivals and percentage of domestic arrivals to Hawaii, market share, visitor-to-resident ratio, maximum visitor accommodation and desirable growth rates, and probable scenarios for Oahu tourism. The results show few significant differences in responses among the groups, and confirmed expectations about convergence and consistency of managerial responses with statistical projections and existing trends. As such, this study demonstrates the value of combining qualitative with quantitative techniques in making long-term forecasts.

The Development An.d Organization Of Travel services In China

This article analyzes the recent growth in travel to China. It also analyzes the develop ment of Chinese travel organizations, including the evolution of a national tourism administration for the country, and examines the effects of changing government policies in decentralizing the management of travel services. The negative effects of decentraliza tion include confusion created by the proliferation of travel organizations, increased dif ficulty in coordinating tourism planning and development for the country as a whole, and emergence of negative social impacts upon Chinese personnel. In the face of declining growth in visitor arrivals, the positive effects of decentralization are not as evident. Thus, the efforts toward rapid tourism development seem to have been accomplished with the trade-off of inadequate planning and negative social impacts.

Singapore — tourism development plans

P.P. Wong of the Department of Geography at the National University of Singapore, compares the recommendations of two reports on tourism development - Tourism Product Development Plan prepared by the Ministry of Trade and Industry, and Tourism Development in Singapore prepared by Pannell, Kerr, Forster. The reports provide a framework for Singapore government tourism planning aimed at rectifying the recent decrease in the level of visitor arrivals.

Temporal dimensions and regional patterns of hotel occupancy performance in England: a time series analysis of midweek and weekend occupancy rates in 266 hotels, in 1984 and 1985

A time series principal components analysis of midweek-weekend bed occupancy rates in 266 hotels in England in 1984 and 1985 identifies four components of occupancy performance reflecting differences in occupancy levels, seasonal and weekly variations and length of season. Regional patterns of occupancy performance are also identified and these have significance for investment and marketing decision making within the industry. In particular, a clear link is established between occupancy levels and overseas visitor arrivals and the opportunities and dangers for the industry stemming from this relationship are discussed.

PR China's tourism industry today and its future development

In 1978 PR China began to open up to the outside world. The rich supply of tourism resources began to be exploited and considerable investment was made in tourism infrastructure. In 1985 visitor arrivals included 1.37 million foreign nationals. A comprehensive development programme was initiated in 1986 to deal with the shortfall in tourism services and facilities which were inadequate to cope with the rapid growth in visitor arrivals. The commitment of the PR China government together with the additional boost of foreign aid leads the author to envisage a successful outcome to the programme.

Tourism in Asia and the Pacific

The Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) represents the world's fastest growing tourist industry. PATA has been influential in making its member governments realize the economic importance of tourism which is now a priority industry in the Asia-Pacific region. PATA also plays a major role in development enabling member countries to develop unrivalled tourism products and services. Internatonal events taking place within the region help to highlight PATA countries as tourist destinations. Protectionism and travel barriers may inhibit future growth but provided these obstacles can be removed, by the year 2000 the Asia-Pacific region should occupy the supreme position in terms of visitor arrivals.

Tourism in PR China: Market trends and changing policies

This article analyses market trends in visitor arrivals for PR China, and the effects of recent policy changes upon the country's future tourism growth. Trends covering 1978–1984 reveal that growth in foreign visitor numbers is levelling off. Slower growth is also being accompanied by shorter length of stays which offsets increases in visitor volume. Recent policy changes encourage maximum growth in arrivals. To achieve increased volume, PR China must compete for the mass tourist market. This may put PR China in the position of having expensive modern facilities to attract lower spending visitors.

Forecasting tourism revisited

This article examines the accuracy and efficiency of forecasting techniques by applying time series regression to forecasting visitor arrivals. Past studies have shown that simpler time series techniques perform as well or better than complex forecasting models. An assessment of visitor forecasts developed at regional, destination and individual market levels suggests that time series regression performs well in producing annual forecasts of visitors which can also serve as a baseline for evaluating the net returns from applying more complex techniques. Tourism managers should appreciate the usefulness of simpler formal methods in developing forecasts of visitors.

Foreign Visitor Arrivals by Selected Ports, Calendar Year 1977. Office of Policy and Research, United States Travel Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. July 1978. 149p

Foreign Visitor Arrivals by Selected Ports, Calendar Year 1977. Office of Policy and Research, United States Travel Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. July 1978. 149p

(TSM) Foreign visitor arrivals by selected ports: United States Travel Service (U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C., 20230, USA), November 1976, 140 pp. Free

(TSM) Foreign visitor arrivals by selected ports: United States Travel Service (U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C., 20230, USA), November 1976, 140 pp. Free

Foreign Visitor Arrivals 1959-1969. Office of Research and Analysis, U.S. Travel Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C. 20230. 4p

Foreign Visitor Arrivals 1959-1969. Office of Research and Analysis, U.S. Travel Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D. C. 20230. 4p