Visitor Arrivals Research Articles

Exploring the linear and non-linear effects of tourism on economic growth in the Cabo Verde Islands: evidence from the ARDL and NARDL models

ABSTRACT In this study, we examine both symmetrical and asymmetrical effects of tourism on economic growth in the Cabo Verde Islands through ARDL and NARDL models. Using quarterly data from 2007Q1 to 2023Q2, and relying on the bounds test for co-integration and the Toda-Yamamoto approach for Granger non-causality testing, we found a linear long run relationship between visitor arrivals and real GDP with a bidirectional causality. While long-run effects show no asymmetry, the short-run analysis reveals asymmetric impacts of tourism expansion on growth, with differing effects for positive and negative shocks. Policy recommendations include prioritising expansive, inclusive, and income-generating tourism projects to support sustainable and diversified growth in Cabo Verde.

Model of resilience strategies of small and medium-sized tourism enterprises post pandemic crises in marine-based destination

This study investigates the resilience strategies employed by small and medium-sized tourism enterprises (SMTEs) in Tanjung Bira, a marine-based destination in South Sulawesi, Indonesia, to cope with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Duchek's Model of resilience, which conceptualizes resilience as a meta-capability composed of three stages (anticipation, coping, and adaptation), is used as a key framework. An exploratory qualitative approach was employed, involving in-depth semi-structured interviews with seven informants representing various tourism stakeholders. Thematic analysis revealed several main strategies for SMTE resilience: collaboration with stakeholders, government intervention, implementation of digital marketing, strengthening SMTEs legality, and strengthening/diversification of SMTE products. Mapping these strategies onto Duchek's Model, the anticipation stage included strategic planning, risk assessment, and building dynamic capabilities; the coping stage consisted of immediate financial measures and policy support; and the adaptation stage involved diversification, technology and innovation adoption, and collaboration and networking. A key implication is that destination management organizations should create innovative products and leverage online platforms for marketing to increase visitor arrivals and boost SMTE product sales. The findings contribute to understanding SMTE resilience in the context of a marine-based destination in Eastern Indonesia and provide insights for policymakers and practitioners to support SMTE recovery and long-term sustainability post-pandemic.

Mitigating Climate Change in Ecotourism: Analyzing Initiatives and Challenges of Tourist Spot Owners in Adapting to Environmental Impacts

This research focuses on strategies and challenges that tourist spot owners and the ecotourism industry face in mitigating climate change. It, in particular, assesses carbon strategies, adaptive infrastructure, policy implementation, and sustainable resource management in tandem with community engagement and education. The results suggest that these are moderately effective in these regards, though there is considerable work done in carbon-emission reduction and water conservation. There is substantial scope for improvement in carbon offsetting, resilience building in infrastructure, and policy implementation and enforcement. The identified challenges include disruptions of operations due to climate-related events, fluctuating visitor arrivals, impacts on supply chains, biodiversity, and human health. Improvements to carbon offsetting schemes, enhancement of resource use management, refocusing waste management policies, and addressing disruptions in operations are also necessary. This study offers insights into developing more robust mitigation strategies in the tourism sector against climate change.

COMPARISON OF K-NEAREST NEIGHBOR AND NEURAL NETWORK FOR PREDICTION INTERNATIONAL VISITOR IN EAST JAVA

Tourism is one of the government's priority sectors for economic growth. East Java is one of Indonesia's provinces and is attractive to international visitors. International visitors will appreciate the natural beauty and multiculturalism offered by East Java. In this study, predictions of international visitor visits in East Java from the entrance of Juanda International Airport were carried out using k-NN (k-Nearest Neighbor) and a neural network. The dataset used is based on BPS statistics of Jawa Timur Province in the form of the number of international visitor arrivals from January 2000 to February 2024. The datasets were distributed by dividing the data into 70% for training data and 30% for testing data. The creation of the k-NN model is carried out using k-values 2 to 7. The creation of a modern neural network using hidden layers 1 to 3. The prediction results that were made using k-NN obtained optimal RMSE at k-values 2, resulting in an RMSE of 1594,674 or an error of 3,98%. Meanwhile, the prediction results that have been made using neural networks obtained optimal RMSE at two hidden layers, which resulted in an RMSE of 1873, 355 or an error of 4,68%. So, it is recommended that the k-NN algorithm be used to predict the number of international visitors in East Java. The results of this study can be used to provide quantitative information for the government and stakeholders in adjusting the program to the development of international visitors visiting East Java.

The Applicability of Design Thinking in the Tourism Sector, Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa

One of the most significant corporate trends nowadays is design thinking, which gives firms the ability to develop their strategic thinking capabilities in order to tackle difficult problems. The goals of design thinking are to transform enterprises, encourage imaginative abilities, pinpoint needs and opportunities, and provide fresh ideas and scenarios for the company. South Africa's economy can grow as much as is desired by including all of these aspects. Design thinking is a capability that may deliberately assist the South African tourism industry in attaining its aspirational goals of increasing visitor arrivals, accelerating job development, and unleashing entrepreneurial prospects across sub-sectors that are closely related to the tourism sector. Tourism industry stakeholders must be aware of the evolving consumer demands. Understanding whether design thinking might be applied to the tourism sector in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and whether doing so may be effective and advantageous for this sector, was the study's primary objective. Purposive sampling was used in this study's qualitative research approach. Eleven members of the tourism industry participated in a design thinking workshop, a focus group, and interviews in August and September 2021. The main conclusions showed that design thinking would be an effective technique to support improvements and innovation in the tourism sector, as all participants confirmed and agreed. The study's findings have led to various factors that can help design thinking improve tourism industry business. It is recommended that though design thinking can boost business in the tourism industry, a number of contributing factors must be properly implemented.

The Mediating Role of Behavioural Intentions on the Relationship between Eco-Friendly Perceptions and Behaviour of Guests in Eco-Rated Camps at the Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya

The study sought to establish the mediating role of behavioural intentions on the relationship between eco-friendly perceptions and behaviour of guests in eco-rated camps at the Maasai Mara National Reserve (MMNR) in Kenya. The approach of the study was guided by Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and a pragmatic philosophical position with an embedded mixed methods research design. Based on the visitor arrivals to the MMNR, 208, 620 visitors were targeted for the study from which 399 were selected using clustered, stratified and proportionate random sampling techniques. Data was collected using questionnaire survey method and analysed with the help of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) based on the Partial Least Squares technique (PLS). Based on the 272 questionnaires that were returned, the results indicated that, behavioural intentions had partial mediation effect on the relationship between perceived behavioural consequences (40.8%) and perceived behavioural control (30.6%) on eco-friendly behaviour. However behavioural intentions did not have significant mediation effect on perceived subjective norms. The findings underscored the importance of understanding behavioural and control beliefs of hotel guests. Moreover, this study singled out some socio-demographic characteristics of guests which could have an indirectly link to subjective norms and proposed addition of religion, place of origin, travel companionship and monthly expenditure to the TPB. Future researches could deepen understanding of socio-demographic characteristics and their indirect link to subjective norms in different regions as well as investigating eco-friendly behaviour of guests in eco-rated hospitality facilities in Kenyan urban areas

Analysis of the Role of Hong Kong's Key Industries During the Pandemic of COVID-19

This study investigates the variables that affect and encourage inbound travel to Hong Kong using data from 2019 to 2020. Five important regional source markets for tourism in Hong Kong have been chosen, namely Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. Based on the research results, the COVID-19 pandemic had a major destructive effect on Hong Kong's tourism sectors while significantly impact the quantity of inbound tourists due to government response to COVID-19 infection case. The quantity of inbound tourists to Hong Kong is significantly impacted by the government's actions based on the COVID-19 infection cases. Additionally, existence of COVID-19 in the tourism source countries is often considered when defining Hong Kong's travel restrictions. According to the empirical findings, the demand for visitor arrivals was also lowered by the distance to Hong Kong and the expensive cost of travel there, while the expansion of tourism was facilitated by improved aviation services and potential for the tourism sector. These results demonstrate that for the city to be recognized as an attracting and cherished tourist destination, the tourism sector and the government must collaborate to restore after the pandemic. The complementary nature of pandemic control and tourist recovery is highlighted by this study. To establish a positive ripple effect, these operative and budgetary standards must demand the government to provide early recovery support to tourism sectors.

Impact of geopolitical risk on tourism demand: evidence from asymmetric NARDL approach

PurposeMany tourism academics have investigated the linkages between tourism, power and space; few have specifically addressed the profound links between tourism and geopolitics. In view of the restrictive assumptions of the linear framework used in the earlier studies, and hidden asymmetries present in the time series data. Against this backdrop, the study tries to find out how tourists may respond differently to favourable and unfavourable shocks in geopolitical risk (GPR).Design/methodology/approachIn order to capture this asymmetric nature of the problem, the study employs the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to evaluate data from 2001Q1 to 2019Q4.FindingsThe results show that both positive and negative shock to GPR does not produce results of equal magnitude. A positive shock to GPR has a more detrimental effect on foreign tourist arrivals (FTA) than a beneficial effect a negative shock produces. Besides this, the present study also looks at the effect of other macro-economic variables on FTA. An ascend in the real effective exchange rate (REER) i.e. appreciation of the domestic currency has an unfavourable impact on foreign visitor arrivals, while an increase in world gross domestic product amplify it. The results of the study are robust to alternative measures of the control variable.Practical implicationsThe study is significant for policymakers in understanding the short and long-run implications of GPR on FTA in India. The present study can assist policymakers, and destination managers to manage the external and internal risks and minimise the consequences of geopolitical threats on the Indian tourism industry. Consequently, destination managers can utilise the study's findings in calibrating their operations and designing crisis marketing strategies within the geopolitical dynamics of the Indian state.Originality/valueThe study tries to find out how tourists may exhibit distinct reactions to positive and negative disturbances in GPR. The study provides first-hand evidence of how GPR impacts tourism demand. The paper also includes the existing body of literature related to GPR factors and their effect on tourist influx, specifically in the framework of the Indian tourism sector.

Carbon mitigation policy and international tourism. Does the European Union Emissions Trading System hit international tourism from member states?

This study investigated the influence of the European Union Emissions Trading System on international travel. The findings indicate that during its first and second phases, the European Union Emissions Trading System resulted in a significant decline in the number of visitor arrivals from member states. Transportation expenditure is an important factor. With the rise in energy prices, visitors experience a significant increase in transportation expenditures within member states. The System has had heterogeneous effects on international tourism across different distances. Regarding rising travel costs, travelers tend to select international destinations at shorter distances. Consequently, the System discourages long-distance international travel and boosts short-haul travel.

Tourism forecasting with granular sentiment analysis

Generic sentiment calculations cannot fully reflect tourists' preferences, whereas fine-grained sentiment analysis identifies tourists' precise attitudes. This study forecasted visitor arrivals at two tourist attractions in China using Internet data from multiple sources. Empirical results indicate that 1) fine-grained sentiment analysis of online review data can substantially improve tourism demand models' forecasting performance; 2) combining multidimensional sentiment analysis–based online review data with search engine data outperforms search engine data in tourism demand prediction; and 3) fine-grained sentiment analysis–based online review data and search engine data maintain stable predictive power during times of uncertainty.

Forecasting daily foot traffic in recreational trails using machine learning

This paper discusses weather factors that may affect the level of visitation at recreational walking trails and provides insights into how specific factors (wind, rain etc.) can influence visitation. The quantity of visitors received affects trail management strategies, as there are often damaging effects attributed to the excessive visitation of natural areas. Therefore, accurate forecasting can inform trail management plans. Trail partners have expressed a demand for a system that can deliver qualitative insights to inform trail management while also providing accurate visitor forecasts. This study applied the approach, utilising Machine Learning and historic footfall data from electronic people-counting sensors alongside weather data; our model is a first in the introduction of Tourism Climate Indexes into forecasting models. Factors influencing visitation levels at three walking trails across the Atlantic Area of Europe were discussed. The results highlight that the model predicts trail use with satisfactory accuracy to inform adaptive management frameworks measuring visitor experience indicators. Management implications•Environmental monitoring can gather insights into the situational factors that affect visitation levels on their trails, or if there are other contributing factors aside from weather data that could be investigated.•Trail-related recreation operators can formulate and develop strategies and plans to prevent the occurrence of tourist crowding or congestion in periods of high demand and increase trail visitor arrivals in low demand.•Trail managers can develop new service that will attract visitors under different weather conditions such as shelters, indoor museums, tents that hosts visitors during rainy or sunny days.•Trail managers can prepare for a lower trail visitation demand through marketing and offering alternative recreational activities.

The Influence of Information Systems on Tourist Arrival in the Gambia

This paper examines the new futures that develop because of using information systems in the Gambia's tourist and hospitality industries, focusing on the increase in visitor arrivals. Information systems have increased the number of tourists visiting The Gambia by promoting the country, providing information about its attractions and amenities, and making it easier to plan and book trips. This has enabled potential tourists to make well-informed decisions. The study uses the qualitative method with a review of the literature and primary data. According to the study, the functionality of information systems applications offers users data about hotels, travel information, and the allure of recreational products. The Gambia Tourism Authority (GTA) was established in 1982 to promote the Gambia as a tourist destination. It worked with tour operators to create holiday packages and relied on advertising and public relations to promote the Gambia. It participated in international travel fairs and exhibitions to showcase its attractions and culture and engaged in press releases and familiarization trips for travel writers. The Gambia's tourism industry has expanded its marketing efforts with information systems to include digital channels, such as internet websites and social media platforms, to promote the Gambia's natural beauty, cultural heritage, and hospitality. Personalization, localization, user-generated content, and integration can be used to attract tourists to the Gambia. Also, the information system aids in maintaining outstanding client contacts, fostering positive relationships, and ensuring longevity because of the new value chain. The global tourism industry has a complicated value chain, with IBTOs, OBTOs, and travel agencies responsible for overseeing how tourists interact with and experience each tourist site. E-commerce can both change an industry's structure and provide new business options, leading to the emergence of smart marketplaces.

China–Asean Relations January 2023 to March 2023: Chronology of Events

China–Asean Relations January 2023 to March 2023: Chronology of Events Ryan Ho (bio) As a research institute based in Singapore, the EAI monitors developments in relations and interactions between China and the individual countries of Southeast Asia as well as the ASEAN grouping as a whole. This material is presented in the form of (i) a chronology of events and (ii) a list of important documents. —the Editors JANUARY 2023 2nd Indonesia joins the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The entry into force of the RCEP for Indonesia is an important step towards its full implementation. Under the RCEP, on the basis of the agreements under the China–ASEAN free trade area, Indonesia has granted zero tariff treatment to over 700 additional Chinese products, including some auto parts, motorcycles, televisions, clothing, shoes, plastic products, luggage and chemical products. China’s Ministry of Commerce says that the RCEP agreement will inject new impetus into regional economic integration, regional and global economic growth, and promote regional industrial and supply chain cooperation. 4th Chinese Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council meets with the visiting Philippines President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. at the Great Hall of the People. Li stresses that cooperation is key to China–Philippines bilateral relations, and that maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea serves the interests of countries in the region, including China and the Philippines. Marcos also maintains that Philippines–China [End Page 214] relations are of great importance to both sides and to the Asia-Pacific region. 14th Chinese President Xi Jinping and General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) Central Committee Nguyen Phu Trong send congratulatory letters to each other for the Spring Festival. Xi comments that China and Vietnam are a community with a shared future that bears strategic significance and China regards Vietnam as a priority in its neighbourhood diplomacy. 16th Chinese Director-General of the Department of Asian Affairs of the Foreign Ministry Liu Jinsong holds a video meeting with the Director-General of the Department of East Asian Affairs at the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs Chatchai Viriyavejakul. Both sides agree to expand cooperation in fields such as the digital economy and scientific and technological innovation, and help Thailand promote the bio-circular-green economic model. Both sides are also keen to explore cultural cooperation and promote development of cultural programmes. FEBRUARY 2023 4th The 22nd Meeting of ASEAN Tourism Ministers Plus Three (22nd M-ATM Plus Three), co-chaired by Indonesian Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno and Japanese State Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ishii Hiroo, takes place in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The meeting reports that ASEAN Plus Three countries recorded a year-on-year growth in international visitor arrivals by 79.36 per cent in 2022, which also translated to an optimistic outlook for the recovery of the tourism sector in the next two to three years. The meeting also acknowledges appreciation to China, Japan and Korea for the respective support from the ASEAN–China Centre, ASEAN– Japan Centre and ASEAN-Korea Centre in strengthening people-to-people connectivity and enhancing cultural understanding through various tourism activities and projects as well as their contributions to the implementation of the ASEAN Plus Three Work Plan 2021–2025. 7th Officials from China and member economies of ASEAN and the ASEAN Secretariat attend the first round of consultations on the Version 3.0 of the China–ASEAN Free Trade Area negotiations via video link. The two sides hold in-depth discussions on topics such as procedural rules, organisational arrangements and work plans for the negotiations, and set a timetable and roadmap for subsequent talks. 10th Chinese Premier Li Keqiang holds talks with Cambodian Prime Minister Samdech Techo Hun Sen at the Great Hall of the People during the [End Page 215] Prime Minister’s official visit to China. Li expresses his hope that both countries will expand exchanges and cooperation in such areas as tourism and cultural heritage protection, and step up cooperation on law enforcement and security. Hun Sen thanks China for its support for Cambodia’s rotating chairmanship of ASEAN and affirms that Cambodia is ready to work with China...

Exploring the tourism markets’ convergence hypothesis in South Korea

This paper examines the tourism markets’ convergence hypothesis across South Korea’s major source markets. In doing so, we use monthly data of visitor arrivals over the period July 1995 to June 2019 and adopt a novel quantile unit root tests that allows for multiple structural breaks via a Fourier expansion series. Our results indicate that seven countries out of 10 show firm convergence tendencies at most of the quantiles, and two countries have weak but significant converging trends at some quantiles.

Statistical analysis of the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the small and large-scale tourism sectors in developing countries.

The worldwide COVID-19 pandemic has affected the tourism sector by closing borders, reducing both the transportation of tourists and tourist demand. Due to the country-wide lockdown, most activities in the hotel, motel, restaurant, and transportation sectors have been postponed. Consequently, the article investigates four research issues by examining the consequences of global tourism in the private sector before and after COVID-19. As an analytical method, the article suggested qualitative research methodologies to collect information from tourism employees. The opinions of the respondents were gathered through online emails in the questionnaire survey. Further, the article considers people's future desire for specific tourism destinations based on visitor arrivals. Forecasting tourist demand is an essential component of good and efficient tourism management. Consequently, the article proposes an attention-based long short-term memory model for exact demand forecasting. The experimental findings reveal that the model's minimal prediction error accuracy is 0.45%, which indicates that it has a more robust prediction effect, a faster convergence rate, and a greater prediction accuracy. Seasonality has emerged as one of the most distinguishing and defining characteristics of the global tourist business. Accordingly, the article mandated to compare the seasonal and non-seasonal effects of the tourist sector throughout the years 2020-2021. Moreover, Governments must analyse the crises' long-term consequences and, as a result, define the components that constitute government advantages supplied to the tourist sector during the pandemic era. As a result, many governmental policies, especially those about social welfare, may perceive a fresh start during the post-pandemic period, respectively.

Analyzing the nexus between pandemic, policy uncertainty, and international tourists’ behavior in Taiwan

ABSTRACT The tourism and hospitality industry is the hardest-hit industry, owing to the disruptions from COVID-19. The tourism sector witnessed a mounting loss of about 2.86 trillion dollars during the pandemic period. Exploring how inbound international tourists’ perception gets affected by uncertainty originating from the pandemics can have important insights to revive tourism during the new normality. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the impact of the pandemics and global economic uncertainty on international inbound tourist arrivals to Taiwan, a major travel destination of the East during the period 1997 to 2020. In particular, we augment the traditional demand model of tourism with economic uncertainty indicators and disaster and pandemic dummies, to explore the impact on visitor arrivals in Taiwan from major countries around Asia, Africa, Oceania, Europe, and America. To this end, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) along with the modified Wald test of Toda Yamamoto (T-Y) was applied. The empirical results depict that apart from the pandemics, the global economic policy uncertainty has adverse implications on international tourism demand. The findings have important policy implications. Recovery of tourism demand should move along: i) new concepts on products; ii) new destination imagery and iii) marketing strategies through collaboration from the state.

Exploring tourist perceptions of Kerala's destination marketing

Kerala has been recognised as one of the top ten paradises in the world. Kerala offers a wide range of tourism items that meet the requirements and expectations of practically every type of traveller, and it stands out for offering a full travel experience. The state of Kerala offers tremendous potential for tourism expansion thanks to its ideal temperature, lush vegetation, natural tourist attractions, vibrant festivals, martial arts, wildlife sanctuaries, and ancient Ayurveda legacy. But Kerala has not been able to fully realise its potential, despite having a variety of resources and opportunities. Kerala's tourism industry has a lot of untapped potential as less than five percent of visitors to India come to the State. Kerala is ranked eighth in terms of foreign visitor arrivals and fifteenth in terms of domestic visitor arrivals. Kerala travel marketing tactics must be updated over time to reflect changes in customers' requirements and tastes if the state is to realise its full potential and pull in an increasing number of tourists, especially from abroad. To assure service quality, it is crucial to understand exactly what the client expects, and marketing research on consumer preferences is required to examine how the customer's needs are evolving. This study aims to comprehend how tourists see the advertising tactics used by the public and commercial sectors at different Kerala tourist attractions. The study also seeks to gauge travellers' expectations and satisfaction levels in regard to Kerala as a tourist destination because the success of marketing depends on consumer happiness.

Hubungan Keterikatan Tempat Terhadap Minat Kedatangan Pengunjung Di Bangunan Alih Fungsi Komersial

Old buildings in big cities, began to be looked at by architects for reuse. In addition to having historical value, using old buildings also saves material exploration. The use of recycled buildings has its own charm for visitors, because it can bring to the atmosphere of the past. The high interest of the public to visit the old building does not guarantee repeated re-visits, due to the factor of a sense of attachment to the place (place attachment). Attachment to one place needs to be considered to maintain the continuity of activities. This study aims to determine the relationship of place attachment to the interest in visitor arrivals in old buildings that have been converted. The object of the study was conducted in recycled buildings in the city of Jakarta, namely M Bloc Space, Kapitan Lim, and Pantjoran Tea House. This research uses non-experimental quantitative correlation research methods. Data is collected through questionnaires to visitors, then analyzed with a descriptive approach. The results of the study stated that there is a very close relationship between the attachment of the place to the interest in visiting the building. The results of this study can be considered for planning and designing a function transfer building.

Understanding the impact of tourism on spatial growth for sustainable development of tourist destinations through the measure of land use efficiency

Increased visitor arrivals and improved work opportunities in the discussed destinations resulted in infrastructural development and settlement movements, culminating in the urbanisation of the locations. As a result of increased tourist flows and growing economic dependency on the tourism sector, the accommodation and other tourist infrastructure have contributed to a change in built-up areas considerably in tourist areas. Most green spaces in environmentally vulnerable locations are being filled with concrete due to a lack of appropriate spatial development guidelines, while urban areas are losing their authentic aspects. The paper attempts to understand spatial sustainability through the measures of land consumption rate and land-use efficiency in various types of tourist places. As a result, the study concludes that there is a strong link between growing urbanisation and changing visitor arrivals, as well as population change, and tourism has a substantial influence on spatial sustainability.

Modelling the association between tourism and real exchange rates

ABSTRACT Fiji’s tourism industry has evolved significantly over the past 3 decades with past and present governments striving to support the development of the sector. In this study, we test the association between tourism measured by international visitor arrivals and Fiji’s real exchange rate using annual data over the period 1980–2018. Structural breaks are identified with the Gregory-Hansen test, and cointegration is confirmed with the Bayer-Hanck test. Nonlinear estimation is conducted with the nonlinear ARDL model. The results indicate that a 1% increase in tourism appreciates the real exchange rate by 0.42% whereas a 1% decrease however would depreciate the real exchange rate by about 0.32%. The findings raise concerns parallel to the Dutch Disease models and has implications for the measurement of tourism prices in tourism demand models.