Foreign Policy Vision Research Articles

Xi Jinping’s Global Civilization Initiative

Abstract This article examines Xi Jinping’s Global Civilization Initiative, introduced in 2023 as part of China’s broader foreign policy vision. It analyzes the key principles and components of the initiative, including its emphasis on mutual respect between civilizations, cultural exchange, common development, and multilateralism. The article contextualizes the initiative within China’s approach to global governance and modernization, comparing it to previous frameworks like the “clash of civilizations” thesis. It explores the potential implications of the Global Civilization Initiative for China’s role on the world stage and its relations with other nations. The article argues that this initiative represents a significant development in China’s diplomatic strategy, reflecting its growing global influence and desire to promote an alternative vision of world order based on Chinese values and modernization.

Three Illusions of US Foreign Policy

The United States, and more broadly, the West, is prone to be surprised. We are surprised by China’s pursuit of hegemony through economic and military means; by Russia’s engaging in the largest conventional war in Europe since 1945; by the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. We think that economic sanctions will fundamentally alter the calculus of our enemies—even deter a potential attack—and we are puzzled when they do not. The recent streak of surprises is not a fluke of history, an unlucky combination of events. This article contends that our surprise is due to a series of illusions that characterize our foreign policy vision. These illusions stem from a mistaken series of assumptions about the causes of political order and about the drivers of political behavior.

ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF POLITICAL CHANGE: ARMENIA BETWEEN THE PAST AND THE FUTURE

Currently the Armenian government is trying to change the foreign policy vision and make a shift from strategic partnership with Russia to a partnership with the European Union and the United States. However, this political move contradicts to economic trends and existing drivers of economic growth in Armenia. The impressive economic growth of last decade clearly indicates the growing dependence of Armenia from economic integration in the Eurasian Economic Union. According to many leaders of today’s political elite in Armenia, there is no alternative to the strategic partnership with Russia to ensure economic security, economic growth and to the improvement of social welfare in Armenia. In addition, no concrete resources are generated to maintain the same path of growth and economic resilience of the nation while making a transition to the partnership with the West. Thus, we may conclude that the national interests of Armenia require gradual diversification of economic and political partners, not an overnight shift from one polar to another. Also, contemporary tools and methods of economic diplomacy might be extremely demanded to coordinate existing human, financial and other resources of the nation to improve the level of competetiveness of the Armenian economy and ensure proper level of economic security.

Turkish-Israeli relations under AKP rule

ABSTRACT Turkey was the first Muslim state to recognise Israel in 1949. While Israeli-Turkish relations have been characterised by ups and downs, mainly due to the Palestinian issue, they reached an all-time low under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) rule. Yet, it was not until 2009 that bilateral relations started to deteriorate. Operation Cast Lead marked a turning point in bilateral relations, followed by a series of crisis: the ‘One Minute crisis’, the ‘Lower Sofa crisis’, and the Mavi Marmara flotilla crisis. With both sides’ agreement to restore full diplomatic relations following Israel’s President Isaac Herzog’s visit to Turkey in March 2022, the normalisation process in bilateral relations gained pace, only to go into a swift decline yet again following the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023. This article analyses the focal events and dynamics that led to the deterioration and normalisation of bilateral relations under the AKP’s rule. It shows that in addition to the Palestinian issue, the AKP’s foreign policy vision and both states’ divergent security interests created a conducive environment for the deterioration of bilateral relations.

The Century of Türkiye: A New Foreign Policy Vision for Building the Türkiye Axis

On the centenary of the Turkish Republic, President Erdoğan, who has been ruling Türkiye for the last two decades, has announced a new perspective on foreign policy for Türkiye’s second century. He has named the long-term foreign policy vision as the ‘Century of Türkiye’ and declared his determination for building a ‘Türkiye Axis.’ After a fierce struggle against both domestic and international tutelage, President Erdoğan has succeeded to attain autonomy in Turkish foreign policy. Ankara has built a powerful economy and increased its military capacity at the national level. Also, it has improved its relations with both Turkic and Muslim countries and begun to take initiatives and to play a leadership role at the regional level. Furthermore, Türkiye has diversified its relations with other actor and elevated its status at the global level. Within this perspective, it has begun to contribute to resolving global challenges and to play an influential role in international organizations. This article will provide a comprehensive analysis of the evolving foreign policy of Türkiye in recent years. It will delve deep into the shifts and transformations that have taken place and explore the underlying principles and objectives that define Türkiye’s new foreign policy vision, the Century of Türkiye.

Turkish Foreign Policy at the Turn of the 'Century of Türkiye': Challenges, Vision, Objectives, and Transformation

Türkiye is embarking on the ‘Century of Türkiye’ at a time of rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics coupled with ever-increasing global challenges, culminating in a complex era defined by multiple crises. Against this background, Türkiye stands out as a regional constructive and system-transformer actor seeking to contribute to a more inclusive and effective international system capable of addressing current global and regional challenges. Türkiye will continue to secure its national interests in a volatile regional and global environment, while shaping conditions for sustainable peace and development in its neighborhood and beyond. It will work towards institutionalizing its foreign relations on a structural basis, developing an environment of prosperity and advancing its global goals. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will be the powerhouse in all these efforts, building upon its centuries-long tradition and going through an organizational transformation to ensure the swift and full implementation of the vision of the Century of Türkiye.

State and civil society: peculiarities of the german approach

The article is dedicated to the interaction between the German state and civil society (CS). Germany is known as a developed democratic state with a strong CS in which non-governmental organizations play an active role. They also help the German government to implement its foreign policy vision and maintain its image abroad. The article addresses the question whether German NGOs are equal partners of the state and to what extent they are independent in reality. The author analyses the legal status and financing features of German NGOs, examines the concepts of interaction between the state and CSOs and highlights their underlying principles. The study makes a clear distinction between the academic approach and the state/government approach. For this purpose, the author examines theoretical papers by German academics and analyses conducted by the Bundestag, especially the "Ethics Commissions" of 2002, and compares the German approach to NGOs with other international practices. The article reveals the main points of interaction between the state and CSOs during the chancellorship of G. Schroeder and A. Merkel. The red-green coalition model is analyzed in more detail, as it has become the basis of the modern "social contract". The author concludes that there is no civil society in the classical scientific sense in the FRG. The German state not only actively supports its NGOs financially, but also defines the rules of engagement by clearly identifying organizations that seek political influence.

ДОКТРИНА ЗОВНІШНЬОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ ПРЕЗИДЕНТА БАЙДЕНА ТА ЗБІЛЬШЕННЯ ПІДТРИМКИ УКРАЇНИ

The purpose of this article is to analyze the United States’ support to Ukraine during the war with Russia, as well as in the months leading up to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This issue remains relevant to conceptualizing US assistance to Ukraine to expel Russian forces from its territory. In particular, we claim that among other policy alternatives, the Biden administration deliberately chose to support Ukraine «for as long as it takes». Thus, we analyze the amount and comprehensiveness of support to Ukraine, which we consider to be in Washington’s core interests, as well as US efforts in terms of policy-making. The methodological design of the study is based on discourse analysis as a major method, which allowed us to examine the policy choice of the Biden administration to provide massive and comprehensive support to Ukraine in a critical time of need. When describing US assistance, we apply historical institutionalism and rational choice institutionalism as the major theoretical paradigms, as there are features of both used by the United States in its bilateral relations with Ukraine. We operate within a confirmatory research design, where the major method is hypothesis testing. The scientific novelty consists of an attempt to conceptualize the so-called Biden doctrine in the context of American assistance to Ukraine in order to sustain it in the war against Russia. We test our hypothesis on three major dimensions: the President’s authority, Congress and the U.S. leadership of NATO, and the Defense Contact Group. The authors conclude that the amount of US support to Ukraine and its comprehensiveness, particularly economic and military aid, indicate that the Biden administration viewed Ukraine as a test of its vision of foreign policy, namely that democracies should prevail over autocracies. Therefore, the unprecedented amount of aid allocated to Ukraine suggests that the support will last as long as it takes.

The Intersection between China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Indonesia's Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) after Covid-19

In response to the current condition of political and economic conditions in Southeast Asia, this article will elaborate on the intersection between China’s and Indonesia’s foreign policy on two sides, negative and positive intersection by understanding the foreign policy vision of each country's policy. This study tries to explain the intersection of Belt Road Initiative (BRI) by China with Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) of Indonesia by using qualitative methods and collected data from library research. To deepen the understanding of how both states implemented their foreign policy, media analysis and national interest concept are used. The result indicates that Indonesia needs to respond to the foreign policy of China carefully. Moreover, the COVID-19 outbreak has altered the development of events on how the two missions from each country collide. Although every decision Indonesia has made regarding China’s BRI policy will not harm Indonesia’s national interest in the future, Indonesia will still have to tread carefully and imply wise decisions in its foreign policy, especially during the recovery period of COVID-19 pandemic.

Iran’s Look to the East Policy in the Framework of Bounded Rationality Model

Doğu’ya Bakış politikası; İran’ın, Batı ile yüzleşmek için Doğu ülkeleriyle ilişkilerini güçlendirmesini hedefleyen bir dış politika vizyonudur. İlk kez Cumhurbaşkanı Mahmud Ahmedinejad Dönemi’nde İran’ın maruz kaldığı yaptırım ve izolasyonu kırmak amacıyla uygulanmaya başlanmıştır. Ancak Hasan Ruhani’nin 2013 yılında cumhurbaşkanlığı görevine gelmesiyle birlikte izlediği Batı ile yapıcı angajman politikası kapsamında Doğu’ya Bakış politikasının Batı’yı dengeleme yönü ön plana çıkmıştır. ABD Başkanı Donald Trump’ın Mayıs 2018’de Kapsamlı Ortak Eylem Planı’ndan (KOEP, Nükleer Anlaşma) çekilerek İran’a karşı sert yaptırımlar uygulamasına istinaden İran dış politikasının yönü bir kez daha Doğu’ya dönmüştür. İran’da daha çok muhafazakâr cephe tarafından desteklenen Doğu’ya Bakış politikasının, İbrahim Reisi’nin Cumhurbaşkanı olmasıyla birlikte yeniden İran dış politikasında öne çıktığı görülmüştür. Ancak Reisi hükûmetinin uyguladığı şekliyle Doğu’ya Bakış politikası, çeşitli kısıtlama ve çıkmazlarla karşı karşıyadır. Bu makalenin amacı, söz konusu politikayı dış politika analizi modelleri arasında yeri olan sınırlı rasyonellik modeli perspektifinden değerlendirmek ve bu politikanın esasen mutlak bir rasyonel tercih olmadığını, dış politika karar alıcılarının sınırlı alternatifler arasından en uygun olanını seçmesiyle oluşan zorunlu ve kısıtlı bir tercih olduğunu ortaya koymaktır.

The Slovak Question in Foreign Policy Vision of the Second Rzeczpospolita Authorities (1938 – March 1939)

The Polish authorities had a negative attitude towards the central government of the Czechoslovak Republic at that time. Therefore, the Polish reprezentatives were in active contact with the opposition Glinka Slovak People’s Party. They had a number of common ideological values such as Slavic reciprocity, Catholicism, Anti-Bolshevism, and positive assessment of authoritarianism. The Polish politics assured that Warsaw supports state-building plans of the Slovak leaders and solemnly welcomed their delegation to Poland in May 1938. Polish-Slovak relations were marked by contradictions during and shortly after the Munich crisis. The Slovaks suggested state association and submitted a declaration on the Polish-Slovak union. But they did not receive an answer, so they agreed with the Prague government about granting Slovakia autonomy. The Polish authorities expected more pronounced separatism from the Slovaks. Warsaw made territorial claims for Slovak lands in the area of Spis and Orava because Poles wanted to push indecisive oppositionists. The ultimate form of the demands and the forceful nature of Polish actions demonstrated the real content of Warsaw’s policy towards Slovakia. These events resulted to the improvement of Czech-Slovak relations within the framework of Post Munich Czechoslovakia and also led to the appeal of Slovak politicians to Germany. Both sides tried to improve the atmosphere of bilateral relations during the winter of 1938-1939. Meetings of delegations were organized for discuss different ways to intensify positive cooperation. An influence of Nazi Germany was increasing in the region at that time. So, the realization of the danger, posed by Germans, was the main factor to Polish-Slovak rapprochement. In early March, Berlin organized a campaign to put pressure on Slovak politicians and persuaded them to secession. They tried in vain to put forward a Polish counterweight. The declaration of independence of Slovakia according to the German scenario marked the strategic failure of Polish foreign policy, because the southern border of the state became a zone of potential danger

A Feminist Reading of Turkish Foreign Policy and the S-400 Crisis

Hypermasculine hegemonic masculinities have become the norm to dominate the foreign policies all around the world. As the populist foreign-policy visions, the byproducts of androcentric norm-creation, undermine the established rules for peace, diplomacy and co-existence in the international system, other experiences have faded away from the narratives that have defined and contributed to foreign policies. The accelerating urgency of the national security agendas of the hypermasculine states seek to cancel feminist definitions, practices and theories for the sake of physical force and state control. Nevertheless, more than any other period in history, it is these conflicting times that necessitate Cynthia Enloe’s ‘curious feminist’ questions the most. Turkish foreign policy of the last decade has become a quintessential example of hypermasculine hegemonic masculinity, especially within the context of the S-400 crisis with the US, NATO and Russia; its feminist critics are distressingly rare. This paper aims to offer an alternative reading of Turkey’s S-400 saga from a feminist perspective to contribute a Turkish case to feminist International Relations. First a definition of feminist International Relations will be provided. Then, the hypermasculine character of the Turkish hegemonic masculinity and its reflection on the current Turkish foreign policy will be analyzed. Lastly, the S-400 crisis of Turkey’s decision to buy Russian defense missiles as a NATO member will be examined.

Reflections of the Reproduced State Identity on Turkish Foreign Policy: Crises With the USA

Factors such as regional-international developments, political, economic, social conditions and security understanding separate the foreign policies of the states from each other and differentiate the expectations of the countries in mutual relations. Turkish-American relations, which have a history of nearly seventy years, have seen a fluctuating course with sometimes cooperation and sometimes crises. Therefore, identifying the root causes of crises that arise from different reasons and damage bilateral relations gains importance in terms of collaboration between the two countries. In this context, this study argues that the reproduction of Turkey’s state identity in the changing international system after the Cold War caused crises in bilateral relations by differentiating foreign policy visions, threat perceptions and international goals with the United States. Based on this, the four crises, in the bilateral relations between Turkey and the United States, starting with the Syrian Civil War and continuing to the present day, will be examined in the dimensions of perception, discourse and politics. Then, possible policies are discussed through risks and opportunities to eliminate the tense atmosphere in Turkey-US relations. In the study, in addition to the literature review, the content and discourse analysis method is used methodologically by making use of the statements of policy makers.

Russia-GCC Economic Relations: When Quality Matters more than Quantity

During the last five years, Russian relations with the GCC have developed on a largely positive trajectory. Even Moscow’s decision to leave the OPEC+ agreement and launch a price war with Saudi Arabia in March 2020 did not threaten the gains made by Russian diplomacy in the region. Following a cooling-off period in 2012-2014 caused by the negative reaction of the GCC States to the Russian support of the Assad regime in Syria, the overall rapprochement continued. When explaining the complex mixture of factors that are driving Moscow’s dialogue with the GCC member states regardless of occasional political turbulence they usually refer to the growing intensity of Moscow’s presence in the region, changing dynamics of the U.S. relations with Russia and the GCC, existing tensions between Middle Eastern countries as well as the transformation of GCC foreign policy vision. Yet, the economic factors usually remain underestimated. Consequently, this article will try to prove the importance of the economic factors for the current development of Russia’s relations with the Gulf States. It will also assess the prospects for continued economic cooperation between GCC capitals and Moscow including an analysis of the ability of the sides to bring these relations to a new qualitative level.

Towards a two-dimensional analytical framework for understanding Georgian foreign policy: how party competition informs foreign policy analysis

ABSTRACT Studies explaining Georgian foreign policy present Tbilisi’s options as a dichotomy between the West and Russia, focusing either on power politics or personal characteristics of decision-makers. To paint a more nuanced and holistic picture, this article departs from these models and uses content analysis to explore what foreign policy visions political parties present to voters in their manifestos for parliamentary elections between 1992 and 2016. Grounding conclusions in empirical data, the article elaborates a novel analytical framework with two dimensions: alignment and orientation. This framework advances the understanding of foreign policy in two major ways. First, the framework reveals changes in foreign policy behavior that would normally be overlooked. Second, it shows that parties sometimes form pairs of circular foreign policy preferences (i.e., A > B > C > A). An added value of the framework is its potential application to other small states in the post-Soviet space and beyond.

МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЕ СВЯЗИ ПАРТИИ КАДЕТОВ

This article raises the problem of the international activities of the Cadet Party from 1906 to 1917. During this period, the Cadets were at the head of the foreign policy activities of the State Duma from the first to the fourth convocations. Firstly, the reason is that the cadets had a developed network of personal and professional contacts with Western politicians and journalists; secondly, they formulated their own vision of foreign policy, and were also ideologically close to the political elite of England and France. The Cadet Party used its international authority in two directions: on the one hand, this increased the party’s authority within the Russian society; on the other hand, Russia was drawing closer to its allies in the Entente. In this rapprochement, it is not so much the geopolitical aspect that is important as the establishment of horizontal ties between the societies of these countries, which allows building long-term friendly relations. This was the main feature of the activities of the Cadets – they did not have government powers, their activities did not lead to the conclusion of agreements, but it influenced public opinion both in Russia and abroad.

The Many Faces of China’s Belt and Road Initiative

China’s Belt and Road Initiative is best known as a massive set of infrastructure projects stretching from Asia to Europe. But more than that, it is a sweeping foreign policy vision that provides China with opportunities for deep engagement with virtually every aspect of state and society in its partner countries. Many developing countries welcome the investments and opportunities for trade linked to the initiative, but some of the projects have sparked local resistance over fears of unfair terms or potential opportunities for Chinese intelligence penetration.

As presidências portuguesas do Conselho da União Europeia: promovendo a "Europa global" em busca de relevância internacional

This article examines the legacy of the three Portuguese Presidencies of the Council of the European Union (1992, 2000 and 2007) in the framework of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). It places particular emphasis on the efforts undertaken by the national authorities to promote the EU’s global actorness as part of a strategy aimed at enhancing the country’s European credentials and international relevance. The study confirms the incremental prioritization of the CFSP/ESDP-related issues in the Portuguese EU presidencies’ agendas while concluding that, as a result of such tendency, one has witnessed the growing projection of Portugal’s vision of the European foreign policy.

Human Rights and the 1980 U.S. Presidential Election

Due to dramatic developments in international affairs and the starkly diverging foreign policy visions of the two candidates, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, foreign policy occupied a usually prominent role in the 1980 U.S. presidential election. A central component of the foreign policy debate was the appropriate role for human rights concerns in American foreign relations. Nevertheless, neither historians of U.S. presidential elections nor historians of human rights have devoted much attention to the issue. This article represents the first comprehensive study of the role of human rights in the 1980 U.S. presidential election. First, it examines the role of human rights in the foreign policy visions of the presidential candidates, focusing especially on Reagan’s criticism of Carter’s human rights policy. Second, it assesses the impact the issue of human rights had on the 1980 election and the way the 1980 election shaped the role of human rights in U.S. foreign policy.

Turkey’s Foreign Policy to Africa: The Role of Leaders’ Identity in Shaping Policy

The shift in bearing on the traditional status quo Turkish foreign policy orientation has recently been studied through various approaches commonly associated with changing trends, to seek the theoretical and methodological pillars that underpin the state’s policy behaviours towards new regions, including Africa. Accordingly, over the last two decades, ideas, linguistic constructs, identity, and religious and cultural factors have been added to an overarching and homogenous vision of Turkish foreign policy. Although identity-based theoretical studies explain dynamic changes in the Turkish foreign policy paradigm towards new regions, several of them fail to touch on how Turkish identities are translated into state policy. This article aims to address this by arguing that the effect of personality and leadership on the policymaking process of Turkey has become more visible over the last two decades, in tune with Turkey’s identity (neo-Ottomanism, Islam), which then evolves into state policies. The article opens avenues for further academic studies on two fronts. It accounts for the theoretical background of Turkey’s attachment to Africa through a constructivist approach, while responding to how Turkey’s identities are translated into state practice, an issue not sufficiently addressed in current literature.