Viral Load Dynamics Research Articles

Comparative cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies in the USA: a modelling study

BackgroundTo mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, countries worldwide have enacted unprecedented movement restrictions, physical distancing measures, and face mask requirements. Until safe and efficacious vaccines or antiviral drugs become widely available, viral testing remains the primary mitigation measure for rapid identification and isolation of infected individuals. We aimed to assess the economic trade-offs of expanding and accelerating testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across the USA in different transmission scenarios.MethodsWe used a multiscale model that incorporates SARS-CoV-2 transmission at the population level and daily viral load dynamics at the individual level to assess eight surveillance testing strategies that varied by testing frequency (from daily to monthly testing) and isolation period (1 or 2 weeks), compared with the status-quo strategy of symptom-based testing and isolation. For each testing strategy, we first estimated the costs (incorporating costs of diagnostic testing and admissions to hospital, and salary lost while in isolation) and years of life lost (YLLs) prevented under rapid and low transmission scenarios. We then assessed the testing strategies across a range of scenarios, each defined by effective reproduction number (Re), willingness to pay per YLL averted, and cost of a test, to estimate the probability that a particular strategy had the greatest net benefit. Additionally, for a range of transmission scenarios (Re from 1·1 to 3), we estimated a threshold test price at which the status-quo strategy outperforms all testing strategies considered.FindingsOur modelling showed that daily testing combined with a 2-week isolation period was the most costly strategy considered, reflecting increased costs with greater test frequency and length of isolation period. Assuming a societal willingness to pay of US$100 000 per YLL averted and a price of $5 per test, the strategy most likely to be cost-effective under a rapid transmission scenario (Re of 2·2) is weekly testing followed by a 2-week isolation period subsequent to a positive test result. Under low transmission scenarios (Re of 1·2), monthly testing of the population followed by 1-week isolation rather than 2-week isolation is likely to be most cost-effective. Expanded surveillance testing is more likely to be cost-effective than the status-quo testing strategy if the price per test is less than $75 across all transmission rates considered.InterpretationExtensive expansion of SARS-CoV-2 testing programmes with more frequent and rapid tests across communities coupled with isolation of individuals with confirmed infection is essential for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, resources recouped from shortened isolation duration could be cost-effectively allocated to more frequent testing.FundingUS National Institutes of Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Love, Tito's.

High SARS-CoV-2 load in the nasopharynx of patients with a mild form of COVID-19 is associated with clinical deterioration regardless of the hydroxychloroquine administration.

Because of the constantly growing numbers of COVID-19 infections and deaths, attempts were undertaken to find drugs with anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity among ones already approved for other pathologies. In the framework of such attempts, in a number of in vitro, as well as in vivo, models it was shown that hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has an effect against SARS-CoV-2. While there were not enough clinical data to support the use of HCQ, several countries including Russia have included HCQ in treatment protocols for infected patients and for prophylaxis. In the current non-randomized, observational study we evaluated the SARS-CoV-2 RNA in nasopharynx swabs from infected patients 7-10 days post symptoms with clinically mild disease and compared the viral RNA load dynamics between patients receiving HCQ (200 mg twice per day according to the Ministry of Health of Russian Federation treatment instructions, n = 33) and a control group without antiviral pharmacological therapy (n = 12). We found a statistically significant relationship between maximal RNA quantity and deterioration of patients' medical conditions, and as well we confirmed arterial hypertension to be a risk factor for people with COVID-19. However, we showed that at the dose used in the study HCQ therapy neither shortened the viral shedding period nor reduced the virus RNA load.

Everything counts - a method to determine viral suppression among people living with HIV using longitudinal data for the HIV care continuum - results of two large, German, multi-center real-life cohort studies over 20\u2009years (1999\u20132018)

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to develop a standardized method to reconstruct persons’ individual viral load (VL) courses to determine viral suppression and duration of viremia for the HIV care continuum in Germany using longitudinal cohort data.MethodsWe analyzed data from two large, multi-center German cohort studies under the direction of the Robert Koch Institute. We included data from 1999 to 2018 of all diagnosed people and of people who initiated antiretroviral treatment (ART). We developed a model generating virtual VL values and an individual VL course corresponding to real VL measurements with a maximum distance of 180 days, considering ART status and VL dynamics. If the distance between VL measurements was > 180 days, the time between was defined as gap time. Additionally, we considered blips, which we defined as a single detectable VL < 1000 copies/ml within 180 days.ResultsA total of 22,120 people (164,691 person-years, PY) after ART initiation were included in the analyses. The proportion of people with viral suppression (VL < 50 copies/ml) increased from 34% in 1999 to 93% in 2018. The proportion of people with VL < 200 copies/ml increased from 47% in 1999 to 96% in 2018. The proportion of people with viremia > 1000 copies/ml decreased from 37% in 1999 to 3% in 2018. The proportion of people with gap time fluctuated and ranged between 18 and 28%. An analysis of the first VL after gap time showed that 90% showed viral suppression, 5% VL between 50- < 1000 copies/ml and 5% VL > 1000 copies/ml.ConclusionWe provide a method for estimating viral suppression and duration of viremia using longitudinal VL data. We observed a continuous and remarkable increase of viral suppression. Furthermore, a notable proportion of those with viremia showed low-level viremia and were therefore unlikely to transmit HIV. Individual health risks and HIV drug resistance among those with low-level viremia are problematic, and viral suppression remains the goal. In 2018, 93 and 96% of people after ART initiation showed VL < 50 copies/ml and VL < 200 copies/ml, respectively. Therefore, using the threshold of VL < 200 copies/ml, Germany reached the UNAIDS 95 target of viral suppression since 2017.

Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study

SummaryBackgroundIn most countries, contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases are asked to quarantine for 14 days after exposure to limit asymptomatic onward transmission. While theoretically effective, this policy places a substantial social and economic burden on both the individual and wider society, which might result in low adherence and reduced policy effectiveness. We aimed to assess the merit of testing contacts to avert onward transmission and to replace or reduce the length of quarantine for uninfected contacts.MethodsWe used an agent-based model to simulate the viral load dynamics of exposed contacts, and their potential for onward transmission in different quarantine and testing strategies. We compared the performance of quarantines of differing durations, testing with either PCR or lateral flow antigen (LFA) tests at the end of quarantine, and daily LFA testing without quarantine, against the current 14-day quarantine strategy. We also investigated the effect of contact tracing delays and adherence to both quarantine and self-isolation on the effectiveness of each strategy.FindingsAssuming moderate levels of adherence to quarantine and self-isolation, self-isolation on symptom onset alone can prevent 37% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12–56) of onward transmission potential from secondary cases. 14 days of post-exposure quarantine reduces transmission by 59% (95% UI 28–79). Quarantine with release after a negative PCR test 7 days after exposure might avert a similar proportion (54%, 95% UI 31–81; risk ratio [RR] 0·94, 95% UI 0·62–1·24) to that of the 14-day quarantine period, as would quarantine with a negative LFA test 7 days after exposure (50%, 95% UI 28–77; RR 0·88, 0·66–1·11) or daily testing without quarantine for 5 days after tracing (50%, 95% UI 23–81; RR 0·88, 0·60–1·43) if all tests are returned negative. A stronger effect might be possible if individuals isolate more strictly after a positive test and if contacts can be notified faster.InterpretationTesting might allow for a substantial reduction in the length of, or replacement of, quarantine with a small excess in transmission risk. Decreasing test and trace delays and increasing adherence will further increase the effectiveness of these strategies. Further research is required to empirically evaluate the potential costs (increased transmission risk, false reassurance) and benefits (reduction in the burden of quarantine, increased adherence) of such strategies before adoption as policy.FundingNational Institute for Health Research, UK Research and Innovation, Wellcome Trust, EU Horizon 2021, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Zika virus dynamics: Effects of inoculum dose, the innate immune response and viral interference.

Experimental Zika virus infection in non-human primates results in acute viral load dynamics that can be well-described by mathematical models. The inoculum dose that would be received in a natural infection setting is likely lower than the experimental infections and how this difference affects the viral dynamics and immune response is unclear. Here we study a dataset of experimental infection of non-human primates with a range of doses of Zika virus. We develop new models of infection incorporating both an innate immune response and viral interference with that response. We find that such a model explains the data better than models with no interaction between virus and the immune response. We also find that larger inoculum doses lead to faster dynamics of infection, but approximately the same total amount of viral production.

Dynamics of viral RNA load, virus culture, seroconversion & infectivity in COVID-19 patients: Implications on isolation policy.

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has spread all over the world due to rapid person-to-person transmission. More information about viral load dynamics and replication is needed for clarity on duration of infectiousness of an individual, along with its implications on transmission. This is important to healthcare facilities and public health authorities in formulating guidance on the duration of isolation for patients and return to work criteria for healthcare workers. The duration of detection of viral RNA by molecular methods in the upper respiratory tract has ranged from 2 to 12 wk. Viral RNA detection by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) does not necessarily mean that the individual is infectious to others, as the detected virus may not be replication competent. Infectious virus is generally not shed beyond 20 days of the onset of symptoms in most patients, including severely ill and immunocompromised, as indicated by failure to isolate replication-competent virus beyond this timeline in available studies. Further, detection of neutralizing antibodies in the serum, although associated with positive RT-PCR, is generally not associated with infectious virus shedding as indicated by negative viral cultures beyond this period. In this review, we analyze the current literature on the dynamics of viral load, culture, seroconversion and their implications on infectivity and the duration of isolation precautions for COVID-19 patients.

SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA load dynamics in the nasopharynx of infected children.

It is important to understand the temporal trend of the paediatric severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load to estimate the transmission potential of children in schools and communities. We determined the differences in SARS-CoV-2 viral load dynamics between nasopharyngeal samples of infected asymptomatic and symptomatic children. Serial cycle threshold values of SARS-CoV-2 from the nasopharynx of a cohort of infected children were collected for analysis. Among 17 infected children, 10 (58.8%) were symptomatic. Symptomatic children, when compared to asymptomatic children, had higher viral loads (mean cycle threshold on day 7 of illness 28.6 vs. 36.7, P = 0.02). Peak SARS-CoV-2 viral loads occurred around day 2 of illness in infected children. Although we were unable to directly demonstrate infectivity, the detection of significant amount of virus in the upper airway of asymptomatic children suggest that they have the potential to shed and transmit SARS-CoV-2. Our study highlights the importance of contact tracing and screening for SARS-CoV-2 in children with epidemiological risk factors regardless of their symptom status, in order to improve containment of the virus in the community, including educational settings.

The newborns Torque teno virus dynamics depending on the term, feeding type and maternal viral load.

The first weeks of life are extremely important for the development of the immunity-virome interaction that affects human health in adulthood. In this study we analyzed Torque teno virus (TTV) dynamics during the first weeks of life in the full-term/premature infants in relation with the maternal TTV load and the type of feeding. 152 infants aged 1-14 weeks (63 full-term and 89 premature) and 33 mother-child pairs were analyzed for the whole blood TTV load by qPCR with test sensitivity of 1000 viral copies/ml. 50 infants were retested (at 2-11 time points) for TTV dynamics data. All one-week babies (n=71) from TTV-positive mothers were TTV-negative, consistently with the previous findings of the lack of transplacental transmission of the virus. TTV was not detectable in newborns under two weeks of age. Most infants are TTV-positive by 14 weeks of age. Whole blood TTV load does not show significant correlation with full-term/prematurity, maternal TTV load, or feeding type. Keywords: Torque teno virus; transfusion-transmitted virus; commensal virus; TTV; viral load dynamics; TORCH infections; full-term and premature babies; breastfeeding; virome.

Интравагинальная пробиотическая терапия как способ управления ВПЧ-инфекцией женских гениталий

Objective. To study the possibility of managing human papillomavirus (HPV) infection using intravaginal probiotic therapy. Patients and methods. In the first phase, a retrospective analysis of outpatient medical records of 125 patients for 2 years was caried out to assess the HPV infection outcomes depending on the initial viral load and the state of normal microbial flora. In the second phase (prospective analysis), 43 HPV-positive patients with Lactobacillus deficiency who received (n = 20) or did not receive (n = 23) intravaginal probiotic were selected. The dynamics of HPV viral load were evaluated during the study. The dynamics of Lactobacillus abundance under the influence of probiotic in the groups with different HPV infection outcomes were analyzed. Results. The outcome of HPV infection with HPV viral load of ≤5 lg DNA copies/106 cells depended on the state of normal microbial flora; the value of normal microbial flora with HPV viral load of 5 lg DNA copies/106 cells was not significant. Intravaginal probiotic therapy in combination with antiviral drug in HPV-positive patients with Lactobacillus deficiency was more effective in improving the HPV infection outcomes. A decrease in viral load or HPV elimination was more likely to occur if normal microbial flora was restored as a result of probiotic therapy. Conclusion. Adding intravaginal probiotic therapy with Lactoginal® to antiviral treatment is an effective way to manage HPV infection in the female reproductive tract. Key words: human papillomavirus, vagina, lactobacilli, cervix, epithelial cells

520. Longitudinal Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Viruses in Hospitalized Adults

BackgroundThe rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been accompanied by the emergence of viral mutations, some of which may have distinct virological and clinical consequences. While whole genome sequencing efforts have worked to map this viral diversity at the population level, little is known about how SARS-CoV-2 may diversify within a host over time. This is particularly important for understanding the emergence of viral resistance to therapeutic interventions and immune pressure. The goal of this study was to assess the change in viral load and viral genome sequence within patients over time and determine if these changes correlate with clinical and/or demographic parameters.MethodsHospitalized patients admitted to Northwestern Memorial Hospital with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test were enrolled in a longitudinal study for the serial collection of nasopharyngeal specimens. Swabs were administered to patients by hospital staff every 4 ± 1 days for up to 32 days or until the patients were discharged. RNA was extracted from each specimen and viral loads were calculated by quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR). Specimens with qRT-PCR cycle threshold values less than or equal to 30 were subject to whole viral genome sequencing by reverse transcription, multiplex PCR, and deep sequencing. Variant populations sizes were estimated and subject to phylogenetic analysis relative to publicly available SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Sequence and viral load data were subsequently correlated to available demographic and clinical data.Results60 patients were enrolled from March 26th to June 20th, 2020. We observed an overall decrease in nasopharyngeal viral load over time across all patients. However, the temporal dynamics of viral load differed on a patient-by-patient basis. Several mutations were also observed to have emerged within patients over time.Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in serially collected nasopharyngeal swabs in hospitalized adults as determined by qRT-PCR. Samples were collected every 4 ± 1 days (T#1–8) and viral load is displayed by log(copy number). ConclusionThese data indicate that SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in the nasopharynx decrease over time and that the virus can accumulate mutations during replication within individual patients. Future studies will examine if some of these mutations may provide fitness advantages in the presence of therapeutic and/or immune selective pressures.DisclosuresMichael G. Ison, MD MS, AlloVir (Consultant)

Innate Immunity Plays a Key Role in Controlling Viral Load in COVID-19: Mechanistic Insights from a Whole-Body Infection Dynamics Model.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a pathogen of immense public health concern. Efforts to control the disease have only proven mildly successful, and the disease will likely continue to cause excessive fatalities until effective preventative measures (such as a vaccine) are developed. To develop disease management strategies, a better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and population susceptibility to infection are needed. To this end, mathematical modeling can provide a robust in silico tool to understand COVID-19 pathophysiology and the in vivo dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Guided by ACE2-tropism (ACE2 receptor dependency for infection) of the virus and by incorporating cellular-scale viral dynamics and innate and adaptive immune responses, we have developed a multiscale mechanistic model for simulating the time-dependent evolution of viral load distribution in susceptible organs of the body (respiratory tract, gut, liver, spleen, heart, kidneys, and brain). Following parameter quantification with in vivo and clinical data, we used the model to simulate viral load progression in a virtual patient with varying degrees of compromised immune status. Further, we ranked model parameters through sensitivity analysis for their significance in governing clearance of viral load to understand the effects of physiological factors and underlying conditions on viral load dynamics. Antiviral drug therapy, interferon therapy, and their combination were simulated to study the effects on viral load kinetics of SARS-CoV-2. The model revealed the dominant role of innate immunity (specifically interferons and resident macrophages) in controlling viral load, and the importance of timing when initiating therapy after infection.

Epidemiological profile of SARS-CoV-2 among selected regions in Ghana: A cross-sectional retrospective study.

BackgroundGlobal cases of COVID-19 continue to rise, causing havoc to several economies. So far, Ghana has recorded 48,643 confirmed cases with 320 associated deaths. Although summaries of data are usually provided by the Ministry of Health, detailed epidemiological profile of cases are limited. This study sought to describe the socio-demographic features, pattern of COVID-19 spread and the viral load dynamics among subjects residing in northern, middle and part of the southern belt of Ghana.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional retrospective study that reviewed records of samples collected from February to July, 2020. Respiratory specimens such as sputum, deep-cough saliva and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from suspected COVID-19 subjects in 12 regions of Ghana for laboratory analysis and confirmation by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).ResultsA total of 72,434 samples were collected during the review period, with majority of the sampled individuals being females (37,464; 51.9%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 identified in the study population was 13.2% [95%CI: 12.9, 13.4). Males were mostly infected (4,897; 51.5%) compared to females. Individuals between the ages 21–30 years recorded the highest number of infections (3,144, 33.4%). Symptomatic subjects had higher viral loads (1479.7 copies/μl; IQR = 40.6–178919) than asymptomatic subjects (49.9; IQR = 5.5–3641.6). There was significant association between gender or age and infection with SARS-CoV-2 (p<0.05). Among all the suspected clinical presentations, anosmia was the strongest predictor of SARS-CoV-2 infection (Adj. OR (95%CI): 24.39 (20.18, 29.49). We observed an average reproductive number of 1.36 with a minimum of 1.28 and maximum of 1.43. The virus trajectory shows a gradual reduction of the virus reproductive number.ConclusionThis study has described the epidemiological profile of COVID-19 cases in northern, middle and part of the southern belt of Ghana, with males and younger individuals at greater risk of contracting the disease. Health professionals should be conscious of individuals presenting with anosmia since this was seen as the strongest predictor of virus infection.

Dynamics of viral load and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in patients with positive RT-PCR results after recovery from COVID-19.

Recently, the number of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who have tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), via the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, after recovery has increased; this has caused a dilemma regarding the medical measures and policies. We evaluated the dynamics of viral load and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in four patients with positive RT-PCR results after recovery. In all patients, the highest levels of immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgM antibodies were reached after about a month of the onset of the initial symptoms. Then, the IgG titers plateaued, and the IgM titers decreased, regardless of RT-PCR results. The IgG and IgM levels did not increase after the post-negative positive RT-PCR results in any of the patients. Our results reinforced that the post-negative positive RT-PCR results may be due to the detection of RNA particles rather than reinfection in individuals who have recovered from COVID-19.

Dynamic aspects of ORF1ab and N RNA cycle threshold values among COVID-19 patients in China.

The dynamics of viral loads among COVID-19 patients in Changzhou, China were evaluated using dynamic random effects models. The models were estimated by maximum likelihood methods allowing for between and within patient variations. Statistical criteria were developed for focusing on viral RNAs for clinical decision making. The empirical results showed that inflammation among patients were significant predictors of cycle threshold values for ORF1ab and N RNAs. Moreover, within subject variations were higher in Ct values of ORF1ab RNA indicating that assessment of N RNA may be adequate in resource-poor settings. The inter-relationships between ORF1ab and N RNAs were investigated and the need for developing comprehensive models for viral load dynamics is emphasized.

SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV viral load dynamics, duration of viral shedding, and infectiousness: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundViral load kinetics and duration of viral shedding are important determinants for disease transmission. We aimed to characterise viral load dynamics, duration of viral RNA shedding, and viable virus shedding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in various body fluids, and to compare SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) viral dynamics.MethodsIn this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched databases, including MEDLINE, Embase, Europe PubMed Central, medRxiv, and bioRxiv, and the grey literature, for research articles published between Jan 1, 2003, and June 6, 2020. We included case series (with five or more participants), cohort studies, and randomised controlled trials that reported SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, or MERS-CoV infection, and reported viral load kinetics, duration of viral shedding, or viable virus. Two authors independently extracted data from published studies, or contacted authors to request data, and assessed study quality and risk of bias using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist tools. We calculated the mean duration of viral shedding and 95% CIs for every study included and applied the random-effects model to estimate a pooled effect size. We used a weighted meta-regression with an unrestricted maximum likelihood model to assess the effect of potential moderators on the pooled effect size. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020181914.Findings79 studies (5340 individuals) on SARS-CoV-2, eight studies (1858 individuals) on SARS-CoV, and 11 studies (799 individuals) on MERS-CoV were included. Mean duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding was 17·0 days (95% CI 15·5–18·6; 43 studies, 3229 individuals) in upper respiratory tract, 14·6 days (9·3–20·0; seven studies, 260 individuals) in lower respiratory tract, 17·2 days (14·4–20·1; 13 studies, 586 individuals) in stool, and 16·6 days (3·6–29·7; two studies, 108 individuals) in serum samples. Maximum shedding duration was 83 days in the upper respiratory tract, 59 days in the lower respiratory tract, 126 days in stools, and 60 days in serum. Pooled mean SARS-CoV-2 shedding duration was positively associated with age (slope 0·304 [95% CI 0·115–0·493]; p=0·0016). No study detected live virus beyond day 9 of illness, despite persistently high viral loads, which were inferred from cycle threshold values. SARS-CoV-2 viral load in the upper respiratory tract appeared to peak in the first week of illness, whereas that of SARS-CoV peaked at days 10–14 and that of MERS-CoV peaked at days 7–10.InterpretationAlthough SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding in respiratory and stool samples can be prolonged, duration of viable virus is relatively short-lived. SARS-CoV-2 titres in the upper respiratory tract peak in the first week of illness. Early case finding and isolation, and public education on the spectrum of illness and period of infectiousness are key to the effective containment of SARS-CoV-2.FundingNone.

Comparative Cost-Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 Testing Strategies

Background: To mitigate the coronavirus pandemic that emerged in 2019 (COVID-19), countries worldwide have enacted unprecedented movement restrictions, social distancing measures, and face mask requirements. Until safe and efficacious vaccines or antiviral drugs become widely available, viral testing remains the primary mitigation measure for rapid identification and isolation of infected cases. Methods: We evaluate the economic tradeoffs of expanding and accelerating SARS-CoV-2 testing using a multi-scale model that incorporates SARS-CoV-2 transmission at the population level and daily viral load dynamics at the individual level. Findings: Assuming a willingness-to-pay of $100,000 per year of life lost (YLL) and a price of $5 per test, the strategy most likely to be cost-effective under a rapid transmission scenario (Re > 2) is daily testing followed by a one-week rather than two-week isolation period subsequent to test confirmation. Under lower transmission scenarios, weekly testing of the population is expected to be more cost effective. Expanded surveillance testing is expected to be cost effective if the price per test is less than $400 across all transmission rates considered. Interpretation: Extensive expansion of testing coupled with isolation of confirmed cases is essential for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic. Further, resources recouped from shortened isolation duration could be cost-effectively allocated to more frequent testing.Funding Statement: US National Institutes of Health and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.Ethics Approval Statement: Not applicable.

On the extinction of continuous-state branching processes in random environments

This paper establishes a model of continuous-state branching processes with time inhomogeneous competition in Levy random environments. Some results on extinction are presented, including the distribution of the extinction time, the limiting distribution conditioned on large extinction times and the asymptotic behavior near extinction. This paper also provides a new time-space transformation which can be used for further exploration in similar models. The results are applied to an epidemic model to describe the dynamics of infectious population and a virus model to describe the dynamics of viral load.

Molecular and serological characterization of SARS-CoV-2 infection among COVID-19 patients

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 is a novel coronavirus and the cause of COVID-19. More than 80% of COVID-19 patients exhibit mild or moderate symptoms. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of viral load and antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in a longitudinal cohort of COVID-19 patients with severe and mild/moderate diseases. MethodsDemographic and clinical information were obtained. Serial samples of blood, nasal and pharyngeal and anal swabs were collected at different time points post-onset. SARS-CoV-2 RNA and anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured by qRT-PCR and immunoassays, respectively. ResultsRespiratory SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detectable in 58.0% (58/100) COVID-19 patients upon admission and lasted for a median of 13 days post-onset. In addition, 5.9% (1/17) and 20.2% (19/94) of the blood and anal swab specimens were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, respectively. Anal viral RNA was more frequently detected in the patients who were positive for viral RNA in the respiratory samples upon admission. Specific anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody developed within two weeks after onset, reached peak approximately 17 days post-onset and then maintained at relatively high level up to 50 days we analyzed in most patients. However, the levels of antibodies were variable among the patients. High titers of antibodies appeared to be associated with the severity of the disease. Furthermore, viral proteins from different sources showed significant difference of serological sensitivity especially during the first week post-onset. ConclusionsOur results indicate rapid clearance or self-elimination of viral RNA in about half of the COVID-19 patients upon admission. Viral RNA shedding of SARS-CoV-2 occurred in multiple tissues including the respiratory system, blood, and intestine. Variable levels of specific anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody may be associated with disease severity. These findings have shed light on viral kinetics and antibody response in COVID-19 patients and provide scientific evidence for infection control and patient management.

RNAemia Corresponds to Disease Severity and Antibody Response in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) represents a global health emergency. To improve the understanding of the systemic component of SARS-CoV-2, we investigated if viral load dynamics in plasma and respiratory samples are associated with antibody response and severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found in plasma samples from 14 (44%) out of 32 patients. RNAemia was detected in 5 out of 6 fatal cases. Peak IgG values were significantly lower in mild/moderate than in severe (0.6 (interquartile range, IQR, 0.4–3.2) vs. 11.8 (IQR, 9.9–13.0), adjusted p = 0.003) or critical cases (11.29 (IQR, 8.3–12.0), adjusted p = 0.042). IgG titers were significantly associated with virus Ct (Cycle threshold) value in plasma and respiratory specimens ((ß = 0.4, 95% CI (confidence interval, 0.2; 0.5), p < 0.001 and ß = 0.5, 95% CI (0.2; 0.6), p = 0.002). A classification as severe or a critical case was additionally inversely associated with Ct values in plasma in comparison to mild/moderate cases (ß = −3.3, 95% CI (−5.8; 0.8), p = 0.024 and ß = −4.4, 95% CI (−7.2; 1.6), p = 0.007, respectively). Based on the present data, our hypothesis is that the early stage of SARS-CoV-2 infection is characterized by a primary RNAemia, as a potential manifestation of a systemic infection. Additionally, the viral load in plasma seems to be associated with a worse disease outcome.

Fecal viral shedding in COVID-19 patients: Clinical significance, viral load dynamics and survival analysis

BackgroundTo investigate the clinical significance, viral shedding duration and viral load dynamics of positive fecal SARS-CoV-2 signals in COVID-19. MethodsCOVID-19 patients were included. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was tested in stool and respiratory specimens until two sequential negative results were obtained. Clinical, laboratory and imaging data were recorded. ResultsOf the 69 COVID-19 patients, 20 (28.99 %) had positive fecal viral tests who were younger, had lower C-reactive protein (CRP) and fibrinogen (FIB) levels on admission (all P < 0.05), and showed more improvement and less progression on chest CT during recovery. The median duration of positive viral signals was significantly longer in stool samples than in respiratory samples (P < 0.05). In spite of the negative oropharyngeal swabs, eleven patients were tested positive for viral RNA in stool specimens, with their fecal SARS-CoV-2 RNA Ct (cycle threshold) values reaching 25–27. 6 of these 11 patients' Ct values rebounded. ConclusionSARS-CoV-2 RNA in stool specimens was associated with a milder condition and better recovery of chest CT results while the median duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA persistence was significantly longer in fecal samples than in oropharyngeal swabs. The fecal viral load easily reached a high level and rebounded even though respiratory signals became negative.