COVID-19 Virus Infection Research Articles

Перебіг СОVID-19 в імуноскомпроментованих пацієнтів

Purpose - to analyze the currently described variants of the course of COVID-19 in immunocompromised patients in order to inform the medical community and focus on this problem. Two clinical cases of different course of COVID-19 in patients with primary immunodeficiencies, both mild, asymptomatic and severe, with a fatal outcome, are presented. In the first case, in a child with Nijmegen breakage syndrome, despite lymphopenia, the course of SARS-CoV-2 was asymptomatic, which may be due to the regular administration of immunoglobulin for replacement purposes. The peculiarity of the second case was a repeated episode of COVID-19 in an immunocompromised child with APECED. The first episode of COVID-19 in September 2020 had a mild course, but led to the manifestation of immunodeficiency symptoms. The present symptoms (retinopathy, hepatitis), except for mild mucosal candidiasis, are not part of the triad of classic APECED symptoms, although along with the reaction to the live vaccine, they made it possible to suspect immunodeficiency. Immunosuppressive therapy contributed to stabilization of hepatitis, but ocular symptoms were without positive dynamics. The second episode of COVID-19 was observed in January 2022. It proceeded with prolonged fever for 2 weeks, which was resistant to treatment, with progressive cytopenia, hypoproteinemia, hypoalbuminemia, signs of active hepatitis, hyperferritinemia, elevated triglycerides; coagulopathy with low fibrinogen levels. Subsequently, signs of pneumonia were added, confirmed by radiology. Another feature of this case was the presence of a mixed infection - COVID-19 and Epstein-Barr virus infection. The cause of death in this case was not only COVID-19 pneumonia, but also progressive macrophage activation syndrome. Conclusions. Thus, the sequence of COVID-19 in patients with inborn errors of immunity can be either asymptomatic and mild or fatal, depending on the type of immune disorders, the therapy received, and concomitant conditions. SARS-CoV-2 in immunocompromised individuals requires close attention for timely diagnosis of life-threatening conditions. The research was carried out in accordance with the principles of the Helsinki Declaration. The informed consent of the patient was obtained for conducting the studies. No conflict of interests was declared by the authors.

Inclusiveness of Financial Activities of Hotel Institutions during the Covid-19 Pandemic

Scientific work on “Inclusiveness of Financial Activities of Hotel Institutions During the Covid-19 Pandemic” aims to conduct a financial analysis of the state of the hotel services market in Ukraine and the world during the period of active progression of the Covid-19 virus infection.
 The purpose of the article. The aim of the work was to study the peculiarities of the financial development of the hotel industry in the pandemic in the world and in Ukraine.
 The methodology. The totality of research methods is a methodology for analyzing and organizing the main legislative acts and laws, namely the methods of generalization, comparison, chronology, analysis and generalization. Segment diagramming, elements of financial analysis, as a digital display of the state of the economic level of development are used to visualize the state of the hotel business market.
 The results of the research. The study analyzes the level of change in sales revenue from the hotel business in Ukraine. The regions of Ukraine were divided into the main tourist regions and the structure of accommodation facilities by types and specialized accommodation facilities have been developed.
 The scientific work considers the hotel industry as elements of the market of services of Ukraine, so the distribution of accommodation is divided into in the following regions: central region, northern region and western and southern regions. The location of hotel business establishments is appropriately structured.
 Conclusions that were made indicate the need to improve the quality of services while expanding their range, which is due to the ever-increasing demands of consumers in accordance with the requirements of advanced technologies. A significant expansion of the range of accommodation (apartments, villas, holiday homes, country and guest houses, chalets, etc.) will best guide different groups of tourists and diversify the types of recreation.
 The presented paper depicts relevant and necessary research that will help hotel business leaders to respond in a timely manner to financial threats. During the Covid-19 pandemic, it is important to monitor the state of the Ukrainian services market, timely implement all possible security measures and prevent the impact of adverse factors on the development of the hotel business.

Possible Therapeutic Targets from Derivatives of Natural Marine Products Based on PI3K/AKT Dependent Inhibitors in Viral Infection COVID-19.

Natural resources have long played a prominent part in conventional treatments as a parental source due to their multifaceted functions and lesser side effects. The diversity of marine products is a significant source of possible bioactive chemical compounds with a wide range of potential medicinal applications. Marine organisms produce natural compounds and new drugs with unique properties are produced from these compounds. A lot of bioactive compounds with medicinal properties are extracted from marine invertebrates, including Peptides, Alkaloids, Terpenoids, Steroids. Thus, it can be concluded that marine ecosystems are endowed with natural resources that have a wide range of medicinal properties, and it is important to examine the therapeutic and pharmacological capabilities of these molecules. So, finding particular inhibitors of the COVID-19 in natural compounds will be extremely important. Natural ingredients, in this light, could be a valuable resource in the progression of COVID-19 therapeutic options. Controlling the immunological response in COVID-19 patients may be possible by addressing the PI3K/Akt pathway and regulating T cell responses. T cell effector activity can be improved by preventing anti-viral exhaustion by suppressing PI3K and Akt during the early anti-viral response. The diversity of marine life is a significant supply of potentially bioactive chemical compounds with a broad range of medicinal uses. In this study, some biologically active compounds from marine organisms capable of inhibiting PI3K/AKT and the possible therapeutic targets from these compounds in viral infection COVID-19 have been addressed.

Смисъл и социална криза – философия на пандемията

The article examines the underlying philosophical and existential questions, as well as the moral dilemmas related to the management of restrictive measures imposed during a pandemic. The issue of trust in the management of experts, which is relevant during the social crisis, are examined, and their deep meaningful connection with the philosophical teachings of Plato and Kant is noted. The paper also addresses the issue of human rights and freedoms and ways to interpret them in a situation of limitations and restrictions in order to curb the power of the COVID-19 virus infection.

Impact of asymptomatic and mild COVID-19 infection on fetal growth during pregnancy

BackgroundDuring pregnancy, certain viral infections are known to significantly affect fetal development. Data regarding the impact of COVID-19 viral infection in pregnancy, specifically in asymptomatic or mild cases, remains limited. This presents a challenge in providing prenatal counseling and antepartum surveillance in pregnancies complicated by COVID-19 infection. Placenta studies have demonstrated that vascular malperfusion patterns attributed to COVID-19 appear to depend on the timing of infection. Given these placental changes, we aim to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on fetal growth in pregnant patients with asymptomatic or mild disease, stratified by trimester of infection. We hypothesize that COVID-19 infection, especially early in pregnancy, increases the risk of fetal growth restriction (FGR).Study design.This is a single institution, retrospective cohort study of patients ages 16–55 years old with a singleton delivery between December 10, 2020, and April 19, 2021 who had not received a COVID-19 vaccination prior to delivery. COVID-19 infection during pregnancy was defined as a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test. FGR was defined as an estimated fetal weight less than the 10th percentile for gestational age or abdominal circumference less than the 10th percentile for gestational age. Maternal and fetal characteristics, including FGR, were compared between women with versus without COVID-19 infection during pregnancy. ResultsAmong 1971 women with a singleton delivery, 208 (10.6 %) had a prior asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 infection during pregnancy. With the exception in the median prenatal BMI being significantly higher in the COVID-19 group (median, 27.5 vs 26.3, p = 0.04), there were no significant differences in demographics, baseline maternal comorbidities or gestational age between those with versus without COVID-19 infection during pregnancy, or in the proportion of their offspring with FGR (3.4 % (7/208) vs 4.8 % (84/1763), p = 0.36). When the 208 women were stratified by the timing of their COVID-19 infection, the proportion with an offspring with FGR was 8.7 % (2/23), 1.2 % (1/84), and 4.0 % (4/101), for those first diagnosed with COVID-19 during the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd trimesters, respectively (p = 0.72 Cochran-Armitage test for trend). ConclusionAsymptomatic or mild COVID-19 infection in pregnancy, regardless of timing of infection, does not appear to be associated with FGR. Routine serial fetal growth assessment may not be warranted solely for history of COVID-19 infection.

ARTERIAL THROMBOSIS- A COMPLICATION OF COVID-19 PNEUMONIA: A CASE SERIES REPORT

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 virus infection in December 2019, the virus has rapidly spread across the globe causing pandemic. A variety of vascular complications have been associated with novel COVID-19 virus infection such as venous and arterial thromboembolism. Arterial thrombosis is a recognized complication of COVID -19 pneumonia suggesting the possibility of deranged coagulation profile induced by the COVID-19 virus. Arterial thrombosis can be both early and delayed manifestation of COVID-19 infection with varying presentation depending on the system involved and it can occur in patients with or without comorbidities thus prompting physicians for its early diagnosis, management and reduction of associated complications. We discuss six cases of COVID-19 patients with pulmonary and systemic arterial thrombosis with varying presentations.

The Perfect Wudhu Practice as a Prevention Mechanism to Reduce the Covid-19 Virus Infection

The covid-19 pandemic has changed the habitual practices of human life that have been practiced for so long. People all over the world have been introduced to a new form of habit termed the new norm. Several Standard Operational Procedures (SOP) have been introduced to curb the spread of this epidemic. However, the question arises whether these preventive measures are a new thing that has never existed before? Similarly, is there a similarity between the practice of SOP that must be on everyone today with the practices that have been practiced according to the disciplines of science and the religion of Islam. This study uses a qualitative method that uses the design of library research and document review. The results show that there are similarities between the practice of SOP outlined by the Ministry of Health Malaysia (MOH) and the World Health Organization (WHO) produced based on scientific studies with the practice of ablution that has long been organized by the holy religion of Islam. These findings have further added to the knowledge and confidence about the position of the disciplines of science and religion which are so beautifully complementary to each other. Further this evidence has directly rejected the ideas of dualism and secularism that separate religion from everyday life.

Repurposing Thalidomide, its Analogue and Apremilast for Possible Antiviral in Situation of Severe COVID Cytokine Syndrome.

COVID-19, caused by SARS-corona virus-2, is a globally expanded public health risk at a bizarre level. In this current situation, COVID-19 has become a serious emerging pandemic. Drug reusing is a crucial step in identifying the new uses of old established drugs. To achieve a significant and healthy way of treatment in COVID patients within a short duration, drug repurposing is a novel method. The present study concentrated on the molecular docking of thalidomide and its analogues and Apremilast against Coronavirus infectious symptoms, and evaluated virus proteins (Spike Protein, 3cl Protease, Nucleocapsids). The present study explores the possibility of repurposing thalidomide for the treatment of SARS-COV-2 infection by assessing and confirming with docking affinity scores of thalidomide and its analogues and Apremilast, with spike protein, 3cl protease, and nucleocapsids. From the study results, thalidomide, pomalidomide, lenalidomide, and Apremilast exhibited better binding affinity to N Protein (4KXJ), Protease (4WY3) and Spike Protein (5WRG). In comparison to targets, N Protein - 4KXJ is the best for the four ligands. It is finalized that all four ligands (Thalidomide -8.6, Pomalidomide -8.8, Lenalidomide, and -8.2,and Apremilast -8.1) have good docking scores with the target N Protein. The present study confirms that thalidomide and its analogues and apremilast are a better fit for treating high risk patients of COVID-19 viral infection, which are supposed to promote beneficial effects for both respiratory illnesses like COVID-19 symptoms as well as improve the pathological state of condition.

Physiological Workload Analysis on the Use of Face Masks during Physical Activities

During the COVID-19 pandemic people are required to limit outside activities and keep following social distancing protocol. However, several studies have reported that indoor exercises have a greater risk toward COVID-19 virus infection. Therefore, wearing a mask during light to moderate intensity of outdoor physical activity is still recommended. We conduct an experiment to analyze physiological ergonomics aspect, whether people wearing different type of masks during physical activities and distraction of music would affect heart rate. Analysis of the average heart rate data was carried out using the calculation of VO2max and Energy Expenditure to determine the workload level of the four scenarios of treatment combination. The result shows a heavy level of physical load on the use of surgical mask with distraction of music and moderate level of physical load on the use of surgical without distraction of music.

The Efficacious Benefit of 25-Hydroxy Vitamin D to Prevent COVID-19: An In-Silico Study Targeting SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein

The environment has rapidly looked at proven specialist task forces in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic to build public health policies and measures to mitigate the effects of emerging coronaviruses. According to the researchers, taking 10 μg of 25-hydroxy vitamin D daily is recommended to keep us safe. There have been several studies recently indicating that there is a reduced risk of contracting Coronavirus by 25-hydroxy vitamin D consumption, even though there is no scientific data to prove that one would not affect the COVID-19 viral infection by 25-hydroxy vitamin D consumption. In this regard, the present study investigates the important literature and the role of 25-hydroxy vitamin D to prevent COVID-19 infection by conducting an in-silico study with SARS-CoV-2 spike protein as a target. Lopinavir, a previously reported drug candidate, served as a reference standard for the study. MD simulations were carried out to improve predictions of receptor-ligand complexes which offer novelty and strength to the current study. MD simulation protocols were explored and subjected to 25-hydroxy vitamin D and a known drug, Lopinavir. Comparison of ligands at refined models to the crystal structure led to promising results. Appropriate timescale simulations have been used to understand the activation mechanism, the role of water networks for receptor function, and the ligand binding process. Furthermore, MD simulations in combination with free energy calculations have also been carried out for lead optimization, evaluation of ligand binding modes, and assessment of ligand selectivity. From the results, 25-hydroxy vitamin D was discovered to have the vital interaction and highest potency in LBE, lower RMSD, and lower inhibition intensity similar to the standard. The findings from the current study suggested that 25-hydroxy vitamin D would be more effective in treating COVID-19. Compared with Lopinavir, 25-hydroxy vitamin D had the most potent interaction with the putative binding sites of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein of COVID-19.

Therapeutic Profile of Glycyrrhiza glabra: A Ray of Hope in Treating COVID-19

Glycyrrhiza glabra Linn (licorice) has been widely studied because of the possible ethnopharmacological benefit. It was among the essential Ayurvedic medicines studied for immunomodulatory, antiviral, antibacterial, antioxidant, hepato-protective activities. Nowadays, licorice’s root parts have been evaluated to contain numerous bioactive components responsible for the treatment of respiratory tract infections and influenza-like illnesses. Most importantly, several investigations have now assessed the multiple mechanisms by which these biomolecules could attack the essential proteins and enzymes responsible for SARS-CoV-2 cellular entry and interaction. Our findings gathered that the metabolites of Glycyrrhiza glabra could interfere with COVID-19 cellular entrance and replication by blocking all five key proteins and enzymes essential for the survival and attachment of the virus. In addition to their ability to neutralise, the inflammatory cytokines storm reaction following the COVID-19 viral infection. This review was designed to digest the potential pharmacological importance of Glycyrrhiza glabra and its likeness in combating the pandemic COVID-19.

Identification of COVID-19 severity biomarkers based on feature selection on single-cell RNA-Seq data of CD8+ T cells.

The global outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has become a major public health problem. COVID-19 virus infection triggers a complex immune response. CD8+ T cells, in particular, play an essential role in controlling the severity of the disease. However, the mechanism of the regulatory role of CD8+ T cells on COVID-19 remains poorly investigated. In this study, single-cell gene expression profiles from three CD8+ T cell subtypes (effector, memory, and naive T cells) were downloaded. Each cell subtype included three disease states, namely, acute COVID-19, convalescent COVID-19, and unexposed individuals. The profiles on each cell subtype were individually analyzed in the same way. Irrelevant features in the profiles were first excluded by the Boruta method. The remaining features for each CD8+ T cells subtype were further analyzed by Max-Relevance and Min-Redundancy, Monte Carlo feature selection, and light gradient boosting machine methods to obtain three feature lists. These lists were then brought into the incremental feature selection method to determine the optimal features for each cell subtype. Their corresponding genes may be latent biomarkers to determine COVID-19 severity. Genes, such as ZFP36, DUSP1, TCR, and IL7R, can be confirmed to play an immune regulatory role in COVID-19 infection and recovery. The results of functional enrichment analysis revealed that these important genes may be associated with immune functions, such as response to cAMP, response to virus, T cell receptor complex, T cell activation, and T cell differentiation. This study further set up different gene expression pattens, represented by classification rules, on three states of COVID-19 and constructed several efficient classifiers to distinguish COVID-19 severity. The findings of this study provided new insights into the biological processes of CD8+ T cells in regulating the immune response.

The Spectrum of Pulmonary Histomorphology Changes in COVID-19 Cases

Abstract Introduction/Objective Pulmonary specimens following COVID-19 virus infection demonstrate a spectrum of pulmonary histomorphology. Six patients with a history of COVID-19 infection are summarized in this review. The purpose of our study is to elucidate any possible correlations between clinical, laboratory, radiographic, and pathologic findings in COVID-19 patients. Further, we aim to characterize both non-specific and specific histomorphology and cytomorphology in COVID-19 patients. Methods/Case Report Six patients with known COVID-19 infection and lung biopsies/resections are identified. A chart review is performed to collect clinical histories, the results of COVID-19 PCR testing, radiographic impressions, pathologic interpretations of histology, and clinical outcomes. Information is summarized and tabulated. Results (if a Case Study enter NA) The most common, non-specific histological findings are focal/diffuse acute lung injury, organizing lung injury, or a combination of both patterns. Unique features of COVID-19 infection are identified in three cases, which illustrate viral cytopathic changes within hyperplastic pneumocytes. These include basophilic, vacuolated, granular cytoplasm and variably sized cytoplasmic/nuclear inclusions. Virus-loaded pneumocytes are typically identified in the organizing phase, and rarely in the acute lung injury phase. Immunohistochemical staining of anti-nuclear capsule antibody with appropriate controls shows focal positive staining in one case. SARS-CoV-2 PCR is positive in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue, while a serum PCR assay is negative. Conclusion The severity of clinical symptoms and clinical outcome are unrelated to the degree of lung involvement. Viral cytopathic changes are identified in three cases, with these specific findings associated with the organizing phase of lung injury, and either concurrent PCR positivity or positive immunohistochemical staining.

ԼՅԱՐԴԱՅԻՆ ԴՐՍԵՎՈՐՈՒՄՆԵՐԸ COVID-19 ՎԻՐՈՒՍԱՅԻՆ ՎԱՐԱԿԻ ԴԵՊՔՈՒՄ ԵՎ ՌԵՄԴԵՍԻՎԻՐԻ ԱԶԴԵՑՈՒԹՅՈՒՆԸ ԼՅԱՐԴԻ ՖՈՒՆԿՑԻԱՅԻ ՎՐԱ ԱՅԴ ՀԻՎԱՆԴՆԵՐԻ ՇՐՋԱՆՈՒՄ

COVID-19 is associated with elevation of liver biochemistries in 14% -76% of patients. Numerous mechanisms have been hypothesized to explain the pathogenesis of liver injury associated with COVID-19, such as direct cytotoxicity due to virus replication in the liver. Various drugs used in the management of COVID-19 are potential hepatotoxins, in 15.2% of Remdesivir treated patients. Based on the data from randomized controlled trials, Remdesivir was approved by the FDA for treatment of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. At the same time FDA has cautioned about the incidence of elevated liver enzymes in this category of patients. According to the above, the aim of our study is to reveal liver functional changes in patients with COVID-19 viral infection and assess Remdesivir influence on liver enzymes level in hospitalized patients. For this purpose we studied 58 cases of COVID-19 patients, who were treated in A.L. Mikaelyan Institute of Surgery. We concluded, that in patients with 15% -25% affected lung tissue (CT-scan data ), treatment with Remdesivir led to mild changes (in normal ranges) of alanine and aspartate aminotransferase level, which we can ascribe to continued hepatocytes injury due to COVID infection. Despite this, treatment with Remdesivir of COVID-19 patients should be continued with evaluation of baseline liver function and closely monitored liver enzymes, level in hospitalized patients, avoiding the use of other hepatotoxic drugs.

SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) EXAMINATION USES ANTIGEN SWAB FOR COMPANY’S EMPLOYEES IN SURABAYA ON JULY – AUGUST 2021

Background of the problem: Since 2020, all the countries in the world has been rocked by Covid-19 (Sars-Cov-2) pandemic. Since July 2021, Indonesia became Covid-19 epicentrum with the highest mortality 2.048 people in the world on 10th August 2021. Covid-19 supporting diagnosis checkup uses RT-PCR and Antigen rapid test, this was based on the Indonesian Health Minister instruction about the uses of antigen test for 2019 Corona Virus Disease checkup. Method: This research uses cross sectional, retrospective analytic study by seeing the data that was taken from SARS-Cov-2 antigen rapid test from some location of companies in Surabaya. The swab data is from Sentra Medika Clinic Surabaya by using nasopharyngeal and nasal antigen SARS-CoV-2 rapid test kit (immunochromatography method). Result: The main data of labor’s characteristics is 6033 people. The highest number was on July to August 2021 on the age range of 30-39 years old (39,70%), meanwhile at the age of 60-69 years old is 0,45%. In the case of Covid-19 virus infection, the highest number of positive antigen was at the age range of 30-39 years old was 64 people (41,30%), whereas 2 people (1,30%) were at the age range of 60-69 years old. At the age more than 60, the number of case is not many but the statistic analytic result shows that age influences P<0,05 (P 0,043) Covid-19 Antigen swab result. From the research was found that the result of positive Antigen swab for man was 143 people (92,30%), this was higher than the woman’s, 12 people (7,70%). The statistical analysis shows that gender does not influence P>0,05 (P 0,260) Covid-19 Antigen swab test result. The case spike happened on July 2021, 153 people were positive of Antigen swab test: 141 people were men (92,16%) and 12 people were women (7,84%). On August 2021, 2 men were positive (100%). Conclusion: The result of the research in July 2021 shows that the highest numbers of labor are at the age of 30-39 years old. The risk of Covid-19 infection mostly at men. Whereas Covid-19 infection risk is at the age of 60-69 years old are in small amount. Age influences the result of Covid-19 Antigen swab test. Meanwhile, gender does not influence the result of Covid-19 Antigen swab test.

Severe myalgia may develop in COVID-19 virus infection: A Case Report

Severe myalgia may develop in COVID-19 virus infection: A Case Report

Diagnostik Klinis Infeksi SARS-CoV-2 dengan Metode Apusan

COVID-19 has become a pandemic and has caused concern for people worldwide. The rapid spread of the disease requires health care providers and health workers to be able to diagnose precisely, quickly, and accurately to speed up the stages of treatment. Reviews and procedures for implementing clinical diagnostics of SARS-CoV-2 have not been widely reported. This study aimed to analyze the differences in diagnostic procedures for COVID-19 virus infection using the smear method at the Graha Medika Clinic. Observational descriptive research was conducted in July 2022. The research took place at the Graha Medika Clinic by screening patients who took the COVID-19 examination using the smear method (antigen swab, PCR swab, and rapid antigen). The study results obtained that one (10%) out of ten people infected with COVID-19 were on the antigen swab examination. There are differences in clinical diagnostics of COVID-19 infection using the smear method, namely in the antigen swab, the test time tends to be fast compared to PCR but is somewhat less accurate; rapid antigen only detects viruses that have taken place acutely with low accuracy while PCR is used as an accurate diagnostic by identifying proteins and viral glycans molecularly, has excellent accuracy but requires experts and a long time. The clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 infection using the smear method is currently adequate. The recommended examination method for the COVID-19 examination is carried out in stages, starting from rapid antigen, antigen swab, and PCR swab. PCR swab examination is the gold standard for detecting viral genetic material.

Bronchodilator reversibility testing in long-term cough and dyspnea after Covid-19 viral infection: a trigger for asthma?

Objective: This study aims to investigate the presence of underlying chronic airway disease in individuals with chronic cough and dyspnea lasting longer than eight weeks and who had previously Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and had no known lung disease. Methods: A total of 151 patients admitted to the respiratory diseases outpatient room with the complaint of cough and/or dyspnea that persisted for at least eight weeks following COVID-19 infection were accrued to the study. Demographic characteristics, smoking history, the severity of lung involvement on chest computed tomography in the acute phase of Covid-19 infection, and bronchodilator reversibility test results were recorded. Smoking history and forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) were compared. Results: FEV1 increase ≥ 200 ml was observed in 40 (26.5%) patients. In 24 (15.9%) patients, an increase in FEV1 was found to be 200 ml and above, and the percentage of FEV1 was 12% or more. While 14 (9.3%) patients were diagnosed with asthma, 13 (8.6%) patients were diagnosed with nonreversible airflow obstruction (NRAO), and 1 (0.7%) patient was diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Conclusions: COVID-19 infection may play a vital role in initiating asthma pathogenesis. It should be kept in mind that viral infection-related asthma may be the underlying cause of prolonged cough and dyspnea after COVID-19 infection.

Impact of COVID-19 Viral Infection in Cancer Patients on Post-Treatment Morbidity and Mortality

Impact of COVID-19 Viral Infection in Cancer Patients on Post-Treatment Morbidity and Mortality

Estimating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 deaths using a Markov switching-volatility model combined with heavy-tailed distributions for South Africa

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19 virus) infection exposed the unpreparedness of African countries to health-related issues, South Africa included. Africa recorded more than 211 853 deaths as a consequence of Covid-19. When rare and deadly diseases require urgent hospitalisation strikes, governments and healthcare providers are usually caught unprepared, resulting in huge loss of lives. Usually, at the beginning of such pandemics, there is no rich data for health practitioners and academics to be able to forecast the number of patients or deaths related to the pandemic. This study aims to predict the number of deaths associated with Covid-19 infection. With the availability of the number of deaths on a daily basis, the results stemming from this study are important to inform and plan health policy.MethodsThis study uses the daily number of deaths due to Covid-19 infection. Exploratory data analysis reveals that the data exhibits non-normality, three structural breaks and volatility clustering characteristics. The Markov switching (MS)-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type model combined with heavy-tailed distributions is fitted to the returns of the data. Using available daily reported Covid-19-related deaths up until 26 August 2021, we report 10-day ahead forecasts of deaths. All forecasts are compared to the actual observed values in the forecasting period.ResultsThe Anderson–Darling Goodness of fit test confirms that the fitted models are adequate for the data. The Kupiec likelihood ratio test and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used to select the robust model at different risk levels. At 95% the MS(3)-GARCH(1,1) combined with Pearson’s type IV distribution (PIVD) is the best model. This indicates that the proposed best-fitting model is reasonable and can be used for predicting the daily number of deaths due to Covid-19.ConclusionThe MS(3)-GARCH(1,1)-PIVD model provides a reliable and accurate method for predicting the minimum number of death due to Covid-19. The accuracy of the proposed model will assist policymakers, academics and health practitioners in forecasting the volatility of future health-related deaths in which the predictability of volatility plays an integral role in health risk management.