Vehicle Holdings Research Articles

Forecasting vehicle holdings and usage with a disaggregate choice model

AbstractA case study in which a three‐stage choice model of Canadian household vehicle holdings and usage is used to generate short‐run forecasts of changes in household vehicle usage and gasoline consumption in response to a range of energy‐related policies. The objectives of this case study are to (1) demonstrate the application of disaggregate choice modelling methods to the generation of policy‐relevant forecasts of travel behaviour; (2) draw implications from this forecasting exercise concerning the likely impacts of various energy‐related policies; and (3) assess some of the strengths and weaknesses of the current state‐of‐the‐art of forecasting with disaggregate choice models, using the presented study as a case in point.

Analysis of Vehicle Holding and Cancellation Strategies in Bulk Arrival, Bulk Service Queues

A general class of vehicle dispatching strategies for bulk arrival, bulk service queues is examined which consist of some combination of vehicle holding and cancellation strategies. The moments of the length of the queue at vehicle departure instants and in continuous time are solved for exactly using transform methods. Relationships between the moments of the waiting time and queue length distributions are developed without further use of transforms, resulting in an exact expression for the expected waiting time and an approximation for the variance. A simple approach for calculating the roots of a particular function, needed to find the moments of the queue length distribution, is presented and used to demonstrate that this task can be accomplished very easily. Finally, the model is used to compare alternative vehicle dispatching strategies in terms of costs and levels of service.

Forecasting automobile demand using disaggregate choice models

This paper presents a simulation model of the American automobile market. The simulation model combines a disaggregate model of household automobile number and type choice with an econometric model of used vehicle scrappage and simple models of new car supply. For fixed vehicle designs, consumer and producer interactions determine new car sales, used car scrappage and consumer vehicle holdings. The model allows automobiles to be highly differentiated and consumers to be heterogeneous. Short-run equilibrium is defined as supply equal to demand for every vehicle type during each market period. The automobile stock then evolves slowly as new vehicles are added and old vehicles are removed during each period. An empirical application of the simulation model with 12 consumer groups and 131 vehicle types is used to forecast automobile holdings. A base case scenario is run for 1978–1984 and compared with the observed market behavior during this period. Several other simulations are then run comparing different gasoline price scenarios with the base case for 1984–1990.

Analysis of equilibrium automobile holdings in Israel with aggregate discrete choice models

Models of household vehicle ownership decisions do not suffice as a basis for forecasting the size and composition of aggregate vehicle holdings. Forecasting applications require that such models be imbedded in systems describing the operation of the automobile market. This paper presents a new model of short run equilibrium in the automobile market. The short run is a period within which new car designs and prices are fixed but used car prices adjust competitively to market forces. The magnitude and mix of new car sales, the extent of used car scrappage and the composition of used car holdings are determined in equilibrium with used car prices. An econometric version of the market model has been estimated on Israeli data and applied to analyze the impact of vehicle tax policy on automobile holdings in Israel. The paper describes this application.

A Behavioral Approach to Modelling Household Motor Vehicle Ownership and Applications to Aggregate Policy Analysis

A unified approach to the modelling of household motor vehicle ownership level, consumption of vehicle holdings, and vehicle use is described. The model system is founded on a utility theory of household behavior, and is implemented through probabilistic discrete choice models estimated from cross-sectional samples of households. Following the introduction of the model, an application involving forecasts of US motor vehicle sales through the mid-1980s is presented.

Vehicle choice models: Review of previous studies and directions for further research

Vehicle choice models are reviewed and assessed. Based upon the evaluation of previous models, directions for further vehicle choice model development are suggested. Possible research options include: (1) development of joint vehicle ownership, location choice models, (2) development of improved models of vehicle purchase decisions, (3) future development of vehicle holdings models, (4) exploration of the effects of vehicle type decisions on vehicle level (number of vehicles) decisions, and (5) development of dynamic models of vehicle choice.

An empirical analysis of household choice among motor vehicles

This paper presents an econometric model explaining the make, model and vintage composition of individual household motor vehicle holdings. We view the household as yearly evaluating its current holdings of vehicles and updating these as desired. The utility of any vehicle, or vehicle pair, to a household is assumed a function of vehicle seating capacity, luggage capacity, weight, acceleration time, noise level, scrappage probability, price, operating cost and of a search-transactions cost associated with entering the vehicle market. Household size, age, education, income, number of workers and residential location condition the utility function. A multinomial logit model probabilistically describes each household's choice among vehicle alternatives. The empirical analysis is based on a random sample of households drawn from a nationwide rotating consumer panel. Two models are estimated, one explaining vehicle choices in households holding a single vehicle, the other explaining the composition of holdings in two-vehicle households. Among the many empirical findings, one prominent result is that each household has an optimal vehicle seating capacity which varies directly with household size. We find that most aspects of vehicle performances have little effect on choices but, counter-intuitively, sluggish vehicles appear strongly preferred to quick ones. Vehicle price, operating costs and transactions costs are all important determinants of vehicle utility but the influence of price and operating cost varies considerably among socioeconomic and demographic groupings.